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40K DECIDED VOTER ‐ LEANERS INCLUDED ONTARIO HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD DECIDED AND LEANERS Total GTA Central East Southwest North <40k 40k ‐ <60K 60k ‐ <100k 100k+ Kids No Kids The Ontario The The New Some other Would not Don't ABCDEFGHI J KLMNOPQ Base: Decided Voters ‐ Leaners Included 1487 586 169 187 425 118 329 241 371 320 400 1087 524 487 400 76 ‐‐ Weighted 1433 677 112 175 384 86 359 256 334 262 370 1064 493 485 378 78 ‐‐ The Ontario Liberal Party 493 273 35 55 97 33 118 82 129 95 138 355 493 ‐‐‐‐‐ 34% 40% 31% 32% 25% 38% 33% 32% 39% 36% 37% 33% 100% ‐‐‐‐‐ DD* MNO * The Progressive Conservative Party 485 219 41 74 133 19 95 80 109 110 109 375 ‐ 485 ‐‐‐‐ 34% 32% 36% 42% 35% 22% 26% 31% 33% 42% 30% 35% ‐ 100% ‐‐‐‐ E E AE E * FGH LNO * The New Democratic Party 378 143 29 41 130 34 118 82 75 43 95 283 ‐‐378 ‐‐‐ 26% 21% 26% 24% 34% 39% 33% 32% 23% 16% 26% 27% ‐‐100% ‐‐‐ AC ABC* HI HI LMO * Some other party 78427 4 231 281120142750 ‐‐‐78 ‐‐ 5% 6% 7% 2% 6% 1% 8% 4% 6% 5% 7% 5% ‐‐‐100% ‐‐ EE E* LMN* ‐ Column Proportions: Columns Tested (5%): A/B/C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K,L/M/N/O/P/Q Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) ‐ Column Means: Columns Tested (5%): A/B/C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K,L/M/N/O/P/Q Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) Table of Contents 3x. Which of the following parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support next or second? ONTARIO HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD DECIDED AND LEANERS Total GTA Central East Southwest North <40k 40k ‐ <60K 60k ‐ <100k 100k+ Kids No Kids The Ontario The The New Some other Would not Don't ABCDEFGHI J KLMNOPQ Base: Those with first choice and open to 1056 390 125 142 307 90 242 173 255 223 298 758 345 316 262 41 92 ‐ second choice Weighted 1010 456 85 128 276 66 262 179 228 179 285 725 305 315 233 41 116 ‐ The New Democratic Party 255 122 20 25 75 12 60 37 73 47 77 178 147 92 ‐ 12 4 ‐ 25% 27% 24% 20% 27% 18% 23% 21% 32% 26% 27% 25% 48% 29% ‐ 30% 3% ‐ * * G MNP NP NP* N* The Liberal Party 160788 1945103634312842118‐ 60 85 8 7 ‐ 16% 17% 10% 15% 16% 15% 14% 19% 14% 16% 15% 16% ‐ 19% 36% 19% 6% ‐ ** LP LMP LP* L* The Progressive Conservative Party 117 58 10 15 23 11 28 27 34 16 39 78 55 ‐ 47 9 6 ‐ 12% 13% 12% 12% 8% 16% 11% 15% 15% 9% 14% 11% 18% ‐ 20% 21% 5% ‐ *D* MP MP MP* M* Some other party 91291016324 301220202368113340 ‐ 6 ‐ 9% 6% 12% 12% 12% 6% 12% 7% 9% 11% 8% 9% 4% 11% 17% ‐ 5% ‐ *AA* L LMOP * * Don't know/Undecided 388 168 36 53 101 29 107 69 69 67 104 284 92 130 61 12 93 ‐ 38% 37% 43% 42% 36% 44% 41% 38% 30% 37% 36% 39% 30% 41% 26% 30% 80% ‐ **H LN * LMNO* ‐ Column Proportions: Columns Tested (5%): A/B/C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K,L/M/N/O/P/Q Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) ‐ Column Means: Columns Tested (5%): A/B/C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K,L/M/N/O/P/Q Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) Table of Contents 4. Some people say that the Liberal government under Premier Kathleen Wynne has done a good job and deserves to be re‐elected during the next provincial election. Other people say that it is time for another provincial party to take over and run the province. Which of these statements is closest to your point of view? ONTARIO HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD DECIDED AND LEANERS Total GTA Central East Southwest North <40k 40k ‐ <60K 60k ‐ <100k 100k+ Kids No Kids The Ontario The The New Some other Would not Don't ABCDEFGHI J KLMNOPQ Base: All Respondents 1772 696 203 221 508 142 414 281 425 354 468 1304 524 487 400 76 92 193 Weighted 1772 833 142 213 478 106 475 302 392 293 448 1324 493 485 378 78 116 223 Time for another provincial party to take over 1130 472 100 141 348 69 299 190 252 178 280 850 99 440 294 65 78 154 64% 57% 71% 66% 73% 65% 63% 63% 64% 61% 62% 64% 20% 91% 78% 83% 67% 69% AAA LNPQ LQ LPQ* L* L Wynne Government has done a good job and 642 361 42 72 130 37 176 112 139 114 168 474 394 45 84 13 38 69 deserves re‐election 36% 43% 29% 34% 27% 35% 37% 37% 36% 39% 38% 36% 80% 9% 22% 17% 33% 31% BCD MNOPQ M * MO* MNO ‐ Column Proportions: Columns Tested (5%): A/B/C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K,L/M/N/O/P/Q Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) ‐ Column Means: Columns Tested (5%): A/B/C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K,L/M/N/O/P/Q Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) Table of Contents 5. Which of the provincial party leaders do you think would make the best Premier of Ontario? ONTARIO HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD DECIDED AND LEANERS Total GTA Central East Southwest North <40k 40k ‐ <60K 60k ‐ <100k 100k+ Kids No Kids The Ontario The The New Some other Would not Don't ABCDEFGHI J KLMNOPQ Base: All Respondents 1772 696 203 221 508 142 414 281 425 354 468 1304 524 487 400 76 92 193 Weighted 1772 833 142 213 478 106 475 302 392 293 448 1324 493 485 378 78 116 223 Tim Hudak 545 261 46 80 130 27 110 105 116 89 119 426 43 359 45 14 27 57 31% 31% 32% 38% 27% 26% 23% 35% 30% 31% 27% 32% 9% 74% 12% 18% 23% 26% DE F F LNOPQ L* LN* LN Kathleen Wynne 588 303 49 67 132 36 154 88 134 117 157 431 369 40 53 16 34 77 33% 36% 35% 32% 28% 34% 32% 29% 34% 40% 35% 33% 75% 8% 14% 21% 30% 34% D G MNOPQ M M* MN* MN Andrea Horwath 514 214 36 52 176 37 166 92 114 65 130 385 61 56 266 32 35 65 29% 26% 25% 24% 37% 35% 35% 31% 29% 22% 29% 29% 12% 12% 70% 41% 30% 29% ABC AC I I LMOPQ LM* LM* LM Mike Schreiner 125551113405 451728224382212915162024 7% 7% 8% 6% 8% 5% 9% 5% 7% 7% 10% 6% 4% 6% 4% 21% 17% 11% K LMN* LMN* LN ‐ Column Proportions: Columns Tested (5%): A/B/C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K,L/M/N/O/P/Q Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) ‐ Column Means: Columns Tested (5%): A/B/C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K,L/M/N/O/P/Q Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) Table of Contents 6_1. [Provide the most transparent, open and accountable government to Ontarians] Which of the following parties and leaders do you think would be most likely to do the following: ONTARIO HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD DECIDED AND LEANERS Total GTA Central East Southwest North <40k 40k ‐ <60K 60k ‐ <100k 100k+ Kids No Kids The Ontario The The New Some other Would not Don't ABCDEFGHI J KLMNOPQ Base: All Respondents 1772 696 203 221 508 142 414 281 425 354 468 1304 524 487 400 76 92 193 Weighted 1772 833 142 213 478 106 475 302 392 293 448 1324 493 485 378 78 116 223 Provide the most transparent, open and accountable government to Ontarians Premier Kathleen Wynne and the Liberal Party 520 275 44 56 113 33 133 81 121 95 125 395 332 35 39 5 27 81 29% 33% 31% 26% 24% 31% 28% 27% 31% 32% 28% 30% 67% 7% 10% 6% 24% 36% D MNOPQ * MNO* MNO Tim Hudak and the Progressive Conservative 501 237 46 71 120 27 109 90 108 92 125 376 36 352 17 12 32 52 Party 28% 28% 33% 34% 25% 25% 23% 30% 28% 32% 28% 28% 7% 73% 4% 16% 28% 23% D F LNOPQ LN* LN* LN Andrea Horwath and the New Democratic 573 242 40 60 190 40 173 102 125 77 148 425 97 77 292 10 36 62 Party 32% 29% 28% 28% 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 26% 33% 32% 20% 16% 77% 13% 31% 28% ABC I LMOPQ * LMO* LMO Mike Schreiner and the Green Party 178 79 12 25 56 7 60 29 37 29 51 128 28 21 30 50 21 29 10% 9% 8% 12% 12% 6% 13% 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% 6% 4% 8% 65% 18% 13% M LMNPQ* LMN* LM ‐ Column Proportions: Columns Tested (5%): A/B/C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K,L/M/N/O/P/Q Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) ‐ Column Means: Columns Tested (5%): A/B/C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K,L/M/N/O/P/Q Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) Table of Contents 6_2. [Provide the most effective opposition, holding the government to account] Which of the following parties and leaders do you think would be most likely to do the following: ONTARIO HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD DECIDED AND LEANERS Total GTA Central East Southwest North <40k 40k ‐ <60K 60k ‐ <100k 100k+ Kids No Kids The Ontario The The New Some other Would not Don't ABCDEFGHI J KLMNOPQ Base: All Respondents ‐ Exclude Premier 1381 530 148 180 414 107 322 218 332 277 356 1025 362 416 342 63 69 129 Kathleen Wynne and the Liberal Party Weighted 1372 621 105 174 392 79 361 231 301 232 327 1045 331 420 318 64 86 152 Tim Hudak and the Progressive Conservative 479 240 37 65 118 18 108 76 100 98 114 364 89 241 48 11 38 52 Party 35% 39% 36% 37% 30% 23% 30% 33% 33% 42% 35% 35% 27% 57% 15% 17% 45% 34% DE E * F N LNOQ * LNO* NO* Andrea Horwath and the New Democratic 766 338 58 96 223 51 205 137 171 122 181 585 226 157 258 21 34 69 Party 56% 54% 55% 55% 57% 64% 57% 60% 57% 53% 55% 56% 68% 37% 81% 33% 40% 46% * MOPQ LMOPQ *** Mike Schreiner and the Green Party 127 43 10 13 51 10 48 18 31 12 32 96 17 22 12 32 14 31 9% 7% 9% 7% 13% 13% 13% 8% 10% 5% 10% 9% 5% 5% 4% 51% 16% 20% A* I LMNPQ* LMN* LMN* ‐ Column Proportions: Columns Tested (5%): A/B/C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K,L/M/N/O/P/Q Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) ‐ Column Means: Columns Tested (5%): A/B/C/D/E,F/G/H/I,J/K,L/M/N/O/P/Q Minimum Base: 30 (**), Small Base: 100 (*) Table of Contents 6_3.
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