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POST-ELECTION REPORT “Ontario Election” by Knehcsg Is Licensed Under 2.0 CC BY-SA POST-ELECTION REPORT “Ontario Election” by knehcsg is licensed under 2.0 CC BY-SA METHODOLOGY CONTACT INFORMATION The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on In Ottawa: June 28th-30th, and July 14-16th 2018 among a sample of 3005 adults, Quito Maggi, President 18 years of age or older, living in the electoral districts of Don Valley East, [email protected] Don Valley West, Etobicoke North, Mississauga-Erin Mills, Mississauga– In Toronto: Malton, Mississauga Centre, Ottawa South, Scarborough–Guildwood, Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President Scarborough Centre, and Scarborough Southwest, as well as 1846 Muslims [email protected] in the province. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviews on landlines and Find us online at: cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population • www.mainstreetresearch.ca in these ten ridings. • twitter.com/MainStResearch • facebook.com/mainstreetresearch The margin of error for the poll is +/- 1.78% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. The Canadian Muslim Vote: Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding. Ali Manek, Executive Director, [email protected] ABOUT MAINSTREET Hussein Allidina, Board Member, With 20 years of political experience in all three levels of government, [email protected] President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on international public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections, and the Alabama special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is a member of the World Association for Public Opinion Research and meets international and Canadian publication standards. ABOUT THE CANADIAN-MUSLIM VOTE The Canadian-Muslim Vote is a national, non-profit, non-partisan organization with the aim of increasing the participation of Canadian Muslims within the democratic process. THE CANADIAN MUSLIM VOTE: Post Election Report Did you vote in the recent 2018 Provincial Election between Doug Ford, Kathleen Wynne, Andrea Horwath and Mike Schreiner (Muslims in the ten ridings compared to all Muslims in Ontario)? And, did you vote in the recent 2018 Provincial Election between Doug Ford, Kathleen Wynne, Andrea Horwath and Mike Schreiner (Muslims in the ten ridings compared to all Muslims in Ontario)? Voter turnout in this election was 58% 1.00 0.75 69.4% Option 79% Yes 0.50 No Value Not Sure Not Eligible 0.25 15.4% 8.8% 4.1% 3.9% 8.4% 11.1% 0.00 Muslim Voters in Muslim Voters the ten ridings in all Ontario* Category *n=1846, survey conducted July 14-16th, 2018 THE CANADIAN MUSLIM VOTE: Post Election Report 16 Did you vote in the recent 2018 Provincial Election between Doug Ford, Kathleen Wynne, Andrea Horwath and Mike Schreiner uestion(Muslims 5 And, in the did you ten vote ridings)? in the recent 2018 Provincial Elec tion between Doug Ford, Kathleen Wynne, Andrea Horwath and Mike Schreiner? 8 % 4 % 9 % 79 % Yes No Response Not Sure Not Eligible Gender Age Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Yes 79% 80.3% 77.8% 58.4% 84.2% 88.5% 88.6% No 8.8% 8.2% 9.3% 13.2% 8.6% 6.7% 5.6% Not Sure 3.9% 3.3% 4.4% 5.5% 4.7% 2.1% 2.8% Not Eligible 8.4% 8.2% 8.5% 22.8% 2.5% 2.7% 3.1% Unweighted Frequency 3005 1259 1746 273 368 863 1501 Weighted Frequency 3005 1477 1528 844 757 825 580 THE CANADIAN MUSLIM VOTE: Post Election Report 10 Did you vote in the recent 2018 Provincial Election between Doug Ford, Kathleen Wynne, Andrea Horwath and Mike Schreiner? iding Total on alley East on alley West Etobicoe North MississaugaErin Mills MississaugaMalton Yes 79% 85.5% 89% 77.8% 79% 71.5% No 8.8% 9.2% 4.5% 9.5% 8.4% 10.7% Not Sure 3.9% 1.8% 2.6% 3% 0.2% 8.1% Not Eligible 8.4% 3.4% 3.9% 9.6% 12.4% 9.8% Unweighted Frequency 3005 286 325 273 313 315 Weighted Frequency 3005 277 257 289 328 391 iding Total Mississauga entre ttawa South ScarboroughGuildwood Scarborough entre Scarborough Southwest Yes 79% 77.7% 80.6% 76.6% 75.6% 82.7% No 8.8% 11.1% 7.4% 7.6% 10.3% 7% Not Sure 3.9% 3.8% 5.4% 6.6% 2.7% 3.4% Not Eligible 8.4% 7.4% 6.6% 9.2% 11.4% 7% Unweighted Frequency 3005 289 319 291 331 263 Weighted Frequency 3005 302 270 288 372 231 THE CANADIAN MUSLIM VOTE: Post Election Report 11 The margin o error or the oll is +- 1.78% at the 95% conidence leel. Margins o error areDid higher you in each vote subsamle. in the 2014 Provincial Election Totalsbetween may not add Kathleen u 100% due to rounding. Wynne, Tim Hudak, Andrea Horwath and Mike Schreiner? uestion 1 Did you vote in the 201 Provincial Election between Kath leen Wynne, im Hudak, Andrea Horwath and Mike Schreiner? 12 % 7 % 14 % 67 % Yes No Response Not Sure Not Eligible Gender Age Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Yes 66.8% 67.2% 66.3% 45.2% 71.1% 78.6% 75.6% No 14.2% 13.8% 14.6% 17.5% 14.9% 11.6% 12.2% Not Sure 7% 5.7% 8.3% 5.4% 8.1% 6.7% 8.5% Not Eligible 12% 13.3% 10.7% 31.9% 5.9% 3.2% 3.6% Unweighted Frequency 3005 1259 1746 273 368 863 1501 Weighted Frequency 3005 1477 1528 844 757 825 580 2 THE CANADIAN MUSLIM VOTE: Post Election Report Did you vote in the 2014 Provincial Election between Kathleen Wynne, Tim Hudak, Andrea Horwath and Mike Schreiner? iding Total on alley East on alley West Etobicoe North MississaugaErin Mills MississaugaMalton Yes 66.8% 68.9% 83.9% 65.2% 60.4% 57.9% No 14.2% 16.4% 6.1% 14.3% 15.9% 14% Not Sure 7% 6.4% 2.4% 8.4% 7.6% 11.5% Not Eligible 12% 8.3% 7.5% 12.1% 16.1% 16.6% Unweighted Frequency 3005 286 325 273 313 315 Weighted Frequency 3005 277 257 289 328 391 iding Total Mississauga entre ttawa South ScarboroughGuildwood Scarborough entre Scarborough Southwest Yes 66.8% 61.1% 78.5% 62.9% 61% 78.8% No 14.2% 19.3% 10.9% 16.2% 16.1% 10.1% Not Sure 7% 8.8% 2.9% 8.2% 6.7% 4.5% Not Eligible 12% 10.9% 7.8% 12.7% 16.2% 6.5% Unweighted Frequency 3005 289 319 291 331 263 Weighted Frequency 3005 302 270 288 372 231 THE CANADIAN MUSLIM VOTE: Post Election Report 3 Thinking about why you voted for your choice in 2018, what was the main reason for your decision? uestion And thinking about why you voted or your choice in 2018, what was the main reason or your decision? 20 % 35 % 26 % 20 % Local Candidate Party Response Party Leader Policies Gender Age Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ ocal andidate 19.9% 18% 21.8% 24.2% 17.5% 16.1% 22.3% arty 25.9% 28% 23.8% 26.8% 23.2% 26.3% 27.4% arty eader 19.6% 18.7% 20.4% 17.2% 18.6% 20.9% 22.3% olicies 34.6% 35.4% 33.9% 31.9% 40.7% 36.6% 27.9% Unweighted Frequency 2864 1198 1666 210 359 840 1455 Weighted Frequency 2864 1408 1456 804 721 786 552 THE CANADIAN MUSLIM VOTE: Post Election Report 14 Thinking about why you voted for your choice in 2018, what was the main reason for your decision? iding Total on alley East on alley West Etobicoe North MississaugaErin Mills MississaugaMalton ocal andidate 19.9% 19.1% 21.8% 16.9% 15.2% 16.3% arty 25.9% 26.4% 26.4% 31.6% 32.4% 23.1% arty eader 19.6% 20.9% 14.2% 26.4% 16.5% 16.7% olicies 34.6% 33.6% 37.6% 25.2% 35.9% 43.9% Unweighted Frequency 3005 286 325 273 313 315 Weighted Frequency 3005 277 257 289 328 391 iding Total Mississauga entre ttawa South ScarboroughGuildwood Scarborough entre Scarborough Southwest ocal andidate 19.9% 16.6% 29.6% 22.7% 18.6% 26.6% arty 25.9% 27.5% 23% 24% 23.6% 20.5% arty eader 19.6% 17.6% 13% 25% 25.6% 18.5% olicies 34.6% 38.3% 34.4% 28.2% 32.2% 34.4% Unweighted Frequency 3005 289 319 291 331 263 Weighted Frequency 3005 302 270 288 372 231 THE CANADIAN MUSLIM VOTE: Post Election Report 15 2018 provincial election results compared with Muslim voting intentions 2018 provincial election results compared with Muslim voting intentions Overall 1.00 28.2% 26% 24.3% 0.75 Party Liberal, Wynne 37.5% 39.9% 41.7% PC, Ford 0.50 NDP, Horwath Value Green, Schreiner Not Sure 0.25 22.6% 19.2% 29.2% 6.1% 4.6% 2.6% 7% 8.7% 0.00 2.6% All Voters Muslim Voters in Muslim Voters the ten ridings in all Ontario* Category *n=1846, survey conducted July 14-16th, 2018 THE CANADIAN MUSLIM VOTE: Post Election Report 17 2018 provincial election results compared with Muslim voting intentions Don Valley East 1.00 30.7% 35.9% 0.75 Party Liberal, Wynne PC, Ford 0.50 38.3% 33.1% NDP, Horwath Value Green, Schreiner Not Sure 0.25 17.4% 27.4% 5% 2.5% 8.6% 0.00 1% All Voters Muslim Voters Category Don Valley West 1.00 38.9% 45.5% 0.75 Party Liberal, Wynne PC, Ford 0.50 NDP, Horwath Value 38.5% 29.3% Green, Schreiner Not Sure 0.25 17.6% 18.8% 4.9% 2.8% 0.00 1% 2.7% 18 All Voters Muslim Voters Category THE CANADIAN MUSLIM VOTE: Post Election Report 19 2018 provincial election results compared with Muslim voting intentions Etobicoke orth 1.00 18.2% 16% 0.75 Party Liberal, Wynne 52.5% 57.2% PC, Ford 0.50 NDP, Horwath Value Green, Schreiner Not Sure 0.25 25.4% 17.4% 4.2% 2.7% 5.2% 0.00 1.1% All Voters Muslim Voters Category MississaugaErin Mills 1.00 25.3% 28.5% 0.75 Party Liberal, Wynne 41.7% PC, Ford 0.50 40.3% * NDP, Horwath Value Green, Schreiner Not Sure 0.25 27.6% 21.6% 1.5% 2.7% 8.1% 0.00 2.7% 20 All Voters Muslim Voters Category THE CANADIAN MUSLIM VOTE: Post Election Report 21 2018 provincial election results compared with Muslim voting intentions MississaugaMalton 1.00 20.8% 26.7% 0.75 Party 39.1% Liberal, Wynne PC, Ford 0.50 43.1% NDP, Horwath
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