VIEWPOINT WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE RESEARCH What are the impacts? Amazon HQ2 and the Northern Virginia and D.C. markets Amazon plans to split its new HQ2 headquarters between Crystal City in Arlington, Virginia and Long Island City in Queens, New York. It anticipates creating 25,000 jobs and occupying 4 million sq. ft. of office space in each city over the next 10 years. This is a watershed development for the Washington, D.C. and Northern Virginia markets and it indicates the importance of walkable environments, quality access to transit and infrastructure for major employers. More importantly, it confirms the strength of the D.C. region’s talent. 19 NOVEMBER 2018 CBRE Research © 2018 CBRE Inc.| 1 VIEWPOINT WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE RESEARCH EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The key impacts on the Northern Virginia and D.C. markets are as follows: • Amazon’s 4 million-sq.-ft. requirement would account for 33% of Crystal City’s existing office inventory, and its 25,000 employees would comprise 11% of the D.C. region’s tech1 labor market. • The average annual wage for tech employees in the D.C. region is $106,500, which Amazon has announced it will well exceed at $150,000. • Amazon’s 25,000 employees would generate about 50,000 additional jobs in indirect industries and in retail, housing and services. This could jump to as many as 125,000 indirect jobs depending on the composition of Amazon employees, Amazon’s local spending and its employee spending patterns. • Office demand totaling 7 million sq. ft. could occur from indirect job growth. In 2017, Northern Virginia’s annual net absorption totaled 2.3 million sq. ft. (4.2 million sq. ft. for the Greater D.C. region). • As demand and rents in Crystal City rise, some businesses are likely to look for space and boost demand in other Northern Virginia submarkets. • Amazon employees most likely will live within a 30-minute transit commute from Crystal City, which includes access to most of downtown Washington, D.C., Arlington and Alexandria and parts of Fairfax County. • Expected wages of Amazon employees could support apartment rents of more than $3,750 per month. This is 57% higher than Northern Virginia effective rents and 20% higher than Washington, D.C. effective rents per unit. • Additional employment impacts could increase multifamily rental housing demand by 53,000 units in 10 years, which would constitute nearly 4% of the D.C. region’s multifamily supply. 19 NOVEMBER 2018 CBRE Research © 2018 CBRE Inc.| 2 VIEWPOINT WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE RESEARCH CORPORATIONS MOVING TO LIVE-WORK-PLAY ENVIRONMENTS Big employers like Amazon increasingly are seeking urban locations that feature walkable environments, access to public transportation and other transportation options like bike lanes and dock-less bikes and scooters. Crystal City has a dedicated Metro station with two lines, which combined have a train arriving every five minutes during peak commuting hours for just a 12-minute ride to downtown Washington, D.C. CRYSTRAL CITY STATION RUSH HOUR SERVICE Source: CBRE, Q4 2018; WMATA The D.C. region has a history of major companies locating or expanding near Metro stations: • Capital One recently built a 940,000-sq.-ft. headquarters steps away from the McLean Station in Tysons. • Nestle USA has leased 250,000 sq. ft. of office space within walking distance of the Rosslyn Station in Arlington. • Marriott International is relocating from a suburban campus to 785,000 sq. ft. of office space in downtown Bethesda, three blocks away from the Bethesda Metro station. Other research2 indicates that corporate moves to walkable, transit-accessible locations is a national trend from which the D.C. region—especially Northern Virginia—will benefit. As nearby Tysons, Alexandria and the Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor expand and Arlington continues to develop, properties there will benefit. 19 NOVEMBER 2018 CBRE Research © 2018 CBRE Inc.| 3 VIEWPOINT WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE RESEARCH AMAZON HQ2 SIZE IN RELATION TO THE MARKET Four million sq. ft. of office space is a substantial demand on Crystal City and nearby Potomac Yard in Alexandria, but because Crystal City’s and Northern Virginia’s office vacancy rates are near 20% as of Q3 2018, 3 the 11 million-sq.-ft. Crystal City submarket and adjacent submarkets can absorb this demand over 10 years. In the long run, much of Amazon’s demand likely will be met with new construction and owner-occupied build-to-suit development. The employment infusion will represent a large share of the local economy. A total of 25,000 employees represents 1.7% of the Northern Virginia labor market, or 0.8% of the entire D.C. region’s labor market.4 A total of 25,000 employees represents 1.7% of the Northern Virginia labor ma rket… While not all Amazon employees will be in tech occupations—many will perform traditional business services like marketing and sales—25,000 employees equal 11% of the entire D.C. regional tech labor market. AMAZON HQ2 SIZE IN PROPORTION Source: CBRE, Q4 2018. 19 NOVEMBER 2018 CBRE Research © 2018 CBRE Inc.| 4 VIEWPOINT WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE RESEARCH LABOR MARKET EFFECTS: MULTIPLYING AMAZON’S JOBS The average annual tech employee salary in the D.C. region is $106,500. TECH WAGES IN THE D.C. REGION Occupation Average Annual Wage Web Developer $90,000 Network and Computer Systems Administrator $102,440 Computer and Mathematical Occupations (All) $106,550 Software Developers, Applications $116,250 Software Developers, Systems Software $125,010 Computer Scientist $125,520 Source: CBRE, Q4 2018; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. An infusion of new jobs to any region creates what economists call “multiplier effects.” When a company spends money to support its business—everything from hiring lawyers, paying utilities, hiring caterers and contracting for software—it indirectly creates additional jobs. Employees also create jobs by spending money in the local economy. Research suggests that the multiplier effect is between two and five jobs per tech employee. Research suggests that the multiplier effect is between two and five jobs per tech employee. U.C. Berkeley Professor Enrico Moretti5 suggests that because tech employees are highly paid and spend more on personal services, they create up to five jobs each. Other economic indicators suggest that the multiplier is closer to two. 19 NOVEMBER 2018 CBRE Research © 2018 CBRE Inc.| 5 VIEWPOINT WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE RESEARCH These secondary jobs likely include: • Technology workers providing services to Amazon. • Professional services such as specialized legal and financial services. • Employees of tech start-ups locating to the region to take advantage of the concentrated labor pool. • Technology infrastructure workers providing hardware and technology systems services. Using a multiplier of two, Amazon’s 25,000 employees would generate an additional 50,000 jobs in the region for a total of 75,000 jobs over 10 years. On the high end, this could be an additional 125,000 jobs. AMAZON EMPLOYMENT IMPACT Source: CBRE, Q4 2018. RESEARCH-BASED EMPLOYMENT MUTIPLIERS Source Employment Multiplier Enrico Moretti (U.C. Berkeley) 5.0 IMPLAN Group (Amazon Study) 2.1 Maryland Dept. of Commerce (Amazon Study) 1.9 Greater Washington Partnership (Amazon Study) 1.9 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis RIMS II Data 1.9 Source: CBRE, Q4 2018. 19 NOVEMBER 2018 CBRE Research © 2018 CBRE Inc.| 6 VIEWPOINT WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE RESEARCH OFFICE MARKET EFFECTS Amazon’s HQ2 likely will spur office rent growth in Northern Virginia and the entire D.C. region. Much of this impact will come from indirect employment, which at 50,000 jobs will generate significant additional office demand. CBRE calculates that nearly 37,500—or 75% of those 50,000 indirect jobs—will be office-using employment.6 The remaining 12,500 will be in retail, construction, housing and service-related industries. This implies that the indirect impact of Amazon HQ2 could be as much as 7 million sq. ft. of office demand across the D.C. region , with the bulk of it concentrated in Northern Virginia and in addition to Amazon’s own 4 million sq. ft. requirement. However, Amazon is likely to settle in owner-occupied space by full build-out. As pressure on the Crystal City office market becomes acute—especially since it is physically constrained by highways and railroads—many businesses will find greater value in adjacent submarkets and may seek more affordable space, thus increasing demand outside of Arlington. Northern Virginia submarkets that may benefit from activity in Crystal City include Alexandria and the I-395 Corridor, which are just south of Crystal City and are interconnected by the Metro. The Potomac Yard area south of Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA) is slated for large-scale redevelopment totaling up to 1.9 million sq. ft. AMAZON OFFICE IMPACT Source: CBRE, Q4 2018. 19 NOVEMBER 2018 CBRE Research © 2018 CBRE Inc.| 7 VIEWPOINT WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE RESEARCH Additionally, major transportation corridors along US-50, VA Rt. 7 and Columbia Pike are within commuting distance of Crystal City. Finally, the Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor— Arlington’s most successful corridor in terms of office rents—would be a prime destination for other technology firms seeking a vibrant live-work-play environment. The impact would be felt regionwide, too, as technology-oriented law firms likely would seek space in D.C. and other firms would look in Maryland. The region is poised to attract businesses that may want to provide services to Amazon but not necessarily be in the same neighborhood. MULTIFAMILY MARKET EFFECTS The infusion of 25,000 Amazon employees over 10 years will be significant for the D.C. region housing market. Employees commuting to Crystal City will require housing within transit distance. CBRE research shows that 56% of millennial employees have a commute tolerance of 30 minutes .