A Course in Interacting Particle Systems
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Stationary Processes and Their Statistical Properties
Stationary Processes and Their Statistical Properties Brian Borchers March 29, 2001 1 Stationary processes A discrete time stochastic process is a sequence of random variables Z1, Z2, :::. In practice we will typically analyze a single realization z1, z2, :::, zn of the stochastic process and attempt to esimate the statistical properties of the stochastic process from the realization. We will also consider the problem of predicting zn+1 from the previous elements of the sequence. We will begin by focusing on the very important class of stationary stochas- tic processes. A stochastic process is strictly stationary if its statistical prop- erties are unaffected by shifting the stochastic process in time. In particular, this means that if we take a subsequence Zk+1, :::, Zk+m, then the joint distribution of the m random variables will be the same no matter what k is. Stationarity requires that the mean of the stochastic process be a constant. E[Zk] = µ. and that the variance is constant 2 V ar[Zk] = σZ : Also, stationarity requires that the covariance of two elements separated by a distance m is constant. That is, Cov(Zk;Zk+m) is constant. This covariance is called the autocovariance at lag m, and we will use the notation γm. Since Cov(Zk;Zk+m) = Cov(Zk+m;Zk), we need only find γm for m 0. The ≥ correlation of Zk and Zk+m is the autocorrelation at lag m. We will use the notation ρm for the autocorrelation. It is easy to show that γk ρk = : γ0 1 2 The autocovariance and autocorrelation ma- trices The covariance matrix for the random variables Z1, :::, Zn is called an auto- covariance matrix. -
Poisson Representations of Branching Markov and Measure-Valued
The Annals of Probability 2011, Vol. 39, No. 3, 939–984 DOI: 10.1214/10-AOP574 c Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2011 POISSON REPRESENTATIONS OF BRANCHING MARKOV AND MEASURE-VALUED BRANCHING PROCESSES By Thomas G. Kurtz1 and Eliane R. Rodrigues2 University of Wisconsin, Madison and UNAM Representations of branching Markov processes and their measure- valued limits in terms of countable systems of particles are con- structed for models with spatially varying birth and death rates. Each particle has a location and a “level,” but unlike earlier con- structions, the levels change with time. In fact, death of a particle occurs only when the level of the particle crosses a specified level r, or for the limiting models, hits infinity. For branching Markov pro- cesses, at each time t, conditioned on the state of the process, the levels are independent and uniformly distributed on [0,r]. For the limiting measure-valued process, at each time t, the joint distribu- tion of locations and levels is conditionally Poisson distributed with mean measure K(t) × Λ, where Λ denotes Lebesgue measure, and K is the desired measure-valued process. The representation simplifies or gives alternative proofs for a vari- ety of calculations and results including conditioning on extinction or nonextinction, Harris’s convergence theorem for supercritical branch- ing processes, and diffusion approximations for processes in random environments. 1. Introduction. Measure-valued processes arise naturally as infinite sys- tem limits of empirical measures of finite particle systems. A number of ap- proaches have been developed which preserve distinct particles in the limit and which give a representation of the measure-valued process as a transfor- mation of the limiting infinite particle system. -
Methods of Monte Carlo Simulation II
Methods of Monte Carlo Simulation II Ulm University Institute of Stochastics Lecture Notes Dr. Tim Brereton Summer Term 2014 Ulm, 2014 2 Contents 1 SomeSimpleStochasticProcesses 7 1.1 StochasticProcesses . 7 1.2 RandomWalks .......................... 7 1.2.1 BernoulliProcesses . 7 1.2.2 RandomWalks ...................... 10 1.2.3 ProbabilitiesofRandomWalks . 13 1.2.4 Distribution of Xn .................... 13 1.2.5 FirstPassageTime . 14 2 Estimators 17 2.1 Bias, Variance, the Central Limit Theorem and Mean Square Error................................ 19 2.2 Non-AsymptoticErrorBounds. 22 2.3 Big O and Little o Notation ................... 23 3 Markov Chains 25 3.1 SimulatingMarkovChains . 28 3.1.1 Drawing from a Discrete Uniform Distribution . 28 3.1.2 Drawing From A Discrete Distribution on a Small State Space ........................... 28 3.1.3 SimulatingaMarkovChain . 28 3.2 Communication .......................... 29 3.3 TheStrongMarkovProperty . 30 3.4 RecurrenceandTransience . 31 3.4.1 RecurrenceofRandomWalks . 33 3.5 InvariantDistributions . 34 3.6 LimitingDistribution. 36 3.7 Reversibility............................ 37 4 The Poisson Process 39 4.1 Point Processes on [0, )..................... 39 ∞ 3 4 CONTENTS 4.2 PoissonProcess .......................... 41 4.2.1 Order Statistics and the Distribution of Arrival Times 44 4.2.2 DistributionofArrivalTimes . 45 4.3 SimulatingPoissonProcesses. 46 4.3.1 Using the Infinitesimal Definition to Simulate Approx- imately .......................... 46 4.3.2 SimulatingtheArrivalTimes . 47 4.3.3 SimulatingtheInter-ArrivalTimes . 48 4.4 InhomogenousPoissonProcesses. 48 4.5 Simulating an Inhomogenous Poisson Process . 49 4.5.1 Acceptance-Rejection. 49 4.5.2 Infinitesimal Approach (Approximate) . 50 4.6 CompoundPoissonProcesses . 51 5 ContinuousTimeMarkovChains 53 5.1 TransitionFunction. 53 5.2 InfinitesimalGenerator . 54 5.3 ContinuousTimeMarkovChains . -
Superprocesses and Mckean-Vlasov Equations with Creation of Mass
Sup erpro cesses and McKean-Vlasov equations with creation of mass L. Overb eck Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, 367, Evans Hall Berkeley, CA 94720, y U.S.A. Abstract Weak solutions of McKean-Vlasov equations with creation of mass are given in terms of sup erpro cesses. The solutions can b e approxi- mated by a sequence of non-interacting sup erpro cesses or by the mean- eld of multityp e sup erpro cesses with mean- eld interaction. The lat- ter approximation is asso ciated with a propagation of chaos statement for weakly interacting multityp e sup erpro cesses. Running title: Sup erpro cesses and McKean-Vlasov equations . 1 Intro duction Sup erpro cesses are useful in solving nonlinear partial di erential equation of 1+ the typ e f = f , 2 0; 1], cf. [Dy]. Wenowchange the p oint of view and showhowtheyprovide sto chastic solutions of nonlinear partial di erential Supp orted byanFellowship of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. y On leave from the Universitat Bonn, Institut fur Angewandte Mathematik, Wegelerstr. 6, 53115 Bonn, Germany. 1 equation of McKean-Vlasovtyp e, i.e. wewant to nd weak solutions of d d 2 X X @ @ @ + d x; + bx; : 1.1 = a x; t i t t t t t ij t @t @x @x @x i j i i=1 i;j =1 d Aweak solution = 2 C [0;T];MIR satis es s Z 2 t X X @ @ a f = f + f + d f + b f ds: s ij s t 0 i s s @x @x @x 0 i j i Equation 1.1 generalizes McKean-Vlasov equations of twodi erenttyp es. -
Poisson Processes Stochastic Processes
Poisson Processes Stochastic Processes UC3M Feb. 2012 Exponential random variables A random variable T has exponential distribution with rate λ > 0 if its probability density function can been written as −λt f (t) = λe 1(0;+1)(t) We summarize the above by T ∼ exp(λ): The cumulative distribution function of a exponential random variable is −λt F (t) = P(T ≤ t) = 1 − e 1(0;+1)(t) And the tail, expectation and variance are P(T > t) = e−λt ; E[T ] = λ−1; and Var(T ) = E[T ] = λ−2 The exponential random variable has the lack of memory property P(T > t + sjT > t) = P(T > s) Exponencial races In what follows, T1;:::; Tn are independent r.v., with Ti ∼ exp(λi ). P1: min(T1;:::; Tn) ∼ exp(λ1 + ··· + λn) . P2 λ1 P(T1 < T2) = λ1 + λ2 P3: λi P(Ti = min(T1;:::; Tn)) = λ1 + ··· + λn P4: If λi = λ and Sn = T1 + ··· + Tn ∼ Γ(n; λ). That is, Sn has probability density function (λs)n−1 f (s) = λe−λs 1 (s) Sn (n − 1)! (0;+1) The Poisson Process as a renewal process Let T1; T2;::: be a sequence of i.i.d. nonnegative r.v. (interarrival times). Define the arrival times Sn = T1 + ··· + Tn if n ≥ 1 and S0 = 0: The process N(t) = maxfn : Sn ≤ tg; is called Renewal Process. If the common distribution of the times is the exponential distribution with rate λ then process is called Poisson Process of with rate λ. Lemma. N(t) ∼ Poisson(λt) and N(t + s) − N(s); t ≥ 0; is a Poisson process independent of N(s); t ≥ 0 The Poisson Process as a L´evy Process A stochastic process fX (t); t ≥ 0g is a L´evyProcess if it verifies the following properties: 1. -
A Stochastic Processes and Martingales
A Stochastic Processes and Martingales A.1 Stochastic Processes Let I be either IINorIR+.Astochastic process on I with state space E is a family of E-valued random variables X = {Xt : t ∈ I}. We only consider examples where E is a Polish space. Suppose for the moment that I =IR+. A stochastic process is called cadlag if its paths t → Xt are right-continuous (a.s.) and its left limits exist at all points. In this book we assume that every stochastic process is cadlag. We say a process is continuous if its paths are continuous. The above conditions are meant to hold with probability 1 and not to hold pathwise. A.2 Filtration and Stopping Times The information available at time t is expressed by a σ-subalgebra Ft ⊂F.An {F ∈ } increasing family of σ-algebras t : t I is called a filtration.IfI =IR+, F F F we call a filtration right-continuous if t+ := s>t s = t. If not stated otherwise, we assume that all filtrations in this book are right-continuous. In many books it is also assumed that the filtration is complete, i.e., F0 contains all IIP-null sets. We do not assume this here because we want to be able to change the measure in Chapter 4. Because the changed measure and IIP will be singular, it would not be possible to extend the new measure to the whole σ-algebra F. A stochastic process X is called Ft-adapted if Xt is Ft-measurable for all t. If it is clear which filtration is used, we just call the process adapted.The {F X } natural filtration t is the smallest right-continuous filtration such that X is adapted. -
The Ising Model
The Ising Model Today we will switch topics and discuss one of the most studied models in statistical physics the Ising Model • Some applications: – Magnetism (the original application) – Liquid-gas transition – Binary alloys (can be generalized to multiple components) • Onsager solved the 2D square lattice (1D is easy!) • Used to develop renormalization group theory of phase transitions in 1970’s. • Critical slowing down and “cluster methods”. Figures from Landau and Binder (LB), MC Simulations in Statistical Physics, 2000. Atomic Scale Simulation 1 The Model • Consider a lattice with L2 sites and their connectivity (e.g. a square lattice). • Each lattice site has a single spin variable: si = ±1. • With magnetic field h, the energy is: N −β H H = −∑ Jijsis j − ∑ hisi and Z = ∑ e ( i, j ) i=1 • J is the nearest neighbors (i,j) coupling: – J > 0 ferromagnetic. – J < 0 antiferromagnetic. • Picture of spins at the critical temperature Tc. (Note that connected (percolated) clusters.) Atomic Scale Simulation 2 Mapping liquid-gas to Ising • For liquid-gas transition let n(r) be the density at lattice site r and have two values n(r)=(0,1). E = ∑ vijnin j + µ∑ni (i, j) i • Let’s map this into the Ising model spin variables: 1 s = 2n − 1 or n = s + 1 2 ( ) v v + µ H s s ( ) s c = ∑ i j + ∑ i + 4 (i, j) 2 i J = −v / 4 h = −(v + µ) / 2 1 1 1 M = s n = n = M + 1 N ∑ i N ∑ i 2 ( ) i i Atomic Scale Simulation 3 JAVA Ising applet http://physics.weber.edu/schroeder/software/demos/IsingModel.html Dynamically runs using heat bath algorithm. -
Coalescence in Bellman-Harris and Multi-Type Branching Processes Jyy-I Joy Hong Iowa State University
Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Graduate Theses and Dissertations Dissertations 2011 Coalescence in Bellman-Harris and multi-type branching processes Jyy-i Joy Hong Iowa State University Follow this and additional works at: https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/etd Part of the Mathematics Commons Recommended Citation Hong, Jyy-i Joy, "Coalescence in Bellman-Harris and multi-type branching processes" (2011). Graduate Theses and Dissertations. 10103. https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/etd/10103 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Dissertations at Iowa State University Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Iowa State University Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Coalescence in Bellman-Harris and multi-type branching processes by Jyy-I Hong A dissertation submitted to the graduate faculty in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Major: Mathematics Program of Study Committee: Krishna B. Athreya, Major Professor Clifford Bergman Dan Nordman Ananda Weerasinghe Paul E. Sacks Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 2011 Copyright c Jyy-I Hong, 2011. All rights reserved. ii DEDICATION I would like to dedicate this thesis to my parents Wan-Fu Hong and Wen-Hsiang Tseng for their un- conditional love and support. Without them, the completion of this work would not have been possible. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . vii ABSTRACT . viii CHAPTER 1. PRELIMINARIES . 1 1.1 Introduction . 1 1.2 Discrete-time Single-type Galton-Watson Branching Processes . -
POISSON PROCESSES 1.1. the Rutherford-Chadwick-Ellis
POISSON PROCESSES 1. THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS 1.1. The Rutherford-Chadwick-Ellis Experiment. About 90 years ago Ernest Rutherford and his collaborators at the Cavendish Laboratory in Cambridge conducted a series of pathbreaking experiments on radioactive decay. In one of these, a radioactive substance was observed in N = 2608 time intervals of 7.5 seconds each, and the number of decay particles reaching a counter during each period was recorded. The table below shows the number Nk of these time periods in which exactly k decays were observed for k = 0,1,2,...,9. Also shown is N pk where k pk = (3.87) exp 3.87 =k! {− g The parameter value 3.87 was chosen because it is the mean number of decays/period for Rutherford’s data. k Nk N pk k Nk N pk 0 57 54.4 6 273 253.8 1 203 210.5 7 139 140.3 2 383 407.4 8 45 67.9 3 525 525.5 9 27 29.2 4 532 508.4 10 16 17.1 5 408 393.5 ≥ This is typical of what happens in many situations where counts of occurences of some sort are recorded: the Poisson distribution often provides an accurate – sometimes remarkably ac- curate – fit. Why? 1.2. Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution. The ubiquity of the Poisson distri- bution in nature stems in large part from its connection to the Binomial and Hypergeometric distributions. The Binomial-(N ,p) distribution is the distribution of the number of successes in N independent Bernoulli trials, each with success probability p. -
Lecture 16: March 12 Instructor: Alistair Sinclair
CS271 Randomness & Computation Spring 2020 Lecture 16: March 12 Instructor: Alistair Sinclair Disclaimer: These notes have not been subjected to the usual scrutiny accorded to formal publications. They may be distributed outside this class only with the permission of the Instructor. 16.1 The Giant Component in Gn,p In an earlier lecture we briefly mentioned the threshold for the existence of a “giant” component in a random graph, i.e., a connected component containing a constant fraction of the vertices. We now derive this threshold rigorously, using both Chernoff bounds and the useful machinery of branching processes. We work c with our usual model of random graphs, Gn,p, and look specifically at the range p = n , for some constant c. Our goal will be to prove: c Theorem 16.1 For G ∈ Gn,p with p = n for constant c, we have: 1. For c < 1, then a.a.s. the largest connected component of G is of size O(log n). 2. For c > 1, then a.a.s. there exists a single largest component of G of size βn(1 + o(1)), where β is the unique solution in (0, 1) to β + e−βc = 1. Moreover, the next largest component in G has size O(log n). Here, and throughout this lecture, we use the phrase “a.a.s.” (asymptotically almost surely) to denote an event that holds with probability tending to 1 as n → ∞. This behavior is shown pictorially in Figure 16.1. For c < 1, G consists of a collection of small components of size at most O(log n) (which are all “tree-like”), while for c > 1 a single “giant” component emerges that contains a constant fraction of the vertices, with the remaining vertices all belonging to tree-like components of size O(log n). -
Lecture 19: Polymer Models: Persistence and Self-Avoidance
Lecture 19: Polymer Models: Persistence and Self-Avoidance Scribe: Allison Ferguson (and Martin Z. Bazant) Martin Fisher School of Physics, Brandeis University April 14, 2005 Polymers are high molecular weight molecules formed by combining a large number of smaller molecules (monomers) in a regular pattern. Polymers in solution (i.e. uncrystallized) can be characterized as long flexible chains, and thus may be well described by random walk models of various complexity. 1 Simple Random Walk (IID Steps) Consider a Rayleigh random walk (i.e. a fixed step size a with a random angle θ). Recall (from Lecture 1) that the probability distribution function (PDF) of finding the walker at position R~ after N steps is given by −3R2 2 ~ e 2a N PN (R) ∼ d (1) (2πa2N/d) 2 Define RN = |R~| as the end-to-end distance of the polymer. Then from previous results we q √ 2 2 ¯ 2 know hRN i = Na and RN = hRN i = a N. We can define an additional quantity, the radius of gyration GN as the radius from the centre of mass (assuming the polymer has an approximately 1 2 spherical shape ). Hughes [1] gives an expression for this quantity in terms of hRN i as follows: 1 1 hG2 i = 1 − hR2 i (2) N 6 N 2 N As an example of the type of prediction which can be made using this type of simple model, consider the following experiment: Pull on both ends of a polymer and measure the force f required to stretch it out2. Note that the force will be given by f = −(∂F/∂R) where F = U − TS is the Helmholtz free energy (T is the temperature, U is the internal energy, and S is the entropy). -
8 Convergence of Loop-Erased Random Walk to SLE2 8.1 Comments on the Paper
8 Convergence of loop-erased random walk to SLE2 8.1 Comments on the paper The proof that the loop-erased random walk converges to SLE2 is in the paper \Con- formal invariance of planar loop-erased random walks and uniform spanning trees" by Lawler, Schramm and Werner. (arxiv.org: math.PR/0112234). This section contains some comments to give you some hope of being able to actually make sense of this paper. In the first sections of the paper, δ is used to denote the lattice spacing. The main theorem is that as δ 0, the loop erased random walk converges to SLE2. HOWEVER, beginning in section !2.2 the lattice spacing is 1, and in section 3.2 the notation δ reappears but means something completely different. (δ also appears in the proof of lemma 2.1 in section 2.1, but its meaning here is restricted to this proof. The δ in this proof has nothing to do with any δ's outside the proof.) After the statement of the main theorem, there is no mention of the lattice spacing going to zero. This is hidden in conditions on the \inner radius." For a domain D containing 0 the inner radius is rad0(D) = inf z : z = D (364) fj j 2 g Now fix a domain D containing the origin. Let be the conformal map of D onto U. We want to show that the image under of a LERW on a lattice with spacing δ converges to SLE2 in the unit disc. In the paper they do this in a slightly different way.