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Business Intelligence BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE BEAUTY AND PERSONAL LUXURY Contents Click to jump to a section: 1 2 3 Advertising Category Consumer Forecasts Growth Insights Introduction Welcome to Zenith’s Business Intelligence report on beauty and personal luxury, the third in a series that analyses the advertising, business and consumer behaviour trends shaping different categories. Like all categories, beauty and personal luxury were deeply disrupted by the pandemic, but the changes in consumer behaviour affected different types of product in different ways. Demand for cosmetics and perfumes fell swiftly as people stopped meeting in person, but sales of skin care and hair care products held up as people focused on giving themselves small treats at home. Skin care and hair care are also expected to lead growth during the recovery. Faced with an entirely new and unexpected environment, some beauty brands led the way in using digital media for communication and commerce in 2020. They have been rapidly developing ecommerce technology that gives consumer the confidence to try on products and buy them remotely, while using digital media to substitute effectively for falling traditional magazine and television audiences. But the category as a whole is lagging behind and needs to follow their lead if they are to capitalise on the resurgence in demand expected in 2021 and 2022. Consumers have changed a lot over the last year, becoming much more vocal about environmental damage and social injustice. Beauty and personal luxury brands will need to do even more to demonstrate to demanding customers how they benefit the world and society. Scope of report This report covers the beauty and personal luxury category, which is defined as the combination of four sub-categories of products: cosmetics, fragrances, skin care and hair care. BEAUTY AND PERSONAL LUXURY ADVERTISING FORECASTS 1.7% GROWTH IN 2021 Beauty adspend to grow The fastest growth will just 1.7% in 2021, well below come from France as it the 4.4% recovery in total partially recovers from the adspend steepest decline in 2020, but India will benefit from strong growth in consumer demand 4 Beauty brands spend much Higher-quality digital more on magazines and environments will help TV than the average brand, drive traffic to improved but all new adspend will ecommerce operations go to digital channels 5 WEAK DEMAND FOR COSMETICS AND TOILETRIES TO RESTRAIN RECOVERY IN BEAUTY AND PERSONAL LUXURY ADSPEND Zenith forecasts beauty and personal luxury advertising in eleven key markets to grow by just 1.7% in 2021, well below the 4.4% growth rate for total adspend. Beauty adspend will then grow by 2.6% in 2022, leaving it 3.6% below the level of beauty adspend in 2019. The eleven markets included in this report are Australia, Canada, France, Germany, India, Italy, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, the UK and the US. Beauty and personal luxury adspend fell roughly in line with the market in 2020, as consumers kept spending on hair care and skin care. With hairdressers and salons harder to reach, consumers took hair care into their own hands at home. Skin care, meanwhile, benefited from heightened desire for health- enhancing products. During the recovery, though, overall demand for beauty will be weak as consumers remain reluctant to return to their pre- pandemic meeting habits, reducing sales of cosmetics and toiletries in particular. Euromonitor International forecasts growth in beauty sales to fall well behind growth in consumer expenditure in 2021 and 2022 (see the Category Growth section for more details). Faced with this weak recovery, beauty and personal luxury brands will be reluctant to raise budgets and will be more likely to redeploy spending from underperforming channels instead. 6 Year-on-year growth in adspend (%) – eleven key markets 4.4 4.5 2.6 1.7 2020 2021 2022 -7.0 -7.7 Beauty Total market Source: Zenith Total video entertainment adspend (US$ million) 7,960 7,672 7,346 7,474 20192020 2021 2022 Source: Zenith 7 FRANCE AND INDIA TO LEAD BEAUTY AND PERSONAL LUXURY ADSPEND GROWTH Zenith expects France to be the Euromonitor forecasts weak best-performing beauty ad market demand for beauty and personal over the next two years, growing luxury products across North by 13.3% a year on average. America and the rest of Western That’s a reaction to the depth of Europe, leading to consistently its decline in 2020, when beauty slow growth in beauty adspend of brands cut budgets dramatically 1%-2% a year across the markets in at the beginning of the pandemic, these regions. leading to a 32.9% decline for the year as a whole. The market will start to recover quickly from this “Beauty adspend was much-reduced base in 2021, but is still expected to be 13.8% lower in stable in India in 2020, 2022 than it was in 2019, compared and is forecast to grow to the 3.6% average drop across all eleven markets over this period. at an average of 7.6% a year as more consumers India, by contrast, is forecast take up the habit of to grow as a result of strong consumer demand. Beauty regularly buying beauty adspend was stable in India in products.” 2020, and is forecast to grow at an average of 7.6% a year as more consumers take up the habit of regularly buying beauty products. We expect beauty and personal luxury adspend in India to be 15.2% higher in 2022 than it was in 2019. 8 Average annual growth in beauty and personal luxury adspend by market 2020-2022 (%) France 13.3% India 7.6% Russia 4.2% Australia 2.3% UK 1.7% Germany 1.4% Canada 1.2% Italy 1.2% US 1.1% Switzerland 1.0% Spain 0.8% Source: Zenith 0.8 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.3 5 5.7 6.4 7.1 7.8 8.5 9.2 9.9 10.6 11.3 12.0 12.7 13.4 14.1 14.8 9 BETTER ENVIRONMENTS AND ECOMMERCE HELP DIGITAL COMPENSATE FOR DECLINING REACH OF MAGAZINES AND TV Beauty and personal luxury brands spend much more of their budgets on magazines and TV than the average brand. Beauty, the quintessential category of appearance, thrives on its ability to create emotional connections through imagery in a high-quality environment. Zenith estimates that in 2020 beauty brands spent 4.3 times more in magazines than the average brand, and 1.6 times more on television. But these media are becoming less effective as their reach continues to decline, and the scarcity of their audiences pushes up prices. Beauty and personal luxury brands have been relatively slow to adopt digital advertising, spending 34.1% of their budgets digitally in 2020, compared to 53.1% for the market as a whole. This is partly due to the historic lack of premium digital environments that support the high- quality brand imagery that beauty and personal luxury brands need to convey, and partly because of the difficulty the beauty industry has had adapting to ecommerce, the main driver of growth in retail sales – and in 2020 the only driver. As detailed in the Category Growth section of this report, beauty ecommerce sales have consistently lagged behind the market as a whole because consumers feel the need to sample and try on beauty products in person before they are convinced they have found the right items for their personal features. 10 Share of adspend by medium, 2020 (%) 53.1 42.2 34.1 26.3 18.3 6.1 5.8 4.3 4.2 2.1 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.3 Newspapers MagazinesTV Radio Cinema OOH Digital Beauty Total market Source: Zenith 11 “Beauty, the quintessential category of appearance, thrives on its ability to create emotional connections through imagery in a high-quality environment.” 12 However, technologies like video- are therefore becoming more on-demand and connected TV, useful to beauty brands for both and social platforms like Instagram brand and performance advertising. and TikTok, are creating new Zenith estimates that the beauty premium environments that category spent 2.8% more on digital showcase beauty and personal advertising in 2020 than in 2019, luxury brands effectively. The despite the pandemic, and forecasts brands are also investing heavily average growth of 5.9% a year in their ecommerce offerings, between 2019 and 2022. Beauty including virtual and augmented and personal luxury adspend on all reality technology that allows other media will decline over this consumers to experience and try period, by between 1.2% a year for on products online. Digital channels TV and 12.4% a year for magazines. Average annual growth in adspend by medium 2019-2022 (%) 6.6 5.9 TV Radio OOH Cinema Newspapers Magazines Digital -1.2 1.5 -2.8 -3.2 -3.8 -4.6 -4.8 -5.3 -8.4 -12.0 -12.4 -13.1 Beauty Total market Source: Zenith 13 BEAUTY AND PERSONAL LUXURY CATEGORY GROWTH Demand for beauty Continued social distancing products held up better will depress demand for than overall consumer cosmetics and fragrances expenditure in 2020, as during the recovery hair care and skin care sales rose 0.7% and 0.2% respectively 14 88% OF SALES IN PERSON The beauty category Coty and LVMH are the lags behind the market fastest-growing big beauty as a whole in adopting companies, with respective ecommerce, with 88% of 18% and 10% average sales conducted in person annual growth over the in 2019 past five years 15 HAIR CARE AND SKIN CARE TO LEAD SLOW RECOVERY IN DEMAND FOR BEAUTY Beauty and personal luxury sales held sales fell 7.7%, and fragrance sales fell up fairly well in 2020.
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