It Depends Which Way the Wind Blows: An integrated assessment of projected climate change impacts and adaptation options for the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region FINAL REPORT June 2012
ISBN 978 1 921800 42 9
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FOREWORD
As stated by Warwick Baird, at the 2008 Climate change and Indigenous Peoples conference in Perth
“ ... climate change was impacting and was going to impact even more on indigenous peoples globally in a unique way, because of this deep engagement they have with the land. “
Aboriginal and Torres Strait people have the care and control of over 20% of the land in Australia and this link is recognised internationally. Engagement with the first nation peoples over the policies and directions of climate change initiatives needs to be a focus of national and state programs. Aboriginal people across South Australia need to be fully included in climate change discussions, particularly about how it will affect their culture, their land and water resources, so they can make informed decisions about what to do next.
The Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resource Management Board acknowledges some progress at a Federal level towards this and that more clarity is needed for communities to be able to understand what is available to support them. The Natural Resource Management Boards are a good conduit to help this process
The Board with the support of communities and Adelaide University developed this report as the first of many steps needed in our Region to look at the impact of climate change on the land and possible effects on community’s ability to look after that land. The Board was keen that this was not just a document of words about climate change but gave some ideas for projects that with support of all levels of government can assist communities look after their country under the reality of climate change. Some community comments from the initial consultations have been included.
Aboriginal groups need more information, consultation and resourcing in developing their own programs to turn the points raised in this report into reality on the ground and the Board is determined that this occurs.
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FINAL REPORT JUNE 2012 for the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management Regional Board Authors Douglas K. Bardsley and Nathanael D. Wiseman Geography, Environment and Population, The University of Adelaide, South Australia Email: [email protected] & [email protected]
Acknowledgements
This work has been financially supported by the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management Regional Board. The authors would like to acknowledge the assistance of a number of important contributors. Thanks to the many Anangu elders and other community members for welcoming Douglas to their communities on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands, and providing valuable insights into their relationships with country, climate and the natural resource management processes. Special thanks to John and Nan Kite of Watarru for facilitating the workshops, for organising transport and accommodation, and for supplying the biggest barbeque on Earth! Lena Taylor and Rose Lester did a fantastic job with the translation and along with Garry Lewis provided many valuable opinions on important local issues. Thanks to Neil Collins, who provided vital support to develop and undertake the project, and to Karan Coombe-Smith, Trevor Naismith and Bruce Campbell, who organized the very enjoyable and rewarding workshops. Thanks also to Ken Bardsley for undertaking a comprehensive edit of the work at a late stage. Finally, Douglas would like to thank the late Reverend Ron Trudinger and his wife Sue, who introduced him to the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands in the early 1990’s.
Image 1. A storm front over the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management Region (Photo: D Bardsley)
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Contents
Page
Foreword from AW NRM Board...... 2
Acknowledgements ...... 3
List of Tables, Figures and Photographic Images ...... 6
1. Executive summary ……………………………………………...... 9
2. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………...... 21
3. Projected climate change for the AW NRM region .………………………………………… 31
3.1 Existing climate conditions for the AW NRM region ………………………………. 31
3.2 Climate change projections for the AW NRM region ……………….……………… 34
3.3 Summary of climate change trends and projections ……………………………….. 44
3.4 Suggested Example Climate Projects ...... 46
4. Flood Management, Surface Water and Groundwater Resources ...... 47
4.1 Section Summary ...... 47
4.2 Climate Change Impacts ...... 47
4.3 Adaptation Response ...... 57
4.4 Suggested Example Water Projects ...... 59
5. Biodiversity Conservation ...... 62
5.1 Section Summary ...... 62
5.2 Climate Change Impacts ...... 62
5.3 Adaptation Response ...... 79
5.4 Suggested Example Biodiversity Projects ...... 82
6. Invasive Species Management ...... 85
6.1 Section Summary ...... 85
6.2 Climate Change Impacts ...... 85
6.3 Adaptation Response ...... 95
6.4 Suggested Example Invasive Species Projects ...... 96
7. Land Management & Desertification ...... 98
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7.1 Section Summary ...... 98
7.2 Land Management Climate Change Impacts ...... 98
7.3 Land Management Adaptation Response ...... 101
7.4 Desertification Climate Change Impacts ……………………………………………. 102
7.5 Desertification Adaptation Response ………………………………………………... 105
7.6 Suggested Example Land Management & Desertification Projects ...... 106
8. Coastal Management ...... 107
8.1 Section Summary ...... 107
8.2 Climate Change Impacts ...... 107
8.3 Adaptation Response ...... 110
8.4 Suggested Example Coastal Projects ...... 110
9. Conclusion: Where to from here? ...... 112
9.1 People ...... 114
9.2 Country and Water ……………………………………………………………………….. 122
9.3 Final Word...... 128
Appendix 1. Statement and guiding questions for workshops …………………………….. 129
Appendix 2. Workshop summaries …………………………………………………………….... 131
Appendix 3. Glossary ……………………………………………………………………………..... 136
Appendix 4. All Example projects………………………………………………………………..... 142
References …………………………………………………………………………………………...... 150
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List of Tables, Figures and Photographic Images
Tables
Table 1. Summary of major projected climate change for the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management Region to 2030
Table 2. Summary of climate change vulnerability analyses for natural resource management in the Alinytjara Wilurara Region
Table 3. Summary of Vulnerability, Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Options and Suggested Example Projects for the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management Region
Table 4. Annual climate statistics at six points in and around the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Table 5. Summary of major projected climate change impacts for the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management Region to 2030
Table 6. Vulnerability to flooding due to climate change in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management
Table 7. Summary of primary surface water resources in Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Table 8. Selected projected changes to ground water recharge and streamflow in semiarid areas due to climate change
Table 9. Vulnerability of surface water resources in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region to climate change
Table 10. Vulnerability of groundwater resources in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region to climate change
Table 11. Summary of potential impacts of climate change on water resources in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region Table 12. Vulnerability of biodiversity conservation in the North of the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region to climate change
Table 13. Vulnerability of biodiversity conservation in the South of the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region to climate change
Table 14. Vulnerability to invasive species due to climate change in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Table 15. Vulnerability of pastoralism in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region to climate change
Table 16. Vulnerability to desertification due to climate change in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Table 17. Vulnerability of coasts in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region to climate change
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Figures
Figure 1. Map of the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management Region indicating mean annual rainfall, seasonal rainfall dominance and key locations
Figure 2. Map of the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region indicating subregional landscape types
Figure 3. Interactive impacts of climate change on natural resource management and social systems in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Figure 4. Australian average annual rainfall indicating Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management Region
Figure 5. Process used for vulnerability analyses
Figure 6. Comparison of mean maximum temperatures and rainfall at Ernabella (Pukatja) and Nullarbor
Figure 7. Average Summer and Winter rainfall for Australia indicating Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Figure 8. Comparison of mean rainfall at Ernabella (Pukatja) and Maralinga
Figure 9. Average projected seasonal and annual warming changes for South Australia
Figure 10. Trend in Australian Average Maximum temperatures (1910-2010) indicating Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Figure 11. Giles Annual Maximum Temperature Trend
Figure 12. Ceduna Annual Maximum Temperature Trend
Figure 13. Trend in Australian Annual Pan Evaporation (1970-2010) indicating Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Figure 14. Trend in Australian Annual Total Rainfall (1910-2010) indicating Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Figure 15. Giles and Nullarbor Average Annual Rainfall with 10 year average trend lines
Figure 16. Goode Average Annual Rainfall with 10 year average trend lines
Figure 17. Average projected seasonal and annual rainfall changes (%) for South Australia
Figure 18. Giles and Hamilton Average Summer Rainfall with 10 year average trend lines
Figure 19. Nullarbor Average Summer and Winter Rainfall with 10 year average trend lines
Figure 20. Map of Australian Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia indicating Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Figure 21. Example interactions between feral camels and desertification processes
Figure 22. Integrative climate and land degradation processes associated with the establishment of Buffel grass
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Photographic Images
Please note: All photographic images were taken by Douglas Bardsley and can be used freely by the local people of the AW NRM region, the AW NRM Board and the APY Lands Council, with appropriate referencing. Other potential users should seek permission for re-publication.
Image 1. A storm front over the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Image 2. Ant nest mound in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Image 3. Central ranges in the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands in the North of the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Image 4. A dry river bed on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 5. The semi-arid rangelands of the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 6. The Central Ranges of the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands from the air
Image 7. A Southern Right Whale (Eubalaena australis) off the South Australian coast
Image 8. A creek crossing after a storm on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 9. Rockhole in the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 10. Rocky outcrop on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands indicating the relationship between impervious surfaces and vegetation
Image 11. Large tree species such as this dead River Red Gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) rely on groundwater to survive long dry periods
Image 12. Rainwater-fed water-point for native animals on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 13. Flowering spinifex at Watarru after significant summer rains
Image 14. Flowering Flame Grevillea (Grevillea eriostachya) on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 15. The rocky outcrop or “inselberg” at Watarru
Image 16. Vegetation on an isolated rocky outcrop at Watarru
Image 17. Vegetation associated with rock outcrops on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 18. Stalked Puffball fungus (Podaxis pistillaris) after significant summer rains on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 19. A King Brown Snake (Pseudechis australis) on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 20. Processionary Caterpillars (Ochrogaster lunifer) after significant summer rainfall on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
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Image 21. Patch burning on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 22. Spinifex grassland indicating level of biomass available for fuelling fires after significant summer rains on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 23. Feral camel (Camelus dromedarius) on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 24. Feral camels on a claypan in the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 25. Feral camel carcass adjacent to wetlands on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 26. Dense stands of Buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris) adjacent to the schoolyard in Watarru
Image 27. Buffel grass adjacent to roadside on Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 28. Cattle sheltering around stockyards on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
Image 29. Distillate bowser at Watarru indicating expensive fuel
Image 30. Garden at the Art Centre, Nyapari
Image 2. Ant nest mound in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region (Photo: D Bardsley)
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1. Executive summary
Executive summary “When have very dry times then the plants around rockholes die then when have a big rain all the dirt runs into the holes and filled them up.” Mimili April 2011 Climate change will challenge the managers and traditional owners in the Alinytjara Wilurara (AW) Natural Resources Management (NRM) region of South Australia (SA) to sustainably manage local environments by developing and implementing effective adaptation responses to impacts. The AW region covers the semi-arid north-west of SA (Image 3), and in fact the name is derived from the Pitjantjatjara: “alinytjara” meaning north and “wilurara” meaning west (AW NRM Board 2010, 2). There will be significant climate change impacts to both local communities and natural resources in the AW NRM region. Some social and ecological systems will become considerably more vulnerable in light of projected future climate change. Other systems that are already under threat could pass thresholds after which major deleterious change could result. This report analyses the vulnerability of NRM systems in the AW region to projected climate change to the year 2030. The report is also a basis for developing a whole of community “Climate Change Adaption Framework” which will be used to provide direction to the South Australian Government for capital investment in the region to enable communities to adapt to climate change (SA Climate Change Adaption Framework 2010)
Image 3. Central ranges in the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands in the North of the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region (Photo: D Bardsley) (notice the menace of buffel grass in the foreground. Climate change may increase this problem)
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As a region, the AW region of SA is a predominantly semi-arid area (Figure 1), characterised by a range of important social and ecological issues. Some key characteristics of the region (AW NRM Board 2010) include:
The Region covers a land area of over 250,000 km2, or about 26% of SA, much of that area being very remote; Approximately 3400 km of coastline; A human population of over 2000 people; More than half of the region is held as dedicated Aboriginal Lands; A significant dependence on groundwater and rainwater for community use; Significant invasive species impacts; and, Vast areas of relatively intact native ecosystems.
The AW NRM Board manages a portfolio of more than 20 NRM projects and works with other regional organisations on many combined projects, with a combined investment value in excess of $2 million. The Board has identified the need to understand the implications of climate change in relation to its NRM program. To inform stakeholders and develop ownership of change, this report has been prepared to provide ideas and information on impacts and adaptation options in a form that could be readily critiqued by stakeholders. The report is a critical review of current knowledge on climate change impacts and adaptation options in the AW NRM region, and could be utilised as an initial version of a living document that could evolve with new information and learning about responses to climate change. This review examines the vulnerabilities of the different NRM sectors to climate change, with emphasis on the bio-physical opportunities for reducing the sensitivity to change in the shorter term and applying adaptation options in the longer term. Of major importance are critical biophysical, socio-economic and management thresholds, or in other words, the levels of impact at which systems can no longer absorb the changes in climatic conditions without fundamental reductions in the provision of key products or services.
The AW NRM region has been subdivided into different landscape types (Figure 2). Drawing from the Bureau of Meteorology data presented in Figure 1, and detailed further in the report, important areas can be divided up into winter-dominant rainfall areas in the South (including areas 1-5 on Figure 2), summer-dominant rainfall areas in the North (including areas 7-9 on Figure 2), and a central area of the Great Victoria Desert (area 6 on Figure 2), which has very low rainfall with no dominant seasonal pattern. Climate change is resulting from both natural change and human actions on a global scale.
Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are increasing in the atmosphere, acting like a horticultural greenhouse, warming the Earth. To date, much of the State response to climate change has focused on Greenhouse gas emission reductions (SA Government 2011). While mitigation is vital, there is growing evidence that responses to an enhanced Greenhouse effect will also require immediate strategies for adaptation. It is necessary that we act now to investigate vulnerabilities and opportunities for adaptation to increase preparedness for change.
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Figure 1. Map of the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management Region indicating mean annual rainfall, seasonal rainfall dominance and key locations (Source of Rainfall data: BOM 2011; Location Map Source: DWLBC 2008)
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Figure 2. The Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region indicating subregional landscape types (Source: AW NRM Board)
Key: 1= Bunda Cliffs, 2=Yalata Coast, 3=Nullarbor Plain, 4=Yalata Lands, 5=Yellabinna and Yumbarra, 6=Great Victoria Desert, 7= Southern Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara, 8= Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Ranges, 9= Eastern Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara and Tallaringa
Significant climate change is projected for the region, but impacts will differ importantly from North to South (Table 1). While the projected drying trend in the South will be important even in the short- term, in the North there is likely to be intensification of the summer rainfall pattern but with little change in average rainfall. Nevertheless, the changes to climate and associated environmental systems may be difficult to detect within the region in the short-term, because of the extreme intra- and inter-annual variability in the local climate, especially with respect to rainfall. This variability can
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Warmer days and nights Hotter, longer hot spells Greater intra-annual and inter-annual rainfall variability Increased evapotranspiration Drier winters in the South and generally drying Possible increase in summer rainfall in the North, but generally little average change Less frequent, but more intense storm events Changes in the timing of flowering and breeding cycles Reduced persistence of surface waters Changing fire, runoff and pest regimes, and Higher sea-levels and more substantial coastal storm surges in the South.
Table 1. Summary of major projected climate change for the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management Region to 2030 (Sources: McInnes et al. 2003; Suppiah et al. 2006)
Projected Climate change South North
Average Annual + 0.2-1.6oC + 0.6 to 1.8oC temperatures Average Annual Number of For Ceduna 3-5 (currently 3) For Ernabella 8-12 (currently Hot spells above 35oC 7) Average Rainfall: Annual -15% to 0% -15% to +7% Summer -15% to +15% -7% to +15% Autumn -15% to +7% -7% to +15% Winter -15% to 0% -15% to +7% Spring -20% to 0% -15% to +7%
The future risks to important vulnerable systems or aspects of systems have been articulated in the report (Table 2). The discussion focuses on the science of climate change and NRM within the region, rather than on policy that is being developed. It has been designed to synthesise projected climate change impacts on NRM and to raise major issues for particular AW NRM sectors of interest. The discussion outlines key NRM systems that are likely to be most vulnerable to climate change impacts, and suggests opportunities to adapt effectively to the changing conditions. In the process of examining vulnerability to future projected climate change, it is important to note that major elements of the regional environment are already highly degraded due to previous anthropogenic impacts, irrespective of future climate change. It is also important to note that while NRM systems are analysed in isolation, as the discussion indicates, the systems are truly highly integrated, with each other and with climatic and social processes, as Figure 3 indicates.
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Figure 3. Interactive impacts of climate change on natural resource management and social systems in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
To the year 2030, which is the time frame that this report examines, the vulnerability of regional NRM systems is unlikely to increase in a manner that leads to fundamental changes in condition (identified as a High categorization in Table 2). The impacts of climate change will weaken already degraded ecosystems further, but are unlikely to lead to fundamental change in that timeframe. Of greater risk over the next 20 years is the failure of traditional and integrated management activities in light of factors only indirectly related to climate change, such as demographic change and a lack of training and resources to undertake necessary NRM work effectively. Climate change would exacerbate the effects of a weakening of local management and, moreover, create a greater demand for more directed and ongoing monitoring and management of key assets. It is this interaction between climate change, declining resource condition and local capacity to undertake some management activities, which forms the greatest risk in the AW NRM region to 2030.
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Table 2. Summary of climate change vulnerability analyses for natural resource management in the Alinytjara Wilurara Region
NRM Sector Exposure Sensitivity Potential Adaptive Vulnerability Impact Capacity Flood Management Surface Water Groundwater Biodiversity Conservation North Biodiversity Conservation South Invasive Species Land Management - Grazing Desertification Coasts
Colour Key for Exposure, Sensitivity, Potential Impact and Vulnerability (not adaptive capacity)
High Medium-High Medium Low-medium Low
Colour Key for Adaptive capacity
Limited Medium Significant
NRM systems are unlikely to pass through significant thresholds of change in the next 20 years due solely to climate change (Table 2). In part, that is because vital biodiversity systems and invasive species management have already passed through such thresholds due to strong anthropogenic impacts since European colonisation, and are unlikely to be fundamentally changed by climate change within this period. Some key assets such as surface and groundwater dependent ecosystems; ecosystems impacted by invasive mammals; places at risk of flood and fire; and land that could be degraded by over-grazing, will all be highly sensitive to climate change in the AW NRM region. Yet, some of these systems will not be highly exposed to climate change, especially in the North of the AW NRM region (the APY Lands), where there is unlikely to be a major wetting or drying trend over the next 20 years. Rather, the North is likely to experience an intensification of inter-annual cyclical periods of more or less rainfall. By comparison, where systems are exposed to a projected drying trend in the South, direct anthropogenic pressures are unlikely to be as significant, leading in turn to reduced sensitivities. There are also significant and necessary opportunities to implement adaptation options: to more directly protect vulnerable biodiversity; to implement controls on invasive species; to move key assets out of the way of the significant floods and fires that are projected to become more common, especially in the North; and monitor and manage grazing pressures more comprehensively. Beyond these general suggestions, there are more specific adaptation options that need to be considered.
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Important adaptation options
Specific ideas for adaptation to climate change are detailed under the different sections of the report (Chapters 4-8). The most important responses to climate change in the AW NRM region will be to strengthen local Anangu capacities to monitor and manage natural resources. Such a challenge is vital irrespective of climate change, but given the levels of vulnerability to future change, the traditional owners and managers of the lands, waters and biodiversity of the region must become a more comprehensive part of the solution to current and future management difficulties and opportunities. In general, there are opportunities to build resilience, create options for adaptation, and exploit ecological change for socio-economic benefit if effective actions can be undertaken to respond to projections of future change. It is important to recognise that responses to climate change will be a great global experiment. Early effective responses that are balanced and reflective of the intensity and scope of change will help minimise negative impacts and maximise potential benefits. Such responses can no longer be considered as an issue separate to other NRM activities in the region, because climate has a fundamental influence on all NRM systems, and the region is highly exposed to a number of likely impacts of future climate change.
Climate change is likely to have major impacts on NRM, but the specific impacts are uncertain. For that reason, we have avoided suggesting many detailed, specific actions, but rather wish to emphasise the need for the ownership of the issue by stakeholders to be fundamental for a regional response to climate change risk. When regional stakeholders incorporate an understanding of future climate change into their conceptualisation of the places and systems of the AW NRM region, an acceptance will develop that actions to adapt to future change are both possible and important. Beyond such a baseline, the review identifies a number of vital concerns that need to be better understood and/or managed in the short and long term to ensure more effective management, and provides examples of potential future projects (Table 3). There will also be a need for better climate information for the region and to integrate scientific and traditional knowledge on the subject. To guide the specific adaptation responses, further, more targeted vulnerability analyses will also be required for all key natural resource assets and industries in the AW NRM region in the future.
Recommendations for future work
Key recommendations for People
Make fuller use of and build upon the significant human and social resources of the Anangu communities, through improved participatory processes, including sharing information, decision-making, resources and activities. Examine the implications of climate change impacts on environmental hazards and changing resource condition for short-term health and welfare risks within communities. Provide more comprehensive and long-term formal opportunities for education, training and employment so that new NRM opportunities can be seized by local communities. Re-imagine the relationship between communities and education to enable a melding of traditional and other knowledge, perhaps involving innovative secondary school arrangements that emphasise the importance of NRM as a major component of the curriculum. Utilise mining investments to lever specific improvements to essential infrastructure, such as roads and housing, and to support education and training. Where new infrastructure is developed, funding should be assured over longer timeframes than in other, less-remote areas, because local capacity for servicing is often limited. In
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particular, alternative energy sources could be installed, fixed and/or regularly serviced across all of the communities, with particular opportunities associated with solar photovoltaic and hot water operations. Where possible introduce efficiencies in transport and NRM activities within remote areas. Improve transparency by providing public online resources, reports, links to partner websites and other documents through the AW NRM webpage to facilitate the sharing of knowledge and ideas with the broader community.
Key recommendations for Country and Water
Develop better understanding of the diversity of climatic conditions and trends within the region, especially in the Central Ranges of the North and along the coastline of the South. Research groundwater resources and monitor use, especially those areas significantly at risk due to mining expansion, or other new or expanded uses. Make more use of rainwater. Manage grazing and hunting pressures in surface- and water-dependent ecosystems, and other vulnerable habitats. Work to control invasive species, especially in areas that remain relatively intact, and in other areas aim to exploit commercial and local opportunities for hunting and/or harvesting. In particular, exploit large camel populations for local use or commercial gain. Identify species that are likely to become highly invasive with future climate change and aim to prevent their expansion. Monitor and where appropriate, control new mining exploration impacts such as road development, introduction of potentially invasive species or water extraction. Improve understanding of cattle grazing and ensure sustainable carrying capacity levels are understood and maintained. Target coastal management risks to established infrastructure. Limit new coastal vulnerabilities by restricting coastal dwellings and access to highly vulnerable coastal ecosystems.
Final Word
New knowledge to guide adaptation to climate change will be vital. At the same time, the incredible wealth of knowledge that is held by Anangu and other local people throughout the AW NRM region must not be overlooked. A major challenge is presented to indigenous NRM that extends beyond isolated, piecemeal scientific climate change adaptation projects that sit as exceptional and secluded rockpools upon a broad and desiccated plain of social marginalisation and ecological risk. By fully integrating traditional knowledge and practice to link marginalised communities with new experiments in adapting to future risk, indigenous NRM could provide an infrastructure across rangeland Australia that has not existed previously and help ensure that the winds blow in the right direction for some of the most disadvantaged people in Australia. Federal Caring for Country policy, with its appropriate focus on indigenous NRM, is initiating that process. How the new adaptation stories are applied and sung by stakeholders and advocates, such as regional NRM bodies, to link knowledge across that dry plain will be the key to managing future risk to people and country.
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Table 3 – Summary of Vulnerability, Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Options and Suggested Example Projects for the AW NRM region
NRM Sector Flood Surface Groundwater Biodiversity Biodiversity Invasive Species Land Desertification Coasts Management Water Conservation (North) Conservation (South) Management - Grazing Vulnerability Medium-High Medium- Medium Medium Medium-High Medium-High Medium Medium Low-Medium High Climate Increase in ratio More Groundwater Changes in timing of key Changes in timing of key Increased disturbance Increased Increased wind Rising sea level may Change of larger floods ephemeral recharge likely breeding/ flowering cycles breeding & flowering cycles from fire and floods variability in erosion and dust erode cliffs and Impacts to smaller floods surface to decrease in due to changes in rainfall Habitat reduction due to provides niches for pasture growth, generation beaches at faster Increase in flood waters South Key refuge areas in the altered water and fire invasive species reduced Increased mobility rates. variability, with Salt lakes Uncertain but Central Ranges may be regimes Native species will palatability, and of sand dunes Storm surges will larger flood likely to potential altered Stronger competition of become more reduced rainfall Loss of run-on and significantly increase events and re-fill more increase of Habitat reduction due to from exotic plant & stressed and less could lower groundwater- Sensitive coastal longer dry rarely and groundwater altered water and fire mammal species competitive carrying capacity dependent ecosystems, such as periods become recharge in regimes Large changes in Changed climate may Water for vegetation, salt marshes, may not more North Stronger competition of ecosystem composition if suit exotic species livestock may leading to be able to retreat fast saline from exotic plant & thresholds of aridity are more than natives become scarcer increased soil enough to keep pace mammal species passed if groundwater erosion with rising sea levels. reduced Adaptation Ensure Increase Increase Fire management to Facilitate migration of Undertake more More accurate Reduce or remove Reduce Options essential protection rainwater reduce risk of large, hot species along bio-climatic scientific & community tracking of non-climatic anthropogenic community of harvesting to wildfires gradients through to based monitoring pasture & pressures pressures (off-road infrastructure rockholes supplement Facilitate migration of refuge spaces such as Implement control appropriate de- (grazing, fire, vehicles, fishing) on (generators, from feral bore water species along bio-climatic run-on & elevated places programs stocking development) on sensitive cliffs areas houses, water animals supplies gradients through to with linkages and buffers Harvest feral camel Shift to more sensitive systems Reduce grazing supplies) is Provide Monitor & refuge spaces such as Extend formal reserves populations for meat conservative (e.g. sand dunes, pressures on coastal located away more manage current run-on & elevated places and ensure potential Biological control of stocking rates to clay pans) sand dunes from flood-prone watering and new users, with linkages and buffers refuges are included invasive species minimise risk Design community Designate and protect areas points for especially Extend formal reserves Reduce external non- Reduce pressures Phasing out of settlements to inland areas for salt- native mining and ensure potential climatic pressures such as grazing, grazing during minimise impacts marsh ecosystems to animals refuges are included Identify and protect rare disturbance from extended from dust storms retreat. Reduce external non- run-on and groundwater roads etc. on native periods of low and dune climatic pressures such as dependent ecosystems species rainfall encroachment grazing & hunting Suggested Determine and Determine Install rainwater Regular comprehensive Regular comprehensive Develop Formalise and Determine, Monitor dune Example map flood prone current tanks as biological surveys biological surveys understanding of local monitor pastoral monitor and movement and Projects areas based on longevity supplement to Identify conservation Identify conservation perceptions of licences, with assess key slow accretion/erosion, and an agreed of surface bore water, priority reserve areas and priority reserve areas and invasive exotic agreed limits to variables of cliff retreat/collapse, increased design waters, particularly in refuges refuges species stocking desertification to identify key areas flood risk and the South Develop better Develop better Support programs to densities based processes to of conservation Establish prioritise Monitor understanding of how understanding of how identify biological on actual and determine long importance monitoring protection groundwater to climate influences climate influences control agents for projected term drivers of Establish retreat stations on for the determine net biodiversity biodiversity most aggressive rangeland change zones for primary most water recharge/ Use indicator systems & Use indicator systems & invasive species condition developments and ephemeral rivers permanent extraction rates species to monitor change species to monitor change Research natural systems such to determine flow areas. Work on specific, local Work on specific, local opportunities to exploit as dunes and salt- rates and inform participatory management participatory management invasive species, marshes models projects projects including camel harvesting.
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Important negative and irreversible impacts on natural resources could result from climate change due to the lack of coordinated planning and action at regional levels. If climate change is only considered as a separate issue, rather than a change that could fundamentally alter NRM, with the potential to undermine sustainable systems, it will not be widely incorporated into planning and investment until change is significantly apparent. After major change is underway it may be too late to implement effective adaptation options. For that reason, the major recommendation that emerges from this work is that all NRM planners and managers should begin to own climate change as a reality, even while the specific manifestations of such change are uncertain. They should recognise that simple responses to the complexity of climate change are likely to be lacking in the short-term. The AW NRM region will need resilient, flexible NRM systems.
Individuals and groups will need to begin to apply a learning orientation to climate change in order to incorporate appropriate responses into their processes, rather than expecting that knowledge and information external to regional governance and management systems will be able to directly guide specific long-term adaptation responses – the uncertainty of future climate change and its impacts on regional NRM is just too great. To respond to the substantial uncertainty, there should be an emphasis on the need for new discoveries, ideas and responses across the AW NRM region, including:
1) Incorporation of climate change into risk management in the short-term.
2) The application of adaptive management and planning techniques and the precautionary principle, for the longer-term.
While new knowledge to guide adaptation to climate change will be vital, the incredible wealth of knowledge that is held by Anangu and other local people throughout the AW NRM region must not be overlooked. By fully integrating traditional knowledge and practice to link remote knowledge, marginalised communities and new experiments in adapting to future risk, indigenous NRM could provide an infrastructure across rangeland Australia that has not existed previously.
Image 4. A dry river bed on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo: D Bardsley)
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2. Introduction
The Alinytjara Wilurara (AW) Natural Resources Management (NRM) region in northwest South Australia (SA) incorporates many important and productive species, systems and landscapes across a vast area, exceeding a quarter of a million square kilometres (AW NRM Board 2010). The region is approximately the same size as the United Kingdom or, in the western hemisphere, the state of Michigan in the United States. Within this area live a population of approximately 2000 people, mostly of Pitjantjatjara, Yankunytjatjara and Ngaanyatjaara descent, who refer to themselves collectively as Anangu (which translates as ‘people’ in Pitjantjatjara) and will be the term used throughout this report to refer to the local aboriginal population (AW NRM Board 2010).
As is typical for the world’s desert regions, most people live on the more humid semi-arid fringe, to the North in the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara (APY) lands and in the South, the areas of Yalata and Nullarbor, and community centres to the East of the region (Figures 1, 2 and 4)(Brown et al. 2008). Between the North and South semi-arid sub-regions, which are the foci of this report, lies the more arid (with average annual rainfall generally less than 200mm per annum) and sparsely populated Great Victoria Desert (Figure 4). These three major subdivisions can be further divided into different landscape types as outlined in Figure 2. The winter-dominant rainfall areas in the South including areas 1-5 on Figure 2, the summer-dominant rainfall areas in the North including areas 7-9 on Figure 2, and a central area of the Great Victoria Desert exists (area 6 on Figure 2), in which there is very low rainfall, which has no dominant seasonal pattern.
Figure 4. Australian average annual rainfall indicating Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management Region (source: BOM 2011)
The vast size, low density of population, and remoteness of this region all matter for climate change adaptation – providing benefits such as relative isolation from invasion by alien, exotic plant and animal species, and reducing the chances of intensive human disturbance. However, the marginality of the region also confers disadvantages when it comes to developing or maintaining capacity to respond to management or planning needs. For example, the provision of services such as accommodation, water or sanitation can be difficult and expensive. Moreover, when impacts
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such as invasive species such as camels and buffel grass, or the impacts of mining and associated exploration do encroach on remote areas (detailed below), often the extent of problems are not monitored closely or managed directly. Therefore the challenges for NRM in the AW region are often enormous and the low density of human habitation means that impacts may not be recognised, monitored or responded to rapidly and/or effectively. Knowledge is simultaneously strongly traditional and comprehensive, but is being challenged by generational change and changes to traditional culture. Simultaneously, modern scientific information is relatively limited in scale and scope for such a vast area.
The identification of impacts of climate change, already highly uncertain, within the context of imperfectly understood natural systems makes the integrated vulnerability analysis for the region an initial iteration that will need to be further updated and reviewed as knowledge about climate change, local systems and opportunities for adaptation become clearer or is further documented.
The development of knowledge on how climate change will impact upon the AW NRM region needs to be an ongoing process, and by making this a living document that is built upon as information becomes available it will allow for active learning about how to respond to the challenge ahead.
The semi-arid lands already define a space that is typified by high climatic variability and extremes of heat, low and uncertain rainfall, cold winter nights leading to frosts, and associated environmental conditions that are often prefixed by words such as “harsh”, “unforgiving” and “desolate” (Image 5). Yet, there is also an increasing realisation, as Heathcote (1994:159) states, “the systems are marked less by stability than by resilience – that is their ability to persist in the face of the occurrence of random environmental fluctuations.” Similarly, Verstraete et al. (2009, 422) note that global drylands are typified by “unpredictability, resource scarcity, sparse populations, and remoteness from global markets and from centres of political power,” but go on to conclude (p. 427) that drylands “are not ‘deserts’ in the sense of being wastelands devoid of life and opportunity, but are places of value to both their immediate inhabitants and the global community.” An ongoing understanding of the stochastic or “chancy” nature of the AW NRM region’s climate will be fundamental to adapting to future climate change.
Image 5. The semi-arid rangelands of the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo: D Bardsley)
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Unlike most of the more densely settled regions of SA, which are strongly influenced by relatively reliable Mediterranean climatic conditions of dominant autumn-winter-spring rains and hot, dry summers, the semi-arid lands of the AW NRM have highly variable rainfall. As a consequence of that variable rainfall, vital ecological events such as the creation of run-off/run-on and rockpools, increased grassland productivity, tree flowering and fruiting or mammal, bird and predator numbers are all largely determined, or at least triggered, by rainfall events (Holmgren et al. 2006; Stafford- Smith et al. 2007; Box et al. 2008; Morton et al. 2011).
While acknowledging the projections of increased heat with future climate change, in a region defined by extreme hot and dry and conditions, and the likelihood of a range of other changes, this review focuses on the role of climate change on rainfall patterns, both as the source of fecundity in the region, and to a large extent, as a creator of risk in the forms of storm and flood events and the increasing pressures of livestock and invasive animals and plants, changing fire and flood regimes, and the associated impacts on Anangu communities. Importantly, and unlike almost all other NRM regions in SA, the AW NRM region, especially in the Central Ranges in the North, may experience an increase in average annual rainfall even as rainfall events become more rare and variable with future climate change (Image 6). For that reason, climate change in such systems and landscapes could mean something fundamentally different to the more densely settled regions of SA, where it is the change to the reliability/predictability of the Mediterranean climatic systems that leads to risk.
Image 6. The Central Ranges of the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands from the air (Photo: D Bardsley)
Unlike the south of SA where a drying trend is projected, in most of the Alinytjara Wilurara NRM region an intensification of rainfall patterns of extreme variability and uncertainty can be expected, rather than the weakening of reliable, seasonal patterns.
To date, there has been little work examining the specific risks to NRM that might eventuate from climate change in the AW NRM region. However, it is possible to speculate upon NRM scenarios resulting from the climate change projections. The report reviews projected changes to different NRM systems as a result of future climate change, and outlines rational arguments as to how
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vulnerable NRM systems will be to those changes. Vulnerability assessments are developed by applying a methodology outlined by The Allen Consulting Group (2005), which involves investigating the available scientific evidence of climate change risks to NRM systems, with projections for change, in part from Suppiah et al. (2006) and McInnes et al. (2003), and comparing with important documentary evidence and input from key stakeholders, primarily from fieldwork undertaken on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara (APY) lands. Therefore the assessments are rational analyses of the available scientific evidence for projected climate change impacts on systems for 2030, which link climate change projections to respective sectoral issues and provide a baseline for discussion of the impacts that are likely to be most important to respective sectors. It is possible to respond to the uncertainty of climate change by considering the key NRM processes and examining whether projected climate change will lead to critical impacts.
While some relevant case studies were available from within the AW NRM region to support more detailed analysis, in most cases that information was not available or, because the scientific information is based on projections of future scenarios, the outcomes were still highly uncertain. More work is required to define biophysical thresholds and system vulnerabilities to enable detailed assessments of the very complex issues.
Further, more targeted and detailed vulnerability analyses will be required for all key natural resource assets and industries in the AW NRM region in the future.
This review is an initial step to broaden understanding of projected climate change impacts on NRM in the AW region. The management of natural resources often involves complex processes and requires detailed supportive research to fully understand the causes, impacts and wider consequences of particular pressures. It is important also to note that there will be both negative and positive impacts on natural resource systems and management practices as a result of climate change. Therefore, in particular cases more detailed analyses will be required for better understanding of how responses should be targeted. Specific impacts of climate change, issues relating to vulnerability, and adaptation options for different NRM sectors are outlined below in relation to different sectors and hazards. The sectors were representative of the range of issues that were influenced by the AW NRM Board’s planning and investment into the management of natural resources. Some of the impacts are not issues for which the Board has direct responsibility, especially fire and flood risk to communities and some associated aspects of social vulnerability, but are still of vital related interest to sustainable NRM within the remote region, because of the AW NRM Board’s important roles in fire and water management in the natural environment, and community engagement.
There are aspects of the AW NRM region that make the region unique for an analysis of climate change impacts. The history of human settlement of the region, both prior to and post European colonisation, has been typified by the need to manage environmental risk (Heathcote 1994; Hiscock 1994, Robinson et al. 2003). That raises a couple of vital, early points that should be sitting in the mind throughout the reading of the report, and should not be discounted as important to the capacity of the AW NRM region to adapt to and exploit opportunities from climate change.
The first is that the local ecosystems are highly adapted to wide variations in climatic conditions within a generally semi-arid climate. Traditionally, Anangu have needed to manage climatic risk in a way that many within modern society have forgotten or discounted (Davies et al. 2008; Stafford Smith et al. 2008). Verstraete et al. (2009, 423) state that “an undervalued resource of drylands is
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the accumulated local knowledge for adapting to, and coping with, the limitations of life in these areas.” Many people in the AW NRM region must already confront extreme heat, poor quality water supplies, limited nutrition, a lack of financial resources and a range of other socio-ecological risks, irrespective of future climate change (HORSCATSIA 2004; Stafford-Smith et al. 2008; APY 2009). Robinson et al. (2003, 22) note that “For Anangu, their lives have traditionally been fashioned by the unpredictability of rainfall. In good seasons plants flourish producing abundant quantities of mai [food] and animal numbers and distribution increase dramatically. During periods of no rain (drought) animals die out along with their food plants and then, following good rains, re-establish. Traditionally Anangu were reasonably resistant to these climatic fluctuations, through their knowledge of the country and ability to move to various locations where specific food and water resources were more accessible.” Still, new extremes of heat, dry or wet periods would challenge the capacity of Anangu to maintain local natural resources, secure communities, and live from the land (EP NRM 2009). Traditional responses to risk and periods of depleted natural resources, such as temporary migration, may no longer be directly relevant to many people living within remote communities.
While most people in the settled areas of Australia act as though they are largely free to discount such ecological risks, with the occasional grievance with heat, fire or flood, for many indigenous people in remote communities in Australia, an understanding of ecological risk is vital and important when undertaking such relatively mundane activities as driving from one community to another, accessing food and water, or mustering cattle (Hill and Williams 2009). The fact that risk cannot be discounted on a day-to-day basis within the AW NRM region provides Anangu and the AW NRM Board with an opportunity to better recognise and monitor many systems that are already resilient and adaptive to change. As the rest of South Australia must acknowledge and begin to manage a new level ecological risk (Bardsley and Rogers 2011), in many ways Anangu already have considerable knowledge and ability to manage the challenging present and uncertain future. The very marginality of the AW NRM region, which for example, is not even considered in the SA government’s assessment of the state biosecurity maps, means that Australia has a lot to learn from Anangu people about how to manage the environment and socio-ecological risk. Also, the isolation and abundance of relatively intact, natural environments mean that unlike most of the rest of the state, natural systems can still be researched and monitored to learn how the environment will respond to climate change without direct anthropogenic influences.
The second point relates to the limitations of adaptation. This review addresses climate change impacts and adaptation options for NRM, and is not a review of climate change impacts on indigenous communities themselves. It would however, be insufficient to examine the implications of climate change on socio-ecological systems and not make clear that for many within the region, poverty and challenging social circumstances are pervasive (see HORSCATSIA 2004; Bishop et al. 2009; Moran and Elvin 2009; EP NRM Board 2009). Much is being written on the vulnerability of poor and marginalised communities as they try to effectively manage the impacts of hazards or the change in natural resource conditions with climate change (Davies et al. 2008). While it is hoped that this review could be used to inform a similarly important analysis of the current and likely future impacts of environmental change on the health and livelihoods of the indigenous communities of the AW NRM region, that is largely beyond the scope of this study.
It is also important to remember that management of environmental change over the next 20 years within the AW NRM region, which represents the scope of this review, will be significantly influenced by the limited resources and extreme isolation of the region and its people (Robins and Dovers 2007). For that reason, the social limitations of adaptation in the AW NRM region will be considerable, and contrast directly with the capacity of other regions of SA to adapt to climate
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change, particularly the Adelaide-Mt Lofty Ranges NRM region that has undertaken earlier vulnerability assessment and adaptation research (Bardsley 2006; Bardsley and Sweeney 2010; Bardsley and Rogers 2011). It might however, be of interest to read that work and think about the social issues of climate change adaptation for marginalised, vulnerable communities, in comparison to the adaptive capacities of the Greater Adelaide region. For example, the Adelaide-Mt Lofty Ranges NRM region has over a million people within 3880 square kilometres, and has significantly more funding to undertake NRM activities (Robins and Dovers 2007). In comparison, just driving the vast distances of the AW region is a critical Occupational Health and Safety issue for people undertaking NRM work in the region.
The adaptation options proposed in this report will need to be read in the context of the considerable constraints to the application of effective adaptation responses in the AW NRM region. Many of these are conventional limits to development associated with low levels of local financial capital and widespread relative poverty and isolation. Others are what could be considered alternative future risks associated not only with climate and related environmental change, but future health, demographic, resource and policy issues (see Conclusion – Social vulnerability section). Once again, a comprehensive review of these other future risks is beyond the scope of this report but nevertheless need to be considered in the context of future management. That is one of the big problems with responses to climate change – there is an assumption that our society is so close to developing and implementing effective management responses to current environmental issues, that adaptation to future climate change will involve relatively minor re- adjustments on the margins of functioning systems. Perhaps in some cases, the gaps between the goals of social and environmental policy and the current outcomes are already so significant that systems could already be considered unsustainable, irrespective of future climate change. Such gaps in parts of the AW NRM region are not trivial and must not continue to be discounted when considering the new, potentially massive risks associated with future anthropogenic climatic change. The following section details the aim of the review and how it could be potentially be utilised in the future.
The purpose of this review: Analysing the vulnerability of AW NRM to climate change
The review focuses on analysing the impacts of projected climate change on the region, and the likely vulnerability of those impacts on the natural resource management systems in the AW NRM region. This review of current knowledge of climate change impacts on NRM for the AW regional NRM Board has multiple aims: to increase the region's awareness of the need for change by reviewing projected impacts of climate change on NRM in the AW region; to identify research that is being undertaken to improve understanding of particular NRM impacts of climate change and opportunities for adaptation; to inform AW NRM planning; to identify key gaps in knowledge and inform future NRM research; to inform management initiatives for NRM and other regional systems; to provide a baseline of current climate change knowledge for the region, to be developed as further information becomes available and impacts become clearer; and to provide climate change analysis, awareness raising and planning material suitable to stimulate public discussion. This review examines NRM vulnerabilities to climate change, with emphasis on the bio-physical opportunities for reducing the sensitivity to change in the shorter term and applying adaptation
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options in the longer term. Of major importance are critical biophysical, socio-economic and management thresholds, or the levels of exposure at which systems can no longer absorb the changes in climatic conditions without fundamental reductions in the provision of key products or services. The rate and extent of climate change currently affecting and/or likely to affect the AW region become important aspects of its NRM vulnerability. The impacts of an enhanced greenhouse effect on NRM will be complex and interactive. In many ways the emerging and anticipated pressures on our natural resources enhance the need to incorporate broadly sustainable ecological management approaches into NRM more generally. SA has worked to develop such an approach via an integrated NRM management model (DWLBC 2006). As climate change will be an umbrella issue that will significantly influence most NRM processes, it may be increasingly difficult to dissociate issues of climate change from other important NRM issues in the AW region. Responses to climate change can be incorporated into integrated management approaches and governance structures. Some of the risk responses will be relatively simple to manage or would be useful anyway (so called ‘no regret’ approaches), whereas other issues will require fundamental and, occasionally, expensive changes to management practices across communities, industries and regions. Such long-term planning and investment will require informed projections, particularly in sectors such as community infrastructure, water and biodiversity management.
If climate change is only considered as a separate issue, rather than a change that could fundamentally alter NRM, with the potential to undermine sustainable systems, it will not be widely incorporated into planning and investment until change is significantly apparent. Important negative and irreversible impacts on natural resources could result from climate change due to the lack of coordinated planning and action at regional levels.
The IPCC defines vulnerability as “The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity” (McCarthy et al. 2001). A range of approaches is available for assessing the vulnerability of systems to climate change (Dessai et al. 2005). Some of these approaches focus strongly on modelled climate projections, while others focus on adaptation to short-term climate variability based on risk assessments of current climates. Here, a methodology has been followed for vulnerability assessments (Figure 5), which largely follows that outlined in a report for the Australian Government by The Allen Consulting Group (2005). The report utilises and also advocates a basic framework for initially assessing vulnerability. The vulnerability analyses that follow in this report provide an overview of potential impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation options across the different NRM sectors. Due to the scale of the region, much of the vulnerability analysis presented here is at a landscape scale, but we have chosen throughout to use example communities, systems, places and species so that the general discussion of vulnerability is given specific and local context. Most of these examples are focussed in the North, because of the experience of the researchers and the opportunity to undertake workshops in the APY Lands. The sensitivity of the management systems to the adaptation approaches will vary considerably, but that type of detailed analysis is the role of local and regional on-ground and modelled research and not for this review. The integrated vulnerability analyses presented here are based on rational analysis of the available scientific evidence, and should be seen as initial assessments to engage regional stakeholders, rather than be a final word on the vulnerabilities of the region. Many of the analyses cannot be based directly on existing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on particular NRM systems, because that information is rarely available, but rather are developed by comparing knowledge of regional
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systems and trends in their condition, with available projections of future climate change and detailed studies of similar systems elsewhere. To strengthen the local context, where possible both local and traditional knowledge were integrated into the analyses.
Figure 5. Process used for vulnerability analyses (source: The Allen Consulting Group 2005)
Exposure Sensitivity
Adaptive Potential Impact: +ve & -ve Capacity
Vulnerability
Exposure: relates to the important weather events, stimuli, and patterns that affect a system, and to broader influences such as the background climate conditions against which a system operates and any changes in those conditions. Exposure is influenced by a combination of the probability and magnitude of climate change. Sensitivity: reflects the responsiveness of systems to climatic influences and the degree to which changes in climate might affect it in its current form; the threshold points at which effects will be exhibited, whether change will occur in trends or steps and whether they will be reversible. Adaptive capacity: reflects the capacity of a system to change in a way that makes it better equipped to deal with external influences via either autonomous or planned adaptation.
A series of workshops were undertaken with local Anangu stakeholders in conjunction with the AW NRM Board in the western APY Lands during the week 21-28th March, 2011. The workshops focussed on discussing with local Anangu and non-Anangu people the implications of climatic drivers on the community, their environments and management activities. Questions from those workshops are outlined in Appendix 1 and the summary notes taken are presented in Appendix 2. Quotes from these workshops are incorporated throughout the report and these comments are cited according to community and date. Other climate change discussions undertaken by the AW NRM Board were also supported in the eastern APY during the week 3rd-9th April, 2011, but notes from those workshops are not included here. As non-Anangu researchers external to the traditions of Anangu, the authors are very mindful and grateful for the sharing of that knowledge and no claims are made to that traditional knowledge in any form. Ethics approval for the research was sought prior to the workshops from the Human Research Ethics Committee of The University of Adelaide, and was deemed ethically unproblematic. The work also examines opportunities for adaptation to climate change impacts, defined here as action in response to, or anticipation of, climate change to reduce or avoid adverse consequences or to take advantage of beneficial changes. The majority of adaptation actions are associated with developing the resilience of systems, and thereby reducing the sensitivity, and enhancing the adaptive capacity of management systems. All NRM systems have a coping range, or some inherent level of resilience (McCarthy et al. 2001). As climatic conditions change, the coping range
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of systems may be exceeded and natural resources may be degraded as a result. Societal processes reliant on that resource will also be at risk. There are still substantial uncertainties about the levels and manifestations of an enhanced Greenhouse effect (Pittock 2003, Lempert et al. 2004, Solomon et al. 2007). There is also substantial uncertainty about the way changes to climate will affect our society: our environments, industries, settlements and lifestyles. Irrespective of this uncertainty regarding climate change, policy makers and managers need to support sustainable change management. It is increasingly being acknowledged that effective adaptation in the context of significant uncertainty requires decision-makers to: attempt to integrate what is known about climate change; examine and learn about the scientific and policy uncertainties in the short-term; and, begin to respond to the largely unknowable long-term requirements. Key governance challenges will be both to begin to put in place effective adaptation options prior to the full extent of climate change becoming obvious, because timely application is now what will be required, and also, ensure that funding and action is sustained for adaptation over extended periods, even when the costs could be substantial. Such early and long-term adaptation will be difficult without understanding integrated systemic responses and targeting those systems and places most vulnerable to change. The work here aims to support decision-making by reducing the uncertainty as to how the AW NRM region will be affected. Due to layers of uncertainty regarding climate change science, and, yet, recognition that climate change could have major impacts on society, responses are often embedded in a broader risk management approach based on the Precautionary Principle (Fowler 2004). The Precautionary Principle advocates that just because we are uncertain of a particular situation, trend or likely outcome, planning or actions still should be taken to reduce the risks of possible hazards (Rao 2000). In other words, the Precautionary Principle should be applied and action undertaken to mitigate risk in cases where there are: threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty, and, cost-effective measures to prevent the impact of the hazard. A precautionary approach acknowledges that policies or actions that fail to take into account future risk could place a greater burden on societies than implementing strategies to respond to risk in the short-term. This is largely the approach that is being adopted by Australian governments, regions and industry stakeholders to develop and guide adaptation responses to climate change for NRM, and the regional strategic and investment strategies of the Board must also increasingly incorporate climate change risks into their analysis. The challenge now is to identify what level of caution to build into planning and management guidelines, because the situation in relation to our knowledge of climate risk is shifting rapidly. A specific example is outlined in relation to sea-level rise (see Coastal Management section). As the review of Coastal risk section also identifies, what may have been perceived as a Precautionary Approach previously, could be seen as unable to alleviate future risk due to changing predictions of climate change impacts. By weighing up the risks of actions and inactions, informed decisions can be made regarding the manner and extent of appropriate responses. As the form and extent of climate change becomes clearer, policy that recognises and responds to the need for trade-offs between short and long-term goals for NRM could become more applicable. Greenhouse gas mitigation issues do not form a large part of the discussion here, as they are being broadly considered elsewhere (see for example Preston and Jones 2006; SA Government 2011). While mitigation is recognised as vitally important, this review does not examine the potential impacts of policy changes aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. Such changes may
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significantly change regulatory environments and in consequence, affect NRM activities that produce significant amounts of greenhouse gases. The report is structured to guide the reader through an analysis of climate change and a discussion of related impacts on NRM systems. Initially in Chapter 3, the climatic characteristics of the region are detailed, along with the implications of projected climate change on dominant climatic conditions. Chapters 4 through to 8 analyse the implications of those climate change impacts on the different NRM sectors that are representative of the range of issues that the AW NRM Board will need to plan for and manage within the region. Several hazards including floods, bushfires, invasive species, and risks associated with land management are examined as separate key issues because they influence vital components of the AW Board’s work. Some of these issues are not a direct responsibility of the Board, but are still of vital related interest to sustainable NRM within the region and the state of SA. In fact, many of these issues are national and international in scope and also raise significant NRM governance issues at those scales, particularly for climate change adaptation for indigenous communities elsewhere.
Image 7. A Southern Right Whale (Eubalaena australis) off the South Australian coast (Photo: D Bardsley)
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3. Projected Climate change for the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management Region
3.1 Existing climate conditions for the AW NRM region
Climate change projections for the AW NRM region suggest that a warming trend can be expected for the region, as can longer, drier dry periods and more major rainfall events. The exposure of the AW NRM region to climate change will vary considerably across the vast region, but unlike the projections for most of SA, some of the elements of change may be positive in that large areas in the North may receive more rainfall. The region is vast and although almost completely semi-arid, the form that the rainfall pattern takes across the region varies considerably. Considerable detail is presented in relation to past and projected climate for the region here, because the report suggests that a simple classification of climate change for the region as presented in Suppiah et al. (2006) is too imprecise for this review, given the significantly different systems affecting the North and South of the region. In fact, the review attempts to examine projected change in some greater detail by dividing most analyses between the summer-rainfall dominant ‘North’ and the winter-rainfall dominant ‘South’.
Table 4. Annual climate statistics at six points in and around the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region (source: BOM 2011)
Mean Mean Mean number Mean Mean daily Meteor- Mean Decile 1 number of days Mean number Mean number evapor- ological rainfall rainfall+ of days of rain Max. of days Min. of days ation Office# (mm) (mm) of rain >10mm Temp. >35°C Temp. <0°C (mm) Giles* 282.1 142 47.1 8.2 29.3 101.9 15.9 0.4 9.6 Ernabella 274.3 98.2 38.1 8 26.8 51.2 11.9 15.4 - Cook 183 99.6 48.3 4.4 25.9 52.3 10 4 - Maralinga 224.2 122.5 52.6 5.3 25.4 38.6 11.8 0.4 - Nullarbor 247.5 146.1 75.3 3.1 23.7 28.8 10.6 2.2 - Ceduna* 296.8 195.6 92.6 7 23.4 29 10.4 4.1 6.3 # See Figure 1 for locations of Meteorological Offices. + Denotes average rainfall during those 10% of years which receive the lowest rainfall on record at the site. * Denotes that these meteorological offices are external to the AW NRM region, but as Meteorological Offices they provide reasonable proxy data for nearby areas within the region.
The average annual statistics hide important and large inter-and intra-annual variation in climate. There are, on average, hotter maximum temperatures to the North of the AW region, with a trend to lower maxima to the coastal South (Table 4). While the variability of rainfall is already very high, there are important general patterns that can be observed in the region. From North at the SA/Northern Territory (NT) Border and the APY lands, to the south coast and the Nullarbor and Yalata areas, there is a trend from summer dominated rainfall to winter dominated rainfall (Figure 1)(Robinson et al. 2003; Hutchinson et al. 2005; Quigley et al. 2010; BOM 2011). The different climate conditions from North to South across the AW NRM region is also why the APY Lands fall within the BWh Koppen-Geiger climate classification, defined as a dry, hot desert climate, while the South is classified as BSH, a dry, hot steppe climate, where the heat and rates of evaporation are not as extreme, especially in the summer months (Strahler and Strahler 2002). The Central Ranges in the North, which include the highest mountains in SA, also experience more frosts than other
31 31 areas. As Figure 6 reveals, while similarly low annual rainfall is experienced in Ernabella and Nullarbor (274.3mm and 247.5mm respectively) the timing of that rainfall varies considerably because they are divided by over 550 kilometres in a north-south direction (see Figure 1). As will be discussed at length below, the timing of precipitation at each location will be influenced by future climate change in fundamentally different ways.
Figure 6. Comparison of mean maximum temperatures and rainfall at Ernabella# (Pukatja) and Nullarbor (source: BOM 2011)
40 70 Ernabella (new) - 35 Mean Rainfall
60 C) ° Ernabella (old) -
30 50 Mean Rainfall
25 Nullarbor - Mean 40 Rainfall 20 30 Ernabella (new) - 15 Mean Max. MeanRainfall (mm) Temperature 20 10 Mean MaximumMean Temperature ( 5 10
0 0 Ernabella (new): Station ID 016097, 1997- 2011 Ernabella (old): Station ID 016013, 1938- 1983 Nullarbour: Station ID 018106, Temp. 1986-2011, Rainfall 1888-2011
# Two different stations record meteorological data for Ernabella, defined here as new and old. While there is a strong similarity in mean temperatures recorded at the two stations, mean summer rainfall suggests some major differences.
The recognition of the major north-south division across the AW NRM region is important to understanding how climate change will impact upon the region. As can be seen in Figure 7, the North receives more rainfall in the summer and the South in winter. The North is also more likely to receive that rainfall in few major events, associated with monsoonal activity in the summer months and Northwest cloudbands, as indicated by the increasing mean number of rain days as you move from north to south (Table 4)(Wright 1997). Throughout the AW region and especially in the North the average annual evaporation greatly exceeds the average annual precipitation, generally by an order of magnitude (BOM 2011, Box et al. 2008; Tietjen and Jeltsch 2007). Therefore, the Central Ranges in the APY lands are more likely to be extremely hot, but with short, cold winters, and receive more unreliable rainfall, especially in the summer months in a few major, but highly unpredictable, rainfall events (Robinson et al. 2003). In contrast, the Nullarbor Plain, Yalata and Yellabinna regions, the South of the AW NRM region, receive fewer very hot days, more reliable winter rainfall (especially along the coastal fringe) with a strong influence of the Mediterranean rainfall pattern, and lower rates of evapotranspiration (McKenzie et al. 1989).
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Figure 7. Average Summer and Winter rainfall for Australia indicating Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region (Source: BOM 2011)
The Great Victoria Desert that divides the North and South sub-regions is much more arid and very sparsely populated. The rainfall is generally below 200mm in this sub-region, and as can be seen in Figure 8, rainfall is more evenly distributed throughout the year, as indicated by the data from Maralinga, which sits on the edge of the Great Victoria Desert. Pell et al. (1999, 289) note that “The climate in the Great Victoria Desert is semi-arid to arid. Erratic rainfall averages 150-230 mm per year, with potential evaporation averages of 2.8-3.3m per year.” Pell et al. (1999, 298) go on to point out in regards to the Great Victoria Desert that “the prevailing wind direction now and for at least the past 260 000 years is from the west.”
# Figure 8. Comparison of mean rainfall at Ernabella (Pukatja) and Maralinga (source: BOM 2011)
70
60
50
40
30 Ernabella - Mean Rainfall Maralinga - Mean Rainfall 20
10
0 Ernabella: Station ID 016097, 1997-2011 Maralinga: Station ID 018114, 1955-2010
# Only “new” Ernabella rainfall data used to construct this graph
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3.2 Climate change projections for the AW NRM region
Even in the best-case scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and CSIRO models, we can still expect substantial change in SA's climate in the 21st Century (Solomon et al. 2007, Suppiah et al. 2007). While projected changes to climate are synthesised here, there are many uncertainties regarding the rates and extents of change and the form that climate change will take. Although there is significant uncertainty regarding the specific impacts of climate change on the AW NRM region, there are broad conclusions that can be drawn from the projections for future climate across the region. There have already been some excellent, introductory scientific and modelled reviews of projected climate change for SA by CSIRO, namely work by McInnes et al. (2003) and Suppiah et al. (2006). It is not the role of this report to present all of the findings already outlined in the CSIRO reports, but this review does draw heavily from their modelling of future climate, and integrates this information with other NRM research and traditional knowledge about the AW region. That said, the science of projecting future climate change is always likely to be highly uncertain, because of the uncertain social responses to reducing Greenhouse gas emissions and the unpredictability of environmental reactions to the driver of increasing concentrations of Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Therefore, the projections are only guides of possible future change (Schneider 2004). Information is being updated all the time, and the data and discussion here will need to be updated as that material becomes available. Experienced trends in climatic and natural resource condition, and both past and new observations also provide vital information for the AW NRM region, but more could be done to monitor changing conditions over time across the vast area.
Irrespective of the uncertain future of climate change, many of the indicators of climate change are suggesting that measurable change is broadly apparent globally. The specific impacts of climate change will differ enormously across space and time. For that reason, when examining the implications of climate change on the AW NRM region, we focus on projections to the year 2030, a time period that presents a reasonable management timeframe for NRM planning. However, it should also be noted in almost all cases, the climatic trends due to an enhanced Greenhouse Effect will continue on, and become more marked as the century progresses.
The likely impacts of climate change on semi-arid lands remain unclear, but as will be discussed in some detail below, certain trends in evidence are emerging. We divide many of the details of climatic change and associated impacts on NRM sectors into two sub-regions: the impacts on the semi-arid, summer rainfall dominated subregion to the North and the semi-arid, winter rainfall dominated subregion to the South. As already discussed, the North will be more strongly influenced by changes to semi-arid Central Australia caused by the Australian monsoonal system, as this is the major driver of rain-bearing weather systems in that sub-region, and is likely to remain so. For some time, different studies have projected Central Australia to: get wetter due to greater humidity in the atmosphere; drier due to shifts in rainfall patterns and increasing evapotranspiration; or, simply to experience greater rainfall variability (Heathcote 1994). There is therefore, significant uncertainty as to what might happen to climate in the North. Clearer is the impact of climate change on the Mediterranean climate of the South, where the southern Australian Mediterranean climatic system is projected to experience a drying trend. Due to the quite distinctly different projections of change to rainfall patterns to the North and the South, projections and a number of the vulnerability analyses are divided in a manner that reflects this basic spatial distinction in exposure to future climate change. Issues relating to sea-level rise are dealt with in detail in the Coastal Management section.
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Projected Changes to Temperature and Evapotranspiration
Before we examine the specific impacts on the North and the South, there will be some universal impacts. The projected impacts of climate change on temperature in SA are summarised in Figure 9. CSIRO climate projections suggest an average annual warming of 0.4o to 2oC over most of Australia by 2030 (McInnes et al. 2003; Suppiah et al. 2006). Although variability in the warming trend exists, for SA, these changes could mean that by 2030 there will be a 10–50% increase in the number of hot days, a 20–80% decrease in frost days and substantial reductions in spring rainfall (McInnes et al. 2003).
Figure 9. Average projected seasonal and annual warming changes for South Australia# (Source: Suppiah et al. 2006, IX)
# “Average seasonal and annual warming ranges (°C) for around 2030 and 2070
relative to 1990 for SRES scenarios, and CO2 concentrations stabilised at 450 ppm by 2100 and 550 ppm by 2150. The coloured bars show ranges of change for areas with corresponding colours in the maps” (Suppiah et al. 2006, IX). Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) modelling refers to the modelled projections from the IPCC. The 550 ppm and 450 ppm CSIRO modelling indicates how the different
concentrations of CO2 (in parts per million – ppm) in the atmosphere will influence climatic conditions.
There has already been considerable warming across Australia over the last century (Figure 10). As McInnes et al. (2003, p. 4) note, “Since 1950, South Australia’s average maximum temperature has increased by 0.17oC per decade, the minimum by 0.18oC per decade and the average temperature by 0.17oC per decade.” Future warming is likely to be more significant further inland, away from the buffering influence of the oceans (Suppiah et al. 2006, 25). Recent experienced trends support those projections, as Box et al. (2008, 1398) note, “Recently Central Australia has
35 35 experienced some of the most rapid climate warming observed on the Australian continent, and temperature trend maps suggest Central Australia is an area of particularly strong warming trends when measured over most periods, especially those starting prior to 1950.”
Figure 10. Trend in Australian Average Maximum temperatures (1910-2010) indicating Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region (source: BOM 2011)
Figure 11. Giles Annual Maximum Temperature Trend (source: BOM 2011)
At well as examining average trends across the Australian continent, it is possible to look at data from specific meteorological stations. Specific high-quality annual maximum temperature data trends from sites just to the northwest of the AW region (Figure 11 for Giles) and just to the southeast (Figure 12 for Ceduna) show unclear trends, with perhaps some warming at Ceduna since the 1990s. Note, however, that there is already considerable inter-annual maximum temperature variability at both locations.
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Figure 12. Ceduna Annual Maximum Temperature Trend (Source: BOM 2011)
McInnes et al. (2003) project for Ernabella that the number of days above 35°C will increase from an average of 59 per year to 65-90 per year by 2030, and days above 40°C would increase from 7 to 9-21 per year over the same period. During the same time, the number of days per year at Ernabella with minimum temperatures below 0°C would decrease from 19 to 7-15 by 2030 (McInnes et al. 2003). Suppiah et al. (2006) also project ongoing warming for the AW NRM region, especially as you move further inland away from the coast (Figure 9).
The experienced trend in increasing daytime temperatures and longer, hotter heatwaves within the AW NRM region is projected to continue, especially in the North, which includes the APY Lands.
Heat in itself, irrespective of secondary impacts on ecological and production systems, will have considerable impacts on the region’s NRM. The social capacity to maintain or support effective NRM programs may be undermined if people are struggling to undertake tasks in extreme heat conditions. Increasing levels of heat energy will also increase transpiration and evaporation levels across the AW NRM region (McInnes et al 2003; Suppiah et al. 2006).
Figure 13. Trend in Australian Annual Pan Evaporation (1970-2010) indicating Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region (source: BOM 2011)
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The semi-arid areas already have levels of potential annual evapotranspiration that greatly exceed levels of precipitation, and climate change projections and the measured trends suggest that negative net water balance will increase across the region in the future with ongoing increases in evaporation (see Figure 13). As the net moisture balance declines, even in areas of the North that could experience some more average rainfall, the range of impacts will be significant and include: the length of vegetative growth periods may decline, which means that the time periods that plants have to pass through lifecycles to generate flowers, seeds and fruits will shorten; ephemeral pools may not form as regularly or dry up more quickly, limiting opportunities for animals including livestock to access water for drinking or for aquatic species to reproduce; and many other changes which will lead to flow-on effects to ecosystems throughout the region (Box et al. 2008).
Projected Changes to Rainfall
While historical trends in the climatic records already provide evidence of changes in temperature for SA (see above and Suppiah et al. 2006, 4), the trends in rainfall are less clear, with a drier decade apparent across southern SA in the 2000s. It is important to note that the Northwest of SA, which incorporates most of the AW NRM region, has actually had a slight wetting trend in comparison to the Mediterranean climatic, more densely settled areas of SA (Figure 14). It is highly uncertain whether that experienced trend will continue in the future, but as will be discussed further below, such a trend should not be discounted when discussing future climatic conditions for the region.
Figure 14. Trend in Australian Annual Total Rainfall (1910-2010) indicating Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region (BOM 2011)
Trends in average annual rainfall are less clear from local stations at Giles and Nullarbor, but if any trend is apparent it might be an increase in average annual rainfall during the period that records are available (Figure 15). Further to east at the Goode Station, which is adjacent to Ceduna, a drying trend is more apparent, especially over the last 20 years (Figure 16).
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Figure 15. Giles and Nullarbor Average Annual Rainfall with 10 year average trend lines (source: BOM 2011)
Figure 16. Goode Average Annual Rainfall with 10 year average trend lines (source: BOM 2011)
Rainfall trends due to global climate change are more difficult to predict, and due to the difference in the influence of alternative rain-bearing systems in the AW NRM region, more strongly spatially differentiated across the region (Figure 17). Modelling for SA suggests that there is likely to be increasing rainfall variability; shorter growing seasons based on moisture availability; an increased risk of drought; and, reduced availability of water for inland regions (McInnes et al. 2003; Suppiah et al. 2006). While average rainfall is projected to decline across much of the State, the intensity of rainfall events is projected to increase and extreme rainfall events to become more frequent. Nevertheless, given the relative lack of good data and lack of knowledge concerning the semi-arid climatic systems of northern SA, the experienced trends over the previous century should be acknowledged and contrasted with projections of future drying.
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Figure 17. Average projected seasonal and annual rainfall changes (%) for South Australia# (Source: Suppiah et al. 2006, X)
# “Average seasonal and annual rainfall change (%) for 2030 and 2070 relative to 1990
for SRES scenarios, and CO2 concentrations stabilised at 450 ppm by 2100 and 550 ppm by 2150. The coloured bars show ranges of change for areas with corresponding colours in the maps” (Suppiah et al. 2006, X). Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) modelling refers to the modelled projections from the IPCC. The 550 ppm and
450 ppm CSIRO modelling indicates how the different concentrations of CO2 (in parts per million – ppm) in the atmosphere will influence climatic conditions.
Although it is beyond the scope of this report to undertake a comprehensive review of projected future climate change, it is worth outlining projections for future rainfall in Central Australian semi- arid lands (the North) and Mediterranean southern Australia (the South) in more detail. For that reason, we expand beyond a presentation of current experienced trends and projected future climatic conditions to discuss some of the likely major drivers of change. In particular, it is to be noted that this review does not directly apply the projections outlined in Figure 17, the most recent CSIRO review of climate change projections for the AW NRM region, because that work does not distinguish strongly between the North and the South of the AW region (see Suppiah et al. 2006).
There will be a fundamental difference in experienced climate change between the North and South of the AW NRM region.
There is already considerable evidence from around the world suggesting that climate change is impacting on the Mediterranean climatic systems, including systems that strongly influence rainfall patterns in the South of the AW NRM region, earlier and in a manner more severe than for most other climate types. Mediterranean systems from western North America, Southern Europe, the Cape region in South Africa, Chile and south-west Western Australia have already shown substantial drying trends since the 1970s (Bardsley and Edwards-Jones 2007). In contrast to most
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other Mediterranean climatic regions, rainfall trends in SA are unclear, with only a recent decadal drying trend apparent in coastal regions of the state and some indication of drying in more inland regions (Suppiah et al. 2006; Bardsley and Liddicoat 2008). There is some strong evidence however, to suggest that the mid-latitude rain bearing fronts have, on average, been passing further south across the Australian continent.
In comparison to the climatic conditions in Western Australia and along the east coast of Australia, the drying trend across southern Australia is only weakly correlated with the (El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole patterns (Nicholls 2010). Rather, such a change to the Mediterranean rainfall pattern is more strongly associated with the increasing intensity in the circulation of the Hadley Cell and a change in positioning and/or expanse of the sub- tropical ridge, which could lead to fundamental synoptic change within the mid-latitudinal regions of the globe (Bengtsson et al. 2006; Fu et al. 2006; Hope 2006; Archer and Caldeira 2008). Verstraete et al. (2009, 423) note that “the Hadley Cells – the long-term mean atmospheric circulation system that causes air to rise over the wet tropics and sink over the sub-tropical deserts – may intensify or extend further poleward in coming decades, thereby increasing the aridity and further reducing the productivity of these subtropical regions.” There is some confidence, therefore, that there will be an ongoing drying trend in the South of the AW NRM region, with significant reductions in average winter and spring rainfall projected for Nullarbor, Yalata and Yellabinna area (Suppiah et al. 2006; 2007). As mentioned earlier, this is important for these areas because the winter rainfall in particular is a vital component of the annual rainfall in the South, as well as a key trigger for any runoff or ecological events such as plant growth and reproduction.
It is likely that the South of the AW NRM region will experience a drying trend, especially reductions in winter and spring rainfall.
In comparison to the South, the projected rainfall trend for the North is highly uncertain (Suppiah et al. 2006; 2007). While the North of the AW NRM region is projected to more likely experience a drying trend than a wetting trend, the confidence in this projection is not strong, and the summer and autumn rains could bring greater average precipitation to the APY Lands. Once again, this is particularly important because it is during the summer that, on average, most rain falls on the North, and many important ecosystem responses are triggered by events during this wetter period. Coupled with the projected increases in evapotranspiration, there will continue to be a net moisture deficit during the summer-autumn period in the North.
There is significant uncertainty about trends in rainfall in the semi-arid areas of Central Australia. Already highly variable rainfall could become more so, with more significant rainfall events especially in the summer. For semi-arid areas of the North of the AW NRM region to receive rain, humid air must travel thousands of kilometres inland to bring moisture-laden air to the northern ranges through a process of advection. There has been a significant increase in such advection from moisture originating to the north and north-west of Australia (Drost and England 2008). This increase is associated with enhanced cyclonic activity to the Northwest of Australia (Ramsay et al. 2008).
Future climate change may accentuate the conditions that lead to greater annual rainfall in the North of the AW NRM region, but it may fall in rarer and more intense events.
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Numerous studies are attempting to understand the drivers of the cycle of wetter and drier years that pervades semi-arid areas. Large parts of the semi-arid centre of the Australian continent are strongly influenced by the ENSO, and the inter-annual cycles associated with the positioning of air pressure in the Southern Hemisphere, and associated rainfall patterns, have considerable impacts on the semi-arid ecosystems of Australia (Holmgren et al. 2006; Quigley et al. 2010). Gergis and Fowler (2009, 344) state that:
“ENSO is a periodic reorganisation of Sea Surface Temperature and atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific that results in vast redistributions of major rainfall- producing systems. Generally, El Niño (La Niña) events cause a warming (cooling) in tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans that suppresses (enhances) rainfall in western (eastern) Pacific regions.”
The interactions between regional climatic systems are very complex and still not fully understood (Paeth et al. 2008). As Quigley et al. (2010, 1094) state, “ENSO presently exerts a strong influence on precipitation and precipitation variability across much of the Australian continent, either directly or indirectly via teleconnections with other components of the ocean-atmosphere systems such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Australian summer monsoon.” Stafford-Smith et al. (2007: 20691-20692) similarly point out that:
“The Australian climate has been shown in general to be more variable than most other regions with comparable mean and seasonality of rainfall globally, but it’s an important feature in the present context is the diversity of (interacting) periodicities at which this variability is expressed. Aside from underlying intraanual and interannual variability, the occurrence of substantial wet and dry periods is associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation effect on about a 4-year periodicity (1-8 years for the 27 occurrences of El Niño during 1891-1994). However, there is good evidence that the severity of these events is modulated by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.”
If the ENSO, SAM, IOD and monsoonal patterns change significantly with future climate change, the patterns of timing and amount of rainfall will also change (Holmgren et al. 2006). Many ecological and NRM systems have adapted to the variable although relatively regular cycles, especially in the North – a point that is reiterated a number of times throughout the report. For example, as Holmgren et al. (2006, 89) note, “while recruitment of many plant species fails during dry El Niño conditions, rainy La Niña years stimulate primary productivity and woodland regeneration.” Already, Australia has been experiencing more droughts, extreme rainfall and storm events in the latter half of the Twentieth Century and the early Twenty-First Century (McInnes et al. 2003; Drost and England 2008). In particular, higher rainfall and associated flood events are associated with the La Niña phase of the ENSO on south-central Australia, and lower rainfall and associated droughts are associated with the El Niño phase (Stafford-Smith et al. 2007, Gergis and Fowler 2009, Quigley et al. 2010). These phases can last up to 10 years in duration according to a review by Gergis and Fowler (2009), who also note that strong and/or long wet or dry phases are becoming more common across Australia. Gergis and Fowler (2009, 381) conclude that “it is possible that extremes of the hydrological cycle that produce droughts and floods during ENSO events may be enhanced under future global warming.”
Although there is significant uncertainty in relation to specific climate change impacts on the ENSO (see Paeth et al. 2008), if the ENSO pattern intensifies as projected, the extreme climatic periods may become more regular for the North of the AW NRM region (McInnes et al. 2003). In the North,
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the possible intensification of the Australian summer monsoon but a reduction in mid-latitude fronts could lead to little average change in rainfall, but the strengthening ENSO pattern may mean that the regularity of extended interannual wetter and drier periods, and associated extreme events, would increase. McInnes et al (2003, 36) state:
“Extreme rainfall events and their associated flash floods in northern South Australia are major natural hazards that affect human settlements and major transportation routes. These events often occur during the Australian monsoon season when fully developed low pressure systems penetrate further south into northern South Australia. A number of climate models simulate an increase in average rainfall during the summer months and many models simulate an increase in extreme rainfall even when mean rainfall decreases under enhanced greenhouse conditions.”
The summer rainfall data from Giles, just to the northwest of the APY Lands, and from Hamilton Station, just to the east of the APY Lands, suggest current trends in rainfall in the North are inconclusive (Figure 18). However, if any trend is noticeable it might be argued that when there is a wet summer period, in association with La Niña phases in the ENSO cycle, more rainfall is received during the summer months in these locations. Once again, this suggests that there may be an intensification of the ENSO cycle – wetter periods associated with more intensive rainfall events and longer drier periods, associated with a decreasing frequency of rainfall events, rather than a simple drying trend (Tietjen and Jeltsch 2007). “This may result in increased groundwater recharge, a possible change in statistical frequency of stream flows, and longer dry periods between flows” (Box et al. 2008, 1410). Box et al. (2008, 1410) also note that with climate change, Central Australia is likely to experience “a more El Niño-like precipitation pattern and an increase in heavy precipitation events.” Even then, the prediction that there will be a future drying trend at all in the North of the AW NRM region is highly contestable.
Figure 18. Giles and Hamilton Average Summer Rainfall with 10 year average trend lines (source: BOM 2011)
In the South, where fewer low-pressure systems are expected, the intensities of the rainfall and wind associated with those systems are projected to continue to increase. Thus, while the frequency of average extreme winds, winter storms and storm surges are projected to decrease, according to McInnes et al. (2003), the spring and autumn westerlies, southerlies and south- westerlies may increase in frequency and these winds are often the most potentially destructive. That may mean for example, that while the regularity of coastal storm surges decreases on average, the frequency of major, damaging storm surges may increase. Seasonal rainfall data for
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Nullarbor suggests that, while rainfall is highly variable, in a manner similar to the trends experienced in the North, Nullarbor may actually be experiencing a trend to more summer rainfall, while no trend is apparent in winter rainfall (Figure 19).
Figure 19. Nullarbor Average Summer and Winter Rainfall with 10 year average trend lines (source: BOM 2011)
Projected change to sea-level
Global sea-level rose on average between 1.5-2mm per year throughout the latter half of the Twentieth Century, and there is some evidence the rate of rising has increased to 3mm per year on average in the Twenty-First Century (Solomon et al. 2007). Future projections suggest that these trends will increase slightly throughout the century, although there is considerable uncertainty, such that the IPCC has until recent times predicted a global rise of somewhere between 18 and 59cm by the end of the Twenty-First Century. This prediction has been heavily criticised as a conservative estimate given recent trends, and more recent projections suggest that a median sea-level rise of 1.1m could be expected by 2100 (Kerr 2006; Solomon et al. 2007). Nevertheless, the Coast Protection Board of SA (1992) has adopted what has been seen as a Precautionary approach, by utilising guidelines for development of sea-level rises of 30cm by 2050 and 100cm by 2100 to inform planning decisions around the State. Recent experienced rise and future projections of increasing rates of ice melt suggest that current SA Government guidelines may no longer be seen as supporting strong protection for coastal systems, given the level of future risk (see Coastal Management section for a more detailed review of this issue).
3.3 Summary of climate change trends and projections
In summary, climatological research findings suggest that there has been a warming trend for the AW region throughout the latter part of the Twentieth Century and early Twenty-First Century, and studies of projected climate change suggest that this trend is likely to continue, particularly in the North (Table 5). The trend regarding rainfall volume, intensity and pattern for the region is far less clear, although projections suggest a drying trend in the future for the South, but potentially more summer rain across the AW NRM region (Table 5).
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Table 5. Summary of major projected climate change impacts for the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management Region to 2030 (sources: McInnes et al. 2003; Suppiah et al. 2006)
Projected Climate change South North
Average Annual temperatures + 0.2-1.6oC + 0.6 to 1.8oC Average Annual Number of Hot For Ceduna 3-5 (currently 3) For Ernabella 8-12 (currently 7) spells above 35oC
Average Rainfall: Annual -15% to 0% -15% to +7% Summer -15% to +15% -7% to +15% Autumn -15% to +7% -7% to +15% Winter -15% to 0% -15% to +7% Spring -20% to 0% -15% to +7%
In the short-term, the changes to climate and associated environmental systems may be difficult to detect within the region because of the extreme intra- and inter-annual variability in the local climate, especially with respect to rainfall. This variability can tend to mask subtle changes. The types of changes that might be observed include (developed from McInnes et al. 2003; Suppiah et al. 2006 and discussion above):
Warmer days and nights Hotter, longer hot spells Greater intra-annual and inter-annual rainfall variability Increased evapotranspiration Drier winters in the South and generally drying Possible increase in summer rainfall in the North, but generally little average change Less frequent, but more intense storm events Changes in the timing of flowering & breeding cycles Reduced persistence of surface waters Changing fire, runoff and pest regimes, and Higher sea-levels and more substantial coastal storm surges in the South.
The impacts on the AW NRM region of warming and drying could be substantial because many of the species and ecosystems exist close to climatic thresholds beyond which they would struggle to reproduce and establish effectively. Changes in median temperatures and evaporation rates, the timing, reliability and levels of precipitation, and the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events (see Table 5), will all have substantial impacts on environmental management, service delivery and community activities across the AW NRM region. These facts emphasise the need for timely responses to the anticipated change, particularly where specific vulnerabilities can be identified. Some example projects that the AW NRM Board may wish to pursue to improve knowledge of local climatic characteristics are described below. Following those suggested projects, the discussion examines the extent to which the different NRM sectors within the AW NRM region will be vulnerable to future climate change, starting with a chapter relating to issues of water management.
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3.4 Suggested Example Climate Projects
Project 1 : Climate science and monitoring change
This project would aim to provide more detailed scientific information on the climate of the AW NRM region and assist to detail trends in climate change across the region. Currently there is very little data available from weather monitoring stations within the region, and the data that is available is not necessarily of high quality. That situation could be rectified by establishing weather stations within communities, and by negotiating with the Bureau of Meteorology to fill the very large gap in their Australian high-quality data weather stations across semi-arid SA.
Actions
Invest in more weather stations across all communities, potentially linked to community centres. Discuss opportunities with the Bureau of Meteorology to invest in high-quality weather stations in the APY Lands and along the Yalata Coast. Collate and monitor data to understand and raise awareness of climate impacts and trends.
Outcomes
Weather stations in key areas across the AW NRM region. More comprehensive climate data set to inform management and planning.
Project 2 : Integrating climate knowledge
This project would aim to better integrate traditional Anangu climate knowledge with scientific information to facilitate discussions and planning in relation to climate change. Prober et al. (2011) outline an approach associated with the use of traditional seasonal knowledge to facilitate a joint understanding of the perception of weather and climate. An alternative approach may wish to use art and traditional representations of the landscape to facilitate discussions regarding changes that are observed or projected. It is beyond the scope of this project to articulate how such a project might work in detail, because it needs to be developed between stakeholders, but approaches that generate synergies in understandings of climate and its importance for country could guide better approaches to management.
Actions
Undertake a study that comprehensively reviews how traditional climate knowledge could be integrated with scientific climate information. Study and collate traditional knowledge, represent that knowledge in appropriate forms such as local language, pictures and/or art to facilitate discussion of local climate and climate change.
Outcomes
Detailed reviews of local Anangu understanding of local climate Resources to facilitate discussion of climate and change Bridges between traditional and scientific knowledge that could be used to plan strategic approaches to managing climate change in particular, and country in general.
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4. Flood Management, Surface Water and Groundwater Resources 4.1 Section Summary
Flood Management Surface Water Groundwater Resources Resources Vulnerability Medium-High Medium-High Medium
Climate Change Increase in ratio of larger More ephemeral Groundwater recharge Impacts floods to smaller floods surface waters, likely to decrease in Increase in flood variability, particularly in South South with larger flood events and Salt lakes likely to re-fill Uncertain but potential longer dry periods more rarely and increase of groundwater become more saline recharge in North
Adaptation Ensure essential community Increase protection of Increase rainwater Responses infrastructure (generators, rockholes from feral harvesting to houses, water supplies) is animals supplement bore water located away from flood-prone Provide more watering supplies areas points for native Monitor & manage animals current and new users, especially mining
Suggested Determine and map flood prone Determine current Install rainwater tanks Example areas based on an agreed longevity of surface as supplement to bore Projects increased design flood risk waters, and prioritise water, particularly in the Establish monitoring stations on protection for the most South primary ephemeral rivers to permanent areas. Monitor groundwater to determine flow rates and determine net water inform models recharge/ extraction rates
4.2 Climate Change Impacts Climate change will have significant impacts on the water resources of the AW NRM region, due to the direct and non-linear relationships between rainfall, water runoff and groundwater recharge. Secondary effects, such as changes in vegetation cover and rates of water resource exploitation, are likely to exacerbate the direct impacts. In general, the combination of an overall drying trend and an increase in the variability of rainfall is likely to increase the magnitude of large flood events, while at the same time decreasing the net amount of runoff available to surface waters and groundwater recharge. A significant exception may be in the North of the region, where a combination of increasing flood magnitudes and the likelihood of high rates of runoff during large rain events may increase groundwater recharge rates and overland flows, even if overall average annual rainfall declines. This also has implications for groundwater-fed surface waters and ecosystems, such as soakages (soaks) and some rockholes.
Flooding is primarily caused by significant localised rainfall events, either from individual falls or a series of rainfall events over a short period within the AW NRM region (Image 8). Rainfall must pass beyond a certain threshold within a particular time for each catchment before streamflow will occur. Additional factors influencing streamflow include rates of evapotranspiration, slope, permeability of surfaces and water storage capacity of soils, and the amount and type of vegetation and surface cover. While rainfall and evapotranspiration will be directly affected by climate change,
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such secondary effects on soil erodibility and compaction, vegetation cover and numerous other complicating factors may influence the regularity and levels of floods.
Image 8. A creek crossing after a storm on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo: D Bardsley)
The predicted decrease in average rainfall, and increase in rainfall variability as a result of climate change in the AW NRM region (McInnes et al. 2003) will have major impacts for the region's channel systems. A number of reviews of dryland river systems worldwide have noted that an increase in aridity leads to an increase in the ratio of large magnitude floods to smaller magnitude floods (Tooth 2000; Molnar 2001), which is significant as dryland channel development is shaped predominantly by large magnitude, low frequency flood events, rather than the more regular smaller events. Quantifying the magnitude of increase in flood risk, however, is very difficult, as most flood models require very fine spatial resolution compared with the relatively coarse climate models currently available (Pittock et al. 2006). For example, results from flood modelling in the Murray Darling Basin found that the likelihood of an increase in extreme 3-day rainfall events by 2070 was anywhere between 0 and 100% depending on the sub-region, even though some places were predicted to experience significant declines in annual rainfall (up to 60%) (Pittock et al. 2006).
The observations and predictions of increased flood magnitudes in regions that have experienced increasing aridity supports the predictions of increased large-scale flood risk for the North under climate change (McInnes et al. 2003), as recently evidenced by the flooding around Ernabella and other communities in the APY Lands (ABC News 2011). During the workshops undertaken on the APY Lands, the flood events of 2010-2011 were consistently reported as having major impacts on community activities:
“The floods had some impacts. There has been some big erosion, with roads being cut. Some creeks changed direction due to flash flooding and they spread out as they became
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very big and then didn’t return to their original course. There was some local flooding, some roads blocked but there was nothing too serious here with the recent rains. It is a long time since it has rained like this summer. It has been raining most of the time in recent times. Not since the 1970’s has it rained like this. This year is unusually wet not so much because of the amount of rainfall but because there have been such a large number of large falls, five or six regularly over summer” (Amata 21/3/2011).
“We had a lot of flooding here. Flooding led to major bogging – we were scared. We couldn’t get any food in because the trucks into the store were blocked by the pools of water on the roads. Food was scarce so food had to be brought in by aircraft. Even if you have a Toyota it was very hard to go hunting because of the floods. Maybe they used to just walk out and hunt in the past. Now the aeroplane had to drop off food. These rains were different because we got a lot of rain coming over a long period of time. Kanpi-Nyapari had big rains and flooding like this about 18 years ago. There was more rain and water than ever this time, water was coming down the creeks and standing in pools all over the land. It was very dry for a long time before that – it is good now (Kanpi- Nyapari 22/3/2011).
“There was lots of rain over summer but it is finished now. We had big floods that ran twice, right around the back of the town. Children were riding an old fridge down the river just over there! The floods cut off the town, came through but didn’t cause much damage - just some mosquitoes, but lots of flies. Those floods were unusual, but we always seem to get a big rain around December. During the wet they didn’t have a food truck for four weeks and the mail plane was diverted a number of times because the airstrip was underwater. The airstrip needed to be repaired twice. We need to have the community’s key assets higher than the flood water. Perhaps we could grade tracks with a high point along the middle so the roads don’t turn into pools when it rains forcing drivers wider and wider, and into the surrounding shrub. People got hungry after the rains until they brought food in by helicopter and then plane. This summer’s rain is very unusual but we have had some heavy winter rains before” (Kalka-Pipalytjara 23/3/2011).
“Many species haven’t come back this year with the rains – maybe it’s too wet, that’s my thinking. There were big rains about 20 years ago but not like this. It was not just cyclone Yasi, the rains have just kept on turning around and around and ending up here. You can feel it, it’s like Darwin. Climate is changing, yeah. When there was a lot of rain, the water settled in the low lying areas around town. The store was very expensive and there was no access by road. The shop was nearly empty during the rains, which were really big this year. Most people were up in Kampi when it was very wet, so they had left here and it wasn’t a problem with food. We were cut off due to the rains though, with cars churning up the tracks. A tree fell down in the storm but the community wasn’t too flooded. Normally there is rain around the hot time in December, which makes plants grow, but this was different, it has kept on raining” (Watarru 24/3/2011).
While overall rainfall is expected to decrease with climate change, especially in the South, the predicted increase in large flood events may actually increase annual erosion and sediment transfer rates along dryland channels (Molnar 2001), and lead to a widening of dryland channels in response to increasing flow intensity (Tooth 2000). The erosive impacts of flood events may become particularly important if there are more, longer dry periods, during which time vegetation desiccates and dies, followed by major rainfall events, which wash large amounts of soil into
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rockholes because there is nothing to filter the runoff. Therefore, such flood events as highlighted during workshops in the North may become more common as La Niña events intensify along with monsoonal activity with climate change. The impacts on settlements could be quite acute because most of the communities are positioned in broad floodplains, where water will run during high flows, and many roads become impassable during wet periods. There are numerous geomorphological changes that may result to easily erodible dryland channels and alluvial fans, which might increase discharge or change the direction of runoff water through valleys or across floodplains (Tooth 2000; Tooth 2005). Decreasing vegetation cover on the channel banks due to less reliable rainfall may exacerbate this situation, as banks become less stabilised and hence more prone to erosion (Tooth 2000). More detailed research of specific dryland channel systems in the AW NRM region is required to assess erosion and sedimentation dynamics, along with likely changes in native and exotic vegetation in response to increasing flood magnitudes and decreasing average rainfall.
A potential additional secondary impact on riparian flood risk is the influence of weed species (see also Invasive Species section) on dryland channel dynamics. Blackburn et al. (1982) found that Tamarix spp. species growing in similar semi-arid rangelands along the Brazos river, Texas, stabilised the channel banks and in-channel sandbars, causing increased sediment deposition, which lead to a narrowing of the channel and an increase in areas that were inundated during a flood (Blackburn et al. 1982). While the effect of dense, invasive vegetation (especially Buffel Grass) may dampen increased erosion rates due to larger magnitude rainfall events and floods, it also may increase the flood risk to nearby downstream areas. The interaction between these many primary and secondary factors make specific predictions about the impacts of climate change on flood management systems in the AW NRM region extremely difficult, and highlights the need for more detailed and interdisciplinary research into the dynamics of the specific systems, especially those related to communities and vital ecological assets.
Overall, climate change poses real challenges for flood management in the AW region, both from a NRM perspective, and for maintaining critical community infrastructure such as power lines, roads, telecommunications equipment, and access to food. A summary of the vulnerability of the AW NRM region to flooding due to climate change is shown in Table 6.
Table 6. Vulnerability to flooding due to climate change in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region.
Exposure Sensitivity Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Medium-High High Medium- Medium Medium-High High Communities Non-linear Protection of vital positioned in relationships community assets floodplains between rainfall and roads possible Flood damage and flooding by relocation away likely to relatively potential from high flood risk rare and less Systems shaped areas extensive on a predominantly by Little ability to landscape scale high magnitude manage changes in compared with floods in arid riparian habitat due climate change environments. to scale of problem impacts on other Acute impacts in Native vegetation systems. and adjacent to will face Increased aridity communities competition from increases ratio of invasive species in high flood new flood regimes, magnitudes to low leading to changes flood magnitudes in channel structure and formation
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Surface water resources within the AW NRM region consist primarily of salt lakes, rockholes and rockpools (both run-off and groundwater-fed), claypans, waterholes and soakages, with varying degrees of impermanence (see Table 7)(AW NRM Board 2010). The high evaporation and low precipitation rates throughout the region inhibit the formation of runoff-fed permanent fresh water surface storages, including permanent rivers, so any water that remains available to people and animals for long periods, can be highly valuable (Tooth 2000; Williams 2002). Traditionally, any semi-permanent water sources in the region were highly valued and managed by traditional owners throughout the AW NRM region, and such activities remain vital for many Anangu (Image 9). The value of surface water resources was highlighted in the APY workshops:
“There is permanent surface water in the Mann ranges behind the town and those rockholes need to be managed. We have 3 rangers that are employed to manage the Indigenous Protected Area through APY Land Management. Until now there has only been money for rangers and a Toyota, but now there is money to help with on-ground works for burning, rockhole cleaning, protecting sacred sites etc. The rangers do things like clean out rockholes, control pest plants and animals and patch burn. Last week the rangers worked to clean up a rockhole just to the south here, where a camel had fallen in and died” (Kalka- Pipalyatjara 23/3/2011).
“We clean dirt out of rockholes so they can hold water when it rains. Mostly we wait until they are dry and then dig them out. Camels muck up the rockholes, some get stuck. There are plenty of rockholes that the old people knew of and used to manage, which aren’t managed now. We just manage the rockholes near the roads” (Watarru 24/3/2011).
Image 9. Rockhole in the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands
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Table 7. Summary of primary surface water resources in Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
English Pitjantjatjara/ Description (from Box et al. Water Source (from Box Yakunytjatjara 2008) et al. 2008) (Bromhead 2011) Salt lake pantu Shallow saline lake, with a flat bed Predominantly groundwater- devoid of vegetation, and usually dry. dependant, with inundation controlled by runoff and stored surface water.
Rockhole tjukula A natural hole in rock that stores water. Run-off or groundwater fed Includes pools in riverbeds and depending on location. gnamma holes. Rockpool warku A shallow rockhole (Bromhead 2011) Runoff fed
Claypan tjintjira Shallow lake with low salinity and clay- Runoff fed dominated substrates. Usually temporarily inundated from stored surface water
Waterhole uru General term for areas in a river Runoff or groundwater fed channel where a pool regularly forms, either temporarily or permanently
Soakage tjukitji A location where shallow groundwater Groundwater fed can be accessed by digging.
Runoff water, the primary source of many surface waters in the AW NRM region, has a non-linear relationship with the amount of rainfall in any given period. Recent studies modelling runoff reductions due to climate change-induced reductions in rainfall in other semi-arid areas around the world found that each single unit reduction in rainfall leads to an expected 1.2 to 5 fold reduction in streamflow (Table 8), which is in agreement with other reviews in the literature (Jones et al. 2006; Preston and Jones 2008). Therefore, given the non-linear relationship between rainfall and runoff, the predicted decreases in rainfall in the South of the AW NRM region (0-15% annual reduction) could potentially lead to anywhere between 0-65% reduction in runoff. However, this figure is very tentative due to the large uncertainties in both climate predictions and landscape response.
Table 8. Selected projected changes to ground water recharge and streamflow in semiarid areas due to climate change
Modelled Climate Predicted Impacts on Hydrology Change (by 2100) (multiplier in brackets) Study Area Temp. Rainfall GWR Streamflow/ Run- Source Increase Decrease Reduction off Reduction Arizona - San 2.1- 5-10% 17-30% (3- 50% (5x) Serrat- Pedro Basin 3.3°C 3.4x) Capdevila et al. 2007 Brazil - Ipanema 2.5- 22-25% 71-82% (3.2- 68-76% (3-3.1x) Montenegro Catchment 3.5°C 3.3x) & Ragab 2010 Jordan - Zarqa 3.5°C 10-20% 38.8-57.5% 15.5-23.6% (1.2- Abdulla et al. River Watershed (2.9-3.9x) 1.6x) 2009
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Based on the general drying trend, salt lakes, rockholes and rockpools, claypans, and waterholes are predicted to receive significantly less inflows, thereby either reducing the time that surface water remains accessible or reducing the regularity that some surface waters features will fill . Increased temperatures will further exacerbate this phenomenon because evapotranspiration is expected to increase across the AW NRM region. The impacts on groundwater-fed sources, such as soakages, are less clear, and will be discussed in the section on groundwater.
It is anticipated that the impact of climate change on temporary salt lakes (such as the extensive Serpentine salt lakes to the north of the Great Victoria Desert) will cause them to fill less regularly but more intensely, due to the increasing variability in rainfall (Timms 2005). The drying out of salt lakes and clay pans will take place more rapidly due to elevated temperatures, resulting in much more ephemeral and variable filling regimes. Current permanent salt lakes and clay pans could become smaller and more saline, with decreases in biodiversity as salinity levels increase (Williams 2002). As Roshier et al. (2001) discuss, the frequency of salt lake inundation is critical to many species of birds and other animals. There is a danger that as the time between major wetland-filling flood events increases, sudden reductions in species diversity and population size might result if the cycle of wetland filling exceeds important ecological thresholds, such as the reproductive lifespan of individuals (Roshier et al. 2001). In general, the diversity of surface-water dependent species is likely to decrease with decreasing permanence of surface water, because run-on areas, semi- permanent or permanent water bodies serve as refuges for many species during dry periods, when more ephemeral surface waters have dried out (see also Biodiversity Conservation section) (Box et al. 2008).
In the North, where the rainfall projections are more unclear (-15 to +7% change), there is a wider potential range of runoff predictions from 65% or more reduction to a 35% or more increase in runoff. Taking into account the extensive mountain ranges of the North, which have largely impervious surfaces, the impact of rainfall changes on runoff could potentially be slightly less than for equivalent reductions in rainfall over more permeable soils (Table 9 & Image 10). For that reason, climate change impacts on localised surface water features, such as rockholes and rockpools, from reduced rainfall could be less than elsewhere. Whether rainfall increases or decreases overall in the North, the increasing variability of rainfall, and increasing temperatures and associated evapotranspiration, are likely to result in longer periods where localised surface water resources are unavailable. A combination of less regular water inflows and rapid drying after rain events will reduce the availability of surface water as both an exploitable resource and a habitat.
The irregular replenishment and rapid depletion of surface water resources could exacerbate already significant management difficulties regarding rockpools and springs, including important impacts by exotic, invasive species (see also Invasive Species section). As reported in the workshops, large feral mammals, such as camels and donkeys, and stock (in the North) already severely impact upon some rockholes by drinking large amounts of water and fouling the water (Robinson et al. 2003). Such impacts of large, exotic herbivores is expected to increase under climate change, as heat-induced stress causes animals to drink more water and spend more time in around waterholes disturbing local ecological processes, further exacerbating direct impacts from reduced inflows and increasing evapotranspiration. Overall, a much more detailed assessment of surface waters in the region is required to understand how climate change will affect specific resources, including culturally significant sites.
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Table 9. Vulnerability of surface water resources in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region to climate change
Exposure Sensitivity Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Medium Medium-High Medium Limited Medium- High Surface waters Non-linear No large-scale directly related to relationships alternative to precipitation between rainfall supplement runoff volumes and and runoff, with inflows frequency potential high Rainwater harvesting Permanency of multiplier effects can provide drinking surface waters Frequency of points to migratory directly affected rainfall important in species in strategic by temperature maintaining habitat locations increases for wildlife, leading Important wildlife Demand to possible dependent on semi- increased by thresholds being regular filling of warming and reached pools, clay pans and drying trends While vital for salt lakes may Uncertain change some ecosystems, disappear. Aquatic projected for large people are more biodiversity will areas that are dependent on decrease as salinity already semi-arid groundwater than and rainfall variability and rainfall may surface water. increases. increase in the North
Image 10. Rocky outcrop on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands, indicating the relationship between impervious surfaces and vegetation (Photo: D Bardsley)
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Groundwater resources are vitally important in the AW NRM region as most Anangu communities are directly dependent upon borewater (GHD 2010). Groundwater is also vital for watering stock and providing soaks and springs for biodiversity and cultural values. During the APY workshops, people noted that in most cases, until now, these water resources have been resilient in the face of a long dry period.
“The groundwater situation is very complex. You can sink 2 bore holes close to each other and get very different results because the aquifers are not uniform. There has been some drilling by mining companies around here” (Amata 21/3/2011).
“There are no problems with water supply because there are 3 bores. Some mining companies came and drilled without engaging with elders, which is a problem because they might be drilling in important places” (Kanpi-Nyapari 22/3/2011).
“There is good water here from bores, better than in other parts of the country” (Kalka- Pipalyatjara 23/3/2011).
Groundwater responses to climate change within the AW NRM region are highly uncertain, due to the complex interrelated factors affecting groundwater recharge and the quality and quantity of different aquifers varies considerably. Studies modelling groundwater recharge reductions due to climate change-induced reductions in rainfall in dryland areas found that each unit reduction in rainfall leads to an expected 2.9-3.9 unit reduction in recharge (See Table 8). However, factors influencing recharge rates to groundwater are even more complex than for surface water. Changes in overall quantity, intensity, frequency and seasonal distribution of rainfall, vegetation cover, temperature and other climatic factors all directly and indirectly influence groundwater recharge (Cartwright and Simmonds 2008). While an overall decrease in rainfall will decrease the amount of runoff available to recharge groundwater sources (see Surface Water Resources section), decreases in vegetation cover as a result of climate change and/or grazing may actually increase recharge rates due to reduced transpiration (Box et al. 2008; Cartwright and Simmonds 2008). In addition, the predicted increase in storm intensity over the region may further increase recharge rates, as most groundwater recharge occurs when soils are saturated during large, infrequent rainfall events (Cartwright and Simmonds 2008). This conclusion is supported by a recent study on water resources in the AW NRM region, which concluded that most groundwater recharge occurs via ‘river leakage’, when rainfall runoff concentrates in stream beds and seeps into underlying aquifers (GHD 2010).
It is not known to what extent the various mechanisms of increased recharge can compensate for net reductions in rainfall and subsequent reductions in runoff and percolation through to groundwater systems. While the literature reviewed suggests that overall reductions in rainfall reduce groundwater recharge rates in dryland areas substantially, the specific amount of decline will vary considerably (Sandstrom 1995; Serrat-Capdevila et al. 2007; Abdulla et al. 2009; Montenegro and Ragab 2010). Once again, more detailed groundwater/runoff modelling of the AW NRM region is needed, to give a clearer idea of the magnitude of impacts, particularly in differentiating the impacts to the North and South sub-regions.
In the South, the overall drying trend implies that groundwater-fed surface waters, such as soakages, and some salt lakes, waterholes and rockholes, will experience significant drying as groundwater tables drop due to reduced recharge rates. However, in the North of the AW NRM region, particularly around rocky and mountainous areas with high runoff coefficients, localised groundwater resources such as perched aquifers or palaeo-channels (such as the Lindsay Channel
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running through the Musgrave Ranges) may experience increased recharge rates. Increased recharge rates may occur either as a result of overall increases in rainfall or increases in localised storm intensities, leading to increases in both quantity and quality (due to the dilution of salts) of localised groundwater resources. This in turn may lead to an increase in the distribution and extent of soakages and other groundwater-dependent surface waters, as well as groundwater dependent ecosystems (Image 11). Unlike the predicted reduction in runoff-dependent surface waters, groundwater resources in the North may act as a buffer against increasing variability in rainfall frequency, especially because they are significantly less impacted by increased evaporation rates due to rising temperatures compared with surface waters.
Image 11. Large tree species such as this dead River Red Gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) rely on groundwater to survive long dry periods (Photo: D Bardsley)
There are potentially important secondary impacts on groundwater resources within the AW NRM region, due to the heavy reliance on groundwater for household use and stock watering points. While some reports indicate that water security is relatively high for the AW NRM region (e.g. (Preston and Jones 2008), other sources have indicated that groundwater resources are being extracted at unsustainable rates, particularly in the North around the APY ranges (AW NRM Board 2010). The challenge of fully understanding the water systems to enable predictions of how climate change will influence natural flows will become more urgent in the future because demand for groundwater is likely to increase significantly, partly because community and grazing activities are likely to expand, but also because of uncertain new demands associated with mining.
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“There is a big nickel/copper mine being developed just over the border in Western Australia, with an estimated 46 year lifespan. The mining company is talking about putting in a bitumen airstrip and maybe a bitumen road through to Marla and the train line, so they can ship the ore to Darwin. The mine will change the community as more people come in. The mining company is going to sink bores but a long way away. They are testing for water at the moment. We need to work across borders, across traditional borders on the APY Lands, and other country, especially to the west” (Kalka-Pipalyatjara 23/3/2011).
Climate change will increase the pressure on groundwater resources as temperatures increase and rainfall becomes more variable, leading to increasing extraction rates (Elmore et al. 2008). As Cartwright and Simmonds (2008) note, the secondary impacts that communities will have on groundwater resources are likely to remain much more significant than the direct climate change impacts upon runoff and groundwater recharge in the timeframe of this review to 2030.
Table 10. Vulnerability of groundwater resources in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region to climate change
Exposure Sensitivity Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Medium-High Medium Medium Medium Medium Complex Non-linear Rainwater harvesting an interactions relationships option to reduce between runoff and between rainfall reliance on groundwater recharge, however and recharge, with most modelling potential high Majority of groundwater shows significant multiplier effects systems likely to be impacts reduced, leading to Secondary impacts impacts on North may such as increased groundwater-dependent potentially increase groundwater surface water systems groundwater extraction and use recharge rates due for mining activities Potential to reduce to increase in leakage of groundwater storm intensity North has higher exploitation systems runoff coefficients Increases in water which may act as demand with buffer to reduced warming, drying rainfall.
4.3 Adaptation response
While the overall vulnerability of water resources to in the AW NRM to climate change is medium to high (Tables 6, 9 & 10), more detailed research is required to analyse the vulnerability of specific hydrological systems, due to the diversity of such systems and the variable nature of predicted climate change between the North and the South. The direct and non-linear relationships between water resources and rainfall mean that there are likely to be significant changes in the functioning of floods, surface and ground waters. Thus NRM in the region must prepare for larger and more destructive floods, with consequent changes in rangeland river channel dynamics and riparian vegetation.
Communities that are adjacent to riverbeds may need to ensure that key assets such as generators, stores, airstrips, schools and community centres are positioned to minimise flood impacts if major events become more regular with climate change.
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There are also likely to be adaptation responses required to manage changing surface and groundwater resources, as could be: 1) a reduction in the extent and duration of ephemeral and semi-permanent surface waters and consequent reductions in biodiversity; 2) increased pressure on water resources from both exotic animals, stock, and for human uses as temperatures increase; and 3) reductions in groundwater recharge in the South (but with the possibility of localised increases in the North), with consequent changes in groundwater-fed surface waters such as soaks (Table 11). Significant, new uses of groundwater resources, such as the mining industry, will have to be carefully monitored, assessed and managed, especially as the resource may decline with climate change.
Table 11. Summary of potential impacts of climate change on water resources in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Region Projected Rainfall Groundwater Flooding Surface Waters trend resources
North -15% to +7% Groundwater More extreme More variable inflows and change in annual recharge rates and damaging quicker drying rates will lead to rainfall may increase, flooding more ephemeral surface waters, More variable particularly in events, with with some drying up altogether. rainfall, with larger localised increased Increasing salinity of existing salt storm events, and areas that erosion. lakes. longer dry periods receive runoff Higher run-off coefficients of rock from rock. outcrops may buffer impacts compared with South. Groundwater-dependent soakages may increase South 0-15% reduction Groundwater More extreme More variable inflows and in annual rainfall recharge rates and damaging quicker drying rates will lead to More variable likely to flooding more ephemeral surface waters,
rainfall, with larger decrease events, with with some drying up altogether. storm events, and increased Increasing salinity of existing salt longer dry periods erosion. lakes.
Within these overall declining trends in water resources, however, there are a number of adaptation options that might serve to provide some buffers to water resources in the region. As Pearce et al. (2005) note, there is a large potential for rainwater harvesting to supplement reliance on groundwater in semi-arid communities (Image 12). In addition, a greater use of rainwater would diversify supply of a critical resource for domestic use, thereby reducing the risk of relying on one system which may become less reliable. The use of rainwater also reduces scale deposits due to the high levels of calcium and magnesium in groundwater supplies in the region, which can damage water infrastructure and lead to the need for frequent maintenance (Downing 2000).
The recent flooding in the APY lands (ABC News 2011) highlights the need for protecting key community assets from flood events. Backup water provision systems may be even more important if summer floods become a more regular event in the North, particularly when access to groundwater relies on diesel-powered pumps which may be difficult to keep running if access to fuel is cut off. To maintain security of rainwater supply in increasingly variable climatic conditions, rainwater tanks would need to be much larger to capture and store heavy and unpredictable rainfall events (enHealth 2004), and may need to be located strategically, such on high sites away from flood-prone areas, to provide gravity-fed supply in case electricity or diesel-powered pumping is not available.
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Image 12. Rainwater-fed water-point for native animals on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo: D Bardsley)
The current practice of protecting rockholes from feral animals and maintaining rockhole water quality is important for both environmental and cultural values (Robinson et al. 2003), and will remain an important adaptation strategy under climate change to maximise both the quantity and quality of these surface waters. Box et al. (2008) highlight that the conservation of permanent surface waters should have priority over more ephemeral sources, as permanent surface waters play an important role in maintaining biodiversity, by providing crucial habitat and refuge areas during dry periods. The significance of reliable surface water resources will only increase in a drying and more variable climate, and so traditional management approaches could be cooperatively supported, learned from and developed to ensure that vital assets remain available for cultural and ecological reasons.
4.4 Suggested Example Water Projects
Project 1 : Flood Mapping
This project would examine projected flood intensities in the AW NRM region as a result of climate change. Areas which would be affected based on projections would be mapped, particularly in the North (subregions 7, 8 & 9 in Figure 2), to identify specific risks to communities such as Pipalyatjara, Ernabella and Fregon that are situated adjacent to river beds. Key assets could, over time, be moved strategically away from identified high flood-risk areas based on such improved information.
Actions
Develop a fine-scale model of flood dynamics for catchments in the North that incorporates a range of climate scenarios, allowing predictions to be made about future flood return frequencies and intensities. Map results of modelling to determine areas of projected high flood intensity in relation to Anangu communities and key assets.
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Outcomes
Maps of range of predicted flood intensities showing overlap with key assets and infrastructure. Facilitation of a planned retreat policy, which gradually shifts vulnerable assets into less flood-prone areas, reducing costly replacements of infrastructure due to flood damage.
Project 2 : Monitoring of Surface and Groundwater Resources
Data on water resources in the AW NRM region are scarce, yet are essential for monitoring trends in water quality and quantity in response to climate change. Priority should be given to measuring flows of ephemeral streams and establishing groundwater level monitoring stations away from pumping centres to ensure that they are unaffected by short-term draw-downs in groundwater. The data from these types of monitoring activities could then be used to improve water balance modelling of the region, and help predict likely outcomes as climate change progresses.
Actions
Establish flow measuring stations on primary ephemeral streams, particularly in the North where runoff is greater. Establish groundwater level monitoring stations throughout the AW NRM region (located away from extraction points). Establish flow meters on primary bore pumps which service community needs to monitor groundwater extraction rates. Establish a central data collection, monitoring and assessment point which can regularly and consistently record and analyse data from monitoring stations.
Outcomes
Ongoing and consistent data on stream-flow and groundwater levels, which can inform water balance models and more accurately predict impacts of future climate change on water resources, as well as monitoring fluctuations in groundwater levels in relation to utilisation by communities and mining.
Project 3 : Focus Management on Long-lived Surface waters
This project could work closely with Traditional Owners to identify and map the permanence of surface waters within the AW NRM region, in order to focus management on the areas of greatest longevity, particularly in the South (subregions 2-5 in Figure 2) where the drying trend is predicted to be greater. Management activities at these identified sites could include protection of waters from feral animals, and supplementing natural watering points with captured rainwater (either from built roofs or runoff) for native animals.
Actions
Identify and categorise various surface waters in the AW NRM region, according to key attributes such as salinity, permanency, catchment area, importance for animal habitat and source (either groundwater or runoff-fed) .
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Prioritise management activities around the more valuable surface water bodies, which could include fencing off areas from feral animals such as camels and donkeys, and providing supplementary sources of water for native animals during dryer periods.
Outcomes
Maps of surface water permanency, highlighting priority protection areas Establishment of fences to exclude feral animals, and provision of supplementary water sources located around high priority surface waters. Improved resilience of managed surface waters, to allow those assets to act as a buffer against climate variability and change.
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5. Biodiversity Conservation
5.1 Section Summary
Biodiversity Conservation (North) Biodiversity Conservation (South)
Vulnerability Medium Medium-High
Climate Changes in timing of key breeding & Changes in timing of key breeding & Change flowering cycles due to changes in rainfall flowering cycles Impacts Key refuge areas in the Central Ranges Habitat reduction due to altered water and may be altered fire regimes Habitat reduction due to altered water and Stronger competition from exotic plant & fire regimes mammal species Stronger competition from exotic plant & Large changes in ecosystem composition if mammal species thresholds of aridity are passed
Adaptation Fire management to reduce risk of large, Facilitate migration of species along bio- Responses hot wildfires climatic gradients through to refuge spaces Facilitate migration of species along bio- such as run-on & elevated places with climatic gradients through to refuge linkages and buffers spaces such as run-on & elevated places Extend formal reserves and ensure potential with linkages and buffers refuges are included Extend formal reserves and ensure Reduce external non-climatic pressures potential refuges are included Identify and protect rare run-on and Reduce external non-climatic pressures groundwater dependent ecosystems such as grazing & hunting Suggested Regular comprehensive biological surveys Regular comprehensive biological surveys Example Identify conservation priority reserve areas Identify conservation priority reserve areas Projects and refuges and refuges Develop better understanding of how Develop better understanding of how climate climate influences biodiversity influences biodiversity Use indicator systems & species to Use indicator systems & species to monitor monitor change change Work on specific, local participatory Work on specific, local participatory management projects management projects
5.2 Climate Change Impacts
Biodiversity in semi-arid environments is strongly influenced by non-equilibrium processes triggered by rare, variable and episodic biotic and abiotic events, particularly large rainfall events (Pickup 1996; Morton et al. 2011). When a significant downpour or series of rainfall events occur, ecosystems in semi-arid areas regenerate in many ways that lead to major changes in vegetation biodiversity composition (Holmgren et al. 2001), including changes to vegetation such as:
The germination of many seeds, including those that could have been dormant for some time The establishment and growth of annuals and biennials The establishment and growth of perennial trees and shrubs, and, Flowering, seeding and fruiting.
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The changes to vegetation condition pass through thresholds after which the rangelands provide a relative abundance of productivity for animals, which in turn lead to large increases in populations of grazers, rodents, predator and scavenger species (Briske et al. 2006). Morton et al. (2011, 322) note that “herbivorous animals in areas with infertile soils must use poorly digestible or very intermittent plant production; they therefore tend towards either opportunistic presence cued to the ephemeral availability of an appropriate high-quality resource, or to more persistent and specialised use of perennial plants.” Rodents for example, can rapidly increase their populations with abundant feed, leading to high regeneration rates and relatively low mortality in the favourable conditions. Predator and scavenger species similarly increase populations, but at different rates, to increased prey/food abundance. The point is that rainfall matters in a fundamental way to the semi-arid systems (Image 13).
Image 13. Flowering spinifex at Watarru after significant summer rains (Photo: D Bardsley)
The major rainfall events trigger fundamental change, “pulses” or “phase shifts”, in the rangelands in a manner that can be described as non-linear, because basic thresholds of moisture requirements are exceeded. For example, large, rapid change will result from an extended period of moisture availability to systems that might not have changed very much for a decade (Hughes 2011). For that reason the timing of these events has a huge impact on the condition and management of rangeland ecosystems. Management activities during long-dry periods when the condition of the vegetation and animals populations are in steady decline will have very different outcomes to management activities subsequent to a major rainfall event when the rangelands are in a highly productive phase.
The timing of rainfall is fundamental to rangeland management, which means that climate change projections of longer dry periods and shorter, but more intense wet periods of rainfall have the potential to alter the natural cycles significantly.
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As introduced earlier, the changes to climate in the AW NRM region will differ from North to South, which suggests a major climatic sub-division of the region. For that reason, the impacts of future climate change on the biodiversity vulnerability for the AW NRM region is divided into the North and South, which includes a number of important IBRA (Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia) regions (Figure 20). The review for the North focuses on the Central Ranges (areas 7, 8 & 9 in Figure 2), and does not examine in any detail the Finke or Stony Plains IBRA regions, which are comparatively small areas of that sub-region. Similarly, the Great Victoria Desert is only briefly discussed due to its relative remoteness. The South incorporates the Nullarbor IBRA region (area 3 in Figure 2) and the Yellabina sub-region (area 5 in Figure 2), which sits largely in the South-west corner of the Great Victoria Desert IBRA region. The North and South have particular importance because, as already mentioned, they are relatively less dry; strongly influenced by anthropogenic forces; and, are also indicated as parts of important potential NatureLinks, across the Central Ranges in the North and between western and eastern Australian biodiversity as East-Meets-West to the South.
Figure 20. Map of Australian Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia indicating Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region (Australian Government 2011)
Rainfall pulses are particularly important for the regeneration of woody species in arid lands (Holmgren et al. 2006; Morton et al. 2011). Rangelands may be at quite different stages in vegetation regime depending on the timing from a major rainfall event or events. Extreme events such as floods or droughts have significantly differential impacts on rangeland species composition and abundance. For example, after major flooding, vegetation-consuming rodents in semi-arid environments experienced “large, rapid population- and community-level changes that were superimposed on a background of more gradual trends driven by climate and vegetation change” (Thibault and Brown 2008, 3410). “Catastrophic regime shifts” (Holmgren et al. 2006, 89) may occur if variability within semi-arid areas increases with climate change. These cycles need to be
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recognised and managed, for example, to try to maximise the success of regeneration activities during relatively wet La Niña periods, and to ensure that grazing of native, invasive exotic and livestock animals do not overgraze during the dry El Niño years to the point where pulses of regeneration with future rains would be impossible.
Biodiversity in the AW NRM region is already in decline across large areas, predominantly because of historical changes to land management and the associated introduction of invasive, exotic animals. While predictions of species survival or decline largely only relate to current and historical land management, climate change will create additional pressures for species at risk, as well as for others not currently recognised as threatened. “Species that may be more at risk from global climate change include those with limited ranges, narrow habitat requirements, and poor dispersal abilities” (Box et al. 2008, 1410). Changes in temperature, precipitation and evaporation are likely to have impacts on ecosystems, the composition of communities, population mixes within species and the timing of activities by organisms. For example, flowering times for many plants will not remain stable in the face of substantial changes in the timing and intensity in their climatic triggers (Image 14).
Image 14. Flowering Flame Grevillea (Grevillea eriostachya) on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo: D Bardsley)
Not dealt with at length in this report is the role of steadily increasing global carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. There will be variable impacts of increasing concentrations of
CO2 on vegetation germination, establishment, growth and regeneration. CO2 fertilisation will affect species with C3, C4 and CAM photosynthetic pathways to different extents, dependent upon numerous physiological constraints (Ward et al. 1999; Dukes 2000). As most plants will be able to fix more carbon per unit water, energy or nutrient, associated physiological changes can be expected, including for example, higher carbon to nitrogen ratios in plants and seeds. Some
species, including numerous invasive species may benefit from increasing concentrations of CO2, which will alter the ecological balances.
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The North: The Central Ranges of the APY lands
In the North, the major summer rainfall events may arrive more regularly if, as suggested, the northern monsoon intensifies directing major cloud bands across Central Australia more often. Simultaneously however, an intensification of the ENSO cycle may lead to longer-drier periods (associated with the El Niño phase) and more intense, but less frequent wet periods (associated with the La Niña phase). As discussed in Section 3, the North has been experiencing a slight increase in total rainfall historically and projections of future climate change are uncertain. Nevertheless, a decrease in average rainfall is projected to be more likely with the increasing intensification of the ENSO cycle that would lead to longer, drier El Niño periods and wetter intervening La Niña periods. Appreciating the effects of the increasing intensity of the ENSO cycle could be fundamental to managing climate change impacts on biodiversity in the North, especially to ensure that when there are periods of significant rainfall, feral animals do not increase populations at the expense of important native species (see Invasive Species section).
The Central Ranges are a series of ranges running from west to east across the North of the AW NRM region, including the Tomkinson, Mann, Musgrave, Everard and Indulkana ranges (Figure 1). The ranges include the highest altitudes in SA, with Mt Woodroffe at 1435 metres above sea level and there are also a number of isolated mountains “inselbergs” throughout the area (Griffin and McCaskill 1986). These Central Ranges contain considerable biodiversity that is unique to SA (Image 15).
Image 15. The rocky outcrop or “inselberg” at Watarru (Photo: D Bardsley)
The most recent biological survey of the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Lands was undertaken by Robinson et al. (2003), who undertook a comprehensive biological survey of the region between 1991 and 2001 with significant local Anangu involvement. The report provides a rare and valuable detailed insight into the ecosystems and species of the area, and this section of the review draws strongly
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from this excellent survey work. The research by Robinson et al. (2003) is also an excellent example of the point that baseline scientific information and monitoring of ecological condition will be a vital tool in understanding how climate change will alter natural resource systems, but will be most effective when integrated with holistic Anangu knowledge and activities. Without the information in a form that can be accessed and reviewed, critically examined and modelled against future projections of climate, providing guidance of an uncertain future will be very difficult. Therefore, knowledge and data will need to be presented in forms that are available for development and critique - more is made of this point in the concluding chapter.
Image 16. Vegetation on an isolated rocky outcrop at Watarru (Photo: D Bardsley)
Ecosystems across the North are spatially and ecologically complex. Robinson et al. (2003, 1) state that “in general terms, the ranges support Triodia (spinifex) communities, while drainage lines support River Red Gum woodlands and Melaleuca shrublands.” However, there is considerable diversity of environmental associations and species across the sub-region associated with topography, geology, drainage patterns and other drivers (Image 16). There is very little permanent water, with rivers and creeks mostly short and draining into alluvial areas and dunefields. The semi- permanent water that does exist in the AW NRM region is associated with springs and rockpools in the ranges. During discussions with communities in the APY Lands it was recognised that the recent long, dry period had an effect on local biodiversity.
“There are more extreme conditions now. Before the rains came the camels were coming into town, going mad. Old people say that this drought was very bad. The leaves have nothing in them – it was like a fire went through and dried it all up. It was a seven year drought – you see that where the water used to be it was all dry, just dry salt pans. There was no permanent water during the long dry – the springs dried up and then lots of erosion” (Amata 21/3/2011).
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Parts of the North have been defined as aboriginal homelands from the early 1920s, which has provided some level of protection from European primary industries, but the policies have had variable value for conservation (Robinson et al. 2003, 43). The level of disturbance to natural processes varies considerably from intensive impacts around the major Anangu towns and homeland settlements and watering areas for stock and invasive animals, to more remote areas, where the ecosystems remain relatively unaffected by human activities. There has been historical extensive pastoralism across much of the North, which “continues to play an important role in the many commercial ventures undertaken by Anangu Pitjantjatjara communities today” (Robinson et al. 2003, 46-47).
Table 12. Vulnerability of biodiversity conservation in the North of the indicating Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region to climate change
Exposure Sensitivity Impact Adaptive capacity Vulner- ability
Medium Medium-High Medium Medium Medium
Change to Most local biodiversity Rangeland species & climate unlikely highly adapted to ecosystems are adaptive to to register variable, hot, dry variable climatic conditions above normal conditions across time & space variability to Diverse flexible Problem = Very fast change 2030 ecosystems require predicted Longer, drier rainfall triggers for Particular systems associated periods and ecological & with dunes, pools, claypans, wetter, more physiological processes alluvial fans, soaks may have intense rainfall Trends in climate will little inherent adaptive events will alter have significant impacts capacity, and specific key ecological on bioclimatic niches of management programs triggers. species focussed on these vulnerable There are few refuges areas may be required. for species to migrate Extent of invaded systems to, especially away from makes management difficult. the Central Ranges
The varied topography of the Central Ranges provides opportunities for bioclimatic and hydrological refuges for species within a relatively small area (Table 12). Refugia are areas in which species “persist by range reduction to micro-habitats that retain the necessary niche and habitat requirements” (Mackey et al. 2008, 13). There are several different habitat types associated with different topography, soils, and drainage, and therefore, although species ranges may shrink and as a consequence their vulnerability will increase, habitat spaces in the landscape are likely to remain for most resident species (Image 17). The Central Ranges may be particularly important during times of climate change as areas of refuge for species that would otherwise be unable to rapidly adjust to changing conditions.
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Image 17. Vegetation associated with rock outcrops on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo: D Bardsley)
Morton et al. (2011) emphasise the importance of water run-on areas to generate and maintain biodiversity in Australian rangelands. For example, some bird species migrate in and out of the Central Ranges depending on feed conditions, however these migration patterns may be disrupted if, for example, less surface water is available or rains do not provide food sources. “Some bird and mammal populations that are dependent upon, and therefore limited by, the availability of surface water supplies (e.g. kangaroos and emus; parrots and pigeons) may become even more limited in their abundance and distribution, due to an increasing diminution in water available in rockholes” (Robinson et al. 2003, 347). Most species respond positively to the rainfall (Image 18), with some indications that important bushfoods such as bush tomatoes or honey ants are available in relative abundance in association with rainfall, but if there is too much rain then the availability of bushfood diminishes. The response of the country to the recent rains was reflected on in relation to access to bushfood at the APY workshops:
“There was very little bushfood before but now there is a lot with the rain. We preserve some bushfood like quandong during good times, so that we can use it later. We are looking everywhere for bushfood but we don’t notice everything. We try and go out when it is wet and there is bushfood, but we can’t access it because the roads are so bad. We have to go off- road and we get flat tyres. We had a long dry but it is better now, all the rockholes have filled up. Animals come back and we see their tracks – emu, turkey, goanna, Euro up in the hills. The Tjakura lizard goes deep into the ground when there is a lot of water, and they come out when the sun comes out. They dig burrows. They leave the old burrows and build new ones so that there is an entry and an exit. They are all underground because of the rains. Normally lizards hide over winter, but they come out in September, with the quandong fruit. But when the storms came they went underground again with the rain” (Watarru 24/3/2011).
More challenging may be the secondary impacts on vegetation that provides vital food, nesting sites, cover and other values, because longer, hotter, drier, dry spells could significantly reduce the capacity of local vegetation to provide habitat for native fauna (Table 12). As stated previously rainfall timing and volume are major factors in the species density and productivity.
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Image 18. Stalked Puffball fungus (Podaxis pistillaris) after significant summer rains on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo: D Bardsley)
Already the condition of much vegetation has been altered by grazing of cattle and invasive exotic species. As Robinson et al. (2003, 346) state “Unfortunately, the life cycles of many plants have become limited even further in recent decades through: the grazing and browsing effects of introduced herbivores – in particular, by the almost-ubiquitous European Rabbit, but also to lesser, and more localised, degrees by feral camels, horses, donkeys and cattle; and the less selective, and often very extensive, impacts of larger and more frequent wildfires than used to be the pattern prior to the 1930s-1940s.” As a result, mammalian biodiversity has declined significantly in range and abundance in the APY Lands over the last century (Mackey et al. 2008). Robinson et al. (2003, 199) note that there are “at least 27 extant native mammal species currently occurring on the AP Lands including: one monotreme seven species of carnivorous marsupial the marsupial- mole three species of macropod four species of native rodent 10 species of insectivorous bat, and the Dingo.” and continue on (Robinson et al. 2003, 199):
“of the 44 native species listed for the AP Lands, at least 18 must now be presumed extinct. Included in this category have not been recorded in the region for at least 50 years despite systematic and relatively intensive searches. These include: three species of carnivorous marsupial four species of macropod all four bandicoot and bilby species,
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the Numbat the Common Brushtail Possum four species of native rodent and one species of insectivorous bat.”
Many of the more abundant native mammals such as the marsupial rodents are also likely to move through significant population boom and bust cycles in association with rainfall (Holmgren et al. 2001). Many other marsupials and especially the marsupial carnivores are rarer, and, as well as having populations linked to the amount of food available in association with rainfall patterns, have significantly restricted habitat ranges (Holmgren et al. 2006). Both a limited range and strong dependence on rainfall suggests a significant level of vulnerability in a changing and more variable climate. Coupled with these issues are significant hunting pressures on larger marsupials and strong competition or predation by invasive exotic species. Clearly, as will be discussed at greater length in the invasive species section, mammalian invasive species are a major threat to sustainable NRM already, and may become more so as systems are disrupted by a changing climate. The fact that not all of the important biodiversity, especially the Warru (Black-footed rock wallaby, Petrogale lateralis) and Malu (Red kangaroo, Macropus rufus) has returned after recent rainfall was discussed widely in the workshops in the APY Lands:
“There used to be more birds, used to be singing everywhere here. It’s because there are more cats. Where have the Warru gone? The possums? The Warru were killed by foxes, cats and dingos. Sturt Desert Pea is finished now – why did that happen? Weeds like Dock and Buffel grass spread like a bushfire. There are prickles everywhere now, you used to be able to walk across the country without shows, but the Jacks have spread everywhere now. If we don’t look after country the animals will be finished too – just dust” (Amata 21/3/2011).
“Malu (red kangaroo) have gone somewhere, but we don’t know where, emus too, anything. They have all been killed – bang bang! I have been thinking – where are they all. Any malu that are around are skinny after the rain, because they eat too much green feed, it is just water” (Kanpi-Nyapari 22/3/2011).
“There are plenty of Euros in the hills, not many Warru. There are only 2 Warru in the hills behind the town. The Malu have all gone away. You need to travel 70, 80km to find any Malu. There has been a program for Warru at the zoo and they are bringing some out next week” (Kalka-Pipalyatjara 23/3/2011).
“There is much more bushfood now after the rain. The budgerigars, cockatoos, many birds come back after the rains – there is a lot of food. Other areas might not have animals like we have here. The malu get skinny because they eat the green plants, but the Euro are fat. There is lots of water up in the hills. You won’t see any kangaroos within 30km of town. The malu like the mulga country, you always see them there” (Watarru 24/3/2011).
The Warru rock wallabies were once abundant across the APY lands, but as Robinson et al. (2003, 202) note, “The rock-wallaby has become truly rare in the AP Lands over the past 70 years or so and most records during the survey were from old faecal pellets still present in caves and rock shelters.” Where major predators of the rock wallaby, including the dingo, fox and cat have been baited, numbers within wallaby colonies have increased. As the Warru is already restricted in range to the rocky mountains of the northern ranges, any warming trend or change in variability of rainfall could further reduce the likelihood of this species survival. Unlike this large marsupial, the Euro and
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Red Kangaroo are widespread throughout the AW NRM region and with relatively large populations and large niches are likely to be more adaptable to change. As Mackey et al. (2008, 13) note, “It is also possible for species to persist simply because they have evolved very wide fundamental (that is, physiological) niche requirements and are able to survive, compete and reproduce under a broad range of climatic conditions.” Nevertheless, there is a significant risk to these species having very low population densities around communities where hunting pressures are significant. Climate change may significantly affect large marsupial numbers in association with hunting pressures adjacent to Anangu communities.
In contrast to the mammalian species where rabbits, mice, camels, cats, foxes, donkeys, horses were all found in relatively large numbers in relation to native mammals, Robinson et al. (2003) discovered very few invasive species amongst the abundant avifauna of 115 bird species, and the 97 reptile and 5 frog species (Image 19).
Image 19. A King Brown Snake (Pseudechis australis) on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo: D Bardsley)
A review by Chambers et al. (2005, p. 15) suggests that climate change is likely to impact significantly on Australian bird populations' "geographic range, migration patterns, morphology, physiology, abundance, phenology and community composition." Many bird species’ populations are dependent on events triggered by rainfall in semi-arid areas, whether, for example, they are nectar, flower, fruit or seed feeders that rely on vegetation to enter reproductive phases or raptors and other predators that feed on small animals that increase significantly in abundance after rain
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events (Image 20). Robinson et al. (2003, 289) state that “Malleefowl, Bustards, Bush Stone- curlews, Striated Grasswrens, Emus, Princess Parrots and Scarlet-chested Parrots may all benefit from a reduction in the scale and frequency of wildfires at the broad landscape-scale. Management would need to focus on protection of habitats known to be occupied and/or used by these species and, in the longer term, to encourage an increase in the total area of such habitats of an appropriate age (since last fire).”
Image 20. Processionary Caterpillars (Ochrogaster lunifer) after significant summer rainfall on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo: D Bardsley)
Perhaps fauna and flora species highly dependent on more regular rainfall, or surface or sub- surface flows will be the most sensitive to changes in rainfall, if flow events become less frequent on average but more intense when they do occur (see Surface Water section). In a major review of the importance of permanent waterbodies in Central Australia, Box et al. (2008, 1395) state that “reliable water features, sustained mainly by natural groundwater discharge, provide distinct and isolated habitats for both aquatic and terrestrial species, even where these features are only minimally inundated.” Box et al. (2008, 1404) continue on to claim that “Permanent waterbodies serve as source populations for species to recolonise non-permanent sites, especially after prolonged droughts. Some waterbodies in Central Australia also provide refugia for plants and animals that were probably more widely distributed during less arid-paleo-climates.” Almost all of the surface water in the AW NRM region is temporary and pools/lakes are generally isolated from one another. For that reason, the few permanent sources, as well as the filling of temporary waterbodies, are vital for the retention, migration and abundance of different species and their populations. If climate change increases the rarity of rain events and leads to more intense but more infrequent events, the ecology of surface water will change fundamentally across the desert. To add to the complexity of the situation, as Tietjen and Jeltsch (2007, 426) state “More intense
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rainfall events with no change in total rainfall quantity can lead to lower and more variable soil water content. As a consequence, the above-ground net primary production is reduced”, and continue (p. 426), “higher temperatures are likely to intensify water stress through increased potential evapotranspiration.” There are likely to be thresholds of reduced water availability that lead to significant changes in populations and such thresholds could be examined in detail to ensure that management and recovery plans incorporate the impacts of changing conditions (Table 9).
Semi-arid vegetation will often have a pulse of regeneration during a particularly wet period, and then not reproduce in large numbers again for some time. Mackey et al. (2008, 13-14) highlight the likely important interactive effects of future climate change on other threatening processes including grazing pressure, fire, invasive species and other human disturbance. Prior et al. (2010, 560) note that a suggestion that Callitris glaucophylla “seedling recruitment in arid areas requires two successive years of above average rainfall may under-estimate the rainfall requirements for successful seedling establishment, because this condition was met when regional annual rainfall exceeded 600mm in both 2000 and 2001. It is noteworthy that conditions during the 1970s were conducive to recruitment of long-lived, fire sensitive acacias, whereas there was virtually no recruitment after the wetter-than-average period in 2000-2001.” The vegetation of the rangelands is already substantially altered by changes to fire regimes and total grazing pressure from introduced species both those used for agriculture (cattle) and invasive species, especially mammals, which are a major problem in the North (Tietjen and Jeltsch 2007; Prior et al. 2010). In particular, as Tietjen and Jeltsch (2007, 426) note “an increase in grazing pressure can lead to a reduction of palatable grasses and herbs coupled with an increase in both unpalatable grasses and herbs and woody plants.” Both of these topics are summarised in greater depth within their own chapters, but it is worth summarising the strong interactive effects of climate change and fire on biodiversity and land management.
Fire Management
Traditional Anangu cultural practices would have maintained mosaics of vegetation at different stages of succession after fire disturbance as part of their nomadic and semi-nomadic management of landscape (Edwards and Allan 2009). It is important to note that this mosaic may not have been an explicit goal of the traditional use of fire by Anangu, but rather a default outcome of cultural and hunting practices associated with people migrating and hunting regularly across large expanses of country.
The establishment of settlements and homelands, and changing migratory and hunting practices has disrupted the cultural processes that led to the complex fire regime, with most vegetation now experiencing fire more rarely, and when fire does pass through they are often larger, more intense wildfires. Moreover, as people are no longer walking country in the same way, most of the burning that does now occur is close to access tracks rather than distributed broadly across the landscape (Image 21).
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Image 21. Patch burning on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo: D Bardsley)
As Robinson et al. (2003, 347) state, the outcome of that change for the North in the APY lands is that “The patchy mosaic pattern disappeared and was replaced, on average, with a more even-aged and older range of plant communities that were able to carry wildfires over increasingly large areas.” These issues were discussed during the workshops in the APY Lands by the communities visited:
“Fire management is changing. The timing of burning is not always correct, with too little burning at times and then too often. If it is too infrequent we will get bad bushfires like Yulara had. The fire breaks are not there anymore” (Amata 21/3/2011).
“There is a lot of vegetation growing at the moment, which could provide a huge amount of fuel for fires when it dries out. There could be a very large, major fire across a vast area without putting fire breaks and other burning to reduce the fuel load. There is a very large area, but controlled burning is occurring across a limited part of it. Most of the burnt areas are linked to hunting grounds rather than for ecological reasons. Some country is still being burnt and just south of here and lots of vegetation has come back with the rain” (Kanpi- Nyapari 22/3/2011).
“People think the burning was for ecological reasons. Some of it was to flush out game as people travelled through, but a lot of it was to signal that you were passing through country to the traditional owners. You would light a fire, sit and wait until the Traditional owner arrived to give you permission to pass through his country, with access to water, bushfood etc. Otherwise you might be doing something bad. Still it had the effect of having a positive contribution to biodiversity. Now, because people aren’t walking country in the same way, the need to burn is just not there. Some people are burning to try and create green feed for Malu” (Watarru 224/3/2011).
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When fire arrives in a rangeland that is not regularly burnt, starting from lightening strikes or inadvertent human activity, the result is often large, hot wildfires that much fire-tolerant species such as the Acacia woodlands cannot tolerate. The risk to communities increases because the fires are large and less controllable. Furthermore, because large areas of habitat are lost at once, forms of recolonisation can be altered, wind and water erosion risk can increase, and different species are preferenced because they are more adapted to the new fire regimes. For example, entire dune systems may become more mobile after a major fire event which significantly reduces vegetation cover (see Land Management section).
Major fires can be particularly destructive across large areas when they occur soon after a series of wetter years, which means that more fuel is available to both increase the intensity of the fires and provide strong linkages through the landscape, which makes fire control very difficult (Image 22). In other areas that have not received a fire for some time, larger, perennial plant species, so called “woody weeds” may dominate, or dense grasses, particularly the invasive Buffel grass, may lead to much higher fuel loads than would have been present during pre-European times. Prior et al. (2010) found that Callitris glaucophylla (Northern Cypress Pine) was more likely to be found in areas of the MacDonnell Ranges in southern NT in areas that had not been burnt for a long period or was protected from fire.
Image 22. Spinifex grassland indicating level of biomass available for fuelling fires after significant summer rains on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo: D Bardsley)
Rarer, larger, hotter fires lead to a different non-equilibrium state to the complex mosaic associated with the traditional practice of Anangu burning country as a form of diplomacy and to facilitate hunting practices.
“We are trying to pull out the buffel grass, which is making the kangaroos sick. We can’t do the work after serious rain, we have had to wait a week. We need to take into account
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sacred areas when we are burning, the elders tell the rangers this. We wait until the grass dries off after rain and then we burn it off. When you burn buffel grass it burns the trees because it burns more than other grasses and burns hotter. Normally when you patch burn that wouldn’t happen, but with buffel grass the flames go up to the top of the shelter (about 4m). Buffel grass is pushing into Spinifex country and where it spears, you see, no other plants grow. There is too much to control, especially around here. It comes from Africa! New types of fires could happen, big, hot fires because it burns so big. There have been some big fires in the past from lightning, the trees burn and everything but you can’t control them. We used to control burn more in the past” (Kalka-Pipalyatjara 23/3/2011).
Climate change that leads to significant increases in vegetation during more extended wet periods, but also increases the extent of alternating dry periods, will exacerbate the risks to both community and to biodiversity via the changed fire regimes. Most wildfires occur in the drier part of the year. Edwards and Allan (2009, 1) found that across the southern Northern Territory “The occurrence of fires was fairly evenly distributed throughout the year, but August to October was the period when fires burnt the largest areas, with September being the peak of fire activity.” Most fires in the North of the AW NRM region have similarly occurred in the spring, but if summer rains become more important with climate change, as is projected for the North, more large fires may occur in the summer and autumn, after substantial vegetation growth from previous years dries out.
The impacts of fires in semi-arid rangelands may become much more severe if there is regularly more significant rainfall to generate vegetation, the fuel of fires. There is a researched precedent for such a scenario. During the last very big wet period associated with a strong La Niña pattern in 1973-74, vegetation across semi-arid Australia significantly increased the fuel load, and as Luke and McArthur (1978) describe, the subsequent fires across Central Australia were far more serious than after average rainfall years. Luke and McArthur (1978, 339) note that “The area burnt in inland regions of South Australia is estimated at 16 million hectares”, and continue, “a large proportion of the north-west of the State was burnt during the period from early in November [1974] until early in February [1975].” Luke and McArthur (1978, 341) conclude that “The total area burnt during the 1974-75 fire season was 117 million hectares or 15.2% of the land area of this continent.”
The South: Nullarbor, Yalata and Yellabinna
Much of the discussion of impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of the North is also relevant for the South, except in the South ecosystems are more dependent on winter rainfall, and that rainfall is projected to decrease considerably over time. That trend is not apparent as yet in the south west, although the southeast has been receiving less rainfall in winter. Summer rain has increased and may continue to increase as a proportion of total annual average rainfall with climate change. The key challenge to the region will be the projected reduction of relatively reliable and ecologically important autumn-winter-spring rainfall on the northern fringes of frontal systems.
The South forms an important component of the East-meets-West NatureLink that aims to maintain strong continuity between the ecosystems of Eyre Peninsular and south-east WA. “The Nullarbor plain is home to over 390 species of plants and 160 species of animals of which nine species recorded in the reserve are recognised as species of conservation significance at national and state levels” (DEH 2009, 3). The Nullarbor plain is typified by “Low open shrublands [which] occupy the centre of the region, thus the name Nullarbor, meaning treeless. The treeless plain is surrounded by low open woodlands except in the south where areas of woodland and mallee (multistemmed Eucalyptus shrubs) both occur. In places around the periphery of the treeless plain, small areas of
77 77 halophytic shrubland are found along the floors of occluded drainage lines” (McKenzie et al. 1989, 243). Similarly the IBRA regional survey for the Nullarbor (Australian Government 2011) states that “Sandplains with extensive seif dunes supporting a tree steppe of Eucalyptus gongylocarpa, Mulga and E. youngiana over hummock grassland occupy northern parts of the sub-region, but occasional breakaways and quartzite hills provide minor relief,” and continues “Low woodlands of Acacia papyrocarpa (Western Myall) over Maireana sedifolia (bluebush) dominate its central and southern parts. “ In their survey McKenzie et al. (1989, 246) found in the Nullarbor region, “96 bird species, 10 small ground-dwelling mammals, 59 reptiles, 157 ephemeral plants and 184 perennial plants.”
A number of extant marsupials are vulnerable or endangered and changes to rainfall patterns and particularly a drying trend could increase their vulnerability. In particular, there is some evidence to suggest that some rare and vulnerable mammalian species in the Nullarbor, such as the Heath Rat (Pseudomys shortridgei) may be relictual populations from an earlier wetter period and any further drying may increase the threat to such populations by restricting the climatic suitability further (Salinas et al. 2009). Similarly, Crossman et al. (2008) suggest that much vegetation adapted to the Mediterranean climate in SA could become less adapted to local conditions as bioclimatic envelopes move with climate change. Unlike the Mt Lofty Ranges, however, there will be few topographic refuges available to species as the warming drying trend occurs in the South of the AW NRM region.
The use of bore water to support mining activities in the Nullarbor and Yellabinna Regional reserves may impact on important unique semi-arid cave ecosystems in the Nullarbor Plain. The IBRA review (Australian Government 2011) states that the “Nullarbor Caves provide refuge for many evolutionarily relictual troglobites and troglophiles: crustaceans, centipedes, cockroachs, carabid beetles, orthopterans, pseudoscorpions and spiders. Two vertebrate species that are also known to use the Caves are the bat, Chalinolobus morio, and the Nullarbor population of the masked owl, Tyto novaehollandiae.” While DEH (2009, 11) suggest that “Regulation and monitoring of ongoing and future water extraction practices will be done to ensure impacts on the hydrology of the Nullarbor palaeochannels is minimised,” the groundwater systems are little understood and future climatic drying in the South could exacerbate that threat.
Again, some large parts of the South’s biodiversity is degraded due largely to the impacts of invasive species (see that section) and as the IBRA review states (Australian Government, 2011), “Reserve management is 'fair' [which here suggests a limited quality] because biodiversity values and/or management issues are poorly identified, weeds are widespread, considerable degradation has occurred in vegetation and components of the fauna (especially in the Great Victoria Desert Nature Reserve), resource degradation is occurring elsewhere (though retrievable), wildfire management is non-existent, and the ongoing impact of feral herbivores is unknown.”
While the South may be more exposed to a drying trend than the North, much of the terrestrial area is already conserved in regional reserves and National parks, and Marine Conservation areas are being proposed, which could provide significant opportunities for adaptation (Table 13). In fact, a big part of the vulnerability of the systems in the South is the very reason why they are so valuable – their remoteness and relatively intact wilderness values. “There is no management plan for the Nullarbor Regional Reserve” (DEH 2009, 14), which is a clear component of the risk because it remains relatively unknown how impacts like mining or groundwater extraction will impact on systems irrespective of the future projected warming, drying trend.
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Table 13. Vulnerability of biodiversity conservation in the South of the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region to climate change
Exposure Sensitivity Impact Adaptive capacity Vulner- ability High Medium-High Medium Medium Medium- -High High The projected drying Most local biodiversity There is strong internal trend will be highly adapted to variable, resilience but whether significant hot, dry conditions that translates to an Longer, drier Diverse flexible internal capacity for periods and rare but ecosystems require rainfall adaptation is uncertain more intense rainfall triggers for ecological & Spatial adjustments events will alter key physiological processes limited invaded systems ecological triggers. Trends in climate will have The remoteness of some significant impacts on large areas with bioclimatic niches of generalist species species presents management There are few refuges opportunities to ensure related to topography large areas remain Currently the South is relatively intact semi-arid, but a threshold Few people with limited in aridity could lead to resources, but the East- more mobile sands or meets-West NatureLinks otherwise degraded investment offers landscapes opportunities for a Unique water-related cave revaluation of the ecosystems could be at conservation values. threat if groundwater recharge declines.
5.3 Adaptation response
It is possibly because of semi-arid rangeland’s adaptation to highly variable climatic conditions that, in a recent review, Hughes (2011) does not list the semi-arid ecosystems as one of the more vulnerable in Australia. There is already considerable resilience built into semi-arid ecosystems as they must tolerate “normal” long periods of little rainfall and be able to respond quickly and effectively to stochastic rainfall events. The projections to 2030 do not suggest that there will be a fundamental change in these dominant conditions in the North, but the longer-term drying trend across southern Australia, may in fact make ecosystems in the Nullarbor Plains and Yellabinna regions significantly more vulnerable over time.
Adaptive capacity is limited by remoteness and resources, but there are significant opportunities for improving management. Across the AW NRM region data collection and analysis is largely undertaken on an ad hoc basis which makes research and monitoring of ecological condition difficult. Ecological surveys, such as those undertaken in impressive form by Robinson et al. (2003) in the APY Lands, could be repeated spatially and updated at regular intervals to increase knowledge and understanding of the impacts of climate change and other threats on the region. As Horstman and Wightman (2001, 99) state in relation to semi-arid areas of Australia, “It is widely recognized that our knowledge of many species and their distribution, let alone how they live
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together, is patchy. The absence of baseline studies often makes it difficult to identify and predict environmental impacts.” Given the lack of comprehensive formal, scientific knowledge on the state of regional biodiversity, traditional ecological knowledge becomes even more important to incorporate into discussions of managing NRM in the context of changing climates. Horstman and Wightman (2001, 99) continue on to point out:
“The natural sciences of Aboriginal people draw on a wealth of ecological knowledge from thousands of generations of direct experience. Knowledge of species and their relationships is immense and detailed. Aboriginal histories of environmental change record uniquely long memories of country. Aboriginal ‘baselines’ describe environmental features over timescales ranging from decades to millennia; from the last sea level rise or volcanic eruption, to the recent invasion of new human societies with their suite of alien life forms.”
The ability of native species and ecosystems to remain within bioclimatic envelopes by migrating along climatic and geographical gradients will be a fundamental component of any adaptive response which aims to maintain their ecological integrity and genetic heterogeneity in an era of climate change (Geertsema et al. 2002). Detailed studies that examine the interaction between climate and key life process and stages for important biodiversity could become increasingly important. For example, Chambers et al. (2008) show the effect of climate on avian breeding patterns. Knowledge of such interactions could then be used as indicators of the impacts of climate change, as well as informing future projections for modelling and planning. For example, there are so many uncertainties regarding the implications of a potential drying trend on the rangelands of the South that the follow-up study for the Nullarbor and work undertaken for the East-meets-West NatureLink will be highly valuable additions to many, relatively poorly understood systems.
Modelling applications can suggest potential climate change impacts on the bioclimatic envelopes in which species and communities are found (Pyke and Fischer 2005, Saxon et al. 2005; Crossman et al. 2008). The fossil record suggests that ecosystems have been relatively adaptable to climate change, but largely over longer time frames than predicted (Kappelle et al. 1999). As climate change will be comparatively rapid in an ecological sense, many species, communities or ecosystems will have to adapt or move quickly in that context. The good news is that ecotones, or regions of mixed communities on the boundary of separate ecosystems, have been shown to migrate relatively swiftly across the landscape and, if linkages are maintained between natural systems, species and individuals of both plants and animals can be highly mobile in rangeland environments (Allen and Breshears 1998).
It generally holds that the most vulnerable biodiversity will be those species and systems with smaller populations or a smaller adaptive range, and this principle will be reinforced under climate change. Limited populations &/or ranges suggest that a species is marginal to the area, has become isolated due to changing conditions, or has a very small niche that could become unstable quite easily. Terrestrial ecosystems will be at least risk from climate change when they can remain intact and maintain their ecological integrity within their current location. The most vulnerable species and systems are likely to be those that will need to respond to changing bioclimatic envelopes, yet cannot migrate with the changing conditions, either because they are unable to shift across the landscape by colonising new areas or there is no suitable area of an appropriate climatic range into which they could move. For all of these reasons, an integrated planning response will need to recognise that species and ecosystems require time, space and resilience to adjust effectively to change. While specific studies that review projected impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of the AW NRM region are limited, resilience of current natural systems can be enhanced by effective management practices associated with grazing, invasive species, fire and hunting.
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Any adaptation strategy will need to strengthen biodiversity linkages and buffers in the landscape to allow or even support invasivity of desirable native species along temperature and precipitation gradients. Problems will arise with some species, particularly long-lived plant species with little dispersal ability and specific establishment requirements that are unlikely to move quickly, if at all in association with changed climatic conditions. There is also the risk that linkages in the landscape may benefit species such as invasive plant and animals, and feral predators in particular, over native species. Some species/communities/ecosystems will have nowhere to move to, particularly those currently adapted to rare or small habitats. Actions relating to these species could require particular planning so that they remain as intact as possible with any refuges that remain viable. Important refugia within the AW NRM region such as temporary and permanent wetlands or highland areas could be specifically identified and incorporated into more formalised conservation processes (Duguid et al. 2002; Mackey et al. 2008, 15). The Central Ranges already represent a refuge for many species in Central Australia. Robinson et al. (2003, 346) state that “The Central Ranges Bioregion of which the AP Lands is a part but which extends into WA and the NT is of great biogeographic significance. It provides a series of less extreme refuges in the sheltered gorges and on the high peaks to support species, which could not survive on the surrounding arid plains.” A broad strategy for biodiversity conservation in an era of rapid climate change might involve elements such as:
research to identify biophysical and ecological components vulnerable to climate change; stricter protection of relatively undisturbed, contiguous ecosystems by extending, redefining and possibly supplementing reserves; reduction of external pressures on reserves and remnants; creation of mosaics, linkages & buffer zones across the landscape; upgrading the importance of invasive species management.
Impacts on biodiversity might be minimised by applying a range of approaches, most of which would bolster current approaches to biodiversity management in general, by reducing external pressures, creating buffers, mosaics, linkages, extending and redefining reserve areas. Conservation priority should be given to the protection and revegetation of areas with indigenous species adjacent to large, relatively undisturbed areas, with cores remote from mechanical access and edge effects. In general terms, larger areas contain more species, are more likely to sustain stable populations of species, and will be least affected by hazards such as fires, disease or human disturbance as climate changes. A need exists to identify key conservation priorities within the different IBRA bioregions under changing climatic conditions, to protect remnants and to provide suggestions of the methods or extent of revegetation required to meet threshold levels of conservation within different ecosystems. Where in situ conservation programs are seen to be at risk, contingency ex situ conservation plans for the strict preservation of native species may need to become a larger component of management approaches for these species.
Vital issues for rangeland management may be more strongly associated with a lack of understanding, monitoring and management of current conditions, rather than with any future long term changes to ecosystems and species bioclimatic envelopes associated with climate change.
There are still important opportunities for incorporating large areas of the AW NRM rangelands into more formalised conservation programs. As (Mackey et al. 2008, 15) note, “Currently, large and intact landscapes are not recognized as a high priority for new reserves in Australia because
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conservation investments are being directed to threatened species and ecosystems in land that has been highly disrupted by past land use. We argue the inverse, namely, that intact landscapes must become the highest priority for a continental-wide conservation plan.” The East-meets-West and Arid Lands NatureLinks are precisely the type of conservation programs that could lead to effective conservation outcomes in a changing climate, to maximise opportunities for resilience to support ecological adaptation through improved connectively between areas of habitat. Mackay et al (2008, 16) go on to say that “Extending systematic conservation planning to private, Indigenous and freehold land will require innovative mechanisms that offer incentives to land owners and stewards, such as voluntary covenants and negotiated special leasehold conditions.” These ideas are explored in some greater depth in the concluding chapter, but it is worth outlining one example in relation to fire management.
If fire can be used as a tool during cooler periods, or amongst more fire-tolerant vegetation or by applying low intensity scattered burning that only burns the understorey, the likelihood of major wildfires would be reduced, while maintaining some level of disturbance across large areas (Edwards and Allan 2009). The use of fire was a fundamental traditional method utilised by Anangu to communicate, to hunt and to manage country. As the traditional methods of walking country and hunting diminish in importance, so too have the implicit and explicit processes of environmental management associated with traditional burning practices. The importance of fire for the ecology of the AW NRM region, raises a vital point - if the rangelands systems are seen as fundamental for the health of regional ecosystems, and yet there are no longer relevant Anangu cultural practices on the scale required (Hill and Williams 2009, 166), it could be increasingly necessary to recognise the role of mosaic burning using appropriate methods as an important professional activity of traditional owners. The complexity and scale of these processes across vast and diverse areas would require full-time, professional rangers who choose to take on these roles and are trained for this considerable management activity, not only in the North, but also the South of the AW NRM region.
If Traditional Owners are going to be asked to perform a major task that has significant benefits to the State, such as patch burning, then they will need to be employed as professionals to do that work.
5.4 Suggested Example Biodiversity Projects
Project 1 : Climate knowledge and biodiversity indicators
This project would examine the relationship in the AW NRM region between climate and a range of key biodiversity that could be used as indicators of the impacts of climate change on local ecosystems. The project would wish to examine how climate variability, trends and extremes, particularly in rainfall and its relationship with phase shifts in rangeland condition. Example species could be investigated for the different sub-regions identified in Figure 2, such that these systems and/or species could be regularly monitored against climatic conditions. It would be important to identify some climate sensitive species, some threatened species and some species that would be expected to not show significant population density responses to stochastic rainfall events. Ongoing monitoring of selected indicator systems and species would guide monitoring of rangeland condition.
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Actions
Develop studies that investigate the relationship between biodiversity and climate across the sub-regions of the AW NRM region Regular ongoing monitoring of indicator systems and species would be undertaken, perhaps at annual or 5 year intervals to determine if trends in biodiversity can be related to climatic conditions.
Outcomes
Monitoring of indicator systems and/or species would suggest climate triggers of ecological condition, trends in biodiversity due to climatic triggers, as well as early evidence of regime shifts that may occur due a combination of management and climate. Biodiversity condition would inform planning and management, including triggers for: the establishment of refuges; the strict protection of certain species and/or species types such as run-on dependent-ecosystems; changes to pastoral or hunting activities; and, changes to conservation classifications.
Project 2 : Protecting key biodiversity assets
This project would aim to work with Traditional Owners to identify necessary early management activities to protect key biodiversity assets in areas under threat. It is beyond the scope of the project to identify all of these activities across the region, although a number of important points have been articulated above and in workshop discussion. The project would be strongly influenced by local opinion of regional Anangu communities of appropriate responses to recognised and/or projected threats due to climate change, and would employ participatory approaches for project development and application throughout the region.
Actions
The actions would target necessary management activities as identified by local communities in conjunction with the AW NRM Board, other stakeholders and associated researchers including: fire management; invasive species management; hunting management; surface & groundwater dependent ecosystem protection; watering-point management; grazing-pressure management; and, other key management activities as identified in discussions and workshops. Programs would be developed to work together with all stakeholders to implement activities that train and employ local people to undertake strong management responses to ensure vital biodiversity is protected.
Outcomes
Biodiversity assets would be identified that are of high local value and under threat. Management plans would be developed in a participatory manner that integrates local and traditional knowledge and scientific information, as well as traditional and other governance structures and activities to best manage key assets. Biodiversity, much of which comes under increasing threat with climate change in conjunction with other natural and anthropogenic pressures, would be carefully monitored and managed.
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Project 3: Undertake and repeat Biological surveys
The work by Robinson et al. (2003) provides an excellent relevant example of an approach to undertake comprehensive biological surveys that integrates traditional and scientific knowledge. Such surveys provide an incredibly valuable resource as well as facilitating excellent exchanges of information and networking of key stakeholders. Participatory ecological research need to be repeated regularly to maintain social capacity, to ensure an ongoing understanding of ecological conditions and to guide decision-making.
Actions
Undertake and repeat biological surveys at appropriate intervals in key areas throughout the region. Link surveys to the goals of policy such as the Federal Caring for Country program and the SA State No Species Loss and NatureLinks programs.
Outcomes
Biodiversity assets would be identified that are of high value and under threat. Trends in biodiversity condition could be understood and responded to. Knowledge would be integrated and local people supported to work with and to be NRM researchers.
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6. Invasive species management
6.1 Section Summary
Invasive Species
Vulnerability Medium-High
Climate Change Impacts Increased disturbance from fire and floods provides niches for invasive species Native species will become more stressed and less competitive Changed climate may suit exotic species more than natives
Adaptation Options Undertake more scientific & community based monitoring Implement control programs Harvest feral camel populations for meat Biological control of invasive species Reduce pressures such as grazing, disturbance from roads etc. on native species
Suggested Example Projects Develop understanding of local perceptions of invasive exotic species Support programs to identify biological control agents for most aggressive invasive species Research opportunities to exploit invasive species, including camel harvesting.
6.2 Climate change impacts
Invasive exotic species are animals, plants or pathogens that establish and increase in population locally and create risks to indigenous species, ecosystems and/or agricultural ecosystems and/or human health and safety. For example, invasive species are generally very effective colonisers of new and available space and/or ecological niches within a landscape or ecosystem, and often have strong competitive advantages over local species, such as a broad niche, once they become established. Climate change impacts on the AW region such as longer dry periods and shorter but more intensive wet periods are likely to increase disturbance of intact ecosystems and increase opportunities for the transport of propagules such as seeds or rhizomes (Kriticos et al. 2010). In fact, as discussed also in the Biodiversity Conservation section, due to the projected shift in bioclimatic envelopes, where species could possibly exist spatially just due to climatic parameters, the entire concept of local or indigenous species of intact native ecosystems will also need to change (Bardsley and Edwards-Jones 2007).
With rapid climate change, highly invasive species, exotic to local ecosystems, are likely to have greater ecological and aesthetic impacts on landscapes and systems. For example, as most exotic weeds and animals are good colonisers after disturbance and within stressed ecosystems, they are predicted to respond favourably to climate change as local ecosystems and species are threatened by changing conditions. Important insects, such as biological control agents, could also be affected as changing climates alter the populations and activities of vectors such as mosquitoes. This issue
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also raises questions of the impact of climate change on infectious disease and other aspects of human health, which are beyond the scope of this study.
Invasive species already have significant impacts on the natural resources of the AW region. “Rabbits especially, because of their historical high numbers in Central Australia, can have an impact on isolated wetlands through intense grazing on riparian vegetation” (Box et al. 2008, 1409). Robinson et al. (2003: iv) found for the North that “The AP Lands are remarkable for the low incidence of alien plants, which comprised only 2.6% of quadrat records. Overall only 25 introduced species were recorded, representing 3.5 % of the total flora encountered. This reflects the relatively intact vegetation in the AP Lands compared to most other regions of the State.” In contrast, the biological survey revealed significant densities of invasive exotic animals including the rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus), House Mouse (Mus musculus) and although of questionable status, the Dingo (Canis lupus dingo) (Robinson et al. 2003). Robinson et al. (2003, 202) go on to say that “Other common and widespread introduced species include the Arabian Camel (Camelus dromedarius), the Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes), the Feral Cat (Felis catus), Domestic Cattle (Bos taurus), Feral Horses (Equus caballus), Feral Donkeys (Equus asinus) and Mules which are hybrids between these two species.” The high density and diversity of invasive mammal species already presents a considerable threat to native species via both direct and indirect competition, predation and the vectoring of diseases and pests in the North.
“Foxes are a big problem because they eat the Warru and the birds. We need fox baiting like they’ve had in other areas to ensure that we have wallabies. There are still some Warru in this part of the Ranges. There is no IPA here, but it is not just the east that has important areas, there is a lot of important biodiversity here too. We know that young people from Amata and Kalka are being paid to go and look for Warru scat. Also, Mimili has been taking school kids out to learn about country. We could do that here too” (Kanpi- Nyapari 22/3/2011).
In the relatively remote areas such as the Great Victoria Desert the sensitivity to invasive species may not be as great, because there are not such large numbers of exotic species to spread out and establish further into intact ecosystems. However, in the South, as the IBRA review (2011) states, “weeds, fire and feral predators and herbivores have substantially modified habitats over extensive areas of both sub-regions and caused numerous extinctions in indigenous mammals. Trend is declining as weeds continue to spread, displacing indigenous vegetation”, and continue, “A high proportion of its original mammal fauna is extinct, vegetation cover has been stripped from large areas and replaced with the invasive weed Carrichtera annua, foxes and cats are ubiquitous, and until recently rabbits were so common that a rabbit skin and meat industry flourished in the region.” Although another recent review of the Nullarbor Reserve (DEH 2009) suggests that these impacts are relatively minor, increased mining exploratory activity in particular will undermine the potential wilderness values of remoteness and inaccessibility, fundamental to reducing the risks of invasive species. For example, as the report (DEH 2009, 3) suggests “the development of the Jacinth- Ambrosia Mineral Sands Project in Yellabinna Regional Reserve has involved the granting of mining tenements and other licences to support the development of the mine. Activities that have impacted upon the reserve include: the upgrade of Ooldea Road and creation of access tracks and borrow pits associated with excavating material for the road upgrade; and borefield developments for providing water to the mine.”
The SA Mining Act 1971 is legislated to guarantee “approvals and regulatory mechanisms are in place to ensure that on-ground activities are planned, implemented and rehabilitated in a manner that will avoid and minimise impacts to the natural and cultural features of the land” (DEH 2009, 6).
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However, some evidence suggests that road access for mining is an increasingly disturbing feature for ecosystems. A stronger likelihood of drying in the South may still see the vulnerability of ecosystems to invasive species threats remaining high. This is especially true as new developments increase pressure in the South, either via mineral exploration and mining or the establishment of agricultural and tourism, all of which could increase fragmentation of ecosystems and increase opportunities for invasion. As well as new invasive species risks, established feral animals such as rabbits, which have been relatively effectively controlled across the region at times in the past, but have the potential to have major impacts on biodiversity and land degradation, will need to be continually monitored and managed.
"Rabbits also need to be controlled and then the country burned so that new vegetation can grow. Rabbits were knocked back in the 1980s by people putting poison in their burrows. Then about 15 years ago all the rabbits died with disease, but that had a negative impact on local food security, because people were eating them regularly. Now rabbits are coming back again. We try and plant some seedlings but they are very difficult to manage because dogs come and dig them up even when there is wire around them” (Kanpi-Nyapari 22/3/2011).
The projections of climate change are likely to weaken the capacity of local ecosystems to resist invasion of animals and plants, and also reduce their resilience to the impacts of these exotic species including, grazing pressure, predation, competition, land degradation, degradation of waterholes and disease (Table 14) (Kriticos et al. 2010).
Table 14. Vulnerability to invasive species due to climate change in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Exposure Sensitivity Impact Adaptive capacity Vulner- ability High Medium-High Medium- Medium Medium- High High More droughts, storms Invasive species Invasive species control is & altered fire regimes already present in already difficult in most will increase large numbers cases, due to self-reinforcing disturbance in and having feedback loops. terrestrial, surface & significant Opportunities for research marine ecosystems impacts and local action exist to Currently largely intact Increased control and exploit invasive systems are likely to systems species experience further disturbance The capacity to manage invasion pressures, would enhance invasive species is largely particular from the opportunities for restricted to key assets such north. invasion as important habitats and waterholes
Apart from the extenuation of established threats, new species or new impacts of established species may also become increasingly important. These types of new threats are incorporated in the discussion below in relation to different important species, but examples may include the broadening of impacts across larger areas by exotic herbivores such as camels, horses and donkeys during vital periods of regeneration during wet periods, if volumes of rainfall increase during such times and there is more standing water. Already, the introduction of bores and watering
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points for stock has meant that feral animals that require regular drinks can disperse more widely throughout the North of the AW NRM region. Other examples of potential risks may involve species that are largely restricted to the more summer dominated semi-arid regions or tropical regions including Tamarix sp., Buffel Grass or diseases such as Dengue Fever becoming more established, again especially during wetter, more intensive La Niña periods. Box et al. (2008, 1409) note that “Non-native plants can also impact ecosystem-level processes by changing soil salinity (e.g. The athel pine (Tamarix aphylla) in the Finke River drainage), soil nutrient composition, evaporation rates, watertable levels, groundwater recharge rates, and the geomorphology of waterbodies through erosional processes.” We go into significant detail in relation to two major emerging threats in the AW NRM region, namely invasive camels and Buffel grass. These species are by no means the only invasive species threats in the AW NRM region, but the types of impacts and interactions with climate change effects are indicative of the vulnerability of the region to this particular threat.
Camels (Camelus dromedarius)
Wild camels are common throughout the AW NRM region and already have major impacts on the natural resources of the region (Image 23) (AW NRM Board 2010). “Forty-three percent of the current feral camel population is on Aboriginal lands, 22% on pastoral lands and 10% on lands under conservation management” (Zeng and Edwards 2010, 64). In a review of impacts of camels on Central Australian aboriginal communities, Vaarzon-Morel (2008, 1) found that “all the communities surveyed reported that they had feral camels in the region surrounding their communities, with most perceiving that camel numbers were increasing.” In a parallel review of pastoralists across semi-arid Australia, which excluded Aboriginal Lands, Zeng and Edwards (2010, 63) found that “camels occurred on 74.2% of pastoral properties and 51.4% of reserves that were surveyed. Camels were reported to be increasing on more than 50% of pastoral properties and 88% of reserves and were reported to cause damage on most properties where they occurred.”
Image 23. Feral camel (Camelus dromedarius) on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo: D Bardsley)
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During the long dry period in the AW NRM regions camels became a particular problem within many Anangu communities, as highlighted in the APY workshops:
“Camels and cats are the big problem, donkeys, rabbits, horses…. Camels eat anything, so all plants are vulnerable during the drought. Because they have soft, padded feet, camels don’t seem to have the same impact on the soil as cattle, which cut up the country with their hard hooves. There is a problem with camels all collecting in the clay pan areas, which are low lying and hold the water and green feed longer. Large numbers come together when it is dry in areas where some water of green feed remains and they poison wetlands. The water table is rising in some of these areas and salt is coming up through the ground, because the camels walk all over these areas. Camels wallow and feed in large numbers down in the clay pans, which removes vegetation and brings the salt to the surface as groundwater levels are no longer drawn down by trees. These areas then become very dusty. When they dry out there is a dust bowl as areas of the clay pans expand. Our country is blowing away from us. Our country is blowing across to Birdsville and the east of Australia is flying over to New Zealand! Camels have come into town in large numbers looking for water – torn off taps, knocked off air-conditioners, broke other water infrastructure such as tanks” (Amata 21/3/2011).
“Camels leave when they have water around. People were scared when the camels came into town, into houses, with the dry. The camels knocked over fences, knocked off taps looking for water. There are some important rockholes for men around here. Camels muck up the rockholes and die in them during the dry. We need to clean them out because they fill up, and then fence them with a strong one to keep the camels out. It is no use using ordinary wire, need cable wire. Camels just lean on the fence until they knock it over’ (Kanpi-Nyapari 22/3/2011).
“Camels have been a big issue here during the dry, they knocked down a tank, fences, taps and other infrastructure. Camels take out fences, break everything here, air-conditioners, taps. Nothing much can stop the camels, no fence, and they clean up the quandong. We used to have to chase them out of town every night 2 or 3 years ago. They broke everything! They knocked over the tank, and broke the tent up there (points to the school). In Amata, some people got hurt. The camels bugger up the water, we can’t drink it. They muck around the rockholes. Camels drink all the water up, even up the hill in the rockholes. They only come when it is Christmas time, when it is hot and dry” (Kalka-Pipalyatjara 23/3/2011).
“You can see the camels come into the clay pans and walk through the mud and churn it up, so they don’t grow anything when it dries out. The camels are not here now, they have moved out with the rain. You see the camels on the roads. We shut the taps off and shut the gates and put water drums further out of town, so that they don’t come into the community. We had to protect the airstrip from the camels as well when it was dry, but they have gone away now it is wet. There used to be quandongs out in the sandhills, but the camels ate them all and killed the trees. There were just seeds on the ground” (Watarru 24/3/2011).
Although there are some relatively minor benefits obtained by harvesting feral camels, their impact is already very significantly negative across the AW region, and in fact, across much of semi-arid
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Australia. For example, they are causing significant impacts to claypans where they reduce infiltration and increase erosion rates (Image 24).
Image 24. Feral camels on a claypan in the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo: D Bardsley)
“Feral camels have significant negative impacts on the environment and the social/cultural values of Aboriginal people. These impacts include damage to vegetation through feeding behaviour and trampling; suppression of recruitment in some plant species; damage to wetlands through fouling, trampling, and sedimentation; competition with native animals for food, water and shelter; damage to sites such as waterholes, that have cultural significance to Aboriginal people; destruction of bushfood resources; reduction in Aboriginal people’s enjoyment of natural areas; creation of dangerous driving conditions; damage to people and vehicles due to collisions, and being a general nuisance in remote settlements. Negative economic impacts of feral camels mainly include direct control and management costs, impacts on livestock production through camels competing with stock for food and other resources and damage to production-related infrastructure” (Edwards et al. 2010, 43).
Further drying associated with more extreme rainfall events and wet periods could benefit camels at the expense of native and other invasive herbivores. Camels can range further than domestic livestock and other feral herbivores because they are not as constrained by proximity to permanent water, they are also not controlled like domestic stock, in that there is little ability to reduce their numbers rapidly during dry periods when rangeland condition has declined. They maintain relatively high populations during dry periods, are able to range widely from water points and are able to make good use of temporary surface water in remote areas when it is available.
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Figure 21. Example interactions between feral camels and desertification processes
Key Drivers
Dryer, more variable climate
Feral animals Feedback Processes
Degraded Camels reduce vegetation on claypan vegetation claypans and infiltration
Higher groundwater Increased land levels and increased degradation surface salt accumulation
Increased dust and wind erosion
Outcomes
Increased dust and wind erosion Claypans become saline and unable to support native vegetation Exacerbation of local drought conditions
Projected climate change across the AW NRM region is likely to enhance the impacts of camels on settlements, infrastructure, cultural values and the environment. Edwards et al. (2010, 45) state that “Camels have a broad diet, and although they are considered to be browsers, they have been observed to feed on most of the available plant species in areas where the diet has been examined”, and continue on to note that “During dry times camels mainly consume leaves from trees, whereas in wet periods they favour ground vegetation. Camels damage trees and shrubs when browsing and can severely defoliate preferred trees, shrubs, and vines. They also inhibit recruitment of their preferred food species by suppressing flowering and fruit production and by browsing and killing juvenile plants.”
Camels can damage culturally important wetlands and seriously effect standing water-dependent biodiversity by disturbing waterholes, increasing chances of eutrophication and depleting surface water and vegetation immediately adjacent to waterholes (Figure 21 & Image 25) (Box et al. 2008;
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Vaarzon-Morel 2008; Edwards et al. 2010). Camels in search of water have disrupted activities and infrastructure such as buildings and fences in and around APY communities in the past (Edwards et al. 2010). If there are longer, drier periods then the number of camels moving into Anangu towns in search of water and food could increase, augmenting pressures on communities.
Image 25. Feral camel carcass adjacent to wetlands on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo: D Bardsley)
Buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris)
Buffel grass is emerging as a major threat to biodiversity in the North of the AW NRM region and into the Great Victoria Desert (AW NRM Board 2010). Robinson et al. (2003, 343) note that “The AP Lands are remarkable for the low incidence of alien plants, with only 25 introduced species recorded on survey quadrats or as opportunistic sightings. This number is only 3.5 % of the total flora, and reflects the relatively intact vegetation in the AP Lands compared to most other regions of the State. Nevertheless, a few of the alien species found in the AP Lands are of concern and Buffel Grass (Cenchrus ciliaris) in particular is considered to be a serious management issue.” In a similar manner to the invasive camels described above, buffel grass establishment and increases in density provide both costs and benefits for NRM. Buffel grass originated in northern Africa and has been widely planted across summer rainfall dominant semi-arid areas of Australia to provide relatively drought-tolerant stock fodder and to assist in the rehabilitation of degraded lands (Jackson
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2005; Smyth et al. 2009). The plant has subsequently become a serious invasive weed across the semi-arid region of Australia, which has the capacity to change local ecosystems significantly, particularly by crowding out native vegetation and altering fire regimes (Images 26 & 27).
Image 26. Dense stands of Buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris) adjacent to the schoolyard in Watarru (Photo: D Bardsley)
Image 27. Buffel grass adjacent to roadside on Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo; D Bardsley)
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There is growing evidence that buffel grass has already reduced native plant and animal diversity in areas that it is well established. These issues were raised in the APY workshops:
“The buffel grass grew up after the rain and there are a lot more flies. The buffel grass used to make the camel sick but the cattle got used to them. The buffel grass are mostly along the roads – they don’t seem to push in too far because the animals don’t seem to want to eat them. Camels choose to eat other plants. The buffel grass is the worst thing – is there anything we can do about it? We try and control the buffel grass, which is a big problem. It is all around here. We try and burn it, but it keeps coming back, we dig but it keeps coming. There is a new fire risk around communities with a lot of buffel grass through the town. We need help to deal with this. It could be a good project to focus on buffel grass here, to stop it spreading south, to map it, control it” (Watarru 24/3/2011).
Figure 22. Integrative climate and land degradation processes associated with the establishment of Buffel grass
Key Drivers
Dryer, more variable climate Feedback Processes Invasive exotic plants Weakened native plants and increased competition from Buffel grass Hot fires kill Buffel grass off native spreads vegetation
Increased fire risk due to large areas of highly flammable Buffel grass
Outcomes Increased erosion due to bare soil without native vegetation
More disturbance from droughts, fires or flood events associated with climate change could increase the likelihood of Buffel grass invasions, especially as many species will become less- climatically adapted with their current established range (Figure 22). Buffel grass may significantly alter local fire regimes by increasing the fuel load locally (see Fire Management in Biodiversity Conservation section), leading to more, hotter fires that subsequently create colonisation conditions which are ideal for further buffel grass intrusion (Jackson 2005). “Soil disturbance and removal of
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native vegetation cover by fire and/or by large numbers of introduced herbivores can lead to displacement of native plant species by introduced weed species. In the AP Lands the range of such weedy species is still relatively small, although several of these are spreading rapidly. Buffel Grass is probably the most insidious of these invaders as it will carry wildfires well and will re-sprout again afterwards from a perennial rootstock before many of the native species get a chance to recover. It is spreading rapidly across the AP Lands, principally along main roads and flood-out areas” (Robinson et al 2003, 346).
6.3 Adaptation Response
There is already a well-studied understanding of the major impacts that some invasive species are having on the regional NRM. A major focus of plant and animal control programs for biodiversity conservation in an era of climate change will be the focussed management in and adjacent to vital, rare habitat types, especially any surface water resources. Biosecurity strategies, such as risk management assessments, should incorporate climate risk assessments that take into account climate change predictions. Further detailed assessments of the vulnerability of native plants and animals to invasive systems under different climate change projections will be fundamental.
Modelling of the types and ranges of impacts climate change will have on species and systems would provide important guides for planning. This process will involve detailed assessments of climate change impacts on fire regimes in association with invasive species in the AW NRM region. The availability and use of different potentially invasive species such as Buffel grass in primary industries may need to be re-evaluated as climate change may increase the impacts of such species. Some work within DENR Pest Animal and Plant Control and associated researchers are examining the risks of current and potential weeds (Kriticos et al. 2010). There will be a significant SA Government investment in controlling camels in the APY Lands, and clearly this project is required. Similarly, the AW NRM Board plans to limit the spread of Buffel grass to north of the main Adelaide-Perth train line. Projects such as these could strongly integrate local knowledge and involvement so that Anangu are supported to recognise and respond to local threats as they emerge. Local involvement to manage invasive species is a vital issue, which is discussed further in the concluding chapter, but it is worth highlighting specific issues in relation to camels here.
The concept of invasive species management may need to be reformed, because some invasive exotic species are so widespread in large numbers that they are the most common mammals across the landscape (Bardsley and Edwards-Jones 2007). Buffel grass is already present in very high densities in and around many communities. Camels, as a further example, are widespread in very large numbers, and could be conceptualised as an asset for communities rather than a species to be eliminated. Even without future climate change, Edwards et al. (2010, 53) “recommend that feral camels be managed to a long-term target density of 0.1–0.2 camels/km2 at property to regional scales (areas in the order of 10,000–100,000 km2) in order to mitigate broad scale negative impacts on infrastructure on pastoral stations and in remote settlements, and plant species which are highly susceptible to camel browsing. At these densities, the degree of damage to pastoral infrastructure is in the order of $2000–3000/km2 over 2 years. For most pastoralists, this may be a tolerable level of damage. Given that camels already occur at localised densities >1 animals/km2 over a large expanse of their current range, there is an urgent need to act now to safeguard the environmental, social/cultural and production assets of the Australian rangelands.” Live harvesting could be increased, with the potential to expand industries such as pet and human meat consumption. Culling is also applied, but Vaarzon-Morel (2008, 3) note Anangu concerns with “the sight of dead camel bodies, associated disease and smell, and an increase in the dingo population.” Vaarzon-
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Morel (2008, 4) continue on to conclude that “few Aboriginal people are currently involved in camel management. However, a small number have broad experience working with camels and have relevant skills and knowledge, which they are keen to use in feral camel management programs on Aboriginal land. It is important to both recognise and build on this knowledge and interest base when developing and implementing feral camel management plans”, but also notes that “Aboriginal people lack the necessary support and resources required to play a greater role in feral camel management.” The different forms of camel management were discussed during the APY workshops:
“Some people argue that camels should be shot because they are disrupting landscape but others argue that they should harvest camels and it would be a wasted resource if they are just shot” (Amata 21/3/2011).
“We are setting up another dam and tanks further away, so that the camels are drawn away from the community, but that is only a temporary solution. Camels and donkeys are not hunted much because of the religious aspects; Mary rode a donkey, the three wise men on camels, etc. We do round up camels occasionally, shoot them feed them to the dogs, sometimes salt meat to give to people. Some people eat camel, good meat. We need to herd them together and transport them” (Kalka-Pipalyatjara 23/3/2011).
The management of camels could be one important area where an industry could develop in remote parts of the AW NRM region, with significant environmental and cultural advantages from the management of an important invasive species in a comprehensive manner. Improvements in support could involve a range of mechanisms from better information, through to direct compensatory mechanisms that integrate effective indigenous NRM to greater community development and financial reward (see Conclusion).
6.4 Suggested Example Invasive Species Projects
Project 1 : Invasive species knowledge
This project would examine in detail which invasive, exotic species local people are seeing as most deleterious to country and to their communities. Those local perceptions would be compared and contrasted with scientific knowledge to facilitate management projects and to improve community engagement on this issue (see for example Bardsley and Edwards-Jones 2007). The number and extent of impact of invasive exotic species is so widespread that they will be very difficult to reduce in density without a biological control and /or a high commercial or local value placed on the species exploitation. By understanding how people value the invasive species, and looking for opportunities to expand upon those values or create new values, either by supporting the commercial exploitation or provided government incentives to improve controls, opportunities to over-exploit the local resource could be facilitated.
Actions
Undertake social research to discuss the roles and impacts of invasive exotic species Compare the perceived risks and opportunities associated with invasive exotic species with scientific information on the same species Identify gaps in understanding as well as clear challenges as understood by all stakeholders to guide management
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Outcomes
Fundamental improvement in knowledge of the roles and impacts of invasive exotic species Synthesis of local and scientific knowledge on the roles and risks of invasive species Gap and overlap analyses to guide planning and management.
Project 2 : (Over)exploit what you have got: the hunting, harvesting and commercialisation of invasive species
Many invasive exotic species are so widely established that it is difficult to perceive that natural systems will be free of the competitive and predating pressures of invasive species in the near future. While biological controls offer some hope, and have been successful elsewhere, the example species detailed above, Camels and Buffel Grass, are examples of species that need to be exploited by the NRM process.
Actions
Investigate opportunities to exploit invasive exotic species for local and NRM values, as well as the potential for local harvesting and commercialisation. Review current and previous attempts at commercialisation of camel harvesting to learn from examples of successes and failures. Support initiatives to exploit invasive species.
Outcomes
Improve understanding of the role of invasive exotic species in relation to regional and external socio-economic and NRM systems. Develop opportunities for local communities to gain value from species currently considered largely as having negative impacts.
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7. Land Management and Desertification 7.1 Section Summary
Land Management - Grazing Desertification
Vulnerability Medium Medium
Climate Change Impacts Increased variability in pasture Increased wind erosion and growth, reduced palatability, and dust generation reduced rainfall could lower Increased mobility of sand carrying capacity dunes Water for livestock may become Loss of run-on and scarcer if groundwater reduced groundwater-dependent vegetation, leading to increased soil erosion
Adaptation Options More accurate tracking of Reduce or remove non-climatic pasture & appropriate de- pressures (grazing, fire, stocking development) on sensitive Shift to more conservative systems (e.g. sand dunes, clay stocking rates to minimise risk pans) Phasing out of grazing during Design community settlements extended periods of low rainfall to minimise impacts from dust storms and dune encroachment
Suggested Example Formalise and monitor pastoral Determine, monitor and assess Projects licences, with agreed limits to key slow variables of stocking densities based on desertification processes to rangeland condition determine long term drivers of change
7.2 Land Management Climate Change Impacts The diverse forms of land tenure in the AW NRM region make land management in response to climate change a challenge. The region consists of formally recognised Aboriginal Lands, Conservation and National Parks, Wildlife Reserves and Wilderness Areas, with very little individually privately owned land (AW NRM Board 2010). The impact of climate change on agriculture, which primarily consists of extensive cattle grazing in the AW NRM region, could be high, as overall decreases in rainfall volume and increases in rainfall variability are predicted to lead to reduced and fragmented vegetation growth, with subsequent reductions in rangeland stock carrying capacities (Table 15).
Grazing and pastoralism have been the predominant agricultural land use in the AW NRM region since European settlement. While grazing in the Yalata and Nullarbor plain regions in the South ceased in the 1950s, grazing continues in some parts of the Northeast in particular (Image 28). There are some concerns already in relation to the impact of a cattle grazing in eastern APY Lands and the associated processes of regulation of cattle numbers (AW NRM Board 2010).
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Table 15. Vulnerability of pastoralism in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region to climate change
Exposure Sensitivity Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability
Medium-High Medium-High Medium- Significant Medium High
Only a limited area is Non-linear Increased tracking of grazed by cattle, but response of pasture growth and total grazing pressure livestock carrying de-stocking practises including invasive capacity to more give some flexibility in herbivores such as variable rainfall livestock and invasive camels, is high herbivore Pasture growth relies Woody plants management directly on reliability and compete directly amount of rainfall with pasture for Shift to more Increase in less water and conservative stocking palatable species and nutrients, reducing rates to reflect woody plants fodder available to reduced pasture Highly dependent on stock productivity and groundwater for stock variability watering points No cost-effective alternatives Potential for perennial available to provide fodder species to access to water buffer against seasonal variability Rangeland vegetation is Potential to utilise shown to respond wild feral animals to well to reduced supplement domestic grazing density animal production.
Image 28. Cattle sheltering around stockyards on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands (Photo: D Bardsley)
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During the extended dry period on the APY Lands some communities noticed an increase in wind erosion/ dust storms, some of which were associated with the impacts of camels as mentioned above:
“There was a lot of dust at times when it was very dry, but the people just go into their houses. We have houses now so it is not a problem” (Kanpi-Nyapari 22/3/2011).
“There are no cattle here – Amata had a successful business with grass fed beef, and further east they have cattle as well. There were no big dust storms here, just little ones” (Kalka-Pipalyatjara 23/3/2011).
“When it was dry there were only small dust storms here, maybe because we have lots of vegetation. Some places were very dry before but now it is good” (Watarru 24/3/2011).
The increasing variability in rainfall predicted as a result of climate change will impact upon the amount of fodder and plant material available to livestock. While native pastures are relatively well- adapted to variable and infrequent rainfall (see Biodiversity Conservation section), livestock depend on regular access to feed, so as pasture growth becomes more erratic reduced livestock condition and more losses could be expected without appropriate de-stocking (Stafford Smith et al. 2007). Livestock carrying capacity in semi-arid rangelands exhibits a non-linear response to rainfall, where small changes in rainfall timing or intensity can lead to large changes in livestock carrying capacity (Crimp et al. 2010). In low rainfall periods, grazing exacerbates drought-induced productivity declines of native pasture (Boer & Stafford Smith 2003), acting as a positive feedback loop. Livestock carrying capacity can “overshoot” in these scenarios, leading to significant degradation of vegetation, disruption of soil systems and stock losses unless grazing pressures are reduced (see Adaptation Responses). Furthermore, as mentioned previously in relation to flooding, if long dry periods that lead to de-vegetation are followed by periods of intensive rainfall events, flash-flooding and water erosion will become more of a problem, redirecting rivers, and filling and damaging rockpools.
Climate change is also likely to affect the species composition of rangeland pastures. A gradual decrease in rainfall is predicted to lead to a shift towards more xerophytic species, which are adapted to drier conditions, and are potentially less palatable and digestible and thus less desirable for grazing (Crimp et al. 2010). In addition, the predicted invasion of drier-adapted exotic woody species in the region as a result of declining rainfall and elevated CO2 levels may reduce the productivity of grazing operations due to competition between woody weeds and herbaceous pastures (Crimp et al. 2010; Kriticos et al. 2010). Buffel grass, for example, may become more of a problem as it is a rapid coloniser of disturbed landscapes (see Invasive Species section).
Water availability is also likely to be affected by climate change (see Water section), with stock watering points potentially at risk of supply disruption if groundwater regimes change. While the sustainability of current extraction rates is questionable (AW NRM Board 2010), climate change is likely to exacerbate this problem by simultaneously reducing the flows necessary to replenish groundwater sources, and by increasing the demand for water as stock experience increasing heat stress. The lack of alternative options for stock water provision makes this a critical challenge in adapting grazing practises to climate change.
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7.3 Land Management Adaptation Response The practise of de-stocking when pasture growth declines is an already established management option that removes stock from grazing lands before conditions in either pasture or stock health reach critical thresholds (Morton and Barton 2002; Stafford Smith et al. 2007). Successful adaptation to climate change will require a continuation of this trend, with a shift to more opportunistic grazing and tracking of pasture growth, and the use of conservative stocking rates from year to year to reduce the risk of large-scale stock losses (Crimp et al. 2010). As climate variability increases, a focus on yield reliability, rather than maximum productivity during the best years, could become more of a priority for producers and researchers. A focus on yield diversity by incorporating wild feral camels, donkeys or goats into pastoral management practises would also provide a buffer against domestic stock losses in bad seasons.
The establishment of pastoral development licences on the APY lands to regulate pastoral activities and ensure sustainable management (APY 2009) is a positive step towards adaptive land management in a changing climate. However, the recommended practise of destocking as an adaptive response to climate change often depends more on markets and prices for livestock, and often does not incorporate other risks, such as fuel prices or road access, which would severely reduce the ability to rapidly destock and transport livestock to markets in adverse conditions. The destocking must also involve invasive herbivores such as camels, donkeys, horses and goats, which can have particular negative impacts, such as on claypans between dunes (see Invasive Species section).
Changing dryland pasture vegetation is another adaptation strategy available in response to climate change. There are some promising trials of perennial woody forage species that are able to provide feed at a time in the year when annual fodder availability is low, and buffer against seasonal variability in rainfall (Monjardino et al. 2010). However, these systems are currently being trialled in higher rainfall areas (300-650mm), so their potential to contribute to pastoral land in the semi-arid environment of the AW NRM region remains uncertain at present.
More research and trials are required to determine whether there are similar species suitable to rangeland conditions, which are useful for agricultural and other economic activities while also tolerating projected future climate change.
Crimp et al. (2010) suggest that even with the adaptive measures outlined above, current levels of livestock productivity are unlikely to be maintained in the AW NRM region, a conclusion supported by a recent CSIRO publication on the impacts of climate change on invasive species (Kriticos et al. 2010). In extreme cases, grazing may have to be phased out altogether if rainfall patterns become too erratic. As Pearce et al. (2010) note, while the practise of "shutting the gate" and temporarily walking away from pastoral properties when there is not enough water already occurs, this practice may become permanent as climate change progresses. These comments raise the broader potential of fundamental shifts in land use, particularly if desertification eventuates in semi-arid areas of the AW NRM region.
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7.4 Desertification Climate Change Impacts
Desertification is defined in the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) as ‘land degradation in the arid, semi-arid and dry subhumid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities’ (UN 1994, p4). Until recently, inappropriate local or regional land management was blamed as the primary cause of desertification, with resulting climate change seen to be a consequence, rather than a cause of desertification processes (Verstraete et al. 2008). Archer and Tadross (2009) describe the process as a feedback mechanism between vegetation and climate - as vegetation is removed through grazing or clearing, the albedo of the land surface increases. The feedback mechanisms in turn lead to a reduction in localised rainfall, which leads to further reductions in vegetation, exacerbating the process (Archer and Tadross 2009). Other localised feedback mechanisms, such as a positive feedback between dust and precipitation, have been observed (Giannini et al. 2008). However a recent study in the sub-Saharan region has shown that global changes in ocean surface temperatures as a result of climate change are more likely to have caused land degradation in that region compared with regional or local land use changes (Giannini et al. 2008). This finding, along with the experienced direct impacts of extended droughts on rangeland systems at different times in West Asia, the USA and most recently in Australia, suggest that climate change will have both direct and indirect effects on the likelihood of desertification in semi-arid areas around the globe.
The shift from seeing desertification as primarily a result of local or regional changes in land use (internal processes), to seeing it as largely a result of global climate change (external processes), has significant impacts for land management. Internal processes imply that changes in land management, such as reducing stocking rates and controlling invasive herbivores, will address the problem, whereas external processes imply that adaptation to withstand increasingly dry conditions and some land degradation would be the only option to minimise the impacts of desertification (Herrmann and Hutchinson 2005). Several reviews of the links between climate change and desertification have noted that both internal and external processes play a role (Herrmann and Hutchinson 2005; Reynolds et al. 2007; Sivakumar 2007; Verstraete et al. 2008). Hence it is likely that land management will need new adaptive measures to deal with the impacts of external climate change in the rangelands as thresholds of ecological conditions are passed, with additional ongoing improvements aiming to minimise secondary degradation of important areas. It is worth examining the concept of desertification in a bit more depth because it could be a fundamental process associated with declining or more irregular rainfall in the AW NRM region.
Conceptions of Desertification Processes
The theoretical and conceptual shifts in desertification research have helped to inform and refine the scope and objectives of land management in rangelands, particularly in relation to climate change. As Reynolds et al. (2007, 847) discuss, "Nonlinear processes need to be recognized: Dryland systems are not in equilibrium, have multiple thresholds, and thus often exhibit multiple ecological and social states." Hermann and Hutchinson (2005) discuss the conceptual shifts from thinking about deserts as equilibrium systems (i.e. using the succession/climax model developed for higher rainfall forest areas), to thinking of them as non-equilibrium systems (opportunism/threshold model), and finally, as a combination of both equilibrium and non-equilibrium process (state and transition model), in which desert systems may pass thresholds due to disturbance (transition), leading to an irreversible reconfiguration of the system, either on short or long time scales, into a diverse array of possible new equilibria or “phases” (including highly degraded states) (see also Biodiversity Conservation section).
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While the state and transition model may more accurately reflect the reality of change and evolution in dryland systems, the challenge for management using this conceptual model lies in defining the numerous states and transitions for a particular system, depending on the context and objectives of management (Herrmann and Hutchinson 2005). In the context of climate change, the difficulty lies in distinguishing between thresholds that are able to be feasibly contained by current management activities, and those that will inevitably be breached, requiring an adaptive response to the subsequent system transition. In addition, predicting the extent and direction of transition is crucial in formulating effective adaptation strategies (Bardsley and Hugo 2010). While the following sections highlight some of the many transitions that can be expected as a result of climate change, data on trends and current conditions are sparse, reflecting a broader lack of consistent and effective monitoring and assessment of semi-arid rangeland conditions (Vogt et al. 2011).
More research and ongoing monitoring is needed to assess current combined impacts of resource exploitation and invasive species on land condition, which would enable further research to better predict the extent and nature of climate change on desertification in the AW NRM region.
Wind Erosion and Dust Generation
While there has recently been a network established to monitor dust levels and wind erosion in arid Australia, including in the AW NRM region (McTainsh et al. 2009), historical data on the AW NRM lands is scarce (DustWatch Project 2009). Wind erosion can play a more important role in shaping landscapes than water erosion in semi-arid lands (Ravi et al. 2010). Furthermore, an increase in aridity associated with climate change could increase the importance of abiotic factors (such as wind and water erosion) compared with biotic factors (such as vegetation growth) in shaping semi- arid ecosystems (Ravi et al. 2010). Dust issues have already been a particular problem in the grazed areas in the Northeast of the APY lands, and this is likely to worsen under climate change. In a study of the risks of erosion on the Nullarbor Plains, Gillieson et al. (1996) conclude that while the risks of water erosion are minimal, wind erosion is seasonally active, and its extent depends upon the level of vegetation cover. Predicted decreases in vegetation cover as a result of reduced rainfall and increased grazing pressure are likely to significantly increase wind erosion rates, in a landscape that has remained relatively stable for many thousands of years (2-5 mm of soil erosion every 1000 years) (Gillieson et al. 1996). In a study in similar African environments, Sivakumar (2007) notes that the frequency of episodic soil transport by wind is likely to increase as a result of climate change, citing losses in Niger of 46 tonnes/ha of soil in only four windstorms in one year.
Increasing dust levels are a common indicator of land degradation, as decreasing vegetation leads to soils becoming more easily eroded by wind. This has consequences not only for the region, but potentially globally as well, as dust is a major component of tropospheric aerosols, which affect global climate, air quality and hydrological-biogeochemical cycles (Ravi et al. 2010). The increase in rainfall variability predicted in the AW NRM region is likely to increase dust generation, as experienced recently in western NSW and southern Queensland (ABC News 2009). Less regular rainfall leads to less plant growth after rains, further increasing the likelihood of wind and water erosion of bare soil (Elmore et al. 2008). In addition, the predicted increase in storm intensity is also likely to increase dust generation, as heavy rain can generate significant riparian erosion (see Water section), leading to increases in the amount of loose, easily erodible soil (Laity 2003; Elmore et al. 2008). Decreases in groundwater recharge in the South of the AW NRM region (see Water section) may lead to a rapid reduction in groundwater dependent vegetation, especially larger trees such as Allocasuarina spp. and Eucalyptus spp.. This effect on vegetation could significantly increase localised dust generation, particularly when associated with impacts by cattle or camels, because
103 103 the soil would no longer be stabilised by groundwater-dependent plants (Laity 2003; Elmore et al. 2008). Woody shrub encroachment of grasslands in the region may also likely to increase dust generation, as shrubs can promote increased wind-erosion in the inter-shrub spaces compared with native grasslands in semi-arid rangelands (Ravi et al. 2010).
Sand Dunes
Greater predicted rainfall variability within the AW NRM region is likely to have significant impacts on sand dune formation and stabilisation, particularly in the Great Victoria Desert. More variable rainfall could increase the sensitivity of dune systems to changes in vegetation cover, resulting in stronger threshold tendencies, whereby a small reduction in vegetation cover can lead to a large increase in dune destabilisation and remobilisation, especially along dune crests (Nield and Baas 2008). In addition, an increase in storm and wind intensities will diminish the ability of vegetation to re-colonise mobile dunes due to increased erosion and harsher climatic conditions (Nield and Baas 2008). Active sand dunes, such as the Yalata dune system in the Southeast of the AW NRM region, are likely to become even more mobile due to increasing wind intensities. Hence the priority for adaptation is to prohibit inappropriate forms of development, fire or grazing management which reduce vegetation cover in the first instance, as once vegetation is lost, dune systems are unlikely to return to a previous stable state under a changing climate (Table 16).
Table 16. Vulnerability to desertification due to climate change in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region
Exposure Sensitivity Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability
Medium-High Medium Medium Medium Medium
Large areas are Secondary feedback Management of grazing already on the mechanisms likely to and fire on sensitive margins of dry, enhance climate-driven vegetation (Nullarbor aeolian-driven processes Plain, dune systems) to systems reduce erosion risks Non-linear effects of wind likely to be limited due to Land degradation erosion as storm large areas involved processes directly intensities increase impacted by climate Design of communities to change, and Increasing sensitivity of mitigate the impacts of indirectly through dune systems to changes dust storm internal feedback in vegetation mechanisms Controlling total grazing Desertification pressures pressure will not only will be limited initially to Within timeframe of areas with associated involve reduced cattle this report (i.e. to grazing pressures and/or impacts, but also the 2030), exposure to highly sensitive control of large feral desertification ecosystems (e.g. herbivores such as processes likely to groundwater-dependant camels and donkeys, vegetation) be limited. which is difficult over such large areas.
As indicated in the Biodiversity Conservation section, if new fire regimes involve significantly larger and hotter fires, large areas of vegetation could be depleted at a time, increasing the erosion risk as
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large areas of soil may become significantly more mobile. Similarly, if invasive species such as rabbits or horses destabilise large sections of the dune systems, the dunes can become far more mobile. While the dynamics of such processes are relatively well understood, the physical outcome of these processes is difficult to determine, particularly when the range of predicted rainfall change is so wide. In general, drier and more variable climatic conditions, and associated low vegetative growth rates, tend to produce a mix of dune types with high sensitivity to disturbances (Nield and Baas 2008). Where such dune systems are reliant on groundwater-dependent vegetation to stabilise them, a change in the groundwater balance can rapidly lead to loss of vegetation and widespread activation of the dunes, leading to a system dominated by aeolian erosion and transportation (Laity 2003). In such circumstances, where the soil medium is highly mobile, vegetation is much less likely to be able to effectively influence sand dune stabilisation. Such dynamics typify the extreme non-linearity and non-equilibrium behaviours in all rangelands (Reynolds et al. 2007), further discussed in the Biodiversity Conservation section.
7.5 Desertification Adaptation Response
As mentioned above, reducing pressures (such as inappropriate fire regimes and grazing activities) on vegetation in sensitive areas such as dunes or clay pans will be critical if land systems are to remain relatively stable. However, the ability to effectively manage such processes over such a large area remains a challenge, particularly when knowledge of how current management is affecting land condition is so limited. Without continued protection, dune systems are likely to change to more mobile landscapes dominated by wind erosion, as vegetation will be unable to re- colonise under harsher and more variable climatic conditions. Similarly, clay pans between dunes could become increasingly impermeable and saline if affected regularly by cattle or camel pugging and poaching.
The scale of climate change-induced desertification, coupled with self-reinforcing ecosystem feedbacks that perpetuate desertification processes, means that adaptive management, even on a landscape scale, is likely to have little effect in halting these processes. A flexible approach that recognises variability, uncertainty and change is required (Cribb and Stafford Smith 2010), to determine which areas and resources are worth preserving, and which areas must be allowed to take their course as the landscape adjusts to an altered climate. If increasing dust storms, encroachment of sand dunes, and loss of land productivity are experienced, some Anangu communities within the region, particularly in the South and Northeast, will increasingly need to take into account the changed conditions resulting from desertification.
7.6 Suggested Example Land Management and Desertification Projects
Project 1 : Incorporate Climate Change into Stock Management Practises
Livestock grazing in the AW NRM region will have to adapt to increasingly variable conditions, which means that stock management will need to closely respond to rangeland condition to avoid degradation. Formalisation of monitoring and regulation of pastoral licences, combined with agreed limits to stocking densities based on seasonal forecasts and de-stocking trigger points, could ensure that tracking of pasture productivity is managed sustainably. If conditions consistently reach de- stocking trigger points, decisions would need to be made about removing livestock from affected areas altogether.
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Actions
Work closely with stakeholders to establish formal pastoral licences which are re-enforced by monitoring of stock numbers and penalties for non-compliance. Set agreed limits to stocking densities based on seasonal climate forecasts, and establish mandatory de-stocking trigger points if conditions worsen over the season.
Outcomes
Pastoral licences which regulate the grazing of livestock based on predicted climatic conditions. Improved long-term benefits for pasture productivity and resilience if appropriate stock densities and de-stocking practises are adhered to, compared with potential long-term degradation if stock are not managed to reflect new levels of climate variability.
Project 2 : Determine, monitor and assess key slow variables and thresholds of desertification processes to determine long term drivers of change
High variability in short-term human and environmental processes mask longer term, “slow” variables which are crucial to understanding change in dryland systems. For example, when looking for indicators of rangeland condition, a slow variable could be soil fertility, compared with the fast variable of available plant biomass that would vary rapidly with available moisture (Reynolds et al. 2007). By identifying and monitoring the slow variables, rather than focussing on assessments that measure day-to-day or seasonal variability, a better understanding of fundamental landscape processes could be gained, allowing predictions of change and guiding long-term adaptation options. Similarly by tracking the thresholds of these slow variables (which may themselves change over time), systems can be managed in a timely manner before thresholds are reached, saving huge costs associated with post-hoc remediation. Given the complexity and uncertainty in determining thresholds, the precautionary principle should be applied when making management decisions about rangelands intervention. While outside the scope of NRM, socio-economic slow variables and thresholds can be just as important as biophysical properties, and both interact strongly in determining overall outcomes for rangeland condition.
Actions
Identify and monitor a limited set of biophysical slow variables (e.g. soil fertility, perennial shrub encroachment) and corresponding thresholds to develop an integrated description of landscape health, which would help to guide adaptation to change in a proactive and timely manner. Key variables and thresholds may differ for different regions and subregions of the AW NRM.
Outcomes
A more integrated understanding of coupled human-environment dynamics, with a greater ability to predict impacts and respond to trends in condition, rather than just variability. A formalised and consistent framework for assessing landscape health and for observing change over time. Limit costs associated with trying to fix a system after thresholds have been breached.
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8. Coastal Management 8.1 Section Summary
Coasts
Vulnerability Low-Medium
Climate Change Impacts Rising sea level may erode cliffs and beaches at faster rates. Storm surges will significantly increase Sensitive coastal ecosystems, such as salt marshes, may not be able to retreat fast enough to keep pace with rising sea levels.
Adaptation Options Reduce anthropogenic pressures (off-road vehicles, fishing) on sensitive cliffs areas Reduce grazing pressures on coastal sand dunes Designate and protect inland areas for salt-marsh ecosystems to retreat.
Suggested Example Projects Monitor dune movement and accretion/erosion, and cliff retreat/collapse, to identify key areas of conservation importance Establish retreat zones for developments and natural systems such as dunes and salt-marshes
8.2 Climate Change Impacts
Globally, sea-level rise has occurred at an average rate of 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr (90% confidence interval) from 1993-2003 (ACE CRC 2008b). Recent sea-level monitoring data from the National Tidal Centre, Bureau of Meteorology suggests that the rate of change of sea-level rise in the AW NRM region in 2008-09 was +3.9 mm/year (National Tidal Centre 2009). Globally, sea-level rise has been driven primarily by thermal expansion of the oceans and glacier/ice cap melt, however the contributions of melting ice from areas such as Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are likely to become increasingly important in the coming decades (ACE CRC 2008b). Thus, the annual average rate of sea-level rise is likely to increase as global warming intensifies (Steffen 2009). In fact, if average global temperatures above 2.3-3.9°C are maintained over the next few centuries to millennia, total melting of the land ice of Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely, leading to an overall sea-level rise of 13 metres, albeit over centuries (ACE CRC 2008b).
In the timeframe of this report (i.e. to 2030), there are still uncertainties about how fast sea-level rise will occur, largely due to the uncertainties in understanding ice-sheet dynamics (Department of Climate Change 2009). The IPCC's 2100 predictions suggest that the range of predicted sea-level rise by 2030 is between 47 mm (5-percentile minima) and 149 mm (95-percentile maxima) depending on the emissions scenario, with a range between 185 mm and 819 mm of sea-level rise by 2100 (Hunter 2010). The most recent IPCC projections (AR4 - 2007) of sea-level rise range from 0.18 to 0.79 m by 2100, with the upper limit incorporating a 0.2m rise in an attempt to include the uncertainty of Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet melting (Steffen 2009). Recent scientific observations and modelling suggest that sea-level rise is tracking at the upper end of the IPCC's 2007 predictions (Hunter 2010), and that rapid ice-melt at the poles and on major ice-sheets could
107 107 lead to significant increases in sea level (Kerr 2006; Nicholls & Cazenave 2010). Projections of sea-level rise presented to the 2009 Copenhagen Congress ranged from 0.75 to 1.9 metres by 2100 (relative to 1990), with 1.1–1.2 metres the mid-range of the projection (Department of Climate Change 2009), which suggests significantly higher sea-levels than the IPCC's earlier predictions can be expected for the AW NRM regional coastline.
In light of the new information about rates of sea level rise, SA Coastal Board planning guidelines for coastal development that allow for 1 m sea-level rise by 2100 (Coast Protection Board of SA 1992) may no longer represent a Precautionary approach to risk management, but instead would reflect a response to only the most recent mid-range projections. Moreover, it is important to note that the uncertainties relating to future sea-level rise are largely one-sided, and as a result, increasing rates of sea-level rise are much more likely than decreasing rates of sea-level rise (ACE CRC 2008a). Recent kinematic modelling of ice-sheet dynamics concluded that a range of 0.8-2.0 m of sea-level rise by 2100 was physically possible, with values around 0.8 m being more plausible. However, there were still large uncertainties in these predictions (Pfeffer et al. 2008). There is at present no scientific consensus on the upper limits of sea-level rise projections by 2100, given the uncertainty of ice melt processes and dynamics, which is to say that it is possible that sea-level rise may be even greater than recent predictions (Australian Government 2009; Department of Climate Change 2009). It could be argued, therefore, that a future Precautionary approach to sea-level rise risk, based on the most recent scientific evidence and significant uncertainties in predicting ice- sheet dynamics, would need to assume somewhere between 1.5-2.0m of sea-level rise by 2100 for the region and the State.
While the impacts of mean sea level changes are significant, they may not be as destructive as the impacts of extreme sea level events such as storm surges, which are exacerbated by mean sea- level rise (CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology 2007). A 2005 study of Port Adelaide-Enfield seawater and stormwater flooding risk by Tonkin Consulting concluded that the upper-end of the IPCC AR3 (2001) sea-level rise projections (0.88m) would translate to a 1 in 100 year sea defence threshold level (incorporating sea-level rise, tidal amplification, storm surge, wave effects, further land subsidence and 300 freeboard) of around 4.1 m, representing a much greater impact on infrastructure, communities and biodiversity than sea-level rise alone (Jacobi and Syme 2005). The impacts of storm surges may be particularly important for the AW NRM region (Table 17), because the coast is dominated by high wind- and wave-energy environments, with the majority of the coastline featuring 70-90m limestone cliffs, known as the Bunda cliffs, which make up part of the Great Australian Bight (AW NRM Board 2010). While these cliffs are known to periodically collapse under wave attack, the current rate of cliff erosion is unknown (Caton et al. 2008), and it is unknown whether cliff erosion will be significantly different under climate change conditions. Observed trends in wave climate along the southern half of Australia over the past 20 years indicate an increase in large wave events as a result of climate change (Hemer et al. 2008). Even assuming a sea-level rise of 0.5 m by 2100, the AW NRM southern coastline is predicted to receive many more extreme storm surge events by 2100 (ACE CRC 2008b, Department of Climate Change 2009). The continuation of this trend as climate change progresses may increase wave erosion of the cliffs, although the predicted extent of this erosion has not been quantified (Department of Climate Change 2009). However, such erosion would impact upon tourist viewing and beach access infrastructure along the coastline (Table 17).
Sandy beach environments such as the Merdayerrah Sandpatch on the SA-WA border and the mobile Yalata dune system in the East of the AW NRM region are likely to experience increasing aeolian erosion and seawater inundation from a combination of drying that leads to less vegetation cover, more frequent and extreme storm events, and sea-level rise (Caton et al. 2008). These
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impacts would lead to increased activation/mobility of dune systems, and further reduce the ability of vegetation to stabilise dunes (see Land Management section). While the beaches of the AW NRM coastline are classified as ‘accreting’ (growing) at present (Hemer et al. 2008), a key management issue is whether these trends will continue under climate change, or pass thresholds and rapidly change to receding beaches as sea-levels rise (Department of Climate Change 2009). There are also significant uncertainties in the impacts of climate change on onshore wave action and longshore transport of coastal sediments, which must be understood before the risk of coastal erosion can be determined (Hemer et al. 2008; Department of Climate Change 2009).
Low-lying salt-marsh environments near the Yalata dune system are likely to be impacted by increasing sea-levels (AW NRM Plan 2010). In general, wetland and salt-marsh systems are sensitive to sea-level changes, sediment loads and the salinity of the water. While these systems can, in their natural state, keep pace with changing sea-level rise with continuing sedimentation and landward migration, the rate at which sea-level may rise could exceed threshold levels leading to significant negative impacts on ecosystem health and productivity (Fotheringham 1994). The coastal marshes are vital ecosystems for the health of estuarine and marine systems, and so any negative impact on these systems will have broader environmental repercussions. At present it is unknown whether the salt-marshes can withstand the projected rate of sea-level rise, by migrating landward, without loss of key functions and extent of habitat. On a positive note, the relatively uninhabited nature of the coastal area means the salt-marshes and dune systems are unlikely to be subject to the "coastal squeeze" phenomenon of more developed areas, whereby landward migration of tidal/estuarine ecosystems is restricted by roads and development, leading to reduced areas of habitat (Department of Climate Change 2009).
Table 17. Vulnerability of coasts in the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management region to climate change
Exposure Sensitivity Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability
Low Medium Low- Medium Low-Medium Medium
Few systems are Tidal, estuarine & dune If rate of sea-level significantly altered coastal systems highly rise is slow enough, by human activity dependent on sea-level, salt marshes may be Few low lying areas tidal range, and flooding able to adapt by along the AW NRM regime landward migration coast Unknown sensitivity of No permanent More frequent and Bunda cliffs to increased structures in coastal extreme storms in sea-level and wave action zone means association with Likely to increase erosion communities can sea-level rise may rates of beach and dune migrate more easily increase erosion of systems than more heavily Bunda cliffs, and Fast rises in sea level developed areas erode beaches. likely to prevent landward Removal of grazing migration of salt marshes pressures on dunes and dunes may significantly increase resilience of dune ecosystems.
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8.3 Adaptation response
Coastal adaptation responses will depend on the rate at which sea-levels rise, and whether this will exceed the rate at which ecosystems can adapt to change. As Church et al. (2008) note, mean sea-level has stayed relatively constant for the past 7000 years, and the recent anthropogenic changes may exceed thresholds for sensitive systems, such as coastal dunes or salt-marshes. In addition to the rate of mean sea-level rise, more frequent and intense storms and coastal erosion will impact negatively upon many coastal systems that have developed equilibria with prevailing conditions.
While in general there will be little opportunity to engineer responses to coastal risk along much of the remote AW regional coastline, key assets would need to be monitored for rates of erosion and appropriate interventions undertaken both to strengthen infrastructure and protect important systems. Apart from the relatively rare areas containing built infrastructure, however, ecosystems should be disturbed as little as possible so that the natural in-built resilience and adaptive responses to change are able to function optimally. For beach retention, for example, dune systems must remain accumulative, and should be disturbed as little as possible. Encouragingly, Caton et al.’s (2008) findings of net increases in vegetation in the Wahgunyah and Yalata Dunes along the AW coastline from 1979-2004 , suggest that the gradual reduction in stock grazing pressures from the 1950s has led to an increase in vegetative stabilisation of the dunes. Beaches, dunes and cliffs may all need to be monitored to ensure human impacts do not exceed thresholds beyond which erosion, blowouts or collapse would occur. Especially, as Caton et al. (2008) note, reduced rainfall is likely to have a significant, negative impact on the ability of vegetation to stabilise dunes.
If changes in wave action and longshore sediment transport occur, it is possible that the some beaches along the AW NRM coastline will begin to recede within a relatively short period of time, however the extent and likelihood of this occurring is presently unknown. There could be issues that counter-balance the increased rates of erosion, such as increasing rates of deposition of sediment as nearby cliffs are eroded more quickly. Within inter-tidal systems, mangroves and salt- marsh should be allowed to migrate inland wherever possible, which may be a much easier task in the AW NRM region due to the low levels of development along the coast compared with other parts of South Australia. The Bunda cliffs will need to be protected from disturbance due to human activities as much as possible to minimise the chance of cliff erosion and collapse. In general however, the sensitivity of these systems to climate change is poorly understood at present. Much more research is needed to quantify the likely impacts of climate change, both to understand how these systems will be affected, and to determine the extent of adaptation measures required to ensure effective coastal management in a changing climate.
8.4 Suggested Example Coastal Projects
Project 1 : Monitor Dune Movement and Cliff Retreat
The outcomes of climate change impacts due to sea level rise on coastal sections of the AW NRM region remain uncertain at present, both due to a lack of historical data and uncertainty in coastal processes and the local responses to sea level rise and wave action. Continuing monitoring of dune movement and erosion, and cliff retreat/collapse by a combination of local surveys and aerial photography would help to determine trends in erosion/deposition processes as climate change
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progresses. This would also help in identifying areas of conservation importance, or areas which are vulnerable and unstable.
Actions Establish a regular on-ground and aerial survey of the Bunda Cliffs and dune systems along the AW NRM coastline to determine rates of retreat or erosion/deposition.
Outcomes Data on rates of cliff retreat and dune erosion/deposition Identification of vulnerable areas or areas of high conservation priority Development of more accurate models of coastal processes, with the ability to predict likely outcomes of sea level rise.
Project 2 : Establish retreat zones for coastal retreat
While development does not constrain landward migration of salt-marsh ecosystems along the AW NRM coastline as much as in other parts of the State, the need for future coastal retreat in-land needs to be considered. Given the range of sea level rise predictions, it is important to develop maps of areas of likely coastal inundation, in order to protect land from future development and, for example, to allow salt-marsh ecosystems to migrate inland as sea levels rise. Such maps would also help to identify the risk to any built infrastructure, and allow for a planned retreat policy to be implemented for any development that is at high risk of inundation.
Actions
Develop or access a digital elevation model (DEM) to assess the impacts of a range of possible sea level rise on the AW NRM coastline. From this model, designate conservation areas to allow for landward migration of developments and salt-marsh ecosystems. Adopt a planned retreat policy for any established development or other infrastructure at high risk of inundation as sea levels rise.
Outcomes
Land set aside to act as a buffer for migration of sensitive coastal ecosystems as sea levels rise. Identification of high risk infrastructure, allowing for a planned retreat to protect vulnerable assets.
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9. Conclusion: Where to from here?
The condition of and threats to natural resources in the AW region vary considerably spatially and from system to system. This review acknowledges that some very important issues are emerging for management of the AW NRM region irrespective of future climate change, especially for management of surface water, invasive species and land (AW NRM Board 2010). Climate change will exacerbate a number of these emerging challenges, as well as lead to new trends and environmental hazards within the region. Examples of current challenges are detailed in the recently produced AW NRM Plan and suggest that people, country and water are key themes that will need considerable support to ensure that NRM is made sustainable into the future. As Tietjen and Jeltsch (2007, 426) state, “climate change is likely to exacerbate any difficulties arising in the management of semi-arid and arid areas.” There have been some important limitations to this review, which need to be acknowledged. Much detailed analysis was beyond the scope of this review and while many issues or contexts raise the levels of complexity involved with effective policy and planning for adaptation at different times, more in-depth scientific and socio-economic analytical research will be required. For example, little attempt has been made within the vulnerability assessments to examine the cumulative and potentially very complex effects of wide-scale economic or socio-political change associated with climate change. For this report to continue to evolve as living document, communication will be essential to both allow access to information, and for people to contribute their own thoughts to a growing dialogue about NRM and climate change in the region (Pahl-Wostl and Hare 2004). It is easy enough to provide recommendations and suggest projects to respond to climate change threats, but to have any real effect, people and communities must begin to own the issue, and to make decisions about the best ways forward themselves, in conjunction with external stakeholders. Openness and transparency will be critical to engaging people in climate change within the AW NRM region (Tiessen et al. 2007). There are relatively simple steps that could be undertaken such as creating documents or maintaining a website, which provide: information on climate change; identify issues regarding natural resource condition and hazard risk; online resources such as reports, minutes of meetings, and other documents; a forum for news, discussion and comments; and, links with other organisations and funding partners in the region.
Beyond those relatively simple steps, this report could be updated at regular intervals to develop an understanding of the changes to climate and local systems. A number of more detailed projects could stem from this baseline document, some of which are outlined above, following the approach detailed in Bardsley and Sweeney (2010). The focus needs to be on engaging local people and other stakeholders, so that they take on the challenge of understanding what climate change will mean for the region and begin the dialogue on how it should be managed.
Communication is essential for this dialogue to happen between Anangu, other local people, governing organisations, researchers and other interested individuals. It is important to note that not all forms of communication have equal outcomes. Some forms of communication are one-way, while other forms promote an exchange of ideas and are more inclusive in determining who has a voice and who is heard. The differences between the High Frequency (HF) radio network established on the APY lands in the 1970s, and the gradual shift to telephone, embody some of these fundamental differences in communication:
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“Anangu culture is an oral culture. HF radio broadcasting suits an oral culture. The biggest thing about the HF radio was that it was public. There were not misunderstandings. Information was not kept privately. It was disseminated out there-whether it was public or private information ...The telephone stopped that totally ... everyone became a lot more private and held on to information usually for reasons of power. Radio is democratic; the telephone and fax are autocratic. People could gain power by holding information back, information that was only learnt if you were holding the telephone receiver” (PY Media 10-11, 2006).
The recent proposal for satellite broadband by the NBN Co in remote indigenous regions (NBN Co 2011) may allow access to a potentially more open and inclusive form of communication compared with the private telephone, however significant access barriers such as upfront and maintenance costs remain. Current access to the internet in communities in the APY lands is poor:
“Currently Anangu community members have access to computers only in public offices or as school children. Anangu use community offices to access limited internet services, mainly internet banking. Other internet access is limited to the education facilities and/or availability in the work place for those in employment and able to access the relevant computers” (PY Media 2011).
A joint communication strategy incorporating a web-based NRM portal available at each community, and a HF or UHF radio network (for both NRM and other uses) would allow an open and ongoing dialogue about climate change in relation to NRM to develop that could be integrated with NRM education programs. Examples of successful web-based programs that can be seen as living documents include: Ara Irititja (http://www.irititja.com/), a computer-based digital archive of Anangu culture, including photographs, films, sound recordings and documents, which allows Anangu to upload their own content to the database; and DustWatch (http://dustwatch.edu.au/), a community- based research project which monitors dust and wind erosion by combining data from individuals, monitoring equipment, meteorological records and satellite images. These programs combine both user-generated content and content developed by program leaders and administrators in creating and sharing a body of information which evolves over time.
Regardless of the specific details of communications technologies used, we argue that to be effective they need to meet the following criteria (Shockley-Zalabak 2006; Tiessen et al. 2007)
Be relatively low-cost, both to maintain and to access Be relatively easy to maintain from a technical perspective (including sourcing spare parts) Be resilient to environmental risks, such as storms & rising electricity/fuel prices Promote multiple exchanges and dialogues, rather than a one-way transfer of information from “producer” to “consumer” of knowledge Be provided as an essential service to communities in the AW NRM region, rather than on an often unaffordable “user-pays” basis.
The key to the adaptation of NRM systems to climate change is better management irrespective of the extent of climate change, and from that stand point, specific impacts can be targeted for long- term planning to adjust to a changing and more variable climate. How ‘better’ management is to be defined will be dependent on the place and context, but it should have strong elements of: A basis in knowledge integrated from scientific and local/traditional sources Targeted and flexible Lead to a general broadening of the resilience of natural resource systems
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Learning from earlier actions, as well as actions undertaken elsewhere Properly funded and where possible incorporating local training
Beyond these general requirements, there will be the need for some specific issues to be dealt with more constructively. Important thresholds of resource condition may be passed as the climate changes, and where possible these significant new issues for communities and the environment are highlighted below and in the Executive Summary. For those reasons, we utilise the same structural themes as the AW NRM plan (AW NRM Board 2010) – people, and country and water - to conclude discussion on the major areas where on-ground works, research, investment and planning could be focussed to facilitate effective adaptation to future climate change.
9.1 People
There are already concerning levels of disadvantage and social marginalisation experienced disproportionately by many people across large areas of the AW NRM region in comparison with most people in SA. There are many historical, cultural, geographic and socio-economic reasons for the social dislocation between the Anangu communities and the broader Australian community, which are beyond the scope of this review. Nevertheless, it is unavoidable to examine vital social issues if management of the environment is going to be undertaken effectively as climate changes. The disadvantages in relation to access to information, education, wealth, the broader social capital of networks that enables NRM processes and programs throughout Australia, are fundamental to dealing with the challenges of environmental risk that lie ahead (Thomas and Twyman 2005). These social issues were not the focus here (see EP NRM Board 2009 for a focussed review of this issue), and it is not our intention to pretend that we are experts on the very important issue of Aboriginal disadvantage in Australia. However, where the issues of socio-economic sustainability overlap strongly with environmental management there are some emerging roles for the AW NRM Board, which we wish to highlight, namely: responses to the vulnerability of the Anangu people to future climate change; support for and integration of traditional ecological knowledge; and the roles of training, education and employment.
Social vulnerability
People are saying that they have been scared by the impacts of extreme climate events in the APY lands – by camels during the dry, by lack of food and access to other places during the floods, and by lack of access to bushfood at different times. Several people also mentioned that they have seen the impacts of recent cyclones, flooding, earthquakes and the tsunami on television and are scared by those as well, and are struggling to put them in context. There is a sense of social vulnerability, both directly to environmental hazards and indirectly to changing livelihoods, that is much more acute than, for example, similar discussions on the sensitivity of people in the Adelaide- Mt Lofty Ranges to environmental change (Bardsley and Liddicoat 2008). In densely settled areas of SA the issues relating to discussions of climate change are more theoretical discussions of impacts on economic and ecological systems, apart perhaps from the impact of fire in the Adelaide Hills. Within the AW NRM region, the immediate social vulnerability to climate should not be overlooked, particularly for the most marginal communities and the more vulnerable individuals within those communities. For example, while the SA Greenhouse Strategy (SA Government 2011, 23) aims to create Greenhouse “friendly” indigenous communities, there is an immediate concern that climatic impacts associated with more extreme climatic events could have major impacts on human welfare in the AW NRM region. As can be seen in the quotes included in the text, and available in Appendix 2, numerous discussions in the APY Lands focussed on the impacts of
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environmental hazards and change in natural resource conditions on the sustainability of their livelihoods, and for that reason adaptation responses to climate change in the AW Region need to be embedded in a context of social justice (Thomas and Twyman 2005; EP NRM Board 2009).
Some impacts of climate change may appear to be quite subtle or peripheral but have major impacts on communities. There were big problems with access to some communities after the regular summer rains in the APY in the summer of 2010-2011. For example, truck access soon after rain is limited both for occupational health and safety reasons and reasons linked to the churning up of the roads by heavy vehicles on soft clays and sands when wet. The community of Watarru did not have a supermarket delivery for several weeks because of the relatively poor access after the rains and the community also ran short of diesel, which is used for both transport and the electricity generator. In another example of the impacts on marginalisation, Watarru used to be supplied by solar and wind renewable energy but after these systems have broken down they were not fixed. The community now rely on the 200 litre/day diesel generator and they were down to 15 litres diesel reserve when the truck got through after the rain. If it had run dry there would have been no power for fridges or lights in a community of 20 adults until the community could have been resupplied with fuel. The main power station at Umuwa uses approximately 6000litre per day of diesel, and could similarly be seen at risk to rising fuel prices (Image 29).
Image 29. Distillate Bowser at Watarru indicating expensive fuel (Photo: D Bardsley)
The implications of direct impacts of climate-induced hazards and changes to resource condition on people’s livelihoods suggest that in the AW NRM region climate change will not only have significant ecological implications, which could alter the nature of the region over time, but will raise existential questions for some communities. Poverty-related environmental issues still exist in some remote communities, whether through poor nutrition or sanitation, and those issues still need to be responded to. Climate change will lead to direct impacts of hazards including more significant floods and fires in the future. For those reasons, the environmental health and environmental
115 115 hazard impacts may need to be more broadly discussed, because new challenges are also emerging: some linked to climate change, others indirectly associated with the costs of resourcing remote communities. In just a couple of examples, the risk of mosquito-borne diseases was not seen as a significant issue in the AW NRM region, but could a problem in other parts of Australia as a consequence of the La Niña rains of 2010-2011 (McMichael et al. 2006). On a number of occasions, people in the APY mentioned that the large numbers of flies associated with the wet summer led to more significant eye infections in the region. Another new risk may come with rising fuel prices, which have increased significantly in the last few years and are likely to have a significant negative impact on the costs of living in remote communities.
A next step in this process of understanding how to learn to adapt to climate change across this vast region may also involve assessments of how socio-ecological vulnerability will be influenced by climate change in conjunction with constraints such as rising energy, fuel and food costs, increasingly focussing activities on managing changing socio-economic, as well as environmental conditions. In particular, there is a significant risk that the AW NRM region will be impacted by higher energy prices as a result of the peaking of oil supplies, just as they are implementing climate change adaptation initiatives. The risks associated with rising energy and oil costs will present additional, often confounding challenges to NRM in the face of a changing climate. It is crucial that such risks are considered as part of a broader adaptive approach to NRM in the region, so it is worth elaborating on them further in relation to risks to community and effective regional NRM.
“Peak oil” is the term given to the peaking of global oil production due to fundamental resource limitations, after which production declines inexorably as oil becomes scarcer, lower in energy quality, and more expensive to extract (Grubb 2010). While peak oil does not mean the end of oil altogether, it signifies the end of cheap oil, as the gap between demand from growing economies (and populations) and shrinking oil supplies widens (Hopkins 2008). Debate continues about the predicted date of the peak, but there is mounting evidence that if it has not occurred already, the peak is likely to occur within the next five years (Hirsch et al. 2005; Holmgren 2009; Hopkins 2008; Newman et al. 2009). Regardless of the exact date, peak oil represents a significant risk to many critical sectors of society. In the case of the AW NRM region, this risk is exacerbated by the region’s remoteness, vast travelling distances, and current reliance on oil-dependent transport (both air and truck freight) to provide food, medicine, emergency support, and to provide access between communities and regional centres. In addition, much critical infrastructure, such as water provision, electricity generation, and communications rely solely on diesel generators for power.
Efforts to adapt NRM practices to climate change must also be mindful of the vulnerabilities associated with peak oil. Simply accessing country was consistently raised by APY respondents as a difficult and costly business, and increasing diesel costs will exacerbate this challenge. Many specific climate change adaptation responses, such as increasing reliance on groundwater resources to supplement more variable rainfall, may actually increase overall vulnerability due to the increased risk of supply disruptions to fossil-fuel dependent pumps for groundwater extraction. Similarly, climate change adaptation strategies that rely on transport of bulky equipment, such as the fencing of rockholes, may become increasingly difficult as transport costs escalate. This poses a significant challenge for NRM in the region, given that most activities require driving many hundreds of kilometres to manage resources effectively.
Several initiatives, such as those being raised at the forthcoming Desert Knowledge Symposium in Alice Springs, November 2011 (http://www.desertknowledgesymposium.com/default.asp), are looking at how desert communities can plan for and adapt to the twin challenges of climate change and peak oil, and increase their overall resilience to these threats. Strategies that increase the
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resilience of critical systems, at the same time as decreasing reliance on fossil fuels, will be important. Such strategies would aim to increase local resilience to future energy risks and could include: ensuring sustainable bushfood harvesting; growing more food within communities; establishing more gravity-fed rainwater tanks for domestic supply; building earth-covered cool- rooms that keep perishable foods cool without the use of electricity; integrating renewable energy options into the regional energy supply mix; using passive solar design techniques (as well as vegetative shading) to improve the thermal comfort of dwellings; and, using solar hot water heaters for hot water supply. Crucially, these measures also provide a degree of resilience against many climate change-induced threats, such as isolation of remote communities due to flood events.
Along with new threats such as climate change and energy price risks, it could also be argued that social vulnerability is increasing for some people in the AW NRM region because vital traditional and more recent human and social resources, that helped to establish the Anangu homelands in the first place and held them together as functioning communities, is being depleted over time.
“No-one is living out on the homelands anymore. Most homelands are not permanently used now. People want to live in a big community, rather than at their homelands. The main thing is that they want their children to go to school. Maybe some old people want to stay out at the homelands, but they are building new homes in the community now” (Kalka- Pipalyatjara 23/3/2011).
Due to the remoteness and relative lack of local economic and institutional resources to support local adaptation, climate change could particularly challenge the capacities of communities, managers and practitioners to adapt systems in the AW NRM region to future risk. As will be discussed further below, it may be necessary to advocate that the role of NRM be expanded to integrate more broadly with community activities and those policies that aim to overcome some of the socio-ecological disadvantages of Anangu communities in the AW NRM region.
Traditional Ecological Knowledge
It will be a challenge to integrate projected climate change with local traditional ecological knowledge to create effective information available on future risk in clear manner for the communities across the AW NRM region. Indigenous knowledge systems have a significant potential to frame future approaches to managing country in a holistic manner, and need to be more thoughtfully and comprehensively integrated with other knowledges for effective NRM (Johnson and Murton 2007). Participatory approaches to integrate traditional knowledge into NRM activities to manage risk need to be further researched for the region (see discussion above and Mercer et al. 2010). In the short term, climate change information could be translated into language with key messages put on websites and posters that are present in community centres and schools, perhaps one on what climate change is and another on a summary of projected impacts on the region. More broadly, community engagement regarding the NRM challenges of future climate change could be facilitated with the use of artistic representations of the changing landscape and biodiversity. Another example, outlined by Prober et al. (2011) would be the more detailed use of Anangu knowledge of the seasons and how they relate to bush food availability and management requirements, which could facilitate better integration of indigenous and other forms of knowledge.
Working with interested, well-established successful art centres could provide a mechanism for raising awareness and facilitating discussion and education on environmental management. However, there are also bigger, long-term questions to address as well. A significant component of effective risk management is the ownership of risk (see Bardsley and Rogers 2011). By engaging
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strongly with local people and discussing pathways to support future research and adaptation through the AW NRM Board and the Federal Government’s Caring for Country Policy, real practical steps could be made to improve the readiness of local communities to future change through the NRM frameworks (DSEWPC 2011).
We need to ask an important question at the beginning of this section – how serious is Australia about maintaining traditional ecological knowledge and working to integrate it with modern knowledge? The answer to this question comes down to values: the value of difference; the value of traditional knowledge for its own sake; the value of the existence and developing of an alternative, complex worldview associated strongly with the environment; the utilitarian values of local, traditional values feeding into ways of managing country that could lead to superior management outcomes; and the bequest and option values of knowing that a wonderful system of ideas will be available in the future to support and potentially integrate into our emerging understanding of just how big the challenges of the future may be. At the APY workshops the challenge of maintaining traditional knowledge across generations and applying that knowledge was consistently emphasised:
“Traditional ecological knowledge and land management is being challenged because people do not have the capacity to get out to country or the next generation to take on the roles of managing sung country. In the past, old people walked around the country and knew the signs of changing weather patterns. Years ago we used to know everything because we would go out in the country all the time and feel the changes. Now we are just stuck in Amata. We used to look after country, but now we just look after the store! We need to understand country. People need to learn about country. Only a few young people are still hunting, understanding. It is good to see you coming to work with local people. We have started a program to go out and learn about the honey ant” (Amata 21/3/2011).
“One of the most important points may simply be making people aware of waste. People just leave taps on because they don’t have to pay for it, or leave lights and air-conditioning on all the time when they are not at home. Climate change adaptation may involve and increased understanding of environmental issues beyond land. Even land knowledge could be being lost very quickly. To manage country Traditional ecological knowledge must continue to be a living knowledge that must be invested in. The old people already tell the young one’s things and they write it down. You might be interested in plants and animals, and you might be interested in climate, but out here people come first and they must be the focus of programs. We want to have a ranger here. There is big work here and we are never going to do it all. We have big families and people always want to go to the store” (Watarru 24/3/2011).
Perhaps the relationship to land in some communities is becoming a less personal experience for many, and the implications of the potential loss of some traditional understanding and knowledge needs to be acknowledged more formally by NRM, and the nation in general. Australia is losing an incredible wealth if it oversees the loss of traditional knowledge, without attempting to fully support initiatives to maintain and develop it, and also incorporate such knowledge into NRM processes. The extensive knowledge of local natural resource systems held by and for the Anangu people has rarely been formalised, so that researchers external to the region can use it to examine future needs for ecological, infrastructure and production. This is true for many aspects of NRM in the semi-arid areas of Australia, including biodiversity, fire, and water resource management (Robinson et al. 2003; Edwards and Allan 2009). For example, as Box et al. (2008, 1401) state “Aboriginal
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knowledge of waterbodies is substantially restricted to oral tradition and anthropological reports, and the majority of knowledge is not in the public domain.” The reluctance of some Anangu to share traditional knowledge is completely understandable, because the colonial and post-colonial abuse of powers and the misuse of information have a long history, reflecting the appalling manner in which Europeans and non-Anangu Australians impacted on local communities at times (Robinson et al. 2003, 41-49).
“In the past, someone came from NSW and talked with the women about Tjakaru, and then went away. He pretended that he was the expert on the lizards and that he held the intellectual property on their ecology. But when he wanted to come back with another group, the Traditional Owners said no, because he had not honoured their culture. This is a big problem” (Watarru 24/3/2011).
There is a further point to be made here - the levels of new socio-ecological risks, the loss of received wisdom and knowledge from one generation to another, the increasing complexity of relationships between Anangu and government, non-government organisations and non-Anangu individuals suggests that there is now a role for a new and better integration of NRM with forms of traditional knowledge. This process may involve new interdisciplinary, interface systems or even organisations to facilitate the interchange of information and the development of alliances to support adaptation (Verstraete et al. 2009). Anangu communities will need to incorporate new knowledge into traditional knowledge systems to learn how to adapt to rapid environmental change, just as all organisations and governance institutions must learn to adapt to a climate change (Bardsley and Rogers 2011; Hunt 2005). Part of that response is linked to the communication of ideas discussed previously, but another part involves recognition of the role of social learning to develop improved approaches to managing country in the changing social and ecological contexts. These comments come from an outsiders’ perspective, yet the potential loss or weakening of that traditional knowledge without integrating it more formally into NRM should be perceived as a failure for any conceptualisation of sustainable development in Australia.
It could, and in our opinion, should be perceived that the value of tradition knowledge is so great (see for example the role of fire management for biodiversity conservation) that new forms of engagement will need to continue to be developed. The Anangu Pitjantjatjara Lands Biological Survey (Robinson et al. 2003) provides a great example of how researchers can work effectively with local Anangu, so that traditional and scientific knowledge can be integrated for a major NRM outcome. As Robinson et al. (2003, 2) state the Anangu “retain a profound and intimate knowledge of the flora and fauna of their homelands with many plants and animals being both a source of food and an integral part of their culture. This sharing of ecological knowledge was seen as particularly important part of the biological survey of the AP Lands.” However, current and past knowledge of systems is going to be insufficient to adapt to the impacts of climate change, not only in the AW NRM region but throughout the globe. Verstraete et al. (2009, 423) note that “people in drylands have learned to adapt to the scarcity and variability of resources, although climate change is likely to increase the variability and stress to which they are exposed, possibly beyond their capacity to cope.” New knowledge from scientific studies and modelling can be integrated with other forms of learning, including traditional knowledge and new local Anangu observations, to guide future planning and action. Part of the response to these challenges will involve greater formal research into the impact of climate on NRM within the region (see section on Country and Water below), but increasingly local people are also going to need to be empowered to maintain and take on new roles to manage local environmental change.
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Training, Education and Employment
In the APY workshops, there was a consistent, concerning message from the elders that there is a mismatch between the needs and responsibilities of looking after country, and the goals and ambitions of the majority of younger generations. Funding is rarely provided directly to the traditional owners themselves to facilitate work at the local level according to local interpretations of need and other important “power asymmetries” (Hill and Williams 2009, 168) of the indigenous NRM governance process need to be examined. For example, the governing bodies were consistently criticised in the APY workshops, which perhaps is indicative of the difficulties of meeting the needs of local people while supporting NRM with limited resources, but nevertheless need to be mentioned because concerns were consistently emphasised:
“The Indigenous Protected Area (not yet proclaimed for Amata) would provide money to guide management, to support burning, to control erosion, clean out rockholes and other things” (Amata 21/3/2011).
“There is a problem that Kanpi-Nyapari people don’t receive any general assistance from the APY Lands Council or the State Government, just the police, health and education services. At the same time the community has the most successful business in the APY region, with the Art Centre making over $1 million profit last year. We need a new Toyota to be able to go out and manage country” (Kanpi-Nyapari 22/3/2011).
“The Minister has pushed a project to set up big gardens here, such as a quandong plantation, but they haven’t really thought it through. What about issues of water, labour or camels coming in to knock them down. The problem is that she is coming up next week and she’ll see the country all green without many camels around town, and she’ll think that it is all possible, but it is not normally like this. In a few months, once it has dried out, the camels will be back. The Land council just worry that everything is legal they don’t help out enough. There is only one vehicle, which makes working on the Lands difficult” (Kalka-Pipalyatjara 23/3/2011).
“We are aware that there have been arguments between APY Land Management and the AW NRM Board – we are happy that there are not arguments now, because our work dropped down a bit. We are wanting to work, there is so much work to do now. We would like the young people to go out but they need to be paid for the work that they do. The money for the Watarru IPA has been sitting for 5 years in Umuwa, but the APY Land Management won’t release it because they haven’t heard back from the Watarru managers. The Watarru people have been waiting on the money for 5 years. It has caused conflict, people aren’t working and they can’t feed their families or look after country. They wouldn’t give the money for the watertanks for the kangaroos. The Kuka Kanyini (DENR) program has set up tank watering points for animals down south, for malu, emu, other animals. People don’t have cars or money to run them, so they can’t go out and monitor country, manage problems. The money comes from Canberra to the APY Land Management, but they won’t give it to Watarru – this is no good, the money must go the community. We have worked for APY Land Management but we didn’t get paid, so we won’t worry about working for them again. We need for Land Management and Kuka Kanyani to sort things out so that when they ask for things, they can be dealt with. There is a big problem in the communities that there is a lot of work but there is no money.
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People want to work but there is no money, the IPA can only ever cover casual wages so they can’t employ rangers. We are being strong by staying in the Grandfathers’ and Grandmothers’ land, we will be strong, but we need some money, we all have grandchildren to feed and food is expensive. The money story for the IPAs is a problem. When all the 5 IPAs are up and running, there will be 3 managers who will oversee them all, and there will be no other full time positions. Can’t we have some Anangu in those full-time positions? Are there any trainee-positions available for Anangu? There has to be some effort to put local people in these positions. There hasn’t been any effort to train Anangu for the IPA positions” (Watarru 24/3/2011).
At the moment what jobs are available in local environmental management are very rarely full-time, well-paid positions that would develop and train local people to become professionals in the field of local NRM in the future – this mismatch is not unique to the AW NRM region (see Hill and Williams 2009; HORSCATSIA 2004). May (2010: 398) notes that for NRM, “the majority of Indigenous land and sea management groups remain extremely fragile, under-resourced and reliant on a multitude of small, tied grant funding sources which only fund project costs, rather than wages or management and infrastructure costs.” That could change without an enormous increase in costs to NRM ranger programs and other indigenous NRM activities. The fact that so much employment in communities is part-time, impermanent or paid via Community Development Employment Projects/Centrelink raises the question of how seriously Australia values unique indigenous NRM involvement, knowledge and culture in remote areas. As Hill and Williams (2009, 166) point out “the allocation of less than 3% of National funding to (indigenous) organisations responsible for managing the 20% of Australia with such outstanding conservation significance and important management challenges represents a policy failure.” Where Anangu are keen to engage with local NRM this should be significantly resourced over longer timeframes. As such, Caring for Country may need to evolve over time to provide more permanent employment positions in remote Anangu communities through such schemes as the Working for Country and Indigenous Protected Area programs (DSEWPC 2011).
The levels of state and NGO intervention and policy development within the AW NRM region has been complex, and historically at times both bewildering and/or nasty (Heathcote 1994; Bishop et al. 2009; Moran and Elvin 2009). Many of the Anangu communities are very remote and so everyday, informal contact with modern societal activities have often been limited to religious and educational institutions, and essential service providers. In more recent times, the value and importance of the relationship between indigenous communities and the environment has been more formally recognised through NRM governance arrangements, particular the Caring for Country Policy, which identifies indigenous management of the environment as a core area of interest. The formalisation of the value of indigenous relationships with natural resources in the AW region provides a significant mechanism for working with people with positive and vital knowledge and skills to continue to improve the relationships between external interests and the people of the region.
The need for both effective “complex adaptive systems” for governance within remote indigenous communities (Moran and Elvin 2009, 420) and for strongly integrated, multi-layered governance systems to guide adaptation responses to climate change provides such a complex challenge, that it could be seen as an opportunity for major reform of indigenous NRM. If undertaken effectively climate change adaption in the region offers a new opportunity to deal with some of the risks of social marginalisation and could underpin the “sustainable livelihoods” of many within remote, indigenous communities (Altman et al. 2007; Davies et al. 2008). For as May (2010: 398) states, “many Indigenous organisations and government agencies consider Indigenous land and sea
121 121 managementmanagement groups groups to to provide provide a acore core function function in in communities.” communities.” Similarly Similarly Hill Hill and and Williams Williams (2009, (2009, 167)167) note note that that “Indigenous “Indigenous NRM NRM therefore therefore has has significance significance beyond the the principlesprinciples of equity: the the opportunityopportunity to to uplift uplift Indigenous Indigenous health health and and socio-economic socio-economic disadvantage, disadvantage, and and to to achieve achieve sustainablesustainable management management of of high high conservation conservation value value landscapes landscapes through through Indigenous Indigenous adaptive adaptive managementmanagement systems systems based based on on sui sui generis generis customary customary law law with with proven proven contemporary contemporary outcomes outcomes for for biodiversitybiodiversity conservation.” conservation.” Given Given the the new new risks risks to to regional regional NRM NRM and and communities, communities, strong strong Anangu Anangu engagementengagement with with and and through through NRM NRM to to manage manage ecological ecological risk risk offers offers significant significant opportunities to to reducereduce social social vulnerability vulnerability in in the the region. region.
EducationEducation systems systems may may need need to to increasingly increasingly incorporate incorporate future future roles roles of of NRM, NRM, such such as as ranger ranger knowledgeknowledge and and activities, activities, into into formal formal curricula. curricula. There There are are a nine number primary of primary schools schools situated situated on the APY onLands, the APY and Lands, there isand some there senior is some training senior for training older s tudentsfor older incorporated students incorporated in the primary in the schools. schools. ProgramsPrograms such such as as the the South South Australia Australia Aboriginal Aboriginal Apprenticeship Apprenticeship Program Program and and the the South South Australian Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples’ Scholarship Investment Fund are to be highlighted Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples’ Scholarship Investment Fund are to be highlighted and valued, but could there be an alternative to leaving the Lands to go to Adelaide, Ceduna, Port and valued, but could there be stronger links between schools and the challenges of the inter- Augusta or Alice Springs for comprehensive secondary schooling and could that be linked to the generational transition in traditional ecological knowledge? Perhaps a new form of secondary challenges of the inter-generational transition in traditional ecological knowledge? Perhaps a new schooling could be developed in central locations in the North and the South, where a special form of secondary schooling could be developed in central locations in the North and the South, curriculum could integrate local and traditional ecological knowledge, with appropriate curriculum where a special curriculum could integrate local and traditional ecological knowledge, with that would incorporate NRM education. Such innovative institutions could be exactly what are appropriate curriculum that would incorporate NRM education. Such innovative institutions could be needed if effectively linked to employment opportunities, to manage the level of future risk involved exactly what are needed if effectively linked to employment opportunities, to manage the level of with climate change in a place of significant social vulnerability in wealthyAustralia (Bardsley 2007). future risk involved with climate change in a place of significant social vulnerability in wealthy Australia (Bardsley 2007). Innovative secondary schooling could integrate indigenous and conventional State curriculum inInnovative a local setting. secondary Such anschool approaching could at developing integrate indigenous appropriate, and complex conventional education State may curriculum offer in a opportunitieslocal setting .to Such link traditionalan approach ecological at developing knowledge appropriate, to scientific complex information education and may western offer knowledge,opportunities while to linkensuring traditional that strongecological links knowledge to place and to communityscientific information are retained and for western Anangu students.knowledge The, while schools ensuring would that also strong facilitate links more to place adult and education community that arecrosses retained recognisable for Anangu barriersstudents between. Teenagers traditional would and be western able stay knowledge on the lands (HORSCATSIA and see family, 2004). friends To beand able community to obtain more andregularly maintain and professional the schools employment, may also facilitate and develop adult education life skills, that increasingly crosses recognisablethe skills of reading barriers and(HORSCATSIA writing are vital. 2004 To). be To successful, be able to obtainthe education and maintain and training professional would employment,need to lead onand to develop professionallife skills, increasingly NRM positions the skills within of the reading AW region. and writing There are are vital. some To great be successful, development the successeseducation and intraining the region, would such need as tothe lead ongoing on to investmentprofessional into NRM traditional positions management within the AW of countryregion. inThere places are or some thegreat numerous development Art Centres, successes and perhapsin the region, more suchcould as be the done ongoing to build investment on those successes.into traditional The potentialmanagement integration of country of NRM in placeswith other or the community numerous activities Art Centres, provides and aperhaps cross-boundary more could role be for done to NRMbuild in on the those future, success whiches is. rare The in potential Australia integration beyond particular of NRM withtargeted other programs community – the activities integration provides of environmentala cross-boundary management role for NRM with ineducation the future, and which social is development.rare in Australia beyond particular targeted programs – the integration of environmental management with education and social development.
9.2 Country and Water 9.2 Country and Water The AW NRM region is relatively poorly researched in relation to formalised studies of ecological and management processes, particularly as they relate to climate. Beyond this vulnerability The AW NRM region is relatively poorly researched in relation to formalised studies of ecological assessment, considerable further scientific research will need to be undertaken, as well as testing and management processes, particularly as they relate to climate. Beyond this vulnerability and learning from management activities in conjunction with local people (Bardsley and Sweeney assessment, considerable further scientific research will need to be undertaken, as well as testing 2010). Future research methodologies are likely to vary according to the needs of the sector and and learning from management activities in conjunction with local people (Bardsley and Sweeney may require highly detailed biophysical and socio-economic data analysis, but we attempt to outline 2010). Future research methodologies are likely to vary according to the needs of the sector and may require highly detailed biophysical and socio-economic data analysis, but we attempt to outline
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what we consider to be some major directions for adaptation research below. Initiatives such as ACRIS (The Australian Collaborative Rangelands Information System) and the Australian Natural Resource Management Knowledge System will help to draw together much appropriate information to assist future adaptation research and practice (see for example Bastin et al. 2009). It is vital, as noted above, that traditional knowledge and activities be more broadly integrated with modern scientific knowledge to enable indigenous NRM decision-making and practice.
Part of a better understanding of AW RNM regional systems would involve better monitoring and data assimilation of local climate and environmental conditions. Verstraete et al. (2009, 426) detail a range of requirements for improving the monitoring of drylands to support climate change adaptation, stating that “efforts must:
1. Focus primarily on slow variables and their thresholds, rather than becoming distracted by tracking the intrinsic high-frequency variability of the system; 2. Cover the diversity of relevant ecosystem services; 3. Include both human and environmental dimensions with ‘coregistered’ (that is, measured on the same geographical or similar units) indicators that suit the scale of purpose; 4. Occur at the multiple scales at which information is needed, but in ways that ensure that its collection is coordinated for maximum efficiency – this probably means having a multiscaled ‘system of systems’ 5. Include measures of local environmental knowledge and its evolution; and, 6. Ensure that there is an adaptive process for triggering action as a result of monitoring feedback, including an ability to update the monitoring systems itself.”
Better understanding of how climate affects socio-ecological systems across semi-arid Australia is also required (Tietjen and Jeltsch 2007). For example, large areas of the AW NRM region either have no Meteorological stations or they are of relatively low-quality, so detailed impacts of climate on environmental systems are very difficult to analyse. When you consider that much of central WA also lacks Meteorological stations (Wright 1997), there is an enormous part of Australia where climatic data is very limited. Similarly there are key gaps in formalised knowledge in relation to vital areas of natural resource management in relation to climatic drivers. These gaps are also reflected in the AW NRM draft plan (AW NRM Board 2010), namely:
Little formalised knowledge of vital groundwater resources across the entire region and particularly in the less sparsely populated areas of the APY Lands Little formalised knowledge of the impacts of grazing on the region Little formalised knowledge of how climate triggers and sustains modes of semi-arid ecosystems Little formalised knowledge of ecosystem responses to rainfall or fire events
Specific vulnerabilities to current threats, let alone future impacts, have become increasingly obvious in the review of AW NRM activities and climate change. It will be fundamental to manage these current threats in conjunction with new climate change impacts that might emerge in the future.
Water
The responses of NRM to water management under climate change are likely to vary, due to the diversity of water resources in the region, and the variability of impacts these resources will experience as climate change increases. As highlighted in the Water section, priority of protection
123 123 from feral animals and other stressors needs to be given to the most permanent sources of surface water (whether fresh or saline), as these sources offer the highest refuge quality to biodiversity, and offer increased ecological resilience to climate change compared with more ephemeral surface waters. The potential integration of permanent water sources into core conservation areas (outlined above) would offer increased benefits to biodiversity within these areas.
The potential for increased rainwater harvesting to supplement reliance on groundwater should also not be overlooked. Ideally, groundwater should be used as a last resort, once higher-quality rainwater reserves have been used up (with some kept as a backup supply). Rainwater harvesting from roofs and other hard surfaces can provide multiple benefits to climate change variability, by increasing the diversity of water supply sources, providing gravity back-up when bore pumps are damaged by floods or have run out of fuel, and by reducing the pressure on groundwater resources, which is likely to increase under climate change. In addition, the direct feedback between water use and tank level can provide a means of communicating the need to conserve water in a water scarce region. Importantly, tanks will need to be much larger, and located away from flood prone areas, to be able to catch and store the larger volumes of runoff from single storm events predicted under climate change. In a longer timescale, some communities may need to re-organise or even relocate permanently to higher ground if the increased frequency and magnitude of large storm events leads to significant regular flooding and damages critical infrastructure.
Biodiversity Conservation and Invasive species
There are major problems with managing invasive plants and animals in the AW NRM region. As stated above, the remoteness of large parts of the region has provided a mechanism to protect native biodiversity from invasive species up until now, but the scope of the issues are now massive, and mining and tourism activities are ensuring that nowhere is as remote as it once was. These types of projects may seem like endless or irresolvable biosecurity issues, but as detailed in the section on Invasive Species it may be possible to turn some of the perceived negative impacts of exotic species into opportunities associated with targeted management and hunting.
Some biodiversity, especially mammal species, has already been severely depleted over the last century, whereas other systems seem resilient to the changes in the manner in which people have interacted with the environment across the region. Much of the focus is on rare and threatened species, such as the Warru via a recovery project, which is to be supported. Nevertheless, there were significant questions raised about more common mammals and their inability to increase in density within the APY Lands when the rains returned over the last 18 months. In adjacent areas, such as Curtin Springs station, high densities of Malu (red kangaroos) were readily apparent in association with increased rainfall after the long dry period. It might be quite different country, but in connection with workshop comments that the Malu were largely absent locally, the question is raised; what are the important pressures on large, native mammals in the APY Lands? While it may well be issues of different levels of feral animal control on the adjacent pastoral property, the impacts of hunting on local mammal populations in the APY may need to be monitored more closely in the future. Obviously this is a sensitive issue because Anangu must continue to have the right to hunt on their lands, but there are also interesting approaches possible for more complex management systems which can provide opportunities for both sustainable hunting practices and effective conservation.
The integration of traditional ecological knowledge with positivist, scientific NRM for biodiversity conservation outcomes is still in development (Horstman and Wightman 2001), but as highlighted above, the previous work by Robinson et al. (2003) suggests what is possible when work is
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undertaken in good faith, with significant investment and over substantial timeframes. Just as we need to learn how to adapt systems to climate change, there needs to be more serious attempts at integrating traditional knowledge into biodiversity conservation practice, and substantial investment for facilitating effective responses to future climate change. Altman et al. (2007) detail just how much important biodiversity across Australia could be better managed through stronger integration of formal conservation goals with community activities. Horstman and Wightman (2001, 102) advocate more investment into ethnobiological resources via greater investment into “an unhurried and respectful approach to discussions or research with senior custodians of knowledge on mutually beneficial terms.”
Picking up the example of managing mammals as a sustainable hunting resource again, as an extended example of how this could be enabled - core conservation areas could be negotiated with local communities that remain off-limits to hunting, especially during drier periods when mammal populations are naturally depleted. As several respondents stated, much traditional ecological knowledge is passed on and renewed through people’s experiences with bushfood, rather than simply managing the environment in general, so any attempts at ensuring security of hunting and gathering may also facilitate mechanisms for transitions of traditional knowledge from one generation to another. The establishment of IPAs throughout the AW NRM region suggest a mechanism through which the process could work via strong mechanisms of community engagement. UNESCO Man and Biosphere (MAB) reserves, and in fact the (controversial) SA Marine reserves, offer mechanisms by which such differential classification of land use could protect core populations of more common species so that they can reproduce and increase populations relatively rapidly when significant rains provide better opportunities. These core areas could, as is envisaged in the case of Marine reserves, provide sources for large mammals to re-populate the landscape and provide ongoing hunting opportunities. Any steps in this direction towards land use classifications for maintaining no-take zones of common mammals to support source remnant populations during wetter periods would need a considerable process of engagement with local traditional owners, as they should not and could not be imposed externally. Feral animal control could also be focussed in these vital areas to ensure that important cultural sites and sources of bushfood could be retained in relatively high numbers. These types of refuges for conserving biodiversity are likely to become more important with climate change, especially when they can be focussed in areas that provide bioclimatic refuges as a warming trend continues, and during the longer dry periods provide opportunities for native animals to survive around water sources.
Food and Land Management
The discussion of bushfood raises another key area of focus that combines community needs with NRM activities – the issue of local food security. Climate change poses a real risk to food security in the AW NRM region, due to a combination of supply disruptions as a result of floods (see Water Management section), and reduced productivity of the land due to increasing variability of rainfall. In addition, food security is likely to be exacerbated by rising energy costs associated with peak oil and other resource shortages (see Social Vulnerability section). The recent SA State Government plan for food security in the APY lands, while ignoring the risks of climate change, nevertheless highlights the current insecurity of food supply and food access for Anangu communities, where in a recent survey approximately 24 percent of indigenous people aged 15 years and older reported they ran out of food at some point in the 12 months, with people in remote areas more likely to report having run out of food than those in non-remote areas (36 percent compared with 20 percent) (SA Government 2010). Such food insecurity issues are outside the scope of conventional NRM. However, without secure and reliable access to food for communities, effective NRM will be
125 125 increasingly difficult. While not attempting to address the complex socio-economic, cultural, political and governance issues that determine access to safe, healthy food, the authors of this report wish to highlight that climate change will compound these existing barriers. Adaptation to the impacts of climate change on food security involves diversifying the food system, to ensure that backup sources are available if and when disruptions occur (Bardsley 2003).
Image 30. Garden at the Art Centre, Nyapari (Photo: D Bardsley)
Increasing the amount of food grown and harvested locally could become an important part of improving food security in the AW NRM region. The State Government’s decision to establish two community gardens in Watarru and Sandy Bore to supply fresh fruit and vegetables to the community stores reflects this importance. However, there are a number of associated challenges. It is already very difficult to undertake sustainable horticultural operations in semi-arid environments. Climate change is likely to increase the stress of growing fruit and vegetables in the AW NRM region, by increasing mean and extreme temperatures, leading to increased evapotranspiration and increased risk of sunburn/heat stress; increased dust storms which can severely damage sensitive plants through wind damage and/or sand-scalding; and increasing the variability and magnitude of rainfall events, which increases the risk of damage during storms or water deficit stress on plants during dry periods. Strategies to reduce the risk of climate change to local food production include: using more protective wind breaks (i.e. shadecloth for immediate protection, and long-lived dry- adapted plants for more permanent shelter); using light shadecloth covers, or taller plants and vines over vegetables and fruit trees during summer to reduce heat and direct solar damage (image 30); using water-based white paints and silica-based sprays to prevent sunburn on fruit trees; using food plant species that are naturally tolerant of semi-arid conditions, such as quandong, carob, mesquite, and jujube; and re-using non-potable water, such as treated effluent water or grey water as irrigation sources for fruit trees.
The housing design of communities can also play a huge role in supporting food gardens to thrive, as houses and house-clusters can provide sheltered micro-climates, sources of water, and increased protection from animals. In turn, plants such as pumpkin or grape vines can provide the
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house with passive cooling and shading benefits. The close proximity of food gardens and houses allows for greater observation and timely maintenance, compared with a community garden that is a long way from where people live, and which may not get the regular attention in needs. One of the authors was involved in a Homelands gardens project on the APY Lands in the early 1990s, and that project noted the importance both of activities that were at a manageable scale, and the involvement of keen individuals and communities to maintain their gardens. While climate change will challenge local food production in the AW NRM region, the increased food security and food resilience that comes with production of local, fresh, affordable and healthy food could be a better alternative that depending on a centralised, fossil-fuel dependent distribution system of expensive and (often) unhealthy food, which itself is at risk of supply disruptions.
The knowledge of the impacts of cattle grazing in the east of the APY Lands is relatively limited and that leads to external accusations of mismanagement, especially if there are significant dust storm events as experienced towards the end of the drought at different times. De-stocking during extended dry periods when there is little feed or cover available is known to be a vital rangeland management practice, which is already strongly applied across most pastoral districts. Effective monitoring of stock numbers and responses to reduce carrying capacity when land would become degraded during drier periods becomes even more important if the dry periods become longer in the future with climate change, and the associated grazing pressures from invasive herbivores such as camels and donkeys exacerbates risk of desertification, especially in and around important ecological areas such as clay pans and rockholes. It is recognised that there are several significant challenges with the management and de-stocking of both feral and domestic livestock during dry periods. Poor access to markets, shortages of labour for herding and rounding up stock, cultural sensitivities towards camels and donkeys, and increasing fuel prices for transport all work against what could be an increasingly important adaptation strategy under climate change. However, recent proposals for a camel-processing plant in the region (e.g. Weekly Times Now 2011) may help to overcome some of these difficulties. Targeted destocking of feral animals within designated conservation areas may help to reduce the scale of herding and mustering required, and at the same time provide benefits to native biodiversity in the area.
Currently five Indigenous Protected Areas (IPAs) are planned for the APY Lands, with three already underway at Watarru, Kalka-Pipalyatjara and Walalkrra and another two in development. At the moment Federal Assistance for NRM on the lands is largely funnelled through the IPA funding mechanism, which provides opportunities for accountability. At the same time, within the grazed areas in the area to the northeast including Pukatja, Fregon, Amata and Indulkana there is relatively little knowledge of the impacts of grazing on biodiversity and lands. Involvement in programs such as Working on Country and DustWatch will assist this process, but it does raise the question of how comprehensively land management processes and programs that are underway in other parts of SA, such as monitoring of grazing in other Pastoral districts, should also be applied in the AW NRM region, but in a locally governed form.
Climate change-induced desertification is likely to have a large impact upon the AW NRM region, and overall is likely to increase the aridity and sensitivity of the landscape to disturbance, however there needs to be a consistent and ongoing effort to monitor key indicators (the slow variables) of desertification processes, in order to understand the directions and rate at which landscape systems are evolving. The scale of climate change-induced desertification, coupled with self-reinforcing ecosystem feedbacks that perpetuate desertification processes, means that adaptive management, even on a landscape scale, is likely to have little effect in halting these processes. The spread of Buffel grass within the region is an example of such a self-reinforcing process, whereby the grass
127 127 increases the likelihood of large, hot fires, which then remove other moderately fire-tolerant species, reducing competition and further spreading the invasive species (see Figure 22). Such processes may be able to be controlled and prevented in small, intensively managed areas such as around communities and significant waterholes; however at a landscape scale the elements that drive these systems (such as disturbance from feral animals, changed fire regimes, and changing climatic conditions) are difficult to control. In addition, adaptation measures to protect communities from more extreme heatwaves, increased dust storms, encroaching sand dunes and loss of land productivity will be required. Given the vast scale of the region and comparatively small resources at hand for NRM, a flexible and dynamic adaptation approach may be required to determine which areas and resources are worth preserving in a close-to-natural state, and which areas must be allowed to take their course as the landscape responds to a changing climate. Finding a use for unwanted resources, such as feral camels, offers an effective way of managing these resources, as income can be generated at the same time as NRM benefits are achieved.
Coastal management and adaptation under climate change remains uncertain at present, due to the large uncertainties in rates and magnitudes of sea level rise, and lack of detailed topographic data of the AW NRM coastline. Erosion of both the Bunda cliffs and sandy beaches may occur at elevated rates, due to increases in wave energy acting at higher sea-levels and frequency of extreme storm surges. However, the exact mechanisms and dynamics for these particular areas are presently poorly understood. Taking a precautionary approach and assuming a sea-level rise of 1.5-2 m by 2100 is recommended given recent scientific research. It will be necessary to continue revising these guidelines, because it is likely that increasing rates of sea-level rise are likely to be non-linear. The impact that future climate change will have on sea-defence threshold levels during extreme storm events is unknown, but such events could potentially have much more of an impact on coastal systems than sea-level rise alone. For example, it is unknown at present whether important coastal ecosystems in the AW NRM region such as salt marshes can adapt to rapid rates of sea-level rise without suffering significant loss of habitat and/or function. It is important to note that predictions of future conditions for coasts, and in fact all systems discussed above, are not intended to be static, and need to be continually updated as the knowledge of systems progresses.
9.3 Final word
New knowledge to guide adaptation to climate change will be vital. At the same time, the incredible wealth of knowledge that is held by Anangu and other local people throughout the AW NRM region must not be overlooked. A major challenge is presented to indigenous NRM that extends beyond isolated, piecemeal scientific climate change adaptation projects that sit as exceptional and secluded rockpools upon a broad and desiccated plain of social marginalisation and ecological risk. By fully integrating traditional knowledge and practice to link marginalised communities with new experiments in adapting to future risk, indigenous NRM could provide an infrastructure across rangeland Australia that has not existed previously and help ensure that the winds blow in the right direction for some of the most disadvantaged people in Australia. Federal Caring for Country policy, with its appropriate focus on indigenous NRM, is initiating that process. How the new adaptation stories are applied and sung by stakeholders and advocates, such as regional NRM bodies, to link knowledge across that dry plain will be the key to managing future risk to people and country.
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Appendix 1: Statement and Guiding questions for the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands Workshops, March-April 2011
Dr Douglas Bardsley, The University of Adelaide, Phone: 08 8303 4490
My name is Douglas Bardsley. Along with other researchers from the University of Adelaide, we are undertaking a study to examine how climate change will effect the management of county for the Alinytjara Wilurara Natural Resources Management Board.
As part of that review, we are interested to know how climate, especially rainfall, is impacting on how communities manage their lands. I want to discuss how rainfall and temperature impact on country. The idea is that by looking at opportunities to adapt to change in climate we can raise awareness in Government of what you are experiencing, and assist Anangu communities to plan for future climate change.
Are you happy to discuss your observations of climate change and associated impacts on country, along with the potential implications future change?
I will ask a series of questions, so we can discuss you observations and opinions.
Questions
1. What are the most important changes that you see to country:
During periods when there is a lot of rain and it is very wet?
Did the flood impacts on the community? In what way? After all this rain, what specific activities are required to manage country? Do you need to manage rockholes differently? Are their examples of species that benefit/suffer in particular? Was finding bush food a problem when it was wet? Did you have any problems with supplies during the floods? How do non-native plants and animals respond to the rains?
How does it affect the community when it is wet? Are there More/fewer big storms now? More/fewer floods?
2. What are the most important changes that you see to country:
During long dry periods?
When it was dry were there problems with fires? Did you have dust storms here? Do you have cattle around here? Were you able to de-stock when it was dry? Could you re-stock since the rains came?
Are their examples of animals or plants that benefit/suffer in particular?
What is the hunting like around the community? Did the red kangaroo (malu) suffer in the drought/ Are there malu around?
Did you have any problems with water when it was dry? With your bores? Was finding bush food a problem when it was dry? How do non-native plants and animals respond? Did you have problems with camels here? What effects did they have when it was dry/when it was wet? Do you hunt them? Do you have problems with buffel grass here? Do you manage the buffel grass? Burn it?
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How does it affect the community when it is dry? Was the last dry period a particular problem for the land?
3. What are the main things you do to manage country? Are you burning/
What else would you like to see done to help you manage country?
What information do you need to help you make management decisions?
Is traditional knowledge being passed on in relation to managing country during the wet periods and the dry periods?
4. Do you notice any change in the climate here?
5. Do you have any other comments or suggestions?
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Appendix 2: Workshop summaries from the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands, March 2011.
All workshop summaries below are made from notes taken during workshops. All intellectual property inherent in the workshop summaries continues to reside with the local people, and no claim is made over the information by the authors.
Amata Community, 21/3/2011, sitting under trees in the centre of Amata, with 17 local men, (women asked to have separate meeting), Frank Young acted as translator.
The floods had some impacts. There has been some big erosion, with roads being cut. Some creeks changed direction due to flash flooding and they spread out as they became very big and then didn’t return to their original course. There was some local flooding, some roads blocked but there was nothing too serious here with the recent rains. It is a long time since it has rained like this summer. It has been raining most of the time in recent times. Not since the 1970’s has it rained like this. This year is unusually wet not so much because of the amount of rainfall but because there have been such a large number of large falls, 5 or 6 regularly over summer. Fire management is changing. The timing of burning is not always correct, with too little burning at times and then too often. If it is too infrequent we will get bad bushfires like Yulara had. The fire breaks are not there anymore. There are more extreme conditions now. Before the rains came the camels were coming into town, going mad. Old people say that this drought was very bad. The leaves have nothing in them – it was like a fire went through and dried it all up. It was a seven year drought – you see that where the water used to be it was all dry, just dry salt pans. There was no permanent water during the long dry – the springs dried up and then lots of erosion. There used to be more birds, used to be singing everywhere here. It’s because there are more cats. Where have the Warru gone? The possums? The Warru were killed by foxes, cats and dingos. Camels and cats are the big problem, donkeys, rabbits, horses…. Camels eat anything, so all plants are vulnerable during the drought. Because they have soft, padded feet, camels don’t seem to have the same impact on the soil as cattle, which cut up the country with their hard hooves. There is a problem with camels all collecting in the clay pan areas, which are low lying and hold the water and green feed longer. Large numbers come together when it is dry in areas where some water of green feed remains and they poison wetlands. The water table is rising in some of these areas and salt is coming up through the ground, because the camels walk all over these areas. Camels wallow and feed in large numbers down in the clay pans, which removes vegetation and brings the salt to the surface as groundwater levels are no longer drawn down by trees. These areas then become very dusty. When they dry out there is a dust bowl as areas of the clay pans expand. Our country is blowing away from us. Our country is blowing across to Birdsville and the east of Australia is flying over to New Zealand! Camels have come into town in large numbers looking for water – torn off taps, knocked off air- conditioners, broke other water infrastructure such as tanks. Some people argue that camels should be shot because they are disrupting landscape but others argue that they should harvest camels and it would be a wasted resource if they are just shot. The groundwater situation is very complex. You can sink 2 bore holes close to each other and get very different results because the aquifers are not uniform. There has been some drilling by mining companies around here. Traditional ecological knowledge and land management is being challenged because people do not have the capacity to get out to country or the next generation to take on the roles of managing sung country. In the past, old people walked around the country and knew the signs of changing weather patterns. Years ago we used to know everything because we would go out in the country all the time and feel the changes. Now we are just stuck in Amata. We used to look after country, but now we just look after the store! We need to understand country. People need to learn about country. Only a few young people are still hunting, understanding. It is good to see you coming to work with local people. We have started a program to go out and learn about the honey ant.
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Sturt Desert Pea is finished now – why did that happen? Weeds like Dock and Buffel grass spread like a bushfire. There are prickles everywhere now, you used to be able to walk across the country without shoes, but the Jacks have spread everywhere now. If we don’t look after country the animals will be finished too – just dust. The Indigenous Protected Area (not yet proclaimed for Amata) would provide money to guide management, to support burning, to control erosion, clean out rockholes and other things.
Kanpi-Nyapari Community, 22/3/2011, sitting in the shelter for the Nyapari art centre, with 10 local women and 4 men, Lena Taylor acted as translator.
We had a lot of flooding here. Flooding led to major bogging – we were scared. We couldn’t get any food in because the trucks into the store were blocked by the pools of water on the roads. Food was scarce so food had to be brought in by aircraft. Even if you have a Toyota it was very hard to go hunting because of the floods. Maybe they used to just walk out and hunt in the past. Now the aeroplane had to drop off food. These rains were different because we got a lot of rain coming over a long period of time. Kanpi-Nyapari had big rains and flooding like this about 18 years ago. There was more rain and water than ever this time, water was coming down the creeks and standing in pools all over the land. It was very dry for a long time before that – it is good now. Camels leave when they have water around. People were scared when the camels came into town, into houses, with the dry. The camels knocked over fences knocked off taps looking for water. There are some important rockholes for men around here. Camels muck up the rockholes and die in them during the dry. We need to clean them out because they fill up, and then fence them with a strong one to keep the camels out. It is no use using ordinary wire, need cable wire. Camels just lean on the fence until they knock it over. Foxes are a big problem because they eat the Warru and the birds. We need fox baiting like they’ve had in other areas to ensure that we have wallabies. There are still some Warru in this part of the Ranges. There is no IPA here, but it is not just the east that has important areas, there is a lot of important biodiversity here too. We know that young people from Amata and Kalka are being paid to go and look for Warru scat. Also, Mimili has been taking school kids out to learn about country. We could do that here too. Malu (red kangaroo) have gone somewhere, but we don’t know where, emus too, anything. They have all been killed – bang bang! I have been thinking – where are they all. Any malu that are around are skinny after the rain, because they eat too much green feed, it is just water. Rabbits also need to be controlled and then the country burned so that new vegetation can grow. Rabbits were knocked back in the 1980s by people putting poison in their burrows. Then about 15 years ago all the rabbits died with disease, but that had a negative impact on local food security, because people were eating them regularly. Now rabbits are coming back again. We try and plant some seedlings but they are very difficult to manage because dogs come and dig them up even when there is wire around them. There was a lot of dust at times when it was very dry, but the people just go into their houses. We have houses now so it is not a problem. There is a lot of vegetation growing at the moment, which could provide a huge amount of fuel for fires when it dries out. There could be a very large, major fire across a vast area without putting fire breaks and other burning to reduce the fuel load. There is a very large area, but controlled burning is occurring across a limited part of it. Most of the burnt areas are linked to hunting grounds rather than for ecological reasons. Some country is still being burnt and just south of here lots of vegetation has come back with the rain. There are no problems with water supply because there are 3 bores. Some mining companies came and drilled without engaging with elders, which is a problem because they might be drilling in important places. There is a problem that Kanpi-Nyapari people don’t receive any general assistance from the APY Lands Council or the State Government, just the police, health and education services. At the same time the community has the most successful business in the APY region, with the Art Centre making over $1 million profit last year. We need a new Toyota to be able to go out and manage country.
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Kalka-Pipalyatjara Community, 23/3/2011, with 7 local men, (initially also with 6 women until they asked to have separate meeting), mostly sitting under the rotunda in the centre of Pipalyatjara, Lena Taylor acted as translator.
There was lots of rain over summer but it is finished now. We had big floods that ran twice, right around the back of the town. Children were riding an old fridge down the river just over there! The floods cut off the town, came through but didn’t cause much damage - just some mosquitoes, but lots of flies. Those floods were unusual, but we always seem to get a big rain around December. During the wet they didn’t have a food truck for four weeks and the mail plane was diverted a number of times because the airstrip was underwater. The airstrip needed to be repaired twice. We need to have the community’s key assets higher than the flood water. Perhaps we could grade tracks with a high point along the middle so the roads don’t turn into pools when it rains forcing drivers wider and wider, and into the surrounding shrub. People got hungry after the rains until they brought food in by helicopter and then plane. This summer’s rain is very unusual but we have had some heavy winter rains before. The Minister has pushed a project to set up big gardens here, such as a quandong plantation, but they haven’t really thought it through. What about issues of water, labour or camels coming in to knock them down. The problem is that she is coming up next week and she’ll see the country all green without many camels around town, and she’ll think that it is all possible, but it is not normally like this. In a few months, once it has dried out, the camels will be back. Camels have been a big issue here during the dry, they knocked down a tank, fences, taps and other infrastructure. Camels take out fences, break everything here, air-conditioners, taps. Nothing much can stop the camels, no fence, and they clean up the quandong. We used to have to chase them out of town every night 2 or 3 years ago. They broke everything! They knocked over the tank, and broke the tent up there (points to the school). In Amata, some people got hurt. The camels bugger up the water, we can’t drink it. They muck around the rockholes. Camels drink all the water up, even up the hill in the rockholes. They only come when it is Christmas time, when it is hot and dry. We are setting up another dam and tanks further away, so that the camels are drawn away from the community, but that is only a temporary solution. Camels and donkeys are not hunted much because of the religious aspects: Mary rode a donkey, the three wise men on camels, etc. We do round up camels occasionally, shoot them feed them to the dogs, sometimes salt meat to give to people. Some people eat camel, good meat. We need to herd them together and transport them. There is good water here from bores, better than in other parts of the country. There is permanent surface water in the Mann ranges behind the town and those rockholes need to be managed. We have 3 rangers that are employed to manage the IPA through APY Land Management. Until now there has only been money for rangers and a Toyota, but now there is money to help with on-ground works for burning, rockhole cleaning, protecting sacred sites etc. The rangers do things like clean out rockholes, control pest plants and animals and patch burn. Last week the rangers worked to clean up a rockhole just to the south here, where a camel had fallen in and died. The land council just worry that everything is legal they don’t help out enough. There is only one vehicle, which makes working on the Lands difficult. There are plenty of Euros in the hills, not many Warru. There are only 2 Warru in the hills behind the town. The Malu have all gone away. You need to travel 70, 80km to find any Malu. There has been a program for Warru at the zoo and they are bringing some out next week. We are trying to pull out the buffel grass, which is making the kangaroos sick. We can’t do the work after serious rain, we have had to wait a week. We need to take into account sacred areas when we are burning, the elders tell the rangers this. We wait until the grass dries off after rain and then we burn it off. When you burn buffel grass it burns the trees because it burns more than other grasses and burns hotter. Normally when you patch burn that wouldn’t happen, but with buffel grass the flames go up to the top of the shelter (about 4m). Buffel grass is pushing into Spinifex country and where it spears, you see, no other plants grow. There is too much to control, especially around here. It comes from Africa! New types of fires could happen, big, hot fires because it burns so big. There have been some big fires in the past from lightening, the trees burn and everything but you can’t control them. We used to control burn more in the past. There are no cattle here – Amata had a successful business with grass fed beef, and further east they have cattle as well. There were no big dust storms here, just little ones.
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No-one is living out on the homelands anymore. Most homelands are not permanently used now. People want to live in a big community, rather than at their homelands. The main thing is that they want their children to go to school. Maybe some old people want to stay out at the homelands, but they are building new homes in the community now. There is a big nickel/copper mine being developed just over the border in WA, with an estimated 46 year lifespan. The mining company is talking about putting in a bitumen airstrip and maybe a bitumen road through to Marla and the train line, so they can ship the ore to Darwin. The mine will change the community as more people come in. The mining company is going to sink bores but a long way away. They are testing for water at the moment. We need to work across borders, across traditional borders on the APY Lands, and other country, especially to the west.
Watarru Community, 24/3/2011, with 7 local men, 6 women, in Watarru Community Centre, Lena Taylor acted as translator.
Many species haven’t come back this year with the rains – maybe it’s too wet, that’s my thinking. There were big rains about 20 years ago but not like this. It was not just cyclone Yasi, the rains have just kept on turning around and around and ending up here. You can feel it, it’s like Darwin. Climate is changing, yeh. When there was a lot of rain, the water settled in the low lying areas around town. The store was very expensive and there was no access by road. The shop was nearly empty during the rains, which were really big this year. Most people were up in Kampi when it was very wet, so they had left here and it wasn’t a problem with food. We were cut off due to the rains though, with cars churning up the tracks. A tree fell down in the storm but the community wasn’t too flooded. Normally there is rain around the hot time in December, which makes plants grow, but this was different, it has kept on raining. You can see the camels come into the clay pans and walk through the mud and churn it up, so they don’t grow anything when it dries out. The camels are not here now, they have moved out with the rain. You see the camels on the roads. We shut the taps off and shut the gates and put water drums further out of town, so that they don’t come into the community. We had to protect the airstrip from the camels as well when it was dry, but they have gone away now it is wet. There used to be quandongs out in the sandhills, but the camels ate them all and killed the trees. There were just seeds on the ground. When it was dry there were only small dust storms here, maybe because we have lots of vegetation. Some places were very dry before but now it is good. There was very little bushfood before but now there is a lot with the rain. We preserve some bushfood like quandong during good times, so that we can use it later. We are looking everywhere for bushfood but we don’t notice everything. We try and go out when it is wet and there is bushfood, but we can’t access it because the roads are so bad. We have to go off-road and we get flat tyres. We had a long dry but it is better now, all the rockholes have filled up. Animals come back and we see their tracks – emu, turkey, goanna, Euro up in the hills. The Tjakura lizard goes deep into the ground when there is a lot of water, and they come out when the sun comes out. They dig burrows. They leave the old burrows and build new ones so that there is an entry and an exit. They are all underground because of the rains. Normally lizards hide over winter, but they come out in September, with the quandong fruit. But when the storms came they went underground again with the rain. In the past, someone came from NSW and talked with the women about Tjakaru, and then went away. He pretended that he was the expert on the lizards and that he held the intellectual property on their ecology. But when he wanted to come back with another group, the Traditional Owners said no, because he had not honoured their culture. This is a big problem. There is much more bushfood now after the rain. The budgerigars, cockatoos, many birds come back after the rains – there is a lot of food. Other areas might not have animals like we have here. The Malu get skinny because they eat the green plants, but the Euro are fat. There is lots of water up in the hills. You won’t see any kangaroos within 30km of town. The malu like the mulga country, you always see them there. The buffel grass grew up after the rain and there are a lot more flies. The buffel grass used to make the camel sick but the cattle got used to them. The buffel grass are mostly along the roads – they don’t seem to push in too far because the animals don’t seem to want to eat them. Camels chose to eat other plants. The buffel grass is the worst thing – is there anything we can do about it? We try and control the buffel grass,
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which is a big problem. It is all around here. We try and burn it, but it keeps coming back, we dig but it keeps coming. There is a new fire risk around communities with a lot of buffel grass through the town. We need help to deal with this. It could be a good project to focus on buffel grass here, to stop it spreading south, to map it, control it. People think the burning was for ecological reasons. Some of it was to flush out game as people travelled through, but a lot of it was to signal that you were passing through country to the traditional owners. You would light a fire, sit and wait until the Traditional owner arrived to give you permission to pass through his country, with access to water, bushfood etc. Otherwise you might be doing something bad. Still it had the effect of having a positive contribution to biodiversity. Now, because people aren’t walking country in the same way, the need to burn is just not there. Some people are burning to try and create green feed for Malu. We clean dirt out of rockholes so they can hold water when it rains. Mostly we wait until they are dry and then dig them out. Camels muck up the rockholes, some get stuck. There are plenty of rockholes that the old people knew of and used to manage, which aren’t managed now. We just manage the rockholes near the roads. We are aware that there have been arguments between APY Land Management and the AW NRM Board – we are happy that there are not arguments now, because our work dropped down a bit. We are wanting to work, there is so much work to do now. We would like the young people to go out but they need to be paid for the work that they do. The money for the Watarru IPA has been sitting for 5 years in Umuwa, but the APY Land Management won’t release it because they haven’t heard back from the Watarru managers. The Watarru people have been waiting on the money for 5 years. It has caused conflict, people aren’t working and they can’t feed their families or look after country. They wouldn’t give the money for the water tanks for the kangaroos. The Kuka Kanyini (DENR) program has set up tank watering points for animals down south, for malu, emu, other animals. People don’t have cars or money to run them, so they can’t go out and monitor country, manage problems. The money comes from Canberra to the APY Land Management, but they won’t give it to Watarru – this is no good, the money must go the community. We have worked for APY Land Management but we didn’t get paid, so we won’t worry about working for them again. We need for Land Management and Kuka Kanyani to sort things out so that when they ask for things, they can be dealt with. There is a big problem in the communities that there is a lot of work but there is no money. People want to work but there is no money, the IPA can only ever cover casual wages so they can’t employ rangers. We are being strong by staying in the Grandfathers’ and Grandmothers’ land, we will be strong, but we need some money, we all have grandchildren to feed and food is expensive. The money story for the IPAs is a problem. When all the 5 IPAs are up and running, there will be 3 managers who will oversee them all, and there will be no other full time positions. Can’t we have some Anangu in those full-time positions? Are there any trainee-positions available for Anangu? There has to be some effort to put local people in these positions. There hasn’t been any effort to train Anangu for the IPA positions. One of the most important points may simply making people aware of waste. People just leave taps on because they don’t have to pay for it, or leave lights and air-conditioning on all the time when they are not at home. Climate change adaptation may involve and increased understanding of environmental issues beyond land. Even land knowledge could be being lost very quickly. To manage country Traditional ecological knowledge must continue to be a living knowledge that must be invested in. The old people already tell the young one’s things and they write it down. You might be interested in plants and animals, and you might be interested in climate, but out here people come first and they must be the focus of programs. We want to have a ranger here. There is big work here and we are never going to do it all. We have big families and people always want to go to the store.
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Appendix 3: Glossary
Act (the). In this document, refers to The Natural Resources Management Act (South Australia) 2004. Adaptation. Action in response to, or anticipation of, climate change to reduce or avoid adverse consequences or to take advantage of beneficial changes. Adaptation is usually distinct from actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (see mitigation). Adaptive capacity. Reflects the capacity of a system to change in a way that makes it better equipped to deal with external influences via either autonomous or planned adaptation. Adaptive management. A systematic process for continually improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of operational programs. Advection. The transfer of a property of the atmosphere, such as heat, cold, or humidity, by the horizontal movement of an air mass. Aeolian. Processes pertaining to the action of the wind in shaping landscapes. AGO. Australian Greenhouse Office. Alluvial material. Loose soil or sediment that has been eroded, deposited or re-shaped by water in a non- marine setting. Anthropogenic. Caused or produced by humans. APY. Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yakunytjatjara AW. Alinytjara Wilurara Biodiversity (biological diversity). The variety of life forms: the different life forms including plants, animals and micro-organisms, the genes they contain and the ecosystems they form. It is usually considered at three levels — genetic diversity, species diversity and ecosystem diversity. Biosecurity. The protection of the economy, environment and public health from native impacts associated with pest animals, plants and diseases. BOM. Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Catchment. A catchment is that area of land determined by topographic features within which rainfall will contribute to runoff at a particular point. Climate change. A change in climate, which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity, which alters the composition of the global atmosphere, and is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. Climate projection. A projection of the response of the climate system to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate models. Climate projections are distinguished from climate predictions by the more substantial degree of uncertainty in the underlying assumptions e.g. regarding how future technological and economic trends may affect emissions. Community. All South Australians including institutions and organizations.
CO2. Carbon dioxide. Contiguous. In close proximity, or adjacent in time. CSIRO. Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation. Cumulative effects. The combined impacts of activities and resource uses within an area and over time. Decile. Any of the nine values that divide the sorted data into ten equal parts, so that each part represents 1/10 of the sample or population. Decile 1 rainfall denotes average rainfall during those 10% of years which receive the lowest rainfall on record at the site. DEH. Department for Environment and Heritage. Government of South Australia (now the Department of Environment and Natural Resources). DENR. Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Government of South Australia. Desertification. The UN defines desertification as "land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities".
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Dryland. The UNCCD defines drylands as areas of land, including arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas (other than polar and sub-polar regions) in which the ratio of average annual precipitation to average annual potential evapotranspiration ranges from 0.05–0.65. Areas where the ratio is less than 0.05 are hyper-arid zones. Areas where the ratio is greater than 0.65 are humid zones. DWLBC. Department of Water, Land and Biodiversity Conservation, Government of South Australia (now mostly part of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources).. Ecological integrity. A measure of an ecosystems’ functional (process) intactness and ability after a disturbance to a stable state. Ecological processes. Dynamic interactions among and between biotic and abiotic components of the biosphere.. Ecological values. The habitats, the natural ecological processes and the biodiversity of ecosystems. Ecologically sustainable development. Using, conserving and enhancing the community’s resources so that ecological processes, on which life depends, are maintained, and the total quality of life, now and in the future, can be increased. Ecology. The study of the relationships between living organisms and their environment. Ecosystem. A dynamic complex of plant, animal, fungal and microorganism communities and the associated non-living environment interacting as a functional unit. Ecosystem Services. The full suite of benefits that human populations gain from a particular type of ecosystem, such as maintenance of climates; provision of clean water and air; pollination of crops and native vegetation; fulfillment of people's cultural, recreational, spiritual, intellectual needs; and provision of options for the future, for example though maintaining biodiversity. Ecotone. A region of mixed communities of species on the boundary between separate ecosystems. Effluent. Domestic wastewater and industrial wastewater. Enhanced greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect is the process where gases in the lower atmosphere such as carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour are warmed by radiation released by the Earth's surface after it has been warmed by solar energy. These gases then radiate heat back towards the ground - adding to the heat the ground receives from the Sun. The effect of naturally occurring greenhouse gases keeps the Earth 33oC warmer than it would otherwise be. The enhanced greenhouse effect refers to increases in the Earth's atmospheric temperatures as a result of increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases due to human activities. ENSO. El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation - a quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years. During an El Niño event, the prevailing tradewinds weaken and the equatorial countercurrent strengthens, causing warm surface waters in the Indonesian area to flow eastward to overlie the cold water current near Peru. This event has great impact on the wind, sea surface temperature, and precipitation patterns in the tropical Pacific. It has climatic effects throughout the Pacific region and in many other parts of the world. The opposite of an El Niño event is called La Niña. Environmental flow. Any managed change in a river or watercourse's flow pattern intended to maintain or improve the health of the river or watercourse. Ephemeral. Short-lived or seasonal. Erosion. Natural breakdown and movement of soil and rock by water, wind or ice. The process may be accelerated by human activities. Eutrophication. Degradation of water quality due to enrichment by nutrients (primarily nitrogen and phosphorus), causing excessive plant growth and decay. Evapotranspiration. The total loss of water as a result of transpiration from plants and evaporation from land, and surface waterbodies. Exotic species. A non-native species. Exposure. Relates to the important weather events, stimuli and patterns that impact on a system, and broader influences such as the background climate conditions against which a system operates and any changes in those conditions. Exposure is influenced by a combination of the probability and magnitude of climate change. Ex situ. Off-site (compare with in situ).
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Extreme event. Weather conditions that are rare for a particular place and/or time such as an intense storm or heat wave. Fire regime. The intensity, frequency, extent and season of fire in the landscape. Food security. A situation in which people secure access to sufficient amounts of safe, nutritious and culturally appropriate food for normal growth, development, and an active and healthy life. Fragmentation. The division or separation of natural areas by the clearance of native vegetation for human land uses, isolating remnants and species and affecting genetic flow. Geomorphology. The scientific study of landforms and the processes that shape them. Governance. The act or system of governing. Greenhouse effect. The balance of incoming and outgoing solar radiation which regulates our climate. Changes to the composition of the atmosphere such as the addition of carbon dioxide through human activities, have the potential to alter the radiation balance and to effect changes to the climate. Scientists suggest that changes would include global warming, a rise in sea level and shifts in rainfall patterns. Greenhouse gas emissions. The release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. A greenhouse gas is an atmospheric gas that absorbs and emits infrared or heat radiation, giving rise to the greenhouse effect. Groundwater. Water occurring naturally below ground level or water pumped, diverted or released into a well for storage underground. Habitat. The natural place or type of site in which an animal or plant, or communities of plants and animals, lives. Halophytic. A plant adapted to living in a saline environment. Hazard. A situation or condition with potential for loss or harm to the community or environment. IBRA. Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia Indigenous species. A species that occurs naturally in a region. In situ. On-site or on location. Integrated natural resource management. A holistic, long-term approach to natural resource management that, while retaining the benefits and efficiencies of sectoral management and associated expertise, also brings together the considerations and expertise of all sectors. Intensive farming. A method of keeping animals in the course of carrying on the business of primary production in which the animals are confined to a small space or area and are usually fed by hand or by mechanical means. Interannual. Refers to cyclical phenomena with periods greater than one year. Invasive species. An animal, plant or pathogen that is a risk to indigenous species, ecosystems and/or agricultural ecosystems and/or human health and safety. IOD. Indian Ocean Dipole - an irregular oscillation of sea-surface temperatures in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then colder than the eastern part of the ocean. IPA. Indigenous Protected Area. IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Irrigation. Watering land by any means for the purpose of growing plants. Landscape. A heterogeneous area of local ecosystems and land uses that is of sufficient size to achieve long-term outcomes in the maintenance and recovery of species or ecological communities, or in the protection and enhancement of ecological and evolutionary processes. Long-term. No strict definition, although in this study normally refers to a period of 10-100 years (see also short-term). Mitigation. An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the anthropogenic forcing of the climate system; it includes strategies to reduce greenhouse gas sources and emissions, as well as enhancing greenhouse gas sinks. Also used more generally in this report to infer a reduction in risk. Modelling. Use of mathematical equations to simulate and predict real events and processes.
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Morphology. In biology, a branch of bioscience dealing with the study of the form and structure of organisms and their specific structural features. Monsoon. A tropical and sub-tropical seasonal reversal in both surface winds and associated precipitation Mosaic. A diverse pattern of small elements which combine together to make a coherent whole. Natural Resources. Soil; water resources; geological features and landscapes; native vegetation, native animals and other native organisms; ecosystems. Natural Resources Management (NRM). All activities that involve the use or development of natural resources and/or that impact on the state and condition of natural resources, whether positively or negatively. NatureLinks. A biodiversity conservation concept and program of the South Australian Government that promotes ecological restoration at broad landscape scales through community partnerships. Niche. A position or role taken by a kind of organism/species within its community/environment. ‘No regrets’ approach. Aan approach that has other net benefits (or at least no net costs) besides adapting to climate change, limiting greenhouse gas emissions or conserving or enhancing greenhouse gas sinks. Non-linear process. A process in which there is no simple linear proportional relationship between cause and effect. Such processes may involve thresholds or tipping points. NT. Northern Territory. Occluded. Stopped, closed, or obstructed. Paleo-. Ancient or prehistoric. Pasture. Grassland used for the production of grazing animals such as sheep and cattle. Pastoralism. The branch of agriculture concerned with the raising of livestock, usually on open range. Peak oil. The point of maximum production of world oil reserves, after which production inexorably declines due to fundamental physical resource limitations. Perched aquifer. An aquifer that occurs above the regional water table. Peri-urban. Areas around the edge or fringe of urban areas. Phenology. The study of periodic plant and animal life cycle events and how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual variations in climate. Physiology. The study of the function of living systems. PIRSA. (Department of) Primary Industries and Resources South Australia. Positivist. A doctrine or ideological position that states that the only authentic knowledge is scientific knowledge, and that such knowledge can only come from positive affirmation of theories through strict scientific method, refusing every form of metaphysics. Precautionary principle. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible environmental damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing measures to prevent environmental degradation. Precipitation. The condensation of atmospheric water vapour by gravity, in the form of rain, snow, drizzle, etc. Prescribed water resource. A water resource declared by the Governor to be prescribed under the Act, and includes underground water to which access is obtained by prescribed wells. Prescription of a water resource requires that future management of the resource be regulated via a licensing system. Projection. See 'Climate projection' Propagule. A vegetative structure that can become detached from a plant and give rise to a new plant, e.g., a bud, stem-section, sucker, seed or spore. Rangelands. Land that naturally produces forage plants suitable for grazing but where rainfall is too low or erratic for growing crops. Reductionism. A philosophical position that holds that a complex system is nothing but the sum of its parts, and that an account of it can be reduced to accounts of individual constituents. Refugia. Areas in which species persist by range reduction to micro-habitats that retain the necessary niche and habitat requirements.
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Regional NRM Board. A body established under Chapter 3 Part 3 and includes a body appointed under that Part to be a regional NRM board under The Natural Resources Management Act (South Australia) 2004. Relictual. A remnant or surviving species from the past.Reserve area. An area of land and/or sea especially dedicated to the protection and maintenance of native biodiversity, and associated natural and cultural resources, that is managed through legal or other effective means. Resilience. The ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change. Rhizome. A horizontal underground stem of some plants that sends out roots and shoots from its nodes Riparian zone. That part of the landscape adjacent to a water body, that influences and is influenced by watercourse processes. This can include landform, hydrological or vegetation definitions. It is commonly used to include the in-stream habitats, bed, banks and sometimes floodplains of watercourses. Risk. A probalistic measure of the consequence of a threat acting on an asset, typically expressed as a product of likelihood and consequence. Risk can also be a measure of the probability of management actions not delivering the desired outputs and outcomes. Runoff. That part of the precipitation that does not evaporate and is not transpired. SA. South Australia. SAM. Southern Annular Mode - a north-south movement in the belt of strong westerly winds across the south of Australia that varies over periods of weeks or months. Seif dune. A sand dune that elongates parallel to the prevailing wind. Sensitivity. Reflects the responsiveness of systems to climatic influences and the degree to which changes in climate might affect it in its current form; the threshold points at which affects will be exhibited, whether change will occur in trends or steps and whether they will be reversible. Short-term. No strict definition, although in this study normally refers to a period of 0-10 years (see also long- term). Steppe. Dry grass-plains. Stochastic. Random, randomly-determined. Stormwater. Runoff in an urban area. Storm surge. A rapid rise of coastal water level accompanying the onshore arrival of a cyclone. Succession. In ecology, refers to the more or less predictable and orderly changes in the composition or structure of an ecological community. Surface water. Water flowing over land or collected in a dam or reservoir. Sustainable (Sustainability). Comprises the use, conservation, development and enhancement of natural resources in a way, and at a rate, that will enable people and communities to provide for their economic, social and physical well-being while: sustaining the potential of natural resources to meet the reasonably foreseeable needs of future generations and safeguarding the life-supporting capacities of natural resources and avoiding, remedying or mitigating any adverse effects of activities on natural resources. Teleconnection. In atmospheric science refers to climate anomalies being related to each other at large distances (typically thousands of kilometers). Threshold. A point at which the impacts of climate change are so severe or so regular that the inherent resilience of socio-ecological systems is breached, or in situ adaptation options fail, leading to fundamental systemic change (see also tipping point). Tipping point. The level of magnitude of a system process at which sudden or rapid change occurs. A point or level at which new properties emerge in an ecological, economic or other system, invalidating predictions based on mathematical relationships that apply at lower levels Topography. The terrain or surface features of a landscape. Troglobite. An organism that lives entirely in the dark parts of caves. Troglophile. An organism that is able to live in caves. UNCCD. (The) United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification.
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Uncertainty. An expression of the degree to which a value (e.g., the future state of the climate system) is unknown. Vulnerability. The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. WA. Western Australia. Water allocation plan. A plan developed to manage prescribed water resources through providing a system for the allocation and transfer of water via water licences at a sustainable rate of use that establishes an equitable balance between environmental, social and economic needs for the water. Water allocation plans may also set up rules to regulate water affecting activities such as the drilling of wells and construction of dams through permits. Water-dependent ecosystems. Those parts of the environment, the species composition and natural ecological processes, which are determined by the permanent or temporary presence of flowing or standing water, above or below ground. The in-stream areas of rivers, riparian vegetation, springs, wetlands, floodplains, estuaries and lakes are all water-dependent ecosystems. Wetlands. An area that comprises land that is permanently or periodically inundated with water. Xerophyte. A plant which is able to survive in an environment with little available water or moisture, such as in a desert.
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Appendix 4: Example Projects Suggested Example Climate Projects
Project 1 : Climate science and monitoring change
This project would aim to provide more detailed scientific information on the climate of the AW NRM region and assist to detail trends in climate change across the region. Currently there is very little data available from weather monitoring stations within the region, and the data that is available is not necessarily of high quality. That situation could be rectified by establishing weather stations within communities, and by negotiating with the Bureau of Meteorology to fill the very large gap in their Australian high-quality data weather stations across semi-arid SA.
Actions
Invest in more weather stations across all communities, potentially linked to community centres. Discuss opportunities with the Bureau of Meteorology to invest in high-quality weather stations in the APY Lands and along the Yalata Coast. Collate and monitor data to understand and raise awareness of climate impacts and trends.
Outcomes
Weather stations in key areas across the AW NRM region. More comprehensive climate data set to inform management and planning.
Project 2 : Integrating climate knowledge
This project would aim to better integrate traditional Anangu climate knowledge with scientific information to facilitate discussions and planning in relation to climate change. Prober et al. (2011) outline an approach associated with the use of traditional seasonal knowledge to facilitate a joint understanding of the perception of weather and climate. An alternative approach may wish to use art and traditional representations of the landscape to facilitate discussions regarding changes that are observed or projected. It is beyond the scope of this project to articulate how such a project might work in detail, because it needs to be developed between stakeholders, but approaches that generate synergies in understandings of climate and its importance for country could guide better approaches to management.
Actions
Undertake a study that comprehensively reviews how traditional climate knowledge could be integrated with scientific climate information. Study and collate traditional knowledge, represent that knowledge in appropriate forms such as local language, pictures and/or art to facilitate discussion of local climate and climate change.
Outcomes
Detailed reviews of local Anangu understanding of local climate Resources to facilitate discussion of climate and change
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Bridges between traditional and scientific knowledge that could be used to plan strategic approaches to managing climate change in particular, and country in general.
Suggested Example Water Projects
Project 1 : Flood Mapping
This project would examine projected flood intensities in the AW NRM region as a result of climate change. Areas which would be affected based on projections would be mapped, particularly in the North (subregions 7, 8 & 9 in Figure 2), to identify specific risks to communities such as Pipalyatjara, Ernabella and Fregon that are situated adjacent to river beds. Key assets could, over time, be moved strategically away from identified high flood-risk areas based on such improved information.
Actions
Develop a fine-scale model of flood dynamics for catchments in the North that incorporates a range of climate scenarios, allowing predictions to be made about future flood return frequencies and intensities. Map results of modelling to determine areas of projected high flood intensity in relation to Anangu communities and key assets.
Outcomes
Maps of range of predicted flood intensities showing overlap with key assets and infrastructure. Facilitation of a planned retreat policy, which gradually shifts vulnerable assets into less flood-prone areas, reducing costly replacements of infrastructure due to flood damage.
Project 2 : Monitoring of Surface and Groundwater Resources
Data on water resources in the AW NRM region are scarce, yet are essential for monitoring trends in water quality and quantity in response to climate change. Priority should be given to measuring flows of ephemeral streams and establishing groundwater level monitoring stations away from pumping centres to ensure that they are unaffected by short-term draw-downs in groundwater. The data from these types of monitoring activities could then be used to improve water balance modelling of the region, and help predict likely outcomes as climate change progresses.
Actions
Establish flow measuring stations on primary ephemeral streams, particularly in the North where runoff is greater. Establish groundwater level monitoring stations throughout the AW NRM region (located away from extraction points). Establish flow meters on primary bore pumps which service community needs to monitor groundwater extraction rates. Establish a central data collection, monitoring and assessment point which can regularly and consistently record and analyse data from monitoring stations.
Outcomes
Ongoing and consistent data on stream-flow and groundwater levels, which can inform water balance models and more accurately predict impacts of future climate change on water
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resources, as well as monitoring fluctuations in groundwater levels in relation to utilisation by communities and mining.
Project 3 : Focus Management on Long-lived Surface waters
This project could work closely with Traditional Owners to identify and map the permanence of surface waters within the AW NRM region, in order to focus management on the areas of greatest longevity, particularly in the South (subregions 2-5 in Figure 2) where the drying trend is predicted to be greater. Management activities at these identified sites could include protection of waters from feral animals, and supplementing natural watering points with captured rainwater (either from built roofs or runoff) for native animals.
Actions
Identify and categorise various surface waters in the AW NRM region, according to key attributes such as salinity, permanency, catchment area, importance for animal habitat and source (either groundwater or runoff-fed) . Prioritise management activities around the more valuable surface water bodies, which could include fencing off areas from feral animals such as camels and donkeys, and providing supplementary sources of water for native animals during dryer periods.
Outcomes
Maps of surface water permanency, highlighting priority protection areas Establishment of fences to exclude feral animals, and provision of supplementary water sources located around high priority surface waters. Improved resilience of managed surface waters, to allow those assets to act as a buffer against climate variability and change.
Suggested Example Biodiversity Projects
Project 1 : Climate knowledge and biodiversity indicators
This project would examine the relationship in the AW NRM region between climate and a range of key biodiversity that could be used as indicators of the impacts of climate change on local ecosystems. The project would wish to examine how climate variability, trends and extremes, particularly in rainfall and its relationship with phase shifts in rangeland condition. Example species could be investigated for the different sub-regions identified in Figure 2, such that these systems and/or species could be regularly monitored against climatic conditions. It would be important to identify some climate sensitive species, some threatened species and some species that would be expected to not show significant population density responses to stochastic rainfall events. Ongoing monitoring of selected indicator systems and species would guide monitoring of rangeland condition.
Actions
Develop studies that investigate the relationship between biodiversity and climate across the sub-regions of the AW NRM region
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Regular ongoing monitoring of indicator systems and species would be undertaken, perhaps at annual or 5 year intervals to determine if trends in biodiversity can be related to climatic conditions.
Outcomes
Monitoring of indicator systems and/or species would suggest climate triggers of ecological condition, trends in biodiversity due to climatic triggers, as well as early evidence of regime shifts that may occur due a combination of management and climate. Biodiversity condition would inform planning and management, including triggers for: the establishment of refuges; the strict protection of certain species and/or species types such as run-on dependent-ecosystems; changes to pastoral or hunting activities; and, changes to conservation classifications.
Project 2 : Protecting key biodiversity assets
This project would aim to work with Traditional Owners to identify necessary early management activities to protect key biodiversity assets in areas under threat. It is beyond the scope of the project to identify all of these activities across the region, although a number of important points have been articulated above and in workshop discussion. The project would be strongly influenced by local opinion of regional Anangu communities of appropriate responses to recognised and/or projected threats due to climate change, and would employ participatory approaches for project development and application throughout the region.
Actions
The actions would target necessary management activities as identified by local communities in conjunction with the AW NRM Board, other stakeholders and associated researchers including: fire management; invasive species management; hunting management; surface & groundwater dependent ecosystem protection; watering-point management; grazing-pressure management; and, other key management activities as identified in discussions and workshops. Programs would be developed to work together with all stakeholders to implement activities that train and employ local people to undertake strong management responses to ensure vital biodiversity is protected.
Outcomes
Biodiversity assets would be identified that are of high local value and under threat. Management plans would be developed in a participatory manner that integrates local and traditional knowledge and scientific information, as well as traditional and other governance structures and activities to best manage key assets. Biodiversity, much of which comes under increasing threat with climate change in conjunction with other natural and anthropogenic pressures, would be carefully monitored and managed.
Project 3: Undertake and repeat Biological surveys
The work by Robinson et al. (2003) provides an excellent relevant example of an approach to undertake comprehensive biological surveys that integrates traditional and scientific knowledge.
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Such surveys provide an incredibly valuable resource as well as facilitating excellent exchanges of information and networking of key stakeholders. Participatory ecological research need to be repeated regularly to maintain social capacity, to ensure an ongoing understanding of ecological conditions and to guide decision-making.
Actions
Undertake and repeat biological surveys at appropriate intervals in key areas throughout the region. Link surveys to the goals of policy such as the Federal Caring for Country program and the SA State No Species Loss and NatureLinks programs.
Outcomes
Biodiversity assets would be identified that are of high value and under threat. Trends in biodiversity condition could be understood and responded to. Knowledge would be integrated and local people supported to work with and to be NRM researchers.
Suggested Example Invasive Species Projects
Project 1 : Invasive species knowledge
This project would examine in detail which invasive, exotic species local people are seeing as most deleterious to country and to their communities. Those local perceptions would be compared and contrasted with scientific knowledge to facilitate management projects and to improve community engagement on this issue (see for example Bardsley and Edwards-Jones 2007). The number and extent of impact of invasive exotic species is so widespread that they will be very difficult to reduce in density without a biological control and /or a high commercial or local value placed on the species exploitation. By understanding how people value the invasive species, and looking for opportunities to expand upon those values or create new values, either by supporting the commercial exploitation or provided government incentives to improve controls, opportunities to over-exploit the local resource could be facilitated.
Actions
Undertake social research to discuss the roles and impacts of invasive exotic species Compare the perceived risks and opportunities associated with invasive exotic species with scientific information on the same species Identify gaps in understanding as well as clear challenges as understood by all stakeholders to guide management
Outcomes
Fundamental improvement in knowledge of the roles and impacts of invasive exotic species Synthesis of local and scientific knowledge on the roles and risks of invasive species Gap and overlap analyses to guide planning and management.
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Project 2 : (Over)exploit what you have got: the hunting, harvesting and commercialisation of invasive species
Many invasive exotic species are so widely established that it is difficult to perceive that natural systems will be free of the competitive and predating pressures of invasive species in the near future. While biological controls offer some hope, and have been successful elsewhere, the example species detailed above, Camels and Buffel Grass, are examples of species that need to be exploited by the NRM process.
Actions
Investigate opportunities to exploit invasive exotic species for local and NRM values, as well as the potential for local harvesting and commercialisation. Review current and previous attempts at commercialisation of camel harvesting to learn from examples of successes and failures. Support initiatives to exploit invasive species.
Outcomes
Improve understanding of the role of invasive exotic species in relation to regional and external socio-economic and NRM systems. Develop opportunities for local communities to gain value from species currently considered largely as having negative impacts.
Suggested Example Land Management and Desertification Projects
Project 1 : Incorporate Climate Change into Stock Management Practises
Livestock grazing in the AW NRM region will have to adapt to increasingly variable conditions, which means that stock management will need to closely respond to rangeland condition to avoid degradation. Formalisation of monitoring and regulation of pastoral licences, combined with agreed limits to stocking densities based on seasonal forecasts and de-stocking trigger points, could ensure that tracking of pasture productivity is managed sustainably. If conditions consistently reach de- stocking trigger points, decisions would need to be made about removing livestock from affected areas altogether.
Actions
Work closely with stakeholders to establish formal pastoral licences which are re-enforced by monitoring of stock numbers and penalties for non-compliance. Set agreed limits to stocking densities based on seasonal climate forecasts, and establish mandatory de-stocking trigger points if conditions worsen over the season.
Outcomes
Pastoral licences which regulate the grazing of livestock based on predicted climatic conditions. Improved long-term benefits for pasture productivity and resilience if appropriate stock densities and de-stocking practises are adhered to, compared with potential long-term degradation if stock are not managed to reflect new levels of climate variability.
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Project 2 : Determine, monitor and assess key slow variables and thresholds of desertification processes to determine long term drivers of change
High variability in short-term human and environmental processes mask longer term, “slow” variables which are crucial to understanding change in dryland systems. For example, when looking for indicators of rangeland condition, a slow variable could be soil fertility, compared with the fast variable of available plant biomass that would vary rapidly with available moisture (Reynolds et al. 2007). By identifying and monitoring the slow variables, rather than focussing on assessments that measure day-to-day or seasonal variability, a better understanding of fundamental landscape processes could be gained, allowing predictions of change and guiding long-term adaptation options. Similarly by tracking the thresholds of these slow variables (which may themselves change over time), systems can be managed in a timely manner before thresholds are reached, saving huge costs associated with post-hoc remediation. Given the complexity and uncertainty in determining thresholds, the precautionary principle should be applied when making management decisions about rangelands intervention. While outside the scope of NRM, socio-economic slow variables and thresholds can be just as important as biophysical properties, and both interact strongly in determining overall outcomes for rangeland condition.
Actions
Identify and monitor a limited set of biophysical slow variables (e.g. soil fertility, perennial shrub encroachment) and corresponding thresholds to develop an integrated description of landscape health, which would help to guide adaptation to change in a proactive and timely manner. Key variables and thresholds may differ for different regions and subregions of the AW NRM.
Outcomes
A more integrated understanding of coupled human-environment dynamics, with a greater ability to predict impacts and respond to trends in condition, rather than just variability. A formalised and consistent framework for assessing landscape health and for observing change over time. Limit costs associated with trying to fix a system after thresholds have been breached.
Suggested Example Coastal Projects
Project 1 : Monitor Dune Movement and Cliff Retreat
The outcomes of climate change impacts due to sea level rise on coastal sections of the AW NRM region remain uncertain at present, both due to a lack of historical data and uncertainty in coastal processes and the local responses to sea level rise and wave action. Continuing monitoring of dune movement and erosion, and cliff retreat/collapse by a combination of local surveys and aerial photography would help to determine trends in erosion/deposition processes as climate change progresses. This would also help in identifying areas of conservation importance, or areas which are vulnerable and unstable.
Actions Establish a regular on-ground and aerial survey of the Bunda Cliffs and dune systems along the AW NRM coastline to determine rates of retreat or erosion/deposition.
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Outcomes Data on rates of cliff retreat and dune erosion/deposition Identification of vulnerable areas or areas of high conservation priority Development of more accurate models of coastal processes, with the ability to predict likely outcomes of sea level rise.
Project 2 : Establish retreat zones for coastal retreat
While development does not constrain landward migration of salt-marsh ecosystems along the AW NRM coastline as much as in other parts of the State, the need for future coastal retreat in-land needs to be considered. Given the range of sea level rise predictions, it is important to develop maps of areas of likely coastal inundation, in order to protect land from future development and, for example, to allow salt-marsh ecosystems to migrate inland as sea levels rise. Such maps would also help to identify the risk to any built infrastructure, and allow for a planned retreat policy to be implemented for any development that is at high risk of inundation.
Actions
Develop or access a digital elevation model (DEM) to assess the impacts of a range of possible sea level rise on the AW NRM coastline. From this model, designate conservation areas to allow for landward migration of developments and salt-marsh ecosystems. Adopt a planned retreat policy for any established development or other infrastructure at high risk of inundation as sea levels rise.
Outcomes
Land set aside to act as a buffer for migration of sensitive coastal ecosystems as sea levels rise. Identification of high risk infrastructure, allowing for a planned retreat to protect vulnerable assets.
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References
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