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THE INSTITUTE for QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH in FINANCE® Volume 8

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THE INSTITUTE for QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH in FINANCE® Volume 8 ® "The Q - Group" THE INSTITUTE FOR QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH ® IN FINANCE Founded 1966 -- Over 50 years of Research and Seminars Devoted to the State-of-the-Art in Investment Technology Summary of Proceedings Volume 8 2011 - 2015 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. NO PART OF THIS PUBLICATION MAY BE REPRODUCED, STORED IN A RETRIEVAL SYSTEM, OR TRANSMITTED, IN ANY FORM OR BY ANY MEANS ELECTRONIC, MECHANICAL, PHOTOCOPYING, RECORDING OR OTHERWISE, WITHOUT THE PRIOR WRITTEN PERMISSION OF THE PUBLISHER AND COPYRIGHT OWNER. Published by The Institute for Quantitative Research in Finance, P.O. Box 6194, Church Street Station, New York, NY 10249.6194 Copyright 2017 by The Institute for Quantitative Research in Finance, P.O. Box 6194, Church Street Station, New York, NY 10249.6194 Printed in The United States of America PREFACE TO VOLUME 8 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE TO VOLUME 8 ........................................................................................................ iv Active Asset Management – Alpha .............................................................................................. 1 1. Cross-Firm Information Flows (Spring 2015) 1 Anna Scherbina, Bernd Schlusche 2. Dissecting Factors (Spring 2014) 2 Juhani Linnainmaa 3. The Surprising “Alpha” From Malkiel’s Monkey And Upside-Down Strategies (Fall 2013) 4 Jason Hsu 4. Will My Risk Parity Strategy Outperform? Lisa R Goldberg (Spring 2012) 5 Lisa Goldberg Active Asset Management – Mutual Fund Performance .......................................................... 7 5. Target Date Funds (Fall 2015) 7 Ned Elton, Marty Gruber 6. Patient Capital Outperformance (Spring 2015) 8 Martijn Cremers 7. Do Funds Make More When They Trade More? (Spring 2015) 10 Robert Stambaugh 8. A Sharper Ratio: A General Measure For Ranking Investment Risks (Spring 2015) 11 Kent Smetters 9. Scale And Skill In Active Management (Spring 2014) 13 Lubos Pastor 10. Time-Varying Fund Manager Skill (Fall 2013) 14 Marcin Kacperczyl 11. Does Mutual Fund Size Matters: The Relationship Between Size And Performance (Fall 2012) 16 Edwin J. Elton, Martin J. Gruber 12. Conflicting Family Values In Fund Families (Spring 2011) 17 Utpal Bhattacharya Alternative Investments .............................................................................................................. 18 13. The Investment Performance Of Art And Other Collectibles (Spring 2014) 18 Elroy Dimson 14. Estimating Private Equity Returns From Limited Partner Cash Flows (Spring 2014) 19 Andrew Ang 15. Impact Of Hedge Funds On Asset Markets (Spring 2014) 21 Andrew Patton 16. Global Pricing Of Gold (Spring 2013) 22 Campbell R. Harvey 17. The Cost Of Capital For Alternative Investments (Spring 2013) 24 Erik Stafford v 18. Can Financial Engineering Cure Cancer? A New Approach For Funding Large-Scale Biomedical Innovation (Fall 2012) 26 Andrew Lo 19. Institutional-Quality hedge funds (Fall 2011) 27 David Hsieh 20. The Effect Of Housing On Portfolio Choice (Spring 2011) 28 Raj Chetty 21. Portfolio Choice With Illiquid Assets (Spring 2011) 29 Andrew Ang Banking and Financial Industry ................................................................................................ 31 22. Toward Determining Systemic Importance (Spring 2012) 31 Mark Kritzman 23. Why Bank Equity Is Not Expensive. (Fall 2011) 33 Anat Admati 24. Neglected Risks, Financial Innovation, And Financial Fragility (Spring 2011) 36 Andrei Shleifer 25. Who is doing what to whom on Wall Street and why? (Spring 2011) 38 Charlie Gasparino Behavioral Finance ..................................................................................................................... 39 26. “The Worst, The Best, Ignoring All The Rest: The Rank Effect and Trading Behavior” (2014 Fall) 39 Samuel Hartzmark 27. The Success Equation: Untangling Skill And Luck In Business, Sports And Investing (Fall 2013) 40 Michael Mauboussin 28. Natural Expectations, Economic Fluctuations, And Asset Pricing (Spring 2012) 41 David Laibson 29. New Research In Behavioral Finance (Spring 2012) 43 Nicholas Barberis Economics .................................................................................................................................... 45 30. The College Earnings Premium, The Higher Ed Scorecard, And Student “Sorting”: Myths, Realities And Explanations (Fall 2015) 45 Eleanor Dillon 31. Deflation Risk (Fall 2015) 47 Francis Longstaff 32. Systematic Risk And The Macroeconomy: An Empirical Evaluation (Fall 2015) 49 Bryan Kelly 33. Why Global Demographics Matters For Macro-Finance, Asset Pricing, Portfolios and Pensions (Fall 2014) 50 Amlan Roy 34. “The Financial Crisis Six Years On: What Have We Learned” (Fall 2014) 52 Jeremy Siegel 35. The Economics of Big Time College Sports (Spring 2014) 54 Roger Noll 36. Housing And The Macro Economy (Spring 2013) 56 vi Karl Case 37. Are We Headed For A Demographic Winter? (Fall 2012) 57 Joel Kotkin 38. Hurricane Outlook for the 21st Century. (Spring 2012) 57 Hugh E. Willoughby 39. Investment for Effect: Design for Undersea Warfare in the 21st Century (Fall 2011) 58 Rear Admiral Micheal Yuring 40. Demography Changes, Financial Markets And The Economy (Fall 2011) 59 Robert D Arnott Factor Models .............................................................................................................................. 61 41. Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing With Individual Stocks: Betas VS. Characteristics (Fall 2015) 61 Tarun Chordia 42. Betting Against Beta Or Demand For Lottery? (Spring 2015) 64 Scott Murray 43. The Recognition Of One Of Our Most Valued Members (Spring 2015) 66 Jack Treynor 44. “Risky Value” (Fall 2014) 67 Scott Richardson 45. The Not So Well-Known Three-and-One-Half Factor Model (Spring 2014) 69 Steven Thorley 46. A Model of Momentum (Spring 2014) 71 Lu Zhang 47. Horizon Pricing (Spring 2013) 72 Robert Korajczyk 48. Dynamic Conditional Beta (Spring 2013) 73 Robert Engle 49. Momentum Crashes (Fall 2012) 75 Kent Daniel 50. Speculative Betas (Fall 2012) 77 Harrison Hong 51. Revisiting exotic beta (Fall 2011) 78 Mark Carhart 52. Betting against beta (Fall 2011) 80 Andrea Frazzini Fixed Income, Bonds, and Interest Rates ................................................................................. 81 53. The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present And Future (Fall 2015) 81 Ken West 54. The Return On Your Money Or The Return Of Your Money: Investing When Bond Yields Are Negative (Fall 2015) 83 Vineer Bhansali 55. On The Fundamental Relation Between Equity Returns And Interest Rates (Spring 2015) 85 Robert Whitelaw 56. Central Bank Policy Impacts On The Distribution Of Future Interest Rates (Fall 2013) 86 vii Douglas Breeden 57. Duration Targeting: A New Look At Bond Portfolios (Spring 2013) 87 Martin Leibowitz, Stanley Kogelman International Finance ................................................................................................................. 88 58. The International CAPM Redux (Spring 2015) 88 Adrien Verdelhan 59. PPP and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Online Data in Seven Countries (Spring 2015) 90 Alberto Cavallo 60. Is The World Stock Market Co-Movement Changing? (Fall 2015) 91 N. K. Chidambaran 61. Global Crises And Equity Market Contagion (Spring 2012) 93 Geert Bekaert 62. The International Monetary System: Living With Asymmetry (Fall 2011) 95 Maurice Obstfeld Investor Sentiment ...................................................................................................................... 96 63. The Behavior Of Sentiment-Induced Share Returns: Measurement When Fundamentals Are Observable (Spring 2015) 96 Ian Cooper 64. Investor Sentiment Aligned: A Powerful Predictor of Stock Returns (2014 spring) 98 Guofu Zhou 65. Bubbling with excitement: an experiment. (Spring 2012) 99 Terrance Odean Passive Asset Management ....................................................................................................... 101 66. The Mutual Fund Industry Worldwide: Explicit An Closet Indexing, Fees, And Performance (Spring 2013) 101 Martijn Cremers Predictability ............................................................................................................................. 102 67. King Of The Mountain: Finding Short-Term Efficacy In The Shiller P/E Ratio (Fall 2015) 102 Rob Arnott 68. Does Academic Research Destroy Stock Return Predictability? (Fall 2014) 104 David McLean 69. The Shiller CAPE Ratio: A New Look (Fall 2013) 106 Jeremy J. Siegel 70. Changing Times, Changing Values: A Historical Analysis Of Sectors Within The U.S. Stock Market 1872-2013 (Fall 2013) 108 Robert J. Shiller 71. Is Economic Growth Good For Investors? (Fall 2013) 111 Jay Ritter 72. Market Expectations in the Cross Section of Present Values (Spring 2013) 112 Bryan Kelly 73. Innovative Efficiency And Stock Returns (Fall 2011) 113 David Hirshleifer 74. The Other Side Of Value: Good Growth And The Gross Profitability Premium (Fall 2011) 115 Robert Novy-Marx viii 75. Share Issuance And Factor Timing (Spring 2011) 116 Robin Greenwood 76. Hard Times (Spring 2011) 118 Christopher Polk 77. Socially Responsible Investing And Expected Stock Returns (Spring 2011) 119 Sudheer Chava Recovery Theory ....................................................................................................................... 121 78. The Recovery Theorem (Spring 2013) 121 Stephen A. Ross Risk and Return: Variance/Volatility, Correlation & Equity Premium ............................. 122 79. How Do Investors Measure Risk? (Fall 2015) 122 Jonathan Berk 80. Monetary
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