ResultsРезультати of surveys Business опитувань of VinnitsaOutlook керівників regionSurvey enterprises підприємств managers м.of КиєваCherni regarding іhiv Київської Oblast their * області щодоbusiness їх ділових expectations очікувань* * Q4 2020 I квартал 2018Q2 2018року
*Надані результати*This survey є відображенням only reflects лише the opinions думки респондентівof respondents – inкерівників Chernihiv підприємствoblast (top managers Вінницької of companies) who were polled in Q4 2020, and does not represent NBU forecasts or estimates області в IІ кварталі 2018 року і не є прогнозами та оцінками Національного банку України.
Business Outlook Survey of Chernihiv Oblast Q4 2020
A survey of companies carried out in Chernihiv oblast in Q4 2020 showed that respondents expected a moderate drop in the output of Ukrainian goods and services and had moderate expectations for the performance of their companies over the next 12 months on the back of a tighter quarantine. Respondents expected inflation to increase. Depreciation expectations were high.
The top managers of companies said they expected that over the next 12 months:
. the output of Ukrainian goods and services would drop: the balance of expectations was (-8.3%) compared with 8.3% in Q3 2020 and (-24.4%) across Ukraine . the growth in prices for consumer goods and services would accelerate: a total of 53.8% of respondents expected that the inflation rate would exceed 7.5% compared to 30.8% in the previous quarter and 50.8% across Ukraine. Respondents referred to production costs and the hryvnia exchange rate as the main inflation drivers (Figure 2) . the domestic currency would depreciate significantly: a total of 84.6% of respondents (compared with 84.6% in the previous quarter and 87.1% across Ukraine) expected the hryvnia to weaken against the US dollar . the financial and economic standings of their companies would remain unchanged: the balance of expectations was 0.0% (as in the previous quarter). Companies across Ukraine expected their financial and economic standings to improve slightly (1.3%) (see Table) . total sales would increase more slowly: the balance of responses was 7.7% compared with 25.0% in Q3 2020. Respondents also expected a further increase in external sales (the balance of responses was 28.6% compared with 25.0% in Q3 2020). Overall, companies across Ukraine expected sales to increase moderately, the balances of responses being 7.1% and 3.8% respectively
. investment in both construction and machinery, equipment and tools would decrease: the balances of responses were (-8.3%) and (-7.7%) respectively compared with 11.1% and 0.0% in the previous quarter. Across Ukraine, the balances of responses were (-4.5%) and 3.8% respectively
. staff numbers would decrease significantly: the balance of responses was (-30.8%) compared with (-16.7%) in Q3 2020 and (-9.9%) across Ukraine
. purchase prices would rise at a faster pace (the balance of responses was 76.9%) than selling prices (the balance of responses was 38.5%) (compared with 76.9% and 53.8% in the previous quarter) (Figure 6). Respondents referred to high energy prices, raw material and supplies prices and wage costs as the main selling price drivers (Figure 7)
. the growth in per-unit production costs and wage costs per staff member would accelerate: the balances of responses were 76.9% and 61.5% respectively (compared with 33.3% and 38.5% in Q3 2020) (Figures 4 and 6). Respondents continued to refer to weak demand as the main drag on the ability of their companies to boost production (61.5% of respondents) (Figure 5). Respondents continued to expect an increase in their borrowing needs in the near future (Figure 8). The respondents who planned to take out loans (50.0% of respondents) always opted for domestic currency loans. Respondents said that bank lending standards had softened (Figure 9). Respondents cited high loan rates as the main factor that deterred them from taking out corporate loans (Figure 10).
A total of 92.3% of respondents said that they had encountered no difficulties in effecting transactions with funds deposited in bank accounts (96.9% across Ukraine).
Assessments of financial and economic standings as of the time of the survey (Figure 3)
. Companies have assessed their current financial and economic standings as bad for five quarters in a row: the balance of responses was (-7.7%) compared with (-23.1%) in Q3 2020 and (-3.2%) across Ukraine. . Stocks of finished goods had decreased and were assessed to be at a level lower than the normal one: the balance of responses was (-11.1%) compared with 12.5% in the previous quarter. . Spare production capacity had decreased. Respondents said they would need additional capacity to meet any unexpected rise in demand: the balance of responses was (-7.7%) compared with 16.7% in Q3 2020.
2 Business Outlook Survey of Chernihiv Oblast Q4 2020
Survey Details1,2
Respondents in terms of business Respondents in terms of main economic Respondents in terms of company size based activities,% activities, % on staff number, %
Other Exporters only 15.4 Large (more Small (up to 50 Neither exporters 15.4 than 250 persons) nor importers 23.1 46.2 Transport and persons) communications 30.8 7.7 Agriculture Wholesale and 38.5 retail trade 7.7 Both exporters and importers Energy and 38.5 water supply 7.7 Mining Medium (from 51 and up Manufacturing 7.7 to 250 persons) 15.4 46.2 . Period: 6 November through 1 December 2020. . A total of 13 companies were polled. . A representative sample was generated on the basis of the agricultural sector.
Business Business Outlook outlook Index index for for Next next 12 12 Months months in in Termsterms of of regions,% Oblasts3, %
Riv ne Oblast Voly n Oblast Chernihiv Oblast 106.9 103.7 Zhy tomyr 92.2 Sumy Oblast Oblast 98.8 106.2 Ky iv and Lv iv Oblast Ky iv Oblast 100.6 Poltav a Oblast Kharkiv Oblast Ternopil Oblast 107.7 95.4 97.2 114.7 Khmelny tskyi Cherkasy Luhansk Oblast Iv ano-Frankivsk Oblast Vinny tsia Oblast Zakarpattia Oblast 89.2 Oblast 98.9 Oblast 105.3 no data 106.5 Donetsk 84 Cherniv tsi Oblast Kirov ohrad Oblast Dnipropetrov sk Oblast Oblast 94.5 79.9 92.5 no data Zaporizhia My kolaiv Oblast Odesa 87.3 Oblast Oblast 102.2 80.8 Kherson Oblast 104.7 minimum 79.9 1 quartile 92.3 1 quarter 2 quartile (median) 98.8 Crimea 2 quarter 3 quartile 105.2 no data 3 quarter maximum 114.7 4 quarter Ukraine 99.6
*a quartile is the v alue of the BOI where an ordered sample is div ided into f our equal-sized subgroups **a median is the v alue of the BOI in the middle of an ordered sampled where the sample is div ided into two equal-sized subgroups
Table. The Business Outlook Index of Companies in Chernihiv Oblast and Its Components
Balances of responses, % Expectations over next 12 months for Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Financial and economic standings 0.0 0.0 -14.3 0.0 0.0
Total sales 7.7 0.0 -15.4 25.0 7.7
Investment in construction 8.3 -15.4 -7.1 11.1 -8.3
Investment in machinery, equipment, and tools 23.1 -14.3 -7.1 0.0 -7.7
Staff numbers -15.4 -28.6 -28.6 -16.7 -30.8
1 This sample was generated in proportion to the contribution of each oblast and each economic activity to Ukraine’s gross value added. 2 Data for totals and components may be subject to rounding effects. 3 The business outlook index (BOI) is an aggregate indicator for expected business performance over the next 12 months. It is calculated using the balances of respondents' responses regarding changes in the financial and economic standings of their companies and future economic activity.
3 Business Outlook Survey of Chernihiv Oblast Q4 2020
Figure 1 Figure 2
Output expectations for next 12 months, Assessment of consumer price drivers, percentage of responses percentage of responses
100 100 0 20 40 60 80 100
80 80 Production costs
60 60
40 40 Exchange rate
20 20 Global prices 0 0
-20 -20 Supply (availability) of money -40 -40 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Budgetary social Output will decrease spending Output will be unchanged Output will increase Balance of expectations (right-hand scale) Household income Q4 20 Q3 20
Tax changes
Figure 3 Figure 4
Companies' economic activity as of the time of the Staff level and wage cost expectations for next 12 survey, balance of responses months, balance of responses 20 80 10 60 0 40 -10 20 -20
0 -30
-20 -40 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 -40 Financial and economic standings Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Finished goods stocks Staff level expectations Wage costs per staff member Unutilized production capacity Figure 5 Figure 6
Assessment of factors that impede output Expectations of producer prices for next 12 growth, percentage of responses months, balance of responses 0 20 40 60 80 100 Weak demand
Political situation 80
Tax burden 60 High raw material and supplies prices Lack of working assets 40
Qualified staff shortages 20 High energy prices
Exchange rate fluctuations 0 Corruption Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Purchase prices Regulatory burden Selling prices Per-unit production costs Limited availability of loan Q4 20 Insufficient production Q3 20 capacity
4 Business Outlook Survey of Chernihiv Oblast Q4 2020
Figure 7 Figure 8
Expectations of borrowing needs and intentions to Assessment of selling price drivers, take out corporate loans in the near future, percentage of responses percentage of responses 0 20 40 60 60 60
Energy prices
Raw material and supplies 45 45 prices
Wage costs 30 30
Domestic competition
15 15 Exchange rate
Global prices 0 0 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Tax burden Percentage of respondents who intend to take out loans, % Q4 20 Q3 20 Borrowing needs (balance of responses, right-hand scale) Demand
Loan rates
Figure 9 Figure 10
Expectations of lending conditions for next 12 Assessment of factors that could deter months, balance of responses* companies from taking out loans, percentage of responses 50 0 20 40 60 80 40
High loan rates 30
20 Collateral requirements 10
0 Other funding sources
-10
-20 Exchange rate fluctuations Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 *The dif f erence between the percentages of responses “tightened” and “eased” Q4 20 Complicated paperwork Q3 20
Uncertainty about ability to meet debt obligations as they fall due
5