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Empire State Manufacturing Survey Note: Survey Responses Were Collected Between August 2 and August 9

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey Note: Survey Responses Were Collected Between August 2 and August 9 August 2021 Empire State Manufacturing Survey Note: Survey responses were collected between August 2 and August 9. Business activity continued to expand to the August survey, but growth 8.9, indicating a modest increase in in Ne w York State, according to was much slower than in July. The employment and hours worked. Both firms responding to the August 2021 general business conditions index fell price indexes remained at or near Empire State Manufacturing Survey, twenty-five points to 18.3. Just over record highs: the prices paid index though growth was significantly one-third of respondents reported held steady at 76.1, while the prices slower than last month’s record-setting that conditions had improved over received index climbed seven points to pace. The headline general business the month, while 16 percent reported 46.0, setting a new record. conditions index fell twenty-five points that conditions had worsened. The to 18.3. New orders increased new orders index fell eighteen points Firms Remain Optimistic modestly, and shipments grew slightly. to 14.8, pointing to a solid increase The index for future business Delivery times continued to lengthen in orders, while the shipments conditions climbed seven points to substantially, and inventories were index tumbled nearly forty points 46.5, pointing to ongoing optimism somewhat higher. Employment and to 4.4, suggesting a slight increase about future conditions. The indexes the average workweek increased in shipments. Unfilled orders rose. for future new orders and shipments modestly. Input prices continued to rise The delivery times index climbed rose to similar levels. Substantial sharply, and the pace16AUG2021 of selling price to 28.3, indicating significantly 10:40increases in employment and prices increases set another record. Looking longer delivery times, as has been are expected in the months ahead. The ahead, firms remained optimistic that the case for the past several months. capital expenditures index was little conditions would improve over the next Inventories edged higher. changed at 23.0, and the technology six months, with substantial increases in spending index held steady at 15.0. ■ employment and prices expected. Selling Price Increase Sets Another Record Growth Slows The index for number of employees Manufacturing activity continued to dipped eight points to 12.8, and the increase in Ne w York State, according average workweek index dropped to General Business Conditions Seasonally Adjusted Diffusion Index 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Note: The shaded areas indicate a period designated a recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Federal Reserve Bank of New York EmpireAugust State Manufacturing 2021 Survey Current Indicators Change from Preceding Month General Business Conditions Percent Reporting 60 Empire State Higher Lower Index 30 0 Jul 50.3 7.3 43.0 -30 Aug 34.5 16.3 18.3 -60 Change -24.7 Manufacturing -90 | | | | | | Survey| 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 New Orders Percent Reporting 50 Higher Lower Index 25 0 Jul 48.3 15.1 33.2 -25 Aug 35.6 20.8 14.8 -50 Change -18.4 -75 | | | | | | | 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Shipments Percent Reporting 50 Higher Lower Index 25 0 Jul 52.8 9.0 43.8 -25 Aug 28.6 24.2 4.4 -50 Change -39.4 -75 | 16AUG2021| | | | | | 10:40 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Unfilled Orders Percent Reporting 30 Higher Lower Index 20 10 Jul 31.3 19.2 12.1 0 Aug 28.3 13.3 15.0 -10 Change 2.9 -20 | | | | | | | 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 General Business Conditions Seasonally Adjusted Delivery Time Percent Reporting 30 Diffusion Index Higher Lower Index 20 60 10 Jul 32.3 12.1 20.2 0 40 Aug 36.3 8.0 28.3 -10 | | | | | | | Change 8.1 20 -20 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 -20 Inventories Percent Reporting 20 Higher Lower Index -40 10 0 Jul 30.3 14.1 16.2 -60 -10 Aug 23.9 17.7 6.2 -80 | -20 | | | | | | | | | Change| | | | | -10.0| 2006 -302007| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |2011 2012| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Note: The shaded areas indicate a period designated a recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Federal FederalReserve Reserve Bank of BankNew Yorkof New YorkAugust 2021 2 EmpireAugust State Manufacturing 2021 Survey Current Indicators,continued Change from Preceding Month Prices Paid Percent Reporting 100 Empire State Higher Lower Index 75 50 Jul 78.8 2.0 76.8 25 Aug 77.0 0.9 76.1 0 Change -0.7 Manufacturing -25 | | | | | | Survey| 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Prices Received Percent Reporting 60 Higher Lower Index 40 Jul 41.4 2.0 39.4 20 Aug 47.8 1.8 46.0 0 Change 6.6 -20 | | | | | | | 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Number of Employees Percent Reporting 60 Higher Lower Index 30 Jul 29.5 8.9 20.6 0 Aug 23.1 10.4 12.8 -30 Change -7.8 -60 | 16AUG2021| | | | | | 10:40 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Average Employee Workweek Percent Reporting 25 Higher Lower Index 0 Jul 21.2 7.2 14.0 -25 Aug 17.8 9.0 8.9 -50 Change -5.1 -75 | | | | | | | 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GeneralNote: Business Data are seasonally Conditions adjusted. Seasonally Adjusted Diffusion Index 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Note: The shaded areas indicate a period designated a recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Federal FederalReserve Reserve Bank of BankNew Yorkof New YorkAugust 2021 3 EmpireAugust State Manufacturing 2021 Survey Forward-Looking Indicators Expectations Six Months Ahead General Business Conditions Percent Reporting 60 Empire State Higher Lower Index 40 Jul 52.8 13.3 39.5 20 Aug 58.9 12.4 46.5 0 Change 7.0 Manufacturing -20 | | | | | | Survey| 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 New Orders Percent Reporting 60 Higher Lower Index 40 Jul 52.9 18.7 34.2 20 Aug 55.6 12.9 42.7 0 Change 8.5 -20 | | | | | | | 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Shipments Percent Reporting 60 Higher Lower Index 40 Jul 55.0 15.7 39.3 20 Aug 56.3 10.4 45.9 0 Change 6.6 -20 | 16AUG2021| | | | | | 10:40 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Unfilled Orders Percent Reporting 30 Higher Lower Index 20 10 Jul 25.3 24.2 1.0 0 Aug 15.9 15.9 0.0 -10 Change -1.0 -20 | | | | | | | 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 General Business Conditions Seasonally Adjusted Delivery Time Percent Reporting 20 Diffusion Index Higher Lower Index 10 60 0 Jul 26.3 21.2 5.1 -10 40 Aug 19.5 18.6 0.9 -20 | | | | | | | Change -4.2 20 -30 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 -20 Inventories Percent Reporting 30 Higher Lower Index -40 20 10 Jul 27.3 18.2 9.1 -60 0 Aug 24.8 16.8 8.0 -80 | -10 | | | | | | | | | Change| | | | | -1.1| 2006 -202007| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |2011 2012| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Note: The shaded areas indicate a period designated a recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Federal FederalReserve Reserve Bank of BankNew Yorkof New YorkAugust 2021 4 EmpireAugust State Manufacturing 2021 Survey Forward-Looking Indicators,continued Expectations Six Months Ahead Prices Paid Percent Reporting 80 Empire State Higher Lower Index 60 40 Jul 71.7 7.1 64.6 20 Aug 69.9 3.5 66.4 0 Change 1.8 Manufacturing -20 | | | | | | Survey| 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Prices Received Percent Reporting 80 Higher Lower Index 60 40 Jul 62.6 5.1 57.6 20 Aug 56.6 4.4 52.2 0 Change -5.4 -20 | | | | | | | 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Number of Employees Percent Reporting 45 Higher Lower Index 30 Jul 50.3 6.4 43.9 15 Aug 44.9 6.4 38.5 0 Change -5.4 -15 | 16AUG2021| | | | | | 10:40 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Average Employee Workweek Percent Reporting 30 Higher Lower Index 20 10 Jul 17.2 14.1 3.0 0 Aug 14.2 11.5 2.7 -10 Change -0.3 -20 | | | | | | | 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 General Business Conditions Seasonally Adjusted Capital Expenditures Percent Reporting 45 Diffusion Index Higher Lower Index 30 60 Jul 38.4 12.1 26.3 15 Aug 34.5 11.5 23.0 40 0 | | | | | | | Change -3.3 20 -15 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 -20 Technology Spending Percent Reporting 30 Higher Lower Index -40 20 10 Jul 23.2 9.1 14.1 -60 0 Aug 22.1 7.1 15.0 -80 | -10 | | | | | | | | | Change| | | | | 0.9| 2006 -202007| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |2011 2012| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Note: The shaded areas indicate a period designated a recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Note: Data are seasonally adjusted. Federal FederalReserve Reserve Bank of BankNew Yorkof New YorkAugust 2021 5.
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