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Booker (Not Covered) and Conclude That It Creates Value 44 20 7888 6531 Financially and Strategically

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Booker (Not Covered) and Conclude That It Creates Value 44 20 7888 6531 Financially and Strategically 30 January 2017 Europe/United Kingdom Equity Research Food Retail Tesco (TSCO.L) Rating UNDERPERFORM Price (27 Jan 17, p) 206.55 ACQUISITION Target price (p) 160.00 Market Cap (£ m) 16,884.7 Enterprise value (£ m) 27,134.1 Adding value… and complexity and risks Target price is for 12 months. Research Analysts ■ A beneficial acquisition. We have analysed Tesco's proposed £3.7bn Stewart McGuire, CFA acquisition of Booker (not covered) and conclude that it creates value 44 20 7888 6531 financially and strategically. The deal is accretive starting in year two, before [email protected] peak synergies are realised and also helps de-lever the balance sheet. The improved multi-channel logistics network will allow Tesco to improve efficiencies, lower food waste and enhance returns along the value chain. ■ New deal, new challenges. Unlike a more straightforward retail transaction (such as Sainsbury/Argos or Ahold/Delhaize), adding wholesale to retail is more complicated: it increases complexity and adds risk. While logistics and sourcing are the basis for the synergies, the differing customer bases and requirements means that integration will require more effort and nuance. Independent stores may be less inclined to buy from the wholesaler that operates the competitor across the street. The way Booker will be managed within Tesco has not yet been defined, nor has the role of Charles Wilson, Booker's well-regarded CEO. ■ Core problems remain. The transaction has almost no impact on Tesco's main problem – an extensive retail network with many large, underperforming stores. Our proprietary work on large-store performance indicates a structural operating margin headwind of 1.1% due to Tesco's store estate. Booker's operating profit will dilute this headwind somewhat, but after reviewing Booker's own store estate, we do not see an obvious need for more space nor a material offering expansion that would drive incremental traffic to Tesco's Extra stores. ■ Valuation. After adding the full value of the synergies to our DCF model on the day of the announcement, we make no further changes to our valuation or our target price. Our rating remains Underperform. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 2/16A 2/17E 2/18E 2/19E 2 5 0 Revenue (£ m) 54,433.0 55,317.0 56,387.4 56,426.2 EBITDA (£ m) 2,193.0 2,520.3 2,533.9 2,764.6 2 0 0 Pre-tax profit adjusted (£ m) 280.00 776.57 840.23 1,090.52 CS EPS (adj.) (p) 3.41 8.60 7.75 10.33 1 5 0 Prev. EPS (p) - - - - Ju l- 1 5 Jan - 1 6 Ju l- 1 6 Jan - 1 7 ROIC (%) 6.7 10.5 9.6 11.7 P/E (adj.) (x) 60.6 24.0 26.7 20.0 T SCO .L FT SE A LL SH A RE IN D EX P/E rel. (%) 356.6 135.9 182.6 149.3 The price relative chart measures performance against the EV/EBITDA (x) 11.2 10.8 10.4 9.3 FTSE ALL SHARE INDEX which closed at 3897.5 on Dividend (02/17E, £) 0.00 Net debt/equity (02/17E,%) 74.1 27/01/17 Dividend yield (02/17E,%) 0.0 Net debt (02/17E, £ m) 4,396.3 On 27/01/17 the spot exchange rate was £.85/Eu 1.- BV/share (02/17E, £) 0.7 IC (02/17E, £ m) 10,329.3 Eu.94/US$1 Free float (%) 99.6 EV/IC (02/17E, (x) 2.6 Performance 1M 3M 12M Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates Absolute (%) 0.1 -4.3 19.1 Relative (%) -0.9 -7.1 2.3 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 30 January 2017 Tesco (TSCO.L) Price (27 Jan 2017): 206.55p; Rating: UNDERPERFORM; Target Price: 160.00p; Analyst: Stewart McGuire Income statement (£ m) 2/16A 2/17E 2/18E 2/19E Company Background Revenue 54,433 55,317 56,387 56,426 Tesco PLC is an international retailer. The principal activity of the EBITDA 2,193 2,520 2,534 2,765 Company is retailing and associated activities in the United Depr. & amort. (1,249) (1,304) (1,246) (1,247) Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland, Thailand, Malaysia, the Czech EBIT 944 1,216 1,288 1,518 Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Net interest exp. (643) (446) (458) (437) Associates (21) 6 10 10 Blue/Grey Sky Scenario PBT 280 777 840 1,091 Income taxes (36) (106) (235) (268) Profit after tax 244 671 606 822 Minorities 6 7 6 -0 Preferred dividends - - - - Associates & other 28 22 19 19 Net profit 278 700 631 841 Other NPAT adjustments (62) (344) (6) 0 Reported net income 216 356 625 841 Cash flow (£ m) 2/16A 2/17E 2/18E 2/19E EBIT 944 1,216 1,288 1,518 Net interest (423) (395) (362) (341) Cash taxes paid 118 (82) (215) (249) Change in working capital (168) 56 388 50 Other cash and non-cash items 1,477 1,228 1,256 1,257 Cash flow from operations 1,948 2,023 2,355 2,234 CAPEX (1,038) (1,310) (1,400) (1,400) Free cashflow to the firm 1,132 771 935 815 Acquisitions - - - - Divestments 3,454 0 0 0 Other investment/(outflows) (3,075) (797) 0 0 Cash flow from investments (659) (2,107) (1,400) (1,400) Net share issue/(repurchase) 1 0 0 0 Dividends paid 0 0 (163) (244) Issuance (retirement) of debt (588) (1,310) (1,300) (677) Our Blue Sky Scenario (p) 261.00 Cashflow from financing (604) (1,310) (1,463) (921) In our blue sky scenario analysis, we model 20% higher EBIT Changes in net cash/debt 3,371 714 772 570 forecasts across FY1e-FY3e. In this scenario, we value Tesco at 20% premium to FY3e P/E multiple implied by current DCF valuation Net debt at start 8,481 5,110 4,396 3,624 and add 32p which represents FY3e excess cash per share in this Change in net debt (3,371) (714) (772) (570) scenario. Net debt at end 5,110 4,396 3,624 3,054 Balance sheet (£ m) 2/16A 2/17E 2/18E 2/19E Our Grey Sky Scenario (p) 129.00 Assets In our grey sky scenario analysis, we model 20% lower EBIT Total current assets 14,828 15,417 14,621 14,501 forecasts across FY1e-FY3e. In this scenario, we value Tesco at Total assets 43,904 45,772 45,130 45,164 FY3e P/E multiple implied by current DCF valuation and add 15p Liabilities which represents FY3e excess cash per share in this scenario. Total current liabilities 19,714 21,279 21,398 21,435 Total liabilities 35,288 39,838 38,753 38,209 Share price performance Total equity and liabilities 43,904 45,771 45,129 45,163 Per share 2/16A 2/17E 2/18E 2/19E No. of shares (wtd avg.) (mn) 8,152 8,145 8,145 8,145 250 CS EPS (adj.) (p) 3.41 8.60 7.75 10.33 225 Dividend (p) 0.00 0.00 2.00 3.00 Free cash flow per share (p) 13.89 9.46 11.48 10.00 200 Key ratios and valuation 2/16A 2/17E 2/18E 2/19E 175 Growth/Margin (%) 150 Sales growth (%) (4.4) 1.6 1.9 0.1 EBIT growth (%) (23.3) 28.8 5.9 17.8 Net income growth (%) (17.3) 151.8 (9.9) 33.4 May- 15 Sep- 15 Jan- 16 May- 16 Sep- 16 Jan- 17 EPS growth (%) (17.7) 152.1 (9.9) 33.4 EBITDA margin (%) 4.0 4.6 4.5 4.9 TSCO.L FTSE ALL SHARE INDEX EBIT margin (%) 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.7 Pretax profit margin (%) 0.5 1.4 1.5 1.9 The price relative chart measures performance against the FTSE ALL SHARE Net income margin (%) 0.5 1.3 1.1 1.5 INDEX which closed at 3897.5 on 27/01/17 Valuation 2/16A 2/17E 2/18E 2/19E On 27/01/17 the spot exchange rate was £.85/Eu 1.- Eu.94/US$1 EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.2 10.8 10.4 9.3 EV/EBIT (x) 26.1 22.3 20.5 17.0 Dividend yield (%) 0.00 0.00 0.97 1.45 P/E (x) 60.6 24.0 26.7 20.0 Credit ratios (%) 2/16A 2/17E 2/18E 2/19E Net debt/equity (%) 59.3 74.1 56.8 43.9 Net debt to EBITDA (x) 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.1 Interest coverage ratio (x) 1.5 2.7 2.8 3.5 Source: FTI, Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse Securities (EUROPE) LTD. Estimates Tesco (TSCO.L)2 30 January 2017 Transaction summary The key terms of the transaction are as follows: ■ Shareholders will receive 0.861 Tesco shares and 42.6p in cash per Booker share; ■ Booker will pay its regular and special dividends this year, and will pay regular dividends until completion; ■ The merger will result in Booker shareholders owning ~16% of the combined group; ■ On completion, Charles Wilson, Booker’s CEO and Stewart Gilliland, Booker’s Chairman, will join the combined group’s Board; ■ Charles Wilson will also join the combined group’s Executive Committee; ■ The merger is subject to regulatory approval and Tesco and Booker shareholder approval.
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