The Journal of Weather Modification
2002 Texas Weather Modification Scientific Management
Seeded Control Simple Ratio Increase Prec. Mass 1439.3 kton 667.4 kton 2.16 (1.89) 116 (89) After modeling the increase dropped to 89 %
Volume 35 April 2003 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION North American Weather Our weather modification Consultants (NAWC) is the services span the full spectrum, world’s longest-standing from a) feasibility studies to b) private weather modification turn-key design, conduct, and company. evaluation of projects to c) total A recognized leader since technology transfer. By 1950, many consider us the combining practical technical world’s premier company in this advances with field-proven dynamic field. We are proud of methods and operational our sterling record and long list of expertise, we provide expert satisfied customers. assistance to water managers and users in the agricultural, governmental, and hydroelectric communities worldwide. together the best-suited We offer ground-based and/or methods, materials, equipment airborne, summer and winter systems and talent to provide operational and research you with the greatest project programs. Additional specialties value. in extreme storm studies, climatic When you put it all together, surveys, air quality, NAWC is the logical choice meteorological observing for high value weather systems, forensic meteorology modification services. Visit our and weather forecasting, broaden website at www.nawcinc.com for our meteorological perspective. more information, and call us at Whatever your weather (801) 942-9005 to discuss your modification needs, we can help. needs. You can also reach us We will tailor a project to your by email: [email protected]. specific circumstances, bringing
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COVER: The cover photograph shows all the components of the 2002 Texas Weather Modification Scientific Program Management, which includes the aircraft fleet, the WSR-78C radar system, the TITAN software and the output from the TITAN package. (See Ruiz-Columbie et al. on page 10.)
PHOTO CREDITS IN THIS ISSUE: Photos of WMA Annual Meeting courtesy Tom Henderson and Andy Detwiler.
EDITED BY: PRINTED BY:
Steven K. Chai, Editor UNR Printing Services, Reno, Nevada USA
Vicki Hall, Editorial Assistant
Division of Atmospheric Sciences Desert Research Institute 2215 Raggio Parkway Reno, Nevada 89512-1095 U.S.A. Phone: (775) 674-7070 FAX: (775) 674-7007
PUBLISHED BY:
The Weather Modification Association Additional copies of the Journal of Weather P.O. Box 26926 Modification are available for Fresno, California 93729-6926 U.S.A. U.S. $50 each - Volume 35 (either printed or CD version) Phone & FAX: (559) 434-3486 U.S. $60 each - Volume 35 (both printed and CD version) email: [email protected] U.S. $10 each (Volume 1-34, CD version only) U.S. $360 complete set of all 34 volumes/36 issues (CD version only)
Membership information is available by Current Membership Cost per Year: contacting the WMA Association at the Fresno, Corporate Member $200 California, Address shown above. Indivudal Member $55 Retired Member $30 Student Member $15 Honorary Member $0 ISBN: 0739-1781
- THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION
VOLUME 35 APRIL 2003
TABLE OF CONTENTS: PAGE
THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... iv
PRESIDENT'S MESSAGE and EDITOR'S MESSAGE ...... v Tom DeFelice and Steven K. Chai
REMEMBERING A TRUE PIONEER IN WEATHER MODIFICATION ROBERT D. ELLIOTT 1914-2002...... vii
------
- REVIEWED SECTION –
2002 ADVENTURES, VENTURES, AND MISADVENTURES OF WEATHER MODIFICATION IN TEXAS...... 10 Arquimedes Ruiz-Columbié, Dale L. Bates, and Orlando Nuñez-Russis
REEXAMINATION OF HISTORICAL REGRESSION ANALYSIS APPLIED TO A RECENT IDAHO CLOUD SEEDING PROJECT...... 25 Arlin B. Super and James A. Heimbach, Jr.
- NON-REVIEWED SECTION –
NEW ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM SIX WINTER SNOWPACK AUGMENTATION PROJECTS ...... 41 Thomas J. Henderson
THE KINGS RIVER WEATHER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PROGRAM...... 45 Thomas J. Henderson
ESTIMATIONS OF DOWNWIND CLOUD SEEDING EFFECTS IN UTAH ...... 52 Mark E. Solak, David P. Yorty, and Don A. Griffith
CLOUD SEEDING IN LIBYA ...... 59 Younis Al-Fenadi
A BRIEF COMMENT ABOUT ERGODICITY AND ROSENFELD-LENSKY METHOD ...... 63 Arquimedes Ruiz-Columbié
REPLY TO “A BRIEF COMMENT ABOUT ERGODICITY AND ROSENFELD-LENSKY METHOD”...... 67 Daniel Rosenfeld
ii - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION
VOLUME 35 APRIL 2003
Table of Contents, continued
- WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - GENERAL INFORMATION -
ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION 69
STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS ...... 72
QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR CERTIFICATION ...... 74
WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS/MANAGERS AND HONORARY MEMBERS ...... 76
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES ...... 77
WMA AWARDS - SCHAEFER AWARD, THUNDERBIRD AWARD, INTERNATIONAL AWARD, BLACK CROW AWARD...... 78
WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - INDIVIDUAL AND CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... 82
JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - 37 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS ...... 88
HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION, VOL. 1, NO. 1 (March 1969) THROUGH VOL. 34, No. 1 (Apr 2002) ...... 90
JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS - 2002/2003 ...... 125
AUTHOR'S GUIDE ...... 126
ADVERTISEMENTS
iii THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION
The Weather Modification Association was organized in 1950 to develop a better understanding of weather modification among program sponsors, the operators and members of the scientific commu- nity. In 1966, the first suggestion for a professional journal was proposed and Volume 1, No. 1, of the Journal of Weather Modification was published in March 1969. This historic publication now includes 35 volumes (37 issues).
Originally called the Weather Control Research Association, the name of the organization was changed to the Weather Modification Association in 1967. During its 48-year history, the Association has:
• Pressed for sound research programs at state and federal levels. • Promoted a better understanding of weather modification for beneficial use. • Acted as a disseminating agent for literature. • Provided extensive testimony before many federal, state and local committees and agencies in regard to all aspects of weather modification research and operations. • Assumed an active role in the promotion of policy statements concerning all aspects of weather modification. • Developed active positions on ethics, minimum standards for operations, and a strong certifi- cation program for operators and managers. • Published the Journal of Weather Modification, the only professional journal in the world to- tally dedicated to the operational, societal, economic, environ-mental, legal and scientific as- pects of weather modification.
The Journal is published annually and papers are always welcome for consideration in either the reviewed or non-reviewed sections. A nominal charge of $50 per page is made for each page published in the final double-column format of the Journal. An additional fee of $120 per page is charged for color pages; this fee is charged for all papers, foreign and domestic.
The general membership is open to all individuals and organizations who have an interest in any aspect of weather modification. The classes of membership and the present annual dues are:
Corporate: $200 Individual: $ 55 Retired: $ 30 Student: $ 15 Honorary: $ 0
Additional information on the individual classes of membership can be found in the Articles of Incorporation presented in a later section of this Journal.
Applications for membership on a calendar year basis, as well as additional information, can be obtained by writing to WMA at the permanent address of the Association:
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION P. O. Box 26926 Fresno, CA 93729-6926 USA Phone and FAX: 559-434-3486 Email: [email protected]
iv President’s Message
The WMA has made significant progress down its new Millennium path during these past two years. Its membership remains healthy in number and spirit. Its technology transfer infrastructure has evolved to provide
(i) educational courses on our technologies, (ii) a web-based information venue for our members, water management officials, policy makers, insurance industry agents, and the general public. (iii) the Journal of Weather Modification in two media, traditional (i.e. paperbound), and electronic (i.e. CD for now). (iv) a venue through which new and existing organizations within our community can share information about their products and services
It has new awards to recognize excellence in operational activities. In fact this evolution, alone, has feed our growth in more dimensions than mind and spirit.
I have fulfilled my platform, leaving it stronger, still, then when I arrived. It has surely been a worthwhile challenge being president of this great organization, and I hope that the momentum from these past two years continues. Before I forget, I want to thank each and every board member for his/her help. I can’t thank Hilda enough for her patience, ‘Master Gardener’ resourcefulness and wisdom.
This year’s message though is much the same as the past two, but shorter. We must continue to share our knowledge of the present and past, so that we can be prepared to handle those challenges we still face, as we proceed through this third millennium. We need to pay attention to each other, and each member needs to continue acting in a manner that nurtures the good of the many. Call it what you may, but this has worked these past two years, and I challenge the many to continue in this vain.
Tom DeFelice, PhD, President, WMA
v Editor’s Message
I am excited to bring you the inaugural issue of the Journal of Weather Modification edited by staff of Desert Research Institute. Publication of this issue would have been impossible without the help of my supporting staff at the Division of Atmospheric Sciences (DAS) of DRI, especially Vicki Hall, my Editorial Assistant. Special thanks also go to all the WMA officers, especially Hilda Duckering, and all the members for sending their research and operation reports to the Journal for publication.
As a step to increasing the accessibility of this journal, I am proud to announce the availability of an electronic (CD) version of this journal. Starting with this issue, subscribers can choose to receive the traditional printed version or the electronic version. For an extra $10, you can choose to receive both versions.
In addition, with the endless efforts by Hilda and Don Duckering and the great supporting staff of Kinko's, our 36 previous issues are now available on a single CD. Using the powerful search engine provided, readers can effortlessly search for papers published in these issues.
I hope you enjoy reading about the exciting research reported in this issue. As always, please continue to submit your articles.
Sincerely, Steve Chai, Editor
vi REMEMBERING A TRUE PIONEER IN WEATHER MODIFICATION
ROBERT D. ELLIOTT 1914-2002
Robert D. Elliott, a true pioneer in purposeful weather modification, died of a stroke at his home in Santa Barbara, California on April 5, 2002. Bob (everyone called him Bob) was 87 years old. His wife Dorothy survived him, although she recently passed away as well. They had been married 61 years at the time of Bob’s passing. He is survived by his daughter Susan Zink of Scottsdale, Arizona and his sons Robert and William Elliott of Santa Barbara, California. Bob was born on December 30, 1914 in Yonkers, New York. He graduated from the California Institute of Technology in 1937 with an M.S. in Meteorology. Dr. Irving P. Krick, another pioneer in the field of weather modification, was one of Bob’s professors. During World War II Bob was a Naval Aerological Officer based in Washington, D.C. He headed a group of three Navy meteorologists. This group was responsible for the preparation of all weather forecasts for U.S. Naval operations, including the preparation of forecasts for the D-Day invasion. He also participated in long range weather forecasting research. During this period he developed a storm typing system that is still in use by some meteorologists today. In 1950 Bob joined with Eugene Bollay, yet another pioneer in weather modification (who also passed away last year) to form North American Weather Consultants (NAWC) in Pasadena, California. NAWC was originally organized as both a weather modification company and a weather instrument company. Dr. Paul MacCready, who later founded Meteorology Research, Inc. (MRI) and Aerovironment also worked with Elliott and Bollay in the early years of NAWC. In 1951 NAWC was divided, with Mr. Bollay heading up the instruments division in Altadena, California and Bob leading the weather modification division which was relocated to Santa Barbara, California. NAWC activities at this time included weather forecasting, both short range and long range, in addition to weather modification. NAWC was one of the first private weather consulting firms organized in the United States following the end of World War II. One of the first weather modification projects undertaken by NAWC under Bob’s direction was the design and implementation of a winter orographic cloud seeding program for the upper San Joaquin River Drainage located on the west side of the southern Sierra Nevada of California. This project was supported by the
vii Southern California Edison Company. Of historical note is the fact that this program has continued in an uninterrupted fashion to the present and as such is, to my knowledge, the longest continually operated weather modification program in the world. Under Bob’s direction, NAWC went on to develop a number of other winter weather modification programs in the 1950's in California, primarily for other hydroelectric utilities. Subsequently, weather modification programs were conducted in many of the western United States and a number of foreign countries. Bob’s involvement with the Weather Modification Association (WMA) dates back to its very beginning. The first Journal of Weather Modification published in 1969 contains the following discussion on the background of the Weather Modification Association: “On April 4, 1951, Messrs. Stuart Cundiff, William Lang, Eugene Bollay, Robert Elliott, John Battle, and E.C. Hartman, met during a luncheon at the Mission Inn in Riverside, California. The object of this meeting was to discuss possible methods of organizing and controlling cloud seeding operations and evaluations in California for purposes of raising the standards with respect to those engaged in the business of weather modification.” At this meeting Bob was appointed Treasurer of the organization with the suggested name of “Artificial Precipitation Operators Association.” At a subsequent meeting on April 17, 1951 the name of the organization was changed to “Weather Control Research Association.” It was not until March 17, 1967 that the name was changed to the Weather Modification Association. Bob was quite active in the Weather Control Research Association, serving as President in 1951 and 1952, and Vice President from 1957-1959. He was also active in the WMA, serving on a variety of committees. Bob was honored by the WMA in 1973 when he was awarded the first Thunderbird Award and in 1978 when he was selected as the third recipient of the Schaefer Award. Bob participated in a number of landmark weather modification research programs throughout his professional career. Among these were the early Santa Barbara I and II experiments conducted in Santa Barbara County, the Bureau of Reclamation’s Colorado River Basin Pilot Project and the Sierra Cooperative Pilot Project. I first met Bob in 1968 when he attended a meeting as a scientific advisor in Fresno, California on a weather research program known as CENSARE. One of Bob’s interests through his involvement with these research programs was the development of computerized targeting models that could be used to calculate the transport of cloud seeding materials, their interaction with the cloud microphysics, and the resultant fall-out of seeded precipitation. He was heavily involved in the development of a model that could be used in real- time to help meteorologists predict this sequence of events. This model became known as GUIDE. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) in 1961 honored Bob with the presentation of the Award for Outstanding Contributions to the Advance of Applied Meteorology. He was elected a Fellow of the AMS and was a member of the original Board for Certified Consulting Meteorologists. Bob authored numerous articles concerned with meteorology including a
viii chapter in the first Compendium of Meteorology. He gave a large number of scientific presentations at professional conferences. He served on a number of committees dealing with meteorology and especially weather modification including ones organized by the American Society of Civil Engineers that, among other activities, developed a manual on cloud seeding in 1983. Bob lived and breathed meteorology. He loved to talk and think about the weather, into which he had considerable insight. When he perceived that artists did not know how to paint clouds, he took art lessons and became quite an accomplished artist. Even though Bob was the President of NAWC from 1951 through 1977, his choice was to pursue the science of meteorology as he left the administration of NAWC to others in the company like John Walser, Keith Brown and Einar Hovind. Bob was always a gentleman in his dealings with others. He might have disagreed with you professionally but you never felt like he was disagreeing with you on a personal level. I had many enjoyable times working and traveling with Bob and gained considerable insight into meteorology because of this contact. Bob was a member of the American Meteorological Society, the American Association for Advancement of Science, the American Society of Civil Engineers, the American Geophysical Union, Sigma XI and, of course, the Weather Modification Association. Bob retired from NAWC in 1985. He will be missed by all that knew him.
Don Griffith President, North American Weather Consultants
ix 10 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
2002 Adventures, Ventures, and Misadventures of Weather Modification in Texas
Arquimedes Ruiz-Columbié Dale L. Bates Orlando Nuñez-Russis 8696 Hangar Rd. Hangar Rd. B Willinston, P.O. 204 San Angelo, 76904 Angelo, 76904 Deer, 79097
Abstract. Texas’2002 cloud seeding operations, which began in March, were aided by daily and monthly evaluation reports using the TITAN evaluation software package. By comparison with unseeded control clouds, the evaluation program estimated the modifications that had occurred in particular seeded clouds in regards to timing, dosages, missed opportunities, etc. This paper serves as an annual summary of these results. A total of 897 clouds were seeded and identified by TITAN in 237 target-area operational days (tao days). A sub-total of 599 seeded clouds was evaluated with the classic TITAN tool; 56 seeded clouds did not obtain proper data files, and 242 clouds were reserved for the synergetic analysis (135 large and 107 type B clouds).
0. Introduction the data generated during this second year of scientific management in Texas we were Year 2002 was a very peculiar year in able to estimate increases of rainfall leaving relationship to cloud seeding operations in the clouds and the cost per acre-foot, a cost Texas. Ten projects started the 2002 season. figure easily understood in Texas. An The Edward Aquifer Authority (EAA) intense program of public information has was no longer an independent entity, but the begun which gives interested parties these new Southern Ogallala Aquifer Rainfall data and figures. program was added when it split from High Plains Water District program (HPWD) 1. Classic TITAN evaluation and included the 3 New Mexico counties. In August, HPWD suddenly closed due to the A total of 897 clouds were seeded and opposition in 3 of its counties. Moreover, identified by TITAN on 237 target area the process of evaluation, whose results are operational days during the period March- the core of this paper, became more complex October 2002. Fifty-six clods did have with the addition of the called “synergetic incomplete data files and were, therefore, analysis”, a tool designed to analyze large not considered in the evaluations; and type B clouds, which usually do not consequently a final sample of 841 seeded receive proper control partners from the clouds was analyzed (low tracking threshold TITAN evaluation (Ruiz et al, 2002; 32 dBz, Bates and Ruiz, 2002). However, Mittermaier and Dixon, 2000). Synergetic 242 seeded clouds (135 large and 107 type B analysis consists in making the comparisons cases) were extracted from the classic of different periods of the same cloud to TITAN evaluation and reserved for estimate the response to the seeding synergetic analyses. Thus, we had 599 operation and later to construct a virtual small seeded clouds and clusters control cloud. Details are explained later. (precipitation mass smaller than 10 7 ton), which obtained proper control clouds in the The exhaustive study of every seeded cloud evaluation process. Table 1.1 shows the and its corresponding control cloud (real or results. virtual) allowed us to understand the nature of the Weather Modification actions. From
April 2003 RUIZ-COLUMBIÉ ET AL. 11
Table 1.1 Small Seeded Clouds versus Small Control Clouds (599 couples, averages)
Variable Seeded Sample Control Sample Simple Ratio Increases (%)
Lifetime 85 min 55 min (61) 1.55 (1.39) 55 (39)
Area 58.2 km2 46.7 km2 1.25 (1.18) 25 (18)
Volume 193.2 km3 140.1 km3 1.38 (1.22) 38 (25)
Top Height 8.0 km 7.5 km 1.07 (1.04) 7 (4)
Max dBz 47.3 45.6 1.04 (1.02) 4 (2)
Top Height of max dBz 4.2 km 4.3 km 0.98 (1.00) -2 (0)
Volume Above 6 km 55.4 km3 34.8 km3 1.59 (1.33) 59 (33)
Prec.Flux 289.0 m3/s 190.7 m3/s 1.52 (1.36) 52 (36)
Prec.Mass 1439.3 kton 667.4 kton 2.16 (1.89) 116 (89)
CloudMass 119.8 kton 79.5 kton 1.51 (1.35) 51 (35)
η 12.0 8.4 (8.5) 1.43 (1.41) 43 (41)
Bold values in Table 1.1 are modeled values of 35 % in cloud mass illustrates that the (Ruiz et al, ibid), whereas η is defined as the seeded clouds grew at expenses of the quotient between Precipitation Mass and environmental moisture and used only a Cloud Mass and is interpreted as efficiency. fraction of this moisture for their own A total of 3225 flares and 3480 generator- maintenance. The increases in lifetime, in minutes were used in this sub-sample with a volume, in volume above 6 km, and in very good timing (69 % of the seeding agent precipitation flux are appreciable, whereas went to the clouds during their first half- the increase in area (18 %) is around the lifetime), for an effective dose around 40 radar uncertainty. There is a slight increase ice-nuclei per liter (8 % of the seeding in maximum reflectivity (2 %), and a little agent came from generators) in relationship greater increase in top height (4 %), but both to the average volume above 6 km, but are within the respective radar uncertainties. should have reached dynamical levels in the The seeded sub-sample seemed 41 % more aimed new developments by judging the efficient than the control sub-sample. results. A very good increase of 89 % in precipitation mass together with an increase 12 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
Our cluster analysis was extended to different couple is composed of “a single seeded case other sub-samples. For instance, Table 1.2 versus a single control case” (267 couples): shows the results for 267 cases where the
Table 1.2 Single Seeded Clouds versus Single Control Clouds (267 couples, averages)
Variable Seeded Sample Control Sample Simple Ratio Increases (%)
Lifetime 40 min 30 min (33) 1.33 (1.21) 33 (21)
Area 29.0 km2 25.5 km2 1.14 (1.08) 14 (8)
Volume 82.8 km3 69.3 km3 1.19 (1.12) 19 (12)
Top Height 7.3 km 7.0 km 1.04 (1.01) 4 (1)
Max dBz 45.9 44.8 1.02 (1.01) 2 (1)
Top Height of max dBz 4.0 km 4.2 km 0.95 (0.98) -5 (-2)
Volume Above 6 km 18.9 km3 14.3 km3 1.32 (1.07) 32 (7)
Prec.Flux 146.2 m3/s 105.0 m3/s 1.39 (1.20) 39 (20)
Prec.Mass 368.8 kton 203.2 kton 1.81 (1.57) 81 (57)
CloudMass 52.1 kton 38.5 kton 1.35 (1.17) 35 (17)
η 7.1 5.3 (5.3) 1.34 (1.34) 34 (34)
A total of 958 flares and 1477 generator- response did not occur but that minutes were used in this sub-sample with a microphysical changes promoted the very good timing (68 %), for an effective increase in precipitation mass presumably dose around 60 ice-nuclei per liter (10 % of through an appreciable increase in lifetime, the seeding agent came from generators). the only primary variable with appreciable Here there are only slight increases in area, increase. The seeded sub-sample appeared in volume, in volume above 6 km, and in to be 34 % more efficient. precipitation flux, whereas the increases in lifetime (21 %) and precipitation mass (57 A new concept was introduced to analyze %) are appreciable, above the corresponding some impacts of the seeding actions in the radar uncertainties. upper levels of the seeded clouds. We defined top debris as the echoes at the top Results in single-cell cloud evaluation level with reflectivity below 32 dBz and at indicate that the expected dynamical the end of the cloud lifetime. For the seeded
April 2003 RUIZ-COLUMBIÉ ET AL. 13
sub-sample of single-cell clouds and its Abilene and Cotulla target areas) showed control sub-sample, an analysis of top debris that these losses were worse for these cases (sometimes anvil losses) indicated that at the (29 couples). The average top debris for end of their lifetime the top debris of the these 29 seeded cases was 8.5 km, whereas seeded clouds had a height of 9.2 km, while for the control cases average was 7.8 km. the control sample had a value of 9.1 km, a The difference 0.7 km = 2295 feet was difference of 0.1 km = 328 feet. The top seven times greater than the value obtained debris of the single-cell seeded clouds was, for the sub-sample of 267 cases. on average, higher than the top debris of the corresponding control clouds, a feature that The extension of the cluster analysis to points out the undesired losses of moisture multi-cell cases led to Table 1.3, which at the top level. shows the results of the evaluation for the sub-sample of multi-cell small seeded A similar analysis of top debris for the clouds and clusters matched with multi-cell single-cell clouds seeded only with control clouds (205 couples). generators (cases which occurred only in
Table 1.3 Multi-cell Seeded Clouds versus Multi-cell Control Clouds (205 multi-cell couples, averages)
Variable Seeded Sample Control Sample Simple Ratio Increases (%)
Lifetime 120 min 80 min (88) 1.50 (1.36) 50 (36)
Area 93.0 km2 77.7 km2 1.20 (1.19) 20 (19)
Volume 323.7 km3 244.3 km3 1.33 (1.27) 33 (27)
Top Height 8.9 km 8.2 km 1.09 (1.09) 9 (9)
Max dBz 48.9 46.7 1.05 (1.03) 5 (3)
Top Height of max dBz 4.3 km 4.5 km 0.96 (0.98) -4 (-2)
Volume Above 6 km 95.9 km3 65.0 km3 1.48 (1.41) 48 (41)
Prec.Flux 462.2 m3/s 314.9 m3/s 1.47 (1.41) 47 (41)
Prec.Mass 2818.6 kton 1385.7 kton 2.03 (2.13) 103 (113)
CloudMass 201.4 kton 140.5 kton 1.43 (1.39) 43 (39)
η 14.0 9.9 (9.1) 1.41 (1.54) 41 (54)
14 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
A total of 1865 flares and 1040 generator- responses, with an excellent increase in minutes were used in this seeded sub- precipitation mass (113 %). The seeded sample, with a very good timing (70 %), for sub-sample appeared to be 54 % more an effective dose around 40 ice-nuclei per efficient than its corresponding control. liter, which should have reached dynamical levels in many particular clouds by judging the results. Only 5 % of the seeding Table 1.3.1 shows the results of the material came from generators). Appreciable evaluation of the clouds (singles and multi- increases in the main variables but area cells) that were seeded only with generators: indicate the occurrence of dynamical
Table 1.3.1 Seeded Sample versus Control Sample (38 couples, averages) (Single and Multi-cell clouds seeded only with generators versus their control clouds)
Variable Seeded Sample Control Sample Simple Ratio Increases (%)
Lifetime 70 min 40 min (44) 1.75 (1.59) 75 (59)
Area 47.6 km2 43.2 km2 1.10 (1.01) 10 (1)
Volume 122.3 km3 113.1 km3 1.08 (1.00) 8 (0)
Top Height 6.9 km 6.6 km 1.05 (0.99) 5 (-1)
Max dBz 45.2 44.1 1.02 (0.98) 2 (-2)
Top Height of max dBz 3.7 km 3.8 km 0.97 (1.03) -3 (3)
Volume Above 6 km 17.8 km3 19.7 km3 0.90 (0.81) -10 (-19)
Prec.Flux 190.7 m3/s 154.3 m3/s 1.24 (1.08) 24 (8)
Prec.Mass 819.4 kton 547.0 kton 1.50 (1.36) 50 (36)
CloudMass 65.1 kton 57.0 kton 1.14 (1.02) 14 (2)
η 12.6 9.6 (9.4) 1.31 (1.34) 31 (34)
A total of 1065 generator-minutes were used within the radar uncertainties. There is not in this sub-sample with a good timing (58 increase in volume, and a decrease in %), for an effective dose around 35 ice- volume above 6 km, which may indicate that nuclei per liter. Now, only the increases in the extension of the seeded clouds at the lifetime (59 %), and precipitation mass (36 upper levels occurred with values of %) are appreciable, whereas the increases in reflectivity below the tracking threshold, area and precipitation flux are very small, mainly as top debris (blown top effect).
April 2003 RUIZ-COLUMBIÉ ET AL. 15
The dose is considered intermediate, which multiplicity using the information about the is not bad, but it seems like the very small amount of cells in each scan for every case ice particles made a counter-effect. shows very interesting features. Table 1.4 Coming back to the sub-sample of 205 summarizes these issues: multi-cell couples, a further analysis of
Table 1.4 Analysis of multiplicity using the amount of cells (n) (Multi-cell Seeded Clouds versus their Multi-cell Control Clouds)
Seeded Sample 1.9 16 3.8 34 min 18 min
Control Sample 1.7 15 3.1 24 min 12 min
Here,
April 2003 RUIZ-COLUMBIÉ ET AL. 17
Table 2.1 A summary of the temporal evolution for some variable in large clouds
Variable Before seeding During seeding After seeding Whole lifetime
PrecMass/scan 586 kton 1177 kton 1903 kton 1292 kton
PrecMass/cell. scan 186 kton 226 kton 388 kton 275 kton
(
These values indicate an increase of 53 % in control cases. It is very important to point the amount of cells during the seeding out that the rate of production of cells did operation in large clouds (5.2/3.4 = 1.53), increase during the operations, and later accompanied by an increase in precipitation became negative in association with the mass per scan of 101 % (1177/586 = 2.01). processes of merging and dissipation. For the entire lifetime respective increases were 38 % and 120 %. However, these For type B clouds (107 cases), the increases must be normalized before being corresponding results were: used in the construction of the virtual
Table 2.2 A summary of the temporal evolution for some variable in type B clouds
Variable Before seeding During seeding After seeding Whole lifetime
PrecMass/scan 594 kton 992 kton 1258 kton 892 kton
PrecMass/cell. scan 126 kton 157 kton 252 kton 172 kton
These values show an increase of 34 % type B clouds lasted 255 minutes, while (6.3/4.7 = 1.34) in the amount of cells large clouds lasted 210 minutes, and this during the seeding operations of type B difference in 45 minutes seems decisive. clouds, together with an increase of 67 % in precipitation mass per scan (992/594 = As we have said, during the 2002 season 1.67). For the entire lifetime the respective 242 seeded clouds deserved synergetic increases were 11% and 50 %. In average analyses, 135 type A large cases, and 107 18 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
type B cases. However, 5 large clouds and 6 not show responses to the seeding type B clouds were discarded for different operations. reasons: four were seeded too late during their senescence period (after full maturity, without Storm Severity Structure index Table 2.3 shows the results for the large signs, a feature in TITAN), two were very clouds, whereas table 2.4 corresponds to the maritime and seeded relatively late, and five type B clouds. received really marginal doses (around 1 ice-nucleus per liter). These 11 cases did
Table 2.3 Seeded Sample versus Virtual Control Sample (130 couples, averages) (Large Seeded Clouds versus their Virtual Large Control Clouds)
Variable Seeded Sample Virtual Control Simple Ratio Increases (%)
Lifetime 210 min 185 min 1.14 14
Area 856 km2 812 km2 1.05 5
Volume 4285 km3 3975 km3 1.08 8
Top Height 13.2 km 12.6 km 1.05 5
Max dBz 53.4 52.4 1.02 2
Top Height of max dBz 5.4 km 5.4 km 1.00 0
Volume Above 6 km 2165 km3 1966 km3 1.10 10
Prec.Flux 5435 m3/s 4940 m3/s 1.10 10
Prec.Mass 82324 kton 70282 kton 1.17 17
CloudMass 3166 kton 2871 kton 1.10 10
η 26.0 24.5 1.06 6
A total of 3496 flares and 1165 generator- some individual turrets (4% of the seeding minutes were used in this sub-sample for an agent came from generators). average dose around 30 ice-nuclei per liter, which may have reached higher levels in For the 101 type B cases:
April 2003 RUIZ-COLUMBIÉ ET AL. 19
Table 2.4 Seeded Sample versus Virtual Control Sample (101 couples, averages) (Type B Seeded Clouds versus their Virtual Control Clouds)
Variable Seeded Sample Virtual Control Simple Ratio Increases (%)
Lifetime 255 min 245 min 1.04 4
Area 702 km2 657 km2 1.07 7
Volume 3399.3 km3 3138 km3 1.08 8
Top Height 11.8 km 11.2 km 1.05 5
Max dBz 50.3 49.9 1.01 1
Top Height of max dBz 4.9 km 5.0 km 0.98 -2
Volume Above 6 km 1761 km3 1603 km3 1.10 10
Prec.Flux 3616 m3/s 3328 m3/s 1.09 9
Prec.Mass 59639 kton 52399 kton 1.14 14
CloudMass 2330 kton 2101 kton 1.11 11
η 25.6 24.9 1.03 3
A total of 1409 flares and 1165 generator- controls and to obtain estimations about the minutes were used in this sub-sample for an values of the possible increases in the radar average dose around 20 ice-nuclei per liter, variables. In fact, we have now a better idea which may have reached higher levels in about how proper control clouds must be for some particular turrets. large seeded clouds. The problem might be partially solved with an improved TITAN Increases are very similar in table 2.3 and in version that might evaluate individual table 2.4. Type B clouds in average lasted convective seeded clouds without more than large type A clouds, but offered considering a family tracking number. less precipitation. Most of the virtual However, for large single clouds, which are increases in the last two tables are within the rare events, the problem would persist. radar uncertainties and therefore are undetectable with our actual tools. Probably the interpretation of results from Nevertheless, the synergetic analysis and its the different tables presented in this report derivate results allow us to approach the might be more clarified with the evaluation of the seeding operations on presentation of the different precipitation seeded clouds that did not get proper 20 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35 masses as water layers. We can define these layers with the variable “layer depth”, D, Table 2.5 shows the corresponding values for small clouds and clusters (from Table D = Precipitation Mass (kton) / Area (km2), which 1.1): has unit of millimeters.
(One inch is equal to 25.4 millimeters)
Table 2.5 Values of “D” for small cloud and cluster samples
Seeded Sample Control Sample Increase % to Seeded Sample
D 0.97 inch 0.56 inch 0.40 inch 41 %
It is important to notice that the increase in radar data. Here the percent of increase this case is not the arithmetic difference referred to the seeded sample is 41 %, and between the seeded and the control values might be a close figure to the values that because different values of area are in the may be obtained by a proper rain gage calculations. The values of D simulate network. depth values of layers below an average cloud for each sample and the equivalent For large clouds (from table 2.3): layer for the increase calculated from the
Table 2.6 Values of “D” for large clouds
Seeded Sample Control Sample Increase % to Seeded Sample
D 3.79 inches 3.40 inches 0.55 inch 14 %
A 14 % of increase is reported in the depth of a virtual layer below the average large For type B clouds (from table 2.4): seeded cloud.
Table 2.7 Values of “D” for type B clouds
Seeded Sample Control Sample Increase % to Seeded Sample
D 3.34 inches 3.13 inches 0.41 inch 12 %
A 12 % of increase is reported in the depth The average figure for all the seeded of a virtual layer below the average type B clouds: seeded cloud.
Table 2.8 Values of “D” for all the clouds
Seeded Sample Control Sample Increase % to Seeded Sample
April 2003 RUIZ-COLUMBIÉ ET AL. 21
D 1.70 inches 1.32 inches 0.42 inch 25 %
A 25 % of increase is reported in the depth indexes are evaluated according with the of a virtual layer below the average seeded predominant nuance, determined by using cloud of the season 2002. the median, and more qualitative criteria. Days with lower performance than those 3. A glance to the local assessments described in this paragraph but with some increases in variables as area, volume, A further evaluation of performance based volume above 6 km, precipitation flux, and on a scale of 1 to 5 was done under daily precipitation mass are classified as fair, bases. An excellent operational day is which sometimes means failure, and receive defined as one with an excellent timing (75 a mark of 2. Days with decreases in % or higher), an excellent dosage (dynamic precipitation mass and other variables are levels), an excellent increase in precipitation classified as poor and receive a mark of 1. mass (90 % or more), and no missed Using this scale to classify the 237 target opportunities. Excellent days receive a area operational days reported, the following mark of 5. A very good operational day is distribution was obtained: defined as one with a very good timing (between 65 and 74%), a very good dose Thirty excellent target area operational (intermediate to dynamic levels), a very days, seventy-nine very good target area good increase in precipitation mass operational days, eighty-six good target (between 60 and 89 %), and 15 % or less area operational days, and thirty-two fair missed opportunities. Very good days target area operational days, for a median receive a mark of 4. A good operational of three (ten of these days were out of day is defined as one with a good timing data) (between 55 and 64 %), a good dose (intermediate), a good increase in A total of 93 missed opportunities (990 precipitation mass (between 30 and 59 %), seedable clouds were present over the whole and between 16 and 30 % missed state target area during the operations) were opportunities. Good days receive a mark of distributed as table 4.1 shows below 3. Days with a mixture of excellent, very together with other managing indexes: good, and good marks for the different Table 3.1: An Analysis of Performance
Missed Opportunities (M.O), Efficiency using Seedable Conditions, Timing, Dosages used, and Increase
Project M.O Efficiency (%) Timing (%) Dosage (in/ l) Layer increase (%)
CRMWD (Big Spring) 2 (10 %) 90 70 25 23
(1) HPUWCD (Littlefield) 14 (17 %) 86 63 40 17
NPWMA (Dumas) 7 (10 %) 90 84 20 26
PGWD (White Deer) 9 (10 %) 90 73 20 24
SOAR (Plains) 11 (18 %) 82 69 20 27 22 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
STWMA (Pleasanton) 6 (12 %) 88 74 55 31
(2) SWTREA (Cotulla) 14 (20 %) 80 55 35 13
(3) TBWMA (Del Río) 9 (8 %) 92 70 120 28
(4) WCTWMA (Abilene) 4 (3 %) 97 65 40 21
WTWMA (San Angelo) 17 (6 %) 94 69 40 29
TEXAS 93 (9%) 91 69 40 25
(1) Problems of over-seeding during top seeding operations (too many flares per turrets) (2) Pale increases in seeded clouds mainly due to generators that promoted “blown top” effects (3) Slight over-seeding during base seeding operations which did not hurt the clouds (4) Pale increases in seeded clouds mainly due to generators that promoted “blown top” effects
4. Conclusions and comments minimized with a more intelligent use of TITAN side windows and a better pilot- There are many features that deserve final meteorologist communication link. The comments. First of all, the system of over-seeding factor is more probable in top scientific management implanted in Texas in seeding operations, which aim small turrets, 2001 has paid off its initial inversion (Bates undetectable by radar, when the and Ruiz, ibid). Daily, monthly and annual meteorologist needs more information from evaluations have allowed us to improve the the pilots. performances in each local project, a sort of continuing education that challenges the Four, the interaction with experts in other personnel to stay proficient in the positions atmospheric disciplines, and with the they are working at. general public taught us that there is a long road to walk before outsiders understand the Second, there are more statistical evidences nature of our job. We are facing a great that acetone generators are very limited handicap because Classic Meteorology’s seeding tools, at least for convective clouds. main concern about storms is that they are Despite better doses and timing than last sources of bad weather, and has focused year, the increases obtained in 2002 with study in order to describe the processes from them were pale, and the losses as top debris a macroscopic point of view, as well as appear to be significant (see table 1.3.1 and mechanical. We know now how to appeal the comments associated). to their instability to promote distinct behaviors, which occur far from Third, we also realized first-hand the well equilibrium. Storms are not totally know need for meteorologists and pilots to determined by environmental conditions. maintain excellent inter-personnel Storms are a dynamic product of their communications during the operational environment, are conditioned by the flights. Over-seeding problems can be environment, but also they condition the
April 2003 RUIZ-COLUMBIÉ ET AL. 23 environment. With this conception, the two variables very related with severe passive and contemplative style of Classic weather. These variables illustrate that Meteorology can be removed. Additionally, operations do not increase the risks of severe Advertent Weather Modification operations weather. Besides, operations target seedable do not compete energetically with the cells, which are very young, contain plenty weather systems but they trigger a chain of of supercooled water and are iceless. We events using catalysts (such as silver attempt to use dynamic doses, with a iodide), which help release latent energy. maximum around 100 ice-nuclei per liter, Talk of the impossibility of modifying far from overseeding levels (1000 ice-nuclei weather systems because of their huge per liter). The aforementioned results in this energy levels does not recognize that small paragraph additionally show that the causes can produce great effects, the base of increases in precipitation mass (at the Thermodynamics two centuries ago. A bottom of seeded clouds) are greater than rigorous mechanical point of view has the increases in cloud mass for the same become too mechanistic, thereby neglecting clouds, illustrating that seeded clouds grow the existence of thermodynamic machines at the expenses of environmental moisture and engines where a little spark serves to which is abundant for all other nearby release latent chemical energy. convective clouds as well. The mechanistic conceptions that clouds are like “pitchers” When the seeding operations take place should be replaced with one that is more the chain of events triggered allows the cells realistic and recognizes that clouds are open to receive additional moisture from the systems with a very strong interaction with environment, which eventually feeds the ice the environment that import mass and in place. Unseeded clouds do not receive energy from it, and export entropy. Clouds this additional moisture, but continue to then can grow in structural and functional grow ‘naturally’, because the seeding complexity, can reach steady states far from operations in other cells do not block the equilibrium, can produce synergy… This confluence of moisture in the neighbor new conception permits to recognize the clouds. All convective clouds start as Weather Modification facts. The World thermals that promote the formation of Meteorological Organization has slowly micro-scale low-pressure centers in low evolved every year toward a more favorable levels, which are the cause of the opinion of planned weather modification. aforementioned confluence. If the From very skeptical statements in the early environment is rich enough in moisture, the 90’s, passing on to an encouraging policy described process will occur, otherwise statement in 1998, to a more optimistic clouds will not exist. The “Robbing from actual view, which includes not only Peter to pay Paul argument” ignores these axiological statements but also guidelines to facts and the evidence that favorable effects develop operational programs, this evolution downstream are also associated with the points to a growing recognition of the seeding operations (see also DeFelice, Weather Modification facts (WMO 2002). statement, 2002).
Current quantitative evaluations in Texas 5. References (Ruiz, 2002) show that there are no great increases either for top height or for Bates, D.L. and A. Ruiz (2002): Weather maximum reflectivity in the seeded clouds, Modification Scientific Management in 24 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
Texas: The extensive and intensive uses of TITAN. J. Wea. Mod., 34, 104-110. (non- reviewed)
DeFelice, T.P. (2002): A high-level atmospheric management program plan for the new millennium J. Wea. Mod., April 2002, 34, 94-99. (non- reviewed)
Mittermaier, M. and M. Dixon (2000): TITAN: Analysis Software Guide, Lectures in San Angelo, Texas, July 2000, 44 pp.
Ruiz, A., M. Mittermaier, D. Bates (2002): Modeling TITAN control clouds. J. Wea. Mod., 34, 100-103. (non-reviewed)
Ruiz, A (2002): 2002 Ten Local Annual Reports in Texas (Available upon request)
WMO statement on the status of Weather Modification, 2002 http://www.wmo.ch/index-en.html, link: Physics of Clouds and Weather Modification Research Program).
Acknowledgements: The authors wish to thank all the personnel that worked during the operations 2002 in Texas, especially Mr. Raymond Boyd from Active Influence & Scientific Management, who struggled with the data during the whole season and Ms. Kate Bates who spent a lot of time helping us to improve our writing.
April 2003 SUPER AND HEIMBACH 25
Reexamination of Historical Regression Analysis Applied to a Recent Idaho Cloud Seeding Project
Arlin B. Super and James A. Heimbach, Jr. St. Cloud, Minnesota Springvale, Maine
Abstract. A recently reported analysis of an Idaho operational winter cloud seeding project is examined in detail. The analysis used the traditional historical regression method. It appeared to provide impressive evidence that seeding was effective in increasing seasonal snowpack accumulation during each of four winters with a mean increase near 12%. The analysis was based on a strong relationship with the April 1st control station mean explaining 96% of the target area variance. However, frequent snow melt prior to April 1st was discovered at 4 of 7 control stations and 3 of 10 target stations. Snow melt is shown to have introduced an important but apparently unrecognized variable into the target-control relationship, making it inappropriate for evaluation of seeding effectiveness. Repeating the analysis procedures with March 1st observations from the same stations reduced the "seeding signal" to under 4%. Additional target and control stations were identified and used in comprehensive historical regression analyses. Once a limited number of stations with February melt were discarded, all possible combinations of available control stations were tested to detect target-control relationships which explained the most variance. These relationships did not support the hypothesis that cloud seeding significantly enhanced the seasonal snow water content. Additional testing was done with April 1st observations to demonstrate that a wide range of results can emerge from a large database even with the requirement of a strong target-control association. Recommendations are made for future application of this statistical approach.
1. INTRODUCTION
The historical regression method, used with target out possible sources of uncontrolled variance and and control area measurements, has long been bias. He noted that some statisticians considered employed in evaluation of cloud seeding projects uncertainties sufficient to render useless all such intended to increase precipitation. Measurements of analyses of operational programs. But others seasonal snow accumulation, rainfall or streamflow believed useful information could be obtained if are compared between the intended target area and uncontrolled variance and bias were identified and upwind and crosswind locations (control areas) reduced. Dennis (ibid.) referred to Court (1960) unlikely to be affected by the seeding. Several when stating that, "Agreements before a project nonseeded seasons are needed to establish a historical begins as to which rain gages are to be included in relationship by linear regression analysis. Control calculating the target and control rainfall, for area observations during seeded seasons are used example, go far toward eliminating both unconscious with this relationship to predict expected target area bias and any temptation to select data to demonstrate amounts in the absence of seeding. Departures from a desired result." these predictions are examined for evidence of cloud seeding effectiveness. It is generally assumed that Application of this method to nonrandomized the stronger the target-control relationship, the more observations has potentially serious problems. successful the method can be in detecting relatively Therefore, indications of changes associated with small departures possibly caused by seeding. A seeding should be considered no more than linear correlation coefficient (R-value) is typically suggestive, and certainly not "proof" in the sense that calculated to express the degree of relationship, or scientists and statisticians use that term. The authors association, between target and control station means, of this paper used the historical regression approach while R2 is considered the variance explained. This to seek supporting evidence for their exploratory paper will demonstrate that a high R-value does not statistical analyses of the randomized Bridger Range guarantee a valid means of evaluating seeding Experiment (Super and Heimbach 1983). Their effectiveness when snow melt is strongly involved in historical target control regression analyses was not the target-control relationship. part of the original design, and target and control stations were chosen after the fact, albeit by an An early example of this analysis approach was objective method. Consequently, the authors were reported by Thom (1957). Dennis (1980) discussed careful to use "suggested" and similar adjectives with the historical regression method in detail, pointing indications of possible snowfall increases. 26 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
Griffith and Solak (2002), hereafter GS, reported an apparently ineffectual Idaho seeding are briefly economic feasibility assessment of winter cloud considered in Section 9. Section 10 presents a seeding in the Boise River Basin of southern Idaho. summary and recommendations for future use of the The basis for that assessment was their application of historical regression method applied to winter historical regression analysis to operational seeding orographic cloud seeding projects. over four consecutive winters. They concluded that, "An evaluation of the effectiveness of these (cloud 2. OPERATIONAL SEEDING PROJECT AND seeding) programs indicated an average of a 12% INITIAL ANALYSIS ELEMENTS increase in the target area April 1st snow pack water content." The target-control relationship had a high Griffith and Solak (ibid.) reported on an operational R-value of 0.98, indicating 96% of the variance was seeding program that was intended to increase the explained by the historical regression equation based seasonal snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Boise on 32 pre-seeding winters. River Basin target area above Lucky Peak Dam in southern Idaho. Silver iodide (AgI) seeding was This paper is limited to consideration of the historical conducted between 10 Dec. 1992 - 31 May 1993; 22 regression method and does not address the GS Nov. 1993 - 30 April 1994; 15 Nov. 1994 - 15 Apr. economic assessment. While numerous journal 1995 and 1 Nov. 1995 - 31 Mar. 1996. For articles have used this method over the years, the GS simplicity, each season will henceforth be identified analysis was chosen for in-depth scrutiny because it by the end-of-season year. Thus, seeding operations was recent and claimed impressive seeding effects for will be said to have been conducted from 1993-96. each of four winters, based on a strong target-control relationship. In short, the results were impressive The seeding program used 20 silver iodide (AgI) when taken at face value. However, a number of generator sites shown on Fig. 4 of GS, a map which topics were not addressed by GS, such at why indicates 13 generators were within the target area particular control stations were selected while other boundary while 7 others were outside. The latter available stations were ignored. The analyses herein followed the western half of the target's perimeter. will illustrate some of the potential shortcomings that Generator output was reported as 8 grams of AgI per can occur with misapplication of this statistical hour per unit. The ground-based generators were method. This paper has general relevance concerning operated by local residents when contacted by project this method , but especially as applied to operational meteorologists. Generators were at relatively low winter orographic cloud seeding projects. The intent elevations, ranging from 1000 to 5400 ft. All is to illustrate some complexities and pitfalls of elevations are reported in feet above mean sea level. statistical analyses of operational programs. Generator locations suggest transport winds were This paper is organized as follows. The Idaho expected to be from approximately south-southwest seeding project and elements of the GS analysis are to north-northwest. This placement is in reasonable briefly described in Section 2. Available snow water agreement with Huggins (1997) who found most 850 equivalent observations are discussed in Section 3. mb winds were between 150 to 330 degrees with a Section 4 presents a repeat of the GS analysis to median of 238 degrees when liquid water was insure data consistency, plus methodology to estimate detected above an adjacent basin. The 850 mb level probability levels. A serious problem with use of is near the elevation of the highest AgI generators April 1st observations; namely, prior frequent snow and should approximate low-level transport. Winds melt at several stations, is considered in Section 5, at 700 mb were typically westerly. Reference to divided into 5 subsections. Section 6 presents a Figs. 4 and 5 of GS suggests their control station comprehensive new analysis of the seeding project selection generally minimized contamination. with March 1st observations, using all available Banner Summit (control station 1), at the eastern end control and target stations and inclusion of post- of the Payette Basin immediately north of the target seeded seasons. Use of April 1st observations is area, is most likely to have been affected if further explored in Section 7 to better illuminate how contamination was a problem. It is also the control such an apparently strong suggestion of seeding station nearest to, and most highly correlated with, effectiveness could be misinterpreted. An attempt is the target area mean, providing an R-value of 0.973. made in Section 8 to select control station groupings That value is near R = 0.98 calculated for the mean of to show a desired result. Such "mining" of the data all 7 controls used by GS, which explains only 1.4% violates the scientific method, but illustrates how more variance. Use of contaminated control stations false results can be "found" even with strong control- should provide conservative results, assuming any target relationships. Possible reasons for the seeding effects resulted in net SWE increases. Some
April 2003 SUPER AND HEIMBACH 27 regression results will be given without inclusion of increase. That high value was exceeded only by the Banner Summit, but the evidence suggests that third winter with 17.4%, and was well above contamination was insignificant. suggested increases of 6.5 and 5.0% for the other seeded winters. Choosing and reporting all observing April 1st SWE observations were used by GS to stations before any seeding obviously enhances evaluate seeding effectiveness. Choice of particular credibility of later reported results. target and control SWE observing stations was briefly explained by GS as follows: "For this 3. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT DATA program, ten target area and seven control area sites were identified with long-term historical records. Snow water equivalent measurements were obtained Control stations were selected in close proximity from the Natural Resources Conservation Service (emphasis added) to the target stations and at similar (NRCS) Snow Survey Program. Station data are elevations in order to obtain as strong correlations as readily assessable from their web site. The 7 control possible." In fact, mean elevations for the target and stations and 10 target stations used by GS are given control stations were 7220 and 6380 ft, respectively, in Tables 1 and 2, respectively, using their number a difference of 840 ft. That difference was and letter identifiers. These tables also list an significant for snow melt prior to April 1st as additional 7 control and 2 target stations which were discussed below. Higher correlations were found found and used later in this study. with a number of combinations of the seven control stations, two of which are listed in Table 5, to be A search was made for all NRCS snow course and discussed in Section 7. Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) locations that met the criteria used by GS for control stations. That is, they "Close proximity" is a term not everyone might apply were upwind or crosswind of the target basin and no to the more distant control stations. Target station 1 greater than about 120 miles from the center of the was used as a reference point since it was located target. Because of an obvious March melt problem at near the center of the higher elevation portions of the lower elevation stations, discussed below, additional target area, expected to be most impacted by seeding. stations were required to have a minimum elevation The distances from that station to control stations E, of 6000 ft. Station records were required to extend F and G (also listed as 5, 6 and 7 in Table 1), all well from 1961 to 2001. The regions searched were the southwest of the target, were 104, 122 and 91 statute two adjacent areas between 42 deg 30 min to 45 deg mi, respectively. In contrast, the other 4 control 15 min latitude and 116 to 117 deg longitude, and stations were from 38 to 67 mi north to north- between 44 deg 30 min and 45 deg latitude and 115 northwest of the target reference site. All target to 116 deg longitude. These areas encompass all stations were within 34 mi of target station 1. mountains within about 120 mi distance in directions unlikely to be affected by Boise Basin seeding. GS selected 1961-92 as the historical period, Seven additional stations were found besides the 7 providing a sample of 32 nonseeded winters. There used by GS, with distances from target station 1 is good reason for the 1961 beginning because a ranging from 81 to 108 mi, all less than the 122 mi number of stations lacked earlier data. They did not distance to original control station 6. Names, use post-seeding years 1997-2001. Observations locations and other information concerning the 14 from 1997 were discarded because of "contamination potential control stations are given in Table 1 where concerns" about seeding in the adjacent Payette Basin stations 1-7 correspond to stations A-G in Table 5 of north of the their target basin. Yet by their approach GS. Both their letter identifiers and the numbers 1997 had a 13% positive departure in the Boise used in this study are included in Table 1. The Basin, well above 2 of the 4 seeded seasons. GS additional 7 stations added in this study, numbers 8- noted that the mean of years 1998-2001 was 2% 14, are noted as "new." NCRS identifiers in Tables 1 above predictions from the regression equation, near and 2 which end with "S" indicate a SNOTEL station the expected value of zero departure. as of 2001; others are long-term snow courses. The right-most column in Table 1 refers to the R-value GS stated that their target and control stations were between the mean April 1st SWE values of the 10 selected after the first winter of seeding and remained original target stations of Table 2, and observations unchanged the following three winters. Therefore, from individual control stations, for the 32 winter some concern of bias exists, especially since their historical period. first winter's evaluation showed a 16.5% SWE
28 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
Table 1. Names and locations of control stations with distances referenced to target station 1. The 7 stations used by GS are identified both by their letter I.D.s and by numbers 1-7. Stations 8-14 were added in this study. Correlation coefficients were calculated between April 1st SWE accumulation at each station and the mean for target stations 1-10, for the 1961-92 historical period.
Station Station Name NRCS Distance Elevation Latitude Longitude Correlation I.D. I.D. (miles) feet (msl) deg-min deg-min Coefficient 1-A Banner Summit 15E11S 38 7040 44 18 115 14 0.973 2-B Big Creek Summit 15E02S 67 6580 44 38 115 48 0.964 3-C Cozy Cove 15E08S 42 5380 44 17 115 39 0.861 4-D Deadwood Summit 15E04S 58 6860 44 33 115 34 0.938 5-E Mud Flat 16G07S 104 5730 42 36 116 33 0.629 6-F Red Canyon AM 16G11 122 6650 42 26 116 50 0.588 7-G Silver City 16F03 91 6400 43 00 116 44 0.815 8-new Bear Saddle 16E10S 104 6180 44 36 116 58 0.876 9-new Bogus Basin 16F02 81 6540 42 46 116 06 0.899 10-new Brundage Reservoir 16D09S 100 6300 45 03 116 08 0.941 11-new Secesh Summit 15D01S 105 6520 45 11 115 58 0.938 12-new South Mountain 16G01S 108 6500 42 46 116 54 0.714 13-new Squaw Flat 16E05S 86 6240 44 46 116 15 0.874 14-new Succor Creek AM 16F06 92 6100 43 08 116 52 0.375
Table 2. Similar to Table 1 but names and locations of target stations with distances referenced to station 1. Stations 1-10 were used by GS while 11 and 12 were added in this study.
Station Station Name NRCS Distance Elevation Latitude Longitude I.D. I.D. (mile) feet (msl) deg-min deg-min 1 Atlanta Summit 15F04S 0 7580 43 45 115 14 2 Camas Creek Division 15F09 34 5710 43 16 115 21 3 Dollarhide Summit 14F08S 30 8420 43 36 114 40 4 Galena 14F17S 30 7440 43 53 114 40 5 Galena Summit 14F12S 27 8780 43 51 114 43 6 Graham Guard Station 15F14S 14 5690 43 57 115 16 7 Moores Creek Summit 15F01 25 6100 43 55 115 40 8 Soldier Ranger Station 14F11S 28 5740 43 29 114 49 9 Trinity Mountain 15F05S 13 7770 43 38 115 26 10 Vienna Mine 14F04S 19 8960 43 48 114 51 11-new Couch Summit #2 14F18 27 6840 43 31 114 48 12-new Jackson Peak 15E09S 23 7070 44 03 115 27
A search was also made for any additional stations downloaded from the NRCS ftp site for all stations within the target area basin. The area of interest is listed in Tables 1 and 2. Most locations currently use approximately between 43 and 44 deg latitude and SNOTEL stations equipped with snow (pressure) 114 deg 40 min to 116 deg longitude. Two stations pillows for SWE measurement. The remaining were found besides the 10 used by GS. One is near stations are long-term snow courses manually target station 8 and the other is just within the north sampled on or near the first of the month. In fact, boundary of the Boise Basin. Reasons for not SNOTEL observations represent a combination of including these additional potential control and target actual pillow observations since these telemetry stations were not discussed by GS. It may be that stations were installed, plus estimations of earlier once a grouping of stations was found with the high observations based on nearby snow course R-value of 0.98, there seemed little point in measurements. Estimation was done by the NRCS considering other combinations. based on snow course and nearby pillow observations for the periods both were obtained. Almost all pillow Snow course and snow pillow observations were observations used in this study began in 1981-82, and
April 2003 SUPER AND HEIMBACH 29 nearby snow courses were discontinued during 1990- 92, providing approximately a decade of co-located measurements from both systems. These changes in measurement method and specific observing locations must introduce some unexplained variance.
All downloaded data were carefully double checked against the original ftp site data to insure that no errors had been made; for example, by downloading observations for the wrong station or month. Once a serious melt problem prior to April 1st was recognized, measurements from February 1st and March 1st were downloaded in addition to April 1st readings.
4. INITIAL ANALYSIS REVIEW AND P-VALUE CALCULATIONS
4a. Repeat of GS Initial Analysis
The first historical regression analysis done for this Figure 1. Linear Regression Plot for the Means of 7 paper simply repeated the station combinations and Control Stations and 10 Target Stations using April use of the same 32 winter historical period to test that 1st Snow Water Equivalent (inches). the same observations were used by GS and the current study. In fact, slight differences resulted in The regression equation is plotted as a solid line. The the intercept, A, and slope, B, of the regression 4 labeled seeded winters are shown by star symbols equation of the form Y = A + B (X). Coefficients A while crosses are used for the 5 labeled post-seeded and B were reported by GS as -1.68 and 1.16, winters, 1997-2001. While the seeded 1993 and respectively, with an R-value of 0.98. The present 1995 positive departures are among the highest study calculated A as -1.368 and B as 1.148 with R shown, percentage departures for two nonseeded equal to 0.980. A plot of the two equations showed winters, 1963 (unlabeled) and 2001 (labeled as 1), them to be almost identical. Calculated departures well exceeded those values at 27 and 28%, from the regression equations for the 4 seeded respectively. Departures of 13% or more also winters had minor differences. Values calculated for resulted from 1965, 1986, 1988 and 1997 this paper follow with GS values in parentheses: observations. The 1994 and 1996 seeded winter 1993 = 16.0% (16.5%); 1994 = 7.8% (6.5%); 1995 = departures were less than those values. Thus, 6 of the 17.6% (17.4%) and 1996 = 5.0% (5.0%). The four- total of 37 nonseeded winters (16%) had similar or winter mean, stated as 12% by GS, is actually 11.4% greater positive departures than the 2 largest of the 4 using their individual values, very similar to the seeded winters. But since all 4 seeded winters had 11.6% value calculated for the current study. The positive departures, and they were the only 4 reason for the slight differences is unknown, and the consecutive winters with positive departures for the same values resulted from three independent software entire period 1961-2001, seeding may have been programs used in this study. In any event, essentially effective from the evidence presented thus far. the same data were used by both studies, a point worth verifying. Unless specifically stated otherwise, An analysis which suggests the presence of a all results to follow are based on the data and "seeding signal" does not necessarily imply calculations used in this study. confidence that the signal is real. Analyses of weather modification programs, both research and Figure 1 shows the mean control-target pairs for all operational, require searching for a seeding signal individual winters. All nonseeded regression which is far smaller, typically by at least an order of equations calculated in this study are for the same 32 magnitude, than the natural variability among winters used by GS (1961-92) unless otherwise response variables. Simply comparing precipitation stated. April 1st observations for those winters are from seeded units (seasonal SWE accumulation in shown by solid dots, unlabeled to minimize clutter. this paper) to that of nonseeded units can be inconclusive because of the high variance among units. More sensitive methods are required. The 30 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35 historical regression is one means to remove some of provide an approximate framework within which to the natural variance thereby making any seeding consider whether the Idaho operational seeding signal more obvious. results should be considered even suggestive. For example, if a particular P-value is larger than 0.05, 4b. Probability Levels From Rerandomization. that result can likely be rejected as not even remotely suggestive. A P-value of 0.01 might suggest the It is desirable to determine the probability (P-value) particular result is worth further consideration, but that a suggested seeding effect is real and not due to does not constitute "proof" of seeding effectiveness random selection of test units. Several robust in the absence of randomization. (sensitive) nonparametric tests, which do not require assumptions about the distribution of the response Monte Carlo evaluations used samples from pooled variable, are available for randomized experiments. seeded and nonseeded pairs of control-target data The Wilcoxan rank-sum test has been widely applied. from 1961-96 by applying calls to a random number generator. One permutation consisted of randomly An effective technique for estimating the P-value of a drawing pairs of control-target samples from the pool possible seeding signal, without need to parameterize without replacement until all 36 were selected. The the precipitation, is to rerandomize the pool of seeded first 32 were designated as nonseeded and were used and nonseeded samples. This approach is often to derive regression coefficients. The four remaining called the Monte Carlo technique (e.g., Dennis et al. pairs were designated as seeded, and their residuals 1975). The pseudo-statistical results from the as well as their mean were derived from the rerandomized permutations are compared to the regression equation. This process was repeated 1000 actual results to establish the significance of a times and the residuals were compared to those from statistical result. For example, if the actual residual the actual data set. One thousand permutations gives of a seeded experimental unit is equal to or exceeded an acceptable approximation to an exhaustive by 5% of the rerandomized pseudo residuals, then rerandomization of all possible permutations because one can be confident that the null hypothesis can be all are equally likely to occur. The P-value is that rejected with a P-value of 0.05 without making a type portion of the permutations which had mean residuals I error that a seeding effect exists when there is none. as large as or greater than the actual observed This assumes the test is one-tailed; that is, seeding residual (Dennis et al. ibid.). can only increase precipitation, not decrease it. One-tailed P-values were calculated for the control- Monte Carlo testing has been used to estimate P- target sites selected by GS for the repeat analysis values for operational seeding (e.g., Griffith et al. discussed in Section 4a. The resulting P-values were: 1997). However, it is important to recognize that this 1993 = 0.08; 1994 = 0.19; 1995 = 0.04; 1996 = 0.23 approach is not really valid and "rerandomization" is with the mean = 0.01. Only the 1995 winter had a P- not technically correct in the absence of initial value less than 0.05, usually considered "significant" randomizaion. P-values cannot be calculated with in testing of randomized weather modification precision even during exploratory analysis of experiments. However, the mean P-value of 0.01 randomized experiments (Gabriel 2000). He notes suggests, but does not prove, that there might have that, "Data from cloud seeding operations must be been a real seeding effect. Based only on these used very circumspectly, and can never have the results, GS were perhaps justified in suggesting that same evidential weight as do data from randomized Idaho operational seeding increased the April 1st experiments." Gabriel (ibid.) goes on to state that it SWE accumulation by an average near 12%. has been well known and documented from the early days of cloud seeding that, "--- operators cannot 5. THE SNOW MELT PROBLEM produce conclusive evidence of the effect of their operations." Calculating P-values by Monte Carlo 5a. Pre-April 1st Snow Melt and Ramifications techniques does not change the basic fact that nonrandomized operational seeding programs are not It was noticed that some control stations had frequent randomized experiments, and, therefore, are not low SWE values on April 1st, and even zero values protected from unforeseen sources of bias. (no snow existed) for some winters. Controls 5 and 6 and, to a lesser degree, station 7 were especially With that major caveat, P-values were calculated for prone to low readings. For example, station 5 had 7 this study, to be used only for general guidance with zero values in the 32 winter historical period while full realization that that they are not totally valid and station 6 had 5 zeros, both clear indications that are likely overly optimistic. Their use here is only to significant snow melt had occurred prior to the April
April 2003 SUPER AND HEIMBACH 31
1st sampling date. Of all 14 potential controls in effective, similar percentage departures would be Table 1, stations 5 and 6 have the lowest R-values expected on both March 1st and April 1st as there is with the exception of added station 14. It was no reason to expect exceptionally high cloud seeding suspected that these low R-values were partially potential during March. caused by late winter melt affecting these control stations much more than the target station mean. The R-value resulting from use of March 1st These findings suggested that snow melt prior to observations was a respectable 0.983, above the April 1st was frequent and significant at some control 0.980 value for April 1st data from the same stations. stations and possibly some target stations as well. Individual seeded winter departures for 1993-96 were 3.9%, 3.1%, 7.2% and 1.0%, respectively, with a Presence of significant snow melt prior to the mean of 3.8%. The individual seasonal range from 1- seasonal sampling date can introduce considerable 7% indicates considerable variability in seeding uncertainty into the historical regression method. effectiveness and/or unstable results from this The main problem is introduction of a second statistical method. The mean value was only 1/3 of important variable besides snowfall which affects that suggested by April 1st observations. This SWE accumulation but is unrelated to seeding. The finding by itself must cast serious doubt on the 12% impact of melt can easily have more impact than mean seasonal SWE increase claimed to result from seeding effects, stated by GS to average 2.5 inch seeding. The P-values estimated for these results by SWE. When frequent and significant melt occurs the rerandomization method discussed above were: prior to the sampling date, the historical regression 1993 = 0.30; 1994 = 0.35; 1995 = 0.14; 1996 = 0.45 relationship is no longer valid for evaluation of and mean = 0.29. None of the P-values begin to seeding effectiveness. The relationship is then based approach the usual P = 0.05 criteria so suggestions of not only on widespread snow accumulation but on an seasonal seeding effects up to March 1st cannot be unknown snow melt pattern which varies among considered to have any statistical significance. In stations and seasons, even when strong target-control other words, there is a high probability that these relationships are found. The degree of pre-sampling individual and mean departures were chance events. melt during an individual seeded season will affect departures from the target-control relationship in 5c. Estimation of March Melt Frequencies unknown ways, complicating the search for seeding effects. Melt will be a particular problem when it An attempt was made to assess March snow melt by effects the snow water content differently over target comparing March 1st and April 1st observations for and control areas, as in this study where high altitude all target and control stations and all 41 winters of control stations were not available. record from 1961-2001. Finding less SWE on April 1st is a certain indication of melt during March. It is Snow melt during late winter and early spring is impractical to adjust March melt by precipitation generally dependent upon the prevailing weather, and because most of the stations did not have nearby is enhanced by warm, sunny days or widespread measurements during much of the historical period. rains. Moreover, melt is a function of several terrain- Furthermore, gauges do not indicate whether the related parameters, especially elevation, but also precipitation is snow, which enhances SWE slope, aspect, local exposure and relationship to accumulation, or rain, which decreases it. higher terrain (e.g., foehn winds). Thus, significant melt introduces serious unexplained variance into If the unknown snowfall exceeded the water content historical regression analysis, degrading the search of any March melt, the April 1st value would be for possible seeding effects in an unknowable greater even when melt occurred. Therefore, this manner. These concerns were partially responsible approach to snow melt estimation is an for Super and Heimbach (1983) rejecting April 1st underestimate. Nevertheless, subtracting the two snow course data, and instead using March 1st monthly measurements, and calculating the observations, as part of their analyses of the Bridger frequency of lower April 1st readings, provides a Range Experiment in the colder Montana climate. conservative first approximation of March melt. The same approach was used to approximate February 5b. Repeating Initial Analysis with March 1st Data melt. Resulting melt frequency estimates for February and March are listed in Table 3. For A simple test of potential impacts of March melt is to example, Banner Summit had 12% melt for March duplicate the analysis discussed above, but using indicating that 5 of the 41 winters had measurable March 1st observations. If the seeding was truly melt between March 1st and April 1st readings. 32 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
Table 3. Approximate and Conservative February and March Snow Melt Frequencies at Control and Target Stations.
Control Elevation February March Target Elevation February March No. (feet) Melt % Melt % No. (feet) Melt % Melt % 01-A 7040 5 12 01 7580 0 2 02-B 6580 2 0 02 5710 23 66 03-C 5380 0 44 03 8420 0 0 04-D 6860 2 10 04 7440 0 7 05-E 5730 22 73 05 8780 0 2 06-F 6650 37 78 06 5690 5 46 07-G 6400 8 46 07 6100 2 12 08-new 6180 0 10 08 5740 15 78 09-new 6540 2 20 09 7770 0 7 10-new 6300 0 12 10 8960 0 0 11-new 6520 2 5 11-new 6840 5 24 12-new 6500 5 37 12-new 7070 5 2 13-new 6240 2 12 14-new 6100 22 59 concern that winters with positive departures from A strong relationship between March melt and the regression equation of Fig. 1 might have tended elevation was found for the target stations of Table 3 to have higher than usual control station snow melts. with 64% of the melt frequency variance explained by linear regression with elevation. In contrast, only Examination of SWE differences between March 1st 17% was explained for control stations. Major and April 1st at control stations 5, 6 and 7, all highly reasons for this difference are likely the 3270 ft prone to melt, revealed that seasonal positive elevation range for target stations, twice that of the departures were associated with March melt at those 1600 ft range for controls, and the fact that mean and stations. Over the 41 seasons of record, 16 had the median target elevations, both near 7200 ft, are above same or less SWE on April 1st at all three of those the highest available control station located at 7070 stations. Nine of the ten seasons from 1992-2001 ft. Mean and median values for controls are near were in that category including all 4 of the seeded 6400 ft, or 800 ft lower than corresponding target years. Eight of these ten seasons had positive values. The significantly lower elevations of control departures from the regression equation including all stations makes them particularly susceptible to March 4 of the seeded years. Possible reasons for this melt. All stations below 6000 ft had frequent March increase in melt frequency with time (global melt. warming, extended drought) are beyond the scope of this paper. The important point is that this evidence Table 3 indicates that several stations, both control of increased melt frequency during the past decade and target, had frequent March melt. Some even had strongly suggests that the historical regression frequent melt during February including 2 of the 7 relationship was not constant with time, one of the controls and 2 of the 10 target stations used by GS. major assumptions behind applying it. Dennis (1980) Four of these original control stations and 3 of the expressed the view that, "The most serious difficulty original targets had March melt frequencies in the with the historical regression method has to do with high 44 to 78% range. This shows that even the the stability in time of the target-control conservative March melt estimate was very common relationship." While the evidence here suggests at some locations occurring approximately on 1/2 to warmer, dryer winters in the past decade, local 3/4 of the seasons. Fifteen of the total of 26 control effects such as tree growth, forest cutting and disease and target stations had greater than 10% March melt or fires can also modify target-control relationships frequencies. The frequent and widespread March over time. melt must have introduced considerable unexplained variance into regression analyses using April 1st 5d. Relationship between March Melt and Target- observations, no matter what the target-control R- Control R-values values. Since 4/7 (57%) of the original controls but only 3/10 (30%) of the target station had very Correlation coefficients were calculated between the frequent March melt, mean control values were more following individual control station variables; their affected than mean target values. This fact raised the R-value with the April 1st target mean, elevation, and
April 2003 SUPER AND HEIMBACH 33 distance from target station 1; all listed in Table 1, and 1995 and to the 5% positive departure found for and melt frequency during March, given in Table 3. 1996. A number of nonseeded seasons with high For each set of 14 pairs, a correlation coefficient positive departures in Fig. 1 also had high departures would have to exceed +/- 0.53 to be significant at the when only stations 5, 6 and 7 were used as controls. 0.05 level and +/- 0.66 at the 0.01 level. The only variable pair to meet either criterion was between Another regression (not shown) which used the March melt frequency and the target-control R- remaining controls 1, 2, 3 and 4, resulted in a values, resulting in R = -0.84. That high value respectable R-value of 0.971. Three of the 4 seeded indicates their relationship was both strong and seasons had positive departures and one was negative statistically significant. Thus, 70% of the variance in but none were outside the general scatter of data April 1st control station R-values with the target points about the regression equation. That is, mean was explained simply by the frequency of regression analysis based on the 4 of the original 7 snowmelt during March. In general, the more controls nearest the target, and with the highest frequent March melting was at a given control individual associations with the target, provided no station, the less its correlation with the target area. evidence of seeding effectiveness. This is not a surprising result and indicates the need for caution in using control stations, individually It can be concluded that March melt at control poorly correlated with the target, for historical stations 5, 6 and 7 had a significant effect on the regression analysis. regression analysis using April 1st observations. The impact was certainly substantial enough to confuse 5e. Effects of High Frequency Melt Control Stations any attempt to detect SWE changes due to seeding.
An attempt was made to better quantify the effects of 6. COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS USING using April 1st observations from control stations 5, 6 MARCH 1ST OBSERATIONS and 7. The percentage departure of all 41 individual winters was calculated from the target-control Based on the above evidence, the authors concluded regression equation plotted in Fig. 1, the latter being that April 1st SWE observations are generally essentially the same analysis reported by GS. These unsuitable for historical regression analyses of winter percentage departures were correlated against the orographic cloud seeding effectiveness in the climate mean difference, in inches, between April 1st and of southern Idaho. The only possible exceptions March 1st SWE at controls 5, 6 and 7. A relationship might be the limited number of stations in Table 3 significant at the 0.01 percent level was found with with very low March melt frequencies. Melting at an R-value of -0.49, explaining about 1/4 of the locations with generally lower elevations and more variance. While 3/4 of the variance in not explained exposure will reduce their April 1st SWE even while by this relationship, it is an important result, based as SWE values are increasing at higher elevation sites, it is on only 3 of the 7 control stations. Those 3 had especially when the latter have more local protection some of the lowest correlations with target means as from winds and solar radiation. Attempts to adjust listed in Table 1. the April 1st data, or to severely limit the number of stations used, would create their own serious Plotting on a large-scale topographic map revealed uncertainties. that stations 5 and 6 are on the broad Columbia Plateau with terrain uncharacteristic of the target area It is physically more reasonable to base regression mountains. Station 7 is within a small mountain analyses on March 1st rather than April 1st range rising from the plateau which likely explains its measurements, especially if stations with frequent somewhat higher R-value. A figure similar to Fig. 1 February melt are discarded. Admittedly, this was plotted (not shown) with the X-axis based on the approach reduces the fraction of the operational mean of control stations 5, 6 and 7. The resulting R- seeding season evaluated. But if the seeding method value was only 0.771 with much scatter of individual was truly effective, the "signal" should be in the season data pairs. Seeded seasons 1993-96 had March 1st observations at least as predominately as departures of 18, -21, 50 and 16%, respectively. It in observations a month later, complicated by the will be recalled that the original analysis shows serious melt issue and possibly by a higher altitude of especially large positive departures near 17% for SLW cloud sufficiently cold for AgI to be effective. 1993 and 1995 but values less than half that for 1994 and 1996. These findings suggest that inclusion of It was decided to expand analysis of March 1st high melt frequency stations 5, 6 and 7 contributed to observations to all available control and target the large positive departures reported by GS for 1993 stations in Table 3, with one caveat: use of stations 34 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35 with frequent February snow melt would create some remaining control stations, the means of all possible of uncertainties discussed in the previous section. groupings of 1, 2, 3 --- 8, 9 and 10 control stations Accordingly, a somewhat arbitrary rule was were correlated against the target means. This established to use only stations with no more than 5% comprehensive approach provided 1230 permutations February melt frequency. That resulted in discarding of target-control relationships. target stations 2 and 8 and controls 5, 6, 7 and 14. Table 1 shows that 3 of these 4 controls were among Table 4 shows the resulting highest R-values for each the lowest April 1st correlations with the target area, grouping by number of stations. Individual and mean and that only one other control station (12) had an R- departures are given as percentages for the 4 seeded value lower than station 7. winters. In addition, the bottom row provides values for the highest R-value (0.981) achieved without use The historical period was also expanded to 36 of control station 1, most likely to be contaminated. seasons by including post-seeded seasons 1998-2001. The number of combinations (regressions) possible The 1997 season was not included because of seeding within each grouping by number of stations is listed. in the adjacent Payette River Basin. The intension was to conduct the most physically reasonable and The mean positive departures of Table 4 are seen to comprehensive historical regression analysis possible be in the range 1-3% with the exception of the with existing SWE observations. grouping without control station 1 which was 3.7%. Negative departures are seen for seeded winter 1994 Mean target area March 1st SWE was calculated for except for regression with a single control station. the 10 remaining stations of Table 3, which included Groupings of 3, 4, 5 and 6 stations all provided "new" stations 11 and 12, all having February melt maximum R-values greater than the GS analysis frequencies no higher than 5%. These means were value of 0.98. The highest R-value is 0.983, and the used in regressions with groupings of the remaining other three groupings are 0.981-0.982, all indicating 10 control stations listed in Table 3 which met the strong relationships. The grouping with the highest same criteria. R-value explained almost 97% of the variance in target mean SWE accumulation on March 1st. The R-values and percentage departures from linear results of that case are shown in Fig. 2 where only regression equations were calculated for every seasons not included in the regression equation are possible combination of control stations. In order to labeled to reduce clutter. Figure 2 provides no determine the highest R-value available from all 10 apparent evidence of seeding effectiveness.
Table 4. Summary of all available combinations of 10 control stations against the mean of 10 target stations after discarding stations with February melt frequencies higher than 5%. March 1st SWE observations were used from 36 nonseeded seasons. Results are shown for the highest R-value in each grouping by number of stations. Percentage departures are given from individual regression equations for each seeded winter and for their mean. The bottom row lists results for the highest R-value attained without inclusion of control station 1.
No. of Combin- Max. R Control 1993 1994 1995 1996 Mean Stations ations -value Stations (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 1 10 0.972 1 4 1 7 -11 0.2 2 45 0.979 1 2 5 -1 3 -4 0.9 3 120 0.982 1 2 3 5 -1 5 5 3.3 4 210 0.982 1 2 3 9 3 -10 5 11 2.2 5 252 0.983 1 2 3 9 11 6 -6 4 7 2.8 6 252 0.981 1 2 3 9 11 13 5 -7 5 8 2.7 7 210 0.980 1 2 3 4 9 11 12 2 -3 2 5 1.6 8 120 0.979 1 2 3 4 9 11 12 13 2 -4 2 6 1.7 9 10 0.978 1 2 3 4 9 10 11 12 13 4 -4 5 6 2.6 10 1 0.976 1 2 3 4 8 9 10 11 12 13 2 -4 3 8 2.2 4 0.981 2 3 9 11 6 -7 4 12 3.7
April 2003 SUPER AND HEIMBACH 35
impressive. All 4 seeded winters had positive departures within the somewhat consistent range of about 5 to 17%, and averaged near 11.5%, a substantial seasonal SWE increase. These results were based on a strong target-control relationship which explained 96% of the variance.
In an attempt to better understand how such an apparently impressive but false suggestion of seeding effectiveness could result, it was decided to analyze the April 1st observations in more detail. The reader should understand that the analyses of this section are flawed by the melt problem. Therefore, any statistical suggestions should be discarded. The purpose of this section is not to evaluate seeding effectiveness but to help demonstrate pitfalls to be avoided in future applications of the historical regression method. It will be further demonstrated that all stations and procedures need to be selected prior to seeding project initiation, and should be Figure 2. Linear Regression Plot for the Means of based on physically sound criteria. Of course, this low-melt stations, 5 Control and 10 Target, using information must also be made public to enhance the March 1st Snow Water Equivalent (inches). credibility of later statistical suggestions.
The 1997 season, when seeding was conducted in the Regression equations and seeded season departures Payette Basin immediately north of the Boise Basin, were calculated for all possible permutations from the has one of the largest positive departures in Fig 2. pool of 14 available control stations listed in Table 3. That result suggests 1997 seeding was not effective Using all combinations of 1, 2, 3 --- 12, 13 and 14 because control stations 1 and 3 were within the stations resulted in 16,383 separate regressions. seeded basin and control station 2 was just north of it. Target means were based on the 10 original stations Increased Payette Basin snowfall should have placed used by GS after preliminary analyses showed little the 1997 data pair to the right of the regression line. impact from including the 2 additional stations added in this study (one had serious snow melt). The Rerandomization was used as previously discussed to original 1961-92 historical period was again used. estimate probabilities that percentage departures for Both steps make these analyses more consistent with the block of 4 seeded winters were statistically the initial GS analysis. significant. The lowest P-value associated with Table 4 was 0.27 for the grouping of control stations Table 5 lists the combination of stations which 2, 3 9 and 11. All other P-values ranged between provided the highest R-value within each grouping by 0.31 and 0.49, the latter equivalent to flipping a coin. number of stations, provided that at least one was Clearly, the results of Table 4 and associated P- equal to or greater than 0.980, the value achieved by values provide no basis for considering the Boise the GS analysis. R-values are listed to 4 decimal Basin cloud seeding project to have been effective in places to better demonstrate how little they varied. snowfall augmentation up to March 1st. These The number of individual regressions calculated is results are totally at odds with the findings of GS listed under "combinations" for each grouping of 3 who used April 1st observations. through 10 stations, given that 14 were available. Percentage departures are listed for individual seeded 7. FURTHER EXPLORATION WITH APRIL 1ST seasons and the mean of the seeded seasons. The OBSERVATIONS bottom row lists the same information for the single regression providing the highest R-value without Previous discussion has demonstrated the futility of inclusion of control 1, most likely to be using April 1st SWE accumulations frequently contaminated. P-values were calculated for 4 season influenced by snow melt to assess cloud seeding means as previously described, using Monte Carlo effectiveness in southern Idaho. But taken at face techniques, as listed in the right-most column. value, the results reported by GS were quite 36 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
Table 5. Summary of highest R-value statistics for indicated groupings by number of stations, using all 14 available control stations and means of the 10 original target stations with April 1st observations. The minimum acceptable R-value was 0.980 which was not achieved by use of fewer than 3 or more than 10 control stations. Percent departures from individual regression equations are given for the four seeded winters and for their mean. Control station numbers are listed for each regression. Listed P-values are for the four season means.
No. of Combin- Max R- Control 1993 1994 1995 1996 Mean P-value Stations ations Value Stations (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 3 364 0.9830 1 2 9 3 -11 11 1 1.0 0.43 4 1001 0.9844 1 2 4 7 9 7 10 -1 6.5 0.08 5 2002 0.9856 1 2 4 5 7 11 10 13 -1 8.2 0.03 6 3003 0.9842 1 2 4 5 7 9 9 -1 14 -1 5.2 0.15 7 3432 0.9833 1 2 4 5 7 9 11 12 4 13 0 7.3 0.04 8 3003 0.9821 1 2 4 5 7 9 11 13 12 6 12 3 8.2 0.05 9 2002 0.9808 1 2 4 7 9 10 11 13 14 6 5 11 2 6.1 0.11 10 1001 0.9796 1 2 4 5 7 9 10 11 13 14 8 6 13 2 6.9 0.09 4 0.9816 2 4 7 9 7 -5 13 1 3.8 0.22
The grouping of all 14 controls yielded an R-value of 0.63, and station 7 with a mediocre R-value of 0.82, 0.967, well below the 306 different combinations that also show up in most groupings. The latter two equaled or exceeded 0.980. Table 5 shows that the stations had high melt frequencies. Including poorly highest R-value of 0.9856 was achieved with a associated control stations which marginally improve grouping of 5 of the 7 original control stations. Five, the mean group correlation is a suspect approach. It but not all 7, of the original controls were "selected" has been shown that frequent melt was an important for the grouping which provided the highest R-value factor in limiting individual R-values for stations 5 with 7 stations. While the mean departure was 8.2% and 7. Inclusion of these two "melt problem" stations for the regression with the highest R-value, it is apparently had the effect of slightly increasing R- difficult to reconcile the -1% departure during 1996 values while dramatically increasing seeded winter with the positive departures of the 3 previous seeded positive departures, thereby confusing the search for winters. A P-value of 0.03 was calculated for this seeding effects. Super and Heimbach (1983) rejected particular station grouping which yielded the highest control snow courses which individually had R- R-value of all 16,383 regressions. But, even ignoring values less than 0.88 in their Bridger Range the melt problem and lack of randomization, it must Experiment analyses. be questioned whether that low P-value would mean much in the context of Table 5. For example, very Similar R-values resulted from each grouping of slight R-value differences of 0.9844 and 0.9842 were Table 5. There is probably no real significance in the associated with groupings of 4 and 6 control stations, minor differences since explained variance differs by respectively, compared with the highest value of only about 1%. Slight measurement errors could 0.9856 for 5 control stations. The variance explained cause greater changes. Examination of the range of differs by less than 0.3% among these 3 highest R- individual winter departures for the five groupings values, yet the P-values for the 4 and 6 station with highest R-values shows extremes from -11 to groupings increase to 0.08 and 0.15, respectively. +14% with means from 1.0 to 8.2%. Admittedly, the While two other groupings had P-values of 0.05 or next lowest individual departure was -1% which lower, another two had values of 0.43 and 0.22. This occurred four times. This variability among fact also shows a lack of stability in the results since individual season departures reduces confidence in all four or those R-values are quite similar. the mean results. This demonstrates the importance of publishing individual season results, to establish Original controls 1, 2 and 4, are included in most context, besides showing overall project results. groupings of Table 5. This might be expected since controls 1, 2 and 4 were all highly correlated with the Of the 306 regression equations out of 16,383 target, having individual R-values of 0.94 or higher permutations which resulted in R-values of at least (Table 1). Controls 9 and 11, added in this study, 0.980, only 8 had mean departures of at least 11.5%. were also part of several groupings in Table 5, with This criterion was used because it rounds to 12%, the individual R-values of 0.90 and 0.94, respectively. mean seeding effect reported by GS. The highest Yet poorly correlated station 5 with low R-value of mean among the 8 values was 12.7%. None of these
April 2003 SUPER AND HEIMBACH 37 cases produced the highest R-value in their station with consistent seeding effectiveness. Moreover, the size grouping and, therefore, are not included in reader is reminded of the major caveat of Sec. 4b Table 5. One of these cases was, of course, the regarding P-values applied to nonrandomized grouping of 7 original controls. Seven of these cases projects. included original controls 1, 2, and 4 plus 5, 6 and 7 (in 5 runs), or at least 6 and 7. The only exception In summary, the mean departure was reduced to 2/3 was a run with stations 1, 2, 5 and 11 which had a of the 12% value based on the longer historical mean of 12.1%, but individual winter departures period, and all individual seasons were also reduced, ranged widely from 1 to 19%. It is not surprising that especially 1994 and 1996 where departures were various combinations of the same stations were about 1/3 and 1/2 of initial results. These findings, involved in calculation of similar results. based on a shorter but likely more representative nonseeded period bracketing the seeded years, To summarize, only 8 regressions out of the 16,383 suggest serious lack of stability from application of possible combinations with the 14 available controls this method. Moreover, overly optimistic P-values provided the following: (1) somewhat consistent from rerandomization were not impressive. positive departures for each seeded winter, (2) a mean of at least 12%, almost the highest observed, 8. STATION SELECTION FOR DIFFERENT and (3) a high R-value of at least 0.980. Results RESULTS presented by GS were from one of these 8 combinations, and the only such regression based on Table 6 was developed to demonstrate that a wide their 7 controls. It is possible that they made a range of results can be found when testing a large fortuitous choice of control stations which provided a number of control stations combinations. A search high R-value. Apparently, they were unaware of the was made to find the case with the minimum mean seriousness of the March melt problem. departure in each grouping up to 14 control stations which had R-values of at least 0.980; that is, within The issue of long-term stability of the target-control the 306 regressions discussed above. It will be relationship was raised in Section 5c, where evidence recalled from Table 5 that groupings with less than 3 was presented that melt was unusually frequent at or more than 10 stations did not have R-values that some control stations during the past decade. Almost high. It is seen that groupings with 3 through 7 all SNOTEL stations used in this study were in stations have high R-values of 0.982 or 0.983, similar operation by 1982 so records no longer had to be to values in Table 5. Admittedly, no run showed a estimated from nearby snow courses. Accordingly, a negative mean departure. But it might be pondered regression was calculated with the original target and whether the suggestions of seeding ineffectiveness in control stations and April 1st observations, but for a Table 6 are less valid than the limited positive more recent "historical" period chosen as 1982-92 suggestions of Table 5 or the original analysis plus 1998-2001. These 15 seasons provided a reported by GS. The (unlisted) P-values for the remarkable R-value between target and control means in Table 6 were unimpressive, ranging from means of 0.988, the highest seen in this study. 0.08 to 0.53. One could certainly make the argument Departures of the seeded winters were: 1993 = that control station 14 should not be included in 12.8%; 1994 = 2.2%; 1995 = 14.7%; 1996 = 2.5% analyses, as it is poorly associated with the target with mean of 8.0%. One nonseeded season, 2001, area. Yet that station is repeatedly found in Table 6. had a departure larger than 1993 and 1995 at 15.6%. But the same argument can be made against use of Three other nonseeded winters ranged from 10 to control station 5, and to a lesser extent station 7, 11%. The 1994 and 1996 seeded seasons were well which repeatedly appear in both Tables 5 and 6. within the general scatter with several nonseeded seasons exhibiting larger positive departures. P- The major point of the preceding discussion and values calculated by rerandomization follow: 1993 = Table 6 is that one can "mine" the results from large 0.10; 1994 = 0.29; 1995 = 0.06; 1996 = 0.28 and 4 numbers of permutations to either show evidence to season mean = 0.045. Thus, only one of the four support the hypothesis that seeding was effective, or individual seasons was near the 0.05 significance to reject it. Of course, such selection of results is in level, and the mean was just below it at 0.045. The total opposition to valid science. But the approach apparent significance of the mean departure is likely used illustrates one of the serious pitfalls in due in part to the seeded winters presenting the only interpretation of claimed results from the historical 4 consecutive positive departures in the data set. But regression method applied to cloud seeding. Unless only 2 of 4 seeded seasons had large positive both target and control station selection, and the departures, making the results difficult to reconcile 38 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
Table 6. Similar to Table 5 but chosen by the lowest mean departure within each grouping by number of stations, for R-values of 0.980 or greater. April 1st SWE observations were used. See text for details.
No. of R-value Control 1993 1994 1995 1996 Mean Stations Stations (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 3 0.983 1 2 9 3 -11 11 1 1.0 4 0.983 1 2 4 14 1 10 3 -3 2.8 5 0.983 1 2 4 9 14 1 -2 6 -3 0.4 6 0.982 1 2 4 7 9 14 0 -3 9 -1 1.2 7 0.982 1 2 4 7 9 13 14 1 -1 9 2 2.9 8 0.980 1 2 4 5 7 9 10 14 4 0 14 -1 4.2 9 0.980 1 2 4 5 7 9 10 13 14 5 2 13 2 5.3 10 0.980 1 2 4 5 7 9 10 11 13 14 8 6 13 2 6.9 objective reasons for station selection, are made transport and dispersion of adequate concentrations public prior to seeding operations, post-project of effective AgI is the major problem of winter analysis results should be viewed with considerable orographic cloud seeding (Rangno 1986). Reynolds skepticism. et al. (1989) reported on 1,681 individual silver-in- snow samples from 3 long-term operational project 9. POSSIBLE REASONS FOR SEEDING targets plus the target of one special generator INEFFECTIVENESS network. Less than 15% of the samples indicated any silver greater than background. Reynolds et al. (ibid.) This brief section was added after each reviewer concluded that, "These are disturbing results, even if suggested inclusion of some discussion about why one considers only scavenging, in that the AgI must revised analyses of the Idaho operational program not have passed over large regions of the target during failed to demonstrate increased snowfall. Because of precipitation events." Similar poor targeting results the absence of supporting physical observations in were reported for two large target areas by Warburton Idaho, the following discussion is somewhat et al. (1995). While finding "seeding silver" in target speculative. However, comprehensive physical and snowfall does not prove seeding was effective, failure modeling evaluations of a similar Utah program were to find it certainly demonstrates serious problems with summarized by Super (1999). Anyone interested in project design. At least seasonal silver-in-snow why this type of operational seeding is unlikely to sampling should be considered a minimum physical succeed is referred to that summary, but especially to evaluation for any winter operational project. the references therein to many publications by various authors resulting from several years of Too many winter operational projects have released cooperative state-federal research in Utah. The AgI from a limited density of often low-elevation sites fundamental problem was simply failure to routinely and simply assumed, without any physical verification, and adequately seed the clouds. Super (ibid.) stated that all necessary subsequent links in the chain of that, "The main problem with the Utah operational physical processes proceeded as hoped for. Such links program is that observed effective AgI ice nucleus include transport and dispersion, loading of SLW concentrations are too low for significant snowfall cloud with sufficient AgI concentrations effective at enhancement from the mildly supercooled clouds. prevailing temperatures, sufficient time/distance for Much of the time, the entire SLW layer is too warm snowflake growth, etc., with the anticipated end for effective seeding with AgI, which begins to product of useful snowfall enhancement. Numerous nucleate ice crystals near -6˚C, but which is observational and modeling studies exist in the ineffective in concentrations observed until the SLW scientific literature which indicate that such an cloud is colder than about -9˚C." Low observed approach is naïve at best. concentrations of effective ice nuclei and seeded ice crystals were related to frequent stable layer trapping 10. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS of valley-released AgI. Moreover, when AgI was transported into the mountain-induced SLW zone, Application of the historical regression method to a volume filling with AgI was often limited because of recent operational winter orographic cloud seeding widely spaced generators, typically 10 mi apart. was examined in detail. Analysis by Griffith and Solak (2002) indicated a mean seeding effect of 12% It has long been recognized that failure to achieve based on April 1st snow accumulation observations.
April 2003 SUPER AND HEIMBACH 39
Reanalysis with the same target and control stations stations. None of the results can be valid, because of showed almost identical results and indicated the melt problem. However, these analyses helped essentially the same data set was used in the current illuminate the range of possibilities from the large analysis, a point worth verification. However, a number (over 16,000) of available regressions with serious problem was found with snow melt prior to all possible groupings of 14 controls. Very few of April 1st at some stations, especially controls. these many permutations provided apparent seeding effects as high and consistent as the initial analysis Frequent and significant melt before sampling even though they had equal or higher target-control complicates any search for seeding effects by associations. To make a point, a successful search introducing another important variable unrelated to was made for equally high relationships that seeding. The historical relationship is then based not suggested no "seeding effect." While this approach only on snow accumulation but on a melt pattern certainly violates the scientific method, it which varies among stations and seasons in demonstrated that a wide range of possibilities could unknowable ways. The target-control relationship is be found if one "mined" the available database. no longer valid for seeding evaluation if melt is Selection of measurement stations and methodology pronounced before snowpack sampling. prior to seeding eliminates this possibility.
The original GS analysis methodology was repeated Finally, the original analysis procedures were with March 1st rather than April 1st data. The result repeated using a shorter nonseeded historical period was a slightly higher R-value and reduction of the bracketing the seeded seasons. The period began in apparent mean seeding effect to 1/3 of the initial 1982 because almost all SNOTEL stations with results. This finding is sufficient to raise serious pressure pillows became operational by then. It concerns about the initial results unless one had extended to 1992, just before seeding commenced, reason to believe March had exceptionally high and included the 1998-2001 post-seeded period. seeding potential. These 15 nonseeded seasons had the highest target- control R-value seen in this study at 0.988. This March melt frequencies were approximated by analysis showed large reductions in the positive subtracting March 1st from April 1st SWE departures from the initial results for two of the observations, ignoring unknown March snowfalls. seeded seasons and for the mean. These findings This conservative approach showed melt frequencies suggest serious lack of stability from application of between 44 and 78% at several control and target this method. stations. Three of the original 10 target stations, and 4 of the 7 controls had March melt during about 1/2 It was concluded that this comprehensive evaluation to 3/4 of winters. Several zero readings were found of the four winter Idaho seeding project, applying the on April 1st at 2 of these controls. It was shown that often used historical regression method, provides no about 70% of the variance in individual control reason to conclude that seeding was effective in station correlations with the April 1st target mean snowpack augmentation. Problems with the initial was explained by March snowmelt frequency. More analysis were discovered which should guide future frequent snowmelt at a control station lessened its attempts to use this method. association with target snowpack accumulation. The influence of three control stations with high melt Recommendations for future applications of the frequencies was shown to have especially historical regression method to winter orographic complicated initial analysis of seeding effectiveness. seeding programs include:
An exhaustive search was made for the strongest ● Choose and publish all measurement stations and relationships among all available March 1st target statistical approaches to be used before data becomes and control observations for all 36 nonseeded available from the first seeded winter. As pointed out seasons. Stations were excluded if their February decades ago, this practice will add considerable melt frequency exceeded 5%. This is considered to credibility to later analysis results because the be the physically most reasonable approach with possibility of human bias is removed. existing data. The results do not support the hypothesis that the four season seeding project ● Choose stations on physically reasonable basis. increased snow accumulation up to March 1st. Stations with significant and frequent snow melt prior to sampling are obviously unsuitable choices. Using Some further consideration was given to use of April samples taken as late as April 1st will be 1st data using an additional 7 available control unsatisfactory in many mountain and foothill 40 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35 climates. A control station poorly correlated with the operational projects may provide suggestions but target is likely an inappropriate choice because there never scientific proof. are physical reasons for the low degree of association. Adding such stations to the control area ● Sponsors and project managers could gain group because they slightly increase the target- credibility for their seeding programs by keeping control R-value is not justified. As a "rule of thumb," evaluations independent from operations. based on their experience, the authors would be Independent evaluation of seeding effectiveness by hesitant to use stations with individual R-values experts with no stake in the results is similar to use of below about 0.85 and certainly 0.80. independent auditors in commerce and government.
● Evaluations of operational seeding projects should • Confidence in the results of a statistical analysis point out that valid P-values cannot be calculated can be increased if AgI targeting is verified in some with any precision in the absence of randomization. fashion. As a minimum, target seasonal snowpack Estimates may be made as in this paper, but only with samples should be collected for silver sampling, an the major caveats noted, and only for the purpose of economical approach. Plume tracing of AgI or a attempting to determine whether any suggested tracer gas provides more definitive information. results might have some validity. The more valid Presentation of statistical results in the complete alternative is to present no estimation of seeding absence of physical support is a practice unlikely to effectiveness because such estimates without P- enhance the scientific credibility of weather values must call into question any interpretation of modification as discussed in the most recent results. It is understood that sponsors expect some American Meteorological Society Policy Statement evaluation of whether seeding was successful. But on Weather Modification (AMS, 1998). they should be made to understand that evaluation of
REFERENCES:
AMS, 1998: Policy Statement of Planned and Inadvertent Rangno, A.L., 1986: How Good are our Conceptual Models Weather Modification, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Society, 79, of Orographic Cloud Seeding? Precipitation Enhancement - 2771-2772. A Scientific Challenge. (R. Braham, Ed.) Meteor. Monograph, 21, No. 43, Amer. Meteorological Society., Court, A., 1960: Jour. of the Irrigation and Drainage 115-126. Division, Proc. Am. Soc. Civil Engineers, 86, No. IR1, 121. Reynolds, D. W, J.H. Humphries and R.H. Stone, 1989: Dennis, A. S., 1980: Weather Modification by Cloud Evaluation of a 2-month Cooperative Ground-based Silver Seeding. Academic Press, New York, NY, 267 pp. Iodide Seeding Program. Jour. of Weather Modification, 21, 14-28. Dennis, A.S., J.R. Miller, Jr., D.E. Cain and R.L. Schwaller, 1975: Evaluation by Monte Carlo Tests of Super, A.B., 1999: Summary of the NOAA/Utah Effects of Cloud Seeding on Growing Season Rainfall in Atmospheric Modification Program: 1990-1998. Jour. of North Dakota. Jour. of Applied Meteorology, 14, 959-969. Weather Modification, 31, 51-75.
Gabriel, K.R., 2000: Parallels between Statistical Issues in Super, A. B. and J. A. Heimbach, 1983: Evaluation of the Medical and Meteorological Experimentation. Jour. of Bridger Range Winter Cloud Seeding Experiment using Applied Meteorology, 39, 1822-1836. Control Gages. Jour. of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 22, 1989-2011. Griffith, D. A. and M. E. Solak, 2002: Economic Feasibility Assessment of Winter Cloud Seeding in the Thom, H. C. S., 1957: Final Report of the Advisory Boise River Drainage, Idaho. Jour. of Weather Committee on Weather Control, Vol. II, U.S. Govt. Printing Modification, 34, 39-46. Office, Washington, D.C., pp. 5-25.
Griffith, D.A., J.R. Thompson, D.A. Risch and M.E. Solak, Warburton, J.A., R.H. Stone and B.L. Marler, 1995: How 1997: An Update on a Winter Cloud Seeding Program in the Transport and Dispersion of AgI Aerosols May Affect Utah. Jour. of Weather Modification, 29, 95-99. Delectability of Seeding Effects by Statistical Methods. Jour. of Applied Meteorology, 34, 1929-1941. Huggins, A.W., 1997: Payette River Basin Weather Modification Research Program. Part 1: Radiometric and Meteorological Analyses to Assess Cloud Seeding Potential. Final Report to Idaho Power Company from the Desert Research Institute, Reno, 76 pp.
April 2003 HENDERSON 41
NEW ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM SIX WINTER SNOWPACK AUGMENTATION PROJECTS
Thomas J. Henderson
Atmospherics Incorporated Fresno, California U.S.A
ABSTRACT
California has the longest history of continuous operational cloud seeding programs of any area in the world. The technology was first applied by the California Electric Power Company beginning on February 2, 1948. As the years evolved, additional programs funded by water agencies, municipalities and hydroelectric interests were organized over many California locales. During the 2001/02 winter season, thirteen operational programs were active. A broad range of statistical evaluations have been applied to many of these programs. In addition to statistical methods applied to precipitation and streamflow data, these evaluations have also focused on substantial radar data collected by operational 3cm and 5cm weather radar systems. The combined benefits are explored using six programs in California which have been active for various periods since 1950. The results from this study strongly suggest that very beneficial increases in water supplies have been produced by these long-term cloud seeding programs.
1. HISTORIC BACKGROUND previous evaluations, and the author's knowledge about the program. The names of the chosen For many years cloud seeding programs programs, the primary supporting groups, and their designed to enhance the mechanisms of rain and individual years of operation are listed in Table 1. snow have been conducted at various sites in the California area (Dennis, 1980). One of these programs has operated almost every year for more Table 1. Cloud Seeding Projects - Basic Information. than 47 of those years. Another has an unbroken record of 52 years of continuous operations. Project Name Primary Total Evaluations have been extensive (Orville, 1967; Support Seasons of Malone, 1973). Group* Cloud Seeding One of these programs in the Sierra Tuolumne River TID/MID 12 (1990) which has received extensive evaluations is the Eastern Sierra DWP 25 (1977) Kings River Weather Resources Management San Joaquin SCE 52 (1950) Program. It has an operations background River beginning in 1954. The evaluations have produced apparent positive results significant at Kings River KRCD 48 (1954) the 0.05 confidence level (Henderson, 1966; Kaweah River KDWCD 27 (1975) Malone, 1966). Kern River NKWSD 25 (1977) TOTAL: 189 Seasons 2. THE CLOUD SEEDING PROGRAMS TID/MID: Turlock and Modesto Irrigation Districts Six cloud seeding programs were chosen DWP: Los Angeles Department of Water and Power for inclusion in this study. All were active during SCE: Southern California Edison Company some portion of the 2001/02 water year. The KRCD: Kings River Conservation District choices included such criterion as geographic KDWCD: Kaweah Delta Water Conservation District location, design features, length of operations, NKWSD: North Kern Water Storage District available data, multiple water use aspects,
42 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
The major storage reservoirs, capacities and their Table 3. Cloud Seeding Program Evaluations - California relevant watershed areas, are listed in Table 2. It Data Set Range of R2 values is worth emphasizing that the watershed areas total more than 9,000 sq.miles and the storage Rain gage networks 0.68 - 0.82 capacity of the major reservoirs alone is Snow survey programs 0.76 - 0.91 approximately 4.6 million acre feet. Streamflow compilations 0.87 - 0.98 Project radar data 0.83 - 0.92
Table 2. Cloud Seeding Programs, Major Reservoirs, Capacities, Watersheds 4. BENEFITS
Project Major Storage Capacity Watershed Based on the extensive statistical and Name Reservoir (AF) Area (mi2) physical evaluations, this study assumes that Tuolumne New Don Pedro 2,030,000 1,500 supplemental water has been derived from such Eastern Sierra Crowley 321,000 2,000 cloud seeding programs and explores the potential San Joaquin Millerton 521,000 1,600 benefits in terms of a range of effectiveness Kings River Pine Flat 1,000,000 1,500 percentages and their values. In order to establish Kaweah River Terminus 143,000 680 a broader view of these possible benefits on a Kern River Isabella 568,000 2,100 cumulative scale in California, the average annual streamflow, hydroelectric generating capacity, and TOTAL: 4,583,000 9,380 hydro production efficiency data were assembled
and tabulated. These values are shown in Table 4 3. EVALUATIONS for each of the six programs included in the study.
Because of the natural and artificial water courses in California, supplemental water from Table 4. Cloud Seeding Projects - Hydro Generation many cloud seeding programs has multiple uses and related benefits. For example, an acre foot of Hydro- water in the higher snowpack above 10,000 ft. Average electric Annual Capacity Efficiency elevation may eventually move through several Project Name Flow (AF) (MW) Kwh/AF hydroelectric generating plants, then contained in Tuolumne 1,656,000 195 350 downstream reservoirs for flood control and River 435,000 214 2,000 recreational purposes, move on to the valley floor TID/MID for use by agricultural interests, industry and Eastern Sierra municipalities and sometimes finding its way to Bishop 68,000 29 3,530 ponding basins for ground water recharge. Creek 35,000 11 1,270 Rush Creek 26,000 11 1,045 Lee Vining At present, there are no less than 260 references dealing with evaluations of cloud San Joaquin 1,776,000 1,190 8,630 River seeding programs in California. It is enough to say Kings River that data used in these historic and current PG&E 1,670,000 1,547 6,076 evaluations have included files from (1) several KRCD 1,311,000 165 310 rain gage networks, (2) various cooperative snow Kaweah River 444,000 7 1,760 survey programs, (3) US Geological Survey Kern River 716,000 90 2,100 published streamflow records and, (4) radar data sets obtained during many cloud seeding TOTALS: 8,137,000 3,459 27,071 operations. For the benefit of the statistical Taken as a whole, the totals shown in community, the ranges of R2 values within these Table 4 tend to minimize any error ranges evaluations are listed in the following Table 3. associated with basic data from individual projects,
and probably come somewhat closer to It is worth emphasizing that the statistical establishing realistic benefits. It is enough to 2 analyses which produced the ranges of R values emphasize that the totals are large, and represent in Table 3, and utilized with the four noted data a remarkable and extremely valuable resource in sets, have ultimately indicated apparent increases California. in the range of 4% to 16%, significant at the 0.05 level. April 2003 HENDERSON 43
The study now moved to the actual programs. The assumption is made that all economic benefits, which are derived by assuming generating units are operating at full capacity for the cloud seeding programs actually increase the an entire year. average volume of available water by some range of percentages. For purposes of reaching some meaningful conclusions, the chosen percentages Table 6. Cloud Seeding Projects - Increases in Generation were 2%, 4%, and 6% increases, rather conservative figures when compared with the Average Annual Mwh (x103) Increases from Cloud higher values concluded from more recent physical Seeding and statistical studies. A fourth column showing a 2% 4% 6% 9% Tuolumne River 9% increase in runoff volume was added as a sort TID/MID 11.6 23.2 34.8 52.2 of personal speculative figure because of the Holm-Kirkwood 17.4 34.8 52.2 78.3 results shown by the extensive statistical Eastern Sierra evaluation focused on the historic Bishop Creek Bishop Creek 4.8 9.6 14.4 21.6 Rush Creek 0.9 1.8 2.7 4.0 Program as published in 1953 (Hall, Henderson, Lee Vining Creek 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.2 Cundiff, 1953). San Joaquin River 306.5 613.-0 919.5 1,379.3 Kings River The results from this range of percentage PG&E 202.9 405.8 608.7 913.0 streamflow increases as applied to the average KRCD 8.1 16.2 24.3 36.4 annual streamflow through the individual basin- Kaweah River 15.6 31.2 46.8 70.2 related hydro powerplants are shown in Table 5. Kern River 30.1 60.2 90.3 135.5
TOTALS: 598.4 1,196.8 1.795.2 2.692.7 Table 5. Cloud Seeding Projects - Increases in Streamflow Because the supplemental water provides Average Annual Flow Increases from Cloud Seeding multiple-use benefits, the total average annual (AF) volume of water attributed to the six cloud seeding 2% 4% 6% 9% programs was also required for estimating the Tuolumne River benefits to agriculture, municipalities and the TID/MID 33,120 66,240 99,360 149,040 Holm-Kirkwood 8,700 17,400 26,100 39,150 environment. These totals are again shown in Eastern Sierra Table 7. Bishop Creek 1,360 2,720 4,080 6,120 Rush Creek 700 1,400 2,100 3,150 Lee Vining Creek 520 1,040 1,560 2,340 Table 7. Average Annual Volume of Water Attributed to San Joaquin River 35,520 71,040 106,560 159,840 Cloud Seeding Kings River PG&E 33,400 66,800 100,200 150,300 KRCD 26,220 52,440 78,660 117,990 Total average 2% 4% 6% 9% annual flow Increase Increase Increase Increase Kaweah River 8,880 17,760 26,640 39,960 from six (AF) (AF) (AF) (AF) Kern River 14,320 28,640 42,960 64,440 programs (AF) TOTALS: 162,740 325,480 488,220 732,330 8,137,000 162,740 325,480 488,220 732,330
Before moving on to the estimates of dollar 5. CONCLUSIONS values, the remaining calculations involved the conversion of average annual streamflow The added power generation and values increases in acre feet to the total megawatt hours have been calculated for each of the percentage of generation. These amounts are shown in Table increases in streamflow due to the cloud seeding 6. programs. Conservative estimates of supplemental water values to Agriculture, The historic average annual streamflow Municipalities and Environmental interests have totals, as calculated for the benefit study period, also been compiled. These data are shown in include only the flows which originate in the areas Table 8. affected by the cloud seeding programs, then move downstream through various hydroelectric plants. These figures show the additional MwH produced by each of the four chosen apparent increases in streamflow due to the cloud seeding
44 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
Table 8. Total U.S.$ Value (x 1,000) of Supplemental 6. REFERENCES Water for the Six cloud Seeding Programs in California. Atmospheric Sciences and Power Production, 2% 4% 6% 9% 1984: Darryl Randerson, Editor, Weather MWh 598.4 1,196.8 1,795.2 2,692.7 Service Nuclear Support Office, U.S. $20/Mwh $11,968 $23,936 $35,904 $53,854 Department of Commerce. Technical Agri/Municipal Information Center, U.S. Department of / $9,764 $19,529 $29,293 $43,940 Energy. DDE/TIC-27601 (DE 84005177). Environment
($60 /AF) Dennis, Arnett S., 1980: Weather Modification by TOTAL $21,732 $43,365 $65,197 $97,794 Cloud Seeding, Academic Press., VALUE International Geophysics Series, Vol. 24., 170- BENEFIT/ 13:1 27:1 40:7 61:1 182. COST RATIO Grant, L. O., and A. M. Kahan, 1974: Weather Modification for Augmenting Orographic Precipitation, Weather and Climate Additionally, the stated value of electrical Modification, W. N. Hess, Editor, John Wiley energy at $20/Mwh is very conservative. During and Sons, 282-317. dry seasons, the actual value of supplemental Hall, F., T. J. Henderson and S. A. Cundiff, 1953: water for hydro generation may be many times that Cloud Seeding Operations in the Bishop figure depending upon modes of operation within Creek, California Watershed. Research specific projects. The total dollar values of Paper No. 36, U.S. Department of Commerce, supplemental water for agriculture, municipal and January 1953. environmental uses are equally difficult to estimate. The $60/AF figure used in this study is Hall, F., T. J. Henderson and S. A. Cundiff, 1953: considered very conservative, but can be adjusted Cloud Seeding in the Sierra near Bishop, depending upon the values in any given area. California. Bull. of Amer. Meteor. Soc., Vol. 34, No. 3, 111-116. The total values of the supplemental water produced by the six cloud seeding programs each Henderson, T. J., 1966: A Ten-Year Non- year in California is in the range of about $22 Randomized Cloud Seeding Program in the million to U.S.$98 million. Based on a private Kings River in California. J. Appl. Meteor., sector estimated total annual operational cost of Vol. 5, No. 5, 697-702. $1,600,000 for the six cloud seeding programs, the benefit/cost ratios for the four percentage Malone, Thomas F., 1966: Weather and Climate increases are in the range of 13:1 to 61:1. Modification, Final Report to the Panel on Weather and Climate Modification, National The estimated annual cost of $1,600,000 to Academy of Sciences, Publication No. 1350, operate six of the programs for each season Washington D.C., January 7, 1966, 26-34. includes full-time assigned personnel, in-house satellite derived weather data acquisition and Malone, Thomas F., 1973: Weather and Climate weather forecasts, ground-based radar systems, Modification, Report to the National Academy aircraft seeding capabilities, ground seeding of Sciences, Washington D.C., February 26, generator networks plus evaluations and reports. 1973, 68-92.
Orville, Howard T., 1957: Final Report of the Advisory Committee on Weather Control. Report to the President, December 31, 1957, Vol. I, 11-16.
April 2003 HENDERSON 45
THE KINGS RIVER WEATHER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PROGRAM
Thomas J. Henderson Atmospherics Incorporated Fresno, California
ABSTRACT
In 1954 a cloud seeding program designed to increase rainfall and snowpack was initiated over the watershed of the Kings River in the Sierra Range of California. The project has been funded by the Kings River Conservation District, Fresno, California. With the exception of a few suspension periods due to high runoff and the construction of a hydroelectric facility, the program has been operated for 6-7 months each year since its inception. At the end of the first three-year period, a multiple regression analysis was developed utilizing the unregulated historic flow of the Kings River and the flow of adjacent rivers presumed to be unaltered by the cloud seeding activities. When applied to the subsequent operational periods, his analysis indicated an apparent increase in streamflow amounting to 6% of the total predicted by the regression analysis. The apparent increase was significant at the 0.005 level. During the years following this first analysis, a number of studies have been conducted including a continuation of the statistics work plus an analysis of data from 3cm and 5cm project radar data.
1.0 BACKGROUND AND INTRODUCTION The Kings River is one of several streams which originates in the high snowfields along the western slope of the Sierra Range in California and flows from its 1,600 square mile watershed to the rich San Joaquin Valley. Emerging from the foothills east of Fresno, as noted in Figure 1., the total annual flow has ranged from a minimum of less than 400,000 acre feet (1977) to a maximum of more than 4,000,000 acre feet (1969). The average annual natural flow is about 1.5 million acre feet.
Hydroelectric power production, agricultural interests, and domestic requirements provide the major interests in the overall water supply. In years of average runoff, no water from the river reaches the ocean. Present estimates indicate it requires
46 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35 nearly 150% of average snowmelt runoff In the 1954/55 water year, KRCD before surplus water would be available for initiated an operational weather modification other uses. Of course, this depends on the program designed to increase the annual flow condition of the watershed, the amount of of the Kings River into Pine Flat Reservoir. carryover storage, the manner in which the During the subsequent years of this historic water runs out of the basin, plus other program, a number of serious evaluation hydrologic and meteorological factors approaches were applied. These included governing the flow of the river. There are streamflow statistical procedures, target- presently three main dams on the watershed. control precipitation comparisons, and the All of these are storage reservoirs for flood examination of radar reflectivity from seeded control and for power generation. Pine Flat and non-seeded storm systems and post- Dam at the western outflow side of the frontal individual cumulus cells. These early watershed, is a 5 million cubic yard concrete investigations all suggested strong apparent structure built by the Army Corps of positive results (Orville, H.T. 1957). Engineers. Power generation and irrigated agricultural land are the primary users of the 2.0 GENERAL OPERATIONS total water supply. Ground water recharge During the operational period since basins are active during years of high flow. 1955, the Kings River Conservation District
Program has focused on five major During its long history, the Kings components. In general, these are River Conservation District (KRCD) has summarized in the following sub-sections. been the major funding source for this program. Other contributors include the 2.1 Meteorology Kings River Water Association, the Pacific Gas and Electric Company and the California The normal storm meteorology, if Department of Water Resources. KRCD is a there really is any such thing, involves a low political subdivision of the State of pressure center positioned off the California covering an area of about 2,000 Washington Coast with an associated frontal square miles in Fresno, Kings and Tulare system trailing southwestward over the Counties. The entire service area of the Pacific Ocean. As each of the systems move Kings River is included within its southeastward over Oregon and in California, boundaries. The district was formed by the the weather activity in the frontal zone may California Legislature in 1951 with the diminish. The Kings River watershed passage of the “Kings River Conservation usually marks the southern boundary of any District Act”. intense weather activity. Precipitation amounts usually diminish rapidly further Irrigation development in the San south over the extreme southern Sierra. Joaquin Valley has been extensive which (Henderson, T.J. 1962). explains, in part, why Fresno County remains one of the richest agricultural counties in the The second weather pattern, one United States, and probably one of the richest which is less common but can produce large farming areas in the world. There are amounts of precipitation in the southern presently more than 1,300,000 acres of Sierra, is associated with a high pressure irrigated land in the area serviced by the center in British Columbia. This shunts the Kings River. low centers further south off the coast of northern or central California. In this April 2003 HENDERSON 47 situation, the freezing levels move upward remotely operated valves which control the from the usual 4,000 feet to around 7,000 use rate of silver iodide solution. The finely feet. divided mixture is burned in a 3-inch diameter flame chamber at about 1800oF. A third and rather unusual weather The chemical solution strength is presently pattern in the southern Sierra is associated fixed at 2% silver iodide (by weight) in with the low pressure center located off the acetone. Each generator consumes about 19 southern California coast. This produces grams of silver iodide per hour when the easterly to southeasterly flow along the propane pressure is regulated at 6 psi. The Sierra Crest, with the eastern slopes being propane source is used to pressurize the favored for the larger precipitation amounts. silver iodide solution tank as well as provide The pattern usually produces large amounts the heat source for producing the finely of precipitation in the Las Angeles basin and divided silver iodide ice nuclei. far less amounts over the downslope regions along the western portions of the Sierra. A total of 12 manual operated units This weather system is often enhanced by and 6 remote control silver iodide generators warm moist tropical air from the area around are installed at select locations within or the Hawaiian Islands. adjacent to the Kings River Target area.
The 500-mb troughs are usually From year to year the actual locations associated with all these weather patterns and of the individual generators have been shifted exert a variety of influences on the total in a number of cases. These modifications precipitation amounts resulting from each have resulted from measurements of surface system. However, during each precipitation wind flow characteristics throughout the period there is a tendency toward “bands” of watershed and from silver iodide plume precipitation to move across the area and tracking during operational periods. The seldom do the radar systems show long main line of units is along the south and periods of unbroken continuous precipitation. southwest border of the target boundary with A feeling persists at the operational level that additional generators scattered in certain the apparent maximum seeding effects can be sections of the western and northwestern found early in the most intense portion of all areas. Insofar as possible, the general storms. This feeling is supported by radar method of operation involves ignition of the data and much information from aircraft units located along a path perpendicular to penetrations within the general storm the direction of surface windflow. systems. By the same observations there is a further indication that seeding is ineffective 2.3 Aircraft when the 500-mb temperatures are colder In the first few years of program than about –22oC. (Henderson, T.J. 1963). operations, there were eight different types of
cloud seeding aircraft tried on the Kings 2.2 Ground Generators River Project. These were the P-40 (War The evolution of the individual silver Hawk), F-51 (Mustang), F8F (Bearcat), T-28 iodide ground generator has progressed (Trainer), Cessna 180, Cessna 421 (Golden through a number of experimental periods Eagle), Piper PA-21 (Aztec) and Piper PA-31 and design changes. At the moment, a (Navajo). All aircraft have been equipped standard unit includes a special stainless steel with turbo chargers and most included de- spray nozzle equipped with either manual or icing equipment. At present, the turbo 48 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35 charged Piper Aztec serves as the primary time-lapse cameras, temperature measuring cloud seeding aircraft on the Kings River devices, calibrated cold boxes, microscopes, Program. The primary reason for this choice potential gradient recorders, small particle has been the aircraft’s ability to handle detectors, ice crystal counters, icing rate substantial icing conditions during actual detectors and miscellaneous laboratory seeding flights. There continues to be equipment. These ground-based and substantial evidence that the aircraft is airborne measurement systems have provided essential for any full-scale efficient cloud a more definitive examination of storms and seeding program focused on mountain areas. seeding effects within and beyond the boundaries of the Kings River watershed. 2.4 Radar Through the years, additional The original radar system used on the research projects over the Kings River Kings River Project was designed and built watershed have been funded by the Bureau of by Atmospherics Incorporated. The system Reclamation (Project Sierra Cumulus), operated on a frequency of 9375-9400 National Science Foundation (Physical megacycles (3.2cm wavelength) and Studies of Sierra Storm Mechanisms), produced a peak power of 50kw. In more Atmospherics Incorporated (Surface Wind recent years the 3cm radar system has been Flow Characteristics in Mountainous Areas), replaced by an Enterprise Electronics 5cm and Atmospherics Incorporated (Methods for system operating at 250kw peak power. For Evaluating Cloud Seeding Programs in the past three years the system has been Mountain Areas). equipped with the relatively new TITAN software package. 3.0 STATISTICAL EVALUATIONS
The radar system has two important The early 1963-64 season completed functions within the application of the total the tenth consecutive year of weather cloud seeding program. As an operational modification operations on the Kings River tool, it provides much of the meteorological watershed. During that period, many hours information necessary for proper direction of were spent attempting to find the most aircraft and the operation of silver iodide significant evaluation procedure. One of ground generators. Routine forecasting by these early attempts at evaluation dealt with individuals and agencies is not sufficient for the comparison of rain gauge figures. As in direction of a full-scale cloud seeding almost all cases using rain gauge data, the operation. Secondly, the equipment provides figures did not produce relationships with significant information to the research effort high significance levels. In addition, the presently an important part of the total network concentration of established rain seeding program. gauges was too small to give adequate sampling of the areas within and beyond the 2.5 Research target boundaries. (Malone, T.F. 1966; Henderson, T.J. 1966). Early in the history of the Kings
River Program, the National Science During these early stages of the Foundation provided modest funding for program an investigation of all snow survey several supplemental meteorological tools courses and compiled data was initiated. considered basic to the total effort. The This vigorous investigation produced a more actual equipment included such items as significant relationship between seeded and April 2003 HENDERSON 49
non-seeded areas. However, even though the The use of control streams from areas both analysis produced rather high positive north and south of the target areas seemed indications of the success of cloud seeding appropriate in any search for methods of on the Kings River, the confidence levels eliminating bias from years which contained were considered less than desirable. It is a predominance of either northerly or important to note that much of the snow southerly type storms. (Henderson, T.J. survey data can serve as clues pertaining to 1986). the effects of seeding operations within certain areas of the program and should not The possible bias from persistent be ignored in the investigation of special storm directions was not the only item local effects. investigated in this evaluation search. For example, the total number of acres covered As the years evolved, an examination by forest fires was tabulated in both control of the streamflow records along the western and target areas, methods of streamflow slopes of the Sierra Range produced much measurements were checked, types of basic data which were considerably more measuring devices and locations of meaningful than either the snow survey data measuring points were investigated, surface or the precipitation data. Additionally, it evaporation from the newly constructed seemed appropriate to deal directly with the reservoirs was considered, and the historic amount of runoff inasmuch the program was record of streamflow itself was repeatedly designed to increase this figure and any checked. Most of the possible items which numbers dealing with the volume of water may have had some abnormal effect on the are much more meaningful to the actual natural flows of either the control or target water users for hydro generation and area streams were ultimately considered agriculture. An important publication was insignificant. now indicating that statistical studies suggested apparent increases 6 to 10 percent It was thought desirable to keep any in streamflow from cloud seeding over the statistical analysis as simple as possible Kings River. Further, these statistical without resorting to complex transformations calculations on the data from the West Coast of the basic data or to a long list of orographic cloud seeding programs, controversial methodologies. Consequently, “estimate the odds to be 1,000 to 1 against a straightforward multiple regression analysis this increase having been by the natural has been used to indicate any possible change variability alone in the precipitation”. in the flow of the Kings River. (Hacking, Ian (Malone, T.F. 1973; Dennis Arnett S. 1980). 1965; Edwards, A.L. 1979; Wegman, E.J. and DePriest, D.J. 1980; Epstein, E.S. 1985). By 1986 the application of statistical methods were focused on many of the flow Combinations of possible control figures from streams along both the western streams were examined and these included and eastern slopes of the Sierra. The results the Merced, San Joaquin, Kern, Kaweah, of these new analyses continued to indicate Tule, Owens, and Cottonwood. that a very high confidence level could be Mathematical analysis tells us the placed on results from comparison between combination of these control streams which the flow of the Kings River and the best minimizes the departure during the base combination of flows from adjacent streams period prior to any cloud seeding activity. In not affected by the cloud seeding program. this case, the combination of streams which 50 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35 resulted in the highest correlation with the periods since statistical procedures were first Kings River was found to be the Merced applied to WY1955. River (north) measured at Pohono Bridge and Cottonwood Creek (south) as measured by ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS the Department of Water & Power, City of A sincere note of appreciation must Los Angeles. This multiple regression go to the Kings River Conservation District analysis ultimately produced the following of Fresno, California for its continued predictor equation. support of the total cloud seeding program.
Throughout this historic period, the various Kings= 2.639MER +34.258Cott – 95,581AF Boards of Directors have displayed an
unusual understanding of the uncertainties When applied to the forty-seven years connected with this effort. The District is to prior to 2002, this equation has suggested be commended for its insistence the project annual results which range from –9.5% to be operated on a professional level and that +25.6%. The statistical analyses in twelve of all relevant data and results remain public these years indicated small apparent negative information. results. However, the average percentage Additional recognition must go to Dr. change in flow for the total period was William Finnegan, Desert Research Institute, +5.5%. The statistical probability of this Reno, Nevada, for his unusual insight to the apparent overall positive effect was 99.9%. chemical properties of both liquid and solid
fuel cloud seeding formulations and the So, what does this statistical important related effects from these procedure indicate when applied to the most formulations. recent operational period. Substituting Lastly, to all the many friends who numerical values for water year 2002, we have provided important scientific inputs and find the following. specific suggestions which continue to
enhanced the apparent success of this historic Kings = 843,023 + 172,797 – 95,581 AF. program. Kings = 920,239 AF (predicted)
REFERENCES The measured natural flow of the
Kings River for WY2002 was 1,140,716 AF. Dennis, Arnett S. 1980: Weather
Modification by Cloud Seeding, Therefore, the calculated apparent Academic Press, International increase in Kings River streamflow due to Geophysics Series, Volume 24. P.173 cloud seeding during WY2002 is:
Edwards, Allen L. 1979, 1985: Multiple 1,140,716–920,239 acre feet = +220,477 AF. Regression and the Analysis of
Variance and Covariance. W.H. This suggests a 19.3% increase in Freeman and Company. New York. Kings River annual flow due to the cloud seeding program as applied during the Epstein, E.S. 1985: Statistical Inference and months of 1 October 2001 through 31 May Prediction in Climatology; A 2002. It is interesting that this apparent Bayesian Approach. American increase in Kings River total annual flow has Meteorological Society, Boston, MA. been exceeded during nine previous annual
April 2003 HENDERSON 51
Hacking, Ian, 1965: Logic of Statistical Malone, Thomas F. 1966: Weather and Inference, Cambridge University Climate Modification. Report to the Press. National Academy of Sciences. January 7, 1966. Henderson, T.J. 1962: Physical Studies of Winter Storms in the Sierra Nevada Malone, Thomas F. 1973: Weather and Range of California. First Progress Climate Modification. Report to the Report to the National Science Committee on Atmospheric Sciences, Foundation NSF-C206. National Academy of Sciences. February 26, 1973. Henderson, T.J. 1963: Physical Studies of Winter Storms in the Sierra Nevada Orville, Howard T. 1957: Final Report of the Range of California. Final Progress Advisory Committee on Weather Report to the National Science Control to the President of the United Foundation, NSF-C206. States.
Henderson, T.J. 1966: The Ten-Year Non- Wegman, J.W. and DePriest, D.J. 1980: Randomized Cloud Seeding Program Statistical Analysis of Weather on the Kings River in California. Modification Experiments. Marceel Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. Decker, Inc. New York. 5, No. 5 pp. 697-702.
Henderson, T.J. 1986: 26 Years of Cloud Seeding on the Kings River Watershed in California. Report to the Kings River Conservation District 1986. Atmospherics Incorporated, Volume 259.
52 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
ESTIMATIONS OF DOWNWIND CLOUD SEEDING EFFECTS IN UTAH
Mark E. Solak, David P. Yorty and Don A. Griffith North American Weather Consultants, Inc. Sandy, Utah, U.S.A.
Abstract. Estimations of effects on precipitation downwind of a long-standing operational snowpack augmentation project in Utah are made, using an adaptation of the historical target/control regression technique which has been used to estimate the seasonal effects over more than twenty seasons within the project’s target area. Target area analyses of December-March high elevation precipitation data for this project indicate an overall season- average increase of about 14%. Estimations of downwind effects are made for distance bands downwind as far as 150 miles. The downwind analyses indicate increases of similar magnitude to those for the target, expressed as percentages or ratio values, extending to about 100 miles downwind. Beyond 100 miles the ratio values decay, reaching 1.0 at about 125 miles. Expressed as average-depth precipitation amounts, the target area precipitation difference is about 1.4 inches of additional water, while the values within downwind distance bands range from 0.4 to 0.25 inches, reaching zero at about 125 miles.
1. INTRODUCTION almost three decades. The intent in this work is to provide additional, at least semi-quantitative, Prominent among the most commonly evidence to address the downwind area issue, and posed questions regarding cloud seeding projects, to shed some light on the effects of seeding as a especially those projects with the stated goal of function of downwind distance. precipitation increase, is that of effects downwind of a given project’s intended target area. The 2. BACKGROUND question occasionally carries the connotation of “stealing” someone else’s water, sometimes Utah is the second driest state in the referred to as robbing Peter (the downwind folks) nation. Substantial ranching and agricultural to pay Paul (those who benefit from the seeding activity, coupled with ongoing population growth, project). This question, among others, must be have sustained a supportive environment for answered as forthrightly and factually as possible attempts to augment water supplies. Winter cloud when it is posed. The most succinct, and probably seeding projects have been conducted for several accurate, answer to the question is “no.” However, of the mountain ranges within the state. One this curt response should be accompanied by project in particular lends itself favorably to some substantiation, with summary comments investigation of downwind effects. This is the reflecting the conventional wisdom in the weather Central/Southern Utah project which has been modification community, or better yet, reference to operated for 25 winter seasons during the period some quantitative estimates from similar projects, from 1974 through the present. A few seasons if available. during the mid-1980's were not seeded due to adequate water supplies. The mountain ranges in The conventional wisdom in the central and southern Utah are oriented basically community suggests that, rather than decreases in north-south. Barrier crest heights average precipitation downwind of target areas, increases approximately 9000 feet in elevation, with many are indicated for substantial distances, extending peaks above 10,000 feet and a few above 12,000 downwind in some instances more than one feet msl. hundred miles. Quantitative or semi-quantitative estimates have been published by others. A rather This project involves ground-based comprehensive review of downwind effects of seeding with silver iodide from 70-75 sites and has precipitation enhancement is presented by Long been subject to historical target/control regression (2001). The analysis and results shown in this evaluation spanning its entire operational lifetime. current article address this issue in the State of Seasonal evaluations for December-March Utah, where snowpack augmentation projects precipitation at higher elevations indicate an have been conducted nearly continuously for overall area average seasonal increase over many April 2003 SOLAK ET AL. 53 seeded seasons of 11-15%, as reported in Griffith Table 1. Downwind Reporting Stations et al. (1991) and Griffith et al. (1997). Most recently, an evaluation covering 25 seeded Reporting Station Elevation (ft) seasons (Solak et al., 2002) reported a 14% increase. The indicated 14% average seasonal Price, UT 5700 increase corresponds to an average 1.39 inches of additional snowpack water content across the Castledale, UT 5620 approximately 10,000 square mile target area. Independent analyses of the project conducted by Ferron, UT 5940 the State of Utah Division of Water Resources (Stauffer and Williams, 2000) and (Stauffer, 2001) Capitol Reef NP, UT 5500 provided similar estimates of percentage increases Boulder, UT 6700 and also addressed the resultant increase in augmented streamflow. Stauffer estimates the Kanab, UT 4950 average annual increased runoff from the Central/Southern seeding project alone at about Hanksville, UT 4310 142,500 acre feet. Thus, plausible/credible, if not precise, estimates for the magnitude of the Green River, UT 4070 seeding effects within the high elevation target Moab, UT 4020 area, and the resultant runoff, have been established. Monticello, UT 6820
The terrain downwind of the seeding Blanding, UT 6040 project target area is relatively flat for a distance of about 150 miles, with only isolated mountains. Bluff, UT 4320 This lack of substantial orographic influences is considered a simplifying factor in the analysis. A Mexican Hat, UT 4130 reasonable array of reporting stations is available Altenbern, CO 5690 in the downwind region, with adequately long periods of record for establishment of historical Grand Junction, CO 4840 relationships. In an earlier article (Griffith et al., 1991), average-value downwind effects for this Gateway, CO 4550 seeding project were investigated over thirteen seeded seasons for a single downwind group of Northdale, CO 6680 sites. That analysis indicated an average 15% increase in precipitation for the seven-site group extending a maximum of 75 miles downwind. In the current work, we capitalize on the fact that the array of downwind sites is sufficiently dense for assessment of the estimated effects as a function of downwind distance (as far as 150 miles) and enjoy the benefit of a larger number of seeded seasons.
3. METHODOLOGY
A total of 17 NWS cooperative observer reporting sites were selected downwind of the seeding target area (Table 1). Figure 1 shows the location of these sites relative to the target area. Figure 1. Map of Seeding Target Area and Precipitation records for the months of December Downwind Sites through March were analyzed, the same period as the target area analyses, comparing a not-seeded The base period for this study included the base period with the years when seeding was years 1956-1973, and 1984, when no seeding was conducted. All downwind area sites with adequate conducted in the Utah project area, and for which period of record and data quality were used. adequate precipitation records are available. The 54 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
seeded period consists of the water years 1974- The downwind sites are located in the arid 2002, excluding 1984-1987 when little or no regions of southeastern Utah and adjacent border seeding occurred. region of western Colorado. All of these sites are considered downwind of the seeding target area A group of control sites was selected that shown in Figure 1, based on a mean westerly wind provided the highest correlation of seasonal flow sector during storm periods. The sites begin average precipitation values with the downwind immediately downwind (east) of the seeding target reporting sites. The control group used in this area in Utah, with the eastern extent of the study consists of ten National Weather Service downwind sites limited by the numerous significant cooperative observer reporting sites assumed to mountain ranges in western Colorado and the be unaffected by any seeding, one located in Utah, potential effects on precipitation by other seeding four in Nevada, and five in Arizona (Table 2). projects in Colorado. The downwind site Figure 2 shows the locations of these sites. The elevations range from 4,020 to 6,820 feet, with a control site elevations range from 4,330 to 7,000 mean elevation of 5,287 feet. feet, with a mean elevation of 5, 977 feet. A linear regression equation describing the Table 2. Control Stations relationship between the control group and each downwind site was developed, based on the 19- Reporting Station Elevation (ft) season base period. Similarly, equations were developed relating the control group to various Ruby Lake, NV 6010 distance groupings of the downwind sites. These Callao, UT 4330 equations were then used to predict the natural precipitation at the downwind area sites and McGill, NV 6300 groupings of those sites, allowing comparisons between the observed and predicted precipitation Ely, NV 6250 amounts in various combinations during seeded Pioche, NV 6180 seasons.
Grand Canyon NP, AZ 6790 4. RESULTS Wupatki NM, AZ 4910 Figure 3 shows the ratio values of Seligman, AZ 5250 observed over predicted precipitation amounts for Williams, AZ 6750 25 seeded seasons for each downwind site. The downwind sites are identified according to their Flagstaff, AZ 7000 degree of correlation with the control sites during the base period, as described in the figure caption. Comparison of the observed versus predicted precipitation for the individual downwind sites yields rough estimates of the apparent effects of seeding at each site over the 25-season analysis period. These site-specific ratios are quite variable, and probably not very meaningful individually. Much of the variation is likely due to the scarcity of winter precipitation in this downwind region, making the results highly sensitive to individual storm or season outliers. However, the single site data do suggest an interesting gradient of decreasing ratios with increasing distance downwind from the seeding target. The full 17-site group average observed/predicted (O/P) ratio is 1.08, suggesting average precipitation increases of about 8%.
The first partition of the data by downwind distance was made at 75 miles, to allow Figure 2. Control Sites for Downwind Study comparison with the earlier downwind effects April 2003 SOLAK ET AL. 55
Table 3. Results of grouping data into 50- mile-wide downwind distance bands
Distance No. of Ratio Precip. Corre- From Sites 0bs/ Diff. lation Target Pred (in.) (r)
Seeding 27 1.14 1.39" 0.97 Target
0-50 7 1.14 0.38" 0.91 miles
50-100 3 1.17 0.34" 0.82 Figure 3. Individual site ratios for seeded miles seasons. Symbols show degree of correlation with control: Square: R = 0.80 or 100-150 7 1.03 0.10" 0.91 greater; Flag: R = 0.70 - 0.79; Ball: R = 0.60- miles 0.69; X: R = < 0.60.
reported by Griffith et al., 1991. That study indicated, for 13 seeded seasons, a 15% average increase for a group of sites with a downwind limit of approximately 75 miles. The current study which includes 25 (an additional 12) seeded seasons indicates a 14% average increase out to 75 miles and an increase of about 5% from 75-150 miles downwind.
To investigate the apparent gradient in downwind seeding effects, the downwind precipitation sites were grouped into three distance bands: a) those approximately 0 - 50 miles downwind of the target, b) 50-100 miles downwind and c) 100-150 miles downwind. With this grouping, 7 sites were included in the first group, 3 in the second and 7 in the third. The differences between the group sizes in this lightly populated region are due to the fact the most of the downwind data are located either immediately adjacent to the seeding target area, or in the Utah/Colorado border region. However, the results from this 50-mile grouping seem believable, Figure 4. Ratios (upper) and seasonal as shown in Table 3. The data are plotted in precipitation difference plots for target and Figure 4. These results imply that seeding downwind sites contributed to increases in wintertime precipitation for ~100 miles downwind of the target, with the indicated increases declining rather To investigate even finer spatial resolution quickly beyond 100 miles. Target site data are of the apparent downwind seeding effects, the from a previously published regression analysis of downwind region was subdivided into a total of six seeding effects on the target area (Solak, 2002), groups, each covering a distance band and are obtained using a different set of control approximately 25 miles in width. Table 4 shows sites which are better correlated with the seeding the results of this grouping, which are plotted in target sites. 56 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
Figure 5. These 25-mile results are similar to the analysis using 50-mile distance groupings, with the exception of the second group, which consists of only one site that appears to be an outlier. The results again suggest increases in precipitation in the first ~100 miles downwind of the seeding target, with seeded/non-seeded ratios decaying to unity about 125 miles downwind.
The results within the various downwind distance partitions are consolidated in Table 5 for ease of comparison. In each cell (downwind distance band) of the table, the following data are shown: the observed/predicted (O/P) ratio, the resultant difference in precipitation (dp), the correlation coefficient (r), and the number of sites in the distance band (n). A distance scale is shown at the bottom of the table for identification of the various downwind distance groups.
Table 4. Results of grouping data into 25- mile-wide downwind distance bands
Distance No. of Ratio Precip. Corre- From Sites Obs/ Diff. lation Target Pred (in.) (r) Figure 5. Ratios (upper) and seasonal Target 27 1.14 1.39" 0.97 precipitation difference plots for target and downwind sites 0-25 6 1.12 0.35" 0.90 miles pertain to ground-based seeding with pure (non- chlorinated) silver iodide (AgI) formulations using
25-50 1 1.42 0.49" 0.59 ammonium iodide (NH4I) as the acetone solution miles solubilizer. Use of NH4I is thought to greatly reduce, if not eliminate, photolytic deactivation of 50-75 1 1.19 0.32" 0.82 the ice nuclei (Super et al, 1975). Use of a four- miles month season as the evaluation unit yields bulk index estimates appropriate to addressing the 75-100 2 1.16 0.35" 0.75 basic downwind effects questions, while helping to miles minimize the impact of dominant storms or outliers. 100-125 4 1.06 0.25" 0.88 miles Recognizing the limitations of the methodology and especially the statistical 125-150 3 0.98 -0.09" 0.83 uncertainties involved, we nonetheless consider miles the indicated results to be useful and likely approximating reality. The results appear to support the statements that a) there is little 5. DISCUSSION, CONCLUSIONS AND evidence that precipitation increases in a target SPECULATIONS area lead to reductions in precipitation downwind, and b) that the better quality statistical analyses This work is a-posteriori, the analysis suggest that precipitation changes in extra method being a simple adaptation of the (downwind) areas tend to be of the same sign and commonly used historical target/control regression magnitude as the effects in a primary target area (Long, 2001). approach to evaluations of non-randomized operational projects (Dennis, 1980). The results April 2003 SOLAK ET AL. 57
TABLE 5 Summary of Downwind Indications
All Downwind Sites: O/P = 1.08, dp = 0.26", r = 0.95, n = 17
O/P = 1.14, dp = 0.36", r = 0.91, n = 8 O/P = 1.05, dp = 0.16", r = 0.89, n = 9
O/P = 1.14, dp = 0.38" O/P = 1.17, dp = 0.34" O/P = 1.03, dp = 0.10" r = 0.91, n = 7 r = 0.82, n = 3 r = 0.91, n = 7
O/P = 1.12 O/P = 1.42 O/P = 1.19 O/P = 1.16 O/P = 1.06 O/P = 0.98 dp = 0.35" dp = 0.49" dp = 0.32" dp = 0.35" dp = 0.25" dp = -0.09" r = 0.90 r = 0.59 r = 0.82 r = 0.75 r = 0.88 r = 0.83 n = 6 n = 1 n = 1 n = 2 n = 4 n = 3 0 25 50 75 100 125 150
Downwind Distance (miles)
Beyond the indication of downwind An apparent west-east axis of elevated increases (rather than decreases) in precipitation, individual downwind site ratios, which can be seen perhaps one of the more useful indications is the in Figure 3, may reflect the influences of a) the fact apparent 100-125 mile limit of the downwind that the higher ratio sites are more centrally increases. The magnitudes and downwind extent located downwind of the target area and are, thus, of the indicated precipitation increases are most often under the seeded plumes under a wide consistent with the concept of simple downwind variety of wind flow situations, b) terrain-induced transport of the pure AgI ice forming nuclei. At the nuclei concentration and channeling, or c) seeding rates involved in this project, 8 g/hr from anomalous values due to imperfect statistical each ground generator, it is difficult to imagine that correlation. the ice nuclei concentrations produced by the cloud seeding would remain adequate for any A recent change to the use of chlorinated, discernible precipitation enhancement effects so-called faster acting, seeding formulations for beyond the 100-125 mile downwind limit indicated this project provides a distinct operational break by this study. No appreciable dynamic seeding point and may eventually yield an opportunity for effects are expected, given the low seeding rates comparison of the apparent downwind effects and the types of storms involved. between the two seeding formulations once a sufficient number of seasons using the new In the case of this evaluation, even though formulation have accumulated. the observed/predicted precipitation ratios are similar for the target and downwind areas, the 6. REFERENCES estimated amounts of additional precipitation in the downwind areas are considerably less than in the Dennis, A.S., 1980: Weather Modification by target, as seen in Tables 3-5. This is because of Cloud Seeding, International the dry climate in this downwind “rain shadow” Geophysics Series, Volume 24. area, which on average receives only a small Academic Press, 260 pp. fraction of the precipitation observed in the target. 58 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
Griffith, D.A., J.R. Thompson and D.A. Risch, 1991: A winter cloud seeding program in Utah. J. Wea. Mod, 23, 27-34.
Griffith, D.A., J.R. Thompson, D.A. Risch and M.E. Solak, 1997: An update on a winter cloud seeding program in Utah. J. Wea. Mod., 29, 95-99.
Long, A.B., 2001: Review of downwind extra- area effects of precipitation enhancement. J. Wea. Mod., 33, 24-35.
Solak, M.E., D.A. Griffith and D.P. Yorty, 2002: Summary and Evaluation of 2001-2002 Winter Cloud Seeding Operations in Central and Southern Utah. NAWC Report No. WM 02-2 to Utah Water Resources Development Corp. and State of Utah Div. Of Water Resources.
Stauffer, N.E. and K. Williams, 2000: Utah Cloud Seeding Program, Increased Runoff/Cost Analyses. Utah Dept. Of Natural Resources, Division of Water Resources, Salt Lake City, UT.
Stauffer, N.E., 2001: Cloud Seeding - The Utah Experience. J. Wea. Mod., 33, 63-69.
Super, A.B., J.T. McPartland and J.A. Heimbach, Jr., 1975: Field observations of the
persistence of AgI-NH4I-acetone ice nuclei in daylight. J. Appl. Meteor., 14, 1572-1577. April 2003 AL-FENADI 59
Cloud seeding in Libya
Younis Al-Fenadi Cloud seeding Senior weather forecaster Meteorology Department Tripoli – Libya [email protected]
1. Abstract The concept of weather modification has appeared so far in the past, that human has tried Weather refers to the state of to change weather by different ways, especially atmosphere at a certain geographical place and the efforts done to bring rainy clouds to drought period of time. It is described in terms of many regions, or increase the rainfall rates in the semi- meteorological variables or elements such as arid areas. dry and wet temperatures, wind speed and direction, precipitation and many others, while Although measuring some physical meteorology is the science which studies changes in clouds that occur due to the seeding, weather conditions and all the atmospheric many questions still need to be answered. Can process and its impacts or influences on our life we move the rain from a place to another ? what in general. is the influence on water budget ? does the increase of rainfall in a place results a decrease Although weather events and elsewhere? And more in general can the phenomena such as precipitations are needed in weather modification be controlled? (Wegman & our life, weather may be considered one of the DePriest, 1980) natural disasters which bring heavy rains, floods and strong winds lead to destroy, death, and However, recently, weather modification economic losses when it occurs in some regions program referring to the cloud seeding of the world. experiments, that are carrying out for different In addition, rainfall is one of the most purposes such as : meteorological elements and weather indicators to measure the wet seasons to be used in 1 – Precipitation enhancement : agriculture to planet a variety of food crops In this program a comprehensive research needed for both human and animal. of cloud physics characteristics and climatology, to examine its ability to be In dry regions, weather modification treated by some chemical agent materials could be a practical or operational solution to such as silver iodide (AgI) to produce more produce more precipitation to overcome the rain than normal. shortage arises. In this regard “meteorologists have concerned themselves with the 2 – Hail suppression : development of means for increasing rainfall. Hail is a kind of precipitation which has been Although techniques presently available are not occurred associated with sever at all likely to lead to a significant change in the thunderstorms in some areas. water budget of the earth as a whole, there are Hail suppression operations stop the growth indications that it may be possible to produce and developing of raindrops in the hail small but important changes in the clouds and storm, and break it down to fall in liquid form precipitation over limited region.” (Battan, 1965) not as a solid precipitation (hail).
This paper defines weather modification 3 – Fog dispersion : and will highlight some points and stages of the Fog is defined as a very low layered cloud, Libyan cloud seeding as a weather modification mainly stratus type, which reduced the experiment for increasing rainfall. vertical and horizontal visibility. Cloud seeding operations are carried out to make 2. Weather modification these clouds dispread and clear the sky. These operations usually conducted in the Weather modification is defined as “ any aviation civil aerodromes and or military air change in weather that is included by human force bases airports where the flight activity. This activity may be either intentional or operations do not need to stop anytime inadvertent.” (Moran & Morgan, 1994, 193) especially in the early mornings.
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3. Cloud Seeding in Libya
Clouds are the most related meteorological element to precipitation which is the main source of water in the earth, with many other phenomena. Clouds are very important in weather modification programs which study the cloud type, its average age, origin formation and movement.
For example, fog which is very low layered clouds could be studied in a certain area in terms of occurrence days number, intensity and other parameters to launch a fog collection program to develop the scientific research in this field and find the possibility to use it as a source 4. Objectives and goals of cloud physics for fresh water. studies in Libya
Mediterranean region is one of the The scientific committee which was complex cloud formation places in type, age nominated by the Libyan meteorological and movement in the world due to the unique department and the related national institutions Mediterranean cycloginesis, and that is why to set the objectives and goals of the cloud there is a need to carry out more research on physics programme in Libya decided to conduct this subject and the related aspects of cloud and stimulate an experiment for more formation in this region to find out its effects, understanding of the physics process of the ability to be treated and modified to produce clouds over the country and encourage Libyan more rain than in the normal conditions. scientists to participate in research relevant to weather modification activities. Also it Libya is located at the Mediterranean considered participation in regional and an region with the longest coastal line which is international work by doing this kind of research about 1900 km, the place which considered to especially in an arid and semi arid regions will be very near to the cloud formation and be very helpful in this field to explore the cycloginesis process affecting all the area. possibility of obtaining a cheaper and more Water resources in Libya is very limited and thus reliable source of water. In addition of that, it water is very valuable. Due to developing considered cloud seeding programme a further activities in Libya during the last three decades, step to transfer the sophisticated technology of demand on the water supply has increased weather modification for rain augmentation to dramatically to meet industry, agricultural and this region of the world. population requirements, and once Libya has no rivers, lakes nor heavy precipitation areas, 5. Benefits rainfall is considered the main source for ground water, but this rainfall is variable and unreliable Rainfall enhancement through cloud in terms of amount, intensity, distribution and seeding in Libya results in direct and indirect time of occurrence as shown in figure (1). benefits. The anticipated benefits of cloud seeding are summarized to be the possible For these reasons department of increase in surface water supplies to meet meteorology in Libya has became very urban, industrial and agricultural demands, the concerned to help in this sense and has decided potential increases in the volume of ground to conduct a cloud physics study to serve as a water stored due to increased rainfall with the guide for weather modification and cloud potential increases of economic benefits through seeding project, especially when the amounts of increased crop production, employment and moisture and cumuliform clouds pass through improved standard of living, in addition of the the atmosphere over the Libyan coastal line, possible increases in vegetation resulting from without producing good amounts of rain were increased rainfall and runoff, leading to realized and identified. improvement in grazing. Another benefits are introduced to be the improvement of forest areas for recreational purposes, and development of variety of new industries as a result of establishing more dependable water resources, with many other socio economic impacts
April 2003 AL-FENADI 61 resulting from increase of rainfall and various Sirt site which is located about midway impacts resulting from increased economic between Tripoli and El-Marje sites equipped with activities. an Enterprise C-band radar, it is also capable to PPI and RHI displays, the data was logged and 6. History of Cloud Seeding in Libya displayed using a mini computer. And another Enterprise C-band radar was located at El-Marje Libya has a Mediterranean climate site. Concerning the weather radars, it was felt which is very hot and dry summers and mid- that more study of the available radar data is winter rainfall maximum. This maximum needed especially processing the digital radar decreases in intensity quite rapidly south toward. data. Rainfall in this arid area is quite variable and can not support any agriculture activities. Two aircrafts were utilized for cloud seeding operations : one twin engine Cessna As (Al-Fenadi,1999) has pointed and 402 and the second is turbo -charged piper explained that : Navajos. The aircrafts were equipped for instrument flight rules (IFR) , including colour any increase in the frequency and total weather radar and de-ice boots. They were amount of rainfall, which might result in a modified for cloud seeding operations by the widening of the agricultural coastal strip, addition of two racks of dispensing (AgI) flares would be extremely beneficial to the entire mounted on the underside of each aircrafts. Libya. It was for this reason in October 1971, Airborne data system to measure and record Sierra Research Corporation (USA) signed a critical atmospheric and cloud physical contract with the Ministry of Agriculture and parameters such as Ice Particles Concentration Agrarian Reform to conduct seeding (IPC) , liquid water content (LWC) of clouds, air experimentation over selected areas of temperature, dew point temperature. Northern Libya, which begun actually in November 1971. Depending upon this At the three operation sites two VHF experiment results operations of cloud transceivers are installed at the radar consoles seeding experiment has conducted and to provide communications between the aircraft continued since November 19,1980 in Tripoli and radar controller in addition to telephone at the North of Libya, then it was extended in facilities. 1981 to Sirt and El-marje sites to cover all the coastal area of the country. 8. World Meteorological Organization efforts on weather modification 7. Facilities and Equipment World Meteorological Organization is the
father of meteorology and of course weather Libyan sites for cloud seeding modification programs. It announced to establish operations are located along the costal line and the Mediterranean regional centre for equipped with all the required and necessary precipitation enhancement in Italy to encourage modern facilities needed to carry out the the countries in the region to launch their seasonal operations which start in October till weather modification programs to increase the March the year next. rainfall.
Tripoli site is equipped with a Mitsubishi Libya has supported the establishment of C-band radar mounted on a 30m tower, the regional centre and submitted a documented complete with Plan Position Indicator (PPI) proposal to grant the use of its physical space to which displays the horizontal plan view of the carry out a regional weather modification precipitation echoes and is used to determine experiment or program, and provide the regional the location of the clouds relative to the radar centre with installations and equipment, such as site, thus their location can be verified relative to an aircraft with cloud seeding specifications in the target area. With this display, we can Libyan operations, cloud seeding pilots, determine the location of the cloud areas as well radiosond station, cloud seeding weather as their movement through measurement of forecasters, meteorologists, AgI flares. Also sequential positions, and with Range Height Libya announced to participate in a work team to Indicator (RHI) which displays a vertical cross- carry out a regional experiment in Libya or in section of precipitation echoes at selected one of the region member countries, and to host azimuth. and organise a weather modification workshop or conference for the region member countries.
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9. Evaluation and results of cloud and that would be a contribution of world wide seeding importance.
Evaluating weather modification Hopefully, the establishment of the programs and cloud seeding projects which has Mediterranean centre for cloud seeding for been carried out in many countries is to answer precipitation enhancement will make all many questions about the positive results of governments in the region to pay more attention cloud seeding work, and if it has achieved any to the water shortage problem in this region, and physical success or not. In this regard the consequently give it the required concern to fund findings of one of the experiments which has all the research and operational programmes been carried in Florida (USA) were very positive applied to use all the different resources to and encouraging. It resulted a 25% increase in increase any additional amounts of fresh water rainfall when the clouds were seeded by silver in the region. Finally any increase in rainfall by iodide. (Moran&Morgan,1994, p177) cloud seeding may present an opportunity toward meeting the future water demand in the Also in Libya the experiment results has arid regions. referred to a certain change to the cloud characteristics and a limited increase in rainfall 11. Bibliography amounts in the selected clouds for that experiment. However, still there is a need to find - Al-Fenadi, Y. (1999) Description of cloud out if the new generation can provide visual seeding experiment in North Libya, WSTA 4th evidence of the experiment results that can be gulf water conference, Feb. 13-17, 1999, state accepted by the scientific community and used of Bahrain, Vol. 1, pp 431-451. as confirmation of the success or failure of cloud - Battan,L.J.(1965) Cloud physics and cloud seeding. seeding. UK:Heinemann educational book ltd. - Moran,J.M & Morgan,M.D.(1989) Meteorology: To answer such question like this, the atmosphere and the science of weather. thinking about the visual and statistical 3th ed., Macmillan publishing company, NY evidences is very important. If we look to the - Wegman, E.J.& DePriest, D.J.(1980) statistical matter in the Libyan project particularly, it is analysis of weather modification experiments. clear that weather radar survey and satellite Lecture notes in statistics. Wegman, E.J.& images of the modified clouds that took place DePriest, D.J. (Eds.) vol. 3 p. iv NY. Marcel afforded enough evidence at times, and were Dekker Inc. supported by scientific explanations which proves the effectiveness of the cloud seeding experiments carried out.
10. Conclusion
It seems that operational and research systems of weather modification and cloud seeding work effectively in some regions of the world and in Libya as well.
However, a lot of research and modern and advanced evaluation methods are recommended to be taken to improve this scientific effort to bring more better results.
Moreover, weather modification and cloud seeding as has been described above are very big and difficult issues, therefore scientists and experts in this field should be encouraged to modify the rout of this science. This would open the opportunity to discover and apply alternative methodologies which could produce objective evidence of the effects of seeding, and any successful achievements would contribute to the development of cloud seeding technology which could help other semi-arid regions of the world
April 2003 RUIZ-COLUMBIÉ 63
A Brief Comment about Ergodicity and Rosenfeld-Lensky Method
Arquimedes Ruiz-Columbié 8696 Hangar Rd. San Angelo, Texas 76901
Abstract
The Rosenfeld-Lensky method to infer cloud microstructure from satellite information is analyzed under the ergodic hypothesis that states at its basis. However, processes of merging and clustering might undermine this assumption. Considerations about quasi-ergodicity are done to validate conclusions about the possible application of this method in the evaluation of operational cloud seeding programs.
Introduction convective clouds in a specific cluster and composes a function, cloud-top The use of satellite information to study temperature vs. reff, considering each cloud weather phenomena is today a large and as a representative of a particular stage of ‘a rapidly developing subject. In the particular typical cloud’. This latter theoretical-basis case of Cloud Physics, Rosenfeld and consideration (the construction of a typical Lensky (1998) designed a method to infer cloud, which exhibits the essential cloud microstructure using NOAA-14, characteristic of a group) is known as the multi-spectral, AVHRR (Advanced Very ergodic hypothesis, and was introduced by High Resolution Radiometer), which uses Boltzman and Gibbs in their works on the visible band (0.65 µm) to select points statistical physics and thermodynamics two with bright clouds whereas the thermal centuries ago. infrared (10.8 and 12.0 µm) is used to determine cloud-top temperature and the Ergodicity solar radiation component of 3.7 µm wave band to calculate cloud-top particle size. Historically, the pristine idea came from The quantity used to characterize cloud Boltzmann’s ergodic hypothesis (Petersen, microphysical structure is the effective 1983). Boltzmann in his works stated that radius (reff), whose dependence as a function the long-term time average along a single of cloud-top temperature can show very history of an ensemble should equal the important aspects of the microphysical average at any other single moment over evolution of clouds. The main problem that all possible histories (all possible this methodology faces is the feature that ensembles). The former average would satellites carrying AVHRR sensors provide represent the ‘typical history’ and the latter only twice-daily snapshot image of a ground average would take into account all histories target (only one shot in the afternoon for at a given time. In fact, there are now at Texas) and a single cloud cannot be least two ways of averaging, one taking one followed continuously in its evolution; its ensemble and observing it for a long time temporal evolution cannot be observed. To (this is the climatologic style), and the other overcome this handicap, the methodology taking many systems and observing them all utilizes the results for all the growing in one time. The ergodic hypothesis
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postulates that time average is equal to perception of the observers whether or not ensemble average. In order to obtain this there is repetition of observed states, or conclusion Boltzmann, and Gibbs later, drastic changes, or violation of the quasi- hypothesized that each history filled out all ergodic condition. of the phase space (their case was a surface of constant energy in a phase space), which Violations of quasi-ergodicity are usually means that in equilibrium the ensemble can present in the evolution of complex systems visit every state with equal probability. Is with many interacting components: these this ergodic hypothesis always correct? systems present path dependence and face Gibbs answered positively, but certainly bifurcation points in their evolution. The there are many assumptions involved. First fact that clouds are complex, open, and it all, how large should be the time of ordered non-equilibrium structures -despite average, because for gases (the main the second law of Thermodynamics- Boltzmann’s subject) this time is very small indicates the presence of a broken ergodicity to obtain the equilibrium (ergodicity works), and the formation of cloud patterns with whereas in the case of clouds this time can self-organization. Nevertheless, it is also be very large, and besides, clouds are open possible sometimes to identify ‘ergodic system, importing energy and mass from the components’ of behavior, which means that environment, and also are not actually in between knots of transience a system might equilibrium, they are complex structures in behave quasi-ergodically. the edge of atmospheric chaos, far from equilibrium, whereas equilibrium means for Some necessary (not sufficient) conditions them death (Ruiz et al, 2002). for quasi-ergodicity must be observed:
It appears that ergodicity will rigorously - Conservation of dimensionality: work only in dead clouds, a stage without The system under observation must interest to Weather Modification. However maintain a similar structure and not all is lost, and its range could be function during all its life. Structural extended, if the clouds are considered living and functional changes are (or may in a stationary regime, far away of transient be) inherently non-ergodic, which features, in a dynamical environment that means that the system is too unique. permits an evolution where past, present and Clustering is a phenomenon that can future statistics of the cloud system are change dimensionality. approximately the same. Then, we would be - Presence of almost every stage of speaking of quasi-ergodicity (or weak development at any time. ergodicity). It is important to point out that - Approximately the same percent for two timescales have been found in the the occurrence of a stage in the evolution of the convective clouds, one scale ensemble at a given time that the of growing, the other of stationary behavior percent of time in this stage for any and later decay (quasi-ergodic). single history. Measurements should be carefully analyzed - Similarity between earliest and to be certain that they belong to the ergodic recent observations. timescale. Moreover, the aforementioned consideration about the environment is not always true, and therefore, the system has to be followed in detail to determine under the
April 2003 RUIZ-COLUMBIÉ 65
Rosenfeld-Lensky Method Afresh The actual method is successful in those aforementioned identifications at a given In the case of Rosenfeld-Lensky method, the time (the time of the satellite shot), and it actual average is the ensemble average over has been used for the identification of all the growing convective clouds present in seeding signatures (Woodley et al, 2000). a specific cluster. The method then uses a Albeit, in this case, and its extension for quasi-ergodic treatment to obtain the evaluation purposes, it is very important to function cloud-top temperature vs. reff. be sure that quasi-ergodicity is maintained The shape of this function has plenty of during all the period of analysis, because information on the microphysical processes changes in the system, especially merging in the observed clouds. The information and clustering, can induce variations in allows identifying maritime and continental microphysics that can be erroneously clouds (large droplets in the formers, large associated with seeding operations. The concentrations of many small droplets in the analysis of the microphysical processes must latter), but also, the microphysical processes be accompanied with thermodynamic and present in those clouds. Five microphysical dynamic considerations on the formation zones have been identified. An important and evolution of the observed clouds, the note has been made then: the appropriate tracking of the systems, and the aforementioned function is a description of detailed description of the actual histories. the time evolution of a growing convective These tasks are only possible if the satellite cloud top (ergodic hypothesis), and it can be information (only one shot from AVHRR) considered a description of the vertical is complemented with other satellite images, composition of a convective cloud at a given radar tracking, ground and upper air stations. time throughout its depth only as long as no Additional calculations of the effective precipitation is falling through the cloud radius using other remote sensors and the from higher levels. It is clear from this correlations with the measurements from statement that precipitation is a factor that AVHRR might show the evolution of this breaks ergodicity. However, we also know variable in time, and important feature for that the growing time-scale of convective evaluation purposes. The principal condition clouds is essentially not ergodic. How to to follow is that quasi-ergodicity must be avoid the contradiction? fulfilled.
Probably the unique alternative is to use the Conclusions actual measurements of reff to determine the characteristics of the convective clouds in - Assumption of ergodicity is present their early stages, and later follow each one in Rosenfeld-Lensky method of of the cells to figure out the temporal multispectral analyses of satellite evolution of this variable for each particular image to infer cloud microstructure type of evolution (let’s say single-cell, using AVHRR. This assumption multi-cell, or super-cell types). Then, in allows the construction of ‘a typical each one of these types the new calculations cloud’ from many actual clouds in a will offer “the typical case” based on the specific target area using only one quasi-ergodic assumption. snapshot. - Clouds are not really in a state of equilibrium, in fact they are open complex processes with a behavior
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in the opposite way of entropy (exporting entropy), although there is a timescale where they can be modeled in a stationary regime and in the absence of drastic changes the quasi-ergodic approximation may be valid. - Phenomena of merging and/or clustering (non-stationary) might destroy quasi-ergodicity through structural and functional changes. - Appropriate tracking of observed clouds should be done to guarantee the fulfillment of quasi-ergodicity. Additional calculations should be done to figure out the temporal evolution of the effective radius.
References
Petersen, K., 1983: Ergodic Theory. Cambridge Univ. Press, 329 pp.
Rosenfeld D., and I. M. Lensky, 1998: Satellite-Based Insights into Precipitation Formation Processes in Continental and Maritime Convective Clouds. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc.,79,11, 2457-2476.
Ruiz, A., M. Mittermaier, and D. Bates: Modeling TITAN control clouds, J. Wea. Mod., 34, 100-103. (non-reviewed)
Woodley, W. L., D. Rosenfeld, and A. Strautins, 2000: Identification of a seeding Signature in Texas using Multi-Spectral Satellite Imagery. J. Wea. Mod.,32, 37-52.
April 2003 ROSENFELD 67
Reply to “A Brief Comment about Ergodicity and Rosenfeld-Lensky Method”
Daniel Rosenfeld Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
The Method of Rosenfeld and Lensky A. Ruiz suspects that clouds evolve in (1998), hereafter RL, indeed utilizes the ways that compromise the ergodicity ergodicity of specific key properties of assumption, in two ways: clouds at the scales that can be encompassed by a satellite snap shot. In First is the concern about different growth order to avoid the pitfalls that were modes in clouds when they grow and specified by A. Ruiz based on general merge into convective complexes. theoretical considerations, it is indeed important to specify more clearly than has This is indeed a theoretically valid been made by RL the cloud properties that concern. However, reality shows that the do show ergodicity. growing convective elements in a given convective regime, as defined by specific The effective radius (Re) is obtained only thermodynamic and aerosols conditions, for the cloud tops, and not for the interior have remarkably similar T-Re relations. of the clouds. The ergodicity argument of RL exactly states that the effective radius Proper representation of the growing at the top of a growing convective element convective elements is simply done by during its growth undergoes the same taking care that the snap shot will include evolution as a function of cloud top growing cloud elements at all top temperature (T) (and hence as a function temperatures of interest. This is usually of cloud top height and as a function of easily obtained at scales of 100X100 km. height and time) as the top properties of This has been documented as the smallest ensemble of growing convective elements scale that represents in a snap shot the at a given time, for a given convective equivalent of a precipitating cloud cluster regime. throughout its life cycle (Rosenfeld et al., 1990). The cloud microstructure below the top and the precipitation forming processes are A convective cloud at a given height then inferred from the evolution of the usually remains nearly at the same effective radius with cloud top effective radius even as it matures, as long temperature. The qualification of RL that as it is not developing ice phase. This has the inner cloud composition at a given been shown to be the case by aircraft temperature is reflected by the cloud top measurements (see RL in their Fig. 10). composition when it was at that Clouds above the freezing level develop temperature, only as long as precipitation ice with time, and hence increase the does not fall through that height, is not indicated Re as they mature. Therefore, the really a limitation in the methodology of spread of the Re is typically quite tight RL. It is just part of the inference until the 0oC isotherm, and can spread procedure from the T-Re dependence to considerably (not always) at colder the microphysical and precipitation temperatures (RL; Rosenfeld, 2000; processes. Rosenfeld et al., 2001 and 2002; Rosenfeld and Woodley, 2003). The youngest cloud elements are those with the smallest Re for 68 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35 a given T. This property is used for and published online in “Science selecting the young growing convective Express” on 15 August 2002. elements in the determination of the microphysical zones. Rosenfeld D. and I. M. Lensky, 1998: Spaceborne sensed insights into The second concern of A. Ruiz for precipitation formation processes in violation of the ergodicity assumption is continental and maritime clouds. The the concern of inhomogeneous field, Bulletin of American Meteorological mixing different modes of convection. Society, 79, 2457-2476. This concern becomes more valid when the scale of the composed snap shot Rosenfeld D., Y. Rudich and R. Lahav, increases. For a 100X100 km the 2001: Desert dust suppressing likelihood to mix convection modes due to precipitation -- a possible different aerosols and thermodynamic desertification feedback loop. situation is not very large in an area such Proceedings of the National Academy as Texas. A more informed selection of of Sciences, 98, 5975-5980. areas can take into account air mass (e.g., fronts) and geographic (e.g., land-sea) Rosenfeld D. and W. L. Woodley, 2003: boundaries. Again, the space scale also Closing the 50-year Circle: From translates to time scale. Recent Cloud Seeding to Space and Back to measurements of the same areas by late Climate Change Through Precipitation morning and afternoon satellite overpasses Physics. In press, Meteorological (MODIS on Terra and Aqua) show that the Monographs, AMS. T-Re relations are usually conserved for convective cloud systems. This is supported by aircraft measurements. These findings are now being processed into a full article. These observations are in the directions suggested by A. Ruiz, and therefore, should go a long way to alleviate his theoretical concerns.
References:
Rosenfeld D., 2000: Suppression of Rain and Snow by Urban and Industrial Air Pollution. Science, 287 (5459), 1793- 1796.
Rosenfeld, D., D. Atlas, and D. A. Short, l990: The estimation of rainfall by area integrals. Part 2. The Height-Area Rain Threshold (HART) method. Journal of Geophysical Research, 95, 2161-2176.
Rosenfeld D., R. Lahav, A. P. Khain, M. Pinsky, 2002: The role of sea-spray in cleansing air pollution over ocean via cloud processes. “Research Article” in Science, 297, 1667-1670. Highlighted April 2003 ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION 69
ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION
ARTICLE I provided that the place of the meeting shall be stated NAME in the notice of the meeting.
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ARTICLE II There shall be five classes of membership in the As- DURATION sociation. Each class shall be afforded the privileges of membership as indicated. The duration of this corporation shall be perpetual, unless otherwise resolved by legal proceedings. (1) Member: Any person who subscribes to the statement of purposes of the Association, ARTICLE III upon payment of the prescribed annual dues, PURPOSES shall be afforded the privileges of member- ship. Members shall receive the Journal of The Association shall function as a nonprofit corpo- the Association, and shall have the right to ration. Its purposes include, but are not necessarily vote in the business of the Association and limited to, the following: to hold any office in the Association. (2) Student Member: Any person, engaged in a (1) Promotion: Promoting research, develop- full-time program of study leading to a de- ment, and understanding of weather modifi- gree in the atmospheric sciences, engineer- cation for beneficial uses. ing or other subjects related to the science of (2) Standards of Conduct: Encouraging and weather modification, and who subscribes to promoting the highest standards of conduct the statement of purposes of the Associa- including certification of individual mem- tion, upon payment of the prescribed annual bers qualified to execute field experiments dues, shall be afforded the privileges of stu- of operations in weather modification. dent membership. Student members shall (3) Information Center: Serving as a clearing- receive the Journal of the Association but house and dissemination agent for weather may not vote in the business of, nor hold of- modification oriented literature and infor- fice in the Association. mation. (3) Corporation Member: Any organization (4) Policy Statements: Assuming an active role with active programs in weather modifica- and maintaining a strong voice in the pro- tion, or with interests directly related to duction and dissemination of policy state- weather modification activities, which sub- ments concerning all aspects of weather scribes to the statement of purposes of the modification. Association, upon payment of the prescribed (5) Journal: Publishing, annually or more fre- annual dues, shall be afforded the privileges quently, as the official organ of the Associa- of corporate membership. Corporation tion, the JOURNAL OF WEATHER members shall receive the Journal of the As- MODIFICATION containing scientific arti- sociation and may designate one individual cles and reports about weather modification to act for the corporation in the affairs of the problems and activities, and accounts of As- Association. The designated individual shall sociation business. have the same rights and privileges afforded members of the Association. ARTICLE IV (4) Honorary Member: Members, or former PRINCIPAL PLACE OF BUSINESS members, of the Association who have made outstanding contributions to the Asso- The principal place of business of the corporation ciation may, subject to the unanimous con- shall be located at 1141 East 3900 South, Suite A- sent of the Board of Directors of the Asso- 130, Salt Lake City, Utah 84117, but the meetings of ciation, be nominated for honorary member- the Board of Directors may be held at other places, ship in the Association. Election shall be by 70 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
simple majority vote of the members present ARTICLE VIII at any regular or special meeting. Honorary JOURNAL membership shall be non-expiring for the life of the member. Members so elected (1) The official JOURNAL OF WEATHER shall be excused from the payment of dues. MODIFICATION shall be issued by the They shall receive the Journal of the Asso- Editor, appointed to a three-year term by the ciation and enjoy the same privileges as Board of Directors, of which he shall be- members of the Association. come a member ex officio. The Editor shall (5) Retired Member: The retired member must have been an active Member for at least be over the age of 65, retired, and must have three years, and may retain, or be elected to, had 20 or more years of active membership other office in the Association during his in the WMA. These members are to receive tenure. the Journal each year, while paying only (2) The Editor shall appoint, with the concur- one-half of the normal membership dues. rence of the Board of Directors, an Editorial Board of five members, serving five-year ARTICLE VI staggered terms. At least one member of the DUES Editorial Board shall hold Association certi- All dues for the Association shall be paid on a calen- fication. The Editorial Board shall elect its dar year basis. Annual dues for the various categories own chairman, and shall establish the edito- of membership shall be set by vote of the members rial policy of the Journal. Its members may present at the annual meeting, on the recommenda- assist the Editor in evaluation of material tion of the Board of Directors. submitted to him, acting as referees for cer- tain articles. ARTICLE VII CERTIFICATION OF MEMBERS ARTICLE IX ADMINISTRATION There shall be two classes of certification in the As- sociation. The administration of the Association shall be vested in the Board of Directors which shall include the (1) Certified Weather Modification Manager: A elected officers and trustees of the Association as person who is qualified to design, supervise, follows: evaluate, and assume overall responsibility for field experiments or operations in (1) President: The President shall be responsible weather modification. for the administration of the Association. He (2) Certified Weather Modification Operator: A shall appoint such committees as he deems person who is qualified to conduct the nor- necessary for the successful accomplishment mal day-to-day, on-site activities associated of the Association's aims. The President with field experiments or operations in shall preside at all meetings and shall be a weather modification. member ex-officio of all committees. (2) President-elect: The President-elect shall Certification shall be based upon experience, knowl- succeed the President in office. The Presi- edge and character. Certification shall be granted by dent-elect shall preside over the adminis- the unanimous vote of a Certification Board which trative functions of the Association in the shall be composed of three Certified Weather Modi- absence, or by direction, of the President. fication Managers who shall be appointed by the Pre- (3) Secretary: The Secretary shall be responsi- sident. The members of the Certification Board shall ble for the minutes of each meeting and each serve six years on staggered terms. Changes in shall notify the membership of impending procedure for certification of members shall be made meetings. In the absence of both the Presi- only after an affirmative majority vote of the Certi- dent and the President-elect, the Secretary fied Members present at any regular meeting. shall preside over the administrative func- tions of the Association.
April 2003 ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION 71
(4) Treasurer: The Treasurer shall conduct the The presiding officer and ten percent of the voting financial affairs of the Association and keep members shall constitute a quorum. The location and accurate records thereof. The functions of date of all meetings shall be determined by a majority the Secretary and Treasurer may be com- vote of the Board of Directors. bined in one person at the pleasure of the membership of the Association. ARTICLE XII (5) Trustees: Three Trustees, to serve staggered AMENDMENTS three-year terms shall be elected by the membership to represent private groups, These Articles of Incorporation may be amended in university groups, and government groups, the following manner: respectively. It shall be the duty of the Trus- tees to represent the interests of their respec- (1) The Board of Directors shall adopt a resolu- tive groups as members of the Board of Di- tion setting forth proposed amendments. rectors and to assist the President and other Written notice setting forth proposed elected officers, as may be required, in the amendments shall be submitted to the mem- administration of the Association. bership at least thirty days prior to the an- (6) Editor: The Editor of the Journal of Weather nual meeting at which they are to be consid- Modification shall be a member of the ered. Board of Directors ex officio. Even if he is (2) The proposed amendments shall be adopted also an officer or trustee, he will have only by a two-thirds vote representing a combina- one vote. tion of all members present at the annual meeting plus any absentee ballots received The Board of Directors may employ such other per- up to the day of the balloting on the floor, sons as may be necessary for the conduct of Associa- providing that the total votes cast constitute tion business. a quorum.
ARTICLE X ELECTIONS
Elections shall be held at the annual meeting. Offi- cers to be elected will include a President-elect, Sec- retary, Treasurer, and one Trustee.
Nominations for elective offices shall be made by a nominating committee appointed by the President. Nominations will also be accepted from the floor, as called for, prior to balloting.
New officers and trustees shall assume their duties at the conclusion of the annual meeting, and serve until their successors assume office.
ARTICLE XI MEETINGS
Meetings shall be held at least once a calendar year. The first meeting of each calendar year shall be the annual meeting unless otherwise designated by the Board of Directors. Advance notice of all meetings shall be mailed by the Secretary to all members at least thirty days prior to the date of the meeting.
72 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION
Adopted at
Spring 1978 Meeting Tucson, Arizona April 1978
PURPOSE tal units having jurisdiction in the areas where his projects are conducted, particularly those laws The Weather Modification Association (WMA) has and regulations covering weather modification adopted this statement on standards and ethics in order to activities. further the Association’s purposes, which include but are not limited to: 2. The operator will not knowingly participate in activities which can reasonably be expected to be 1. Promoting research, development, under- detrimental to the general public interest or con- standing and application of weather modification for bene- tribute to undue hardship in operational areas. ficial uses. Relationship with Clients 2. Encouraging and promoting the highest standards of conduct in all weather modification activities. 3. The operator will not exaggerate his capabilities, nor guarantee results in terms of future weather TERMS OF REFERENCE conditions. Claims regarding the probable ef- fects of weather modification projects should be All WMA members are expected to act in such a compatible with such “Statements of Capabili- way as to promote the purposes of the WMA. However, ties” as may be set forth by the WMA from time those members, hereinafter referred to as operators, who to time, unless the claims can be justified on the direct or participate in field experiments or operations in basis of results published in a suitable format weather modification, have a special obligation to protect available for review. the interests of the WMA, their profession and the general public. 4. Contracts where a bonus is paid for performance, such as “production” of rainfall over and above The WMA has a program to certify individuals as monthly normals or other arbitrary amounts, are qualified to execute field experiments or operations in detrimental to the development of a sound tech- weather modification. Certification is based upon experi- nology and are to be discouraged. ence, knowledge and character. In considering applications for certification or renewal, the Certification Board will 5. The operator will divulge fully to clients and consider the degree to which each applicant has conformed potential clients all chemicals and methods used. to the present statement on standards and ethics. Violation Proprietary rights to newly-developed materials of the statement on standards and ethics may be cause for or techniques for cloud seeding may be estab- denial or revocation of certification. lished through the obtaining of patents.
Operators are expected to comply with the follow- Relationships with Meteorological Profession ing Code of Ethics, which covers their relationships with the general public, their clients, and the meteorological 6. The operator will conduct himself in a manner to profession. reflect dignity and honor on the profession.
CODE OF ETHICS 7. The operator will keep abreast of scientific and technical developments in the field of weather Relationships with General Public modification and will seek to incorporate im- provements into his operational and research 1. The operator will comply with all laws and regu- programs. lations of the federal, state and local governmen- April 2003 STANDARDS AND ETHICS 73
8. The operator will endeavor to contribute new D. Each project should be under the personal knowledge to the profession by making known direction of a project scientist with knowledge and experi- significant results from operational and research ence in weather modification field projects. He should be programs. stationed as close as practicable to the area of operations. 9. The operator will not knowingly take credit for work done by others, but will attempt to give E. The project scientist should have access to up- credit where due. to-date weather data including, as a minimum, timely weather data and forecasts available through circuits of the 10. The operator will not unjustly criticize fellow National Weather Service. Local atmospheric soundings, workers in his profession, but will refer to the wind observations, radar data, and telemetered precipita- Association information on apparently unethical tion data from remote sites are highly desirable. practices on the part of other operators. F. The operator shall establish criteria and proce- dures for shutting down operations in the face of impend- STANDARDS FOR CONDUCT OF INDIVIDUAL ing severe weather to avoid contributing to, or appearing to PROJECTS contribute to, damaging weather situations. It is recog- nized that some types of projects, e.g., hail suppression, The following standards shall apply to the conduct require operations during or in advance of certain types of of both operational and research projects: severe weather situations. The shutdown criteria and pro- cedures adopted should be specified in advance in writing, A. Each project should have a set of clearly- and should take into account existing water management defined objectives. The operator should provide as precise practices and flood control facilities. a statement as possible of how the objectives are to be reached. G. Evaluations of projects are strongly encour- aged. Any limitations to evaluation should be reported. B. The operator will not undertake work in an Procedures to be used in evaluations should be specified in area where serious conflicts might arise from weather advance. modification activities without taking steps to identify and correct such situations in advance.
C. The operator will conduct each project in such a way as to minimize danger to the public and to the envi- ronment from the use of seeding devices, seeding agents and other appurtenances of his trade.
74 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR CERTIFICATION
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION
PURPOSE OF CERTIFICATION dards and Practices that the WMA has adopted at the time of application. One of the stated purposes of the WMA is to encour- age and promote the highest standards of conduct. In order Weather Modification Operator: - Certification shall to further this goal and to protect the public interest, the be based on character, knowledge and experience. Certifi- WMA has established a certification program for individu- cation shall be granted at the discretion of the Board, but the als qualified to manage and/or operate weather modification following shall be considered minimum requirements: field programs of a research or operational nature. Category A: Twenty months’ actual “in the field” ex- Two types of certification have been established: (1) perience in weather modification research a Certified Weather Modification Manager who has the and/or operations. character, knowledge and experience necessary to design, manage, evaluate and have overall responsibility for a Category B: A degree with at least 25 semester hours of weather modification program; (2) a Certified Weather meteorology and eight months’ actual “in Modification Operator who has the character, knowledge the field” experience in weather modifica- and experience necessary to provide the day-to-day, on-site tion research and/or operations. supervision of a weather modification field program. The field experience must be in a project or projects QUALIFICATIONS FOR CERTIFICATION designed to effect a change in the weather. Actual manipula- tion to produce a desired change is implied. The experience Weather Modification Manager - Certification shall needs to be in a “responsible charge” position involving be based on character, knowledge and experience. Certifi- making treatment decisions and project management. cation shall be granted at the discretion of the Board, but the following shall be considered minimum requirements: An oral examination may be required of the appli- cant. The applicant must agree to accept and abide by the Category A: Eight years’ (96 active months) experience WMA Code of Ethics and any Statement of Standards and in weather modification research and/or Practices that the WMA has adopted at the time of applica- operations. tion.
Category B: A Bachelor’s Degree with at least 25 se- References are required from the employer, sponsor, mester hours of meteorology plus five or project manager for any field experience claimed. No years’ (60 active months) experience in experience credit will be given for any claimed time which weather modification research and/or op- is not supported by a favorable reference. erations.
Category C: A Master’s Degree or a Doctorate in At- PROCEDURE AND FEES FOR CERTIFICATION mospheric Science and three years’ (36 ac- tive months) experience in weather modi- Persons desiring certification as individuals qualified fication research and/or operations. for managing or conducting field experiments or operations in weather modification shall write to the Secretary of the The experience requirement may be fulfilled by Weather Modification Association requesting an application either field work or office or laboratory studies. form and instructions. The completed application form shall be returned to the Secretary and must be accompanied by a In addition to the above requirements, the applicant check in the amount of $150.00 for a Certified Manager must pass a written examination (open book type) and an application and $75.00 for a Certified Operator application oral examination by the Certification Board. The applicant made payable to the Weather Modification Association. must also submit a report authored or co-authored by the This fee will be retained by the Weather Modification Asso- applicant demonstrating the extent of his or her involvement ciation whether the application is accepted or denied. in weather modification. The report must be more than an operations report and must exhibit skills in research or the theory and practice of weather modification.
The applicant must agree to accept and abide by the current WMA Code of Ethics and any Statement of Stan- April 2002 QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR CERTIFICATION 75
The Certification Board shall review the application PERIOD OF CERTIFICATION AND RENEWAL form and all other information required and will determine whether the applicant has satisfied the requirements for Certification of a member shall be effective for a qualification for certification. The Certification Board may period of three years from the date of issuance. Application request additional information from the applicant prior to for renewal of certification shall be submitted prior to expi- making a final decision as to whether or not the applicant ration date in writing and accompanied by a fee of $150 for meets the criteria for certification. a Certified Manager or $75 for a Certified Operator. The same fees apply for those seeking reinstatement after a After review of the application, the Chairman of the lapsed certification. Issuance of renewal or reinstatement Certification Board shall notify the applicant of the decision shall be granted by the Board if there has been no indication of the Board. If the application is approved, the Chairman of violations of the WMA Code of Ethics, or the current of the Certification Board shall give the applicant a certifi- statement on Standards and Practices, and the applicant cate to verify that the individual has met the qualification provides evidence of a continuing involvement in weather for certification. modification during the preceding years amounting to at least 20% of his or her professional working hours, or the Unsuccessful applicants may reapply for certifica- applicant is deemed to be knowledgeable on the current tion not earlier than one calendar year after notification of status of weather modification technology as determined by disapproval. Each subsequent application for certification the Certification Board. If the Board does not recommend shall be accompanied by a payment of the normal fee. renewal or reinstatement, the case may be presented for the consideration of the certified members at any regular meet- ing if the applicant requests. Renewal or reinstatement shall be denied only if a majority of the certified members in attendance at the meeting indicate by secret written ballot that renewal shall be denied. The fee will be retained whether renewal or reinstatement is granted or not.
76 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION
CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS/MANAGERS AND HONORARY MEMBERS
- CERTIFIED OPERATORS -
Cert. No. Name Affiliation or Location 12 Thomas J. Henderson Atmospherics Incorporated, CA 19 Don A. Griffith North American Weather Consultants, UT 22 Conrad G. Keyes NMSU Emeritus Professor and Dept. Head, NM 37 Albert Schnell AIRAO Enterprises, CO 47 David L. Newsom Atmospherics Inc., CA 50 Mark E. Solak North American Weather Consultants, UT 51 Danny A. Risch North American Weather Consultants, UT 57 Ray Pat Jones Big Springs, TX 59 Patrick H. Sweeney Weather Modification Inc., ND 62 Hans Peter Ahlness Weather Modification Inc., ND 63 Mark S. Rochin Ventura, CA 65 Mark D. Schneider Weather Modification Inc., ND 66 Aaron A. Gilstad Weather Modification Inc., ND 68 David A. Beer Western Kansas Groundwater District No. 1, KA 69 Fred M. Remer Fargo, ND 71 Thomas P. DeFelice Raytheon, ITSS, NPOESS 72 Chad Allen Hahn La Moille, IL
- CERTIFIED MANAGERS -
Cert. No. Name Affiliation or Location 6 Thomas J. Henderson Atmospherics Incorporated, CA 8 Don A. Griffith North American Weather Consultants, UT 9 Edward E. Hindman City College, New York City, NY 10 Mark E. Solak North American Weather Consultants, UT 11 James A. Heimbach, Jr. University of North Carolina, NC 12 Bruce A. Boe North Dakota Atmospheric Resource Board, ND 13 Terry W. Krauss Weather Modification Incorporated, Alberta, Canada 14 Darin W. Langerud North Dakota Atmospheric Resource Board, ND
- HONORARY MEMBERS -
Marion N. Bruce (deceased) South Dakota Weather Control Comm., McIntosh, SD Stuart A. Cundiff (deceased) California Electric Power Company, San Bernadino, CA Charles J. Dommes (deceased) Los Angeles Dept. of Water & Power, Los Angeles, CA William A. Lang Southern California Edison Company, Los Angeles, CA Vincent J. Schaefer (deceased) State University of New York, Albany, NY Robert D. Elliott (deceased) Montecito, CA Thomas J. Henderson Atmospherics Incorporated, Fresno, CA Wilbur E. Brewer Bowman, ND Keith J. Brown Port Ludlow, WA Bernard Vonnegut (deceased) Albany, NY April 2003 OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES 77
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION
- WMA EXECUTIVE BOARD AND COMMITTEES - (Year ending 2003 annual Meeting) ({} = Membership pending)
- OFFICERS - - TRUSTEES- President: Thomas P. DeFelice Government: Darin Langerud (2001-2004) Vice President: Rick Stone Private Sector: Mark Solak (2000-2003) Secretary: Byron Marler University: Arlen Huggins (2002-2005) Exec. Sec./Treas.: Hilda Duckering
AWARDS COMMITTEE: CERTIFICATION COMMITTEE: Joe Warburton (Chair) Jim Heimbach, Jr. (Chair) Vidal Salazar Terry Krauss Aaron Gilstad Don Griffith
MEMBERSHIP COMMITTEE: NOMINATING COMMITTEE: James Sweeney (Chair) Maury Roos (Chair) Tommy Shearrer David Yorty Aaron Gilstad Vidal Salazar Dave Yorty Randy Jenson
JOURNAL: STANDARDS AND ETHICS COMMITTEE: Editor-in-Chief – Steve Chai George Bomar (Chair) Mark Solak Editorial Board – Paul L. Smith (1999-2003) Terry Krauss (2002-2004) William Woodley (2000-2005) Jean Dessens (2002-2006)
PUBLIC AND PROFESSIONAL INFORMATION LEGISLATIVE AFFAIRS COMMITTEE: COMMITTEE: The trustees represent the interests of their respective groups; the Bruce Boe (Chair) legislative affairs committee represents the interests of the Aaron Gilstad Vidal Salazar association in a manner that best fulfills the WMA purposes under ARTICLE III of the WMA Articles of Incorporation. Dave Yorty Conrad Keyes, Jr. John N. Leedom (Chair) Roelof Bruintjes George Bomar Tom Henderson George Bomar Don Griffith Bill Woodley Dale Bates Tom Henderson Conrad Keyes, Jr. Jim Gunkelman Joe Warburton Darin Langerud Pat Sweeney Roger Reinking Joe Golden Joseph Warburton Bill Woodley Arnett Dennis Mike Mathis/Designee Associate members- Mr. Earl Nye
WORKSHOP STEERING COMMITTEE: Bruce Boe {Chair Public & Professional Information Committee} [CHAIR] Jim Heimbach {Chair Certification Committee} Conrad Keyes, Jr. {EWRI designee} George Bomar {AWM SC Chair/EWRI designee} Joe Warburton {Public & Professional Information Committee Member who regularly teaches}
(Committee members pick a chair)
WMA WEBMASTER: Bruce Boe (The WMA webmaster and the WORKSHOP STEERING COMMITTEE are housed within the Public and Professional Information Committee)
78 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION AWARDS
- THE SCHAEFER AWARD - The Schaefer Award is the most coveted award presented by the Weather Modification Association. The recipient is chosen by the Executive Committee and Awards Committee during Annual Meetings with candidate suggestions by committee members and from the general membership. It is not mandatory the award be given each year. The honored recipient receives a plaque which is inscribed with the following: "FOR SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DISCOVERIES THAT HAVE CONSTITUTED A MAJOR CONTRIBUTION TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF WEATHER MODIFICATION"
RECIPIENTS: Vincent J. Schaefer (deceased) 1976 Los Angeles, California Bernard Vonnegut (deceased) 1977 Salt Lake City, Utah Robert D. Elliott 1978 Tucson, Arizona Joanne Simpson 1979 Reno, Nevada William G. Finnegan 1980 Santa Barbara, California Abraham Gagin 1982 Fresno, California Joseph A. Warburton 1985 Monterey, California Roscoe R. Braham, Jr. 1987 Albuquerque, New Mexico Lewis O. Grant 1991 Ontario, California
- THE THUNDERBIRD AWARD - The Thunderbird Award is a sacred and honored presentation which recognizes fundamental and continuing contributions to the art and science of weather modification. The recipient is chosen by the Awards Committee, composed of three previous recipients of the Thunderbird Award. The award is presented each year at the Annual Meeting. The honored individual receives a beaded neck piece and replica of a historic North Plains Indian Medicine Bundle reputed, as recounted by the late Marion N. Bruce, to confer great rainmaking powers on the bearer. The recipients of the Medicine Bundle must add a sacred object of his own choice and pass this bundle to the next recipient.
RECIPIENTS: Robert D. Elliott 1973 Austin, Texas Pierre St. Amand 1974 Huntington Beach, California E. C. (Taffy) Bowen 1975 Santa Barbara, California Bill Lang 1976 Los Angeles, California Thomas J. Henderson 1977 Salt Lake City, Utah Ray Jay Davis 1978 Tucson, Arizona Archie M. Kahan 1979 Reno, Nevada Conrad G. Keyes, Jr. 1980 Santa Barbara, California Paul C. Summers 1981 Ft. Collins, Colorado Emilio Perez-Siliceo 1982 Fresno, California Arnett S. Dennis 1983 Champaign, Illinois Merlin C. Williams 1984 Bismarck, North Dakota Keith J. Brown 1985 Monterey, California Stanley A. Changnon 1986 Arlington, Virginia Arnold Court 1987 Albuquerque, New Mexico John W. James 1988 Costa Mesa, California Arlin Super 1989 Park City, Utah Wallace E. Howell 1990 Sparks, Nevada Harold D. Orville 1991 Ontario, California William L. Woodley 1992 Denver, Colorado Don A. Griffith 1993 Scottsdale, Arizona Paul L. Smith 1995 Durango, Colorado Robert Czys 1996 Monterey, California James R. Miller 1997 Las Vegas, Nevada Bruce A. Boe 1998 Park City, Utah Roger F. Reinking 1999 Banff, Alberta, Canada William G. Finnegan 1999 Banff, Alberta, Canada George W. Bomar 2000 Lubbock, Texas Daniel Rosenfeld 2001 Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Joseph A. Warburton 2002 Reno, Nevada April 2003 AWARDS 79
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION AWARDS (cont'd.)
- WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL AWARD -
Commemorative medallions presented to the WMA at the 1985 meeting in France, and now permanently displayed in a lucite box, serve as the centerpiece for this rotating International Award. It is presented to a special individual or group who has performed outstanding services in the area of cooperative efforts toward any aspect of weather modification at the international level. The recipient is chosen by the Executive Committee from candidates suggested at their annual meeting. It is not mandatory the award be given each year.
RECIPIENTS: John W. James 1986 Arlington, Virginia Roger Serpolay 1986 Arlington, Virginia John Dessens 1987 Albuquerque, New Mexico Harold Orville 2000 Lubbock, Texas
- THE BLACK CROW AWARD -
The Black Crow Award is presented to those individuals who for one reason or another have found themselves plagued with an extraordinary number of adversities or mishaps. Of course, the true cause of these adversities can frequently be traced directly to the recipients themselves. The "Crow" is presented at each Annual Meeting in partial recompense for those misfortunes suffered during the previous year. The recipient is chosen from candidates suggested to the Awards Committee.
RECIPIENTS: Hoyt Hart 1973 Austin, Texas Keith J. Brown 1974 Huntington Beach, California Thomas J. Henderson 1975 Santa Barbara, California Stanley A. Changnon 1976 Los Angeles, California Conrad G. Keyes, Jr. 1977 Salt Lake City, Utah Ray Jay Davis 1978 Tucson, Arizona William Carley 1979 Reno, Nevada Paul Mielke 1980 Santa Barbara, California Larry Davis 1981 Ft. Collins, Colorado Merlin Williams 1982 Fresno, California William G. Finnegan 1983 Champaign, Illinois R. Lynn Rose 1984 Bismarck, North Dakota Ralph Papania 1985 Monterey, California Wilbur E. Brewer 1986 Arlington, Virginia Barbara Welles 1987 Albuquerque, New Mexico Larry W. Rowe 1988 Costa Mesa, California Robert D. Elliott 1989 Park City, Utah Maurice Roos 1990 Sparks, Nevada John C. Lease 1991 Ontario, California Joseph H. Golden 1992 Denver, Colorado Keith J. Brown 1993 Scottsdale, Arizona Don A. Griffith 1994 San Antonio, Texas Mark E. Solak 1994 Salt Lake City, Utah Arlin B. Super 1995 Durango, Colorado Dennis W. Sundie 1996 Monterey, California Bruce A. Boe 1997 Las Vegas, Nevada George W. Bomar 1998 Park City, Utah No award given 1999 Banff, Alberta, Canada Rick Stone 2000 Lubbock, Texas Roger Tilbury 2001 Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Thomas P. DeFelice 2002 Reno, Nevada 80 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION AWARDS (cont'd.)
- NEW AWARDS –
WEATHER MODIFICATION FIELD METEOROLOGIST DISTINGUISHED SERVICE AWARD
This Distinguished Service Award is presented to exemplary weather modification field meteorologists who have provided outstanding services in the conduct of weather modification operations and/or research. The award recognizes their dedication, skills and professionalism which contribute significantly to the success of field programs, and reflects well on the profession and the WMA. Recipients are chosen by the Awards Committee from nominations directed to the Committee. It is not mandatory that this award be presented each year.
WEATHER MODIFICATION PILOT/TECHNICIAN DISTINGUISHED SERVICE AWARD
This Distinguished Service Award is presented to exemplary weather modification pilots or technicians who have provided outstanding services in the conduct of weather modification operations and/or research. The award recognizes their dedication, skills and professionalism which contribute significantly to the success of field programs, and reflects well on the profession and the WMA. Recipients are chosen by the Awards Committee from nominations directed to the Committee. It is not mandatory that this award be presented each year.
The Actual Awards
Each recipient would receive a complimentary one-year membership in the WMA, plus a framed certificate.
Nominees
It is envisioned that individuals who have provided service of consistently high quality would be good candidates for these awards. Candidates could be individuals who have retired from active participation in field programs, as well as those who are currently active.
The Nomination Process
Written nominations for these awards are submitted to the Awards Committee for consideration. Each nomination should include sufficient information regarding the nominee’s type and duration of service, plus statements pertaining to their dedication, skills and professionalism, to allow assessment and comparison with others by the Committee.
Schedule
Nominations would be solicited for the first presentation of these awards at the 2003 Annual Meeting. Since recipients of these awards could include exemplary retired or inactive individuals, two awards in each category (meteorologist and pilot/technician) could be presented at the 2003 and 2004 Annual Meetings, providing somewhat of a “catch up” option. Beginning with the 2005 Annual Meeting, one award in each category would be possible.
2002 WMA Annual Meeting Reno, Nevada
Kay Bates, Bill Finnegan Joe Warburton, Tom DeFelice
Sung-Nam Oh, Bruce Boe Winnefred & Joe Warburton, Lorie & Terry Krauss
Precipitation Enhancement Workshop attendees
Raffle winner Maurice Roos 82 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS
Mr. Dennis Afseth Daniel W. Breed Dr. R. M. Cunningham (ret) Weather Modification Inc. NCAR 11 Rockwood Lane 3802 - 20th St. North P O Box 3000 Lincoln, MA 01773-1901 Fargo, ND 58102 Boulder, CO 80307-3000 e-m: [email protected] Ph: 701-235-5500/fax: 701-235-9717 Ph: 303-497-8933/fax: 303-497-8401 E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] Dr. Robert R. Czys 2107 Zuppke Dr. Mr. Hans P. Ahlness (C0) Mr. Wilbur Brewer (HM/Ret) Urbana, IL 61801 Weather Modification Inc. P.O. 135 Ph: 217-355-8405 (Off) 3802 - 20th St. North Bowman, ND 58623-0135 217-337-0905 (Res) Fargo, ND 58102 E-m: [email protected] Ph: 701-235-5500/fax: 701-235-9717 Mr. Keith J. Brown (CM/HM/Ret) E-m: [email protected] 343 Camber Lane Dr. Thomas P. DeFelice (CO) Port Ludlow, WA 98365 6769 Old Waterloo Rd., #512 Mr. Dale L. Bates Ph: 360-437-2176 Elkridge, MD 21075 2013 Augusta Dr. E-m: [email protected] Ph: 301-794-5359 (w) San Angelo, TX 76904 /fax: 301-794-7106 Ph: 915-949-2229/fax: 915-223-5496 Dr. Roelof Bruintjes Ph: 410-799-9657 (h) E-m: [email protected] MMM Division, NCAR E-m: [email protected] P.O. Box 3000 Mr. Itzhak Bechar, Dir. Boulder, CO 80307 Mr. Julio Aragones DeInes Rainfall Stimulation Branch Ph: 303-497-8909/fax: 303-497-8401 Sprint Ingenieros P. O. Box 20 E-m: [email protected] Constancia 41 Ben Gurion Airport, Israel 28002 Madrid, E-m: [email protected] Dr. Elizabeth W. Carter SPAIN Firnspiegel Ph: 34 91 416 89 69 Mr. David A. Beer (CO) 8130 No. Lake Blvd. fax: 34-91 413 85 66 P O Box 332 P O Box 2720 E-m: [email protected] Meeteetse, WY 82433 Kings Beach, CA 96143 E-m: [email protected] Ph: 307-868-2498 E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] Dr. Paul J. DeMott Dr. Steven K. Chai Dept. of Atmospheric Science Dr. Jean-Francois Berthoumieu Div. of Atmospheric Sciences Colorado State Univ. ACMG-Aerodrome Agen-La Garenne Desert Research Institute Ft. Collins, CO 80523 47520 Le Passage 2215 Raggio Pkwy Ph: 790-491-8667 FRANCE Reno, NV 89512-1095 E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] Ph: 775-674-7070/fax: 775-674-7007 E-m: [email protected] Dr. Arnett S. Dennis Mr. Bruce A. Boe (CM) 3931 Ridgemoor Drive 15400 110th Ave. N.E. Dr. Charles F. Chappell (Ret) Rapid City, SD 57702 Menoken, ND 58558 3110 Heidelberg Dr. Ph: 605-341-4345 Ph: 701-673-3254 Boulder, CO 80305 E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] Dr. Jean P. Dessens Mr. George W. Bomar Mr. James P. Christie (Ret) C.R.A. Campistrous Sr. Meteorologist RR #2 65300 Lannemezan Texas Dept. of Licensing & Regulation Trochu Alberta TOM 2CO FRANCE P.O. Box 12157 CANADA E-m: [email protected] Austin, TX 78711 Ph: 512-936-4313/fax: 512-475-2871 Mr. Fred E. Clark Dr. Andrew Detwiler E-m: [email protected] 3860 E. Rialto Ave. Dept. of Atmospheric Sci. Fresno, CA 93726 South Dakota School of Mines Dr. Randolph D. Borys Ph: 559-222-0124/fax: 559-229-9569 Rapid City, SD 57701 3995 P. O. Box 770799 Em: [email protected] Ph: 605-394-2291/fax: 605-394-6061 Steamboat Springs, CO 80477-0799 E-m: [email protected] Ph: 970-879-8796/fax: 970-879-7819 Dr. William R. Cotton E-m: [email protected] Dept. of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Ft. Collins, CO 80523 E-m: [email protected] April 2003 MEMBERSHIP 83
Mr. Donald W. Duckering (Ret) Mr. Don Griffith (CO/CM) Dr. Edmond W. Holroyd, III 761 E. Wood Duck Cir. 8160 South Highland Dr., Ste. A2 8905 W. 63rd Ave. Fresno, CA 93720 Sandy, UT 84093 Arvada, CO 80004-3103 Ph: 559-434-3825 Ph: 801-942-9005/fax: 801-942-9007 Ph: 303-445-2276 E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] (w) E-m: [email protected] (h) Ms. Hilda S. Duckering Dr. Ronald C. Grosh 761 E. Wood Duck Cir. 2807 Century Harbor Rd. Mr. Einar L. Hovind (Ret) Fresno, CA 93720 Middleton, WI 53562 4152 Primavera Rd. Ph: 559-434-3486/fax: 559-434-3486 Santa Barbara, CA 93110 E-m: [email protected] Mr. Jim P. Gunkelman Ice Crystal Engineering Mr. Arlen W. Huggins Mr. Greg Eaton 15985 49th R. St. SE Desert Research Institute Eaton and Eaton Insurance Davenport, ND 58021 2215 Raggio Pkwy. P.O. Box 12906 Ph: 701-428-9882/fax: 701-428-9884 Reno, NV 89512-1095 Fresno, CA 93770 E-m: [email protected] Ph: 775-674-7140/fax: 775-674-7007 Home page: http://www.ICEflares.com E-m: [email protected] Dr. Oskar Essenwanger (Ret) 610 Mountain Gap Dr. Mr. Chad W. Hahn Mr. Richard C. Jackson Huntsville, AL 35803-1630 23516 Hwy. 89 NWSPR La Moille, IL 61330 737 Bishop St., Ste 2200 Dr. William G. Finnegan Ph: 815-638-2480 Honolulu, HI 96813-3213 1241 Wagon Wheel Circle e-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] Reno, NV 89503 Ph: 775-674-7034/fax:775-674-7016 Mr. Jack F. Hannaford (Ret) Mr. John W. James (Ret) E-m: [email protected] Sierra Hydrotech 3850 Skyline Blvd. P.O. Box 169 Reno, NV 89509-5660 Mr. Todd R. Flanagan Placerville, CA 95667 Ph: 702-826-7723/fax: 702-826-7723 110 Wyoming Blvd. Pleasanton, TX 78064 Mr. Curtis L. Hartzell Ms. Tara L. Jensen Ph: 830-281-3887/ Fax: 830-569-4238 P O Box 280413 NCAR/RAP Em: [email protected] Lakewood, CO 80228-0413 PO Box 3000 E-m: [email protected] Boulder, CO 80301 Mr. Walter E. Geiger, III Ph: 303-497-2843/fax: 303-497-8401 P O Box 162 Dr. James Heimbach, Jr. (CM) E-m: [email protected] Lakin, KS 67860 16 Indian Ledge Dr. E-m: [email protected] Springvale, ME 04083-3299 Mr. Randy Jenson Ph: 207-324-0626 Weather Modification Inc. Mr. Aaron A. Gilstad (CO) E-m: [email protected] 3802 - 20th St. North 82 Custer Dr. Fargo, ND 58102 Lincoln, ND 58504 Mr. T.J. Henderson (CO/CM/HM) Ph: 701-235-5500/fax: 701-235-9717 Ph: 701-328-4750/Fax: 701-328-4749 Atmospherics Incorporated E-m: [email protected] Ph: 701-530-9155 (h) 5652 East Dayton Ave. E-m: [email protected] Fresno, CA 93727 Mr. Richard S. Johnson Ph: 559-291-5575/fax: 559-291-5579 96 Burgan Dr. Joseph H. Golden E-m: [email protected] Clovis, CA 93612 U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA E-m: [email protected] Forecast Systems Lab, R/FSL Dr. Edward E. Hindman (CM) 325 Broadway, DSRC-2B133 Earth & Atmos Sci. Dept Mr. Ray P. Jones (CO) Boulder, CO 80303-3328 City College 4018 Vicky St. Off: 303-497-6821/Fax: 303-497-6821 Convent Ave. @ 138th Big Spring, TX 79720 E-m: [email protected] New York City, NY 10031 Res: 7337 Poston Way Ph: 212-650-6469 Mr. James A. Jung Boulder, CO 80301 E-m: [email protected] 6217 Bighorn Court Waldorf, MD 20603 Mr. Lewis O. Grant (ret) Mr. Larry Hjermstad 515 W. County Road 72 Western Weather Consultants, LLC Dr. Archie M. Kahan (Ret) Wellington, CO 80549-1911 P.O. Box 58 5225 S. Prince St., #209A Ph: 970-491-8675; 970-568-7654 Durango, CO 81302 Littleton, CO 80123 Fax: 970-568-7655 Ph: 970-247-8813/fax: 970-247-8813 Ph: 303-798-0706 E-m: [email protected]
84 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
Dr. Conrad G. Keyes, Jr. (CO/Ret) Mr. Lyle E. Lilie Mr. James R. Miller, Jr. P O Box 1499 P.O. Box 605 3505 Gallery Lane Mesilla Park, NM 88047 Mansfield Center, CT 06250 Rapid City, SD 57702-0527 Ph: 505-523-7233/fax: 505-647-1108 Ph: 860-450-1717/fax: 860-487-0143 Ph: 605-394-2291/fax: 605-394-6061 E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] Ph: 605-718-5700 (h) E-m: [email protected] Capt. John W. Kidd, USN, (Ret.) Dr. Roland List E-m: [email protected] 425 "C" Ave. Dept. of Physics, U. of Toronto Coronado, CA 92118-1822 Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A7, Mr. Manuel Mir CANADA Trans.Aereos Cuyo Soc. Anonima Prof. Young J. Kim E-m: [email protected] San Martin 535 Dept. Env. Science & Engr. Godoy Cruz (5501) K-JIST Dr. Alexis B. Long Mendoza, ARGENTINA 572 Sangam-dong, Kwangsan-Ku P O Box 41 Em: [email protected] Kwangju, 506-303, KOREA 144 Jasper Road Bentleigh, Vic 3204 Mr. Griffith M. Morgan, Jr. Dr. Nancy C. Knight (Ret.) AUSTRALIA 204 28th Street 1313 - 7th St. Boulder, CO 80303 Boulder, CO 80302 Mr. Byron L. Marler Ph: 303-499-2139 Pacific Gas & Electric Co. E-m: [email protected] Dr. Terry W. Krauss, PhD (CM) 3400 Crow Canyon Rd. Homepage: Chief Scientist San Ramon, CA 94583 http://www.osmer.fvg.it/~www Weather Modification, Inc. Ph: 925-866-5934/fax: 925-866-5674 /IT/DOCS/morgan/morgan.htm P. O. Box 27177 E-m: [email protected] Red Deer, AB T4N 6X8 Mr. Brian J. Morrison CANADA Mr. Stanley L. Marsh, Jr. Aeromet, Inc. Ph: 403-342-5685/fax: 403-342-5685 9399 Monarch Ct. P. O. Box 67 E-m: [email protected] Alta Loma, CA 91737 APO AP 96555 Ph: 805-355-3020/fax: 805-355-2468 Mr. Fredrick H. Krueger (Ret.) Dr. David A. Matthews E-m: [email protected] Rt. 1 Box 102 P O Box 1848 Madison, SD 57042 Silverthorne, CO 80498-1848 Mr. John P. Nash Ph: 303-445-2470//fax: 303-445-6351 545 Richmond St. Mr. William A. Lang (HM) E-m: [email protected] Amherstburg, Ont. N9V 3M6 2290 O Via Puerta CANADA Laguna Hills, CA 92653 Mr. Robert Mayer, Jr. Ph: 714-830-5433 P O Box 916 Mr. David L. Newsom (CO) Addison, TX 75001 5652 E. Dayton Ave. Mr. Darin Langerud E-m: [email protected] Fresno, CA 93727 306 W. Ave. C. Ph: 559-291-5575/fax: 559-291-5579 Bismarck, ND 58501 Mr. Donald M. McKay E-m: [email protected] Ph: (701) 328-2788/fax: 701-328-4749 140 Scanlon Green N.W. E-m: [email protected] Calgary, Alberta, T3L 1N3 Mr. Daryl O'Dowd CANADA C/o #1, 1141 – 5th Ave. N.W. Ms. Jane M. Lee E-m: [email protected] Calgary, AB Texas Dept of Agriculture CANADA T2N OR7 P O Box 12847 Mr. John T. McPartland (Ret) Ph: 403-277-4313 Austin. TX 78711 P.O. Box 3201 E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] Evergreen, CO 80439-3201 Ph: 303-674-5616 Dr. Harold D. Orville Mr. Robert Ray Lee Em: [email protected] 4772 Ridge Crest Court 2700 Cimarron Dr. Rapid City, SD 57702-9235 Norman, OK 73071 Mr. Brian McQuarrie Ph: 605-394-2291/fax: 605-394-6061 E-m: [email protected] Weather Modification Inc. E-m: [email protected] 3802 - 20th St. North Mr. John N. Leedom Fargo, ND 58102 Dr. John C. Pflaum 11012 Westmere Circle Ph: 701-235-5500/fax: 701-235-9717 5856 Park Lane Rd. Dallas, TX 75230 Em: [email protected] Longmont, CO 80503 Ph: 214-361-7755/fax: 214-373-3141 Em: [email protected]
April 2003 MEMBERSHIP 85
Mr. Michael R. Poellot Dr. Daniel Rosenfeld Mr. Albert H. Schnell (CO) Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences AIRAO Enterprises University of North Dakota Hebrew University of Jerusalem P.O. Box 293 P O Box 9006 Jerusalem, ISRAEL Pagosa Springs, CO 81147 Grand Forks, ND 58202-9006 E-m: [email protected] Ph: 970-264-5735 Ph: 701-777-2791 E-m: [email protected] Mr. Randolph C. Rudolph Mr. Timothy Sedlock (CO) 1031 9 Street SE 725 Woodspring Ct. Dr. Roger F. Reinking Calgary, Alberta T2G 3B1 Beavercreek, OH 45430 USDC NOAA/ERL/Eniv Tech Lab CANADA Ph: 937-426-2105 R/E/ET6 Ph: 403-777-1030 (w) E-m: [email protected] 325 Broadway Ph: 403-266-5968 (h) Boulder, CO 80303 E-m: [email protected] Mr. William S. Shaw Ph: 303-497-6167/fax: 303-497-6181 Mr. Arquimedes Ruiz 45 Albany Park Drive E-m: [email protected] 3801 Arden Rd. #73 Winnersh, Wokingham San Angelo, TX 76901 Berkshire RG41 5HZ Prof. Fred M. Remer (CO) Ph: 915-947-8680/fax: 915-947-8679 ENGLAND Univ. of North Dakota Dept. of Atmospheric Science Mr. Vidal Salazar Mr. Tommy D. Shearrer P O Box 9006 3450 Mitchell Ln. P O Box 764 Grand Forks, ND 58202 Boulder, CO 80301 Pleasanton, TX 78064 E-m: [email protected] Ph: 303-497-8380 Ph: 830-281-4593/fax: 830-281-4593 Fax: 303-497-4901 E-m: [email protected] Mr. Jim Renick E-m: [email protected] Dr. Bernard A. Silverman (Ret) 11 Warwick Dr. 7038 E. Peakview Place Red Deer, Alberta T4N 6L4 Dr. Jose Luis Sanchez Englewood, CO 80111 CANADA Lab. de Fisica de la Atmosfera Ph: 303-770-9271/ fax: 303-770-7204 Ph: 403-347-1545/fax: 403-340-1340 (Veter) University of Leon E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] 24071 Leon, SPAIN Ph: 34.87.291539/fax: 011 3487245199 Dr . Michael V. Sioutas Mr. Gary Riley, Sr. Met. E-m: [email protected] ELGA Meteorological Appl. Center Water Management Dept. Airport Macedonia Idaho Power Co. – CHQ-4 Dr. Wayne R. Sand 55103 Thessaloniki, P O Box 70 96 Antelope Rd. GREECE Boise, ID 83707 P O Box 799 Ph: +30-31-472953/fax: +30-31-472205 Ph: 208-388-5462 Lyons, CO 80540-0799 E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] Mr. Curtis D. Smith Mr. Dan Risch (CO) Dr. Roger Sandness P.O. Box 172 Meteorological Solutions Inc. Dept. Geography, Scobey Hall Lakin, KS 67860-0172 2257 South 1100 East, Suite 2F S.D.S.U. Ph: 316-355-6913 Salt Lake City, UT 84106 Brookings, SD 57007 E-m: [email protected] Ph: 801-474-3826/Fax: 801-474-0766 E-m: [email protected] Dr. Paul L. Smith E-m: [email protected] Dept. of Atmos. Sci., SDSM&T Home page: http://www.metsolution.com Mr. Jeffrey J. Schild 501 E. St. Joseph St. 207 State St. #206 Rapid City, SD 57701-3995 Mr. Mark Rochin (CO) Grand Forks, ND 58203 Ph: 605-394-2291/fax: 605-394-6061 3129 Breaker Drive Ph: 701-777-6139/Fax: 701-777-5032 E-m: [email protected] Ventura, CA 93003-1009 E-m: [email protected] Ph: 805-652-7048 Mr. Mark E. Solak (CO/CM) E-m: [email protected] Dr. Richard Schleusener (Ret) 8160 South Highland Dr., Ste. A2 315 So. Berry Pine Rd. Sandy, UT 84093 Mr. Maurice Roos Rapid City, SD 57702 Ph: 801-942-9005/fax: 801-942-9007 1305 Lynette Way E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] Sacramento, CA 95831 Ph: 916-574-2625/fax: 916-574-2767 Mr. Mark D. Schneider (CO) Dr. Kenneth Spengler (Ret) E-m: [email protected] 1818 S. Quebec Way, 1-4 American Meteorological Soc. Denver, CO 80231 45 Beacon St. E-m: [email protected] Boston, MA 02108
86 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
Mr. Reto Stamm Mr. Roman Tutor 708 Blossom Hill Rd., #206 Laboratorios Argenol S.L. Los Gatos, CA 95032 Autovio de Logrono, KM. 7,400 E-m: [email protected] Poligono Europa 2 50011 E-Zaragoza, Spain Mr. Richard H. Stone, III Ph: +34-976-33 62 66 10700 Bighorn Dr. fax: +34-976-53 36 59 Reno, NV 89506 E-m: [email protected] Ph: 775-224-5647 Ph: 775-972-9044 (h) Mr. John T. Walser (Ret) E-m: [email protected] 2172 Green Hill Rd. Sebastopol, CA 95472-9306 Mr. Jason M. Straub E-m: [email protected] 131 Deer Run #404 Cotulla, TX 78014 Dr. Joseph A. Warburton (Ret) 20 Moore Lane Dr. Arlin B. Super Reno, NV 89509 621 19th Ave. S.E. Ph: 775-825-7814 St. Cloud, MN 56304-1365 E-m: [email protected] Ph: 320-255-1646 E-m: [email protected] Dr. William L. Woodley Mr. James P. Sweeney, 11 White Fir Ct. Vice President Littleton, CO 80127 Weather Modification, Inc. Ph: 303-979-7946/fax: 303-973-3446 3802 20th St. No. E-m: [email protected] Fargo, ND 58102 Ph: 701-235-5500/fax: 701-235-9717 Mr. David P. Yorty E-m: [email protected] 8160 South Highland Dr., Ste. A2 Home page: http://www.weathermod.com Sandy, UT 84093 Ph: 801-942-9005/fax: 801-942-9007 Mr. Patrick H. Sweeney (CO) E-m: [email protected] President Weather Modification, Inc. Mr. Jene Young 3802 20th St. No. Grand Mesa Water Cons. Dist. Fargo, ND 58102 Box 129 Ph: 701-235-5500/fax: 701-235-9717 Cedaredge, CO 81413 E-m: [email protected] Ph: 970-835-3491/fax: 970-872-3588 Home page: http://www.weathermod.com
Mr. John R. Thompson (ret) 1405 Dover Rd. Montrose, CO 81401-5131 E-m: [email protected]
Mr. Roger S. Tilbury Weather Modification, Inc. 3802 20th St. No. Fargo, ND 58102 Ph: 701-235-5500/fax: 701-235-9717
Dr. Edward M. Tomlinson Applied Weather Assoc. P.O. Box 680 Monument, CO 80132 Ph: 719-488-9117/fax: 719-488-9118 E-m: [email protected]
April 2003 MEMBERSHIP 87
CORPORATE MEMBERS
Aero Systems, Inc. Ice Crystal Engineering, LLC Texas Weather Modification Assn. Attn: Sharon Carley Mr. Jim P. Gunkelman Attn: Mr. Dale L. Bates 2580 So. Main St. 15985 49th R. St. SE 2013 Augusta Dr. Erie, CO 80516 Davenport, ND 58021 San Angelo, TX 76904 Ph: 303-665-9321 Ph: 701-428-9882/fax: 701-428-9884 Ph: 915-947-8679/ fax: 915-947-8679 E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] e-m: [email protected]
Atmospherics Incorporated North American Weather Conslt. Utah Div. of Water Resources Attn: Mr. Thomas J. Henderson Attn: Mr. Don Griffith Attn: Mr. David B. Cole, P.E., Sr., Engr. 5652 East Dayton Ave. 8160 South Highland Dr., Ste. A2 1594 W. No. Temple, Ste. 310 Fresno, CA 93727 Sandy, UT 84093 Box 146201 Ph: 559-291-5575/fax: 559-291-5579 Ph: 801-942-9005/fax: 801-942-9007 Salt Lake City, UT 84114-6201 E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] Ph: 801-538-7269/Fax: 801-538-7279 Em: [email protected] Colorado River Municipal Water Dist North Dakota Atmospheric Res.Brd. Attn: Mr. Ray Pat Jones Attn: Mr. Darin Langerud, Director Vail Resorts P O Box 869 900 East Blvd. Ave. Attn: Mr. Brian McCartney, Big Spring, TX 79721-0869 Bismarck, ND 58505 V.P. Mtn. Ops., Dept. V31 Ph: 915-267-6341/fax: 915-267-3121 Ph: 701-328-2788/fax: 701-328-4749 P O Box 7 www:crmwd.org E-m: [email protected] Vail, CO 81658 Ph: 970-479-4601/fax: 970-479-4030 Deepwater Chemicals, Inc. North Plains Groundwater District E-m: [email protected] Attn: Pamela S. Clem, Acct. Mgr. Attn: Mr. Richard S. Bowers, Gen.Mgr. 1210 Airpark Rd. P. O. Box 795 Weather Modification Group Woodward, OK 73801 Dumas, TX 79029 Attn: Mr. Reg Seller Ph: 1-800-854-4064 Ph: 806-935-6401/Fax: 806-935-6633 Box 576 E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected] Okotoks, Alberta TOL 1TO CANADA Desert Research Institute Oklahoma Water Res. Board Ph: 938-5848 Attn: Mr. Arlen W. Huggins Attn: Mr. Michael E. Mathis E-m: [email protected] 2215 Raggio Pkwy 3800 North Classen Blvd. Reno, NV 89512-1095 Oklahoma City, OK 73118 Weather Modification, Inc. E-m: [email protected] Ph: 405-530-8800/fax: 405-530-8900 Attn: Mr. Patrick H. Sweeney E-m: [email protected] 3802 20th Street North Hellenic Agricultural Insurance Organ. Fargo, ND 58102 Attn: Mr. Costas Boufidis Sacramento Municipal Util.Dist. Ph: 701-235-5500/fax: 701-235-9717 ELGA Attn: Mr. Rodd C. Lindberg, Hydro. Home pg: www.weathermod.com “Makedonia” International Airport P.O. Box 15830 (B-355) E-m: [email protected] 55103, Thessaloniki GREECE Sacramento, CA 95852-1830 Ph: 2310-472953/ fax: 2310-472205 Ph: 530-647-5009 Western Kansas Grndwater Dist 1 Em: [email protected] Fax: 530-647-5036 Attn: Mr. Keith Lebbin E-m: [email protected] Box 604 High Plains Underground Water Scott City, KS 67871 Conservation Dist. No. 1 Southern Calif. Edison Co. E-m: [email protected] Attn: Mr. Scott Orr, Div. Dir. Attn: Mr. Brian M. McGurty 2930 Avenue Q. P.O. Box 800 Lubbock, TX 79405 Rosemead, CA 91770 Ph: 806-762-0181/fax: 806-762-1834 Ph: 626-302-8947/fax: 626-302-8964 ASSOCIATE MEMBERS Em: [email protected] Southern Ogallala Aquifer Rainfall TXU Corporation Hydro-Electric Corporation (SOAR) Program Mr. Erle Nye, Chairman Attn: Ms. Christina Nebel Attn: Mr. Duncan Axisa 1601 Bryan St., 41st Flr. GPO Box 355 D P.O. Box 130 Dallas, TX 75201 Hobart, Tasmania Plains, TX 79355 AUSTRALIA 7001 Ph: 806-456-2155 Ph: +61 (0) 3-6230 5141 fax: 806-456-5655 Fax: +61 (0) 3-6230 5802 E-m: [email protected] E-m: [email protected]
88 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
Now Available: All 37 Issues of THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Published by THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION, founded in 1951 to encourage experimentation and discussion on human intervention in the natural processes of the atmosphere with special emphasis on augmentation of rain and snow, and suppression of hail and fog.
The JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION, published since 1969, has documented major and minor develop- ments in this important field. The 34 issues to date include articles by most of the leading theoreticians, experiment- ers and commercial operators throughout the world. Published once a year during its first six years, the Journal appeared twice during 1975 and again in 1976. Volume 7, No. 1, included 19 papers on operational programs, public opinions, and the progress of several research projects. The issue was dedicated to Marion Nelson Bruce, a true American pioneer who was strongly influential in the development of modern cloud seeding technology in South Da- kota. Volume 7, No. 2, contains papers on hail suppression from the first WMA meeting outside the U.S., at Calgary, Alberta, in September 1975.
Volume 8, No. 1, contains nine papers on a wide variety of weather modification subjects including inadvertent modifi- cation, cloud seeding experiments, hail suppression, and nuclei. Volume 8, No. 2, was a special Silver Anniversary issue dedicated to Dr. Vincent J. Schaefer, the discoverer of the use of dry ice as an ice nucleating material in 1946 and the "father" of modern cloud seeding science and technology. Volume 9 contained 18 papers on a broad range of subjects from inadvertent weather modification to operational programs, social issues, and research programs. Volume 10 was distributed at the Spring Meeting in Tucson, Arizona, April 1978, and contains 9 papers on projects outside the U.S. and 11 papers on environmental aspects of silver iodide, a summary of U.S. programs in CY1976 and 1977, USBR Skywater information, and a few legal aspects of weather modification.
Volume 11 was distributed at the Spring Meeting in Reno, Nevada, April 1979. This was the first issue of JWM with sections for both reviewed and non-reviewed papers. The volume contains information on hail suppression, numeri- cal simulation, radar applications, economic aspects, and a listing of projects conducted in the U.S. during CY1978. Volume 12 was circulated at the Spring Meeting in Santa Barbara, California, April 24-25, 1980. A significant land- mark was the addition of a color cover. Five papers appeared in the reviewed section and 11 in the non-reviewed section. Volume 13 was available at the Spring Meeting in Ft. Collins, CO, 9-10 April 1981. Publication was large at 262 pages. There were 18 reviewed and 8 non-reviewed papers covering programs in the U.S. and seven other countries. Volume 14 contained 12 papers in the reviewed section; 7 dealt with projects in countries outside the U.S., China, Chile, and southeast Asia and were newcomers to the Journal. The new Certification Program became an official part of WMA.
Dr. Bruno Federer passed away in December 1982 and his accomplishments were noted in Vol. 15. This issue car- ried 14 reviewed papers from the U.S., France, Italy, and Yugoslavia. The decline of weather modification operations and research in the U.S. was noted along with the increase in worldwide activities. Volume 16 was circulated at the meeting in Bismarck, ND, July 1985. It carried 8 reviewed and 4 non-reviewed papers, plus all of the general informa- tion material on projects at national and international levels. The issue was dedicated to Mr. Olin H. Foehner. Vol- ume 17 noted the first time in the 35-year history of the WMA that a meeting was organized in any country beyond the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Special appreciation was extended to the hosts in France. Ten reviewed papers and 3 non-reviewed papers were published. Volume 18 carried 27 reviewed papers with several coming from the various groups in France following the 1985 WMA Meeting in Clermont-Ferrand and Toulouse. The new WMA International Award evolved from this meeting.
Volume 19 was distributed at the April 1987 Annual Meeting in Albuquerque, New Mexico. This issue included 17 reviewed papers covering such subjects as precipitation augmentation, hail suppression, program design, and nu- merical simulations. The international aspect was furthered by a paper from China. Volume 20 included 13 papers covering the subjects of liquid water, ice nucleation, crop production, hail suppression, results from operation pro- grams, and legal aspects. It was distributed at the annual meeting held at Costa Mesa in April 1988, and dedicated to Abe Gagin, a strong force in weather modification at the international level. Volume 21 contained 14 reviewed papers on a broad range of topics from operational programs to cloud models. A major topic at the annual meeting held at Park City, Utah, in May 1989, focused on Weather Modification in the 1990s, including future strategies for the Asso- ciation's Journal.
Volume 22 continued the tradition of a color cover and included 19 reviewed papers and 3 non-reviewed articles on a variety of scientific research programs and operational projects in the U.S. and other countries, plus a summary of cloud seeding activities in the U.S. as tabulated by the Dept. of Commerce. It was the largest issue since 1981 and was distributed in May 1990 at the Annual Meeting in Sparks, Nevada.
Volume 23 commemorated the 40th Anniversary of the WMA and the 23rd year of Journal publication, all 23 years under the editorship of Thomas J. Henderson. The volume contained 9 reviewed papers on various aspects of ap- plied weather modification. The cover and several photographic pages illustrated some of the individuals who played April 2003 BACK ISSUES 89 a strong role in the formative years of the Association. A eulogy was included for Dr. Patrick Squires, a pioneer in atmospheric science, who passed away on 15 November 1990.
Volume 24 contained 11 reviewed papers and 3 non-reviewed articles. The cover photos were from Utah and re- flected activities and scenes related to 3 papers discussing the Utah Federal/State cooperative research program sponsored by NOAA. Volume 25 contained 7 reviewed papers and 2 non-reviewed articles. Three papers were re- lated to the Illinois State Water Survey's 1989 exploratory cloud seeding experiment (one modeling and two analysis papers); two papers, to winter orographic situations; one paper presented an analysis of hail suppression cloud seed- ing effects on weather observations in Yugoslavia; and one paper reviewed some of the consequences of the 1972 Rapid City, SD flood. Copies of the WMO, AMS, and WMA statements regarding weather modification were repro- duced for the perusal of the membership. Cover photos were provided by Bruce Boe. A tribute to Wilbur Brewer's retirement was provided by Bruce Boe with a few "ancient" related photos furnished by Tom Henderson.
Volume 26 was dedicated to the memory of Vincent J. Schaefer (1906-1993). Mr. Thomas J. Henderson provided a nice photo-history for this purpose. Fifteen articles were included in Volume 26 (14 reviewed, 1 non-reviewed), and other topics made up the issue. A good representation from both the U.S. and other countries was included. The cover photo was provided by T. Henderson. Thanks to Ward for his input. Volume 27 contained 6 reviewed papers and 3 non-reviewed articles. Dr. Arlin Super and his colleagues were to be commended for contributing heavily to that issue of the Journal. The retirement of Dr. Ray Jay Davis was celebrated on the last pages (photos by Tom Henderson). A memory page was included for Lawrence "Bud" Youngren. Volume 28 contained 8 reviewed papers and 2 non-reviewed articles; models, observations, downwind effects, and remote sensing were among the topics presented.
Volume 29 was dedicated to the memory of Bernard Vonnegut (1914-1977). It contained 8 reviewed papers and 6 non-reviewed articles. Volume 30 contains 5 reviewed papers and 2 non-reviewed articles. The “In Remembrance” for Dr. Graeme Mather was prepared by P.L. Smith. Volume 31 contains 11 reviewed papers (one comment and reply to a previous paper), and one non-reviewed. The "In remembrance" for Clem Todd was prepared by Wally Howell. Also included are an activity report provided by Joe Golden, and an updated AMS Policy Statement on Weather Modi- fication.
Volume 32 contained 6 papers in the reviewed section and 4 in the non-reviewed section. It was dedicated to Wally Howell and Arnold Court, two well-known scientists involved in related weather modification research. Volume 33 con- tains 3 papers in the reviewed section and 3 in the non-reviewed section. Volume 33 was dedicated to Mr. Ray Jay Davis, the Weather Modification Association's "legal eagle". Volume 34 had 4 papers and a comment and reply in the reviewed section of the Journal and 9 non-reviewed contributions. Volume 35 is dedicated to the memory of Robert D. Elliott. It contains 2 reviewed papers and 4 articles and a comment and reply in the non-reviewed section.
Pages of the Journal are 8.5 x 11 inches (216 x280 mm). Covers are sturdy paper-board. Total pages in each issue are:
VOL. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7:1 7:2 8:1 8:2 9 10 YEAR 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975 1976 1976 1977 1978 PAGES 60 232 289 236 373 297 236 183 228 157 221 210
VOL. 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 YEAR 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 PAGES 225 116 262 109 103 116 104 180 163 182 158 230
VOL. 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 YEAR 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 PAGES 170 158 135 161 140 120 152 154 179 120 108 141
VOL. 35 YEAR 2003 PAGES 127
Any of the 37 issues of the Journal of Weather Modification or copies of the WMA brochure will be shipped, postage paid, upon receipt of check, money order, or official institutional purchase order, payable in U.S. currency, to WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION.
Address orders to: VICKI HALL, DESERT RESEARCH INSTITUTE, 2215 Raggio Parkway, Reno, NV 89512-1095.
ISBN 0739-1781 90 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ Pierre St. Amand, Lohr A. Burkhardt, - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - William C. Finnegan, John A. Donnan, WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION and Paul T. Jorgensen
VOLUME 1 PYROTECHNIC PRODUCTION OF NUCLEANTS Number 1 March 1969 FOR CLOUD MODIFICATION - PART II -- PYROTECHNIC COMPOUNDS AND DELIVERY TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE SYSTEMS FOR FREEZING NUCLEANTS ...... 33 Pierre St. Amand, Lohr A. Burkhardt, AFTER A QUARTER CENTURY ...... 1 William C. Finnegan, L. Wilson, Vincent J. Schaefer S. D. Elliott, and Paul T. Jorgensen
WEATHER MODIFICATION IN THE PYROTECHNIC PRODUCTION OF NUCLEANTS BUREAU OF RECLAMATION ...... 5 FOR CLOUD MODIFICATION - PART III -- Archie M. Kahan PROPELLANT COMPOSITIONS FOR GENERATION OF SILVER IODIDE...... 53 WARM FOG MODIFICATION...... 11 Ronald F. Vetter, W.G. Finnegan, Paul B. MacCready, Jr. L.A. Burkhart, Pierre St. Amand, H. Sampson and Martin H. Kaufman THE DEPENDENCE OF PRECIPITATION RATES UPON THE TIME POSITION PYROTECHNIC PRODUCTION OF NUCLEANTS WITHIN STORMS ...... 20 FOR CLOUD MODIFICATION - PART IV -- George. W. Reynolds COMPOSITIONAL EFFECTS ON ICE NUCLEI ACTIVITY...... 65 AN OPERATIONAL HAIL SUPPRESSION L. A. Burkhart, W. G. Finnegan, F. Kirk PROGRAM IN KENYA, AFRICA...... 30 Odencrantz, and Pierre St. Amand Thomas J. Henderson PYROTECHNIC PRODUCTION OF NUCLEANTS PROFESSIONAL STANDARDS IN WEATHER FOR CLOUD MODIFICATION - PART VI -- CASE MODIFICATION ...... 33 STUDY OF APPARENT STIMULATION OF Merlin C. Williams CONVECTION BY SEEDING A THUNDERSTORM WITH “ALECTO” PYROTECHNIC DEVICES...... 98 ELEMENTS OF A MODEL LAW...... 41 Richard A. Schleusener, Pierre Richard A. Schleusener, Robert D. Elliott, St. Amand, Wayne Sand, and and Thais U. Johnson John A. Donnan
A WEATHER MODIFICATION COMMISSION ...... 44 SOME OBSERVATIONS OF SILVER IODIDE Merlin C. Williams PLUMES WITHIN THE ELK MOUNTAIN WATER RESOURCE LABORATORY...... 122 WMA CONSTITUTION AND BY-LAWS...... 49 August H. Auer, D. L. Veal, and John D. Marwitz QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR CERTIFICATION...... 53 TECHNIQUE FOR DETECTING ICE NUCLEI IN THE ATMOSPHERE...... 132 WMA OFFICERS, COMMITTEES AND A. J. Alkezweeny CERTIFIED MEMBERS ...... 56 SIERRA CUMULUS...... 136 WMA BACKGROUND AND PAST OFFICERS...... 57 M. C. Williams and D. E. Lehrman
WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY ...... 58 THE THEORY AND PRACTICE OF HAIL SUPPRESSION...... 147 A. S. Dennis ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦
- THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - NUCLEATION EFFICIENCIES OF AgI-NH AND AgI- WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION 4 NaI ACETONE SOLUTIONS AND PYROTECHNIC GENERATORS AS A FUNCTION OF LWC AND VOLUME 2 GENERATOR FLAME TEMPERATURE, A Number 1 May 1970 PRELIMINARY REPORT ...... 155 John A. Donnan, Donald N. Blair, TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE William G. Finnegan, and Pierre St. Amand A CALL FOR ACTION...... 1 Vincent J. Schaefer OPERATIONAL FORECASTING FOR PROJECT SIERRA CUMULUS...... 165 WHAT IS OVERSEEDING?...... 14 Donald E. Lehrman Robert D. Elliott TRACE SILVER ANALYSIS IN WATERS PYROTECHNIC PRODUCTION OF NUCLEANTS COMBINING SOLVENT EXTRACTION WITH THE FOR CLOUD MODIFICATION - PART I -- GENERAL ATOMIC ABSORPTION MICROSAMPLING BOAT..... 169 PRINCIPLES...... 25 Howard A. Salman
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 91
A NEW METHOD OF AERIAL Dean A. Wright STEREOPHOTOGRAMMETRY ...... 182 William J. King and Dale C. Hall NOZZLES FOR SPRAYING WARM FOGS ...... 134 John Carroz DECISION MAKING IN A PRECIPITATION MANAGEMENT PROGRAM...... 199 MEANS FOR ESTIMATING AERIAL HAIL-DAY Steven H. Cohen FREQUENCIES...... 154 S. A. Changnon, Jr. MEASUREMENT OF ATTITUDES TOWARDS WEATHER MODIFICATION ...... 207 THE DESIGN AND EVALUATION OF THE Darlene A. Kreuger NATIONAL HAIL RESEARCH EXPERIMENT IN NORTHEAST COLORADO ...... 160 ELEMENTS OF A MODEL LAW FOR REGULATION P. T. Schickendanz and OF WEATHER MODIFICATION S. A. Changnon, Jr. ACTIVITIES...... 221 APPLICATION OF NUMERICAL MODELS TO WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION CUMULUS CLOUD MODIFICATION ...... 177 OFFICERS, COMMITTEES, HONORARY, A. L. Weinstein CORPORATE AND ASSOCIATE MEMBERS ...... 225 A UNIFIED THEORY FOR AEROSOL WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION PHENOMENOLOGY ...... 186 MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY...... 227 Ira Kohlberg
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ OBSERVATION OF SIERRA NEVADA SNOW - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - STORMS WITH AN MTI-EQUIPPED RADAR...... 197 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION Robert L. Peace, Jr.
VOLUME 3 SUMMER RUNOFF INCREASES BY WEATHER Number 1 April 1971 MODIFICATION...... 213 Donald E. Lehrman TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE ANALYSIS OF FOUR WINTER STORMS ...... 223 PYROTECHNIC PRODUCTION OF NUCLEANTS D. A. Griffith, G. L. Smith, D. E. Lehrman, FOR CLOUD MODIFICATION - PART VII, and J. R. Vowell NUCLEATION PROCESSES...... 1 Pierre St. Amand, W. G. Finnegan, and EVIDENCE OF MICROSTABILITY IN COLD F. K. Odencrantz OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS ...... 231 Charles F. Chappell UNDERSTANDING OF THE USE OF SIMPLE AND COMPLEX ICE NUCLEI GENERATED FROM A COMPUTERIZED METHOD OF TELEMETERED PYROTECHNICS AND ACETONE BURNERS ...... 31 PRECIPITATION DATA QUALITY CONTROL...... 235 Pierre St. Amand, W. G. Finnegan, and G. W. Reynolds and R. H. Campbell L. Burkhardt WEATHER MODIFICATION - A FIRE CONTROL EFFECTS OF CONTACT NUCLEATION ON CLOUD TOOL ...... 244 SEEDING METHODS ...... 49 James D. Harpster and William J. Douglas Pierre St. Amand, W. G. Finnegan, and L. A. Mathews NON-SEEDABILITY OF HEXADECANOL-COATED MISTS ...... 250 COUNTING OF GLACIOGENIC NUCLEI ...... 93 Thomas V. Palmer Pierre St. Amand, W. G. Finnegan, and L. A. Mathews A HISTORY OF CLOUD SEEDING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ...... 253 EFFECTS OF SOLUBILITY OF AgI NUCLEATION Keith J. Brown EFFECTIVENESS...... 106 Pierre St. Amand, L. Mathews, D. Reed, NEEDED -- A BETTER ENERGY SINK 264 L. Burkhart, and W. Finnegan Vincent J. Schaefer
ON THE ACTIVATION TEMPERATURE OF AgI ADVERTISEMENTS...... 271 PARTICLES IN CLOUD ...... 111 A. J. Alkezweeny CONSTITUTION AND BYLAWS OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... 275 THE MODIFICATION OF RAIN PARAMETERS BY PYROTECHNIC CLOUD BASE SEEDING...... 115 QUALIFICATION AND PROCEDURES FOR J. L. Sutherland, L. W. Cooper, and CERTIFICATION BY THE WEATHER D. R. Booker MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... 279
A WIND TUNNEL/CLOUD CHAMBER FACILITY FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - CLOUD MODIFICATION RESEARCH...... 123 OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES ...... 282 John A. Donnan, D. N. Blair, and
92 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUD SEEDING MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY...... 283 NUCLEI FROM GROUND-BASED GENERATORS .... 127 M. Aroyo and A. Gagin WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - INDIVIDUAL MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY...... 283 TROPICAL HURRICANES, RAIN STIMULATION AND THEIR EFFECT IN THE RUNOFF OF THE BACKGROUND OF WEATHER MODIFICATION RIVERS IN THE HYDROLOGIC WATERSHED OF ASSOCIATION...... 287 NECAXA, PUE...... 143 Emilio Perez Siliceo INSTRUCTIONS - ADVERTISEMENTS AND MEMBERSHIP DUES ...... 289 SEEDING EFFECTS IN CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ...... 149 ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ Alexander Koscielski and A. S. Dennis - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION SOUTH DAKOTA SEEDING EVALUATION 1965-1971...... 172 VOLUME 4 E. I. Boyd Number 1 April 1972 AN EXPERIMENT IN COMPUTER-ASSISTED TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE DECISION MAKING FOR WEATHER 195 MODIFICATION...... AN OPERATIONAL CLOUD SEEDING PROJECT IN William A. Peterman RHODESIA ...... 1 J. E. Stevens and J. M. Gosnell SOME RELATIONSHIPS TO WEATHER MODIFICATION OF FINE PARTICLES IN THE WEATHER MODIFICATION IN TEXAS...... 6 ATMOSPHERE...... 204 John T. Carr, Jr. Vincent J. Schaefer
HOW TO SEED CUMULUS CLOUDS...... 17 ADVERTISEMENTS...... 211 Pierre St. Amand and Shelden D. Elliott, Jr. CONSTITUTION AND BYLAWS OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... 217 DELAYED NUCLEATION EXPERIMENTS IN AN ISOTHERMAL CLOUD CHAMBER ...... 50 A RESOLUTION ADOPTED AT THE ANNUAL W. S. McEwan and C. A. Hering WEATHER MODIFICATION MEETING IN FRESNO, CALIFORNIA ...... 220 THE USE OF HIGHLY-CHARGED HYGROSCOPIC DROPS FOR FOG DISPERSAL...... 54 QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR John W. Carroz, Pierre St. Amand, and CERTIFICATION BY THE WEATHER Donald R. Cruise MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... 223
FOG MODIFICATION BY MEANS OF ELECTRIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - DROPLETS...... 70 OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES ...... 226 M. H. Smith WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - A COMPUTER PROGRAM FOR FOG PREDICTION MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY ...... 227 AT PORTLAND, OREGON ...... 85 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - Harold E. Cronin INDIVIDUAL MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY ...... 229
RESULTS FROM COMPARISONS BETWEEN THE BACKGROUND OF WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... 235 FIELD APPLICATIONS OF AgI AND AgI-NH4I SOLUTIONS IN AIRBORNE GENERATORS ON A HAIL SUPPRESSION PROGRAM IN KENYA...... 94 INSTRUCTIONS - ADVERTISEMENTS AND Thomas J. Henderson MEMBERSHIP DUES...... 236
RESULTS FROM THE USE OF LW-83 ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ PYROTECHNIC SEEDING DEVICES ON - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - OPERATIONAL OROGRAPHIC CUMULUS WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION PROGRAMS IN AFRICA AND CALIFORNIA ...... 102 Thomas J. Henderson VOLUME 5 Number 1 June 1973 THE AIRBORNE SEEDING OF SIX TORNADOES...... 109 Thomas J. Henderson and TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE William J. Carley A CHALLENGE TO THE WEATHER ENGINEERS ..... 1 MODIFICATION OF THE HYDRODYNAMIC MASS Vincent J. Schaefer BY ENTRAINMENT...... 118 Ira Kohlberg THE SOUTH DAKOTA WEATHER MODIFICATION PROGRAM ...... 7 Merlin C. Williams
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 93
OBSERVED UPDRAFTS AND HAIL INSIDE A RAW AND IODINE TREATED AUTOMOBILE THUNDERSTORM...... 24 EXHAUST AS A SOURCE OF ICE NUCLEI ...... 238 W. R. Sand, R. A. Schleusener, Lewis O. Grant and Myron L. Corrin and D. J. Musil THE STIMULATION OF RAIN IN YUGOSLAVIA ...... 249 HAIL SENSING AND SMALL-SCALE VARIABILITY Drazen Poje OF WINDBLOWN HAIL ...... 30 Stanley A. Changnon, Jr. PHENOMENA OF PERSISTENCE OF ARTIFICIAL ICE-NUCLEI CONCENTRATION ...... 254 PROJECT HAILSTOP: A REVIEW OF Paolo Petti ACCOMPLISHMENTS TO DATE ...... 43 Peter W. Summers THE RELATIONSHIP OF SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS AND ATTITUDES TOWARDS TENTATIVE RESULTS OF FOUR YEARS OF WEATHER MODIFICATION: THE SOUTH DAKOTA RANDOMIZED SEEDING IN THE JEMEZ STUDY, 1972...... 261 MOUNTAINS...... 56 Barbara C. Farhar C. G. Keys, Jr., F. D. Stover, R. D. Wilkins, and M. Lentner FACTORS RELATED TO ATTITUDES TOWARDS WEATHER MODIFICATION PROGRAMS...... 277 SOME IMPRESSIONS OF WEATHER Orville Lanham and Jerome Rosonka MODIFICATION DEVELOPMENTS OVERSEAS...... 84 Jeremy M. Gosnell APPLYING ULTRA LONG-RANGE WEATHER PREDICTION AND WEATHER MODIFICATION TO SEEDING SINGLE CUMULUS CLOUDS IN ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT ...... 296 RHODESIA WITH SILVER IODIDE: 1968-69...... 88 Irving P. Krick D. L. McNaughton REPORT ON RAPID CITY FLOOD OF AN AREA CLOUD SEEDING EXPERIMENT JUNE 9, 1972 ...... 318 IN THE NORTH OF RHODESIA...... 103 Pierre St. Amand, Ray J. Davis, and D.L. McNaughton Robert D. Elliott
RESULTS FROM A 7-YEAR CONTINUOUS HOW TO TREAT A PAINFUL PROBLEM OR SEEDING WITH A GROUND GENERATOR ON THE CLOUDSEEDING ANYONE?...... 347 FRENCH ATLANTIC COAST...... 116 Anonymous Jean Dessens and Jean-Pierre Lacaux ADVERTISEMENTS...... 349 FOG CLEARING WITH HELICOPTER DOWNWASH ...... 126 CONSTITUTION AND BYLAWS OF THE WEATHER David H. Dickson and MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... 353 Walter S. Nordquist, Jr. QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR RESULTS OF THE BOWMAN-SLOPE HAIL CERTIFICATION BY THE WEATHER SUPPRESSION PROGRAM...... 133 MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... 357 A. F. Butchbaker WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - THE USE OF HIGHLY-CHARGED HYGROSCOPIC OFFICERS...... 360 DROPS FOR FOG DISPERSAL...... 146 John W. Carroz, Pierre St. Amand, and WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - Donald R. Cruise CERTIFIED AND HONORARY MEMBERS ...... 361
MINICOMPUTER PROGRAM TO PREDICT FOG WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - BREAK-UP TIMES...... 161 CORPORATE MEMBERS...... 362 Harold E. Cronin WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - AIRBORNE JET SEEDER SOLUTION BURNER...... 166 ASSOCIATE CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... 363 John Carroz WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - PARTICLE SIZE AND NUCLEI ACTIVITY INDIVIDUAL MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY ...... 364 CHARACTERISTICS OF A LOW OUTPUT AgI GENERATOR...... 178 BACKGROUND OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION Briant L. Davis, Donald N. Blair, L. Ronald ASSOCIATION ...... 372 Johnson, and Pierre St. Amand INSTRUCTIONS - ADVERTISEMENTS AND A BENCHMARK NETWORK FOR ICE NUCLEUS MEMBERSHIP DUES...... 373 COUNTS ...... 217 Paul A. Alice
FIELD COMPARISONS OF ICE NUCLEUS MEASUREMENTS BY THREE METHODS...... 222 C. A. Grainger and A. B. Super
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♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ PRACTICAL USE OF TIME-LAPSE PICTURES OF - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - RADAR ECHOES TO ESTIMATE AREAS WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION AFFECTED BY SEEDED CLOUDS ...... 196 Ray E. Telfer VOLUME 6 Number 1 April 1974 MODIFICATION OF SUBTROPICAL WINTER CUMULUS CLOUDS -- CLOUD SEEDING AND TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE CLOUD PHYSICS IN ISRAEL ...... 203 A. Gagin and J. Neumann WEATHER MODIFICATION OUTLOOK - 1995 PROJECTION ...... 1 THE ROLE OF SOLID PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS James E. Jiusto IN NATURAL AND ARTIFICIAL PRODUCTION OF RAIN IN ISRAEL...... 216 TRENDS IN WEATHER MODIFICATION A. Gagin and I. Steinhorn LEGISLATION...... 17 Ray Jay Davis CUMULUS CONGESTUS GROWTH DOWNWIND OF ST. LOUIS MISSOURI: CASE STUDY...... 229 PRESENT-DAY STATE OF THE THEORETICAL August H. Auer, Jr. INVESTIGATIONS ON THE HETEROGENEOUS ICE NUCLEATION ...... 28 FLAME TEMPERATURE EFFECTS ON AgI NUCLEI L. Krastanov and G. Miloshev PRODUCED FROM ACETONE GENERATORS ...... 238 Donald N. Blair SNOWFALL ENHANCEMENT...... 48 Helmut K. Weickmann HAIL SUPPRESSION EFFECTS FROM SEEDING WITH SILVER IODIDE IN WESTERN NORTH ICE NUCLEI GENERATOR TECHNOLOGY ...... 68 DAKOTA...... 246 Norihiko Fukuta E. I. Boyd, J. R. Miller, Jr., and R. A. Schleusener IDENTIFICATION OF QUICK LIME AS ICE NUCLEANT...... 79 THE ANTI-HAIL CAMPAIGN IN ARGENTINA ...... 260 A. S. Ramachandra Murty and Daniel Gomez Bh. V. Ramana Murty A RANDOMIZED CLOUD SEEDING EXPERIMENT THE MECHANIZATION OF MULTIPLICATION IN THE DECCAN PLATEAU, INDIA -- PRELIMINARY PROCESS OF GLACIATION IN THE 87 RESULTS ...... 266 ATMOSPHERE ...... K. Krishna, R. K. Kapoor, A. S. Roger Cheng Ramachandra Murty, A. M. Selvam, K. K. Kanuga, L. T. Khemani, B. K. CLIMATOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF EXTRA- Bukherjee, S. K. Paul, R. Vijaya Kumar, AREA SEEDING EFFECTS...... 92 and Bh.K. Ramana Murty Paul T. Schickedanz THE EFFECT OF OZONE ON LEAD AND SILVER RHODESIAN NATIONAL DROUGHT RELIEF CLOUD IODIDE ...... 278 SEEDING OPERATION...... 109 Vincent J. Schaefer J. E. Stevens FIELD MIXING PROCEDURES FOR AgI-NH4- REPORT ON CLOUD SEEDING OPERATION -- ACETONE SOLUTIONS...... 286 KYLE AND BANGALA CATCHMENT AREA, R. L. Wheeler NOVEMBER 1972 - APRIL 1973 ...... 130 J. E. Stevens MONITORING OF CLOUD CONDENSATION NUCLEI AT THE ARCATA-EUREKA AIRPORT, 289 POTENTIAL VALUE OF SATELLITE CLOUD CALIFORNIA ...... PICTURES IN WEATHER MODIFICATION L. A. Mathews PROJECTS ...... 134 Kumud R. Biswas A REVIEW OF SURFACE HAIL SENSORS ...... 304 Neil J. Towery and Stanley A. REVIEW OF A MOLECULAR MODEL APPLIED TO Changnon, Jr. PRENUCLEATION WATER CLUSTERS ...... 161 P. L. M. Plummer and B. N. Hale WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITY REPORTS -- NOVEMBER 1, 1972 TO A UNIQUE PHYSICALLY RESPONSIVE METHOD DECEMBER 31, 1973 ...... 318 OF ENTRAINMENT FOR ONE-DIMENSIONAL Mason T. Charak and Mary T. DiGiulian CUMULUS MODELS ...... 171 David A. Matthews INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON WEATHER MODIFICATION -- OCTOBER 1-7, 1973 -- USE OF CONDENSED WATER-PRECIPITATION TASHKENT, USSR...... 343 RELATIONSHIPS IN ANALYZING EFFECTS OF H. Weickmann CLOUD SEEDING...... 182 Gerard E. Klazura
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 95
RESEARCH NEEDS FOR LARGE-SCALE, APPLIED CUMULUS CLOUDS ...... 31 WEATHER MODIFICATION PROGRAMS ...... 354 A. S. Ramachandra Murty, A. M. Selvam, Merlin C. Williams and D. Ray Booker and Bh. V. Ramana Murty
AN INTERESTING EARLY REFERENCE: A SUMMARY OF RAIN INCREASE OPERATIONS IN ARTIFICIAL RAINMAKING IN KANSAS; THE CENTRAL MICHIGAN DURING THE SUMMERS OF RAINMAKERS AT WORK. RECEIVED FROM:...... 360 1972, 1973 AND 1974 ...... 44 Arnold Court Irving P. Krick
HOW WEATHER ENGINEERING WILL EASE THE CLOUD SEEDING FROM SPACE BY HIGH ENERGY CRISIS ...... 362 ALTITUDE ROCKETS ...... 49 Irving P. Krick F. Winterberg
WEATHER MODIFICATION MILITARY USE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY STATEMENT ...... 375 HYPOTHESIS FOR SEEDED AND NATURAL CUMULUS CLOUDS USING RESULTS FROM A CONSTITUTION AND BY-LAWS OF THE WEATHER WEATHER MODIFICATION EXPERIMENT ...... 58 MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 376 Gerard E. Klazura
QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR ON THE FORMATION OF ICE UNDER THE CERTIFICATION BY THE WEATHER INFLUENCE OF PbI2...... 70 MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 380 N. Gendiev
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - METROMEX: LESSONS FOR PRECIPITATION OFFICERS ...... 383 ENHANCEMENT IN THE MIDWEST ...... 77 Richard G. Semonin and WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - Stanley A. Changnon, Jr. CERTIFIED AND HONORARY MEMBERS...... 384 EVALUATION OF AN OPERATIONAL HAIL WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - SUPPRESSION PROJECT IN TEXAS...... 88 CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... 385 Stanley A. Changnon, Jr.
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - HAIL SUPPRESSION IN ALBERTA - 1956-1968 ...... 101 ASSOCIATE CORPORATE MEMBERS...... 386 Irving P. Krick and Newton C. Stone
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - STUDY OF DROPSIZE DISTRIBUTION IN WARM INDIVIDUAL MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY...... 387 CLOUDS SUBJECTED TO REPEATED SEEDING..... 116 R. K. Kapoor, S. K. Paul, BACKGROUND OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION A. S. Ramachandra Murty, ASSOCIATION...... 395 K. Krishna, and Bh. V. Ramana Murty
LIST OF PAST OFFICERS ...... 395 PROOF OF LEGAL CAUSATION IN WEATHER MODIFICATION LITIGATION: REINBOLD V. JOURNAL NOTE...... 396 SUMNER FARMERS, INC. AND IRVING P. KRICK, INC...... 127 INSTRUCTIONS - ADVERTISEMENTS AND Ray Jay Davis and Pierre St. Amand MEMBERSHIP DUES ...... 397 WEATHER MODIFICATION AND PUBLIC OPINION ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ IN SOUTH DAKOTA, PRELIMINARY FINDINGS ...... 145 - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - Barbara C. Farhar WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION PRESENT AND FUTURE OF WEATHER VOLUME 7 MODIFICATION: REGIONAL ISSUES...... 154 Number 1 April 1975 Stanley A. Changnon, Jr.
TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE SURVEY OF INDUSTRY PRACTICES IN WEATHER MODIFICATION -- PRELIMINARY REPORT OF WMA PROJECT SUNSHINE...... 1 COMMITTEE ON INDUSTRY PRACTICES...... 177 Dr. Vincent J. Schaefer Keith J. Brown, Arnett Dennis, and Ronald L. Lininger SEEDING SINGLE CLOUDS USING PYROTECHNIC CARTRIDGES, 1973-74...... 4 BACKGROUND AND SUMMARY INFORMATION ON D. L. McNaughton THE KINGS RIVER WEATHER MODIFICATION PROGRAM CONDUCTED DURING THE 19-YEAR A NEW AIRBORNE ORGANIC ICE NUCLEI PERIOD FROM 1954 THROUGH 1973 ...... 184 GENERATOR AND ITS TESTS IN SUMMERTIME Thomas J. Henderson CUMULI ...... 17 N. Fukuta, J. Armstrong, and A. Gorove THE KENYA HAIL SUPPRESSION PROGRAM...... 192 Thomas J. Henderson DYNAMIC EFFECT OF SALT SEEDING IN WARM
96 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
PRELIMINARY INFORMATION ON U.S. WEATHER NUMERICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS FOR THE MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES IN CY 1974*...... 200 ALBERTA HAIL PROJECT...... 43 Mason T. Charak Marianne English
CONSTITUTION AND BY-LAWS OF THE WEATHER HOW SILVER IODIDE SEEDING SUPPRESSES MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 205 HAIL ...... 50 A.S. Dennis QUALIFICATION AND PROCEDURES FOR CERTIFICATION BY THE WEATHER DESIGN OF AN EXPERIMENT TO SUPPRESS MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 209 HAIL IN ILLINOIS ...... 60 Stanley A. Changnon, Jr. and Griffith M. WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION Morgan, Jr. OFFICERS ...... 212 REVIEW OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN HAIL WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION SUPPRESSION PROJECT...... 80 CERTIFIED AND HONORARY MEMBERS...... 214 Joanne Simpson
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION THE STATUS OF A HAIL SUPPRESSION CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... 215 PROJECT IN TEXAS...... 84 Thomas J. Henderson WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION INDIVIDUAL MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY...... 217 THE KENYA HAIL SUPPRESSION PROGRAM...... 93 Thomas J. Henderson BACKGROUND OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 224 OBSERVATION OF THE SOVIET HAIL LIST OF PAST OFFICERS OF THE WEATHER PROJECTS...... 101 MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 224 Thomas J. Henderson
JOURNAL NOTE -- FUTURE MEETING DATES ...... 225 THE EVALUATION OF POSSIBLE HAIL SUPPRESSION IN KANSAS...... 109 INSTRUCTIONS - ADVERTISEMENTS AND Donald Christy MEMBERSHIP DUES ...... 226 ICE NUCLEI MEASUREMENTS IN ITALY...... 129 ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ Aldo Buscaglione - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ALBERTA WEATHER MODIFICATION CO-OP PROGRAM ...... 143 VOLUME 7 J.T. Bishop Number 2 December 1975 AN ANALYSIS OF THIRTEEN YEARS OF EDITOR’S NOTE COMMERCIAL HAIL SUPPRESSION IN CENTRAL Volume 7, Number 2, is a special edition of THE JOURNAL OF ALBERTA ...... 153 WEATHER MODIFICATION. The publication arose from the T.A. Peterson high interest in the program developed for the Fall Meeting held in Calgary, Canada, 4-5 September 1975. Formal papers THE ALBERTA HAIL PROJECT -- RESEARCH and comments presented at that meeting were considered by AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS AND CAPABILITIES...... 171 the membership to be of sufficient importance for assembling K.L. Grandia in a single volume of JWM. The Publication Committee appreciates that response from those who presented SWISS RANDOMIZED HAIL SUPPRESSION information at that meeting and organized their presentations EXPERIMENT, GROSSVERSUCH IV ...... 177 for publication. Bruno Federer
For purposes of this volume, the various presentations are ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ reprinted exactly as the authors submitted their material. - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION TABLE OF CONTENTS VOLUME 8 THE ALBERTA HAIL PROJECT...... 1 Number 1 April 1976 J. Renick TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE INFORMAL REMARKS BY IRVING P. KRICK ...... 7 Irving P. Krick Associates of Canada THE RISE AND FALL OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA WEATHER MODIFICATION PROGRAM ...... 1 HAIL SUPPRESSION IN ALBERTA -- 1956-1968...... 13 John A. Donnan, Jackson L. Pellett, Irving P. Krick and Newton C. Stone Richard S. Leblang, and Leo F. Ritter
HAILFALL AND CROP DAMAGE IN CENTRAL AN OPERATIONAL DECISION LADDER FOR ALBERTA...... 28 SOUTH DAKOTA ...... 21 L. Wojtiw Jackson L. Pellet, Leo F. Ritter, John A. Donnan, and Richard S. Leblang
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 97
DEVELOPMENT OF A STATE RAINGAUGE NAIWMC - FORMATION AND ITS ACTIVITIES NETWORK...... 34 THROUGH 1975...... 157 Leo F. Ritter, Jackson L. Pellett, Richard S. Conrad G. Keyes, Jr. Leblang, and John A. Donnan THE PRESENT STATUS AND FUTURE POTENTIAL OF HAIL SUPPRESSION...... 164 EVALUATION OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA WEATHER Stanley A. Changnon, Jr. and Griffith M. MODIFICATION PROGRAM...... 37 Morgan, Jr. Richard S. Leblang and Jackson L. Pellett AFTER TWENTY-NINE YEARS -- A PROPOSAL ...... 190 ICE NUCLEUS TESTING OF THE AIRBORNE JET Vincent J. Schaefer SEEDER ...... 48 John W. Carroz CONSTITUTION AND BY-LAWS OF THE WEATHER IS ICE MULTIPLICATION A PROMINENT FACTOR MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... 197 IN OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION?...... 51 Russell W. Shaffer and Robert D. Elliott QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR CERTIFICATION BY THE WEATHER ICE MULTIPLICATION IN THE SIERRA NEVADA? – MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... 201 A REPLY ...... 63 Roger F. Reinking WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION OFFICERS...... 204 ORGANIC ICE NUCLEI FIELD TESTS: SOUTH DAKOTA AND LEADVILLE COOPERATIVE BACKGROUND OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION PROJECTS, SUMMER, 1975 ...... 67 ASSOCIATION ...... 206 N. Fukuta, M.N. Plooster, J.A. Armstrong, and J. Butz LIST OF PAST OFFICERS...... 206
EFFECT OF THE TEMPERATURE SPECTRUM OF WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ACTIVE ICE NUCLEI ON TARGETING OF SEEDED CERTIFIED AND HONORARY MEMBERS ...... 207 OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION ...... 78 N. Fukuta WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION CORPORATE MEMBERS...... 208 OBSERVATION OF EFFECTS ON CLOUDS AND RAINFALL CAUSED BY EFFLUENTS FROM PAPER WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION MILLS ...... 84 INDIVIDUAL MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY ...... 210 Edward E. Hindman II JOURNAL NOTE -- FUTURE MEETING DATES...... 218 REPORT ON NATIONAL CLOUD SEEDING OPERATION 1974-75...... 93 INSTRUCTIONS -- ADVERTISEMENTS AND J.E. Stevens MEMBERSHIP DUES...... 219
AN OPERATIONAL DROUGHT RELIEF PROGRAM ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ CONDUCTED IN JAMAICA DURING THE SUMMER - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - OF 1975 ...... 115 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION Don A. Griffith and Keith J. Brown VOLUME 8 RESULTS OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT Number 2 September 1976 PROJECT BY SURFACE-SEEDING DURING WINTER AT DELHI...... 126 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE R.N. Chatterjee, R.K. Kapoor, Gurmukh Singh, and Bh. V. Ramana Murty THE REMARKABLE VINCE SCHAEFER ...... 1 Earl G. Droessler RESULTS OF TWO YEARS OF RANDOMIZED CLOUD SEEDING EXPERIMENTS IN THE DECCAN AFTER 29 1/2 YEARS...... 5 PLATEAU, INDIA ...... 134 Vincent J. Schaefer K. Krishna, R.K. Kapoor, A.S. Ramachandra Murty, S. Rajamani, A.M. Selvam, EARLY EXPERIMENTS WITH SILVER IODIDE...... 8 L.T. Khemani, K.K. Kanuga, B.K. Mukherjee, Dr. Bernard Vonnegut S.K. Paul, R.S. Reddy, G.K. Manobar Brijmohan, R.Vijayakumar, and Bh. V. CITIES CAN MODIFY RAINFALL -- A NEW Ramana Murty CONCEPT ...... 12 Stanley A. Changon, Jr. AN OPERATIONAL RAIN STIMULATION EXPERIMENT USING WARM TECHNIQUE SEEDING CLOUDS AT THE SURFACE, CLOUD OVER RIHAND CATCHMENT IN NORTHEAST BASE, AND CLOUD TOP...... 29 INDIA DURING SUMMER MONSOONS Ken L. Grandia OF 1973 AND 1974...... 145 R.K. Kapoor, K. Krishna, R.N. Chaterjee, USE OF MODELS IN WEATHER MODIFICATION -- A.S. Ramachandra Murty, S.K. Sharma and SOLUTIONS OR CONFUSION? ...... 33 Bh. V. Ramana Murty Dr. Bernard A. Silverman
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EVALUATION OF OPERATIONAL WEATHER THE FIRST TECHNOLOGY FOG IS ABATED MODIFICATION PROJECTS...... 42 W. Boynton Beckwith John A. Flueck THE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE LAWYERS GET INVOLVED -- OR HOW TO OPERATIONAL WEATHER MODIFICATION MAKE YOURSELF MISERABLE ...... 57 Dr. D. Ray Booker Ray Jay Davis THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FEDERAL ROLE IN WEATHER MODIFICATION GOES PUBLIC...... 64 WEATHER MODIFICATION Barbara C. Farhar Dr. Earl Droessler
ON THE POSSIBILITIES OF RAIN AUGMENTATION DEVELOPMENT OF PYROTECHNIC MATERIALS, BY CLOUD SEEDING IN THE PERSIAN GULF AREA NUCLEATION & CLOUD SEEDING TECHNIQUES (QATAR AND OMAN) ...... 75 Dr. Pierre St. Amand Dr. Joanne Simpson THE WEATHER MODIFICATION RESEARCH PROJECT SKYWATER ...... 107 PROGRAM OF NOAA Dr. B.A. Silverman Merlin C. Williams
THE WEATHER MODIFICATION RESEARCH ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ PROGRAM OF THE RANN DIRECTORATE OF THE - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION...... 121 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION Richard A. Dirks VOLUME 9 THE FUTURE OF WEATHER MODIFICATION ...... 127 Number 1 April 1977 Dr. Vincent J. Schaefer TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE AN ABBREVIATED HISTORY OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 129 AN EARLY ACCOUNT OF A FLIGHT TO MODIFY Thomas J. Henderson LIGHTNING STORMS...... 1 Vincent J. Schaefer and H.T. Gisborne CONSTITUTION AND BY-LAWS OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 135 IMPACTS OF URBAN-MODIFIED PRECIPITATION ON MAN’S ACTIVITIES...... 8 QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR Stanley A. Changnon, Jr. CERTIFICATION BY THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 139 INADVERTENT MODIFICATION OF VISIBILITY IN THE VICINITY OF A MAJOR METROPOLITAN WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION AREA ...... 19 OFFICERS ...... 142 August H. Auer, Jr.
BACKGROUND OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION FORMATION AND ASSOCIATION...... 144 MODIFICATION BY REFINERIES AND POWER PLANTS...... 32 LIST OF PAST OFFICERS ...... 144 J. Robert Stinson and Clifford D. Brown
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION FORMATION BY CERTIFIED AND HONORARY MEMBERS...... 145 REFINERY EMISSIONS...... 38 J. Robert Stinson WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... 146 RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT, POLLUTION CLEAN- UP, AND ENERGY PRODUCTION THROUGH WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION CLOUD CHAMBER-CONTROLLED CLOUDS ...... 41 INDIVIDUAL MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY...... 148 J. Robert Stinson
JOURNAL NOTE -- FUTURE MEETING DATES ...... 156 VERTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF IN AND CCN IN EASTERN MONTANA...... 45 INSTRUCTIONS -- ADVERTISEMENTS AND J.T. McPartland and A.B. Super MEMBERSHIP DUES ...... 157 ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF NUCLEATING AGENTS NOTE: USED IN WEATHER MODIFICATION PROGRAMS: The following papers were scheduled for presentation AN INTERDISCIPLINARY ASSESSMENT ...... 51 at the Silver Anniversary Meeting of the Weather D.A. Klein Modification Association but were not available for publication in this issue: INCREASES IN SILVER IODIDE ATTRIBUTABLE TO GROUND GENERATORS: HIGHLIGHTS OF THE STEP FORWARD -- SNOWFALL AND 1975 ALBERTA GROUND GENERATOR TEMPERATURE EXPERIMENT ...... 57 Lewis O’Grant K.L. Grandia and D.S. Davison
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 99
PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF THE 1976 RAIN ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ MODIFICATION PROJECT IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS .... 66 - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - Stanley A. Changnon, Jr. and Neil G. Towery WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION
CLOUD SEEDING EXPERIMENTAL PROGRAM IN VOLUME 10 RHODESIA: 1974-75 ...... 79 Number 1 April 1978 D.L. McNaughton TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE AN EXAMINATION OF THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION OVER THE TARGET AREA OF IS SOMETHING HAPPENING TO OUR SUPPLY OF THE COLORADO RIVER MUNICIPAL WATER SUPERCOOLED CLOUDS? ...... 1 DISTRICT’S WEATHER MODIFICATION Vincent J. Schaefer PROGRAM...... John Girdzus NATIONAL CLOUD SEEDING OPERATION 1976- 1977 ...... 4 POTENTIAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF HAIL J.S. Stevens SUPPRESSION TO CROP PRODUCERS IN DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES ..... 100 EXPERIMENTAL CLOUD SEEDING PROGRAM Craig W. Potter and Steven T. Sonka 1976/1977...... 16 D.L. McNaughton MELTING RATES OF VARIOUS SIZE HAILSTONES IN A LARGE VERTICAL WIND TUNNEL ...... 117 SUMMARY OF THREE SEASONS’ SINGLE CLOUD Steven B. Newman and Narayan R. Gokhale SEEDING RESULTS IN RHODESIA, BETWEEN 1968 AND 1975 ...... 21 COLLECTION KERNELS FOR THE CAPTURE OF D.L. McNaughton SILVER IODIDE BY CLOUD WATER DROPS...... 125 L.A. Mathews and P. St. Amand HAIL-PRECIPITATION RATIOS FROM THREE PROJECTS...... 35 CHARACTERISTICS OF SILVER IODIDE ICE James R. Miller, Jr. NUCLEI GENERATORS CURRENTLY USED BY SO.R.E.M...... 146 CLOUD SEEDING IN NECAXA WATERSHED...... 39 Aldo Buscaglione Jorge Estrada Betancourt
COMMUNITY RESPONSE TO SNOWPACK SIX WEEKS OF SEEDING IN SOUTHWEST AUGMENTATION IN THE SIERRA NEVADA ALBERTA ...... 51 MOUNTAINS...... 154 James T. Bishop Barbara C. Farhar and Ronald Rinkle RADAR EVALUATION OF THE EFFECT OF SALT WEATHER MODIFICATION VIEWS OF USER- SEEDING ON WARM MARITIME CUMULUS PAYERS IN NORTH DAKOTA...... 193 CLOUDS...... 54 James T. Eastgate R.N. Chatterjee, A.S. Ramachandra Murty, K. Krishna, and Bh.B. Ramana Murty CONSTITUTION AND BY-LAWS OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 198 PRELIMINARY REPORT ON THE SILVER CONTENT OF SOILS IN NORTHEASTERN QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR WISCONSIN - JULY-AUGUST 1977...... 62 CERTIFICATION BY THE WEATHER Jack C. Norman MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 202 ON THE CONCENTRATION OF SILVER IN WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION PRECIPITATION FROM STORMS SEEDED WITH OFFICERS ...... 205 SILVER IODIDE...... 67 Jack C. Norman BACKGROUND OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 207 ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF DRY ICE (SOLID CARBON DIOXIDE) USED AS A SEEDING LIST OF PAST OFFICERS ...... 207 AGENT IN WEATHER MODIFICATION...... 69 Jack C. Norman WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION CERTIFIED AND HONORARY MEMBERS...... 208 DIFFUSION OF GROUND-GENERATED SILVER IODIDE TO CUMULUS CLOUD FORMATION JOURNAL NOTE -- FUTURE MEETING DATES ...... 209 LEVELS ...... 71 Jack McPartland and Arlin Super WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION 210 CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... WATER DROPLET FOGS FORMED FROM PYROTECHNICALLY GENERATED WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION CONDENSATION NUCLEI...... 77 INDIVIDUAL MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY...... 212 Edward E. Hindman, II
INSTRUCTIONS -- ADVERTISEMENTS AND MEMBERSHIP DUES ...... 221
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METALLIC OXIDES AS FREEZING NUCLEI...... 97 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE Michael T. Reischel HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH? ...... 1 AN ASSESSMENT OF SOME AEROSOL Vincent J. Schaefer PROPERTIES IN MIDWESTERN POWER PLANT PLUMES ...... 107 - REVIEWED SECTION- Mark J. Komp and August H. Auer, Jr. GROUND SEEDING HAIL PREVENTION AN OVERVIEW OF THE SKYWATER IX EXPERIMENT IN FRANCE...... 4 CONFERENCE ON PRECIPITATION J. Dessens MANAGEMENT AND THE ENVIRONMENT ...... 119 Wallace E. Howell MOST PROMISING CONCEPT OF HAIL SUPPRESSION...... 18 THE SEARCH FOR A PERFECT WEATHER Narayan N. Gokhale MODIFICATION EXPERIMENT: AN ESSAY...... 144 Arnett S. Dennis ASSESSMENT OF WEATHER MODIFICATION POTENTIAL FOR ALLEVIATING AGRICULTURAL DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS OF A WINTER DROUGHTS IN THE MIDWEST ...... 28 OROGRAPHIC CLOUD-SEEDING PROGRAM IN F.A. Huff THE ALBORZ MOUNTAINS OF IRAN...... 153 A.E. Dabiri, G. Nemat, and J.A. Warburton EFFECTS OF HAIL SUPPRESSION ON RAINFALL IN THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS ...... 51 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF REPORTED Donald R. Haragan WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES IN THE U.S. FOR CY 1976 AND 1977 ...... 165 MORE RAIN AND LESS HAIL IN SOUTHWEST Mason T. Charak ALBERTA PROJECT...... 71 James T. Bishop CLOUD SEEDING IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...... 170 Jerome W. Kirby LABORATORY AND ATMOSPHERIC VORTEX INSTABILITIES...... 73 BACKGROUND OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION Thomas Y. Palmer ASSOCIATION...... 179 CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN CONSTITUTION AND BY-LAWS OF THE WEATHER REGION...... 87 MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 180 Donald R. Haragan
QUALIFICATION AND PROCEDURES FOR NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF CLOUD SEEDING CERTIFICATION BY THE WMA...... 184 EXPERIMENTS IN MAHARASHTRA STATE, INDIA ...... 116 OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES OF THE WEATHER A. Mary Selvam, A.S. Ramachandra Murty, MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 187 and Bh.V. Ramana Murty
LIST OF PAST OFFICERS OF THE WEATHER - NON-REVIEWED SECTION - MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 189 SIMULTANEOUS CLOUD COMPARISONS USING CERTIFIED MEMBERS OF THE WEATHER DIGITAL RADAR AND SATELLITE MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 190 MEASUREMENTS ...... 141 Michael R. Poellot and David W. Reynolds HONORARY MEMBERS OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 191 HISTORY OF PLANNED WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES AND RESEARCH WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ANNUAL AT THE ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY, AWARDS ...... 192 1947-1978...... 156 Stanley A. Changnon, Jr. WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION INDIVIDUAL AND CORPORATE MEMBERS...... 194 ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLOUD SEEDING IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA ...... 166 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION David F. McGinnis JOURNAL NOTES AND MEETING DATES ...... 208 REQUIREMENTS IN WEATHER MODIFICATION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION THE STATES VIEWPOINT ...... 173 MEMBERSHIP INFORMATION...... 210 Conrad G. Keyes, Jr.
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ AN EARLY USE OF WEATHER MODIFICATION ...... 184 - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - Pierre St.-Amand WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION PARTIAL ANALYSIS OF REPORTED WEATHER VOLUME 11 MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES IN THE U.S. FOR CY Number 1 April 1979 1978 AND COMPARISONS WITH RESULTS FOR CY 1976 AND 1977 ...... 186
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 101
Mason T. Charak INTERCOMPARISON OF MEE AND NCAR ICE NUCLEUS COUNTERS AND THE CSU COMPUTERIZED ON-LINE HAIL BIBLIOGRAPHY ..... 190 ISOTHERMAL CHAMBER ...... 24 Illinois State Water Survey G. Langer and D. Garvey BACKGROUND OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 191 CLOUD NUCLEI FROM LAUNCHES AND FIRINGS OF SOLID ROCKET BOOSTERS ...... 34 CONSTITUTION AND BY-LAWS OF THE WEATHER Edward E. Hindman, II, F. Kirk Odencrantz, MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 192 and William G. Finnegan
QUALIFICATION AND PROCEDURES FOR SATELLITE CLOUD DATA AS INPUT TO CLOUD CERTIFICATION BY THE WMA...... 196 SEEDING OPERATIONS ...... 56 James A. Henry and Jeffery A. Isaacs STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS - - NON-REVIEWED SECTION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 199 BACK TO BASICS?...... 67 OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES OF THE WEATHER Vincent J. Schaefer MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 202 THE WMO PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT LIST OF PAST OFFICERS OF THE WEATHER PROJECT (PEP) - PROGRESS TO DATE AND MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 204 PRESENT STATUS...... 70 Peter W. Summers CERTIFIED MEMBERS OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 205 NORCAL-WMP: 13 FLIGHTS ON 7 DAYS, 1978 ...... 84 Arnold Court HONORARY MEMBERS OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 206 SILVER IODIDE ICE NUCLEI GENERATOR STARTER TRIGGERED BY ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ANNUAL ELECTRIC POTENTIAL GRADIENT ...... 92 AWARDS ...... 207 Albert H. Schnell and Erhard Bachmann
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION BROKEN CUMULUS BASES AND MODELING ...... 98 INDIVIDUAL & CORPORATE MEMBERS...... 209 D.L. McNaughton
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION INTEGRATING THE SOCIETAL COMPONENT IN JOURNAL NOTES AND MEETING DATES ...... 223 THE PROPOSED NORTHERN COLORADO TOTAL AREA MOUNTAIN SEEDING EXPERIMENT ...... 105 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Ray Jay Davis, Lewis O. Grant, Donald A. INFORMATION ...... 224 Klein, E. Bruce Jones, and Craig Piernot
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF REPORTED MEMBERSHIP INFORMATION...... 225 WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES IN THE U.S. FOR CY 1979 AND COMPARISON WITH DATA FOR ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ CY 1973-1978...... 110 - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - Mason T. Charak WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION NOAA’S NEW THRUST IN WEATHER VOLUME 12 MODIFICATION...... 115 Number 1 April 1980 Ferris Webster
TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE ANOTHER ITEM OF HISTORIC INTEREST...... 118 Weather Bureau Topics and Personnel PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE...... iv Ray Jay Davis SENATE HEARINGS ON WEATHER RESOURCES THE DESERT RESEARCH INSTITUTE MANAGEMENT RESEARCH...... 120 ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH Ray Jay Davis AIRCRAFT TRAGEDY...... v WMO/UNEP WEATHER MODIFICATION - REVIEWED SECTION - INTERNATIONAL LAW PROPOSALS...... 127 Ray Jay Davis GENERAL AND SPECIAL HYPOTHESIS FOR WINTER OROGRAPHIC CLOUD SEEDING...... 1 BACKGROUND OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION C.J. Todd and W.E. Howell ASSOCIATION ...... 130
ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF COVARIATES FOR AN ABBREVIATED HISTORY OF THE WEATHER THE EVALUATION OF OPERATIONAL SEEDING MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... 131 PROJECTS IN AREAS WITHOUT PHYSIOGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ...... 16 CONSTITUTION AND BY-LAWS OF THE WEATHER Gary L. Achtimeier MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... 138
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QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR THE ISRAELI RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT CERTIFICATION BY THE WMA...... 142 EXPERIMENT - A PHYSICAL OVERVIEW...... 108 A. Gagin WMA STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS ...... 145 WEATHER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT OF THE KINGS RIVER WATERSHED ...... 121 OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES OF THE WEATHER Thomas J. Henderson MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 148 ASSESSMENT OF SUMMER 1979 WEATHER LIST OF PAST OFFICERS, CERTIFIED MEMBERS, MODIFICATION EFFORT IN SOUTHEASTERN AND HONORARY MEMBERS...... 150 ILLINOIS...... 132 Chin-Fei Hsu and Stanley A. Changnon, Jr. WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ANNUAL AWARDS ...... 153 SEVEN YEARS OF WEATHER MODIFICATION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH...... 141 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION John R. Thompson and Don A. Griffith INDIVIDUAL AND CORPORATE MEMBERS...... 155 VARIATIONS IN RAINFALL AND INSURED CROP- WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION HAIL LOSSES ASSOCIATED WITH OPERATIONAL JOURNAL NOTES AND MEETING DATE...... 164 CLOUD SEEDING IN SOUTH DAKOTA ...... 150 Arnett S. Dennis, Barbara G. Brown, and JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION James R. Miller, Jr. INFORMATION ...... 165 WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES IN TAIWAN, WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION 1951-1978...... 161 MEMBERSHIP INFORMATION...... 166 Chin-Fei Hsu
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ OVERVIEW OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - RESEARCH IN INDIA...... 165 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION Bh.V. Ramana Murty
VOLUME 13 SALT SEEDING FROM AIRCRAFT OVER Number 1 April 1981 LINGANAMAKKI CATCHMENT, SOUTH INDIA...... 167 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE A.S. Ramachandra Murty, A. Mary Selvam, C.P. Kulkarni, R.W. Chatterjee, and PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE...... iv Bh.V. Ramana Murty Daniel F. Kriege ELECTRICAL AND MICROPHYSICAL RESPONSES THE SERENDIPITOUS HAPPENINGS WHICH LED TO SALT SEEDING IN WARM MARITIME CUMULUS TO WEATHER MODIFICATION ...... 1 CLOUDS...... 174 Vincent J. Schaefer A.S. Ramachandra Murty, A. Mary Selvam, B.K. Bandyopadhyay, W. Revathi, A.G. THE LIGHTER SIDE OF LIFE WITH PROJECT Pillai, and Bh.V. Ramana Murty CIRRUS ...... 5 Duncan C. Blanchard GROUND-BASED SALT SEEDING IN TAMIL NADU STATE SOUTH INDIA, 1973-1977...... 177 MISCONCEPTION ABOUT CLOUD SEEDING WITH 9 A.G. Pillai, R.S. Reddy, R. Vijayakumar, DRY ICE...... R.K. Kapoor, A.S. Ramachandra Murty, Bernard Vonnegut A. Mary Selvam, and Bh.V. Ramana Murty
THE MECHANISMS OF CLOUD SEEDING WITH CHLORIDE AND SODIUM ION INCREASES IN RAIN DRY ICE...... 11 FROM SALT SEEDED CLOUDS ...... 182 (Reply to Vonnegut) L.T. Khemani, G.A. Homin, M.S. Naik, A.S. B.J. Mason Ramachandra Murty, and Bh.V. Ramana Murty FROM MT. WASHINGTON, N.H. TO SCHENECTADY, N.Y. AND PROJECT CIRRUS ...... 12 HAIL SUPPRESSION IN THE HUDSON VALLEY, Raymond E. Falconer 1956 AND 1957 ...... 184 Thomas J. Henderson EARLY HISTORY OF CLOUD SEEDING...... 14 Barrington S. Havens, James E. Jiusto, “SIDE-SKIM SEEDING” FOR CONVECTIVE CLOUD and Bernard Vonnegut MODIFICATION...... 188 Norihiko Fukuta
- REVIEWED SECTION - DESIGN FOR EVALUATION...... 193
Arnold Court THE PRECIPITATION STIMULATION PROJECT
OF THE CITY OF NEW YORK, 1950 ...... 89 Wallace E. Howell
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 103
STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES AND KEY ISSUES A NEW CERTIFICATION PROGRAM FOR WMA ...... 246 FOR THE EVALUATION OF OPERATIONAL Keith J. Brown WEATHER MODIFICATION ...... 195 Chin-Fei Hsu, K. Ruben Gabriel, and WMA OFFICERS, COMMITTEES, PAST OFFICERS, Stanley A. Changnon, Jr. CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS AND HONORARY MEMBERS...... 249 CLOUD SEEDING SOUTHEAST OF MEXICO CITY, 1974-76 ...... 200 WMA AWARDS - SCHAEFER AWARD, Jorge Estrada Betancourt and Isabel THUNDERBIRD AWARD, BLACK CROW Villasenor Diaz AWARD ...... 252
THE PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT PROJECT WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - INDIVIDUAL OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL AND CORPORATE ...... 253 ORGANIZATION, PROGRAM AND PROGRESS ...... 203 Roland List JOURNAL NOTES AND FUTURE WMA MEETINGS. 261
- NON-REVIEWED SECTION - JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION INDEX OF AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS...... 262 HAIL SUPPRESSION ACTIVITIES IN THE SOVIET UNION...... 209 ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ I.I. Burtsev - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION PLANNING OF THE EXPERIMENT ON PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT IN LAKE SEVAN VOLUME 14 BASIN ...... 213 Number 1 April 1982 W.I. Vulfson TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE AN INDICATOR OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT DUE TO CLOUD SEEDING AIMED PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE ...... iv AT REDUCING HAIL...... 218 Paul C. Summers M. Curic - REVIEWED SECTION - PHYSICAL-STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ESTIMATION OF HAIL SUPPRESSION EFFICIENCY WEATHER MODIFICATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, AND SOME ESTIMATES OF SUPPRESSION 1966-1972...... 1 RESULTS CONCERNING TARGET AREAS IN E.M. Frisby BULGARIA ...... 221 Kostadin Stanchev and Petio Simeonov PIGGYBACK WEATHER EXPERIMENTATION: SUPERIMPOSING RANDOMIZED TREATMENT STUDIES OF THE INFLUENCE OF EXPLOSION COMPARISONS ON COMMERCIAL CLOUD UPON THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESSES OF SEEDING OPERATIONS ...... 7 CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...... 226 K.R. Gabriel and S.A. Changnon, Jr. Haung Mei-yun, Xu Hau-ying, Wang Ang-sheng, Xu Msi-zhang STORM TYPING IN WEATHER MODIFICATION ANALYSIS ...... 11 PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF REPORTED Jack F. Hannaford and John W. James WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES IN THE U.S. DURING 1980 AND COMPARISON WITH DATA COMPUTATION OF A “STORM SEEDING FOR 1973-1979...... 231 FACTOR” FOR HAIL SUPPRESSION BY Mason T. Charak GROUND SEEDING...... 18 Pierre Admirat and Aldo Buscaglione ANOTHER FIRST FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION... 235 Glenn W. Brier CLOUD-SEEDING EFFECT ON WATER STRESS OF MAIZE IN ZIMBABWE...... 23 SUMMARY OF REPORT ON CRITERIA FOR D.L. McNaughton and J.C.S. Allison WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATIONS AND EFFECTIVE EVALUATION...... 236 DYNAMIC RESPONSES OF WARM MONSOON F.A. Huff and S.A. Changnon, Jr. CLOUDS TO SALT SEEDING...... 35 S.S. Parasnis, A. Mary Selvam, A.S. SOME SELECTED PUBLICATIONS IN WEATHER Ramachandra Murty and Bh.V. Ramana MODIFICATION - (1970-1980) ...... 237 Murty
AN ABBREVIATED HISTORY OF WMA ...... 238 CHEMICAL COMPOSITION OF RAINS OVER KENYA...... 38 CONSTITUTION AND BY-LAWS OF WMA...... 242 K.K. Kanuga
WMA STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS EMERGENCY CLOUD SEEDING IN GEORGIA, FOR WMA...... 244 SUMMER, 1977...... 43 Don A. Griffith
104 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
CLOUD SEEDING IN CHILE ...... 47 ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ David Erickson and Oscar Badilla - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION RANDOMIZED CLOUD SEEDING AT GUTTIAN, FUJIAN, CHINA ...... 53 VOLUME 15 Jia-deng Yeh, Ke-ming Cheng and Number 1 April 1983 Guang-peng Zhen TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE A SYSTEM OF HYPOTHESES FOR PRECIPITATION MANAGEMENT TODAY...... 61 PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE ...... v Clement J. Todd and Wallace E. Howell Conrad G. Keyes, Jr.
WILL SPACE SHUTTLE LAUNCH CLOUDS BE AN - REVIEWED SECTION - IMPORTANT SOURCE OF ICE NUCLEI?...... 75 Edward E. Hindman and William G. Finnegan A CONFIRMATORY EVALUATION OF THE GROSSVERSUCH IV EXPERIMENT USING - NON-REVIEWED SECTION - HAILPAD DATA (FRENCH NETWORK 1977-1981).... 1 J.F. Mezeix and P. Caillot EXPERT WITNESSES IN WEATHER MODIFICATION LEGAL PROCEEDINGS ...... 78 MEASUREMENT ERRORS RELATED TO A Ray Jay Davis and Pierre St.-Amand HAILPAD NETWORK...... 7 N. Doras WEATHER RESOURCES LAW AT SUNSET AND HIGH NOON...... 81 ICE NUCLEATION BY SILVER IODIDE-SODIUM Ray Jay Davis IODIDE: A REEVALUATION ...... 11 R.R. Blumenstein, W.G. Finnegan and WEATHER MODIFICATION LAWS - LIST OF L.O. Grant STATES ...... 82 SEEDING AGENT THRESHOLD ACTIVATION PRELIMINARY DATA ON REPORTED WEATHER TEMPERATURE HEIGHT, AN IMPORTANT MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES IN THE U.S. SEEDABILITY CRITERION FOR GROUND-BASED FOR 1981...... 84 SEEDING...... 16 Mason T. Charak R.W. Shaffer
AN ABBREVIATED HISTORY OF THE WMA ...... 86 WEATHER MODIFICATION POTENTIAL DURING UTAH DROUGHT...... 21 ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE WMA ...... 90 J.L. Sutherland
WMA STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS WINTER OROGRAPHIC CLOUD SEEDING FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS ...... 92 NORTHEAST OF BEAR LAKE, UTAH...... 23 D.A. Griffith, J.R. Thompson and A NEW CERTIFICATION PROGRAM FOR THE WMA R.W. Shaffer 94 LIMITATIONS TO DYNAMIC SEEDING OF NORTH QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR DAKOTA SUMMER CLOUDS ...... 28 CERTIFICATION BY THE WMA...... 95 Jeffrey L. Stith
WMA OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES...... 97 DEVELOPMENT OF PHYSICAL EVALUATION TECHNIQUES FOR THE NORTH DAKOTA CLOUD WMA LIST OF PAST OFFICERS ...... 98 MODIFICATION PROJECT...... 34 J.R. Miller, Jr., S. Ionescu-Niscov, WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION D.L. Priegnitz, A.A. Doneaud, J.H. Hirsch, OPERATORS AND MANAGERS - WMA HONORARY and P.L. Smith MEMBERS ...... 99 OBSERVATIONS OF NATURAL SEEDING 40 WMA AWARDS - SCHAEFER AWARD, BENEATH ANVIL CLOUDS ...... THUNDERBIRD AWARD, BLACK CROW AWARD ..... 100 Jeffrey L. Stith
WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - INDIVIDUAL EFFECTS OF ARTIFICIAL AND NATURAL CIRRUS MEMBERS ...... 101 CLOUDS ON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE GROUND...... 45 WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - CORPORATE Andrew Detwiler MEMBERS ...... 107 CLOUD SEEDING WITH THE TG-10 ROCKETS ...... 56 JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT V. Horvat and B. Lipovscak INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS - 1982/83 ...... 108 CHARACTERISTICS OF HAIL PROCESSES AND HAIL FALLS IN MACEDONIA ...... 62 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - 16 Vitomir Dimitrievski AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS ...... 109
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 105
SUPERCOOLED LIQUID WATER TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE CONCENTRATIONS IN WINTER OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS FROM GROUND-BASED ICE ACCRETION PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE ...... v MEASUREMENTS...... 64 John W. James Thomas J. Henderson and Mark E. Solak - REVIEWED SECTION - SUNSET AND SUNRISE OF THE ILLINOIS A NEW NUMERICAL SIMULATION TECHNIQUE WEATHER MODIFICATION ACT...... 71 FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION EXPERIMENTS ..... 1 Stanley A. Changnon, Jr. A. Mary Selvam, A.S. Ramachandra Murty, and Bh.V. Ramana Murty DE FACTO REGULATION OF WEATHER MODIFICATION IN CALIFORNIA...... 74 EVAPORATION DECAY OF ORGANIC ICE Maurice Roos NUCLEUS PARTICLES...... 9 H.R. Vasquez and N. Fukuta - NON-REVIEWED SECTION - ASCENT OF SURFACE-RELEASED SILVER IODIDE PRELIMINARY DATA ON REPORTED WEATHER INTO SUMMER CONVECTION - ALBERTA 1975...... MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES IN THE U.S. FOR CY 19 1982 ...... 75 James A. Heimbach, Jr. and Newton Harold A. Corzine C. Stone
SUMMARY - INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON SEEDING RESULTS FAVOR SMALL CLOUDS IN HYDROMETEOROLOGY ...... 76 CHINA, SOUTH DAKOTA AND YUGOSLAVIA ...... 27 James R. Miller, Jr. WEATHER MODIFICATION LAWS - LIST OF STATES ...... 77 SEEDING EFFECTS ON CONVECTIVE CLOUDS IN THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN PILOT AN ABBREVIATED HISTORY OF THE WMA ...... 79 PROJECT...... 30 R.D. Elliott ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE WMA ...... 84 SELECTED ANALYSES OF A UTAH/NOAA WMA STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM FOR WMA OPERATORS ...... 86 CONDUCTED IN UTAH DURING THE 1982/83 WINTER SEASON...... 34 A NEW CERTIFICATION PROGRAM FOR THE WMA 88 Don A. Griffith Keith J. Brown USING HISTORICAL DATA TO EVALUATE TWO QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR LARGE-AREA OPERATIONAL SEEDING CERTIFICATION BY THE WMA...... 89 PROJECTS...... 40 Chin-Fei Hsu and Stanley A. Changnon, Jr. WMA OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES...... 91 CLEAR-AIR SEEDING: OPPORTUNITIES AND WMA LIST OF PAST OFFICERS ...... 92 STRATEGIES...... 46 A. Detwiler and R. Pratt WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS AND MANAGERS - WMA HONORARY - NON-REVIEWED SECTION - MEMBERS ...... 93 NATIONAL CLOUD-SEEDING OPERATION WMA AWARDS - SCHAEFER AWARD, 1982-83...... 61 THUNDERBIRD AWARD, BLACK CROW AWARD ..... 94 J.S. Stevens
WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - INDIVIDUAL AN OVERVIEW OF WEATHER MODIFICATION MEMBERS ...... 95 ACTIVITIES IN ALBERTA ...... 66 R.J. Deibert WMA DIRECTORY - CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... 101 THE NATURE OF RURAL PUBLIC OPINION TO JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT RAINMAKING IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA ...... 73 INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS - G.R. McBoyle 1983 ...... 102 CLOUD SEEDING RESEARCH IN A FOG JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - 17 FACILITY...... 86 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS ...... 103 Norihiko Fukuta
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ WEATHER MODIFICATION LAWS - U.S. AND - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - CANADA...... 88 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION AN ABBREVIATED HISTORY OF THE WMA...... 93 VOLUME 16 Number 1 April 1984 ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE WMA...... 98
106 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
WMA STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS STABLE ISOTOPIC COMPOSITION OF SNOW AS FOR WMA OPERATORS ...... 100 AN INDICATOR OF CLOUD SEEDABILITY ...... 36 Joseph A. Warburton and Tom P. DeFelice A NEW CERTIFICATION PROGRAM FOR THE WMA 102 ACOUSTIC SEEDING ...... 38 Keith J. Brown Michael P. Foster and John C. Pflaum
QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR AIRFLOW AND DROPLET TRAJECTORY MODEL CERTIFICATION BY THE WMA...... 103 TO DETERMINE SENSOR PLACEMENT ON CLOUD PHYSICS RESEARCH AIRCRAFT ...... 45 WMA OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES...... 105 M.M. Oleskiw, K.L. Grandia, R.C. Rudolph
WMA LIST OF PAST OFFICERS ...... 106 PREDICTION OF DROPLET TRAJECTORIES TO DETERMINE SENSOR PLACEMENT ON CLOUD WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION PHYSICS RESEARCH AIRCRAFT ...... OPERATORS AND MANAGERS - WMA HONORARY M.M. Oleskiw, K.L. Grandia, R.C. Rudolph MEMBERS ...... 107 QUANTITATIVE DIFFUSION ESTIMATES OF WMA AWARDS - SCHAEFER AWARD, CLOUD SEEDING NUCLEI RELEASED FROM THUNDERBIRD AWARD, BLACK CROW AWARD ..... 108 AIRBORNE GENERATORS...... 59 Abraham Gagin and Marcel Aroyo WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS ...... 109 - NON-REVIEWED SECTION -
WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - CORPORATE STATUS OF WEATHER MODIFICATION MEMBERS ...... 114 REGULATION IN CALIFORNIA ...... 71 Maurice Roos JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS - FEDERAL LIABILITY FOR NEGLIGENT 1984 ...... 115 MAINTENANCE OF WEATHER MODIFICATION EQUIPMENT ...... 72 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - 18 Ray Jay Davis AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS ...... 116 PRELIMINARY DATA ON REPORTED WEATHER ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES IN THE U.S. FOR CY - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - 1983 AND 1984 ...... 74 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION Harold A. Corzine
VOLUME 17 WEATHER MODIFICATION LAWS - U.S. AND Number 1 April 1985 CANADA...... 76
TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE WEATHER MODIFICATION STATE AND PROVINCIAL CONTACTS ...... 78 PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE...... vi Wilbur E. Brewer AN ABBREVIATED HISTORY OF THE WMA...... 81
- REVIEWED SECTION - ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE WMA...... 86
REPEATABILITY OF STRONG RESPONSES IN WMA STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS PRECIPITATION MANAGEMENT...... 1 FOR WMA OPERATORS...... 88 Clement J. Todd and Wallace E. Howell A NEW CERTIFICATION PROGRAM FOR THE WMA 90 UNEXPECTED EFFECTS OF CLOUD SEEDING Keith J. Brown WITH SILVER IODIDE...... 7 E.K. Bigg QUALIFICATIONS FOR PROCEDURES FOR CERTIFICATION BY THE WEATHER SELECTED TECHNIQUES FOR ASSESSING MODIFICATION ASSN...... 91 WEATHER MODIFICATION: TEXAS HAIL SUPPRESSION CASE ...... 18 WMA OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES ...... 93 Chin-Fei Hsu WMA LIST OF PAST OFFICERS...... 94 POTENTIAL BENEFITS TO AGRICULTURE OF AUGMENTING PRECIPITATION ...... 23 WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION S.E. Offutt, P. Garcia, M. Pinar OPERATORS AND MANAGERS - WMA HONORARY MEMBERS...... 95 SUPERCOOLED LIQUID WATER IN WINTER STORMS: A PRELIMINARY CLIMATOLOGY FOR WMA AWARDS - SCHAEFER AWARD, REMOTE SENSING OBSERVATIONS ...... 30 THUNDERBIRD AWARD, BLACK CROW AWARD..... 96 Kenneth Sassen
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 107
WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - INDIVIDUAL EXPERIMENT OF SUPERCOOLED FOG MEMBERS ...... 97 DISPERSAL AT SARAJEVO AIRPORT AND SKIING SLOPES OF THE 14TH WINTER WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - CORPORATE OLYMPIC GAMES...... 34 MEMBERS ...... 102 D. Milosevic, S. Bajic, Z. Radonjic, and N. Fukuta JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS - PRELIMINARY RADAR RESULTS FROM THE 1985 ...... 103 1984/85 SEEDING EXPERIMENT ...... 40 G.K. Mather and M.J. Dixon JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - 19 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS ...... 104 COMPARISON BETWEEN SEEDED AND UNSEEDED STORMS IN ALBACETE (SPAIN)...... 43 ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ J.L. Sanchez, A. Castro, M.L. Sanchez and - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - M. Davila WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION THE LIGHTNING TRIGGERING: A TECHNIQUE FOR VOLUME 18 ACTIVE PROTECTION OF A SITE...... 46 Number 1 April 1986 Paul Perroud and Andre Eybert-Berard
TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE WORLDWIDE EVALUATION FOR CREDIBILITY ...... 49 Clement J. Todd PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE...... vi R. Lynn Rose THE HAIL SUPPRESSION PROGRAM IN GREECE .. 51 Thomas J. Henderson SPECIAL NOTE - FIRST EUROPEAN CONFERENCE OF THE WMA ...... vii RESULTS OF AN EXPLORATORY EXPERIMENT John W. James WITHIN THE GREEK NATIONAL HAIL SUPPRESSION PROGRAM ...... 57 John A. Flueck, Mark E. Solak, and - REVIEWED SECTION - Theodore S. Karacostas
A PERSPECTIVE ON WEATHER MODIFICATION THE USE OF BIPLOTS TO EVALUATE SPATIAL EVALUATION ...... 1 EFFECTS OF WEATHER MODIFICATION ...... 64
K. Ruben Gabriel and Division of A KIND OF SEEDING AGENT FOR DRAWING HIGH Biostatistics, Univ. of Rochester LIQUID WATER CONTENTS OFF CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS: REALITY OR NOTE? ...... 6 APPLICATION OF CONTACT-FREEZING NUCLEI IN R. Serpolay CONVECTIVE CLOUD SEEDING...... 70
N. Fukuta OBSERVATIONS CARRIED OUT IN AN
EQUATORIAL FOREST AFTER SILVER IODIDE PRECIPITATION GAUGE SITING FOR SEEDINGS FROM A GROUND GENERATOR ...... 10 EVALUATION OF AN OROGRAPHIC CLOUD G.J.R. Baudet, J. Dessens and J.P. Lacaux SEEDING DEMONSTRATION PROJECT IN THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS...... 75 STORM TYPING AND SEEDABILITY IN Gerard E. Klazura, Arlin B. Super, and OROGRAPHIC SNOW/RAIN AUGMENTATION IN Jonnie G. Medina THE SIERRA NEVADA OF CALIFORNIA ...... 14
John W. James THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF HAILPADS USING
A COMPUTERIZED VIDEO SCANNING SYSTEM...... 81 EVALUATION STUDIES OF LONG-TERM HAIL Thomas J. Henderson and Rand B. Allan DAMAGE REDUCTION PROGRAMS IN NORTH
DAKOTA ...... 17 MIDWESTERN CONVECTIVE CLOUDS: A R.L. Rose and T.C. Jameson REVIEW...... 87
Bernice Ackerman and Nancy E. Westcott GROUND SEEDING: A VERY POWERFUL
TECHNOLOGY FOR THE FUTURE OF HAIL SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF RADAR FIRST SUPPRESSION ...... 21 ECHOES IN THE HIGH PLAINS ...... 95 P. Admirat and R. Caponigro James R. Miller, Jr., and Paul L. Smith
THE VALUE OF EXAMINING ECONOMIC IMPACTS WINTERTIME CHARACTERISTICS OF OF WINTER CLOUD SEEDING ...... 25 SUPERCOOLED LIQUID WATER OVER THE Barbara C. Welles GRAND MESA OF WESTERN COLORADO ...... 102
Bruce A. Boe and Arlin B. Super THE ITALO-YUGOSLAV ANTI-HAIL DEFENSE ...... 28
Fedrico Primozic and Domenico Vento AIRCRAFT PENETRATIONS OF SWISS
HAILSTORMS -- AN UPDATE ...... 108 RELIABLE VERIFICATION METHODS IN HAIL Dennis J. Musil and Paul L. Smith PREVENTION...... 30
W.A. Muller
108 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
THE THEMATIC DIMENSION IN WEATHER HISTORIC AUTHOR INDEX FOR ALL PUBLISHED MODIFICATION, PAST AND FUTURE...... 112 PAPERS IN JWM VOL. 1, NO. 1, THROUGH VOL. Wallace E. Howell 18, NO. 1 ...... 177
COMMENTS ON TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER IN JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT WEATHER MODIFICATION ...... 117 INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS - Thomas J. Henderson 1986/87...... 180
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ WEATHER MODIFICATION, DROUGHT, AND - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - PUBLIC POLICY: A CASE HISTORY...... 119 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION W. Henry Lambright, Susan E. Sheehan - NON-REVIEWED SECTION - VOLUME 19 Number 1 April 1987 HOW CALIFORNIA HANDLED TWO WEATHER MODIFICATION PERMIT APPLICATIONS FROM TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE NEVADA, AN ADJOINING STATE ...... 127 Maurice Roos PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE ...... v Barbara C. Welles PRELIMINARY DATA ON REPORTED WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES IN THE U.S. FOR CY THE G.E. RESEARCH TEAM – 1985 ...... 129 40TH ANNIVERSARY ...... vi Harold A. Corzine - REVIEWED SECTION - WEATHER MODIFICATION LAWS - UNITED STATES AND CANADA...... 131 THE RISE AND FALL OF FEDERAL WEATHER MODIFICATION POLICY ...... 1 AN ABBREVIATED HISTORY OF THE WEATHER Stanley A. Changnon, Jr., W. Henry MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 134 Lambright
ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION IN ALBERTA...... 13 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 139 R.G. Humphries, M. English, J. Renick
WEATHER MODIFICATION CAPABILITY THREE RAINFALL AUGMENTATION PROGRAMS STATEMENT ...... 141 IN TEXAS ...... 25 Don A. Griffith WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOC. STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR WMA AN EVALUATION OF A WEST TEXAS CLOUD- OPERATORS...... 143 SEEDING PROGRAM ...... 30 Robert F. Riggio A NEW CERTIFICATION PROGRAM FOR THE WMA 145 Keith J. Brown WINTER OROGRAPHIC CLOUD SEEDING OVER THE KERN RIVER BASIN IN CALIFORNIA...... 36 QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR M.E. Solak, T.J. Henderson, R.B. Allan, and CERTIFICATION BY THE WMA...... 146 D.W. Duckering
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOC. OFFICERS WINTER OROGRAPHIC SEEDING OVER THE AND COMMITTEES...... 148 KAWEAH RIVER BASIN IN CALIFORNIA ...... 41 M.E. Solak, T.J. Henderson, R.B. Allan, WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION LIST OF D.W. Duckering PAST OFFICERS...... 149 RESULTS OF HAIL SUPPRESSION EFFORTS IN WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION NORTH DAKOTA AS SHOWN BY CROP HAIL 45 OPERATORS AND MANAGERS - WMA HONORARY INSURANCE DATA...... MEMBERS ...... 150 James R. Miller, Jr., Michael J. Fuhs
WMA AWARDS - SCHAEFER AWARD, SOME HISTORIC OPERATIONAL HAIL THUNDERBIRD AWARD, BLACK CROW AWARD ..... 151 SUPPRESSION PROGRAMS DATING TO 1957 ...... 50 Thomas J. Henderson WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS ...... 152 FURTHER RESULTS ON NUMERICAL CLOUD SEEDING SIMULATIONS OF STRATIFORM-TYPE WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - CORPORATE CLOUDS...... 57 MEMBERS ...... 157 Harold D. Orville, John H. Hirsch, Richard D. Farley JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - 20 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS ...... 158 NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT IN STRATIFORM CLOUD ...... 62 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN JWM Hu Zhijin, Yan Caifan, Qin Yu, Wang Yu bin VOL. 1, NO. 1 THROUGH VOL. 18, NO. 1 ...... 159
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 109
CLIMATIC TRENDS OF SIERRA NEVADA CLOUD SCHAEFER AWARD, THUNDERBIRD AWARD, SEEDING POTENTIAL ...... 67 BLACK CROW AWARD ...... 132 Thomas F. Lee WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - INDIVIDUAL FEATHER RIVER BASIN CLOUD SEEDING MEMBERS...... 134 FEASIBILITY...... 73 H. Robert Swart, Don A. Griffith, WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - CORPORATE E. Bruce Jones MEMBERS...... 139
DESIGN OF THE 1986 ILLINOIS WEATHER JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - 21 MODIFICATION EXPERIMENT...... 77 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS...... 140 S. A. Changnon, Jr. and F.A. Huff HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN JWM SUMMARY OF SEVERAL RADAR ECHO STUDIES VOL. 1, NO. 1, THROUGH VOL. 19, NO. 1 ...... 141 FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION APPLICATION IN ILLINOIS ...... 82 HISTORIC AUTHOR INDEX FOR ALL PUBLISHED Floyd A. Huff PAPERS IN JWM VOL. 1, NO. 1 THROUGH VOL. 19, NO. 1 160 WINTERTIME SUPERCOOLED LIQUID WATER FLUX OVER THE GRAND MESA, COLORADO...... 92 JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT John R. Thompson and Arlin B. Super INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS - 1987/88...... 163 THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF DRY ICE, SOLID CO2 ...... 99 ADVERTISEMENTS Norihiko Fukuta ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ FOUR DECADES OF AMERICAN WEATHER - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - MODIFICATION LAW ...... 102 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION
- NON-REVIEWED SECTION - VOLUME 20 Number 1 April 1988 SUMMARY OF RESULTS FROM CLOUD SEEDING 107 RESEARCH IN ZIMBABWE ...... TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE J.E. Stevens MEMORIAL COMMENTS...... ii-ix A GENEROUS HELPING OF CROW ...... 109 Ray Jay Davis THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... x
NOTEWORTHY ADDITIONS...... 110 - REVIEWED SECTION -
HISTORIC QUOTATIONS ...... 111 WINTERTIME CLOUD LIQUID WATER OBSERVATIONS OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM OF WEATHER MODIFICATION LAWS - U.S. AND ARIZONA...... 1 CANADA ...... 112 Arlin B. Super and Bruce A. Boe
AN ABBREVIATED HISTORY OF THE WMA ...... 115 GROUND-BASED SUPERCOOLED LIQUID WATER MEASUREMENTS IN WINTER OROGRAPHIC ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE WMA ...... 120 CLOUDS...... 9 Mark E. Solak, Rand B. Allan and WEATHER MODIFICATION CAPABILITY Thomas J. Henderson STATEMENT ...... 122 THE BRIDGER RANGE, MONTANA, 1986-1987 WMA STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS SNOW PACK AUGMENTATION PROGRAM ...... 19 FOR WMA OPERATORS ...... 124 James A. Heimbach, Jr. and Arlin B. Super
THE CERTIFICATION PROGRAM FOR THE WMA .... 126 SEEDING PATH AND THE SEEDING START TIME Edward E. Hindman FOR THE HAIL SUPPRESSION ROCKETS...... 27 Nenad M. Aleksic and Zlato Vukovic QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR CERTIFICATION BY THE WMA...... 127 SOME RESULTS RELATED TO THE SUPPRESSION HAIL PROJECT IN ALBACETE...... 31 WMA OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES...... 129 J.L. Sanchez, M.L. Sanchez, A. Castro and M.C. Ramos WMA LIST OF PAST OFFICERS ...... 130 RADAR OBSERVATIONS OF WINTERTIME WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION MOUNTAIN CLOUDS OVER COLORADO AND OPERATORS AND MANAGERS - WMA HONORARY UTAH ...... 37 MEMBERS ...... 131 Lewis O. Grant and Robert M. Rauber
WMA AWARDS - INTERNATIONAL AWARD,
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COMPARISONS OF THE BEHAVIOR OF AgI-TYPE WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION ICE NUCLEATING AEROSOLS IN LABORATORY- 44 OPERATORS AND MANAGERS - WMA HONORARY SIMULATED CLOUDS...... MEMBERS...... 115 Paul J. DeMott WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION RAPID ICE NUCLEATION BY ACETONE-SILVER OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES ...... 116 IODIDE GENERATOR AEROSOLS ...... 51 William G. Finnegan and Richard L. Pitter WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION LIST OF PAST OFFICERS ...... 117 FIELD OBSERVATIONS OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN CLOUDS AT WARM WMA AWARDS - SCHAEFER AWARD, TEMPERATURES...... 54 INTERNATIONAL AWARD, THUNDERBIRD Richard L. Pitter and William G. Finnegan AWARD, BLACK CROW AWARD...... 118
USE OF UNIQUE FIELD FACILITIES TO SIMULATE WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - INDIVIDUAL EFFECTS OF ENHANCED RAINFALL ON CROP MEMBERS...... 120 PRODUCTION ...... 60 Stanley A. Changnon and Steven WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - CORPORATE E. Hollinger MEMBERS...... 125
EFFECTS OF ADDED SUMMER RAINFALL ON THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - 22 HYDROLOGIC CYCLE OF MIDWESTERN AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS...... 126 WATERSHEDS...... 67 H. Vernon Knapp, Ali Durgunglu and SPECIAL OFFER ON PAST JOURNAL ISSUES...... 128 Stanley A. Changnon HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN JWM A PRELIMINARY NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT IN VOL. 1, NO. 1, THROUGH VOL. 20, NO. 1 ...... 128 SIMULATING THE DISPERSION OF SF6 ...... 75 Fred J. Kopp HISTORIC AUTHOR INDEX FOR ALL PUBLISHED PAPERS IN JWM VOL. 1, NO. 1, THROUGH VOL. THE JUNE 1972 BLACK HILLS FLOOD AND THE 20, NO. 1 ...... 148 LAW ...... 82 Ray Jay Davis JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT INFORMA- TION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS - 1988/89 ...... 151 - NON-REVIEWED SECTION - ADVERTISEMENTS REPORTED WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATIONS IN THE U.S...... 88 ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - CALIFORNIA WEATHER MODIFICATION WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION PROJECTS 1987-88...... 92 VOLUME 21 NOTEWORTHY ADDITIONS...... 93 Number 1 April 1989
HISTORIC QUOTATIONS ...... 95 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE
WEATHER MODIFICATION LAWS - UNITED THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... iv STATES AND CANADA...... 97 PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE ...... v AN ABBREVIATED HISTORY OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 101 - REVIEWED SECTION -
ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE A NOTE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEDING FIRE- WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 106 INDUCED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ...... 1 Edmond W. Holroyd III and Arlin B. Super WEATHER MODIFICATION CAPABILITY STATEMENT ...... 108 THE NUMERICAL MODELING OF ICE-PHASE CLOUD SEEDING EFFECTS IN A WARM-BASE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOC. STATEMENT CLOUD: PRELIMINARY RESULTS ...... 4 ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR WMA H.D. Orville, F.J. Kopp, R.D. Farley, and OPERATORS...... 110 R.B. Hoffman
THE CERTIFICATION PROGRAM FOR THE PRELIMINARY EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION OF WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 112 SNOWMAXTM SNOW INDUCER, PSEUDOMONAS Edward E. Hindman SYRINGAE, AS AN ARTIFICIAL ICE NUCLEUS FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION...... 9 QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR Patrick J. Ward and Paul J. DeMott CERTIFICATION BY THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 113
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 111
EVALUATION OF A 2-MONTH COOPERATIVE WEATHER MODIFICATION CAPABILITY GROUND-BASED SILVER IODIDE SEEDING STATEMENT...... 115 PROGRAM...... 14 David W. Reynolds, James H. Humphries WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOC. STATEMENT and Richard H. Stone ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR WMA OPERATORS ...... 117 DESIGN OF A GROUND BASED SNOWPACK ENHANCEMENT PROGRAM USING LIQUID QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR PROPANE...... 29 CERTIFICATION BY THE WEATHER David W. Reynolds MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... 119
TEMPORAL VARIATIONS OF CLOUD LIQUID WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION WATER DURING WINTER STORMS OVER THE OPERATORS AND MANAGERS - WMA HONORARY MOGOLLON RIM OF ARIZONA ...... 35 MEMBERS...... 121 Arlin B. Super and Edmond W. Holroyd III WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION AN EFFICIENT, FAST FUNCTIONING NUCLEATING OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES ...... 122 AGENT - AgI•AgCl-4NaCl...... 41 Feng Daxiong and William G. Finnegan WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION LIST OF 123 PAST OFFICERS ...... OBSERVATIONS OF LIQUID WATER PERSISTENCE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ICE WMA AWARDS - SCHAEFER AWARD, IN OKLAHOMA CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...... 46 INTERNATIONAL AWARD, THUNDERBIRD Michael R. Poellot and John C. Pflaum AWARD, BLACK CROW AWARD...... 124
PRELIMINARY INVESTIGATIONS OF A DYNAMIC WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - INDIVIDUAL SEEDING STRATEGY FOR OKLAHOMA MEMBERS...... 126 CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...... 54 John C. Pflaum, Howard L. Johnson, and WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY - CORPORATE Michael R. Poellot MEMBERS...... 131
PROJECTION ONTO GROUND RAINFALL JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - 23 DISTRIBUTIONS OF EFFECTS OF SEEDING AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS...... 132 CONVECTIVE CLOUDCELLS...... 62 Arie Ben-Zvi HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN JWM VOL. 1., NO. 1, THROUGH VOL. 21, NO. 1 ...... 133 HAIL GROWTH PROCESSES IN AN ALBERTA HAILSTORM ...... 65 HISTORIC AUTHOR INDEX FOR ALL PUBLISHED Dennis J. Musil and Paul L. Smith PAPERS IN JWM VOL. 1, NO. 1, THROUGH VOL. 21, NO. 1 ...... 154 ON THE OPTIMAL LENGTH OF THE HAIL SUPPRESSION SEASON ...... 73 JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT N.M. Aleksic, N. Djordjevic and J. Malisic INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS - 1989/90...... 158 EFFECTIVENESS OF HAIL CONTROL IN SERBIA .... 75 Djuro Radinovic ADVERTISEMENTS
RECENT PROGRESS AND NEEDS IN OBTAINING ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ PHYSICAL EVIDENCE FOR WEATHER - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - MODIFICATION POTENTIALS AND EFFECTS...... 85 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION Roger F. Reinking and Rebecca J. Meitin VOLUME 22 PAWS RESTRUCTURED...... 94 Number 1 April 1990 R.C. Grosh TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE - NON-REVIEWED SECTION - THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... v CALIFORNIA WEATHER MODIFICATION PROJECTS 1988-89 PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE ...... vi
HISTORIC QUOTATIONS ...... 101 THE PATRICK SQUIRES LIBRARY OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES...... vii WEATHER MODIFICATION LAWS - UNITED STATES AND CANADA...... 103 - REVIEWED SECTION -
AN ABBREVIATED HISTORY OF THE WEATHER RADAR RESULTS OF THE 1986 EXPLORATORY MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 107 FIELD PROGRAM RELATING TO THE DESIGN AND EVALUATION OF PACE ...... 1 ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE Nancy Westcott WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 113
112 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
A HIGH ALTITUDE GROUND-BASED CLOUD ATMOSPHERIC TESTS OF AN ORGANIC SEEDING EXPERIMENT CONDUCTED IN NUCLEANT IN A SUPERCOOLED FOG ...... 127 SOUTHERN UTAH ...... 18 William A. Woodley and Arlen W. Huggins and Ken Sassen Thomas J. Henderson
RESULTS OF OPERATIONAL SEEDING OVER THE SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF AERIALLY- WATERSHED OF SAN ANGELO, TEXAS ...... 30 RELEASED AgI PLUMES IN ALBERTA ...... 133 William L. Woodley and Mark E. Solak James A. Heimbach, Jr.
AIRBORNE OBSERVATIONS OF A SUMMERTIME, THE USES OF CLOUD MODELS IN WEATHER GROUND-BASED TRACER GAS RELEASE...... 43 MODIFICATION...... 137 Don A. Griffith, George W. Wilkerson, Harold D. Orville and Dan A. Risch A STATE PERSPECTIVE ON THE DEVELOPMENT A STUDY OF RADAR ECHO CLUSTERS OVER OF WEATHER MODIFICATION: THE CASE OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...... 49 ILLINOIS...... 143 L. Ronald Johnson and Mark R. Hjelmfelt W. Henry Lambright
CROP YIELD RESULTS FROM SIMULATED RAIN - NON-REVIEWED SECTION - APPLICATIONS TO AGRICULTURAL PLOTS IN ILLINOIS ...... 58 TIME FOR A CHANGE...... 152 Stanley A. Changnon and Vincent J. Schaefer Steven E. Hollinger PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIMENTS OF ICE CRYSTAL BREEDING...... 63 SNOMAXTM ON CUMULUS MEDIOCRIS CLOUDS Richard L. Pitter and William G. Finnegan TO ARTIFICIALLY INDUCE THE PRODUCTION OF ICE PARTICLES...... 153 SOME COMMENTS ON THE GROSSVERSUCH IV James A. Jung and Snomax Technologies HAIL SUPPRESSION EXPERIMENT...... 69 Djuro Radinovic A REPORT ON THE CONFERENCE ON THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OF CLOUD THE APPLICATION OF GEOSTATIONARY SEEDING IN THE BLACK HILLS...... 158 SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR DECISION-MAKING IN Harold D. Orville CONVECTIVE CLOUD SEEDING IN NORTH DAKOTA ...... 73 CALIFORNIA WEATHER MODIFICATION Bruce A. Boe and James A. Jung PROJECTS 1989-90 ...... 163
ONE EVIDENCE OF THE HAIL SUPPRESSION A SUMMARY OF WEATHER MODIFICATION EFFICIENCY DERIVED FROM RADAR ACTIVITIES REPORTED IN THE UNITED STATES MEASUREMENTS...... 79 DURING 1988 WITH TRENDS FROM 1978 ...... 164 Mladjen Curic CURRENT AMERICAN AND CANADIAN WEATHER ON THE DAMAGE REDUCTION IN BULGARIAN MODIFICATION REGULATION ...... 168 AND HUNGARIAN HAIL SUPPRESSION PROJECTS 82 Marko Tamas and Petio Simeonov LETTER - JIM WILSON TO V. SCHAEFER - 1951...... 172
DENSITY OF HAIL SUPPRESSION ROCKET C.W. POST ARTICLE IN HARPER’S WEEKLY FEB. NETWORK...... 90 1912 ...... 174 Zlatko Vukovic and Nenad Aleksic HISTORIC QUOTATIONS...... 175 A SOURCE OF DATA FOR HAIL SUPPRESSION STUDIES...... 94 AN ABBREVIATED HISTORY OF THE WEATHER Roger K. Sandness MODIFICATION ASSOC...... 177
ANALYSIS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE STORMS LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE EBRO VALLEY WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOC...... 184 (SPAIN): PREPARATION FOR A NEW STAGE OF HAIL SUPPRESSION ...... 98 WEATHER MODIFICATION CAPABILITY J.L. Sanchez and A. Castro STATEMENT...... 187
WINTER OROGRAPHIC CLOUD SEEDING STATUS WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ...... 106 STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR Arlin B. Super WMA OPERATORS ...... 188
SEEDING SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR TO INCREASE BLACK HILLS RAINFALL...... 117 CERTIFICATION BY THE WMA ...... 190 A.S. Dennis WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS AND MANAGERS, WMA HONORARY MEMBERS...... 192
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 113
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION SEASONAL PRECIPITATION EFFECTS OF HAIL OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES...... 193 SUPPRESSION IN SERBIA...... 43 Nenad Aleksic and Elvira Brankov WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION LIST OF PAST OFFICERS...... 194 RESP0NSE OF CORN YIELD COMPONENTS TO SIMULATED PRECIPITATION AUGMENTATION...... 45 WMA AWARDS - THUNDERBIRD AWARD, BLACK Steven E. Hollinger and CROW AWARD, SCHAEFER AWARD, Stanley A. Changnon INTERNATIONAL AWARD ...... 195 DESIGN AND FIELD TESTING OF A REMOTE WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY INDIVIDUAL AND GROUND-BASED LIQUID PROPANE CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... 197 DISPENSER...... 49 David W. Reynolds JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - 24 AVAILABLE Publications ...... 203 CLOUD MERGING AND SEEDING EFFICIENCY...... 54 R.C.Grosh HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN JWM VOL. 1, NO. 1, THROUGH VOL. 22, NO. 1 ...... 205 A NETWORK OF HAILPADS IN SPAIN...... 56 Roberto Fraile, Jose L. Sanchez HISTORIC AUTHOR INDEX FOR ALL PUBLISHED Jose L. de la Madrid, Amaya Castro PAPERS IN JWM VOL. 1, NO. 1, THROUGH VOL. 22, NO. 1...... 227 BLACK CLOUDS AND SILVER IODIDE: PUBLIC SAFETY AND WEATHER MODIFICATION LAW ...... 63 JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT Ray Jay Davis INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS - 1990/91 ...... 231 - IN RETROSPECT -
ADVERTISEMENTS EARLY DISCOVERIES ...... 67 Vincent J. Schaefer ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - A FEW THOUGHTS ON “THE BEGINNING” ...... 68 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION William A. “Bill” Lang
VOLUME 23 INCREASED INTEREST IN WEATHER Number 1 April 1991 MODIFICATION...... 69 Thomas J. Henderson
TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS IN WEATHER
MODIFICATION DURING THE 1954-1955 THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... v SEASON...... 72 PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE...... vi
RETROSPECTIVE THOUGHTS ON THE WMA EDITOR’S NOTE – A FAREWELL...... vii AND THE ENVIRONMENT ...... 74 Thomas J. Henderson Robert D. Elliott
EULOGY: DR. PATRICK SQUIRES (1914-1990)...... viii WEATHER MODIFICATION REMEMBRANCES...... 76
Lewis O. Grant - REVIEWED SECTION -
HISTORIC QUOTATIONS...... 77 A PRELIMINARY APPRAISAL OF THE NATURAL Assembled by Thomas J. Henderson STRUCTURE AND SEEDABILITY OF UPDRAFTS IN
MIDWESTERN CUMULUS AT THE –10°C LEVEL...... 1 - NON-REVIEWED SECTION - Robert R. Czys
TEACHING WEATHER MODIFICATION IN LOWER THE SIMULATION OF CLOUD SEEDING EFFECTS DIVISION UNIVERSITY/COLLEGE CLASSES...... 83 USING NUMERICAL CLOUD MODELS...... 17 John James Harold D. Orville, Richard D. Farley,
and Fred J. Kopp THE YEAR 2031 – A LOOK INTO THE FUTURE –
WEATHER MODIFICATION AND THE WEATHER A WINTER CLOUD SEEDING PROGRAM IN MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION 40 YEARS UTAH ...... 27 NOW FROM ...... 86 Don A. Griffith, John R. Thompson John James and Dan A. Risch
THE MASTER RAINMAKER – DONALD DUCK A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL HAIL STORY ...... 90 SUPPRESSION EFFORTS IN SOUTH DAKOTA Edward Hindman USING CROP-HAIL INSURANCE DATA...... 35
Roger K. Sandness
114 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
A SUMMARY OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - REVIEWED SECTION - ACTIVITIES REPORTED IN THE UNITED STATES DURING 1989 ...... 101 OBJECTIVE FORECASTING OF SOME INDIVIDUAL William H. Blackmore III and CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS IN THE 1989 ILLINOIS Shawn P. Bennett CLOUD SEEDING EXPERIMENT...... 1 Robert W. Scott and Robert R. Czys CLOUD SEEDING IN CALIFORNIA ...... 104 INITIAL RESULTS FROM THE 1989 CLOUD CURRENT AMERICAN AND CANADIAN WEATHER SEEDING EXPERIMENT IN ILLINOIS...... 13 MODIFICATION REGULATION...... 105 Robert R. Czys, Stanley A. Changnon, Mary Schoen Petersen, Robert W. Scott AN ABBREVIATED HISTORY OF THE WEATHER and Nancy E. Westcott MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 109 INVESTIGATIONS OF THE TARGETING OF ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE GROUND-RELEASED SILVER IODIDE IN UTAH. WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 116 PART I: GROUND OBSERVATIONS OF SILVER-IN- WEATHER MODIFICATION CAPABILITY SNOW AND ICE NUCLEI...... 19 STATEMENT ...... 119 Arlin Super and Arlen W. Huggins
STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR INVESTIGATIONS OF THE TARGETING OF WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSN. OPERATORS...... 120 GROUND-RELEASED SILVER IODIDE IN UTAH. PART II: AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS...... 35 QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR Arlin Super and Arlen W. Huggins CERTIFICATION BY THE WMA...... 122 OBSERVATIONS OF GROUND RELEASED WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION SULFUR HEXAFLUORIDE TRACER GAS PLUMES OPERATORS AND MANAGERS, WMA HONORARY IN TWO UTAH WINTER STORMS ...... 49 MEMBERS ...... 124 Don A. Griffith, George W. Wilkerson, William J. Hauze and Dan A. Risch WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES...... 125 ON THE CLOUD SEEDING POTENTIAL OF THE BLACK HILLS...... 66 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION LIST OF Harold D. Orville and James R. Miller PAST OFFICERS...... 126 OPTICAL REMOTE SENSING OF ICE IN CLOUDS ... 80 WMA AWARDS – THUNDERBIRD AWARD, BLACK P. Pilewskie and S. Twomey CROW AWARD, SCHAEFER AWARD, INTERNATIONAL AWARD ...... 127 MODEL SIMULATION OF SEEDING REPEAT RATES FOR DIRECT INJECTION SEEDING BY WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY – INDIVIDUAL ROCKETS ...... 84 AND CORPORATE MEMBERS...... 129 Nenad Aleksic, Bosko Telenta and S. Petkovic JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION – 25 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS ...... 135 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE VISUAL APPEARANCES OF THAI SUPERCOOLED HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN JWM CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND THEIR MAXIMUM VOL. 1, NO. 1, THROUGH VOL. 23, NO. 1 ...... 137 CLOUD LIQUID WATER CONTENTS ...... 89 William L. Woodley and Jiemjai Kreasuwun HISTORIC AUTHOR INDEX FOR ALL PUBLISHED PAPERS IN JWM, VOL. 1, NO. 1, THROUGH VOL. 160 A TARGET-CONTROL ANALYSIS OF WHEAT YIELD 23, NO. 1...... DATA FOR THE NORTH DAKOTA CLOUD MODIFICATION PROJECT REGION...... 98 JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT Paul L. Smith, L. Ronald Johnson, INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS – David L. Priegnitz and Paul W. Mielke, Jr. 1991/92 ...... 164 LIMITS ON GLOBAL WARMING...... 106 ADVERTISEMENTS A.S. Dennis
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ - NON-REVIEWED SECTION - - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION WHERE DOES WEATHER MODIFICATION FIT VOLUME 24 WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES?...... 118 Stanley A. Changnon Number 1 April 1992 WEATHER MODIFICATION LAW AS A PROTOTYPE TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE FOR LEGAL CONTROL OF INADVERTENT WEATHER AND CLIMATE THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... iv CHANGE ...... 122 Ray Jay Davis PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE/EDITOR’S MESSAGE ...... v
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 115
LEGAL REGULATION OF WEATHER NOTES FROM THE WILBUR E. BREWER MODIFICATION IN THE UNITED STATES AND APPRECIATION/RETIREMENT DINNER...... vi CANADA ...... 126 WMO STATEMENT ON THE STATUS OF A SUMMARY OF WEATHER MODIFICATION WEATHER MODIFICATION...... 1 ACTIVITIES REPORTED IN THE UNITED STATES DURING 1990 ...... 130 PLANNED AND INADVERTENT WEATHER William H. Blackmore III MODIFICATION...... 7
-WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION- WEATHER MODIFICATION CAPABILITY -GENERAL INFORMATION- STATEMENT...... 11
ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION – WEATHER - REVIEWED SECTION - MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 132 EVALUATION OF ECHO CORE RESPONSES IN WEATHER MODIFICATION CAPABILITY THE 1989 ILLINOIS EXPLORATORY CLOUD STATEMENT – WEATHER MODIFICATION SEEDING EXPERIMENT USING A SEEDABILITY ASSOCIATION...... 135 INDEX ...... 12 Robert R. Czys, Stanley A. Changnon, STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR Nancy E. Westcott, Mary Schoen Petersen WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS – and Robert W. Scott WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 136 RESULTS OF THE 1989 EXPLORATORY CLOUD SEEDING EXPERIMENT IN ILLINOIS BASED ON QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR SYNOPTIC WEATHER CONDITIONS...... 26 CERTIFICATION – WEATHER MODIFICATION N.E. Westcott, S.A. Changnon, Jr., ASSOCIATION...... 138 R.R. Czys, R.W. Scott and M.S. Petersen WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE CLOUD OPERATORS/MANAGERS AND HONORARY SEEDING OF A WARM BASE ILLINOIS MEMBERS ...... 140 CONVECTIVE CLOUD WITH AND WITHOUT ICE MULTIPLICATION ACTIVE ...... 50 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION Harold D. Orville, Fred J. Kopp OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES – 1991-92 ...... 141 Richard D. Farley, and Robert R. Czys
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION AN EVALUATION OF HAIL SUPPRESSION CLOUD AWARDS ...... 142 SEEDING EFFECTS ON FREQUENCIES OF WEATHER PHENOMENA IN SERBIA...... 57 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION – Djuro Radinovic INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS...... 144 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF INCREASED WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION – 149 RUNOFF FROM ADDITIONAL HIGH ELEVATION CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... SNOWFALL IN THE UPPER COLORADO RIVER BASIN ...... 74 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION – Arlin B. Super and Jack T. McPartland 27 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS ...... 150 RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN STORM TOTAL SPECIAL OFFER ON PAST JOURNAL ISSUES ...... 153 SUPERCOOLED LIQUID WATER FLUX AND PRECIPITATION ON FOUR MOUNTAIN HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN JWM BARRIERS ...... 82 VOL. 1, NO. 1, THROUGH VOL. 24, NO. 1 ...... 153 Arlin B. Super and Arlen W. Huggins
JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT THE AFTERMATH OF THE 1972 RAPID CITY INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS – FLOOD ...... 93 1992/93 ...... 158 Arnett S. Dennis
ADVERTISEMENTS - NON-REVIEWED SECTION -
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦- DESCRIPTION OF FIRST NATIONAL RAIN -THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - ENHANCEMENT PROJECT (FINREP) WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION IN ISTANBUL...... 104 Ismail Gultepe VOLUME 25 Number 1 April 1993 A SUMMARY OF WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVITIES REPORTED IN THE UNITED STATES TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE DURING 1991...... 107 William H. Blackmore III THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... iv
PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE/EDITOR’S MESSAGE ...... v
116 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
-WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION- OS SUPERCOOLED LIQUID WATER, -GENERAL INFORMATION- PRECIPITATION AND SILVER IODIDE ON UTAH’S WASATCH PLATEAU...... 19 ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE Arlin B. Super WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 109 ESTIMATION OF EFFECTIVE AgI ICE NUCLEI STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR BY TWO METHODS COMPARED WITH WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS ...... 112 MEASURED ICE PARTICLE CONCENTRATIONS IN SEEDED OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS...... 33 QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR Arlin B. Super and Edmond W. Holroyd III CERTIFICATION...... 114 A REVIEW OF HYGROSCOPIC SEEDING WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION EXPERIMENTS TO ENHANCE RAINFALL ...... 41 OPERATORS/MANAGERS AND HONORARY Robert R. Czys and Roelof Bruintjes MEMBERS ...... 116 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF THE OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES...... 117 1984-1988 SEEDING EXPERIMENT IN NORTHERN GREECE ...... 53 WMA AWARDS – THUNDERBIRD AWARD, BLACK R.C. Rudolph, C.M. Sackiw and G.T. Riley CROW AWARD, SCHAEFER AWARD, INTERNATIONAL AWARD ...... 118 TESTING OF DYNAMIC COLD-CLOUD SEEDING CONCEPTS IN THAILAND. PART 1: WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY – INDIVIDUAL EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND ITS AND CORPORATE MEMBERS...... 120 IMPLEMENTATION...... 61 William L. Woodley, Daniel Rosenfeld, Warawut Khantiyanan, Wathana JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION – Sukarnjanaset, Prinya Sudhikoses and 27 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS ...... 126 Ronit Nirel
HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN THE TESTING OF DYNAMIC COLD-CLOUD SEEDING JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION CONCEPTS IN THAILAND. PART II: RESULTS VOL. 19, NO. 1, (Apr 1987) THROUGH OF ANALYSES...... 72 VOL. 24, NO. 1 (Apr 1992)...... 128 Daniel Rosenfeld, William L. Woodley Warawut Khantiyanan, Wathana JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT Sukarnjanaset, Prinya Sudhikoses and INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS – Ronit Nirel 1993/94 ...... 135 CRITERIA TO INSTALL AND TO MAKE USE OF A ADVERTISEMENTS REMOTE GROUND GENERATOR NETWORK IN LEON (SPAIN)...... 83 ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ J.L. Sanchez, A. Castro, J.L. Marcos, - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - M.T. De la Fuente and R. Fraile WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECT OF ICE NUCLEI VOLUME 26 FROM A CEMENT PLANT ON DOWNWIND Number 1 April 1994 PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA...... 89 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE Daryl V. O’Dowd
THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... v ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES OF HAIL PERIODS IN SERBIA ...... 98 PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE and EDITOR’S Djuro Radinovic MESSAGE ...... vi THE NORTH DAKOTA TRACER EXPERIMENT: VINCENT J. SCHAEFER – TRACER APPLICATIONS IN A COOPERATIVE A REMEMBRANCE ...... vii THUNDERSTORM RESEARCH PROGRAM ...... 102 Bruce A. Boe
- REVIEWED SECTION - NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF CLOUD
SEEDING USING A THREE-DIMENSIONAL APPLICATIONS OF THE CLARK MODEL CLOUD MODEL ...... 113 TO WINTER STORMS OVER THE Richard D. Farley, Phuong Nguyen WASATCH PLATEAU...... 1 and Harold D. Orville James A. Heimbach, Jr., and William D. Hall
COMPARISON OF CLOUD TOWER AND FURTHER ANALYSIS OF A SNOWPACK UPDRAFT RADII WITH THEIR INTERNAL AUGMENTATION PROGRAM USING TEMPERATURE EXCESSES RELATIVE TO LIQUID PROPANE...... 12 THEIR ENVIRONMENTS...... 125 David W. Reynolds William L. Woodley, Eyal Amitai
and Daniel Rosenfeld IMPLICATIONS OF EARLY 1991 OBSERVATIONS
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 117
- NON-REVIEWED SECTION - - REVIEWED SECTION -
A SUMMARY OF WEATHER MODIFICATION COMPARATIVE CHARACTERIZATIONS OF THE ACTIVITIES REPORTED IN THE UNITED ICE NUCLEUS ABILITY OF AgI AEROSOLS STATES DURING 1992...... 129 BY THREE METHODS...... 1 William H. Blackmore II
ON THE CONSUMPTION OF AgI SEEDING TWO SCHAEFER PHOTOS BY WARD – AGENT: DEPENDENCE OF THE LIQUID WATER “WARD REMEMBERS” ...... 131 CONTENT IN THE SEEDING ZONE ...... 17
Mladjen Curic and Dejan Janc - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION -
GENERAL INFORMATION OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT OF HAIL SUPPRESSION FOR AGRICULTURE ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE IN GREECE...... 21 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... 133 N.R. Dalezios and S.I. Spanos
STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL SIMULATION OF FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS...... 136 AgI SEEDING WITH A WINTER STORM OVER UTAH’S WASATCH PLATEAU ...... 36 QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES Edmond W. Holroyd III, James A. FOR CERTIFICATION...... 138 Heimbach and Arlin B. Super
WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION CASE STUDIES OF MICROPHYSICAL OPERATORS/MANAGERS AND HONORARY RESPONSES TO VALLEY-RELEASED MEMBERS...... 140 OPERATIONAL AgI SEEDING OF THE WASATCH PLATEAU, UTAH ...... 57 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION Arlin B. Super OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES ...... 141 A STATUS REPORT ON LIQUID PROPANE WMA AWARDS – THUNDERBIRD AWARD, DISPENSER TESTING IN UTAH WITH BLACK CROW AWARD, SCHAEFER AWARD, EMPHASIS ON A FULLY-AUTOMATED INTERNATIONAL AWARD...... 142 SEEDING SYSTEM...... 84 Arlin B. Super, Erick Faatz, Arlen J. Hilton, WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTOR – INDIVIDUAL V. Clark Ogden and Roger D. Hansen AND CORPORATE MEMBERS...... 144
- NON-REVIEWED SECTION - JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION –
28 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS ...... 150 CLOUD SEEDING AND ATMOSPHERIC
TRACER PROGRAM CONDUCTED IN THE HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN TSENGWEN RESERVOIR AREA OF TAIWAN JWM VOL. 20, NO. 1 (Apr 1988) THROUGH DURING THE 1992 MEI-YU SEASON...... 94 VOL. 26, NO. 1 (Apr 1993)...... 152 Jack Ming-Sen Lin and Paul Tai-Kuang
Chiou, Don A. Griffith, George W. JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT Wilkerson and Mark E. Solak INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA
MEETINGS – 1994/95 ...... 159 THE NOAA ATMOSPHERIC MODIFICATION
PROGRAM – A 1995 UPDATE ...... 99 AUTHOR’S GUIDE ...... 160 Joseph H. Golden
ADVERTISEMENTS A SUMMARY OF WEATHER MODIFICATION
ACTIVITIES REPORTED IN THE UNITED STATES ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ DURING 1993 ...... 110 - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - Joseph H. Golden WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - VOLUME 27 GENERAL INFORMATION Number 1 April 1995 ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 113
THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... iv STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS...... 116 PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE and EDITOR’S MESSAGE ...... vii QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES George Bomar and James R. Miller FOR CERTIFICATION ...... 118
IN MEMORY OF LAWRENCE “BUD” YOUNGREN ..... ix
118 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION HAIL SUPPRESSION SEEDING IN SERBIA...... 35 OPERATORS/MANAGERS AND D. Radinovic and D. Banjevic HONORARY MEMBERS ...... 120 CALIFORNIA CLOUD SEEDING AND IDAHO WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION PRECIPITATION ...... 39 OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES ...... 121 J.G. MacCracken and J. O’Laughlin
WMA AWARDS – THUNDERBIRD AWARD, BLACK VARIATIONS IN CONTRAIL MORPHOLOGY AND CROW AWARD, SCHAEFER AWARD, RELATIONSHIP TO ATMOSPHERIC ...... 50 INTERNATIONAL AWARD...... 122 David J. Travis
WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY – INDIVIDUAL CLIMATOLOGICAL AND MICROPHYSICAL CLOUD AND CORPORATE MEMBERS...... 124 FEATURES TOWARDS RAIN ENHANCEMENT FOR AGRICULTURE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION – IN GREECE...... 59 29 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS ...... 130 N.R. Dalezios, S.I. Spanos, N. Papamanolis, and T.W. Krauss HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION, SOME POTENTIAL ERRORS IN THE VOL. 22, NO. 1 (Apr 1990) THROUGH IDENTIFICATION OF HAIL SWATHS AND SEEDED VOL. 26, NO. 1 (Apr 1994)...... 132 STORMS ...... 75 Jose L. Sanchez, Roberto Fraile, Amaya JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT Castro, Maria T. de la Fuente and INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA Jose L. Marcos MEETINGS – 1995/96 ...... 138 - NON-REVIEWED SECTION - AUTHOR’S GUIDE ...... 139 CHANGING PERCEPTIONS OF THE ISRAELI ADVERTISEMENTS WEATHER MODIFICATION PROGRAM...... 83 Arnett S. Dennis TO COMMEMORATE THE RETIREMENT OF RAY JAY DAVIS ...... IMPLICATIONS FROM THE NORTH DAKOTA (The end of the “tale: - or “trail” – or is it a TRACER EXPERIMENT OF 1993 FOR THE new beginning??) GLACIOGENIC SEEDING OF SUPERCOOLED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO SUPPRESS HAIL...... 86 ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ Mark Bloomer and Andrew G. Detwiler - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - GENERAL INFORMATION VOLUME 28 Number 1 April 1996 ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 92 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR THE WEATHER MODIFICATION...... iv WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS...... 95
PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE AND EDITOR’S QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR MESSAGE ...... v CERTIFICATION ...... 97 Robert Czys and James R. Miller WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION - REVIEWED SECTION - OPERATORS/MANAGERS AND HONORARY MEMBERS ...... 99 HYDROMETEOR IDENTIFICATION WITH ELLIPTICAL POLARIZATION RADAR: WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION APPLICATIONS FOR GLACIOGENIC CLOUD OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES...... 100 SEEDING...... 6 Roger F. Reinking, Sergey Y. Matrosov, WMA AWARDS – THUNDERBIRD AWARD, BLACK and Roelof T. Bruintjes CROW AWARD, SCHAEFER AWARD, INTERNATIONAL AWARD ...... 101 THE ASSESSMENT OF SNOWPACK ENHANCEMENT BY SILVER IODIDE CLOUD- WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY – INDIVIDUAL SEEDING USING THE PHYSICS ...... 19 AND CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... 103 Joseph A. Warburton, Steven K. Chai Richard H. Stone and Lawrence G. Young JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION – 30 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS...... 110 EVIDENCE OF EFFECTIVENESS OF HYDROSCOPIC COLLECTOR EMBRYOS ...... 29 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN Albert H. Schnell and Wallace E. Howell THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION, VOL 23, NO. 1 (Apr 1991) THROUGH DEVELOPMENT OF IMPROVED CRITERIA FOR VOL 27, NO. 1 (Apr 1995) ...... 112
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 119
JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT AN APPLICATION OF HYCROSCOPIC FLARES – INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS – A SINGLE CASE STUDY...... 90 1996/97 ...... 118 Thomas J. Henderson, James M. Wood, and David L. Newsom AUTHOR’S GUIDE ...... 119 AN UPDATE ON A WINTER CLOUD SEEDING ADVERTISEMENTS PROGRAM IN UTAH...... 95 Don A. Griffith, John R. Thompson, ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ Dan A. Risch, and Mark E. Solak - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION THE NEW ALBERTA HAIL SUPPRESSION PROJECT...... 100 VOLUME 29 Terry W. Krauss and Jim Renick Number 1 April 1997 AN OVERVIEW OF THE ACTIVITIES ON CLOUD TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE SEEDING EXPERIMENT IN KOREA...... 106 Sung-Gil Hong and Won-Geun Eom THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... iv THE 1996-97 OKLAHOMA WEATHER PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE and MODIFICATION PROGRAM...... 108 EDITOR’S MESSAGE ...... v Brian R. Vance and Michael E. Mathis Dennis Sundie and James R. Miller HISTORIC QUOTATIONS ON EVALUATIONS OF IN MEMORIUM – Dr. Bernard Vonnegut ...... vi CLOUD SEEDING PROGRAMS...... 114 Thomas Henderson - REVIEWED SECTION - - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - SOME PHYSICAL EVIDENCE OF AgI AND LIQUID GENERAL INFORMATION PROPANE SEEDING EFFECTS ON UTAH’S WASATCH PLATEAU...... 8 ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE Arlin B. Super and Edmond W. Holrody, III WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 120
MODELING AND OBSERVATION OF VALLEY – STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR RELEASED SILVER IODIDE DURING A STABLE WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS...... 123 WINTER STORM OVER THE WASATCH PLATEAU OF UTAH ...... 33 QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR James A. Heimbach, Jr., William D. Hall, and CERTIFICATION ...... 125 Arlin B. Super WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION NEW ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC OPERATORS/MANAGERS AND HONORARY IMPACTS FROM TEN WINTER SNOWPACK MEMBERS ...... 127 AUGMENTATION PROJECTS...... 42 Thomas J. Henderson WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES...... 128 NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF CLOUD SEEDING EFFECTS DURING A FOUR-DAY WMA AWARDS – THUNDERBIRD AWARD, BLACK STORM PERIOD ...... 49 CROW AWARD, SCHAEFER AWARD, Richard D. Farley, Dale L. Hjermstad, INTERNATIONAL AWARD ...... 129 and Harold D. Orville WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY – INDIVIDUAL CLOUD MICROPHYSICAL OBSERVATIONS OF AND CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... 131 RELEVANCE TO THE TEXAS COLD-CLOUD CONCEPTUAL SEEDING MODEL...... 56 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION – Daniel Rosenfeld and William L. Woodley 31 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS...... 136
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD DROP SIZE HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN DISTRIBUTION ON SIMULATED SEEDING THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION, EFFECTS OF HAIL-BEARING CLOUD...... 70 VOL 24, NO. 1 (Apr 1992) THROUGH M. Curic, D. Janc and V. Vuckovic VOL 28, NO. 1 (Apr 1996) ...... 138
EVIDENCE OF JET CONTRAIL INFLUENCES ON JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT REGIONAL-SCALE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS – RANGE ...... 74 1997/98...... 143 David J. Travis and Stanley A. Changnon AUTHOR’S GUIDE...... 144 THE USE OF CAPACITANCE TO DETECT ICING...... 84 Don Cripps and Ben Abbott ADVERTISEMENTS
- NON-REVIEWED SECTION - MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION…..Inside back cover
120 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - OPERATORS/MANAGERS AND HONORARY WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION MEMBERS ...... 98
VOLUME 30 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION Number 1 April 1998 OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES...... 99
TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE WMA AWARDS – THUNDERBIRD AWARD, BLACK CROW AWARD, SCHAEFER AWARD, THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... iv INTERNATIONAL AWARD ...... 100
PRESIDENT’S MESSSAGE and WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY – INDIVIDUAL EDITOR’S MESSAGE ...... v AND CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... 102 Richard Stone and James R. Miller JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION – IN MEMORIAM – GRAEME MATHER – 1934-1997 .... vi 32 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS...... 109 Paul L. Smith HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN - REVIEWED SECTION - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION, VOL 1, NO. 1 (March 1969) THROUGH A SIMPLIFIED CONCEPT OF HYGROSCOPIC VOL 29, NO. 1 (Apr 1997) ...... 111 SEEDING...... 7 Harold D. Orville, Chengshu Wang, JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT and Fred J. Kopp INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS – 1998/99...... 143 KEY VARIABLES TO ASSESS SEEDING OPERATIONS ON THE GREEK NATIONAL HAIL AUTHOR’S GUIDE...... 149 SUPPRESSION PROGRAM...... 22 Michalis V. Sioutas and Randy C. Rudolph ADVERTISEMENTS
FORMATION OF DROPLETS IN A MARINE MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION…Inside Back Cover STRATOCUMULUS LAYER CONTAINING A SHIP- PLUME...... 30 ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ Edward E. Hindman - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION MODELING OF AgI TARGETING EFFECTIVENESS FOR FIVE GENERALIZED WEATHER CLASSES IN VOLUME 31 UTAH 35 Number 1 April 1999 James A. Heimbach, Jr., Arlin B. Super and William D. Hall TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE
EXPERIMENTS WITH PULSED SEEDING BY AgI THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... iv AND LIQUID PROPANE IN SLIGHTLY SUPERCOOLED WINTER OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS PRESIDENT’S MESSSAGE and OVER UTAH’S WASATCH PLATEAU ...... 51 EDITOR’S MESSAGE...... v Edmond W. Holroyd III and Arlin B. Super Roger Reinking and James R. Miller
- NON-REVIEWED SECTION - IN MEMORIAM – CLEMENT TODD ...... vii Reprinted with permission from the American HAIL SUPPRESSION IN MENDOZA (ARGENTINA) ... 79 Meteorological Society J.L. Sanchez, J. Dessens, Leonid Dinevich, Petio Simeonov - REVIEWED SECTION -
AN UPDATE ON THE NORTH DAKOTA CLOUD THE TEXAS WEATHER MODIFICATION MODIFICATION PROJECT ...... 85 PROGRAM: OBJECTIVES, APPROACH AND Darin W. Langerud and Paul T. Moen PROGRESS ...... 9 George A. Bomar, William L. Woodley, - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - and Dale L. Bates GENERAL INFORMATION SIMULTANEOUS OPERATIONAL AgI AND ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE HYGROSCOPIC FLARE SEEDING IN TEXAS: WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... 91 RATIONALE AND RESULTS ...... 23 William L. Woodley and Daniel Rosenfeld STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS ...... 94 COMPARISON OF RADAR-DERIVED PROPERTIES OF TEXAS CLOUDS RECEIVING QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR ONE OF THREE TRETMENTS: AgI EJECTABLE CERTIFICATION...... 96 FLARES OR HYGROSCOPIC FLARES OR NO SEEDING ...... 29 William L. Woodley and Daniel Rosenfeld
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 121
COALESCENCE ACTIVITY IN TEXAS CLOUDS: Reprinted with permission of the AMS from BAMS, THE INDEX OF COALESCENCE ACTIVITY AND Vol. 79, No. 12 FIRST-ECHO TOPS ...... 42 George A. Bomar, William L. Woodley, and SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND FOR THE AMS Dale L. Bates POLICY STATEMENT ON PLANNED AND INADVERTENT WEATHER SUMMARY OF THE NOAA/UTAH ATMOSPHERIC MODIFICATION (1998) ...... 145 MODIFICATION PROGRAM: 1990-1998 ...... 51 Reprinted with permission of the AMS from BAMS, Arlin B. Super Vol. 79, No. 12
ORGANIZATION AND MAIN RESULTS OF THE ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE HAIL SUPPRESSION PROGRAM IN THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 151 NORTHERN AREA OF THE PROVINCE OF MENDOZA, ARGENTINA ...... 76 STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR Victor Makitov WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS...... 154
COMPARISON OF RAINWATER SILVER QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR CONCENTRATIONS FROM SEEDED AND NON- CERTIFICATION ...... 156 SEEDED DAYS IN LEON (SPAIN)...... 87 J.L. Sanchez, J. Dessens, J.L. Marcos WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION and J.T. Fernandez OPERATORS/MANAGERS AND HONORARY MEMBERS ...... 158 EVALUATION OF THE WESTERN KANSAS WEATHER MODIFICATION PROGRAM ...... 91 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION Darrel L. Eklund, Daljit Singh Jawa, and OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES...... 159 Tina Kae Rajala WMA AWARDS – THUNDERBIRD AWARD, BLACK GENERATION OF ICE NUCLEUS AEROSOLS BY CROW AWARD, SCHAEFER AWARD, SOLUTION AND PYROTECHNIC COMBUSTION...... 102 INTERNATIONAL AWARD ...... 160 William G. Finnegan WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY – INDIVIDUAL COMPARISONS OF LOHSE WING-TIP NUCLEI AND CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... 162 GENERATORS AND BURN-IN-OLACE PYROTECHNICS IN THE NORTH DAKOTA CLOUD JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION – MODIFICATION PROJECT ...... 109 33 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS...... 168 Bruce A. Boe and Paul J. DeMott HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN CHAFF TAGGING FOR TRACKING THE THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION, EVOLUTION OF CLOUD PARCELS...... 119 VOL 26, NO. 1 (March 1994) THROUGH Roger F. Reinking, Roelof T. Bruintjes, VOL 30, NO. 1 (Apr 1998) ...... 170 Bruce W. Bartram, Brad W. Orr, and Brooks E. Martner JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS – COMMENT ON “AN APPLICATION OF 1999/2000...... 175 HYGROSCOPIC FLARES – A SINGLE CASE STUDY” BY HENDERSON, WOOD AND AUTHOR’S GUIDE...... 176 NEWSOM ...... 134 Jean-Francois Berthoumieu ADVERTISEMENTS and Griffith Morgan MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION….Inside Back Cover REPLY ...... 136 Thomas J. Henderson ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - - NON-REVIEWED SECTION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION
DEVELOPMENT OF STANDARD PRACTICES FOR VOLUME 32 DESIGNING AND CONDUCTING WEATHER Number 1 April 2000 MODIFICATION PROJECTS...... 138 George W. Bomar TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE
A SUMMARY OF WEATHER MODIFICATION THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... iv ACTIVITIES IN THE UNITED STATES AS REPORTED IN 1996 AND 1997...... 141 PRESIDENT’S MESSSAGE and Joseph H. Golden EDITOR’S MESSAGE...... v Pat Sweeney and James R. Miller - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - GENERAL INFORMATION IN MEMORIAM – Wallace Howell and Arnold Court.... vi - REVIEWED SECTION - AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY POLICY STATEMENT (1998)...... 143 11-YEAR WARM CLOUD SEEDING EXPERIMENT
122 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
IN MAHARASHTRA STATE, INDIA...... 10 QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR A.S.R. Murty, A.M. Selvam, P.C.S. Devara, CERTIFICATION ...... 93 K. Krishna, R.N. Chatterjee, B.K. Mukherjee, L.T. Khemani, G.A. Momin, R.S. Reddy, WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION S.K. Sharma, D.B. Jadhav, R. Vijayakumar, OPERATORS/MANAGERS AND HONORARY P.E. Raj, G.K. Manohar, S.S. MEMBERS ...... 95 Kandalgaonkar, S.K. Paul, A.G. Pillai, C.P. Kulk S.S. Parasnis, A.L. Londhe, C.S. Bhosale, WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION S.B. Morwal, P.D. Safai, J.M. Pathan, OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES...... 96 K. Indira, M.S. Naik, P.S. P. Rao, P. Sikka, K.K. Dani, M.K. Kulkarni, H.K. Trimbake, WMA AWARDS – THUNDERBIRD AWARD, BLACK P.N. Sharma, R.K. Kapoor and CROW AWARD, SCHAEFER AWARD, M.I.R. Tinmaker INTERNATIONAL AWARD ...... 97
THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ARTIFICIAL WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY – INDIVIDUAL SNOW AUGMENTATION EFFECT ON FREEZE AND CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... 99 INJURY OF THE WINTER WHEAT...... 21 Jin Zhaomao and Gao Ziyi JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION – 34 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS...... 105 THE EFFECT OF SILVER IODIDE SEEDING ON HAILSTONE SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS...... 26 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN Jean Dessens and Roberto Fraile THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION, VOL 27, NO. 1 (March 1995) THROUGH CLOUD SEEDING POTENTIAL OF INDUSTRIAL VOL 31, NO. 1 (Apr 1999) ...... 107 PARTICULATES...... 31 Daryl V. O’Dowd JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS – IDENTIFICATION OF A SEEDING SIGNATURE IN 2000/2001...... 112 TEXAS USING MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...... 37 AUTHOR’S GUIDE...... 113 William L. Woodley, Daniel Rosenfeld and Aldis Strautins ADVERTISEMENTS
EVIDENCE FOR CHANGES IN MICROPHYSICAL MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION….Inside Back Cover STRUCTURE AND CLOUD DRAFTS FOLLOWING AgI SEEDING ...... 53 ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ William L. Woodley and Daniel Rosenfeld - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - NON-REVIEWED SECTION - VOLUME 33 CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE DIRECTION OF Number 1 April 2001 THE OKLAHOMA WEATHER MODIFICATION PROGRAM...... 69 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE Nathan R. Kuhnert, Brian R. Vance, and Michael E. Mathis THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... iv
A NEW HAIL SUPPRESSION PROJECT USING PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE and AIRCRAFT SEEDING IN ARGENTINA ...... 73 EDITOR’S MESSAGE...... v Terry W. Krauss, Roelof T. Bruintjes, and Pat Sweeney and James R. Miller Hugo Martinez IN MEMORIAM – Ray Jay Davis ...... vi SILVER IODIDE CLOUD SEEDING RATES AND CORRESPONDING PRECIPITATION ...... 81 ANNOUNCEMENT: NATIONAL RESEARCH Albert H. Schnell COUNCIL WORKSHOP SUMMARY ...... viii Harold D. Orville A REVIEW OF CLOUD CLASSIFICATION IN WARM SEASON WEATHER MODIFICATION - REVIEWED SECTION - OPERATIONS AND RESEARCH...... 84 Bruce A. Boe REVIEW OF PERSISTENCE EFFECTS OF SILVER IODIDE CLOUD SEEDING ...... 9 - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - Alexis B. Long GENERAL INFORMATION REVIEW OF DOWNWIND EXTRA-AREA EFFECTS ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT...... 24 WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... 88 Alexis B. Long
STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR RESULTS OF MONTHLY AND SEASONAL WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS ...... 91 GAUGE VS. RADAR RAINFALL COMPARISONS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...... 46 William L. Woodley, Roni Drori,
April 2003 HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS VOL. 1 – VOL. 34 123
Daniel Rosefeld, Scott Orr, and PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE and EDITOR’S George Bomar MESSAGE...... v Tom DeFelice and James R. Miller - NON-REVIEWED SECTION - - REVIEWED SECTION – CLOUD SEEDING – THE UTAH EXPERIENCE...... 63 OPERATIONAL FORECASTS OF MAXIMUM Norman E. Stauffer, Jr. HAILSTONE DIAMETER IN MENDOZA, ARGENTINA...... 8 WEATHER CONTROL TRADITIONS OF THE Julian C. Brimelow, Terry W. Krauss, CHEROKEE ...... 70 Gerhard W. Reuter James A. Heimbach, Jr. ACIDIC CLOUD EPISODES IN THE NORTHERN THE TIME HAS COME...... 74 COLORADO ROCKIES: INADVERTENT WEATHER John N. Leedom MODIFICATION?...... 18 Edward E. Hindman, Maria C. Meyer, Stanley - WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - D. Gedzelman, and Teresa J. Bandosz GENERAL INFORMATION SECONDARY SEEDING AS A MEANS OF ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE PROPAGATING SEEDING EFFECTS WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 76 IN SPACE AND TIME...... 31 William L. Woodley and Daniel Rosenfeld STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS...... 79 ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT OF WINTER CLOUD SEEDING IN THE QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR BOISE RIVER DRAINAGE, IDAHO...... 39 CERTIFICATION ...... 81 Don A. Griffith and Mark E. Solak
WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION COMMENTS ON THE PAPER BY ALEXIS B. LONG OPERATORS/MANAGERS AND HONORARY ENTITLED “REVIEW OF PERSISTENCE EFFECTS MEMBERS ...... 83 OF SILVER IODIDE CLOUD SEEDING”...... 47 E.K. Bigg
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION REPLY TO BIGG’S COMMENTS ON “REVIEW OF OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES...... 84 PERSISTENCE EFFECTS OF SILVER IODIDE CLOUD SEEDING”...... 51 WMA AWARDS – THUNDERBIRD AWARD, Alexis B. Long BLACK CROW AWARD, SCHAEFER AWARD, INTERNATIONAL AWARD ...... 85 - NON-REVIEWED SECTION -
WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY – INDIVIDUAL AN OKLAHOMA WEATHER MODIFICATION AND CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... 87 PROGRAM STATUS REPORT AND PROJECT REVIEW ...... 54 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION – Timothy E. Sedlock, Nathan R. Kuhnert, 35 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS...... 93 Rebecca L. Resler, Michael E. Mathis, Bruce A. Boe, and Brian Vance HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION, SOME REFLECTIONS ON HAILSTORMS AND VOL 28, NO. 1 (March 1996) THROUGH HAIL SUPPRESSION...... 64 VOL 32, NO. 1 (Apr 2000) ...... 95 Andrew G. Detwiler
JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT A REVIEW OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER INFORMATION, SCHEDULED WMA MEETINGS – PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT PROGRAM...... 73 2001/2002...... 100 Rebecca L. Resler and Bruce A. Boe
AUTHOR’S GUIDE...... 101 MENDOZA HAIL MITIGATION PROJECT: FINAL REPORT 2000-2001 ADVERTISEMENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...... 81 Terry W. Krauss and Manuel M. Mir MEMBERSHIP APPLICATION….Inside Back Cover WHAT IS THE ACTUAL BENEFIT FROM CLOUD ♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦ SEEDING? 84 - THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION - David L. Newsom WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION THE MONTEREY COUNTY WEATHER VOLUME 34 MODIFICATION PROGRAM Number 1 April 2002 IN CALIFORNIA 1991-1995 ...... 87 Thomas J. Henderson, John R. Stremel,
Dartanion Mims, and James D. Goodridge THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION ...... iv
124 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
A HIGH-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC MANAGEMENT PROGRAM PLAN FOR THE NEW MILLENNIUM...... 94 Thomas P. DeFelice
MODELING TITAN CONTROL CLOUDS ...... 100 Arquimedes Ruiz, Marion Mittermaier, Dale Bates
WEATHER MODIFICATION SCIENTIFIC MANAGEMENT IN TEXAS: THE EXTENSIVE AND INTENSIVE USES OF TITAN ...... 104 Dale L. Bates and Arquimedes Ruiz
- WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION - GENERAL INFORMATION -
ARTICLES OF INCORPORATION OF THE WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION...... 111
STATEMENT ON STANDARDS AND ETHICS FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS...... 114
QUALIFICATIONS AND PROCEDURES FOR CERTIFICATION...... 116
WMA CERTIFIED WEATHER MODIFICATION OPERATORS/MANAGERS AND HONORARY MEMBERS ...... 118
WEATHER MODIFICATION ASSOCIATION OFFICERS AND COMMITTEES...... 119
WMA AWARDS – SCHAEFER AWARD, THUNDERBIRD AWARD, INTERNATIONAL AWARD, BLACK CROW AWARD ...... 120
- WMA MEMBERSHIP DIRECTORY -
INDIVIDUAL AND CORPORATE MEMBERS ...... 122
JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION – 36 AVAILABLE PUBLICATIONS ...... 128
HISTORIC INDEX OF PUBLISHED PAPERS IN THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION, VOL. 29, NO. 1 (April 1997) THROUGH VOL. 33, No. 1 (April 2001) ...... 130
JOURNAL NOTES, ADVERTISEMENT INFORMATION, SCHEDULED MEETINGS – 2002/2003 ...... 135
AUTHOR’S GUIDE ...... 136
ADVERTISEMENTS
April 2003 JOURNAL NOTES 125
J O U R N A L N O T E S
A CHARGE OF $50.00 PER PAGE WILL BE APPLIED TO EACH PAPER, ARTICLE AND NOTE ACCEPTED FOR PUBLICATION IN VOLUME 36, TO BE PUBLISHED IN APRIL 2004. A SUPPLEMENTAL SURCHARGE OF $120.00 PER PAGE IS APPLIED FOR COLOR PAGES. PAPERS FROM SOURCES OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES WILL ALSO BE REQUIRED TO PAY THESE PAGE CHARGES (U.S. CURRENCY).
ONE COPY OF THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION IS SENT FREE TO EACH MEMBER AND TO THE PRINCIPAL AUTHOR OF EACH PAPER. FIRST AUTHORS RECEIVE 20 COMPLIMENTARY COPIES OF PAPERS IF PAGE CHARGES ARE PAID WHEN DUE. MEMBERS WHO ARE DELINQUENT IN DUES WILL NOT RECEIVE COPIES OF THE JOURNAL.
ADVERTISEMENT INFORMATION FOR THE JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION
Full Page - Outside back cover (color): $500 Full Page - Inside front & back covers: (B & W or color) $300 Full Page - Inside pages: $200 Half-Page - Inside pages: $120
All submissions and advertising copy for 2004 should be sent to:
Journal of Weather Modification c/o Dr. Steven Chai Division of Atmospheric Sciences Desert Research Institute 2215 Raggio Parkway Reno, Nevada 89512-1095
TEL: (775) 674-7070 FAX: (775) 674-7007 Email: [email protected]
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WMA ANNUAL MEETING - 2003
April 24-25, 2003 Rushmore Holiday Inn Rapid City, South Dakota
WMA ANNUAL MEETING - 2004- To be announced Tentatively set for Fresno, California 126 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Volume 35
INSTRUCTIONS AND FORMAT FOR PREPARATION OF CAMERA-READY MANUSCRIPTS ACCEPTED FOR PUBLICATION IN THE 2004 JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION
Abstract. To give authors more control over the arrangement and format of their papers and reduce production costs, so as to avoid any increase in page charges, each author is asked to provide a final version of his paper, typed in two columns on regular sized (8.5" x 11") paper, 1-inch margins (top, bottom, left and right), with 1/2-inch be- tween the two columns, using 10-point serif type (as shown here). This version will incorporate any changes sug- gested by the Editor or his referees after consideration of the original manuscript. Details of format and arrange- ment, and of style and referencing, are given in the following text and example.
1. ANNOUNCEMENT Line drawings and photographs with good contrast can be mounted directly on the final pages, Effective with Vol. 13 for 1981, the with legends typed below them, preferably in italics. JOURNAL OF WEATHER MODIFICATION adopted Please use photographs sparingly, because these en- a double-column reduced typescript format. After tail extra printing costs, require halftone negatives or editorial review and acceptance, each article will be "screened" photos. Tables and figures should be returned to its author for final typing on 8.5" x 11" incorporated into the papers at suitable places. Use paper, two-column format, in 10-point type with paste or rubber cement to attach columns, figures, or 1-inch top, bottom, left and right margins and 1/2 tables -- DO NOT USE TAPE. Text will be in a inch between the two columns. normal two-column format, with 1/2-inch between columns, which can be broken for formulas, tables, These procedures have been adopted by the and figures. Please allow extra space at the top mar- Editorial Board of the Weather Modification Asso- gin to allow for addition of the page headers. ciation to improve the appearance of the JOURNAL while also increasing the number of words per page. 2.1 Style Details They should also result in a more compact page and better arrangement of articles, in addition to reducing Titles of papers should be informative but the workload and expenses in the editorial office. short (preferably less than 10 words) and should be centered 1 inch below the top border of the first The system will provide authors with almost page. Each author should be identified by affiliation, complete control over the composition and arrange- with a minimal postal address. Two authors should ment of their papers, subject to the basic style rules be listed in parallel boxes across the page. of the JOURNAL. These procedures are similar to those used by various professional societies for con- An informative abstract of 50 to 200 words ference preprints. The formatting instructions (style must precede each paper (formatted as shown above). sheet) will be sent to each author with their notice of It should contain numerical results and all conclu- paper acceptance and reviewers' comments. sions, not just a description of the problem and meth- odology. Abstracts will not contain equations or 2. REQUIREMENTS acronyms.
Upon acceptance, each article is to be typed The pages should be divided into sections of on 8.5" x 11" paper, using 10-point serif type, in 300 to 1,000 words each, with an arabic-numbered double column format (1/2-inch between col- heading, flush left, in capital letters. Subsection umns). For authors who cannot arrange such final headings may be decimally numbered, capital and typing, the JOURNAL editorial staff will provide this lower case, underlined, flush left. Leave one blank service for a modest typing charge. line before and after all headings, between para- graphs, and place April 2003 AUTHOR’S GUIDE 127 one blank line between each of the references in the For any reference in a foreign language, the reference listing. [The layout of these instructions title should be in the original language, with an Eng- follows the WMA format rules.] lish translation in parentheses. Place and year of first publication should be given, with any reprinting Acknowledgments. Acknowledgments (of identified in parentheses. financial support, provision of data, loan of equip- ment, advice, etc.) should be given in a final section, 3. PROCEDURES preceding references. To submit paper: 2.2 Units and Measures Draft papers for the reviewed section should be double-spaced, and three copies provided to the In general, the International System of Units Editor by 15 November 2003 for adequate review is standard in JOURNAL publications. SI units (m, prior to the next April publishing date. Draft papers kg, s, K) should be used throughout but not at the or Notes for the non-reviewed section should be dou- expense of clarity (Anon, 1974). ble-spaced and two copies provided to the Editor by 15 January 2004. Since authors will be responsible for the final typing of any formulas or mathematical expres- Upon acceptance by the Journal: sion, they must be prepared to present Greek letters Only the original of the final typed version, or other symbols by typewriter, hand lettering, or typed in double columns, need be returned to the stick-up. Expressions should be properly arranged editorial staff, but authors should retain photocopies and spaced for ready comprehension. Formulas and for safety. The final typed version must be single- equations may be numbered, at the extreme right end spaced. A diskette copy is required in Microsoft of the line, for further reference: "Substitution of Eq. Word for Windows or Word Perfect. (3) into Eq. (5) yields...." Formulas not mentioned should not be numbered. To implement these procedures and still publish by April, the original unfolded manuscripts 2.3 References should be sent to reach the WMA editor in Reno, NV, by March 1, 2004. This will permit orderly Each reference should be generally avail- handling, preparation, printing, etc. able, as in the library of a large university. Contract reports, conference preprints, in-house publications, 4. REFERENCES and similar material may be cited only if available through NTIS (with number given), or if the author Anon, A. A., and B. B. Jones, 1974: SI units to be guarantees to supply copies. used in AMS journals. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 55, 916-930. Every reference should have been cited at least once in the text, table notes, or figure descrip- [Note: Last name first for first author only!] tions. References should give author (last name first for first author only), year, title, journal or publisher, volume and inclusive pages. Well-known journals may be abbreviated (J. Wea. Mod., J. Appl. Meteor., Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., Amer. Geophys. Union, etc.), but others should be given in full.
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APPENDIX I: SAMPLE FOR PAPER TITLES AND AUTHORS
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