MASTER TIMOTHY W STANLEY Giorge J STATHAKIS Ril?M I STRAUS ROMRTS STRAUSS DISTRIBUTION of THIS DOCUMENT Is GEORGE a STRICHMAN LEONARD SULUVAN
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CHAIRMAN ANDREW J GOODPASTER THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL VtCtCHAMMfN EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT OAVIOC ACNESON OF THE UNITED STATES JOSEPH vu HAHNED HENRY H FOWLER JOHN E GRAY U ALEXIS JOHNSON 1616 H STREET, N.W. • WASHINGTON. D.C. 20006 CAROL LAISE FAX (202) 737-5163 • CABLE ATCOUN • TELEX 248965 ATCN UR wu MCCH MARTIN EUGENE V ROSTOW 12021 347-9353 KENNETH RUSH TMASUMIt WILLIAM H G FITZGERALD DEVELOMKNT COMMITTEE CHMMMN LAWRENCE M WOODS SCCMTARV CONP-8810273- JAMES W SYMINGTON DMCCTOM DE89 03853 DAVfOM ABSWRE THEODORE C ACHILLES JR DONALD S AGGER STEPHEN AILES MADELEINE K ALBRIGHT OVWYNE 0 ANOREAS WILLIS C ARMSTRONG NORMAN R AUGUSTINE ROBERT SATEMAN W TAPLEY BENNETT JR JAMES H BHJ.INGTON GEORGE S BLANCHARD US-JAPAN ENERGY POLICY CONSULTATIONS GENE E BRADLEY HAROLD (DOWN L OEAN BROWN MARRY F SYRD. JR DANIEL J CALLAHAN HI MARK H CURTIS October 16-18, 1989 WILLIAMS DALE KENNETH W DAM W KENNETH DAVIS RUSSELL E DOUGHERTY LAWRENCES EAGLEIURGER LLOYD H ELLIOTT ROKRT t ELLSWORTH SHERWOOD L FAWCETT Westin Mauna Kea Hotel, Hawaii GERALD* FORO GEORGE S FRANKLIN JR ROBERT F FROEHLKE HICHAM} N GARDNER LINCOLN GOROON DONALD L. QUERTIN ALEXANDER M HAKa JR PAMELA C IIARRIMAN MARTIN J HILLENBRAND WALTER E HOAOLEV CLAIRE GlANNM HOFFMAN ROKRT D HOMHATS DISCLAIMER J ALLAN HOVEY.JR THOMAS L HUGHES COROELL W HULL This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States ISAAC C KIDO. JR Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their LANEKMKLAMD JEANE J KBKPATAICK employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsi- HENRY A KISSINGER bility for the accuracy, completeneit, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or JUANITA M KR8PS met F KROQH proceu disclosed, or represent! that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Refer- JAMES TLAMY LYMAN L LEMMTZER ence herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, SOL M LINOWITZ manufacturer, or otherwiK does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recom- LEONARD H MARKS JAYMAZUR mendation, or ravoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views GEORGE C MCGHEE DONALD F MCHENRY and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the ROBERT $ MCNAMARA United States Government or any agency thereof. LAWRCNCE C MCQUADE FAYMETCALF JACK N MERMTT STEVEN MULLED THOMAS J MUMNN EDMUNDS MUSK* GCOROE R PACKARO HH.LIARO. W PAK3E EOMUNO D PELLEORWO JACQUES J RfWSTBN STANLEY R RESOR EMMETTJ MCE ELLIOT L RCHAROSON PAUL H ROBNSON JR OUNC ROSItON BERNARD W ROGERS H CHAPMANROSE NATHANIEL SAMUELS J ROBERT SCHAETZEL JAMES R SCHLESMGER •REI IT SCOWCROFT RAYMOND Pt#UP SHAFER C J SKAS WILLIAM E SIMON JOSEPH j asco SHERWOOO H SMITH JR HELMUT JONMENf ClDT FRANK A SOUTHARD JR MASTER TIMOTHY W STANLEY GiORGE J STATHAKIS Ril?M I STRAUS ROMRTS STRAUSS DISTRIBUTION OF THIS DOCUMENT iS GEORGE A STRICHMAN LEONARD SULUVAN. JR JOHN 1 SWCCNEY PETER TARNOFF WILLIAM C TLMNC* STEPHEN L VAN HONOWHUY DMCCTOMS CYRUS H VANCE GEORQEWBALL H»RU>N CLEVELAND CHRISTIAN A HERTER JR SANFORO N MCDONNELL EARLE C WILLIAMS ADOLPH W SCHMtOT EOWARO W BARRETT EMILIO G COLLAOO JOHN O HICKERSON LAURIS NORSTAD MASON WH.LRICH CORTLANOTvR SCHUUEft ANOOCWH BEROmG C nOuGLASCMUON TOhKILLEFER SAMNUNN CHARLES M SPOFFORD EUGENE » BLACK JOHN FERGUSON III RUTHC LAWSON WILLIAM » ROGERS THOMAS J WATSON JR JOSEPH 1 WOLF LESLIE S BRADY RALPH C M FLYNT JAY LOVESTONE ROBERT VROOSA R JAMES WOOLSEY SOLC CHAIKIN ANOREW HEISKELL JOHNJ MCLOY OEAN RUSK Table of Contents List of Japanese Participants List of US Participants Meeting Agenda "The Impact of Pertinent International Issues on US-Japan Energy Interests and Relations", by C. J. Silas "The Age of Asia and US-Japan Cooperation", by Ariyoshi Okumura "Comments on the Middle Eastern Situation", by William C. King "US Energy 1988: Countdown to the Next Crisis", by the US Energy Association's Ad Hoc Committee on National Energy Outlook, W. J. Bowen, Chairman "The Present Situation and Problem of Introduction of LNG in Japan", by Yoichi Akiyama "US Electricity Outlook: Ensuring the Future of Electricity's Role in a Changing Environment", by Thomas R. Kuhn "Three Major Issues Confronting Japan's Electric Companies", by Wateri Mizuno "Nuclear Power and Related Issues: The US Outlook", by Sol Burstein "Outlook for Nuclear Energy in Japan", by Yoshihisa Akiyama "Oil, Coal, and Related Issues in the United States", by William C. King "Oil and Related Issues in Japan", by Kenzo Saikawa "Status of US Coal", by Constance Holmes "Comments on Coal and Related Issues in Japan", by Kunio Kakizawa "New Energy Development", by W. Kenneth Davis "New Energy Development", by Mamoru Sueda "Summary of Consultations from the US Perspective", by W. Kenneth Davis "Summation of the Conference in Hawaii as Viewed from the Japanese Side", by Toyoaki Ikuta US-Japan Energy Policy Consultations Hawaii, October 16-18, 1988 U.S. PARTICIPANTS John E. Gray, President, ERC International; Chairman, Atlantic Council's Energy Policy Committee. W. J. Bowen, Chairman, Transco Energy Co. Sol Burstein, former Executive Vice President, Wisconsin Electric Power Company. W. Kenneth Davis, Consultant, Bechtel Power Corporation; former Under Secretary of Energy. Robert: It. Fri, President and Senior Fellow, Resources for the Future. Donald L. Guertin, Senior Research Fellow, Atlantic Council; former Senior Advisor for Public Affairs, Exxon Corporation. Joseph If. Harned, Executive Vice President, Atlantic Council. Constance Holaes, Vice President, National Coal Association. Williaa C. King, former Vice President, Corporate Planning, Gulf Oil Co. Hilton Klein, "Vice President, Electric Power Research Institute. Myron B. Kratzer, Consultant, International Energy Associates Limited. Thoaas R. Kuhn, Executive Vice President, Edison Electric Institute. Eliane Loaax, Assistant Director, Programs and Projects, Atlantic Council. C. J. Silas, Chairman and CEO, Phillips Petroleum Co. JAPANESE PARTICIPANTS U.S.-Japan Energy Dialogue 16-18 October 1988 Yoshflriio Nakayaaa President, Middle East Institute of Japan CEPP Standing Committee Member, JUERC Member Toyoalri Ikuta President, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan CEPP Standing Committee Member, JUERC Member Mrs. Taeko Ikuta Watari Miiuno Executive Vice President, Tokyo Electric Power Co., JUERC Member Yoshihi*. Akiyaaa Senior Managing Director, The Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc., JUERC Member Kenso Saikawa Managing Director, Nippon Oil Co., Ltd., JUERC Member Yofchi Senior Managing Director, Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. Kunio Kakteawa Senior Managing Director, C. Itoh and Co., Ltd., JUERC Member Ariyoabi Okuawra Managing Director and Chief Financial Economist, The Industrial Bank of Japan CEPP Advisory Experts Committee Member, JUERC Member Takao Toaritate Managing Director, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan CEPP Advisory Experts Committee Member Sued* Executive Director, CEPP Akinori Soha* Managing Director and Secretary General, CEPP Tsuyoabi Otani Assistant to Manager, General Planning Dept., Tokyo Electric Power Co. Laura Manager, Economic Survey Corporate Planning Dept., The Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. Seiji Sakaaoto Manager, Management Office Section III, Nippon Oil Co., Ltd. US-Japan Energy Policy Consultations October 16-18, 1988 Westin Mauna Kea Hotel, Hawaii AGENDA Sunday 16 October 1988: 3:00- 5:00 Hotel check-in for arriving participants 5:15- 5:45 Special working session: Presentation by W. J. Bowen on "US Energy Issues, with special emphasis on Gas". 6:00- 8:00 Welcoming Reception Monday 17 October 1988: 8:30- 9:00 Opening Remarks: John E. Gray and Yoshihiro Nakayaaa 9:00-11:00 1. Impact of Pertinent International Issues on US-Japan Energy Interests and Relations: US Perspective: C. J. Silas Japanese Perspective: Ariyoshi Okiumra Discussion 11:00-11:15 Refreshment Break 11:15*12:45 ' Comments on the Middle East Situation: US Perspective: Willta C. King Japanese Perspective: Yoshihiro Nakayaaa Discussion 2. Gas and Related Issues: Japanese Outlook: Yaichi Akiymas. Discussion 12:45- 2:15 Lunch Break 2:15- 3:30 3. Electric Power and Related Issues: US Outlook: ThosMS Kuhn Japanese Outlook: Watari Mizuno Discussion 3:30- 3:45 Refreshment Break 3:45- 5:45 4. Nuclear Power and Related Issues: Japanese Outlook: Yoshihisa Akiywa Discussion 6:30- 8:30 Cocktails and Dinner (US-hosted) Tuesday 18 October 1988 8:30-10:15 4. Nuclear Power and Related Issues (continued): US Outlook: Sol Burstein Discussion 10:15-10:30 Refreshment Break 10:30-12:30 5. Oil, Coal and Related Issues: Japanese Outlook (oil): Kenxo Saikawa US Outlook (oil): William C. King Discussion Japanese Outlook (coal): Kunio Kakizawa US Outlook (coal): Constance Holmes Discussion 12:30- 1:45 Lunch Break 1:45- 3:15 6. New Energy Development: Japanese Outlook: Mnwim Sued* US Outlook: W. Kenneth Davis Discussion 3:15- 3:30 Refreshment Break 3:30- 5:45 7. Summary: Japanese Perspective: Toyomki Ikuta US Perspective: W. Kenneth Davis Discussion of future work and next steps towards meeting in Japan on April 9-11, 1989. 6:30- 8:30 Cocktails and Closing Dinner (Japanese-hosted) Shunzo Ueda Research Associate, Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. Yasuteru Nishshiro Chief Economist, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Kazuo Ichikawa Economist, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Yashuhiro HinuHi Manager (Research Division), CEPP Hiroshi Araki Deputy Manager (Research Division), CEPP