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Development of a Predictive Coalition Building Analysis for Stakeholders

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Development of a Predictive Coalition Building Analysis for Stakeholders Development of a Predictive Coalition Building Analysis for Stakeholders of Sociotechnical Systems Case Studies of High-Speed Rail Development in the Northeast Corridor of the United States and the Tōhoku Shinkansen Extension from Hachinohe to Shin-Aomori, Japan by Joanna C. Moody B.S. Mathematics, Physics, and Japanese Bates College, 2014 Submitted to the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Transportation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology June 2016 © 2016 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All Rights Reserved. Signature of Author: ......................................................................................................................... Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering May 18, 2016 Certified by: ...................................................................................................................................... Dr. Joseph M. Sussman JR East Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems Thesis Supervisor Accepted by: ..................................................................................................................................... Dr. Heidi Nepf Donald and Martha Harleman Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering Chair, Graduate Program Committee 1 2 Development of a Predictive Coalition Building Analysis for Stakeholders of Sociotechnical Systems Case Studies of High-Speed Rail Development in the Northeast Corridor of the United States and the Tōhoku Shinkansen Extension from Hachinohe to Shin-Aomori, Japan by Joanna C. Moody Submitted to the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering On May 18, 2016 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Transportation Abstract: This thesis lays out the intellectual underpinnings and the motivation for a visual, transparent, and user-friendly predictive stakeholder analysis tool for planners and project managers to better understand future uncertainties in institutional structures and cooperative relationships surrounding large, complex, multi-stakeholder infrastructure and transportation projects. We present the development of Predictive Coalition Building Analysis (PCBA). The three-phase methodological framework assigns likelihoods to possible future coalitions of stakeholders by 1) identifying and discussing stakeholders and their interests in various objectives for system development, 2) clustering stakeholders based on their similar interests, and 3) attributing salience to each stakeholder and cluster to discuss incentives and barriers to collective action. We apply PCBA to two case studies of complex, multi-stakeholder high-speed rail (HSR) systems: 1) the Northeast Corridor (NEC) in the United States, and 2) the Tōhoku Shinkansen extension from Hachinohe to Shin-Aomori, Japan. In the NEC case, we test PCBA for its sensitivity and robustness to perturbations, demonstrating that the tool responds to small changes in the institutional context in meaningful ways. This highlights the usefulness of PCBA as a tool for exploring different future scenarios and understanding the uncertainty of stakeholder relationships and coalitions surrounding the system or project of study. In the case of the Tōhoku Shinkansen extension, we are able to directly verify the predictive validity of the coalition likelihood results obtained from PCBA by comparing them with what actually happened through the planning, construction, and start of revenue service (1994-2012). This thesis lays the foundation for future research and application into PCBA. As a tool developed for professional application, the strength of this tool lies in its usability, transparency, and communicability. We have demonstrated that PCBA can provide real, predictive insight at a macro-scale to help explore uncertainties in stakeholder relationships, making it valuable for policy-makers who want to easily understand and visualize the broad institutional context of the 3 system. While the case studies in this thesis explore high-speed rail development, the author asserts that this tool could be useful for exploring other sociotechnical systems within and beyond the transportation domain, even more so as the tool continues to develop. Thesis Supervisor: Joseph M. Sussman Title: JR East Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems 4 Acknowledgments I would like to thank my thesis advisor – Professor Joseph Sussman – and my colleagues Maite Pena-Alcaraz, Patton Doyle, Scott Middleton, and Dagin Faulkner who have collaborated with me on the research project with East Japan Railway Company (JR East) that helped inspire this work. I would also like to acknowledge all other current and former students of the Regional Transportation and High-Speed Rail research group for their valuable feedback and encouragement throughout the process, particularly Matt Fitzgerald and Tolu Ogunbekun. I would like to thank all of our research collaborators at JR East for their valuable contributions to our ongoing research relationship. I extend a special thanks to Mr. Iori Mori for his help in breaking down language and cultural barriers and forging shared understanding; Mr. Nakajima for his enthusiasm and dedication to the success and mutual value of the project; Mr. Sakairi for his coordination efforts; and Mr. Satoshi Kuji for his time and energy in responding to all of my questions regarding the Tōhoku Shinkansen case study presented in this thesis. To my friends and family, thank you for all of your guidance and support throughout this process. To my mother, father, and sisters, thank you for being a constant and loving presence in my life and for each supporting me in your own way. To my boyfriend, Lucas Wilson-Spiro, thank you for putting up with me on the difficult days and for celebrating with me on the happy ones. To my other friends and colleagues, you have helped me grow in many ways beyond this research and I thank you for always nudging me to be a better version of myself. Lastly, I would like to take the time to thank anyone who reads some or all of this thesis. Being able to share my work and add even a small contribution to collective scholarship is the ultimate reward for completing this project. I hope you find the methods and conclusions presented of use. 5 6 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................... 11! LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................... 13! CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 15! 1.1 PCBA Framework ................................................................................................................ 15! 1.2 Case Studies in High-Speed Rail ......................................................................................... 17! 1.3 Thesis Organization .............................................................................................................. 18! CHAPTER 2. STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS: A REVIEW ................................................... 21! 2.1 Identifying Stakeholders and their Goals ........................................................................... 23! 2.2 Stakeholder Analysis in the Study of Public Policy ........................................................... 24! 2.2.1 Advocacy Coalition Framework .................................................................................................... 24! 2.2.2 Institutional Analysis and Development Framework .................................................................... 28! 2.3 Stakeholder Analysis in Strategic Management ................................................................ 30! 2.4 Implications for Predictive Coalition Building Analysis ................................................... 33! CHAPTER 3.!METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................. 35! 3.1 Phase 1: Data Collection ....................................................................................................... 36! 3.1.1 Defining the System and Project Boundary ................................................................................... 36! 3.1.2 Identifying Stakeholders and the System Objectives .................................................................... 37! 3.1.3 Developing a Stakeholder-Objective Matrix ................................................................................. 38! 3.2 Phase 2: Clustering ............................................................................................................... 39! 3.2.1 Choosing the Clustering Variables ................................................................................................ 40! 3.2.2 Deciding on the Clustering Procedure or Type ............................................................................. 41! 3.2.3 Selecting a Measure of (Dis)Similarity ......................................................................................... 43! 3.2.4 Selecting a Linkage Algorithm ...................................................................................................... 43! 3.2.5 Interpreting the Clustering Output ................................................................................................
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