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The Effect of the Cardiff Bay Barrage on Waterbird Populations 13

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The Effect of the Cardiff Bay Barrage on Waterbird Populations 13 BTO Research Report No. 298 The Effect of the Cardiff Bay Barrage on Waterbird Populations 13. Distribution and Movement Studies August 2001-May 2002 Authors N.H.K. Burton, M.M. Rehfisch & N.A. Clark Final report of work carried out by The British Trust for Ornithology under contract to The Council of the City and County of Cardiff October 2002 British Trust for Ornithology and The Council of the City and County of Cardiff The National Centre for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU Registered Charity No. 216652 CONTENTS Page No. List of Tables...........................................................................................................................................3 List of Figures.........................................................................................................................................5 List of Appendices ..................................................................................................................................7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY....................................................................................................................9 GENERAL INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................11 PART 1: DISTRIBUTION STUDIES ................................................................................................13 1. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................13 2. METHODS............................................................................................................................15 2.1 All-day Counts.......................................................................................................................15 2.2 Low Tide Counts...................................................................................................................15 2.3 Data Analysis and Presentation of Results .........................................................................15 3. RESULTS ..............................................................................................................................17 3.1 Shelduck Tadorna tadorna....................................................................................................17 3.2 Dunlin Calidris alpina ...........................................................................................................18 3.3 Curlew Numenius arquata....................................................................................................19 3.4 Redshank Tringa totanus......................................................................................................20 3.5 Other Waterbird Species......................................................................................................21 3.5.1 Great Crested Grebe Podiceps cristatus .................................................................21 3.5.2 Cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo.............................................................................21 3.5.3 Mute Swan Cygnus olor ...........................................................................................21 3.5.4 Mallard Anas platyrhynchos....................................................................................22 3.5.5 Teal Anas crecca.......................................................................................................22 3.5.6 Pintail Anas acuta.....................................................................................................22 3.5.7 Pochard Aythya ferina..............................................................................................22 3.5.8 Tufted Duck Aythya fuligula ...................................................................................22 3.5.9 Goosander Mergus merganser.................................................................................22 3.5.10 Coot Fulica atra........................................................................................................23 3.5.11 Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus....................................................................23 3.5.12 Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula........................................................................23 3.5.13 Grey Plover Pluvialis squatarola.............................................................................23 3.5.14 Lapwing Vanellus vanellus ......................................................................................24 3.5.15 Knot Calidris canutus...............................................................................................24 3.5.16 Turnstone Arenaria interpres ..................................................................................24 3.6 Gulls .......................................................................................................................................24 4. DISCUSSION........................................................................................................................25 4.1 Changes in Species’ Diversity and Abundance within Cardiff Bay .................................25 4.2 Impacts of Barrage-Closure on the Former Waterbird Community of Cardiff Bay .....25 BTO Research Report No. 298 1 Final October 2002 Page No. PART 2: REDSHANK STUDIES.......................................................................................................27 5. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................27 6. METHODS............................................................................................................................29 6.1 Ringing...................................................................................................................................29 6.2 Data Analysis and Presentation of Results .........................................................................29 6.2.1 The Distribution of Redshank Displaced from Cardiff Bay ................................29 6.2.2 Survival Analyses .....................................................................................................30 7. RESULTS ..............................................................................................................................31 7.1 The Distribution of Redshank Displaced from Cardiff Bay .............................................31 7.2 Survival Analyses..................................................................................................................31 8. DISCUSSION........................................................................................................................33 Acknowledgements...............................................................................................................................35 References .............................................................................................................................................37 Tables.....................................................................................................................................................41 Figures...................................................................................................................................................55 Appendices ............................................................................................................................................83 BTO Research Report No. 298 2 Final October 2002 List of Tables Page No. Table 2.3.1 The importance of the Severn Estuary and Cardiff Bay for waterbirds in a British and international context............................................................................41 Table 3.1.1 Likelihood ratio statistics and associated probabilities for month, state of tide, mudflat, state of tide*mudflat and year in generalized linear models describing densities of feeding Shelduck at Cardiff Bay from 1989/90 to 1998/99 and Orchard Ledges and Rhymney from 1989/90 to 2001/02 ............................................42 Table 3.1.2 Likelihood ratio statistics and associated probabilities for month, mudflat and year in a generalized linear model describing densities of feeding Shelduck at low tide on eight mudflats at Peterstone and St. Brides from 1992/93 to 2001/02 ....................43 Table 3.2.1 Likelihood ratio statistics and associated probabilities for month, state of tide, mudflat, state of tide*mudflat and year in generalized linear models describing densities of feeding Dunlin at Cardiff Bay from 1989/90 to 1998/99 and Orchard Ledges and Rhymney from 1989/90 to 2001/02. .........................................................44 Table 3.2.2 Likelihood ratio statistics and associated probabilities for month, mudflat and year in a generalized linear model describing densities of feeding Dunlin at low tide on eight mudflats at Peterstone and St. Brides from 1992/93 to 2001/02 ....................45 Table 3.3.1 Likelihood ratio statistics and associated probabilities for month, state of tide, mudflat, state of tide*mudflat and year in generalized linear models describing densities of feeding Curlew at Cardiff Bay from 1989/90 to 1998/99 and Orchard Ledges and Rhymney from 1989/90 to 2001/02 ..........................................................46 Table 3.3.2 Likelihood ratio statistics and associated probabilities for month, mudflat and year in a generalized linear model describing densities of feeding Curlew at low tide on eight mudflats at Peterstone
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