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January 2009 Explorer

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January 2009 Explorer Vol. 30, No. 1 January 2009 cggveritas.com JANUARY 2009 3 On the cover: No, those aren’t photos of Australia and Iran you see – but the words capture perfectly this month’s EXPLORER theme: World Developments. Check out the stories dealing with the significant discoveries of 2008 (that’s where you’ll find Australia and Iran), or specific stories dealing with places like offshore Brazil, the East Georges Bank Basin or British Columbia. Incidentally, the main Discussion Needs photo is from the Ootla shale play in northeast British Columbia (see related story, page 10) and the inset photo was snapped in the active and successful arena that is Egypt. Both photos courtesy of Apache Corp. Climate Change By SCOTT W.TINKER warming in the second half of the 20th The new year offers an opportunity to century to be greater than it would have AAPG President Scott Tinker sends a letter to U.S. President- 4 face new challenges. Because I did not been without anthropogenic CO2? elect Barack Obama calling for a coordinated approach to receive enough holiday greeting cards, I Again, a question for science. It is . decided to write about climate. That tougher to prove energy, economic and environmental policies should fill the “in box!” causation, but many Recently I was confronted by a friend agree the data, to the What in the world just happened? When it comes to global 8 regarding my “ignorant” views on global extent and quality that , it turns out a lot happened in 2008 – and a warming – seemingly because I am they exist, indicate oil discoveries president of the AAPG. I don’t think the “yes.” However, we are lot of it happened in Latin America. friend knows much about my political dealing with a highly views, much less my understanding – or complex, nonlinear Two unconventional gas plays with superstar appeal lack thereof – of climate science, system that is extremely 10 paleoclimate, carbon sequestration or difficult to model. similar to the Haynesville and Marcellus shales are making other areas of salient research. But she Tinker this winter a hot season for British Columbia. knows I am president of the AAPG and Is global warming thus may be “climate challenged.” “bad,” or is it possible warming could also Past, but not forgotten: For more than 20 years the untapped Welcome to the global warming be “good?” In other words, could there be 14 debate, where science, politics and geographic winners and losers as the potential of Canada’s East Georges Bank Basin has passion have become so entwined that earth warms? tantalized explorationists – and its day of truth is getting closer. they may be impossible to separate, and These are questions for science, otherwise reasonable people on both economics and politics. The answers may “sides” of the issue can become ardently be more complex than generally thought. All in the family: The three top field discoveries worldwide 20 irrational. last year share a common “home” – all are located offshore Are you a believer or a denier? What Can be Done? southeastern Brazil in the Santos Basin. Friends, these are not scientific terms. If warm is more bad than good, is there something that can be done *** technologically to mitigate (slow/reverse) Tough times in the industry? Perhaps. But that’s SO last 24 the anthropogenic component of year’s thinking. From a hiring standpoint, it may be a lot I’ll begin with a few contextual warming? better than you think – especially for those just starting their disclosures. A question for science. Many, including I view science, crudely, in terms of members of AAPG, are working on this careers. questions of curiosity: Why? How? challenging problem, including carbon Questions can lead to hypotheses capture and storage , measuring, (“theories” in the vernacular), which can monitoring and verifying , and Meet an AAPG award-winning couple that’s about to take 40 lead to experimentation, data collection, compression, transport and injection their geologic expertise to students in Bahrain – and who, reduction, interpretation and conclusion. infrastructure. like many couples involved in the same profession, has a Interpretations and conclusions are then challenged, tested, repeated and, What Should be Done? marriage that is as much defined by their work as their work perhaps, result in scientific theories, which If there are technological solutions, is by their marriage. are fact-based bodies of evidence that are what is the probability of success – and substantiated and made robust by can the solutions be accomplished in time additional data and testing, such as the to mitigate the anthropogenic component theory of plate tectonics or the theory of of warming? evolution. A question for science and economics. I view politics in terms of questions of Many are beginning to work on this Professional News Briefs 33 Membership and Certification 49 economics and people. Who? What? problem. Geophysical Corner 34 Readers’ Forum 50 Well-intended to be sure, but at the end Washington Watch 36 Spotlight On … 50 of the day, if you follow the money and If there are technological solutions to opinion polls, you usually can sift through mitigate warming, can we afford to Regions and Sections 38 Classified Ads 52 much of the hyperbole, passion and implement those solutions? www.Update 44 Director’s Corner 54 philosophy to unravel the underpinnings of A question for economics and politics. political discourse. Some are discussing this problem. Foundation Update 46 DPA Column 54 Passion involves powerful emotions, In Memory 47 boundless enthusiasm and, taken to the Rather than mitigating warming, extreme, zeal. When passion becomes would investments be better used to zeal, reasoned arguments are often prepare and adapt? What is the proper difficult. Zeal and objectivity do not often balance between mitigation/adaptation? AAPG Headquarters – 1-800-364-2274 (U.S. & Canada only), others 1-918-584-2555 good bedfellows make. Questions for science, Within this context, is it possible to economics/politics and philosophy. Communications Director Correspondents Advertising Coordinator Larry Nation David Brown Brenda Merideth deconvolve science, politics and passion Not many are discussing this critical e-mail: [email protected] Louise S. Durham P.O. Box 979 in the global-warming conversation? issue openly yet. Susan Eaton Tulsa, Okla. 74101 At this point, I am doubtful. Managing Editor Barry Friedman telephone: (918) 560-2647 However, in the spirit of giving it a try, Given that both mitigation and Vern Stefanic (U.S. and Canada only: 1- let me pose some questions intended adaptation will be expensive – and at the e-mail: [email protected] Graphics/Production 800-288-7636) simply to help frame the conversation and same time will create new economic move a tad closer to a set of policy opportunities – how should costs be Rusty Johnson (Note: The above number is for Communications Project e-mail: [email protected] advertising purposes only.) decisions that make scientific and borne? Coordinator fax: (918) 560-2636 economic sense. Colleagues with a wide A question for economics and politics. Susie Moore e-mail: [email protected] array of backgrounds and expertise are Cap and trade is the popular mantra, e-mail: [email protected] doing similar things as we all work to but this solution struggles to be develop tangible, realistic actions. transparent, avoid waste, be predictable, Vol. 30, No. 1 The AAPG EXPLORER (ISSN 0195-2986) is published monthly for members. Published at AAPG headquarters, 1444 S. use revenues wisely, permeate the Boulder Ave., P.O. Box 979, Tulsa, Okla. 74101, (918) 584-2555. e-mail address: [email protected] Is It Happening? Is It Bad? economy and be reasonably stable. Periodicals postage paid at Tulsa, Okla., and at additional mailing offices. Printed in the U.S.A. Note to members: $6 of annual dues pays for one year’s subscription to the EXPLORER. Airmail service for members: $55. Is the earth warming? If so, how fast? A carbon tax comes closer, but Subscription rates for non-members: $75 for 12 issues; add $72 for airmail service. Advertising rates: Contact Brenda This is a question for science. Most politicians to date have not shown the Merideth, AAPG headquarters. Subscriptions: Contact Veta McCoy, AAPG headquarters. Unsolicited manuscripts, photographs and videos must be accompanied by a stamped, self-addressed envelope to ensure return. agree that the data, in the aggregate, fortitude to tax, and industry leaders are indicate an overall warming trend. We all mostly keeping mum, although some are The American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) does not endorse or recommend any products or services that may be cited, used or discussed in AAPG publications or in presentations at events associated with AAPG. know that the earth has warmed many, beginning to speak up about their many times in the past and, as in the past, preference for a tax. Copyright 2009 by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved. POSTMASTER: Please send address changes to AAPG EXPLORER, P.O. Box 979, Tulsa, Okla. 74101. it will likely cool again. This is not the major Canada Publication Number 40046336. issue. Return undeliverable Canadian address to: P.O. Box 503, RPO West Beaver Creek, Richmond Hill, ON L4B 4R6 Has anthropogenic CO2 caused See President, next page JANUARY 2009 4 Tinker Letter Suggests Bridge to Future A coordinated approach to energy, interesting paradox: A healthy environment advocate energy security,” which would energy and environmental policies to economic and environmental policies was requires a healthy economy, that economy emphasize: deliberately and progressively achieve this called for in a letter delivered to U.S. requires energy, and today that energy is Enhanced energy efficiency. shift to a new energy future.
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