Navigating the payments matrix BetweenCharting aevolution course andamid revolution evolution and Payments to 2025 and Beyond revolution THE FUTURE OF FINANCIAL SERVICES PAYMENTS 2025 & BEYOND 2 | PwC Navigating the payments matrix Foreword Dear reader, The financial-services industry is in the midst of a We are therefore delighted that the first report we are significant transformation, accelerated by the COVID-19 launching in our 2025 & Beyond series focuses on the pandemic. And given the key role digitisation plays payments industry and the key themes that are influencing in the financial lives of more and more of the world’s it. How the industry responds to these trends will define population, electronic payments are at the epicentre of both how successful it is in the coming years and its this transformation. impact on society overall. Payments are increasingly becoming cashless, and We hope that you find these insights helpful and the industry’s role in fostering inclusion has become provocative. Please feel free to reach out to me and my a significant priority. Payments also are supporting colleagues with your comments and feedback. the development of digital economies and are driving innovation—all while functioning as a stable backbone for Sincerely, our economies. Peter C. Pollini Principal, PwC US [email protected] 3 | PwC Navigating the payments matrix Figure 1: Cashless transaction volume will more than double by 2030 Where are Number of cashless transactions in billions 61% we now? GROWTH Total 3,026 82% GROWTH Sending a text to pay for a bus ticket in 1,818 Turkey, using a QR code to buy groceries in China, or tapping a sales terminal with Total 1,882 a mobile phone in the US. Even before COVID-19, these ways of paying for 1,032 Total 1,035 goods and services were evidence of a steady shift to digital payments—a shift that might ultimately lead to a cashless global society. Global cashless payment volumes are set to increase by more than 80% from 494 522 2020 to 2025, from about 1tn transactions to almost 375 349 73 105 111 1.9tn, and to almost triple by 2030, according to 59 229 258 494 180 172 165 analysis by PwC and Strategy&, PwC’s strategy consulting business. 2020 2025 2030 Asia-Pacific Africa Europe Latin America US/Canada Asia-Pacific Africa Europe Latin America US/Canada Asia-Pacific Africa Europe Latin America US/Canada Asia-Pacific will grow fastest, with cashless transaction volume increasing by 109% from 2020 to 2025 and then by 76% from 2025 to 2030, followed by Africa (78%, 64%) and Europe (64%, 39%). Latin America comes next (52%, 48%), and the US and Canada will Note: Cashless transaction totals for 2025 and 2030 are projections. have the least rapid growth (43%, 35%) (see Figure 1). Source: PwC Strategy& global payments model, 2021 This means that by 2030, the number of cashless transactions per capita will be roughly double to triple the current level, across regions (see Figure 2). 4 | PwC Navigating the payments matrix During COVID-19 lockdowns, many people adopted Figure 2: Cashless uptake is projected to rapidly increase through 2030 digital behaviours, accelerating the proliferation of mobile-first digital economies and rendering cash even 1000 less relevant to daily life than it already was (although in The payments less developed economies, cash remained essential). In 900 our latest global survey of banking, fintech and payments industry advanced organisations, 89% of respondents agreed that the in an irreversible 800 shift towards e-commerce would continue to increase, quantum leap during requiring significant investment in online payment COVID-19, which 700 solutions. Not only that, but a large majority (97%) will have massive agreed that there will be a move towards more real-time consequences for 600 payments. years to come.” Beneath the shift to cashless lies a larger, more profound 500 Marc-Henri Desportes, change. Not only are traditional ways of paying for goods Deputy CEO, Worldline, and services—including the humble paper check and a global payments and 400 analogue invoices—set for radical transformation, but the transactional services entire infrastructure of payments is being reshaped, with company 300 Cashless transactions per capita new business models emerging. 200 That reshaping involves two parallel trends: an evolution of the front- and back-end parts of the payment system (instant payments; bill payments and request to pay; 100 and plastic cards and digital wallets) and a revolution involving huge structural changes to the payment mix and 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 ecosystem (emergence of so-called ‘buy now, pay later’ offerings; cryptocurrencies; and work underway on central Year bank digital currencies). Asia-Pacific Africa Europe Latin America US and Canada Both evolution and revolution are sweeping the globe, Note: Transactions for 2025 and 2030 are projections. but in different ways and at different paces, creating Source: PwC Strategy& global payments model, 2021 a complex payments matrix. Many organisations are trying to figure out where to play and how to win in that matrix, as evidenced by the intense level of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity since 2017. 5 | PwC Navigating the payments matrix Trends driving M&A activity Fast-growing Asian markets are driving new business The key asset in all of this is data. Payments generate models and innovation. In China, Alipay and WeChat roughly 90% of banks’ useful customer data— • Processor consolidation. This has been a Pay, which are owned, respectively, by e-commerce information about who is buying what, how much US-led trend, dominated by the pursuit of giants Ant Group and Tencent, have created a new and when. This is creating new revenue streams for domestic scale, culminating in three landmark, paradigm with ‘super-apps’ as payments platforms. payments businesses that can monetise that data, yet it multibillion-dollar deals in 2019: the acquisition In our latest global survey of senior financial-services also exposes them to risks related to data privacy. by Global Payments of TSYS; Fiserv buying executives, 78% of respondents said Asian institutions First Data; and FIS acquiring Worldpay. will move at a faster pace on globalisation and In our survey, data privacy and cybersecurity were, convergence than the rest of the world up to 2025, as one category, the top concern (48%) in terms • Merchant services. Another trend is spreading and those in Europe and the Americas will struggle to of the impact of regulatory changes over the next across the US and Europe. Examples include keep up. five years. This far outstrips second-ranked digital Italian payment processor Nexi in 2020 buying identity and authentication (31%), and is well ahead of Danish rival Nets to form a pan-European Given their rising strategic significance, some cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies merchant services player and the acquisition governments are developing payments infrastructure (CBDCs) (ranked joint fifth at 28%). of Ingenico by French firm Worldline the same as part of industrial policy to control money flows year, following its purchase of Swiss-based and own digital and data platforms. These changes Recent developments in how money moves—and even SIX Payment Services in 2018. have resulted in a mushrooming of domestic payment what defines money—are the most profound changes methods on the back of that infrastructure, such as that we’ll see in the payments industry for decades to • Car d networks moving closer to the user. Troy in Turkey, Mir in Russia, and Brazil’s Elo and come. How the payments matrix develops will depend This trend started with Mastercard acquiring Pix systems. on how banks, technology companies, regulators, UK’s Vocalink in 2016, and then purchasing governments and consumers respond to these changes. Nets’s account-to-account business in 2020, The sector has also become increasingly important as a year that also saw Visa’s attempt to buy a catalyst for reducing transaction costs, fostering Plaid, an open banking aggregator. growth and supporting the transition towards digitally enabled and inclusive economies. In developing • Global mobile wallets and ‘super-apps.’ economic regions in Africa, payments are growing faster A nascent theme could become one of the than the global average and are allowing millions of biggest. Alipay has been pursuing a global unbanked people to gain access to goods and services mobile wallet play with multiple investments without cash. in domestic mobile wallets and franchises in Asia. Big Tech firms are also investing in leading payment technologies globally. 6 | PwC Navigating the payments matrix Six macro trends affecting the future of payments Six macro trends—driven by a combination of consumer preference, technology, regulation and M&A—will determine how the next five years play out (see Figure 3). We believe leadership teams need to understand each of these trends in order to properly plan for their future. Figure 3: Six payments macro trends Inclusion and trust Battle of the rails • Two-pronged strategies and opportunity will drive • Payment initiation is changing from cards and accounts to 1 consumer and merchant inclusion (especially across 4 digital wallets that are supported by open banking. Africa, Latin America and Asia). • Regulators will force the industry to strengthen domestic • Focus on mobile money, wallets, and domestic and QR infrastructure for payments. code solutions will ensure reach and low cost. • Consumers in emerging markets are leapfrogging the ‘card • Central banks will maintain their role in ensuring privacy, age’ and migrating directly to mobile wallets and stability and trust in new providers, payment methods and account-based payments. the financial system. • Both traditional card networks and domestic wallet solutions will be challenged to connect ‘open loop’ Digital currencies payments with cross-border payments to retain relevance.