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Diapositiva 1 July 14th, 2016 Company Update Rating: Colombia, Equities Buy Industry: ETB Telecoms & Media Fever for fiber After the strong performance in the name since our upgrade to BUY in Oct-15 (total return of +20.4% compared to 8.1% the COLCAP), we are setting our 2016 TP at COP 720 with a BUY Company Data recommendation. The new TP and rating consider a successful Ticker etb cb sale process of ETB. Price (COP) 590 . Sale process ahead looks promising. ETB is going through a LTM Range (COP) 485 - 619 process (Law 226) to sell the 86.6% stake of the District in the Target 720 company. The Bogota Council approved the sale process on Ex pected Return 22.0% May 30th as part of Bogota’s Development Plan, and according to the management, the sale to the general public should be Market Cap (USD mn) 714 ready by the second half of 2017. Shares Outstanding (mn) 3,551 Free Float 13.0% . Strategic shift in the company’s outlook. The prior administration invested 2 COP tn in the modernization of ETB’s ADTV (USD mn) 0.3 infrastructure, which allowed the company to have a stronger stream of income in business lines other than copper networks. This gives the company a new competitive outlook. ADTV and Performance . The potential entry of a strategic investor should be value 130 6 enhancing for current shareholders. We consider that with a strategic and experienced majority shareholder, ETB could see 120 5 important improvements in three fronts i) commercial strategy, 110 improving market shares, ii) efficiency, improving margins and 4 100 iii) corporate governance, allowing it to carry on its strategy 3 90 consistently in the long term. USDmn 2 80 . Current administration aligned with a sale process. There 1 were important changes in management with the appointment of 70 new CEO, Jorge Castellanos and new CFO Diana Baron, who 60 0 have a investment banking background, preparing the path for a Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 sale process. ETB COLCAP . Shares look undervalued supporting a constructive view. ETB is trading at a 5.7x 2016E EV/EBITDA multiple, compared to an industry median of 6.1x. Further, ETB is trading slightly CREDICORP CAPITAL EQUITY RESEARCH bellow 1x P/BV, and it could not be sold bellow 1x P/BV on a possible sale process according to regulation. Steffania Mosquera +(571) 339 44 00 ext. 1025 Valuation Sumary [email protected] 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E EV/EBITDA 2.1x 4.2x 5.7x 4.4x 3.8x Camilo Forero P/E n.a n.a n.a 33.3x 34.9x +(571) 339 44 00 ext. 1002 P/BV 0.6x 0.8x 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x [email protected] Div Yield 3.4% 21.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Sources: Company Reports and Credicorp Capital; E Credicorp Capital Estimates Credicorp Capital may do or seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 16 to1 19 . Analyst Certification on Page 16. Additional disclosures on page 19. ETB - Company Summary Company description Sector: Telecoms & Media Empresa de Telecomunicaciones de Bogotá (ETB) is a telecommunications prov ider w ith a strong position in Bogotá Rating: Buy w ith almost a 130 y ears ex perience. The company currently prov ides local and long-distance fix ed-line serv ices Target Price: 720 (52.3% market share in Bogota) and broadband serv ices (33.8% market share in Bogota), TV serv ices (4.5% in Bogota) mobile v oice and internet. Stock Data Ticker etb cb Price (COP) 590 Positives Concerns LTM Range 485 - 619 - Attractiv e relativ e v aluation - Commercial capacity to gain market shares in Market Cap (USD mn) 714 - Strong brand recognition and presence in Bogota mobile and TV Shares Outstanding(mn) 3,551 - Only operator dev eloping FTTH - Highly competitiv e market Free Float 12% - Decreasing trend in ETB's customers ADTV (USD mn) 0.3 -Capacity to obtain profits from inv estments Revenues Breakdown (as of March 2016) Income Statement COP mn 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Rev enues 1,416,447 1,460,006 1,535,752 1,723,659 1,945,315 Data Other 11% 13% EBIT 29,429 (252,439) 28,844 152,186 152,433 EBITDA 554,639 402,525 391,159 508,091 583,594 Internet Mobile Net Income (37,757) (36,538) (26,898) 62,269 59,357 28% 7% EPS (COP) -10.6 -10.3 -7.6 17.5 16.7 TV EBIT Margin 2.1% -17.3% 1.9% 8.8% 7.8% 3% EBITDA Margin 39.2% 27.6% 25.5% 29.5% 30.0% Net Margin -2.7% -2.5% -1.8% 3.6% 3.1% Fixed- Balance Sheet line 38% COP mn 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Cash & Equiv alents 1,122,769 613,115 366,675 410,087 466,206 Other Current Assets 468,993 518,969 560,850 622,079 702,408 Ownership Structure Long Term Assets 3,195,188 3,766,347 3,919,532 4,053,108 4,154,608 Total Assets 4,786,951 4,898,431 4,847,057 5,085,274 5,323,222 Financial Debt 530,238 530,180 582,055 758,863 888,451 Other Liabilities 1,438,886 2,089,639 2,013,289 2,012,429 2,061,432 Universidad Bogotá D.C. Total liabilities 1,969,124 2,619,819 2,595,343 2,771,292 2,949,883 Distrital 86.6% 1.8%Foreign Shareholder's equity 2,817,827 2,278,612 2,251,714 2,313,982 2,373,339 Funds Total liabilities + Equity 4,786,951 4,898,431 4,847,057 5,085,274 5,323,222 2.7% EBITDA / Fin. Ex penses 5.5 19.6 8.9 7.5 7.8 Others Net Debt (638,955) (132,666) 167,288 300,685 374,153 9.9% Net Debt / EBITDA (1.2) (0.3) 0.4 0.6 0.6 Financial Debt / Equity 18.8% 23.3% 25.8% 32.8% 37.4% ROAE -2.7% -1.4% -1.2% 2.7% 2.5% ROAA -0.8% -0.7% -0.6% 1.2% 1.1% ROIC 1.2% -5.0% 0.6% 3.0% 2.7% Management Cash Flow CEO: Jorge Catellanos COP mn 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E CFO: Diana Barón Initial Cash 960,286 861,909 585,357 366,675 410,087 IR Manager: Eugenia Londoño Cash from Operation 667,043 1,044,333 237,039 453,784 558,424 w w w .etb.com.co CAPEX (703,267) (849,163) (598,618) (652,343) (695,524) Changes in Financial Debt (445) (58) 51,875 176,808 129,588 Div idends (Paid) Receiv ed (61,709) (471,664) 0 0 0 Sources: Company Reports, Bloomberg and Other CFI & CFF Items 0 0 91,022 65,162 63,632 Credicorp Capital; E Credicorp Capital Estimates Final Cash 861,909 585,357 366,675 410,087 466,206 Change in Cash (98,378) (276,552) (218,682) 43,412 56,119 2 Investment thesis: we believe the sale process will bring value to the table Transformation process driving shares. Shares have strongly outperformed since 2014. The main driver of the shares has been the visibility of the transformation process of the company as investments in optic fiber, mobile 4G networks and cloud computing have ETB made COP 2 tn been deployed. Its new optical fiber infrastructure places ETB as the only player who investments to delivers Fiber to the Home (FTTH) technology to households, giving it an important renew its competitive advantage, offering the highest speed in the market (150 Mbps) and the technology, these possibility of bundling with high end TV services. Its low saturated 4G spectrum allows ETB investments have to give a service compatible with high video consumption, the latest trend of the industry driven shares since and its cloud computing services are in line with tendencies of services for companies. We 2014. believe current market prices do not incorporate the potential growth ETB could have on its top line with this new infrastructure, supporting our BUY recommendation. Reiterate buy on increased expectation for change in control. We believe recent political change at the District of Bogotá has dramatically improved the outlook of the shares through an increased likelihood of the sale of the controlling stake of ETB. In our valuation exercise we are factoring in such sale by 2017. We believe this sale is highly A change of control likely due to the fact the district has made its development plan including funds obtained for ETB towards a from the sale of ETB, which was approved by Bogota Council on May 30th. ETB also strategic buyer is changed its management in line with this strategy, incorporating a new CEO and CFO with highly likely under strong IB and M&A experience. This helps setting a favorable environment for a sale current process both externally, with the political voice of Bogota’s administration, and internally by circumstances. preparing the financial information and improving it by cutting inefficiencies. We believe given ETB’s recent investments in infrastructure and its strong position in Bogota, a strategic purchase is the most likely outcome of the sale process.
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