Chapter 5 Regional Development Study Development Frameworks

CHAPTER 5. DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORKS

5.1 Socioeconomic Framework

Socioeconomic frameworks for the Jericho regional development plan are first discussed in terms of population, employment, and then gross domestic product (GDP) in the .

5.1.1 Population and Employment

The population of the and Gaza totals 3.76 million in 2005, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) estimation.1 Of this total, the West Bank has 2.37 million residents (see the table below). Population growth of the West Bank and Gaza between 1997 and 2005 was 3.3%, while that of the West Bank was slightly lower.

In the Rift Valley , including refugee camps, there are 88,912 residents; 42,268 in the Jericho and 46,644 in the district2. Population growth in the Jordan Rift Valley area is 3.7%, which is higher than that of the West Bank and Gaza.

Table 5.1.1 Population Trends (1997-2005) (Unit: number) Locality 1997 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 CAGR West Bank and Gaza 2,895,683 3,275,389 3,394,046 3,514,868 3,637,529 3,762,005 3.3% West Bank 1,873,476 2,087,259 2,157,674 2,228,759 2,300,293 2,372,216 3.0% 31,412 37,066 38,968 40,894 40,909 42,268 3.8% Tubas District 35,176 41,067 43,110 45,187 45,168 46,644 3.6% Study Area 66,588 78,133 82,078 86,081 86,077 88,912 3.7% Study Area (Excl. Camps) 56,344 66,107 69,443 72,828 72,823 75,221 3.7% Source: PCBS

According to the socioeconomic survey conducted by the JICA Study Team, the average number of family members in the Jordan Rift Valley area is 7.8. Among the five target areas of the survey, households in the Jordan Rift Valley villages of have the largest number of family members, 9.3, while households in Jericho are the smallest with an average household size of 6.4 family members (see the following table).

1 Although there have been different estimations by other authorities, this Study follows the PCBS estimation. 2 The Jordan Rift Valley area contains 13,691 registered refugees.

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Table 5.1.2 Average Family Size by Area (Unit: number) Area Family Size Jericho 6.4 Al ‘Auja 8.5 Tubas 7.4 Area surrounding Tubas 7.6 villages of Nablus 9.3 Overall 7.8 Source: Socioeconomic Survey, JICA Study Team

Working age population (all persons aged 15 years old and over) in the total of the West Bank and Gaza and the West Bank alone constitute 53.7% and 55.6%, respectively. The Jordan Rift Valley area also has the same level as the West Bank with the ratio of 55.6%.

Based on the population projection for the West Bank by the PCBS, the natural increases in population in the Jordan Rift Valley area have been estimated at the local level up to 2015.3 The total population of the region (including refugee camps) is estimated to be about 103,000 in 2010 and 116,000 in 2015. The Jordan Rift Valley population is predicted to grow at an average annual rate of 2.7% in 2005-2015. The following table summarizes the population of each locality in the region.

Table 5.1.3 Population Framework in the Jordan Rift Valley area (Unit: number) Locality 2005 2010 2015 CAGR WEST BANK AND GAZA 3,762,005 4,409,684 5,091,314 3.1% WEST BANK 2,372,216 2,736,899 3,110,489 2.7% Marj Na'ja 743 858 972 - Az Zubeidat 1,299 1,498 1,698 - Marj al Ghazal 373 431 488 - Al Jiftlik 4,264 4,921 5,575 - 872 1,006 1,140 - Al 'Auja 3,886 4,484 5,080 - An Nuwei'ma 1,128 1,303 1,476 - 'Ein ad Duyuk al Foqa 789 910 1,031 - 'Ein as Sultan Camp 1,972 2,277 2,579 - 'Ein ad Duyuk at Tahta 937 1,081 1,225 - Jericho (Ariha) 19,783 22,830 25,863 - Aqbat Jaber Camp 6,147 7,093 8,035 - Other Localities 75 85 96 - JERICHO GOVERNORATE 42,268 48,777 55,258 2.7%

3 As argued in Section 5.4, PNA, notably MoP, considers that the Jordan Rift Valley area could be a possible location for further migration intake at the time of future establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Indeed, the JICA Study Team estimates that allowable capacity of the population in the region is about 200,000 from the perspective of water availability. However, because of its highly political nature, the JICA Study Team does not consider this plan in preparing the population forecast. Consequently, the economic frameworks presented in the Table 5.1.6 have been formulated without consideration of the possible immigration.

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(Continued) Locality 2005 2010 2015 CAGR 1,528 1,764 1,998 - 'Ein el Beida 1,048 1,209 1,370 - 160 185 209 - 'Aqqaba 5,885 6,791 7,693 - 2,323 2,681 3,037 - Al Farisiya 207 238 270 - Ath Thaghra 250 289 327 - Al Malih 200 230 261 - Tubas 15,591 17,992 20,382 - Ras al Far'a 679 784 888 - El Far'a Camp 5,572 6,431 7,285 - al Far'a 2,269 2,618 2,966 - 10,119 11,677 13,229 - Al Hadidiya 177 205 232 - Other Localities 636 734 831 - TUBAS DISTRICT 46,644 53,826 60,978 2.7% STUDY AREA 88,912 102,603 116,237 2.7% STUDY AREA (Excl. Camps) 75,221 86,803 98,337 2.7% Note: 2005-2006: revised mid-year population projection, Small Area Statistics 2005 (website) 2007: revised mid-year population projection (website) 2008-2015: JICA study team estimation according to the PCBS projected growth rate of the West Bank Source: PCBS; JICA Study Team Estimation

The rate of working age population will increase from 55.6% in 2005 to 58.6% in 2010 and 61.1% in 2015.

The West Bank and Gaza experienced a significant increase in the rate from 1999 to 35% West Bank and Gaza 2002 (see the figure). Although there has been 30% modest improvement since 2002, it remains as high 25% as 26.8% in the West Bank and Gaza (2004) and 20% 23.8% in the West Bank (2003). The Jordan Rift 15% 10% West Bank Valley area appears to have more or less the same 5% unemployment rate. 0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 In terms of distribution of employed persons by (Est.) economic activity, the tertiary industries, especially Source: PCBS Figure 5.1.1 Unemployment Rate (1999-2004) services, constitute the largest portion, both in the total of the West Bank and Gaza and the West Bank (see the following table). Although there is not enough statistical data available at the governorate level, Jericho appears to have a similar distribution pattern of employed persons while Tubas appears to have a much higher proportion of agricultural population.

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Table 5.1.4 Distribution of Employed Persons by Economic Activity (2004) West Bank & Economic Activity West Bank & Gaza & Jericho Tubas Primary Industry Agriculture, Hunting & Fisheries 15.9% 16.9% 15.9% 35.4% Secondary Industry , Quarrying, & Manufacturing 12.7% 14.0% 17.3% 8.6% Construction 11.7% 13.0% 16.4% 10.3% Tertiary Industry Commerce, Hotels & Restaurants 19.4% 20.9% 14.0% 18.0% Transportation, Storage & Communication 5.4% 5.7% 6.3% 3.5% Services & Branches 34.9% 29.5% 30.1% 24.2% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: PCBS

5.1.2 Economic Trends

The Palestinian economy has endured numerous economic distortions in the last four decades, becoming a captive market for Israeli goods and highly dependent on the export of unskilled labor to . Since its outbreak in 2000, the —especially because of the heavy restrictions on movement—has been causing an economic catastrophe for the Palestinian economy. GDP has fallen by 15.4% in the West Bank and Gaza and 8.5% in the West Bank (see the table below). Likewise, GDP per capita in the West Bank and Gaza has declined by 24.7% and in the West Bank by 23.9%.

The Palestinian economy has stagnated to the heavy movement restrictions imposed. Many stopped trying to return to jobs in Israel or to reach markets elsewhere in the West Bank. Smaller, less profitable businesses have been established in response to the closures, to serve communities which were no longer able to travel to urban centers.

Table 5.1.5 Macroeconomic Indicators (1999-2004) Indicators 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 West Bank and Gaza GDP (Mill. US$; 1997 Prices) 4,883.4 4,619.2 4,325.7 4,169.3 4,165.3 4,131.2 Real Growth Rate (%) 8.9% -5.4% -6.4% -3.6% -0.1% -0.8% GDP per Capita (US$; 1997 Prices) 1,617.2 1,466.4 1,311.2 1,203.4 1,272.3 1,217.8 Real Growth Rate (%) 4.5% -9.3% -10.6% -8.2% 5.7% -4.3% West Bank GDP (Mill. US$; 1997 Prices) 3,113.9 2,933.0 2,747.6 2,647.4 2,874.0 2,850.5 Real GDP Growth Rate (%) 12.5% -5.8% -6.3% -3.6% 8.6% -0.8% GDP per Capita (US$; 1997 Prices) 1,819.7 1,644.3 1,471.4 1,350.3 1,445.9 1,384.0 Real Growth Rate (%) 8.0% -9.6% -10.5% -8.2% 7.1% -4.3% Source: PCBS

The following figure presents the structure of the Palestinian economy in 2004. The primary industry constitutes only 10% of the whole, while the secondary and tertiary industries contribute 19% and 71%, respectively. Although there is no statistical data available for the Jordan Rift Valley area, it seems that primary industry would occupy a greater proportion.

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Agriculture & Others Fisheries 9% 10% Mining, Public Manufacturing, Administration Electricity & & Defense Water 16% 14%

Construction 5%

Wholesale & Retail Trade Services 10% 25% Transport Financial 8% Intermediation 3% Source: PCBS Figure 5.1.2 GDP Contribution by Economic Activity (2004)

5.1.3 Macroeconomic Scenarios under Existing Plans

Formulated by MoP, the MTDP contains two contrasting macroeconomic scenarios for the West Bank and Gaza for 2006-2008, namely, “Status Quo” and “Permanent Resolution” scenarios. The former assumes that average annual GDP growth rates would be somewhere between 0.5% and 6.7%. The latter, on the other hand, forecasts that GDP growth rates would be as much as 12.3%. The MTDP explains that the “Status Quo” scenario is prepared based on the current complex political environment, while the “Permanent Resolution” scenario shows the possibility of Palestinian economic recovery with a much more favorable political situation.

The report, titled “Stagnation or Revival?: Israeli Disengagement and Palestinian Economic Prospects”, also includes the discussion of economic development, presenting three alternative scenarios, namely, “Status Quo,” “Disengagement Plus,” and “Economic Recovery” for 2005-2008. “Status Quo” assumes almost zero GDP growth, while “Disengagement Plus” and “Economic Recovery” envision 2-7% and 3-11% annual growth rates, respectively.

5.1.4 Regional Macroeconomic Framework for the West Bank4

With reference to the above scenarios for the national economy, the JICA Study Team would propose three alternative macroeconomic scenarios for the West Bank economy:

4 The unavailability of macroeconomic statistics at the governorate level has made it difficult to formulate specific macroeconomic scenarios for the Jericho and Jordan Rift Valley area.

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(i) High growth case: “Economic Recovery” scenario; (ii) Moderate growth case: “Pre-Intifada” scenario; and, (iii) Low growth case: “Status Quo Plus” scenario. Selected macroeconomic indicators for each case are presented in the following table.

Table 5.1.6 Macroeconomic Frameworks for the West Bank Scenario 2005 2010 2015 High Growth GDP (Mill. US$; 1997 Prices) 3,058.6 4,966.7 6,900.7 Real Growth Rate (%) 7.3% 8.4% 6.8% GDP per Capita (US$; 1997 Prices) 1,289.3 1,814.7 2,218.5 Real Growth Rate (%) 4.0% 5.5% 4.1% Moderate Growth GDP (Mill. US$; 1997 Prices) 3,011.6 3,817.3 4,461.0 Real GDP Growth Rate (%) 5.7% 4.4% 4.0% GDP per Capita (US$; 1997 Prices) 1,269.5 1,394.8 1,434.2 Real Growth Rate (%) 2.5% 1.6% 0.6% Low Growth GDP (Mill. US$; 1997 Prices) 2,936.0 3,174.5 3,411.3 Real GDP Growth Rate (%) 3.0% 1.5% 1.4% GDP per Capita (US$; 1997 Prices) 1,237.7 1,159.9 1,096.7 Real Growth Rate (%) -0.1% -1.2% -1.1% Source: JICA Study Team Estimation

The high growth case has been formulated based on the “Permanent Resolution” scenario proposed in MTDP, while the low growth case has been based on the “Status Quo” scenario also in the plan. The moderate growth case has been prepared so as to recover the GDP level, which would have been attained around 2005 if the Second Intifada had not occurred and consequently the economic growth for 1994-1999 had continued. The average annual growth rates are to be 8.5% for the high growth case, 4.0% for the moderate case, and 1.5% for the low growth case.

In all three scenarios, GDPs per capita are to achieve lower growth rates than GDPs themselves, because of expected population increase. Indeed, the pre-Intifada level in 1999 can be recovered only with the high growth case.

The macroeconomic frameworks above were discussed in working group meetings and workshops and agreed to by the participants. However, since the establishment of the new in March 2006, a number of international donor activities have been held in abeyance and an even stronger closure has been imposed by Israel. This would negatively affect the economy. The minimum 2.7% GDP growth would be necessary in order to keep the same GDP per capita level in 2015.

5.2 Visitors to Jericho

Because of the historical and cultural heritages in the Jericho and Jordan Rift Valley area, as discussed in Chapter 2.1, any development plan of the West Bank and Jericho area cannot be formulated only on the basis of the socio-economic framework. Since visitors to Jericho have various impacts on regional development, they will form a basis of the regional development frameworks.

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5.2.1 Regional

The tourism networks in the region have common cultural, historical and natural backgrounds. In fact, tour programs are composed of destinations in more than two countries. This is because the tourism in the region is regarded as one unit of a regional tourism network by tour operators and customers.

to to

Mediterranean Sea Tiberius Jericho

Bethlehem Karak

Masada

Gaza

To

Red Sea To

To Sharm El-Sheikh

Source: MoTA and JICA Study Team Figure 5.2.1 Regional Tourism networks

In the region, was a dominating tourism country until 2002. In addition to its rich archaeological assets, the seaside resort area in the has been developed under the “New Tourism Development Strategy” of the Egyptian government since 1995, attracting resort tourist markets from the USA and and accounting for nearly half of the total tourist visits into the region. The second largest tourism country in the region is Jordan, having rich tourism resources connected with the Old Testament, trade of Nabateans, battle of Salahdin and Crusaders and other assets attracting over 40% of tourist visits in the region.

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Both Palestine and Israel suffered serious 2nd Intifada damage to tourism from the Second Intifada in 15000 2000. After the Intifada, the tourist visits have Palestine dropped to one tenth in Palestine and less than 10000 Israel half in Israel.

Jordan 5000 5.2.2 Tourist Arrivals in Palestine Egypt Despite its uniqueness, Palestinian tourism is 0 Total not playing a major role in the region, attracting 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 only 8% of the tourist visits in the region even (Unit: 1,000) before the Second Intifada. This is due mainly Source: MoTA (Palestine), MoTA (Jordan), MoT (Israel), WTO Compendium of Tourist to the political instability that threatens easy Figure 5.2.1 Tourism Arrivals in the Region access of the tourists, especially Free Independent Travelers (FITs). The decrease in the European tourists was notable, namely 1/30 after the Second Intifada.

Compared to the drastic decrease in foreign tourists, domestic tourists are recovering quickly. In 2003, domestic tourists recovered to the level before the Second Intifada, due to the efforts of the Palestinian people to promote educational excursions and association tourism. The following table shows the tourist arrivals in Palestine by nationality.

Table 5.2.1 Tourist Arrivals in Palestine by Nationality (Unit: number) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 176,000 181,000211,000 23,000 1,400 5,800 Europe 488,000 608,000717,000 25,000 4,700 18,600 East Asia and Pacific 33,000 38,000 43,000 7,000 1,000 7,900 13,000 17,000 21,000 2,000 100 600 31,000 45,000 42,000 - - - Others 25,000 18,00021,000 2,000 100 300 International Tourists 766,666 907,000 1,055,000 81,000 9,400 46,000 103,000 Palestinian Tourists 101,000 123,000 97,000 59,000 74,000 103,000 Grand Total 867,666 1,030,000 1,152,000 140,000 83,400 149,000 Source: WTO Compendium of Palestinian Tourism

5.2.3 Tourism Arrivals in Jericho

Jericho is located on the crossroads of the east-west tourist corridor from Jerusalem to Amman, and the north-south tourist corridor from Tiberias to Eilat, having an immense potential to attract tourists who have diversified tourism objectives, such as pilgrimage tourism, cultural tourism, resort tourism and nature tourism including eco-tourism.

The following table shows the number of visitors to Jericho for the period from 1998 to 2005. Before the Second Intifada, visitors to Jericho were 230,000-290,000 per annum, but they drastically dropped

5-8 Chapter 5 JERICHO Regional Development Study Development Frameworks after the Second Intifada. It gradually recovered to the level of around 100,000 in 2005.

('000) 300,000 1,000 100,000 300

Foreigner 200 Palestinian

2nd Intifada 100

0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 year

Source: MoTA, Jericho Branch Figure 5.2.2 Numbers of Visitors to Jericho

Tourism arrivals in Jericho have a strong seasonal fluctuation. This comes from the climatic reason and school season. Jericho is located 300 m below the sea level and the heat in summer is extremely high, over 40 degrees C, and is uncomfortable for tourists. On the other hand, the winter climate is mild and attracts many wintering domestic tourists from Jerusalem, Bethlehem, Nablus and where they have cold highland winter climates. The seasonal fluctuation is shown in the following figure.

50,000 45,000 1998 40,000 1999 35,000 2000 30,000 2001 25,000 2002 20,000 2003 15,000 2004 10,000 5,000 2005 0

pr ay ug ep ct ov Jan Feb Mar A M Jun Jul A S O N Dec

Source: MoTA Figure 5.2.3 Seasonal Fluctuation of Visitors in Jericho

5.2.4 Impacts of the Second Intifada

After the , visitors to Jericho increased steadily, and 231,612 tourists visited Jericho in 2000 to enjoy cultural heritage sites, e.g., es-Sultan, Hisham’s Umayyad Palace and the Ancient . In 1999, the number of overnight tourists reached 30,800, and the average annual hotel accommodation occupancy rate in Jericho was 47.8%. Tourism supported about 190 restaurants and 50 souvenir shops. The tourism sector has been a leading industry to generate jobs and revenues for Jericho.

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The Second Intifada has destroyed the favorable growth of the tourism industry in Jericho. The number of visitors suddenly fell to 1,385 in 2001 or 0.6% of the previous year. The estimated loss caused by the Second Intifada in the tourism sector is shown in the following table.

Table 5.2.2 Loss of Business in the Tourism Sector by the Second Intifada (Unit: NIS) Governorate / Tour Tourism Tour Souvenir Accommodation Restaurants Total District operators Transport Guides Shops Jerusalem 96,791,957 71,156,311 57,183,152 13,714,848 193,896,357 39,540,509 472,283,134 Bethlehem 47,886,547 22,236,347 1,485,277 12,752,402 77,558,543. 59,310,764 221,229,880 Jericho 17,943,304 - - - 5,721,532 34,597,846 58,262,682 Nablus 4,556,580 1,778,908 - - 1,868,284 17,298,973 25,502,745 Ramallah 22,047,057 7,116,631 - - 1,907,177 27,184,100 58,254,965 3,056,588 1,778,908 - - 1,606,875 - 6,442,371 Jenin and 367,923 869,262 742,639 - - 9,885,127 11,864,951 Tulkarem Gaza 19,896,124 889,454 - - 1,271,452 34,597,945 56,654,975 Total 212,546,080 105,825,82159,411,068 26,467,250 283,830,220 222,415,264 910,495,703 Source: MoTA

The following table also shows impacts of the Second Intifada on Jericho tourism. The sudden decrease in tourists seriously affected the employment in the tourism related industries, especially hotels and restaurants. It is estimated that the unemployment in the tourism sector reached 95% during the period from 2000 to 2003.

Table 5.2.3 Impacts of the Second Intifada on Tourism Related Sector in Jericho (Unit: number.) Employment (Staff Level) Period Hotels Restaurants Souvenir Shops Cable Car Oasis Casino Before the 2nd Intifada 301 189 50 75 1900 After the 2nd Intifada 72 29 9 15 0 Number of Visitors Period Tell es-Sultan Hisham’s Palace Ancient Synagogue Before the 2nd Intifada 232,973 36,738 4,837 After the 2nd Intifada 930 316 8 (0.4%) (0/9%) (0.2%) Source: MoTA

Recovery of the tourism sector started in 2003 with a recovery of domestic tourism. In 2004, the number of domestic visitors to the Hisham’s Palace completely recovered to the level of 1999. Although the arrival of foreign tourists to Jericho increased in 2004 and 2005, the number of foreign visitors still remains at the level of 10% of the arrivals in 1999.

5.2.5 Tourism Development Framework

A development framework for Jericho tourism has been discussed at the Tourism Working Group in the course of this Study, and the following three alternative development scenarios have been elaborated.

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(1) Alternative I (Low Growth Scenario)

This scenario is based on the assumption that the tourism arrivals in Palestine would recover to the level of 2000 or before the Second Intifada (1,152,000). It is based on the picture that the basic political situation will remain unchanged, but reinforcement is expected in tourism promotion, upgrading of tourist sites, and certain relaxation of the restrictions and controls on the mobility of the domestic people. The targeted tourist arrivals are set to be 1,500,000 to Palestine and 200,000 to Jericho in 2010.

(2) Alternative II (Moderate Growth Scenario)

This scenario is based on the assumption that tourism development would be maximized within the prevailing political framework, but the restrictions and controls under the closure system would be relaxed by cooperation of the authorities concerned in the region for promotion of regional tourism. The targeted number of tourist arrivals is set to be 2,000,000 to Palestine and 400,000 to Jericho in 2010.

(3) Alternative III (High Growth Scenario)

This scenario is based on the assumption that tourism development would be maximized with the free mobilization of tourists, especially for Palestinian tourists, and improvements are attained in cultural heritages, beautification of Jericho town, investments in hotels, tourism relating industries and infrastructure. The cooperative regional tourism promotion would generate international and regional tourism to Jericho. The targeted number of tourist arrivals is set to be 5 million to Palestine and 1 million to Jericho in 2010.

Table 5.2.4 Alternative Tourism Scenarios in Palestine in 2010 2010 2000 2004 Alt. I Alt. II Alt. III Tourist Arrivals in Palestine 1,152,000 103,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 5,000,000 Overnight Tourists 278,767 268,695 450,000 700,000 2,000,000 Average Duration of Stay (nights) 3.5 3.5 3.5 4 4.5 Bed Nights 975,684 940,432 1,575,000 2,800,000 9,000,000 Hotel Rooms 1,572 1,515 2,540 4,475 14,500 Employment 5,715 n.a 6,000 10,000 25,000 Tourism Receipts US$ 226 mill. n.a US$ 300 mill US$ 400 mill US$ 1,000 mill Source: MoTA and JICA Study Team The following table shows summarized alternatives for visitors to Jericho in 2010 and 2015.

Table 5.2.5 Alternative Tourism Scenarios in Jericho in 2010 and 2015 2004 2010 2015 Actual Alt. I Alt. II Alt. III Alt. I Alt. II Alt. III Tourist Arrivals in Jericho 98,248 200,000 400,000 1,000,000 300,000 670,000 1,760,000 Overnight Tourists 33,000 125,000 240,000 600,000 187,500 402,000 1,056,000 Average Duration of Stay 1.0 1.5 2.5 4 1.5 2.5 4 (nights) Bed Nights 33,000 187,500 600,000 2,400,000 187,500 600,000 2,400,000 Hotel Rooms 323 323 386 967 323 386 967 Employment 250 2,6503,100 4,600 3,000 6,700 17,600 Tourism Receipts $ 12 mill $ 42 mill $ 101 mill $ 350 mill $ 68 mill $ 251 mill $ 1,056 mill Source: MoTA and JICA Study Team

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5.3 Limitation of Land Resources

The Jordan Rift Valley area has unique topography and environment, and land resources are rather limited, especially for agricultural use. The availability of land resources, therefore, constitutes one of the development frameworks in the region.

5.3.1 Current Land Use in Jordan Rift Valley

Figure 5.3.1 shows the present land cover condition in Area A the Study area. The total area is 1,093 km2, covering all Jericho governorate, Tubas district and part of . The agricultural area is concentrated in the Tubas highland area and scattered Area B in the lower Jordan Rift Valley along the .

As noted in Chapter 2.3, rain-fed agriculture is almost impracticable in this area, except in the Tubas highland where the estimated annual rainfall is more than 350 mm. Agricultural areas in the lower Jordan Rift Valley exist where spring water or groundwater resources are available. Area A The built-up areas are generally located adjacent to the agricultural areas. Consequently, most communities in the Jordan Rift Valley are dependent on the agricultural sector for economic activities. Source: MoP Figure 5.3.1 Current Land Use in Study Area

The current land use distribution is summarized as follows:

Table 5.3.1 Current Land Use Distribution of the Study Area (Unit: km2) Land Cover Area A Area B Total Agricultural areas 86 36 219 342 Palestinian Communities 16 2 47 65 0 0 17 17 Military Base 13 3 67 84 Others 32 16 537 586 148 58 887 1,093 Total (13.5%) (5.3%) (81.2%) (100.0%) Source: MoP

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5.3.2 Limitation in Land Development

The unused areas (586 km2) are sizable, or 53 % of the whole study area. However, it has limitations in development due to several constraints. The major ones are the topography, natural environment and political control.

(1) Topographic Limitation

Figure 5.3.2 shows the areas having steep slopes of more than 20° in gradient. Such sloped areas extend to the west of Jericho governorate, and are called the eastern slope of the Jordan Rift Valley. The slope is known for outlets of spring water from the eastern aquifer to the Jordan Rift Valley. Due to the topographic difficulties, no development activities would be considered in Source: MoP this sloped area that covers 131.5 km2 or 12 % Figure 5.3.2 Location of Steep Slope Area of the whole Study area.

(2) Environmental Limitation

Figure 5.3.3 shows the natural reserve areas in the Study area, which have been selected by the Israeli government after its occupation in 1967 and agreed to by the concerned Palestinian representative in 1993. They cover a total area of 153 km2 or 14 % of the Study area.

The natural reserves are classified into the following.

- Mountain area along wadi basins for water resources conservation, - River terraces along the Jordan River for conservation of flora and fauna, - Some other reasons, which could not be specified. Source: MoP Figure 5.3.3 Natural Reserve Areas

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The natural reserve areas would not be considered for further land development. However, it would be necessary to investigate and monitor the condition of natural reserve areas in the view of environmental conservation as well as wise use for sustainable human activities such as water resources development and soil conservation.

(3) Political Limitation

The Study area has been under occupation by Israel since 1967, and land development is strictly controlled. Three categories have been agreed under the Oslo Accords in 1993 in the following manner:

Table 5.3.2 Political Limitation of Land Development in the Study Area Category Condition Area (km2/%) Area A Under control of PNA both for administration and security 148 (13.6%) Under control of PNA for administration, and Israeli Area B 58 (5.3%) Government for security Under control of Israeli Government both for administration Area C 887 (81.1%) and security Total 1,093 (100.0%) Source: JICA Study Team, MoP

According to the agreement, about 81% of the Study area is fully controlled by the Israeli government. Any activity in Area C needs prior application and approval from the Israeli government. According to the local people, such activities as house renovation, school rehabilitation, well rehabilitation, road improvement and so on are not allowed or take a lengthy period for approval by the Israeli government. Under such conditions, it appears unrealistic for the Palestinian people in the Jordan Rift Valley area to formulate development plans in Area C.

5.3.3 Required Extension of Built-up Area

Average population density is relatively low or 86 persons/km2, which is 1/50 of the density in the (3,523 persons/km2). The built-up areas in the Study area are generally small in size, reflecting the Palestinian regulations for urban planning. Under the regulation, an average built-up area is defined to be 212 m2/person, while the average density of build-up area in the Study area is estimated to be 206 m3/person.

Through discussions at the Spatial Planning Working Group in the course of the Study, the required build-up area in 2015 has been estimated based the existing and future population projections, the existing urban pattern (fabric), the existing and proposed urban densities, and the availability and suitability of land. The following table shows the population, existing built-up area, and proposed extension of the built-up area in 2015.

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Table 5.3.3 Built Up Area and Required Land Extension in 2015

Build-up Build-up area per Required Extension (m2) Additional Population Governorate / Area (m2) person in2003 in 2015 Area for No. Local Authority District (m2 / person) Additional Industrial 2003 2010 2015 as of 2003 Total Area 2003 2015 Area Purposes 1 Al Jiftlik 3,966 4,949 5,557 121,000 31 70 388,990 267,990 2 Marg Na'ja 692 861 969 295,000 426 417 404,073 109,073 3 Az Zubeidat 1,208 1,504 1,692 905,000 749 701 1,186,092 281,092 4 Fasayil 811 1,010 1,136 222,000 274 283 321,488 99,488 5 Al' Auja 3,614 4,501 5,063 731,000 202 221 1,118,923 387,923 6 An Nuwei'ma 1,050 1,307 1,471 462,000 440 429 631,059 169,059 Jericho 7 Ein ad Duyuk al foqa 734 914 1,028 404,000 550 526 540,728 136,728 8 Ein as Sultant Camp 1,835 2,285 2,571 1,030,000 561 536 1,378,056 348,056 9 Ein ad Duyuk at Tahta 871 1,084 1,220 509,000 584 556 678,320 169,320 10 Jericho 18,398 22,915 25,778 4,264,000 232 247 6,367,166 2,103,166 11 Aqbat Jaber Camp 5,716 7,120 8,010 1,912,000 334 337 2,699,370 787,370 Sub-Total 38,895 48,450 54,495 10,855,000 15,714,265 4,859,265 12 Bardala 1,430 1,781 2,004 353,000 247 260 521,040 168,040 13 'Ein el Beida 980 1,220 1,373 165,000 168 191 262,243 97,243 14 Kardala 150 187 210 20,000 133 159 33,390 13,390 15 'Aqqaba 5,505 6,857 7,713 680,000 124 152 1,172,376 492,376 16 Tayasir 2,173 2,706 3,044 300,000 138 165 502,260 202,260 1,565,000 17 Al Farisiya 193 241 271 8,000 41 80 21,680 13,680 18 Ath Thaqhra 235 292 329 83,000 353 354 116,466 33,466 Tubas 19 Al Malih 187 233 262 37,000 198 219 57,378 20,378 20 Tubas 14,584 18,165 20,434 2,088,000 143 169 3,453,346 1,365,346 21 Ras al Far'a 636 792 891 4,000 6 49 43,659 39,659 22 El Far'a Camp 5,213 6,492 7,304 384,000 74 108 788,832 404,832 23 Wadi al Far'a 2,123 2,644 2,974 583,000 275 284 844,616 261,616 24 Tamun 9,466 11,790 13,263 1,652,000 175 197 2,612,811 960,811 Sub-Total 42,875 53,400 60,072 6,357,000 10,430,097 4,073,097 25 Albadhan 2,228 2,775 3,122 442,000 198 218 680,596 238,596 26 Annassariya 1,245 1,551 1,745 187,000 150 176 307,120 120,120 27 Alaqrabaniya 824 1,026 1,154 230,000 279 289 333,506 103,506 28 Ein Shibli 182 227 256 161,000 885 819 209,664 48,664 Nablus 29 Frush Beit Dajan 1,066 1,328 1,494 240,000 225 242 361,548 121,548 30 Beit Dajan 3,301 4,112 4,626 416,000 126 154 712,404 296,404 31 2,466 3,072 3,456 298,000 121 150 518,400 220,400 Sub-Total 11,312 14,091 15,853 1,974,000 3,123,238 1,149,238

Total 93,082 115,941 130,420 19,186,000 206 224 29,267,600 10,081,600 1,565,000 ( including New Industry Area) 236 30,832,600 Source: JICA Study Team / MoP estimate

The current Palestinian built-up area is estimated to be 19.2 km2, accounting for 1.7% of the Study area. Based on the estimated population growth, the required built up area would be increased up to 29.2 km2 in 2015, or increase by 63% compared to the current condition.

Particularly, the following six municipalities/councils would require sizable extension of the built-up area:

Table 5.3.4 Priority Municipalities /Village Councils Requiring Extension of Built-up Area Present Required Additional Population in Built-up Area Built-up area Built-up Area No. Municipality / Council 2015 in 2015 (m2) (m2) (m2) 1 Jericho 25,778 4,264,000 6,367,000 2,103,000 2 Tubas 20,434 2,088,000 3,453,000 1,365,000 3 Tammun 13,263 1,652,000 2,612,000 960,000 4 Aqbat Jaber Camp 8,010 1,912,000 2,699,000 787,000 5 ‘Aqqaba 7,713 680,000 1,172,000 492,000 6 El Far’a Camp 7,304 384,000 788,000 404,000 Source: JICA Study Team estimate

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Tubas municipality will require a significantly wide area for expansion of the urban area. The municipality has prepared a new urban development plan in 1997 covering the area of 7.5km2, and they are waiting for approval by the high planning council of the national government.

Those communities located in Areas A and B would have fewer difficulties in extending the 15. Aqqaba 18. Ath Thaqhra 16. Tayasir 12. Bardala built-up area, but the villages located in Area C 14. Kardala 20. Tubas 13. Ein el Beida have difficulties in expansion. For instance, Al 22. El Far'a Camp 17. Al Farisiya Jiftlik village is located in Area C and the 21. Ras al Far'a 19. Al Malih 23. Wadi al Far'a 2 existing built-up area is 0.12 km for the 25. Al Badhan population of around 4,000 (2003), or equivalent 31. Talluza 2 24. Tammun to 30 m /person (14% of the Palestinian 2. Marg Na'ja 3. Az Zubaidat 27. Araqrabaniya regulation). The extension of the built up area 26. An Nasiriya

requires prior application and approval by the 28. Ein Shibli

Israeli government. 30.Beit Dajan 29.Frush Beit Dajan The MoLG is assisting the municipalities and 1.Al Jiftlik 4. Fasayil village councils in formulating their urban 5. Al Auja

6. An Nuwei'ma development plans. For approval of the urban 7. Ein Duyuk al Foqa

8. Ein as Sultan Camp pans, three steps are required by the local 9. Ein Duyuk al Tahta 10. Jericho 11. Aqbat Jaber Camp planning committee, the regional planning committee and the high planning council. The Required Urban Development Area in 2015 Required Extesion more than 1km2 respective municipalities and village councils Required Extension less than 1 km2 should formulate their own development plan No need of Extension according to the urban planning regulation. Source: JICA Study Team, MoP Figure 5.3.4 Location and Required Extension of Built-up Area

5.3.4 Potential Area for Agricultural Development

Based on the current land use, topography, soils and environmental considerations, three major areas are identified as potential areas for agricultural development. They are:

(i) Bardala/Kardala and Wadi Malih Area (ii) Wadi al Far’a Basin and Al Jiftlik Area (iii) Greater Jericho Area

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Bardala/Kardala and Wadi Malih Area is located to the north of the Jordan Rift Valley. Bardala / Kardara & The population is sparse and sizable un-used land Wadi Malih Area areas exist. Major parts of the un-used land areas are outside of the natural reserve areas. The available land for agricultural development Wadi Far'a Basin & is estimated to be 93 km2 or 34% of the total land, Jiftlic Area as calculated in Table 5.3.5. There are spring water resources in Bardala/Kardala and Wadi Malih basin.

However, all the area lies in Area C and is fully Greater Jericho Area controlled by the Israeli government. In addition, there are few people living in this area and sizable migration would take a lengthy period. Bardala/Kardala and Wadi Malih Basin area is, therefore, identified as a future development zone.

Existing Agriculture Area Steep slope Area (>20%) Natural Reserve Area Area A AreaB

Source: JICA Study Team, MoP Figure 5.3.5 Potential Area for Agricultural Development

Table 5.3.5 Current Land Use, Constrained Area, Area of Agriculture in Bardala/Kardala and Wadi Malih Basin (Unit: km2) Current Land Use Land Cover Area A Area B Area C Total Agricultural areas 0 0 21 21 Palestinian Communitie 0 0 12 12

Area Israeli Settlement 0 0 2 2 Built-up Military Base 0 0 52 52 Others 0 0 188 188 Biult-up area Total 0 0 275 275 31.7% Constrained Area Limitation Area A Area B Area C Total Slope 20% and over 0 0 0 0 onst Area C rained Natural reserve 0 0 58 58 Constrained area Total 0 0 58 58 21.1% Area of Agriculture High Value Agriculture Area A Area B Area C Total Middle to High value 0 0 231 231 Agriculture Low Value Low value 0 0 44 44 16.0% Total 0 0 275 275

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Summary Unavailable for development = 181 km2 (66%) Potential for Agricultural development = 93 km2 (34%)

Wadi al Far’a Basin and Al Jiftlik Area is identified to be a major agricultural area in the Study area. Water resources are available along the Wadi al Far’a River, inclusive of potential water harvesting. However, most areas are within the natural reserve, and detailed investigation for environmental protection would need to be conducted. In addition, the major part of the Wadi al Far’a Basin and Al Jiftlik area belongs to Area C. The land development activities would therefore take time. The potential development area is estimated to be 40 km2, or 18 % of total land, as calculated in the following table.

Table 5.3.6 Current Land Use/Constrained Area/Area of Agriculture in Wadi al Far’a Basin and Al Jiftlik Area (Unit: km2) Land Cover Area A Area B Area C Total Agricultural areas 19 36 55 110 Palestinian Communitie 22 712

Area Israeli Settlement 0 0 3 3 Built-up Military Base 3 3 10 16 Others 5 16 54 75 Biult-up area Total 30 57 129 216 65.1%

Limitation Area A Area B Area C Total Slope 20% and over 0 0 7 7 d

raine Natural reserve 15 0 9 24 Constrained area Const Total 15 0 15 30 14.0%

Agriculture Area A Area B Area C Total Middle to High value 30 57 100 187 Agriculture Low Value Low value 0 0 29 29 13.4% Total 30 57 129 216

Summary Unavailable for development = 176 km2 (82%) Potential for Agricultural development = 40 km2 (18%)

The Greater Jericho area is located to the south of the Study area. Sizable un-used flat land extends to the south of Jericho city as well as between Jericho city and Al ’Auja village. Most of the un-used land is outside of the natural reserve area, and some part belongs to Area A. There are several spring water resources in this area. On the other hand, development is expected in the Greater Jericho area for various activities such as tourism, agro-processing, industry, trades and so on. The land use for the Greater Jericho, therefore, needs to be planned, not only for agricultural purposes but for the broader needs. The total un-used land area is estimated to be 88 km2, or 25 % of the total land, of which 14 km2 belongs to Area A.

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Table 5.3.7 Current Land Use/Constrained Area/Area of Agricultural Low value in Greater Jericho Area Land Cover Area A Area B Area C Total Agricultural areas 32 0 56 87 Palestinan Communit 10 0 16 26

Area Israeli Settlement 0 0 6 6 Built-up Military Base 5 0 21 26 Others 22 0 180 201 Biult-up area Total 69 0 278 347 42.0%

Limitation Area A Area B Area C Total r Slope 20% and over 12 0 16 28 onst Area ained

C Natural reserve 1 0 18 18 Constrained area Total 13 0 34 46 13.3%

Agriculture Area A Area B Area C Total Middle to High value 62 0 157 219 Agriculture Low Value Low value 7 0 121 128 36.9% Total 62 0 157 347

Summary Unavailable for development = 259 km2 (75%) Potential for Agricultural development = 88 km2 (25%)

5.3.5 Land Development/Management Framework

There are many constraints for land development in the Jericho and Jordan Rift Valley area. The most critical constraint is the occupational situation, by which about 81% of the total land cannot be developed under the current situation (refer to table 5.3.2).

Consequently, the land development plan in Area C appears to be unrealistic. It is, therefore, questionable whether development activities in Area C should be included in the master plan components or not.

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Source: Compiled by JICA Study Team Source: Compiled by JICA Study Team Figure 5.3.6 Built-up Area in 3 selected areas Figure 5.3.7 Constrained Area for Development in 3 selected areas

Source: Compiled by JICA Study Team Figure 5.3.8 Area of Agricultural Low Value in 3 selected areas

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The agricultural development potential, in terms of land availability, is summarized in the following table:

Table 5.3.8 Development Potential for Agricultural Land Extension in Three Sub- 1 2 3 4 5 = 3+4 6 Potential Total Area for Existing Agricultural Natural Agricultural Sub-Region Area (km2) Agricultural Development Reserve Area Development Area (Km2) Area for (Km2) (Km2) future (Km2) Area A & B Area C Total Bardala 21 93 114 58 /Kardala and 0 275 275 (7.6%) (33.8%) (41.4%) (21.0%) Wadi Malih Wadi al Far’a 110 40 150 24 87 129 216 and Al Jiftlik (51.0%) (18.5%) 69.4%) (11.1%) 87 88 175 18 Greater Jericho 69 278 347 (25.0%) (25.3%) (50.4%) (5.1%) Total 156 682 838 218 221 439 100 Source: JICA Study Team

It is estimated that the total existing agricultural land within the three sub-regions is 218 km2, accounting for 20% of the whole Jordan Rift Valley. In addition, 221 km2 of the total land classified into high or moderate values in land classification could be available for the future expansion of agricultural activities. Of this potential development land, 93 km2 is in the Bardala/Kadala and Wadi Malih area, and 88 km2 is in the Greater Jericho area. In Wadi Far’a valley and Al Jiftlik area, the available land for future agricultural expansion is limited to 40 km2.

Among three potential land development areas, the Greater Jericho area is the most realistic area for land development. Some parts of the un-used land are found within Area A. The development plan for this area should be prioritized in the future development.

For Wadi al Far’a valley and Al Jiftlik area, detailed investigation on the existing agricultural area and the natural reserve area should be conducted to realize land and water development. At the same time, discussions between the PNA and Israeli government would be continued for land utilization in Area C.

Consequently, the following are proposed for the land development framework and strategy.

(1) Expansion of the built-up area should be planned on the basis of the further population growth. Respective municipality and village councils need to formulate their urban development plans in accordance with the urban planning law and in consultation with the MoLG. (2) A detailed development plan for the Greater Jericho Area should be formulated. The area between Jericho city and Al ’Auja Village is a potential land development for agriculture. Some un-used land in Area A is found in the center of this development zone, and to the east and west spreads the un-used land in Area C. Agriculture, with some residential areas, would be developed with water conveyed from Jericho and ’Auja. Some agricultural activities (e.g. livestock) would be planned in the surrounding Area C. (3) Land and Water development in the Wadi Far’a and Al Jiftlik are other priority subjects for land development. However, it is found that the land availability for future agricultural expansion is

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limited in spite of its relatively high potential of water resources. In this area, improvement in the existing agricultural land would be planned for implementation at the initial stage. At the same time, a detailed investigation on the natural reserve area should be conducted. Major development components would include land and water management of the existing agriculture, improvement in Damiya-Tubas Road, construction of a large scale water harvesting scheme, and environmental conservation of Wadi al Far’a basin. (4) Bardala/Kardala and Wadi Malih basin would be designated for future development. The area could be planned in combination with the immigration plan. A new urban/rural development plan should be formulated for that purpose.

5.4 Available Water Resources

With small rainfall, as noted in Chapter 2.3, the Jericho and Jordan Rift Valley area has a severe limitation in water resources. Availability of water resources, therefore, constitutes another framework to be taken into account in formulating a regional development plan.

5.4.1 Existing Water Resources in Jordan Rift Valley (1) Groundwater

Available water resources in the Jordan Rift Valley are spring water and groundwater, which originate from the eastern aquifer. The figure shows the extent of the eastern aquifer, of which the basin boundary runs along the center of the West Bank from north to south through Nablus and Jerusalem.

Under the Oslo II Accords on 28 September 1995, Eastern Aquifer both Palestine and Israel recognized the need to protect the environment and utilize natural resources on a sustainable and environmentally sound basis, and to cooperate in sewage, solid waste and water issues. The agreement explicitly states that Israel recognizes Palestinian water rights, to be negotiated in the final talks without further elaboration on the nature of these rights, and the principles governing the rights and obligations of both parties. Article 12 expressly recognizes Source: PASSIA Figure 5.4.1 Groundwater Basins in the West Bank water as a natural resource.

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The Article 40, Annex III, Appendix 1 of the Accords deals with water allocation, referring to the immediate needs of the Palestinians. Water of 70-80 MCM/year has been allocated for the Palestinians, with 28.6 MCM/year from the eastern aquifer for immediate needs. The parties agreed to establish a Joint Water Committee (JWC) to serve as an institutional mechanism for the interim period, mainly to oversee the implementation of the Article 40. The following table presents the recognized water allocation under the Oslo II Accords.

Table 5.4.1 Water Allocation Recognized under Oslo II Accords Potential Used by Used by Remaining Aquifer Israel Palestine Quantities (MCM/yr) (MCM /yr) (MCM /yr) (MCM /yr) Eastern 172 40 54 70~80 Western 362 340 22 - Northeastern 145 103 42 - TOTAL 679 483 118 70~80 % of share 100% 71.1% 17.4% 11.5% Source: Document of Oslo II Accords, 28 September 1995

In the Jordan Rift Valley, 19 springs originate from the eastern aquifer and discharge to the eastern slope of the Valley. Total discharge is estimated to be about 42 MCM/year. For spring water, the water resources are generally located far from the demand areas. There are certain losses such as leakage, seepage and evaporation. The water conveyance loss is estimated to be about 30%, or 15 MCM/year according to the PWA.

For the extraction of groundwater, the eastern aquifer is the source of wells in the Study area except for part of Tubas district. As shown in Table 5.4.1 above, the Palestinian right of extraction from the eastern aquifer is 54 MCM/year, and 70-80 MCM/year for further development. Among them, the water extraction from the existing wells from the Jordan Rift Valley is estimated to be about 10 MCM/year.

Accordingly, the currently available water resources in the Jericho and the Jordan Rift Valley area are assumed as summarized in the following table.

Table 5.4.2 Available Water from Easter Aquifer in Jordan Rift Valley Springs Wells Total Water Resources (MCM/year) (MCM/year) (MCM/year) Annual Available Volume 27 10 37 Source: JICA Study Team estimate

(2) Surface Water

The only permanent surface water resource is the Jordan River. The Jordan River basin is the international basin shared by , Lebanon, Jordan, Israel and Palestine. An important benchmark of the agreement on international water allocation was made by four countries, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel in 1955, called the Johnston Agreement. At that time, the West Bank belonged to Jordan. The agreed water allocation of the Jordan River is summarized in the following.

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Table 5.4.3 Water Allocation of Jordan River recognized under Jhonston Agreement in 1955 Syria Lebanon Jordan Israel Total 132 MCM/yr 35 MCM/yr 720 MCM/yr 400 MCM/yr 1,287 MCM/yr 10.3% 2.7% 55.9% 31.1% 100% Source: PASSIA

Before 1967, Palestinians made use of water from the Jordan River through 140 pumping units for irrigation on the western terrace. However, these have been closed since 1967, and all pumping units have been demolished. The current utilization of the shared water of the Jordan River is summarized in the following table and illustrated in Figure 5.4.2.

Table 5.4.4 Current Water Utilization of the Jordan River (Unit: MCM/year) Syria Lebanon Jordan Israel Palestine Total 160 0 320 640 None 1,120 14.3% 0% 28.6% 57.1% 0% 100% Source: PASSIA

No surface water is currently extracted from the Jordan River by Palestine. The water allocation issues for the Jordan River are discussed between Jordan and Israel, and also between Jordan and Syria. There is no opportunity for Palestine to join the discussion on the international water allocation.

Sources: PASSIA Figure 5.4.2 Present Water Allocation in the Jordan River Basin 5-24 Chapter 5 JERICHO Regional Development Study Development Frameworks

5.4.2 Potential for Water Resources Development (1) New Water Resources

In the Jordan Rift Valley, three new water resources would be made available in the short and medium term. They are:

(i) Floodwater in Wadi basins in the Jordan Rift Valley, (ii) Recycled water from wastewater treatments plants in major cities/towns, and (iii) Brackish water on the lower terrace of the Jordan Rift Valley.

Floodwater in in the Jordan Rift Valley is the most probable new water resource in the future. The PWA estimates that the development potential would reach 28.5 MCM on an annual average (refer to Chapter 8.2 for further detail), which could be developed by means of conventional technologies. The captured floodwater would be recharged into the groundwater aquifer so that additional wells could be developed without additional extraction from the aquifer. It is also possible to have surface reservoirs with dams on wadis, though it would be dependent on the geological condition at the potential sites of dams and reservoirs. About 10 MCM/year of floodwater capture will be envisaged for the master plan formulation (see Chapter 8.2).

Water recycling from wastewater will be another water resource for irrigation purpose. Technologies have already been disseminated in Israel, in which about 40% of treated wastewater is currently utilized for irrigation. Wastewater from major cities on the central highland in the West Bank, such as Nablus, Ramallah, and would flow down to the Jordan River basin. The availability of recycled water depends on development of the sewerage network and treatment systems in such major cities. By assuming further improvements in the sewerage network systems in Nablus, Ramallah, East-Jerusalem and Jericho, it is provisionally expected that about 15 MCM/year of recycled water might be made available for irrigation (refer to Chapter 8.2 for further detail).

(2) Potential Water Resources according to the Progress in Peace Building

Further development potential of water resources has been discussed on various occasions with a view to how to provide a stable water supply for Palestine, having quite limited water resources and being obliged to depend on the international water conveyance system in long term. The following schemes have been preliminary discussed in the academic circles.

(i) Water desalinization from the and transport to the West Bank, (ii) Western Ghor Canal along the Jordan Rift Valley from the Lake Tiberias, and (iii) Peace water pipeline from .

Such international water conveyance schemes are future issues to discuss according to the progress in peace building in the Middle East, and not to be considered in this Study.

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5.4.3 Demand Side Management of Agricultural Water

As discussed in detail in Chapter 8.2, out of available 70,000 100% water resources of 41.6 MCM/year, including the 65,310 65,310 Field Crops 60,000 wells, 94% or 39.0 MCM/year are utilized Fruits 50,000 for agricultural purposes. From the viewpoint of ) water management in the Jordan Rift Valley, water 40,000 Ve ge table s saving agriculture or demand side water management 30,000 Cropping Area (dunum Area Cropping will be the most effective approach to water resource 20,000 development in the Jericho and Jordan Rift Valley 10,000 area (refer to Chapter 8.3 for detail). Green House 0 Present Future On the other hand, agriculture is one of the major Source: JICA Study Team sectors to lead regional economy in the Jordan Rift Figure 5.4.3 Assumed Major Crops Areas under Valley. Growth in the agricultural sector is needed Water Saving Agricultural Cropping Pattern for sustainable development of the Jordan Rift Valley, 300.0 which would require more water for production. Water saving agriculture therefore would contribute to 250.0 238.9 201% both water saving and production growth. 200.0 Field Crops A water saving agricultural approach for Jericho has 150.0 Fruits 118.8

been studied. A cropping pattern is assumed in view (mil.NIS) Production 100.0 of the production efficiency of land and water under Ve ge table s 50.0 the following assumptions: Gree n House 0.0 (i) Tomatoes and cucumbers cultivated in open Present Future

fields will be converted to green houses, Source: JICA Study Team (ii) Vegetables and fruits with low production Figure 5.4.4 Production of Major Crops under Water Saving Agriculture efficiencies like squash will be converted to 60

high efficiency crops such as potatoes, 50.8 130% 50 cucumbers and cauliflower, and 39.0 Field Crops (iii) Bananas, having low production efficiency 40 Fruits will be converted to dates, which have the 30 highest production efficiency by land and are 20

highly tolerant to chloride concentration. (MCM/year) Requirement Water Ve ge table s 10 Figures 5.4.3 through 5.4.5 compare the area, Gree n 0 House production and water requirements between the Present Future present cropping pattern and the assumed water Source: JICA Study Team saving cropping pattern. Figure 5.4.5 Water Requirement under Water Saving Agriculture The analysis indicates that the assumed water saving agriculture could increase production by 201%, with a much smaller increase in water requirements of 130%. The production efficiency could increase from

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NIS 3.04/m3 to NIS 4.71/m3 in gross margin under the assumed water saving agriculture. Consequently, variation of cropping patterns could attain an increase in production as well as decrease in water requirements. This should be the first action to be taken for integrated water management.

5.4.4 Water Resources Development Strategy and Framework

The following development strategies are recommended for water resources development and management in the Jordan Rift Valley area. The Jericho regional development plan will be formulated under such a framework.

Strategy 1: The first priority should be accorded to domestic water supply in water allocation. The target supply level in 2020 is 150 liters/capita/day, which is equivalent to the WHO and PWA standards.

Strategy 2: Promotion of water saving agriculture should be the first step for water management, which could make it possible to allocate more water for domestic purposes.

Strategy 3: Activities on reduction of water conveyance losses and rehabilitation of the existing water extraction facilities should be promoted as quickly as possible. At the same time, it is necessary to reform the water users committee to maintain the facilities and to manage water as a common asset of the Palestinian people.

Strategy 4: Practical water resource development, including floodwater capture along wadis and water recycling through development of sewerage networks will be programmed for mid-term implementation. Technical feasibility, however, should be assessed as quickly as possible to implement such projects.

Strategy 5: International water carrier schemes would be considered as a future vision in line with the progress in peace building. The assessment would be continued among the related countries at the academic level. Such schemes, however, will not be envisaged in the formulation of the master plan under this Study.

5.4.5 Water Demand in 2015

Based on the socio-economic framework, the population in 2015 is estimated to be 116,200 in the Jericho and Jordan Rift Valley area, without considering migration from outside of the Jordan Rift Valley.

Based on this estimate, the water demand, other than agriculture in the Valley, is estimated as summarized in the following table.

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Table 5.4.5 Municipal and Industrial Water Demand in 2015 Municipal & Industrial Demand (MCM/yr) Population Case Dom. Tour Public Livstck Indst. Total (persons) 3% 10% 15% Present Condition (2003) 86,081 3.1 Demand in 2015 116,237 5.4 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.2 7.8 Note: Details are discussed in Chapter 8.2. Source: JICA Study Team estimate

As proposed in the above Strategy 1, the water requirements for municipal and industrial use should be allocated prior to the agricultural water supply.

As noted above, promotion of water saving agriculture would create additional water available for irrigation. Agricultural water demand is estimated based on the assumed production efficiency of NIS 5.07/m3, which is equivalent to 202% of the present production efficiency (NIS 2.51/m3). This means that the water requirements in 2015 for the same production amount will be about half of the present water demand.

For the agricultural water demand, it is assumed that the growth rate of agricultural production would be the same as the GRDP growth rate in the West Bank, namely 4.4% per annum for 10 years from 2005 to 2015. On the other hand, agricultural production in the Jordan Rift Valley as of 2003 was estimated to be US$ 74.6 million. Taking the actual GRDP growth in the West Bank up to 200 and estimated future GRDP growth from 2005 to 2015, agricultural production is expected in the following manner.

Table 5.4.6 Assumed Agricultural Production in 2015 2003 2004 2005 2015 Agricultural Production (mil. US$) 74.6 74.0 80.8 156.3 Population 86,081 86,077 88,912 116,237 Per Capita Agri. Product (US$) 866.6 859.6 908.6 1,344.9 GRDP Growth Rate (%) -0.8 5.7% 4.4% Water Demand (mil.m3) 39.0 - - 81.8 (same cropping pattern 2005-2015) Water Demand (mil.m3) - - - 40.5 (water saving agricultural approach) Note: The growth rate of agricultural products is assumed to be the same as the growth rate of GRDP Source: JICA Study Team

Along with the above estimation, assumed agricultural production in the Jordan Rift Valley in 2015 is calculated to be US$ 156.3 million, if per capita GRDP in agriculture grows at the same rate as the estimated GRDP growth rate. The agricultural water demand is then figured out based on the improved water efficiency of 202% (NIS 2.51/m3 in 2005 Æ NIS 5.07/m3 in 2015). The water allocation for agriculture is thus estimated as follows:

US$ 156.3 million / US$ 74.6 million x 39.0 MCM / 202%= 40.5 MCM

Accordingly, water demand for agriculture use in 2015 with the application of water saving agriculture is assumed to be 40.5 MCM, which is only 3.8% higher than the present water consumption.

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5.5 Inter-Regional Development Potential from Viewpoint of Water Resources 5.5.1 Population Distribution and Water Resources

Current population density in the Jordan Rift Valley is estimated to be 86 persons/km2, which is much smaller than the West Bank (394 persons/km2), and the Gaza Strip (3,523 persons/km2).

Table 5.5.1 Population Distribution in the West Bank and Gaza The West Bank Items Jordan Rift Valley West Bank Gaza Strip and Gaza Area (km2) 995 5,655 365 6,020 Population (2003) 86,081 2,228,759 1,286,009 3,514,768 Pop. Density 86 394 3,523 583 (persons/km2) Source: JICA Study Team

The remarkable concentration of population in the Gaza Strip creates various social and economic issues, particularly the lack of land and water resources, while the Jordan Rift Valley is much less populated, or 1/40 of the population density compared to the Gaza Strip. The MoP contends the unbalanced population distribution in the West Bank and Gaza would eventually demand domestic migration from the Gaza and other places to the Jordan Rift Valley when a fully independent is realized. In this Section, therefore, a preliminary assessment of the allowable population capacity in the Jordan Rift Valley in terms of potential development of water resources is conducted from a wider viewpoint.

The Study on potential water resources development will be conducted later in Chapter 8.2. Along with the analysis, the potential volume of water resources in the Jordan Rift Valley is estimated as summarized in the following table. The maximum available water is estimated to be 82.6 MCM in the Jordan Rift Valley.

Table 5.5.2 Potential Water Resources in the Jordan Rift Valley (2015) Considered in Master Potential Development Source of Water Plan Capacity (MCM/year) (MCM/year) Currently Available Water 41.6 41.6 Reduction for loss of water in conveyance for 10.4 10.4 Spring water sources Rehabilitation of agricultural wells 5.6 5.6 New Wells 0.2 0.2 Floodwater capture along Wadis 28.6 10.0 Water recycling of sewerage collection system 33.9 14.8 Total Water Resources Development 120.1 82.6 Note: - Promotion of water saving agriculture is not included in this table. - The currently available water includes the Mekorot wells Source: JICA Study team estimate

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5.5.2 Allowable Population Redistribution Capacity in Jordan Rift Valley

Along with the water allocation policy of PNA, the priority for water allocation is for domestic purposes, and the remaining water is for agricultural purposes. Under such a principle, the allowable population capacity in the Jordan Rift Valley is provisionally assessed as summarized in the following table:

Table 5.5.3 Allowable Population Capacity of the Jordan Rift Valley (in terms of potential water resources development) Agricultural Water and Production Potential Population M&I Water Remaining Per Capita Population Water Assumed Density Demand Water for Agri. Resources Production Agriculture Production (persons) (persons/km2) (MCM/yr) (MCM/yr) (MCM/yr) (mil. US$) (US$/capita) 86,081 86 56.5 3.1 53.4 116,237 117 82.6 7.8 74.7 288.5 2,482 200,000 201 82.6 14.5 68.0 262.6 1,313 300,000 302 82.6 21.8 60.8 234.6 782 400,000 402 82.6 29.1 53.5 206.6 516 500,000 503 82.6 36.3 46.3 178.5 357 Source: JICA Study Team estimate

Out of the potential water resources in the Jordan Rift Valley, only spring water is suitable for domestic use. Total available volume of spring water after rehabilitation of the water conveyance system would be about 40 MCM/year. Accordingly, the absolute upper limit of population in the Jordan Rift Valley would be around 500,000. However, the available water for agriculture would then be only 46.3 MCM/year, with the assumed agricultural production of US$ 357/capita. This amount is only 26.5% of the present agricultural product (US$ 1,345/capita). The regional economy should depend more on sectors other than agriculture in order to sustain the regional economy.

If the agricultural sector of GRDP needs to be maintained at the present level (US$ 1,345/capita of the annual product), the allowable population in the Jordan Rift Valley would be around 200,000. In this case, no drastic change in the GRDP share by sector would be required. Consequently, the allowable population capacity in the Jordan Rift Valley would be around 200,000, though this would be highly dependent on the future economic structure of the Jordan Rift Valley.

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CHAPTER 6. INTEGRATED REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

6.1 Basic Strategy

The following six basic strategies are proposed in formulating an integrated regional development plan for the Jericho and Jordan Rift Valley area:

Basic Strategies

Basic Strategy 1: Jordan Rift Valley is treated as one cluster, strengthening linakges within the region

Basic Strategy 2: Inter-regional linkages are to be strengthened

Basic Strategy 3: Focal sub-regions are identified for efficient investments

Basic Strategy 4: Flexible development scenarios are set to be adjustable to future changes

Basic Strategy 5: Institutional set-up for program implementation

Basic Strategy 6: Capacity building is integrated into regional development and sector development activities

Basic Strategy 1: Jordan Rift Valley is treated as one cluster, strengthening linkages within the region

The Study area encompasses 26 local government units (LGUs) in Jericho governorate, Tubas district and Nablus governorate. The master plan is formulated in such a manner that the Jordan Rift Valley area is one cluster to seek the maximum regional benefit under the integrated regional development plan. Linkages in the region would be strengthened, for instance, through combining the agricultural and tourism activities. Farmers will provide tourists with fresh and/or processed agricultural products, as well as with the opportunity for agro-tourism, for their mutual benefits.

Basic Strategy 2: Inter-regional linkages are to be strengthened

The geographical uniqueness of the Jordan Rift Valley has various developmental potentials by strengthening the inter-regional linkages. The Study area is relatively well endowed with natural and

6-1 Chapter 6 JERICHO Regional Development Study Integrated Regional Development Plan cultural resources such as land, water, favorable climate for agriculture, and archeological sites. On the other hand, the population in the Study area is relatively small and the development resources are not well developed yet. Strengthening the inter-regional linkages would make it possible to utilize the geographical advantages and abundant resources for economic development, particularly in the agricultural and tourism sectors. This, in turn, implies that a division of labor will be promoted among several regions in the West Bank and Gaza, making the utmost use of resources available in each region.

Basic Strategy 3: Focal sub-regions are identified for efficient investments

Although the master plan covers the entire region, some focal sub-regions are to be identified for the

Bardala/Kardara execution of development activities effectively (Future) and efficiently. The focal points should be highly populated areas, crossroads/hubs of transportation networks, water resources, and Tubas Highland available land. In addition, the land administrative categories, “Areas A, B and C”, are to be considered. Only 13.6% of the Study area is so far classified as Area A, as noted in Wadi Far'a Valley Chapter 5.3.2. and Jiftlic

Given the above situations, three sub-regions are identified, i.e., (i) the Greater Jericho, (ii) Tubas Greater Jericho Highland, and (iii)Wadi al Far’a Valley and Jiftlik.

In addition, (iv) the Bardala/Kardala area is identified as a future development zone with the possibility to develop new towns and agricultural areas. Source: JICA Study Team / MoP The development direction in each sub-region is Figure 6.1.1 Proposed Development Centers in the envisaged as follows: Jordan Rift Valley

Sub-region 1: The Greater Jericho Æ Integrated urban development plan formulation (for International Tourism City) Æ Development of tourism infrastructures Æ Urban environmental consideration (Solid waste, sewerage) Æ Reservation of archeological resources Æ Water resources development (Storm water capture, water recycling) Æ Development of free trade zone / industrial zone (Agro-based Industry)

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Sub-region 2: Tubas Highland Æ Integrated community development (water, solid waste, schools, health sector, women) Æ Promotion of agro-processing industry ( oil, fruit, animal husbandry ) Sub-region 3: Wadi al Far’a Valley and Al Jiftlik Æ Water resources development and management (storm water capture, irrigation management, water recycling) Æ Agricultural development (hilly area development, promotion of agro-processing) Æ Agro-based industry/storage Æ Re-construction of Damiya Bridge for strengthening the agricultural linkage with the Eastern portion of the Jordan Rift Valley Æ Upgrading the Jiftlik-Nablus, Jiftlik-Tubas-Jenin Road

Basic Strategy 4: Flexible development scenarios are set to be adjustable to future changes

Progress in the peace process between Population Growth

Palestine and Israel would greatly affect Low Employment High Employment Rate Rate regional development in the West Bank. All GDP / Sector GDP / Poverty Level potential projects should therefore be assessed Same Trend based on Activating Economic by identifying constraints. The projects with the actual as of 2005 Activities fewer constraints could be implemented at an Low Development Scenario High Development Scenario earlier stage of the planning period. Figure 1. Rehabilitation of Agriculture Secotor 1. Drastic Increase of Agriculture Products 6.1.2 illustrates the strategy for flexible 2. Social Improvement Activities 2. Promotion of Export Oriented Agriculture 3. Promotion of Domestic Tourism 3. Promotion of Agro-Industry 4. Development Tourism Infrastructure 5. Promotion of Inter-regional Tourism development. 6. Strengthen Inter-regional Road Network 7. Development of Urban Centers 8. Development of Free Trade Zone Basic Strategy 5: Institutional set-up for 9. Development of Industrial Park 10. Establishment of Development Finance program implementation Constraints for Development

1. Peace Building Process The projects proposed for the master plan will 2. Water Availability 3. Environmental Sustainability 4. Financial Limitation cover various sectors that would be 5. Economic Feasibility 6. Time Limitation implemented by the different ministries/local 7. Human Resource Limitation 8. Institutional Capability governments, as well as by community-based organizations (CBOs). For the program implementation as an integrated regional Source: JICA Study Team development plan, en efficient implementation Figure 6.1.2 Flexible Development Scenarios body should be established to manage and coordinate the projects. For instance, Jordan Valley Authority in Jordan functions as the implementation and coordination agency to cover multi sector activities on the east side of the Jordan Rift Valley. The Joint Council for Service, Planning and Development (JCspd) under the Ministry of Local Government would be a candidate body as a regional development institution.

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Basic Strategy 6: Capacity building is integrated into regional development and sector development activities

Quick project implementation is expected by the people in the region. On the other hand, the government implementation agencies are not capable enough to operate various development and management activities in the short term, in the terms of administrative experience, number of staff, and management facilities. Capacity development, both for the government administration and the project beneficiaries, should always be integrated into the project implementation through the participatory approach.

6.2 Regional Corridors Development Concept

As noted in Chapter 2.5, Jericho is located in a unique position, i.e., at the crossroads of corridors. Such uniqueness should be utilized to the utmost extent in development of the Jordan Rift Valley area.

With due consideration of the current transport situations, the strategic importance from development perspectives and the regional development strategy, a total of seven corridors have been identified for promotion of smooth movement of people and goods. These would not only serve the people in the Jericho area, but also function as regional development corridors in the and the Middle East. The identified corridors are illustrated in the following figure, and their characteristics are described below:

Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.2.1 Future Corridors in and around the West Bank

(i) East-West Corridor The East-West Corridor is an international route connecting Egypt and Jordan through major cities in the West Bank and Gaza. Since Palestinian vehicles are prohibited to pass through the Israeli at the moment, the people and goods must use Israeli vehicles or transfer

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vehicles to cross between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with special permission. To improve the present condition, the Ministry of Planning has a plan to construct a road to directly connect both West Bank and Gaza. The East-West corridor will integrate and enhance the relationship between both by the construction of the road, and a more globalized economy will be created by linking up with port development in the Gaza. This corridor will constitute a part of the inter-continental corridor running through the Western Asia, the Middle East and North , as noted in Chapter 2.6.

(ii) North-South Corridor 1 The North-South Corridor 1 is connecting major cities in the West Bank. Ramallah will play the role of an administrative center, and have a close relation to the northern cities united by the corridors branched from Nablus and the southern cities.

(iii) North-South Corridor 2 The North-South Corridor 2 is a route along the Jordan Rift Valley among the Tiberias Lake, the Dead Sea and the , and contributes to provide good accessibility to other corridors for export of agricultural products in the Jordan Rift Valley. It links with the Mediterranean-Red Sea corridor at Jericho.

(iv) – Amman Corridor The Haifa-Amman Corridor would develop efficient and economical means of freight transport. The development keys are industrial development such as qualified agricultural zones and free trade/industrial zones to create export products and re-construction of the Damiya Bridge to cross the Jordan River.

(v) Tourism Corridor Along this corridor, there are numerous tourism spots, including archaeological sites and attractive resorts. This corridor runs via Jericho and provides good accessibility to tourists. It will greatly contribute to promotion of regional tourism development.

(vi) Mediterranean - Red Sea Corridor This corridor connects the Mediterranean Sea, the Dead Sea and the Red Sea, serving for goods produced in Israel. Since Israel is constructing the Trans-Israel Highway (Road No.6) in parallel with part of this corridor along the Dead Sea, Israeli vehicles may pass through the highway. This corridor is a desirable route for Palestine to export and import goods, as well.

(vii) QIZ Corridor The Qualified Industrial Zone (QIZ) corridor is mainly to export garment commodities from the QIZs in Jordan to Haifa port in Israel via a border crossing at Sheikh Hussein Bridge.

It is added that the Ministry of Transportation is planning to align Route M40 under the Agreement on International Roads in the Arab Mashreq adopted by the UN Economic and Social Commission for

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Western Asia (UNESCWA) to run along the North-South Corridor 1 up to Nablus and then the Haifa-Amman Corridor via the Damiya Bridge as an alternative to the East-West Corridor which is aligned in the same route originally planned to be Route M40. Such an alternative is to be further studied along with the study on industrial locations in the West Bank and the Jordan Rift Valley area.

6.3 Regional Spatial Structure 6.3.1 Structure Before 2000 (Before the Second Intifada)

The spatial structure of the West bank and Gaza before the Second Intifada is shown in Figure 6.3.1. There are three economic centers identified in the West Bank, i.e., Nablus, East Jerusalem and Hebron. Nablus was the center of economic activities, such as the procurement of inputs and marketing of products. Jericho city had a function as a gateway of the West Bank to Jordan, as well as the vegetable supplier for the West Bank and Israel.

The cities in the northern West Bank, such as Jenin, Tubas, Tulkarem, and Qalqilia were highly dependent on Nablus city for their economic and administrative activities. The transportation of the people and goods between cities within the West Bank was improved in pace with the national economic growth.

Urban Urban Scale Function

Tiberias Lake Full- function Major Urban Center Europe Mult- Haifa Jenin function Secondary Urban Center

Specific- function Sub-urban Center Tubas

Nablus New town Limited function

Ramallah Countries Jericho Amman Middle-East Europe

Tel Aviv East Jerusalem Regional Linkage Bethlehem

Inter-regional Axis

Dead Sea Strong linkage

Hebron Moderate linkage Gaza

Limited linkage

Minimum linkage EGYPT Red Sea

Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.3.1 Spatial Structure of the West Bank and Gaza (Before the Second Intifada in 2000)

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6.3.2 Present Structure (Year 2005)

Figure 6.3.2 presents the current regional spatial structure of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Many checkpoints have been established after the Second Intifada, and transportation of the people and goods between cities in the West Bank and Gaza has been severely restricted. Because of the disturbance of transportation networks, all major cities are isolated in economic and administrative activities. The two centers, Nablus and Hebron, have been notably affected in their economic activities. Nablus was isolated, and the scale of urban activities has diminished remarkably. Instead, such suburban cities as Jenin, Tubas, Tulkarem and Qalqilia, are forced to be independent from Nablus, and the urban functions in these cities became necessary to develop, such as government administrative service, input and marketing within respective cities, and job creation within the cities. In fact, checkpoints have accelerated “cantonization” by force in the West Bank.

Urban Tiberias Urban Scale Lake Function

Full- Haifa function Major Urban Center Europe Mult- Jenin function Secondary Urban Center Tulkarm Specific- Sub-urban function Tubas Center Qalqilya Nablus New town Limited function Amman Ramallah

Jericho Kwait Europe Tel Aviv East Jerusalem Regional Linkage Bethlehem

Inter-regional Axis Dead

Sea Strong linkage Hebron

Gaza Moderate linkage

Limited linkage

Minimum linkage EGYPT Red Sea

Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.3.2 Spatial Structure of the West Bank and Gaza (Present Condition: 2005)

Jericho city has been isolated from international markets, which were main sources of the economic activities of its citizens. International tourists have been blocked out and the tourism industry in Jericho has been kept inactive. Vegetable market in Israel is also blocked out, and only domestic sales remain for the Jericho economy. Unemployment rates increased sharply in Jericho, which lost job opportunities, particularly for those people staying in refugee camps. Farmers’ income dropped by 30 to 40% due to increase in farming input prices and dropped market prices as buyers from Israel are unavailable.

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Five years after the Second Intifada, however, the network circumstances are gradually improving. First, the gate from Gaza to Egypt was opened in December 2005 based on an agreement between Israel and Palestine. Although the Jericho entrance is still severely controlled by Israel, the volume of transportation has gradually increased. The number of tourists to Jericho also increased slowly, particularly domestic tourists.

6.3.3 Future Spatial Structure

Integration of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip would be the paramount issue for further regional spatial planning. Gaza is recognized as one of the highest population density areas with 3,520 persons/km2 (2003), to which strong network ties with the West Bank are essential for leading the Palestinian economy. At the same time, the gateway function at Jericho would be strengthened for regional integration. Amman – Jericho – Jerusalem – Bethlehem – Hebron – Gaza – Egypt could be the main international corridor for the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Ramallah would be in function as an administrative center of the West Bank. The linkage between Ramallah, East Jerusalem with the other major cities along the backbone of the West Bank, would be strengthened in the economic activities. Based on that, the North-South Corridor 1 via Jenin – Nablus – Ramallah / East Jerusalem / Bethlehem – Hebron would be strengthened.

Major cities in the northern West Bank would develop rather independently, as they have essential functions for economic and administrative activities as a result of the unexpected isolation or cantonization for five years. The decentralization should be promoted for respective urban development and effective linkage among the cities should be developed.

Cross-border cooperation in the Jordan Rift Valley between Palestine, Jordan and Israel is another focal issue for further development of the West Bank. The Jordan Rift Valley is expected to be an agro-based industrial center that would integrate the eastern side of the Jordan Rift Valley, which should not be a competitor to Palestine but it should be a partner for the promotion of export oriented agricultural business targeting the Europe and Gulf markets. Re-construction of the Damiya Bridge could be a key piece of infrastructure to stimulate agriculture and agro-based industry in the West Bank. The bridge is located in the center of the Jordan Rift Valley and would offer good access to such agricultural centers as Jericho, Tubas, Nablus and Jenin. The East Bank of the Jordan Rift Valley – Damiya – Tubas - Nablus - Jenin, and Haifa would form a main agricultural corridor to integrate the Jordan Rift Valley on both east and west banks.

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Urban Urban Scale Tiberias Function Lake

Full- Haifa function Major Urban Center

Jenin Mult- Europe function Secondary Urban Center

Tulkarm Specific- function Sub-urban Center Qalqilya Tubas New town Limited Nablus function

Ramallah Amman

Jericho Countries Middle-East Europe Tel Aviv East Jerusalem Regional Linkage Bethlehem

Inter-regional Axis Dead Sea Strong linkage Hebron Moderate linkage Europe Gaza

Limited linkage

Minimum linkage EGYPT Red Sea

Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.3.3 Spatial Structure of the West Bank and Gaza (Future View)

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6.4 Spatial Plan for Jericho and Jordan Rift Valley

A spatial plan for the Jordan Rift Valley area is developed based on the analysis of the spatial structure for the West Bank and Gaza Strip, as well as the results of the assessment of land and water availability.

Economic Corridors The three corridors identified in the Jordan Rift Valley area will physically form a basic frame of the region for economic activities. These corridors are (i) the North-South Corridor 2 (Tiberias – Jericho – Eilat along Jordan Rift Valley), (ii) East-West Corridor (Amman – Jericho – Gaza – Egypt), and (iii) Amman – Haifa corridor.

Water Axes Water axis is another fundamental frame for regional development in the Jordan Rift Valley. Four water axes are identified for the regional development master plan, i.e., (i) Wadi al Far’a, (ii) Wadi al Qilt, (iii) Wadi al ’Auja, and (iv) Wadi Malih. The Wadi al Far’a basin is the largest watershed in the Jordan Rift Valley having surface water throughout the year. The valley is recognized as having high potential for agricultural development with adequate water harvesting potential. The Wadi al Qilt basin is located in the southern part of the Jordan Rift Valley passing through Jericho city. There exist numerous cultural/historical heritage sites along the valley in addition to the water development potential. The Wadi al Qilt water axis could be identified as a water source for the Greater Jericho development and tourism development. The Wadi al ’Auja basin is located on the northern side of the Greater Jericho. The stable spring source exists in the upstream and the sizable un-used flat land exists in the downstream. The Wadi Malih basin is located in the northern part of the Jordan Rift Valley. The water resources are not developed yet due to strict Israeli control in the area. The Wadi Malih could be developed as a potential location of immigration with a new town and agro-based activities in the future.

Urban Centers Three focal sub-regions are identified for urban development. They are (i) the Greater Jericho, (ii) Tubas Highland, and (iii) Jiftlik Zone. The Greater Jericho area is expected to develop as the major center of the region with multiple urban functions such as tourism development, agro-processing, and international trade and logistics. Attention should be paid to preserve high-valued cultural, historical and environmental heritages. The population will be about 45,000 in 2015, without immigration and the allowable immigration capacity could consider from the viewpoint of the water availability in the Greater Jericho. The total area is 347 km2 including Area C of 278 km2. Assumed population density is 130 persons/km2 in 2015 without immigration.

Tubas Highland, which includes Tubas, Tammun, ’Aqaba and Tayasir, is located on the northern hilly edge of the Jordan Rift Valley. The population will be about 44,000 in 2015 without immigration. All the area is in Area A under full administration of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA). Rainfall is adequate for rainfed cultivation. Located between Jenin and Nablus, the economic and social activities in Tubas Highland are highly dependent on these cities. The area would have potential for agro-industry

6-10 Chapter 6 JERICHO Regional Development Study Integrated Regional Development Plan based on production in the sizable agricultural area extending to the west, processing in Tubas and then transporting the produce to the east along the Haifa-Amman Corridor to Jordan and the Gulf countries.

The Jiftlik zone is located at the crossing point of the Jordan Rift Valley and Wadi Far’a Valley, and serves as a gateway to Jordan through Damiya Bridge. The area is in the center of the Jordan Rift Valley, and is the most suitable location to collect the products from the whole Jordan Rift Valley and to export them to Jordan and the Gulf countries. The population in 2015 is estimated to be about 5,500 without immigration. All the area is currently classified into Area C under the control of Israel.

Agriculture, Processing and Agro-Industry Zones

Agriculture is one of the main economic activities in the Jordan Rift Valley area. However, there is a limitation in potential for expansion due mainly to the limitation of land and water resources. Given the situation, promotion of water saving agriculture is proposed, aiming at higher productivity. Processing and agro-industry will be developed with some effective marketing strategies. The Lower Jordan Rift Valley along the North-South corridor is identified as a fresh vegetable and tree cropping zone and, therefore, the packaging industry for export of the products could be promoted. Along the Wadi Far’a valley and Tubas Highland, some agro- industries based on olive and livestock products would be promising for economic development.

Tourism Centers Though numerous potential tourism resources exist in the region, the most valuable tourism resources are concentrated in and around Jericho city. Jericho city could be developed as an international tourism center. Strengthening the linkage with the surrounding tourism spots such as Amman, Jerusalem, Bethlehem and Egypt would be a key strategy for tourism development.

Dead Sea resort is identified as the new main tourism attraction of Jericho city, which would greatly contribute to the enhancement in the tourism sector.

Considering that the number of visitors to Jericho was about 300,000 before the Second Intifada, the existing tourism facilities could manage to receive tourists up to around 300,000, or three times larger than tourists as of the year 2005. Given the situation, tourism promotion and improvement of the existing major tourism products would be the first actions to recover the number of tourists. Improvement of security situation in the West Bank is essential to promote investments in the tourism infrastructures and facilities.

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Tiberias , Lebanon and Syria

Haifa , Mediteranian Sea Bardala/ and Europe Kardala (Future)

Tubas Jordan and Hi hl d Gulf Countries

Jiftlik

Greater Jericho

Jordan and Gulf Countries

Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Gaza

Eilat / Red Sea

Development Corridor Agro-Processing (Major road network) Development Center Water Axis Agro-Industry (Agriculture Zone)

Environmental Tourism Development Jordan River Friendly Urban (Peace Corridor) Development Zone Trading / Marketing Center

Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.4.1 Spatial Plan for the Jordan Rift Valley Area

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