Chapter 5 JERICHO Regional Development Study Development Frameworks CHAPTER 5. DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORKS 5.1 Socioeconomic Framework Socioeconomic frameworks for the Jericho regional development plan are first discussed in terms of population, employment, and then gross domestic product (GDP) in the region. 5.1.1 Population and Employment The population of the West Bank and Gaza totals 3.76 million in 2005, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) estimation.1 Of this total, the West Bank has 2.37 million residents (see the table below). Population growth of the West Bank and Gaza between 1997 and 2005 was 3.3%, while that of the West Bank was slightly lower. In the Jordan Rift Valley area, including refugee camps, there are 88,912 residents; 42,268 in the Jericho governorate and 46,644 in the Tubas district2. Population growth in the Jordan Rift Valley area is 3.7%, which is higher than that of the West Bank and Gaza. Table 5.1.1 Population Trends (1997-2005) (Unit: number) Locality 1997 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 CAGR West Bank and Gaza 2,895,683 3,275,389 3,394,046 3,514,868 3,637,529 3,762,005 3.3% West Bank 1,873,476 2,087,259 2,157,674 2,228,759 2,300,293 2,372,216 3.0% Jericho governorate 31,412 37,066 38,968 40,894 40,909 42,268 3.8% Tubas District 35,176 41,067 43,110 45,187 45,168 46,644 3.6% Study Area 66,588 78,133 82,078 86,081 86,077 88,912 3.7% Study Area (Excl. Camps) 56,344 66,107 69,443 72,828 72,823 75,221 3.7% Source: PCBS According to the socioeconomic survey conducted by the JICA Study Team, the average number of family members in the Jordan Rift Valley area is 7.8. Among the five target areas of the survey, households in the Jordan Rift Valley villages of Nablus have the largest number of family members, 9.3, while households in Jericho are the smallest with an average household size of 6.4 family members (see the following table). 1 Although there have been different estimations by other authorities, this Study follows the PCBS estimation. 2 The Jordan Rift Valley area contains 13,691 registered refugees. 5-1 Chapter 5 JERICHO Regional Development Study Development Frameworks Table 5.1.2 Average Family Size by Area (Unit: number) Area Family Size Jericho 6.4 Al ‘Auja 8.5 Tubas 7.4 Area surrounding Tubas 7.6 Jordan valley villages of Nablus 9.3 Overall 7.8 Source: Socioeconomic Survey, JICA Study Team Working age population (all persons aged 15 years old and over) in the total of the West Bank and Gaza and the West Bank alone constitute 53.7% and 55.6%, respectively. The Jordan Rift Valley area also has the same level as the West Bank with the ratio of 55.6%. Based on the population projection for the West Bank by the PCBS, the natural increases in population in the Jordan Rift Valley area have been estimated at the local level up to 2015.3 The total population of the region (including refugee camps) is estimated to be about 103,000 in 2010 and 116,000 in 2015. The Jordan Rift Valley population is predicted to grow at an average annual rate of 2.7% in 2005-2015. The following table summarizes the population of each locality in the region. Table 5.1.3 Population Framework in the Jordan Rift Valley area (Unit: number) Locality 2005 2010 2015 CAGR WEST BANK AND GAZA 3,762,005 4,409,684 5,091,314 3.1% WEST BANK 2,372,216 2,736,899 3,110,489 2.7% Marj Na'ja 743 858 972 - Az Zubeidat 1,299 1,498 1,698 - Marj al Ghazal 373 431 488 - Al Jiftlik 4,264 4,921 5,575 - Fasayil 872 1,006 1,140 - Al 'Auja 3,886 4,484 5,080 - An Nuwei'ma 1,128 1,303 1,476 - 'Ein ad Duyuk al Foqa 789 910 1,031 - 'Ein as Sultan Camp 1,972 2,277 2,579 - 'Ein ad Duyuk at Tahta 937 1,081 1,225 - Jericho (Ariha) 19,783 22,830 25,863 - Aqbat Jaber Camp 6,147 7,093 8,035 - Other Localities 75 85 96 - JERICHO GOVERNORATE 42,268 48,777 55,258 2.7% 3 As argued in Section 5.4, PNA, notably MoP, considers that the Jordan Rift Valley area could be a possible location for further migration intake at the time of future establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Indeed, the JICA Study Team estimates that allowable capacity of the population in the region is about 200,000 from the perspective of water availability. However, because of its highly political nature, the JICA Study Team does not consider this plan in preparing the population forecast. Consequently, the economic frameworks presented in the Table 5.1.6 have been formulated without consideration of the possible immigration. 5-2 Chapter 5 JERICHO Regional Development Study Development Frameworks (Continued) Locality 2005 2010 2015 CAGR Bardala 1,528 1,764 1,998 - 'Ein el Beida 1,048 1,209 1,370 - Kardala 160 185 209 - 'Aqqaba 5,885 6,791 7,693 - Tayasir 2,323 2,681 3,037 - Al Farisiya 207 238 270 - Ath Thaghra 250 289 327 - Al Malih 200 230 261 - Tubas 15,591 17,992 20,382 - Ras al Far'a 679 784 888 - El Far'a Camp 5,572 6,431 7,285 - Wadi al Far'a 2,269 2,618 2,966 - Tammun 10,119 11,677 13,229 - Al Hadidiya 177 205 232 - Other Localities 636 734 831 - TUBAS DISTRICT 46,644 53,826 60,978 2.7% STUDY AREA 88,912 102,603 116,237 2.7% STUDY AREA (Excl. Camps) 75,221 86,803 98,337 2.7% Note: 2005-2006: revised mid-year population projection, Small Area Statistics 2005 (website) 2007: revised mid-year population projection (website) 2008-2015: JICA study team estimation according to the PCBS projected growth rate of the West Bank Source: PCBS; JICA Study Team Estimation The rate of working age population will increase from 55.6% in 2005 to 58.6% in 2010 and 61.1% in 2015. The West Bank and Gaza experienced a significant increase in the unemployment rate from 1999 to 35% West Bank and Gaza 2002 (see the figure). Although there has been 30% modest improvement since 2002, it remains as high 25% as 26.8% in the West Bank and Gaza (2004) and 20% 23.8% in the West Bank (2003). The Jordan Rift 15% 10% West Bank Valley area appears to have more or less the same 5% unemployment rate. 0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 In terms of distribution of employed persons by (Est.) economic activity, the tertiary industries, especially Source: PCBS Figure 5.1.1 Unemployment Rate (1999-2004) services, constitute the largest portion, both in the total of the West Bank and Gaza and the West Bank (see the following table). Although there is not enough statistical data available at the governorate level, Jericho appears to have a similar distribution pattern of employed persons while Tubas appears to have a much higher proportion of agricultural population. 5-3 Chapter 5 JERICHO Regional Development Study Development Frameworks Table 5.1.4 Distribution of Employed Persons by Economic Activity (2004) West Bank Bethlehem Jenin & Economic Activity West Bank & Gaza & Jericho Tubas Primary Industry Agriculture, Hunting & Fisheries 15.9% 16.9% 15.9% 35.4% Secondary Industry Mining, Quarrying, & Manufacturing 12.7% 14.0% 17.3% 8.6% Construction 11.7% 13.0% 16.4% 10.3% Tertiary Industry Commerce, Hotels & Restaurants 19.4% 20.9% 14.0% 18.0% Transportation, Storage & Communication 5.4% 5.7% 6.3% 3.5% Services & Branches 34.9% 29.5% 30.1% 24.2% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: PCBS 5.1.2 Economic Trends The Palestinian economy has endured numerous economic distortions in the last four decades, becoming a captive market for Israeli goods and highly dependent on the export of unskilled labor to Israel. Since its outbreak in 2000, the Second Intifada—especially because of the heavy restrictions on movement—has been causing an economic catastrophe for the Palestinian economy. GDP has fallen by 15.4% in the West Bank and Gaza and 8.5% in the West Bank (see the table below). Likewise, GDP per capita in the West Bank and Gaza has declined by 24.7% and in the West Bank by 23.9%. The Palestinian economy has stagnated to the heavy movement restrictions imposed. Many Palestinians stopped trying to return to jobs in Israel or to reach markets elsewhere in the West Bank. Smaller, less profitable businesses have been established in response to the closures, to serve communities which were no longer able to travel to urban centers. Table 5.1.5 Macroeconomic Indicators (1999-2004) Indicators 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 West Bank and Gaza GDP (Mill. US$; 1997 Prices) 4,883.4 4,619.2 4,325.7 4,169.3 4,165.3 4,131.2 Real Growth Rate (%) 8.9% -5.4% -6.4% -3.6% -0.1% -0.8% GDP per Capita (US$; 1997 Prices) 1,617.2 1,466.4 1,311.2 1,203.4 1,272.3 1,217.8 Real Growth Rate (%) 4.5% -9.3% -10.6% -8.2% 5.7% -4.3% West Bank GDP (Mill.