ESG and Sustainability Quarterly Report – June 2021
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ESG and Sustainability Quarterly Report – June 2021 For Adviser use only In this third edition of the Antares ESG and Sustainability Report we provide an update on our ESG and sustainability insights as well as a review of our activity and company engagement. As always, your feedback is encouraged and welcomed. Momentum behind standardisation of ESG reporting is building The June quarter has seen significant momentum for the net zero movement and climate change initiatives more broadly. In particular, we are encouraged by growing support for the standardisation of ESG reporting. Australia has lagged other jurisdictions such as the EU in this regard. Most disclosure of non-financial information in the Australian context has been largely voluntary, albeit we note that adoption of Taskforce for Climate Change Disclosure (TCFD) recommendations by ASX200 companies has been growing. Figure 1: Number of ASX200 companies adopting TCFD disclosures 120 100 80 23 14 60 12 40 26 10 60 20 11 26 0 11 2017 2018 2019 Adopted Committed Reviewing Source: Investor Group on Climate Change (IGCC), June 2021. Of note, in June, the CDP, UNPRI and IGCC (of which Antares’ parent MLC AM is a member) released a roadmap and proposal for Australia to adopt a mandatory financial disclosure for climate change risks over the next four years. We see this as a critical step in addressing a lack of quality and consistency of company disclosures in relation to their climate risks. It also has the potential to give companies greater clarity as they navigate the complex task of reporting. Antares views this proposal as positive as it enables better comparisons to be made between companies at a time where climate risks are being increasingly scrutinised by the investment community. Notwithstanding the improving availability and quality of data, we continue to believe that depth of knowledge and insight is required to understand material ESG issues relating to each company. This is where we believe Antares has a competitive advantage given our bottom up approach to stock analysis and the significant experience and relationships our team has with companies in the investment universe. Environment – How Antares is assessing risk and opportunity in decarbonisation As we wrote about in March, there is growing commitment by corporate Australia to net zero emission targets following the reaffirmation of Australia’s 2030 emission reduction targets last year. This momentum has continued in the June quarter with a further eight companies announcing net zero targets. We were particularly encouraged to see Ampol finally announce its detailed decarbonisation strategy. This follows a long period of engagement between Antares and Ampol’s management and board. Figure 2: Net Zero announcements by ASX 200 companies in June 2021 quarter Net Zero Commitment Company Emissions Reduction Target Alignment Date AMP AMP has committed to managing business and investments in alignment with net zero emissions by 2050. 2050 1-Apr-21 Treasury Wine Estates Net zero emissions goal for 2030. 2030 13-May-21 South32 Keep FY21 Scope 1 emissions below FY15 baseline. 2035 net-zero target on scope one and two carbon emissions. 2035 17-May-21 Newcrest Mining Newcrest sets goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. 30% reduction in intensity by 2030. 2050 18-May-21 Ampol Strategy to reach net zero emissions by 2040. 2040 20-May-21 AdbBri Ltd Net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Absolute GHG reduction target of 7% by 2030 2050 21-May-21 Growthpoint Property Net zero carbon emissions across operationally controlled office assets and corporate activities by 2025. 2025 1-Jun-21 Oil Search Scope 1 & 2 Intensity reduction target of 30% by 2030 2050 8-Jun-21 Source: ASX announcements, April to June 2021. With 52 companies in the S&P/ASX 200 now having announced net zero targets, we estimate that if these companies achieve their stated targets, over 50% of the current market cap of the ASX200 will be carbon neutral by 2050. In light of this our team is undertaking work on modelling the reduction of carbon footprints in our portfolios, which will naturally include an assessment of how realistic stated targets and abatement curves are. Figure 3: Number of ASX200 net zero commitments Figure 4: % ASX200 market cap at net zero 60 100% 52 90% 50 80% 70% 60% 40 35 50% 40% 30 30% 20% 20 13 10% 0% 10 6 3 2020 2010 2018 2019 2022 2025 2028 2030 2035 2040 2050 0 2010 2018 2019 2020 2021 MCap Carbon Neutral Not Source: Jeffries, June 2021 The cost of decarbonisation Many of the companies we have been meeting with are pursuing decarbonisation strategies. They appear to be doing so for a variety of reasons including risk management, opportunity exploitation, corporate responsibility and ensuring ongoing access to capital amongst others. Whilst decarbonisation strategies may yield benefits or even competitive advantages for some companies they also can come at a cost. In aggregate, we estimate the cost of decarbonisation for the S&P/ASX 200 to be about 9% of its current market capitalisation. Figure 5 details our estimate which assumes the purchase of 2 carbon credits to offset the current level of emissions by the S&P/ASX 200 in aggregate. In this simplistic approach the cost is highly dependent on the shadow price of carbon assumed (given Australia doesn’t currently have a carbon price). In reality, we expect companies to pursue a combination of carbon reduction and offset strategies, both of which will likely require investment (via capital, operating expense or foregone revenue). Figure 5: Estimate of the cost of net zero for the S&P/ASX 200 Cost of Net Zero ASX 200 % Fall in ASX200 based on various carbon price and multiple Emissions assumptions Average Scope 1 & 2 emissions of ASX200 companies 1,146 kt # Stocks in ASX200 200 Cost of Carbon ($A/t) Total Scope 1 & 2 emissions for ASX 200 229,164 kt -9.3% $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 6x -3.4% -4.0% -4.7% -5.4% -6.1% -6.7% Carbon Price 7x -3.9% -4.7% -5.5% -6.3% -7.1% -7.9% Spot European CO2 price (EUR/t) € 50.79 Spot AUD / EUR 0.63 8x -4.5% -5.4% -6.3% -7.2% -8.1% -9.0% Shadow CO2 price (AUD/t) $80.12 9x -5.1% -6.1% -7.1% -8.1% -9.1% -10.1% Total Cost ; Net Zero (A$bn) A$18.36 bn 10x -5.6% -6.7% -7.9% -9.0% -10.1% -11.2% Multiple of earnings lost (ASX200 EV/EBITDA) 10.3x 11x -6.2% -7.4% -8.7% -9.9% -11.1% -12.4% Enterprise Value Cost (A$bn) A$189.62 bn 12x -6.7% -8.1% -9.4% -10.8% -12.1% -13.5% Current Market Cap ASX 200 (A$bn) A$2037.59 bn 13x -7.3% -8.8% -10.2% -11.7% -13.2% -14.6% % Decline -9.3% MultipleEBITDA) (x Earnings 14x -7.9% -9.4% -11.0% -12.6% -14.2% -15.7% Base case analysis assumes the spot European carbon price in A$ Source: Antares Equities, June 2021 Opportunities in decarbonisation Traditionally ESG analysis has focused on risk management. This is also the primary focus of emerging ESG reporting standards. However, at Antares we also recognise that ESG and sustainability can often also produce opportunities for value creation, particularly against a backdrop of secular change. Over the past 12 months as our team have explored the opportunities that exist with decarbonisation we have added a number of stocks to the portfolio that are leveraged to the decarbonisation thematic. It became increasingly clear that government policy globally was instituting a “decarbonised economy” as a platform for post COVID-19 stimulus which would drive an acceleration in decarbonisation trends. This has presented some interesting investment opportunities in the services and materials space which are summarised in Figure 6. Figure 6: Examples of additions to Antares portfolios in FY21 leveraged to decarbonisation Company Rationale Longer term exposure to lithium market (electric vehicles) in which we expect supply to lag Mineral Resources demand. Becoming a major lithium player with world class assets, production ramp up and strong IGO Limited balance sheet. Lynas Rare Earths Strategically positioned assets, exposure to growing rare earth demand from electric vehicles. Copper is essential given decarbonsation = electrification. OZL has growing production in a Oz Minerals copper market underprepared for demand with new mines taking significant time to develop. Uranium market has turned given potential use of nuclear energy to deccarbonise electricity. Paladin Company balance sheet repaired and short period to production ramp up. Worley Significant revenue opportunity in decarbonisation as clients transition. Opportunities in hydrogen, renewables, circular economy. Exit of carbon and capital intensive Downer businesses to drive rerating. Source: Antares Equities, June 2021. 3 Notwithstanding the decarbonisation theme underpinning these positions, at Antares we are more than thematic investors. Our stock selection and portfolio construction processes continue to be driven by insight (which may relate to decarbonisation trends), conviction, valuation and bottom up fundamental analysis of the company’s financials and sustainability. With this in mind, we have since exited some of these positions whilst adding to others. Social We continue to monitor a range of social issues in the investment landscape across modern slavery in supply chains, industrial safety, changing work places during COVID-19, stakeholder and community management and culture. Engagement in Focus: Ongoing Antares engagement contributes to improvements at BlueScope In our December ESG & Sustainability report, we detailed our ongoing engagement activity with BlueScope (BSL) regarding their approach to safety following workplace fatalities in FY19 and FY20.