Finance Minister S Key Advisers Want 100M Canadians by 2100

1. Finance Minister’s key advisers want 100M Canadians by 2100

Opening Canada’s doors to more newcomers is a crucial ingredient for expanding growth in the future, argue the council members assembled by Finance Minister Bill Morneau. By Andy BlatchfordThe Canadian Press Sun., Oct. 23, 2016

A 14-member council was assembled by Finance Minister Bill Morneau to provide "bold" advice on how to best guide Canada's struggling economy. A call for a gradual increase in permament immigration was one of the first recommendations. (Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

OTTAWA—Imagine Canada with a population of 100 million — roughly triple its current size.

For two of the most prominent voices inside the Trudeau government’s influential council of economic advisers, it’s much more than a passing fancy.

It’s a target.

The 14-member council was assembled by Finance Minister Bill Morneau to provide “bold” advice on how best to guide Canada’s struggling economy out of its slow-growth rut.

One of their first recommendations, released last week, called for a gradual increase in permanent immigration to 450,000 people a year by 2021 — with a focus on top business talent and international students. That would be a 50-per-cent hike from the current level of about 300,000.

The council members — along with many others, including Economic Development Minister Navdeep Bains — argue that opening Canada’s doors to more newcomers is a crucial ingredient for expanding growth in the future.

1 They say it’s particularly important as more and more of the country’s baby boomers enter their golden years, which eats away at the workforce.

The conviction to bring in more immigrants is especially significant for at least two of the people around the advisory team’s table.

Growth council chair Dominic Barton, the powerful global managing director of consulting firm McKinsey & Co., and Mark Wiseman, a senior managing director for investment management giant BlackRock Inc., are among the founders of a group dedicated to seeing the country responsibly expand its population as a way to help drive its economic potential.

The Century Initiative, a five-year-old effort by well-known Canadians, is focused on seeing the country of 36 million grow to 100 million by 2100.

Without significant policy changes on immigration, the current demographic trajectory has Canada’s population on track to reach 53 million people by the end of the century, the group says on its website. That would place it outside the top 45 nations in population size, it says.

Barton believes the demographic challenge will make Canada increasingly irrelevant over time, particularly given its already-small population size.

“Relevance is not just determined by your population, but it’s a factor given all the strengths we have,” Barton, a sought-after expert who has consulted government and business leaders around the world, said in an interview.

“Why wouldn’t we make that a strength if our diversity and multiculturalism is a strength, but it’s winnowing away as we’re getting older? Why wouldn’t we do the opposite and goose it?”

He believes Canada’s international influence would grow considerably with a bigger population. On top of that, Barton said the world would benefit from having a larger version of Canada’s stable, diversified democracy and economy.

“It’s a big number — to me, it’s more of an aspirational number,” he said when asked about the group’s goal.

“It would obviously change the country considerably. It’s a different path ... But I don’t think it’s crazy.”

The discussions that eventually blossomed into Century Initiative began in 2011 during a weekend gathering of friends at Barton’s cottage in Ontario’s Muskoka region, north of Toronto.

Sitting near the edge of Lake of Bays, surrounded by the Canadian Shield, they started brainstorming about the best ways to shelter the country’s economy from the gathering, predictable demographic storm.

Barton said the first informal get-together was followed by a few other meetings, including two group treks into the High Arctic.

“We were total nerds, basically,” he said of their talks about the costs and benefits of increasing immigration.

The idea evolved and the group hired staffers and started funding research into the topic.

2 Barton sees a dovetail between some of the ideas behind the Century Initiative and the growth council, but he says they are separate.

In fact, behind the closed doors of the growth council meetings, Barton said the Century Initiative’s 100-million goal didn’t come up.

He did acknowledge that he and Wiseman were among the biggest proponents behind the immigration-boosting idea that the group presented to Morneau.

“Probably because Mark and I have been in (Century Initiative) we’re obviously more naturally bullish towards it,” said Barton, who also noted that there was a lot of debate on the scope of the immigration proposal.

Some people in the room wanted a more-aggressive approach, while others were “nervous” about moving too quickly, he added.

The Liberal government has committed to increasing immigration, but the cabinet minister in charge of the dossier has indicated that raising it to 450,000 in five years is likely too ambitious.

“We have an aging population, we have labour shortages, but there are also constraints,” John McCallum, who will announce Ottawa’s 2017 target on Nov. 1, said last week.

“It costs a lot of money. If we have more immigrants, we want to integrate them well.”

His cabinet colleague, Bains, recently told a policy conference that the government is encountering public “pushback” on its immigration plans from Canadians who fear for their jobs.

Bains urged the mostly business and academic crowd to help sell the idea of increasing immigration as a driver of prosperity and opportunity.

Barton said while there’s still nearly a full century to hit the 100-million mark, he stressed the country needs get started soon.

“You read about (former prime minister Wilfrid) Laurier — it was supposed to be Canada’s century,” Barton said of the 1900s.

“Canada did pretty well, but I don’t think we can say it was Canada’s century.”

3 Canadian population sees biggest spike since 1988 – thanks to immigrants: StatsCan

By Rebecca Joseph National Online Journalist, Breaking News Global News Nov 2016

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau greets a family of refugees from Syria as they arrive at Pearson International airport, in Toronto, on Friday, Dec. 11, 2015.

Statistics Canada says Canada’s population rose by 139,645 in the second quarter of 2016—marking the biggest quarterly increase since 1988.

According to preliminary results, Canada’s population on July 1 was 36,286,425. That’s an increase of 1.2 per cent since July last year and the biggest yearly increase since 1988/89.

The sudden rise is largely due to immigration, Statistics Canada officials say; just over 86,000 people immigrated during the second quarter of 2016, making the total number of immigrants for the past year around 320,000. They also said the “record number” was influenced by the arrival of Syrian refugees since November last year. The last official time Canada had seen a number close to this high was in 2009/10 when Canada let in just over 270,000 people.

Officials said there were more immigrants received in the early 1910s during the settlement of Western Canada, but since demographic accounts started in 1971, official numbers weren’t immediately available.

Among the results released Wednesday Statistics Canada also said the median age of Canadians is 40.9 years old, the number of births in the country for the past year was around 393,000 and the number of deaths for the same period was around 269,000. The numbers are based on 2011 Census counts.

4 Statistics Canada 2016 Census celebrates 'best census since the Year 1666'

Response rate for newly restored long-form census was 97.8%, the best ever recorded, agency reports CBC News Posted: Aug 29, 2016 2:38 PM ET Last Updated: Aug 29, 2016 6:21 PM ET

The census collects demographic information on every person living in Canada. The data is then used by governments, businesses, associations, community organizations and others to make important decisions at the municipal, provincial and the federal levels. (CBC)

On the long list of what Canadians love, it seems you can add filling out census forms to pastimes such as watching hockey and listening to The Tragically Hip.

Statistics Canada is celebrating its "best census ever" after 98.4 per cent of the census population filled out their long-and short-form questionnaires this year.

Most Canadians got a 10-question short version of the census, but one in four randomly selected households received the 36-page long-form questionnaire known as the National Household Survey.

This was the first year for the reinstated mandatory long-form census since the Conservative government cancelled it for the 2011 census, replacing it with a voluntary national household survey.

The 2016 collection response rate for the longer version of the census was 97.8 per cent, the best ever recorded, said the government agency.

The census collects demographic information on every person living in Canada. The data is then used by governments, businesses, associations, community organizations and others to make important decisions at the municipal, provincial and the federal levels. Results from the census are also used to help guide payment allocation at all levels of government.

Chief statistician Wayne Smith said this year's collection was the "best census since 1666."

Statistics Canada said the first census in Canada was initiated by Jean Talon, the first intendant of New France, that year. The census counted the colony's 3,215 inhabitants and noted their age, sex, marital status and occupation.

"The 2016 census will provide high-quality information for virtually all communities across Canada," Smith said in a release Monday.

Economic Development Minister Navdeep Bains echoed the praise, saying "Canadians can be proud of their participation." 5 The census "provide the high-quality information needed to plan critical services such as child care, housing and public transportation for all Canadians, he said in a separate release.

Marilyn Gladu, the Conservative science critic, lauded the census success despite her party's past move to try to kill the mandatory long-form iteration.

"It's good that we have had a great response ... I think there's a lot of people who rely on this information," the Sarnia–Lambton MP said, adding she wasn't part of the previous government and her job is now to provide "fresh eyes" to the science portfolio while in opposition. Most efficient census, too

Not only did Canadians fill out the census with gusto, they were pretty competent doing it. Statistics Canada said almost nine in 10 Canadian households completed the questionnaire without help, making it the most efficient censuses in the world.

The enthusiasm isn't all that surprising. When Statistics Canada began mailing out access codes in early May, the hashtag #Census2016 trended nationwide, and the website briefly broke down.

StatsCan at the time attributed the outage to overwhelming "enthusiasm." Internal documents obtained later by CBC News in fact found that poor webpage design combined with heavy traffic to crash the department's website, and the outage lasted longer than first reported.

Nevertheless, the agency said responders weren't deterred from filling out the survey online. Almost 68 per cent of people filled out the census online, surpassing Statistics Canada's goal of a 65 per cent and setting another world record. Jail time

Of course, filling out the census isn't an altruistic ode to data-driven decision making. Both forms of the census are mandatory. Failing to provide census information could result in a fine of up to $500, imprisonment of up to three months, or both.

In 2014, a 79-year-old Toronto woman was found guilty of violating the Statistics Act over her refusal to fill out the mandatory census. Janet Churnin was handed a conditional discharge.

Audrey Tobias, an 89-year-old woman who also refused to fill out the 2011 census, was brought to court but was found not guilty by a Toronto judge who soundly criticized the government for trying to prosecute someone who was a "model citizen."

The first results from the 2016 census, which will focus on population and dwelling counts, will be published on Feb. 8, 2017.

6 Terence Corcoran: 100 million Canadians? We could only hope

Huffington Post Terence Corcoran | October 20, 2016 | Last Updated: Oct 27 2:56 PM ET

The idea of expanded immigration would have been politically toxic even a year ago, Terence Corcoran writes.

100,000,000 Canadians by 2100! A tripling of Canada’s population over the next eight decades is the objective of a new organization, the Century Initiative. Canada needs to “get bigger, a lot bigger,” says one of the organization’s leaders. It’s a long shot, that 100 million.

But a report Thursday from the Trudeau government’s Advisory Council on Economic Growth boldly proposes that Canada boost annual immigration to 450,000. While the council stopped short of mentioning a target, immigration at that rate would easily propel Canada to 100 million before the end of the 21st century.

It seems preposterous at a time when much of the rest of the world has become increasingly wary of immigration — from Trumpian America to Brexit Britain and xenophobic Europe — that Canada might break from the pack.

But we could. And we should. “Jonathan Hayward/CPImmigration Minister John McCallum”

The immigration targets were only one part of the advisory council’s three major policy recommendations. Far more important — or so it seemed — were the big idea of a $200-billion federal infrastructure development bank and a new push to attract foreign investment. The dramatic political innovation in the report, however, was the call for a rethinking of Canada as a larger, fatter and more prosperous nation.

In many respects, the push for infrastructure projects and foreign investment makes little sense on its own. The real driver of bridge-building and foreign investment must come from a growing population, something that can only happen by opening the country to more immigrants.

Whether 450,000 immigrants a year by 2021, up from 300,000 this year, is the right target is another matter. Kate Subak, one of the principals behind Century Initiative, says the 100 million objective could be met by increasing immigration by only five per cent per year. 7 Whatever the number, Canadian politics might be at a turning point. The idea of expanded immigration would have been politically toxic even a year ago in the smog of the federal election. But in the past few months, even weeks, recognition of the essential benefits of immigration appears to be spreading.

Immigration Minister John McCallum recently hoped to “substantially increase” immigration, although he said this week that the advisory council’s 450,000 a year by 2021 might be too high. Conservative leadership candidate Chris Alexander last week endorsed a 400,000 annual target.

It should be noted that Dominic Barton, head of the Trudeau advisory council, is also a member of the Century Initiative, which was created last January by a group of academics, business types and others, including Naomi Alboim, a veteran immigration activist at Queen’s University.

Last week the Conference Board of Canada, in a report commissioned by the Century Initiative, concluded that Canada could benefit tremendously if immigration levels were increased. Under current policies, Canada’s population might rise from 36 million today to 53 million by 2100, a painfully slow rate that fails to open the way to a growing economy.

Demographically, Canada needs more people — labourers, skilled workers, specialized talent, young people, business people, entrepreneurs, technicians — to carry it through the forces bearing down on the economy. Under current immigration conditions, an ageing workforce and other trends will ultimately drive growth lower. According to the Conference Board projections, under the status quo annual growth in the last half of the century will drag at 1.5 per cent, while governments are burdened with rising expenses and weakening tax revenues.

At 100 million people, Canada can expect growth to rise to 2.3 per cent in 2050 and 2.6 per cent by 2100, the Conference Board projects. Economic outlooks that run out 80 years are not quite bankable, but there are more arguments in favour of increased immigration than growing GDP data and tax revenues.

A long-time proponent of the 100 million target for Canada is Toronto academic Irvin Studin. Through his Institute for 21st Century Questions, Studin has been laying the foundation for a national project for years. He sees the target as a chance for a national rebirth, an overarching project in which “we begin to think for ourselves” rather than as appendages of America or Britain or other nations.

The objective, he said in an interview, “appears to be gaining momentum.” At 100 million, Canada would become the second-biggest country in the West. Its cities would be bigger and more numerous, giving the country a critical mass that would make it able to stand on its own, economically as well as politically.

Many will raise objections. Environmentalists argue that Canada does not need more people who would contribute to declining conditions. Studin’s answer is that a bigger and more prosperous nation can afford more and better technologies.

The claim that immigrants take jobs also hangs over Canadian policy-makers. But that, too, can be overcome. While regions of Canada suffer from higher unemployment and lack of job growth, new immigration and a rising population should not be seen as the source of more problems. As Studin said last year, “there are no jobs because there are no people.”

With 100 million Canadians, the dynamics of human interaction, economies of scale, larger numbers of entrepreneurs and creative talent, bigger cities and broader markets would turn Canada into an even greater country than it is today. One might even say that the 21st century could belong to Canada. We should try it.