Observation, Research and Services at Third Pole Region

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION EC-PORS-5/Doc. 3.5

EXECUTIVE COUNCIL Submitted by: Cunde XIAO PANEL OF EXPERTS ON POLAR OBSERVATIONS, RESEARCH AND SERVICES Date: 14 February 2014 Fifth session AGENDA ITEM: 3.5 Wellington, New Zealand, 25 – 28 February 2014

REVIEW OF EC-PORS ACTIVITY SINCE EC-PORS 4

Third Pole and other High Mountain Regions

DECISIONS/ACTIONS REQUIRED: The Panel is invited to consider the report and discuss issues related to the Third Pole region, considered as one of the key regions by EC-PORS

CONTENT OF DOCUMENT: Summary of issues on the Third Pole region EC-PORS-5/Doc. 3.5, p. 2

Observation, research and services at Third Pole region Cunde XIAO (State Key Lab of Cryospheric Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Also at Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, China Meteorology Administration)

The Third Pole has been considered as one of the key regions by EC-PORS because of its importance in regional weather/climate, water availability as well as its high human population and vulnerability of natural environment. More comprehensive and integrated cryospheric observations under GCW guidelines were suggested and have been well discussed during the First Asia CryoNet Workshop in Dec 3-5 2014 in Beijing. Multiple research projects are undertaken in this region, with an typical international pilot project names as the Third Pole Environment (TPE).

1. Observation During the workshop, several issues on regional observations have been discussed. Some agreements and conclusions by breakout sessions were drawn: - Set-up a team (Expert group) to agree and to work on best practices (BP) issues. - Develop plan & priorities (Should be coordinated by GCW working structure). - Go for common standards and BP to be tailored by a specific GCW group. - Data policy: free exchange + some conditions to be specified. - Regional Working Group (WG) was agreed upon (organization of GCW according to WMO Regions). Development of Regional GCW-IPs (practices; data policy – regional components). - GCW-IP needs to be updated (e.g. GCW implementation period (2015-2019), operation onward, definition phase 2007-2015). - Formal procedure for nominating GCW Asia experts. - A letter to countries’ Permanent Representative for WMO to reaffirm the GCW focal point and to seek support for GCW and CryoNet would be very valuable. - The term “supersite” should not be used anymore to avoid any ranking for sites. We use the term “Integrated Site” instead. - Further meeting: next meeting – host to be agreed offline.

Initial listing of Integrated and reference observation sites Based on the existing observation network operated over the region, several integrated and reference sites of GCW have been suggested by the participants. The way of merging these stations into GCW will be discussed in the future and will try to meet the requirements of GCW guidelines. Most of these sites are operated by Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and China Meteorology Administration (CMA) (Table 1), but some sites are operated by other Asian countries (Table 2). EC-PORS-5/Doc. 3.5, p. 3

Table 1: Observing stations in China. Information in this table has been extracted from the CNC-CliC/IACS book courtesy from China Meteorology Press. (note that complementary information will be updated later on by requesting the appropriate responsible).

Table 2: Observing stations in other Asian countries (note that complementary information will be updated later on by requesting the appropriate responsible). EC-PORS-5/Doc. 3.5, p. 4

Further building of CryoNet Asia It was agreed that the first step was to draft the classification system and then try to assign sites submitted by participants to test its applicability. The need for a support person to help keeping this move forward was identified by the participants.

Additional tasks were suggested:  Development of a data and exchange  Collation of appropriate best practices, guidelines, and standards,  Identification and pursuit of funding opportunities. As CryoNet sites would be operated by national entities, it would be important to start the dialogue with national ministries to seek commitments to operating such sites.

2. Research Under the Chinese National Committee (CNC) of the WCRP/CliC and CNC- IUGG/IACS, several working groups have been established and progress has been made toward satisfying the regional services as mentioned above. These working groups are : (1) Snow and ice; (2) frozen ground and ecology; (3) cold regions hydrology; (4) cold regions hazards; (5) sustainable development of cryospheric regions; (6) remote sensing and data base; and (7) modeling. Because of the complexity and importance of the regional climate and hydrology in the high Asian cryosphere, international cooperation is critical to an improved understanding of these parameters. International science programs, such as the Third Pole Environment (TPE), will be a good mechanism to help address these questions. The Third Pole Environment (TPE) program intends to pool international efforts and make use of the multi-national resources for the interdisciplinary study of water-ice-air-ecology- human correlations. A more comprehensive study of these processes and interactions will address the influence of environmental changes on humans, and will provide timely adaptation strategies. General Goal of TPE: The Third Pole Environment (TPE) program aims to attract relevant research institutions and academic talents to focus on a theme of ‘water-ice-air-ecosystem-human’ interaction in the TPE, to reveal environmental change processes and mechanisms on the Third Pole and their influences and regional responses to global changes, especially monsoon systems, and thus to serve for enhancement of human adaptation to the changing environment and realization of human-nature harmony. Scientific Goal of TPE: To reveal and quantify, from the perspectives of earth system sciences, the interactions among atmosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and anthroposphere on the Third Pole and their influences on the globe in order to assess the likely future impacts of global change. Themes of research Six key science questions have been identified: EC-PORS-5/Doc. 3.5, p. 5

 Environmental and ecological changes having occurred on different time scales in the past, and driving mechanisms;  Characteristics of water and energy cycles, their main components, and relationship to the Indian monsoon and westerlies;  Responses of ecosystem changes to global warming, especially at high elevations;  The glacial status of the Third Pole, and the response of glacial retreat and mass balance changes to the water and energy cycle and its components, in addition to their environmental impacts;  The impact of anthropogenic activities;  The more appropriate way to adapt to global change and more efficient way to sustain future environment in the Third Pole region

So far, the impact of scientific research achievements has significantly increased, such as the following publications:  Nature -Climate Change, Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings, doi:10.1038/nclimate1580  Environmental Development, Third Pole Environment (TPE), 52-64, 3/2012  Chinese Science Bulletin, Special topic: Stable Isotopes in Water Body on the Tibetan Plateau, 54(16), 2009  Chinese Science Bulletin, Special topic: Glacial Retreat and Its Impact on Lakes in Tibetan Plateau, 55(20), 2010  Nature, China: The third pole, 454, 7/2008  Nature, Measuring the Meltdown, 468, 11/11/2010  Nature, Glaciologists to target third pole, 484, 04/05/2012  Science, 'Third Pole' Glacier Research Gets A Boost From China, 334, 12/02/2011  EOS, A New Polar Program, 515, 29/12/2009  EOS, Moving Forward on Glacial Retreat, 188, 31/05/2011  EOS, Tibetan Plateau and Beyond, 136-137, 27/03/2012. Please go to www.tpe.ac.cn for further information.

3. Services The Third Pole region exerts a direct influence on social and economic development in the surrounding regions of China, India, Nepal, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Bhutan, and Mongolia. Approximately eight large rivers originate from the high Asian cryosphere. The Yangtze and Yellow Rivers flow into the Pacific; the Ganges, Indus, Yarlum Zangbu/Brahmaputra and Lantsang/Meikong Rivers flow into the Indian Ocean; while the Ob and Yenisei rivers flow into the Arctic. Interior rivers originating from high altitudes feed large oasis in the lower deserted areas of the hinterland of Asian continent. The largest basin, Tarim River Basin, has a large population (about 20 million people), along with the Hexi Corridor (5 million people). Life would not exist in these dry basins without snow/ice in the high mountains. Cryospheric changes in high Asia directly impacts sustainable development in local and adjacent regions, along with potential socio-economic impacts on downstream regions. EC-PORS-5/Doc. 3.5, p. 6

Existing services  Seasonal climate prediction: snow cover data over the Third Pole region has been used as a key element in seasonal prediction of climate by the Beijing Climate Center (BCC).  Water availability prediction: long-term prediction of glacier meltwater changes are operational. The tipping point of “increase to decrease” meltwater in small glacier catchments is predicted to appear around 2030s-2040s.  Disaster prevention: Snow storms are forecasted by most regional and national weather services.  Infrastructural protection: Monitoring networks of permafrost exist along Tibetan highways and railways, with some initial predictions of permafrost thawing and preventive measures taken.  Ecology protection and pasture maintenance: some basic research is carried out in the headwater of rivers such as Yellow, Yangdz and Meikong, including in situ measurements of ecology and hydrology.

User needs: The most prominent needs can be summarized as the following.  Seasonal climate prediction: Because of high elevation of rough topography of the Third Pole region, thermal state of the plateau determines largely of onset and northward progress of Indian monsoon and east Asia monsoon. In this respect, snow cover on the Third Pole region was listed as key variables for predict seasonal climate of surrounding regions. In situ snow cover data over the Third Pole region still needs to be integrated with satellite data. Reliable reanalysis data are very scarce. Existing reanalysis data sets are almost useless in the region. Regional climate models need to be improved in this domain so as to meet the requirements of various services as listed above.  Water availability prediction: This includes both seasonal and long-term prediction. Temperature and precipitation changes over the high mountains largely determine the meltwater availability in warm seasons. Seasonal distribution of meltwater to the downstream low lands is very important to agriculture and industry, and people’s daily life. Also, the tipping point that overall meltwater change from “increasing” to “decreasing” in the next decades are also critical for the planning of the structure of socio-economy in these region. Because of rapid development of these countries in recent three decades, oasis and industry have rapidly growing yet the size of cities, human populations and areas for agriculture depends on water availability nowadays and in the future. Seasonal prediction and long-term projection of meltwater from high mountains is urgently needed for such services. Reliable hydrological models need to be coupled with climate models to stimulate seasonal river runoff and make projections of long-term changes. Long-term meltwater projections should be merged into the adaptation strategy of socio-economic development of lower basins in the future.  Hazards prevention: Many hazards are related to the changes of high mountain hydrometeorological conditions. For examples, spring floods in some catchments lead to big losses; glacier lake outburst floods in Himalayas, Tianshan, and Pamir regions destroy infrastructures and human lives; blizzards and strong snow storms kill many EC-PORS-5/Doc. 3.5, p. 7

livestock like sheep and horses. These hazards need to be warned early and prevention based on observational data and good models for accurate forecast and prediction. For catchment scale hydrology, coupling of weather models with ice melt models (e.g., degree-day model) need to be improved to predict spring floods and provide early warning services. Both in situ and satellites monitoring of high-risk glacier lake outburst floods should be operated for these regions where such floods may have high impacts. Blizzards warning systems should be based on regional climate models.  Infrastructural protection: Highways and railways on the high plateau and mountainous regions are destroyed because of heave and settling of frozen ground. Thawing of permafrost increases this hazardous situation, both today and in the future. Monitoring and predicting the changes of the thermal and ice state of permafrost is very key to ensure the stability and maintenance of these transportation projects. There are similarly high needs for improved science and technology for other infrastructure projects, too, such as for buildings, bridges, etc.. Monitoring of borehole temperatures and ice content along the major linear projections over the Third Pole region should be intensified so that a more robust and precise prediction capability can be made.  Ecology protection and pasture maintenance: Large areas of pastures over the plateau and mountain regions are basic sources for millions of livestocks of the region. However, these pastures are predicted to undergo significant changes with climate and cryospheric changes impacting the region. In recent years, on some regions of the plateau, increasing surface water flooded large areas of pastures, which led to negative impacts to the local people and economy. Scientific understanding of the interactions between frozen ground and ecology over the plateau is quite poor. This is mostly based on the right description of the water balance in the interface between cryoshpere, atmosphere, and biosphere over the region. At present, there has only been some testing sites over the hinterland of the plateau.

Service Delivery Strategy The Regional Climate Center in Beijing would be an appropriate platform to deliver the needed services. Also, the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), located in Nepal, would be another potential partner platform to help with the coordinated efforts.