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Comparative Analysis of Climate Change

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Comparative Analysis of Climate Change Competence Centre for Climate Change Climate Change Impact Chains in Coastal Areas (ICCA) Final study report The study “Climate Change Impact Chains in Coastal Areas”, produced by the Center for International Forestry Research, CIFOR, was commissioned by the Inventory of Methods for Adaptation to Climate Change (IMACC) project, a global project by the Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammen­ arbeit (GIZ) GmbH, and funded through the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU). The project aims at user­driven application and advancement of existing tools and methods for adaptation, developing capacities for adaptation action and supporting South­to­South exchange, particularly among its seven partner countries: Grenada, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Philippines, Tunisia and South Africa. IMACC operates the platform AdaptationCommunity.net that provides intro­ duction to key topics of adaptation, examples of adaptation experiences and serves as an exchange and webinar platform. CONTENT 1. INTRODUCTION ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 4 1�1 Objectives of the study �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 5 1�2 Rationale for the study �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 5 Tropical coastal areas ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 5 The impact chain concept ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 6 1�3 ICCA impact chains ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 7 2. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT CHAINS IN COASTAL AREAS ������������������������������������������������ 8 2�1 Ocean acidification ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 9 Ocean acidification impact chain map ������������������������������������������������������������������� 10 References used in the ocean acidification impact map ���������������������������������������������� 11 2�2 Ocean and sea-surface temperature (SST) warming �������������������������������������������������� 12 Ocean and sea-surface temperature (SST) warming impact chain map ��������������������������� 13 References used in the ocean and sea-surface temperature (SST) warming impact map ������ 14 2�3 Precipitation change ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 15 Precipitation change impact chain map ����������������������������������������������������������������� 16 References used in the precipitation change impact map �������������������������������������������� 17 2�4 Sea-level rise ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 18 Sea-level rise impact chain map ������������������������������������������������������������������������� 19 References used in the sea-level rise impact map ���������������������������������������������������� 21 2�5 Tropical storms ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 22 Tropical storms impact chain map ����������������������������������������������������������������������� 23 References used in the tropical storms impact map �������������������������������������������������� 24 3. CONCLUSION ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 26 4. LIST OF ALL REFERENCES RELATED TO THE IMPACT CHAIN MAPS ���������������������������������� 28 5. COUNTRY DOCUMENT REVIEW AND EXPERT INTERVIEWS: INDONESIA & THE PHILIPPINES ������ 34 5�1 Summary of main findings ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 35 5�2 Document review: Indonesia ������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 38 5�3 Document review: the Philippines ������������������������������������������������������������������������ 43 5�4 Expert interviews: Indonesia ������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 48 5�5 Expert interviews: the Philippines ������������������������������������������������������������������������ 52 3 Introduction INTRODUCTION 4 3. Analyse national and sub-national policy and its 1�1 current and potential impact on the uptake of ecosys- tem-based adaptation practices in mangrove and coral Objectives of the study socio-ecological systems. 4. Conduct expert interviews with decision-makers, The following report describes the outcomes of the project implementers and researchers in both countries. study “Climate Change Impact Chains in Coastal Areas (ICCA)” conducted by CIFOR for the Deutsche For the Indonesia country case, project, program and Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) policy documents published in English and Bahasa as part of the “Inventory of Methods for Adaptation to Indonesia were included. For the Philippines country Climate Change (IMACC)” project. case, documents published in English were included. The search terms, methodology used and list of docu- The objective of the ICCA study is to understand, delin- ments reviewed are outlined in Annex 3. Semi-structured eate and communicate climate change impact chains, interviews were conducted by telephone or email with as well as potential ecosystem-based adaptation prac- stakeholders from both countries. The semi- structured tices, in coastal areas with a special focus on Indonesia interview guides and list of stakeholders interviewed are and the Philippines. The study was conducted in two outlined in Annex 4. components: (i) Global literature review covering coastal areas and especially mangrove and coral socio-ecological systems; (ii) Country document review and expert inter- views for Indonesia and the Philippines. 1�2 The global literature review was conducted following Rationale for the study a pre-defined methodology (Annex 1) and aimed to achieve the following objectives: 1. Understand and delineate the current and potential Tropical coastal areas impacts and related feedback loops (impact chains) from climate variability, extremes and change in mangrove Tropical coastal areas are characterised by dynamic and coral socio-ecological systems based on existing seascapes which encompass interconnected ecosystems peer-reviewed evidence. such as mangroves, seagrass beds and corals. These ecosystems provide a wealth of ecosystem services, are 2. Understand and delineate the compound impacts highly productive and harbour unique aquatic and resulting from the interaction of climate and non- terrestrial biodiversity. The ecosystem services of coastal climate stressors (e. g. deforestation) in mangrove and seascapes are vital for the income, subsistence and protec- coral socio-ecological systems based on existing peer- tion of coastal communities, as well as for the function- reviewed evidence. ing of economic sectors such as tourism and fisheries. 3. Identify potential ecosystem-based adaptation strat- Mangrove forests protect coastal zones from tropical egies for mangrove and coral socio-ecological systems storms, floods and erosion, process waste and nutrient from peer-reviewed literature. pollution, provide nursery grounds for fish and crus- taceans, are important sources of energy and nutrients The second component focusing on Indonesia and the to coral reefs, sequester and store carbon, and provide Philippines aimed to achieve the following objectives: an array of wood and non-wood products. Coral reefs protect mangroves and seagrass beds from wave energy, 1. Examine current adaptation practices in coastal and they supply nutrients and organic material to the areas based on national and sub-national project docu- entire ocean food web. Fish caught from reefs constitute ments. an important livelihood and protein source for coastal communities worldwide and support the fisheries sector 2. Identify and analyse the adaptation practices with in many countries, especially in small island states. Reefs activities focusing on, or related to, mangrove and coral are also important for tourism in many coastal areas, ecosystem services for the adaptation of people. where frequently other livelihood opportunities are scarce. 5 Introduction It is evident that coastal ecosystems are important for coral reefs, and runoff levels can significantly affect the adaptation of people and sectors to climate change. species distribution and reproductive success. The trans- However, these ecosystems are themselves sensitive to portation of pollutants from upland ecosystems as solu- a range of climate-induced pressures such as sea-surface ble products or via the surfaces of sediment particles can and land temperature shifts, sea-level rise, droughts, aggravate these effects further. floods and changes in seasonality. Climate pressures often occur in combination with human-induced pres- sures such as unsustainable harvesting and land-use conversion, rendering the broader socio-ecological The impact chain concept systems progressively more vulnerable. There is currently little understanding of the present and Impacts from anthropogenic and environmental pres- potential future impacts of climate change in coastal sures in any of these ecosystems are felt throughout the seascapes. For example, preliminary scientific evidence seascape. Mangroves, seagrass beds and coral reefs are suggests that
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