March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders – Interim Findings

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Contents

Foreword 4 Introduction 5 The Case for Change 7 Today’s immediate challenges:

Habitat in Wales 9

Shoreline Management Plans 12

Fairbourne 14

Conwy Valley Line 16

Old Colwyn Sea Wall 17 A Way Forward:

AssetCoast 18 Rail industry funding 19 Pilot research study area: Cardigan Bay and the Cambrian Coast Line 20 Summary and roadmap to final publication 23 Appendix A: Shoreline Management Plan process flowchart 24 Appendix B: Detailed SMP policies for Cardigan Bay 25 Appendix C: SMP policy maps for Wales for each epoch from Natural Resources 32 Wales Appendix D: Glossary 33

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Foreword

The impact of climate change and more regular occurrence of In addition, many parts of these routes are located in areas severe weather events, such as storms Ciara and Dennis in early which are classed as Natura 2000 sites, meaning any ‘plans or 2020, provides demonstrable evidence that much greater projects’ in these areas are subject to Habitat Regulations planning activity will need to be undertaken to consider the which may suggest habitat compensation is required, impact on our communities and on the other national particularly in areas affected by coastal squeeze. infrastructure that serves these communities such as the national road and rail networks. From a railway perspective, Coastal Groups and Local Authorities are starting to interpret storms in recent years have had a devastating impact on the the Shoreline Management Plans, their wider policy and railway network with a number of railway lines having had to regulatory context in Wales. be closed, sometimes for many months. Key examples include Given the extent of coastal rail assets in Wales, it has been at Dawlish, the Conwy Valley Line and along the Cambrian determined that further guidance is required to raise Coast Line, all having had to be substantially rebuilt at awareness of these impacts on the railway and how it is 1) locations which have seen extensive storm and/or flood funded for operations, maintenance and renewals, and 2) the damage. This has had significant negative economic impacts longer-term strategic considerations that will require to be to those parts of the country. These events also had a assessed to ensure alignment with regional adaptation of the significant impact on the communities they serve, with Shoreline Management Plans and policy. significant impacts on passengers and the movement of freight. Increased levels of rain fall, and tidal surges has also This interim document sets out the initial research undertaken, caused flooding which impacts the rail network significantly which has involved significant engagement with Welsh and we can expect these phenomena to become more of the Government, Natural Resources Wales, Gwynedd County norm as the world continues to get warmer and see levels Council (who are leading in their Shoreline Management continue to rise. adaptation planning), climate change experts, and rail industry asset management teams in Wales & Borders route. This seeks Shoreline management planning is becoming ever more to highlight the challenges the rail network and industry will important. Looking to the future, there will undoubtably be have to face to meet the wider societal challenges of climate difficult and in some cases particularly stark choices to be made change and rising sea levels. This interim assessment identifies as to how our communities and supporting infrastructure will some of the emerging gaps and their impacts arising out of the need to adapt to these environmental challenges. The Shoreline Management Plans and the HRAs and options for Shoreline Management Plans nationally seeks to address these working more collaboratively with wider stakeholders to meet considerations by setting out a framework and timescale by these challenges. It also seeks to set out a road map for further when the policy will be enacted to meet the challenges of work to be undertaken during 2020/21.This will look to assess climate change and rising sea levels. in greater detail the impact of the Shoreline Management The Network Rail Wales and Borders route has the most Plans on the Wales & Borders network to provide a longer-term extensive amount of coastal railway in GB, with a significant line of sight to inform rail funders and policy makers of when part of the rail network located in coastal and river valley future further significant strategic planning and decisions will locations. Often the railway in itself provides either a primary be required. or lesser line of defence against coastal erosion simply due to This document has been produced by the Wales Strategic where it was constructed. Planning team who are part of the System Operator function of Network Rail and if you would like any further information, please contact: [email protected].

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Introduction

Current situation Study Purpose, Scope and Methodology The aim of this study is to outline the key risks facing the This interim study has been produced, following discussions railway and highlighting potential options for the railway over between Network Rail and Stakeholders, initially as a piece of the next three epochs, up to 2105. This document will be used research, to seek to provide an initial assessment of what these to influence strategic planning within the railway and wider complex issues mean for sustaining the national rail network in transport network, which is laid out in the roadmap later in the coastal areas, in line with prescribed policy relating to rising sea document. This study is influenced by climate change and levels and climate change. extreme weather which is an ever-prominent issue making headlines nationally and globally. At the time of writing, the The document is structured as follows: UK, including parts of Wales, is recovering from the damage The Case for Change – outlining why this document has been caused by storms Ciara and Dennis. Not only have these storms produced and explains the global impact of climate change caused widespread flooding to homes and businesses, the and how this explicitly impacts on transport systems and railway has also suffered with some lines closed for several networks. days, and longer across the whole of Wales. There is a need to start considering the longer-term impact of climate change The next three areas highlight the current challenges that and more frequent extreme weather events in our strategic today’s railway faces: planning activity. Habitat in Wales – reviewing the habitat in Wales, why this is Across GB, Wales has the largest amount of coastal railway and a unique challenge, and impacts arising from the need for the continued evidence of sea level rises means a longer-term compliance with Habitat Regulation Assessments; view is required on what the predicted future changes to the Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs) – addressing the Welsh coastline will mean for our railway assets, passengers outcomes of the individual SMPs which have been produced and freight users. These coastal lines generally serve more rural across GB to address future changes in coastal processes such communities, providing key social connectivity for the as sea level rise. This includes three specific geographical case passengers who use them. Due to their coastal nature these studies which illustrate examples of where extreme weather, lines also have vital roles for the local and regional tourism habitat regulations and SMPs are, and will in the future, having industry. an impact on the railway. These are at: Fairbourne, Conwy Additionally, Network Rail needs to be able to continue Valley Line and Old Colwyn Sea Wall; maintaining, renewing and operating these coastal assets AssetCoast – detailing one of the ways Network Rail is looking despite the specific environmental challenges which assets to address these issues, including one of the tools currently face based on their localised shoreline planning and many used to monitor coastal railway assets; locations being in conservation areas. In the future Network Rail needs to understand what funding will be required for How the railway is currently funded – explaining how future asset requirements. This can only be done if shoreline Network Rail is funded and governed in terms of operating, planning is done collaboratively, working with local authorities maintain, renewal and enhancing the rail network; and other infrastructure and land owners. Pilot Research area: Cardigan Bay – detailing the immediate issues facing the railway and communities on the Cambrian Coast Line; Summary and roadmap to final publication – setting out how this document will continue to evolve and develop to a final publication in Spring 2021.

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Introduction cont.

Work to date has involved invaluable collaboration with a This interim document therefore seeks to outline a roadmap to range of industry and wider stakeholders including Natural the further work needed in this regard. This work builds on early Resources Wales and Local Authorities. engagement and activity undertaken with a number of organisations, particularly Gwynedd County Council who is This interim study focuses on the more immediate forecast actively engaging with Network Rail with regard to the impact changes in coastal processes in the Cardigan Bay area and the of Climate Change on the Cambrian Coast Line. Cambrian Coast railway line. Gwynedd County Council have been a key stakeholder as they have carried out more detailed Working with Welsh Government and Natural Resources Wales action planning due to the immediacy of these changes. and other Coastal Groups we will look to share our initial work and develop further policy and strategy collaboratively going Further work will continue following this interim study, forward. extending scope to the other coastal railway lines in Wales and Borders, providing an indication of when further strategic Wellbeing of Future Generations Act planning has to be done in what areas. The summary chapter The Wellbeing of Future Generations Act 2015 is a legislation details the roadmap this work intends to follow to final which applies to all public bodies in Wales and Welsh publication. Government to ensure long term sustainability is key to all their Network Rail has a Network Licence obligation to lead the thinking. The legislation is not applicable to Network Rail planning of the future of the rail network. This study has been because the Act only applies to the 44 public bodies in Wales produced under this framework as a continuous programme of and Welsh Government. However, we felt due to the nature of strategic planning activity in Wales and Borders. this Strategic Planning guidance, it is entirely relevant we include how this study complies with the Act, particularly as the Collaboration local authorities in Wales who lead on their own Shoreline This document highlights some of the significant challenges Management Plans, must adhere to the Act. faced by regional and local communities and the national rail The purpose of the Act is to improve the social, economic, network plays a prominent role in providing access to such environmental and cultural well-being of Wales. It incorporates locations. seven well-being goals: With climate change and other environmental factors and regulations having an impact on Network Rail’s and other • A globally responsible Wales stakeholders’ infrastructure, Network Rail recognises the • A prosperous Wales importance of developing policy and strategies for dealing with • A resilient Wales the impacts of climate change, in close collaboration with the • A healthier Wales communities that the railway serves. • A more equal Wales This recognises the need for a greater focus on how we consider • A Wales of cohesive communities railway and coastal assets holistically from a strategic, • A Wales of vibrant culture and thriving Welsh maintenance and renewal perspective, aligned with policies language outlined in the SMPs. Network Rail believes that this document supports the Wellbeing of Future Generations Act 2015 to help ensure long- term sustainability goals.

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

The Case for Change

“Over 60% of the Welsh population live and Climate Change – An issue for Network Rail The Necessary Steps work on the coast. Our coastlines and Climate change is already having a large effect on the National It was previously suggested that nations already have the Rail Network and infrastructure. This is evident from incidents knowledge and resources to confront climate change. This will riverbanks add great value to our well-being such as extreme weather events that have affected the Conwy remain a challenge and further political impetus will be with their natural beauty, biodiversity and Valley Line particularly in 2019 and 2020, the railway line at required to develop the strategy to limit the use of carbon, recreation opportunities. Flooding of homes, Dawlish in 2014 and where there have been increased created from fossil fuels, such as coal. However, there has been occurrences of temporary speed restrictions due to the impact an increase in awareness of the impacts of climate change and businesses and infrastructure is an of heat on railway infrastructure. Concerningly, trends predict the devastation that it is causing. Heightened awareness is unwelcome risk to many people living in that devastating weather events like heavy rain fall, flooding therefore encouraging governments to take action, which is and heatwaves are set to become more extreme and frequent evident through the Paris Agreement and the Welsh and UK Wales and can have severe detrimental in the future. These extreme weather events are coinciding Governments declaring a climate emergency. The UK impacts on quality of life including mental with a rise in sea levels. Extreme weather events and rising sea Government has also announced the removal of diesel vehicles, health” levels are having a negative effect on the railway network, including trains by 2040. Governmental action is key to destroying infrastructure and delaying passengers. Therefore, encourage businesses and the population to make changes National Infrastructure Commission for Wales Annual this is proving costly to the railway industry, with weather that can help curb climate change. Report related delay minutes costing between £200-300m each year, Therefore, in response to the climate emergency and the diesel this is without the cost of repairing infrastructure. However, ban, the rail industry is taking action to become a zero-carbon disruption to the rail network also has wider socio-economic industry. Nationally, Network Rail is demonstrating leadership impacts, which justifies continued investment to increase within the rail industry to take action and are undertaking weather resilience and to ensure that timely decisions are initiatives such as the traction decarbonisation network made about the future of the railway’s infrastructure, strategy to help towards the goal of zero-carbon. Network Rail especially when considering renewals and enhancements of is also currently working on a national vision and strategy for infrastructure. the next 30 years. It is important that the railway industry is All environmental threats are a challenge to the railway, but strategically thinking about the future because the solutions one of the key threats is rising sea levels, which are predicted needed may take many years to implement to ensure the most to continue rising to unprecedented levels. Rising sea levels appropriate and sustainable transport modes are in place to subsequently increases the risk of flooding which has increased support communities and economies. However, another way in by approximately 230% in the past 20 years [1]. Rising sea which the rail industry is reducing carbon emissions is through levels and subsequent flooding is costing the UK Government its role of providing a lower-carbon transport mode compared £540m every year; making flooding a top priority for UK to other more transport modes which emit increased emissions. [2] Government . Rising sea levels and other extreme weather Specifically, within the Wales and Borders Route, there are events are worsening due to climate change, which is initiatives being undertaken to improve their resilience against subsequently caused by an increase in greenhouse gases weather and climate change events, and in most ways this (GHGs). According to the World Meteorological Organisation, route is ahead of the rest of the country. The Wales and Borders GHGs hit a record high in 2019 with no sign of slowing down, Route is improving resilience through route-specific objectives let alone a decline which is needed to reverse the effects of [3] and understanding risks by assessing their weather-related climate change . However, it is estimated that approximately vulnerabilities. 70% of sea level rises today are attributed to human activity [1]. Therefore Governments, industries and individuals all need to work together to curb the devastating impacts of climate change.

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

The Case for Change cont.

A National Picture A greener railway There are several activities ongoing from a national Following the recent introduction of greener bi-mode Intercity perspective relating to how the industry is reacting to Express Trains (capable of operating under electric or diesel environmental issues and the challenge of climate change, traction) by Great Western Railway which operate between some of which will be outlined in this section. London Paddington and south Wales. Network Rail published a national Weather Resilience and Transport for Wales has also committed to delivering a greener Climate Change Adaptation (WRCCA) Strategy in 2017 which fleet of new trains as part of their rail services contract, with sets out the aim to provide a future rail network that is safe and plans including the introduction of bi-mode and tri-mode more resilient to the effects of weather, now and in the future. (capable of operating under electric, diesel or battery traction) Planning is based on UK climate projections to 2080. trains on the busy core valley lines into Cardiff. Additionally, as part of the West Coast franchise, Avanti has committed to The strategy incorporates the following strategic outcomes: introducing bi-mode trains operating between London Euston • Infrastructure able to withstand the impact of future and north Wales. weather conditions Network Rail is also responding to the UK legal target of • Rapid recovery from the impacts of adverse and achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050, by commencing extreme weather events a Traction Decarbonisation Network Study for the Department for Transport (DfT). This will consider scenarios based on the • Improved performance and safety during adverse and technologies which could be deployed on the unelectrified extreme weather conditions network. • Financial savings through reduced compensation The Rail Delivery Group (RDG) is similarly supporting the payments and repair costs industry in promoting modal shift to rail and the vision of achieving a carbon free railway. • Enhanced reputation and trust in the railway’s ability to manage weather events. For further information: Following on from the publication of the national WRCCA [1] = SeaLevelRise.org https://sealevelrise.org/ Strategy, Wales and Borders has also published a local plan for [2] = Government Office for Science – Future of the Sea: CP6 up to 2024. There are also plans to build upon these with Current and Future Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the UK an update to the WRCCA strategy and a national Rail Industry https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/s Resilience Review to follow in 2020-21. ystem/uploads/attachment_data/file/663885/Future_of_the Nationally Network Rail is also building a high-level _sea_-_sea_level_rise.pdf sustainability strategy which will look ahead 30 years [3] = World Meteorological Organisation considering the response to challenges in all areas of https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/greenhouse- sustainable development, and supporting routes and regions to gas-levels-atmosphere-reach-new-record develop their own aligned sustainability plans and incorporating potential political, technological, social, economic and legal drivers of change.

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Habitat in Wales

An introduction to biodiversity in Wales Habitat Regulations Assessment Process The varied geology and temperate climate in Wales supports a Although habitat regulations have been in place since 1994, rich variety of flora and fauna including some species unique 2017 saw the introduction of the Conservation of Habitats and to Britain and Wales. Because of this rich variety, across Wales Species Regulations. These regulations ensure any plan or there are 20 Special Protection Areas for birds and 92 Special project which is likely to have a significant effect on a Natura Areas of Conservation for other rare species and threatened 2000 site must be subject to an appropriate assessment, which natural habitats. Collectively these, along with similar sites led to the introduction of Habitat Regulations Assessments across Europe, are known as Natura 2000 sites, and they form (HRA). a conservation network of international importance for wildlife HRAs consider several potential impacts of the plan or project and follow legislation designed to protect the most seriously such as: threatened habitats and species across Europe. The sites in Wales are shown in Figure 2 and cover more than • Loss of habitat 700,000 hectares, covering 7% of Welsh land area, and 36% • Site disturbance of terrestrial waters. • Water change and quality There is a commitment for Network Rail Wales Route included in the Strategic Business Plan (SBP) for the period up to 2024, There are several steps to a HRA which any proposer needs to to ‘minimise our impact on the environment’ and there are work through before progressing. A simplified overview of this several activities and principles in place to help support this process is shown in Figure 1. objective through vegetation management, innovation and The final step in the HRA process, if a project progresses that habitat protection. Some of these activities are included in the far, is to identify whether any compensatory measures summary biodiversity report produced by Network Rail (NR) required. This is relevant where it is deemed the plan or project which can be found here: will have an adverse effect on the site, no alternatives solutions https://www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk/resources/wales- exist, and the project or plan needs to proceed due to route-section-6-summary-report-p2 ‘Imperative Reasons of Overriding Public Interest’ (IROPI).

Natural Resources Wales (NRW), who are accountable to Welsh Ministers, are one of the consultees for HRAs in Wales. NRW is the largest Welsh Government sponsored body whose purpose is to ensure that the environment and natural resources of Figure 1: Simplified view of the HRA process Wales are sustainably maintained, enhanced and used. They act as regulator for designated sites, land manager for 7% of the land area in Wales and an environmental operator managing over 500km of flood defences. Network Rail hold a Memorandum of Understanding with NRW which sets out an understanding of common objectives between the two parties, responsibilities and general principles.

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Habitat in Wales cont.

National Habitat Creation Programme What this means to Network Rail The Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs), which are described The Network Rail Wales and Borders route has the most in greater detail later in this document, were also subject to the extensive amount of coastal railway in GB, and most of the HRA process. This concluded that adverse effects could not be coastal railway also features in areas which are classed as ruled out due to the anticipated effects of coastal squeeze Natura 2000 sites, meaning any ‘plans or projects’ in these (coastal habitat such as salt marsh being squeezed between an areas are subject to HRAs. artificial or natural sea defence and rising sea levels), This has resulted in a number of considerations both within NR depending on the policy defined in that area. and with NRW about firstly which projects fall into this process, This resulted in the Welsh Government establishing the if it is deemed that compensation is required, whether NR has National Habitat Creation Programme (NHCP) to help provide any compensatory land available, whether this land is a strategic response to those coastal squeeze issues related to sufficient or suitable, and other issues such as ownership and Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management (FCERM) schemes maintenance of this land. The alternative option if the and is managed by NRW. The purpose of the NHCP is to protect available compensatory land is neither sufficient nor the coast of Wales while managing the effects of our changing appropriate for use, then monetary compensation can be shoreline on designated coastal habitats. It aims to provide offered in order to purchase suitable land. like-for-like habitat compensation through managing existing This is not possible at present as NR’s funding settlement for land in such a way that new habitats, such as salt marsh, can CP6 (the period up until 2024) from the Department for be created, which would then deliver habitat offset Transport (DfT) has been set and funding is only included for requirements detailed in the SMPs. operation, maintenance and renewal of the railway. Any other As part of this programme NRW have been identifying land funding requirements are subject to separate governance which appears most suitable for this purpose and contacting processes. landowners including NR for discussions. It is also worth recognising that the funding issue is somewhat unique in Wales, due to the process by which NRW treats and interprets compensation requirements, compared to the interpretation and treatment by the English bodies such as the Environment Agency (EA), Natural England and the Marine Management Organisation. This applies to projects in the English parts of the Wales and Figure 2: Location of Natura 2000 sites in Wales, from NRW Borders route, which are also in Natura 2000 sites, such as areas of the Severn Estuary. The differences between interpretation in England and Wales will be explored in more detail in the final publication of this document.

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Habitat in Wales: Ferryside Ferryside As mentioned above, works at Ferryside were planned for 2017, A key example of where Network Rail renewal plans are being however due to these issues, the works have still not taken impacted is at Ferryside. This case study shows where the place and is not currently scheduled until further examinations interrelated issues of coastal squeeze, requirements driven by of the asset are undertaken in 2021. The risk of pushing back habitat regulations, other permissions required (such as marine schemes in this way means there is higher likelihood that assets licences) and coordination of multiple organisations, has been could fail, therefore increasing risks to the operational railway a challenge. and its users, and becoming more costly to repair. Additionally, the longer assets are left, the more they deteriorate, which Ferryside is located on the South Wales Mainline between could increase the scope of the original works planned. Llanelli and Carmarthen and is within an area where the SMP stipulates to hold the line for all three epochs; 2025, 2055, Due to the experience at Ferryside, Network Rail asset 2105. managers have decided to push these works into Control Period 6 (CP6 – 2019-2024), but this has meant that there must be a Within this area there is a sea wall which needs to be repointed substitution of other works that were already planned in CP6. and new rock armour is required to protect railway assets. Asset managers have also made the decision to rescheduled These minor renewal works as of March 2020 still have not coastal works that require HRA’s in CP6 towards the end of the taken place, even though they were scheduled for 2017, in a control period, as at present there is no clear solution for previous control period. This is due to the location being in a addressing habitat compensation. However, this adds further Special Area of Conservation and Protection, and the scheme risk that CP6 works may need to be pushed into Control Period requiring an HRA, as detailed above. In this case the HRA which 7 (CP7 – 2024-2029). was completed by Natural Resources Wales (NRW) deemed that this project would require habitat compensation of 1.8 For further information hectares of suitable land such as salt marsh, or a monetary UK Government guidance on HRAs: equivalent. Monetary values differ depending on location, but https://www.gov.uk/guidance/appropriate-assessment in this example, the monetary compensation requested for the

works planned at Ferryside is approximately £100,000, which Welsh Assembly research on HRAs: would effectively mean the cost of the maintenance work https://www.assembly.wales/Research%20Documents/17- would be approximately twice that contained in our business 038/17-038-Web-English.pdf plan. Briefing note from NRW on National Habitat Creation Network Rail has very limited suitable or surplus land which Programme (NHCP): would meet the requirements of NRW to offer as compensation. Additionally, any land transfers or disposal are http://severnestuarycoastalgroup.org.uk/files/2016/03/NRW- subject to regulatory control and ORR approval. There is also NHCP-Background-Brief.pdf no suitable funding allocation to provide monetary compensation. This has therefore resulted in the determination of the Marine Licence, required for the works to progress, being effectively paused until the compensation question has been addressed.

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Shoreline Management Plans

Shoreline Management Plans A flow chart summarising how the SMPs are broken down is Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs) have been produced for shown in Appendix A. the coastlines of England, Scotland and Wales; developed by “A shoreline management plan is a large- In view of the timescales set in various epochs, it is key to the relevant Coastal Groups, with members mainly from the recognise that in the longer-term epochs there is likely to be a scale assessment of the risks associated with local authorities and the Environment Agency and/or Natural requirement for significant decisions affecting choices around coastal processes and helps to reduce these Resources Wales (NRW) following guidance from the the most appropriate and sustainable choices at those Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). risks to people and the developed historic locations. All of the SMPs across England and Wales are detailed on the and natural environment” following page in Figure 3. It is important to note that where a SMP policy has determined a policy which requires intervention, such as Shoreline management plan guidance Volume 1, Defra, 2006 The SMPs identify the most sustainable approach to managing investment in existing or enhanced defences when ‘hold the the flood and coastal erosion risks to the coastline and support line’ has been determined, or movement of the defences in a efforts to prepare for future sea level rises and increased ‘managed realignment’ situation, this does not mean that likelihood of flooding caused by severe weather events over a SMP Policy Definition funding has been secured for this investment. 100-year period. They are non-statutory policy documents for No active A decision not to invest in providing or coastal defence management planning and are designed to intervention maintaining coastal defences Future Asset Management take account of other existing planning initiatives and (NAI) legislative requirements and are intended to inform wider It is key that Network Rail are involved in coordinating and Hold the line Maintain or upgrade the standard of strategic planning. aligning both strategic planning and asset management (HTL) protection offered by existing against future changes in rising sea levels and the impact of defences. SMPs are not designed to set policy for anything other than coastal changes on the railway. Especially because Network Managed Allowing the shoreline to move coastal defence management, but they are being utilised as Rail is not a Coastal Protection Authority but sometimes act realignment backwards or forwards, to realign the the guidance which local authorities and other stakeholders are as the first line of defence, even though the rail infrastructure (MR) natural coastline configuration. using for their future plans for communities, infrastructure and was not built for this purpose. However, this leaves Network Advance the line Building new defences on the seaward land on the coast. A Coastal Group has been set up for each Rail facing some difficult decisions as to the level of (A) side of the original defences. SMP which is led by the leading local authority for that SMP, maintenance that needs to be taken to railway assets where and includes all key partners, infrastructure and land owners additional resilience might be required because the asset is Table 1: SMP Policy definitions. including NRW and Network Rail. effectively a primary or lesser line of defence. Initial SMPs (SMP1) were produced in the early 2000’s, then Other more strategic challenges will also be faced in the more recently a refresh was carried out (SMP2) which enabled future where the shoreline management policy suggests a the SMPs to take on lessons learnt and more detailed strategic relocation of rail assets and/or other transport modes to serve SMP epoch Periods thinking and coastline monitoring. the communities impacted. Epoch 1 Up to 2025 Each SMP is divided into a number of geographical ‘policy Epoch 2 2026 – 2055 units’ and forecast how these stretches of coastline are likely to Epoch 3 2056 – 2105 be affected over three epochs – short term (0-20 years), medium term (20-50 years) and long term (50-100 years). Each Table 2: SMP epochs. policy unit was then assigned one of four policies to be implemented during each epoch.

Tables 1 and 2 on the left illustrate both the SMP policy definitions and epochs in more detail.

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Shoreline Management Plans cont.

For further information The SMPs relevant to the coastal railway assets of Wales & Borders, including links to each are: • SMP 19 Anchor Head to Lavernock Point (Severn Estuary). Lead: Monmouthshire Council. • SMP 20 Lavernock Point to St Ann’s Head (South Wales). Lead: Carmarthenshire Council. • SMP 21 St Ann’s Head to Great Ormes Head (West of Wales). Lead: Pembrokeshire Council. • SMP 22 Great Ormes Head to Scotland (North West England and North Wales). Lead: Blackpool Borough Council.

Figure 3: Shoreline Management Plan locations and lead local authorities, from the Environment Agency (Please note this map pre-dates NRW being established)

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Fairbourne

Fairbourne History Fairbourne is a village located on the coastline of Cardigan Bay Figure 4 shows the one in 10-year flood level according to in south west Gwynedd. It sits on an area of low-lying salt predictions, rising as high as 4.7m above sea level in 2100, with marsh to the south of the estuary of the river Mawddach with regular high tide predicted to be 3.5m above sea level. the Cardigan Bay coastline to the west and Snowdonia It was therefore deemed when the West of Wales Shoreline mountains to the east. Management Plan 2 was published in 2014, alongside The village developed following the arrival of the Cambrian predictions and evidence from local monitoring, that in the Coast railway line in 1855 and a sea wall was built at the time. future it will not be possible to maintain an acceptable Today the village is protected from the sea by a natural shingle standard of protection, nor would it be sustainable or safe for bank which was reinforced with a crest wall in 1977 and residents to remain in Fairbourne from 2054. This means that reinstated in 2019 at a cost of £1.2m following storm damage flooding caused by climate change would impact the village 5 years earlier. The village is protected from the estuary by a sooner than other coastal communities across GB. tidal embankment that was last strengthened in 2013. This has resulted in the local authority coming together with The ground levels in Fairbourne are only around 2.5m above key public bodies and partners, including Network Rail, to Figure 4: Future predicted sea level rise, taken sea level and the average existing spring high tide level produce a framework on addressing the complex issues the from ‘Fairbourne: A Framework for the future’ experienced several times in a year is 2.61m, meaning the community now faces in the future. This has involved the village is highly dependent on the coastal and river flood production of a Coastal Adaptation Masterplan which provides defences. However, predictions that sea levels will rise by a roadmap for the changes needed, highlighting the steps and approx. 1m during spring tides and extreme weather events decisions that will be required in the period to 2054. means it will become harder and costlier to protect the village,

with increased risk to life should the defences fail.

Figure 6: Images of Fairbourne taken during low tide and during Storm Ciara – February 2020 Figure 5: A selection of recent headlines relating to Fairbourne

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Fairbourne cont.

What does this mean for the railway? This means that due to the nature of railway scheme Epoch Epoch Epoch Comments development, planning for options will need to have ideally 1 - 2 - 3 - The Cambrian Coast line has a station at Fairbourne which is commenced by the start of Control Period 10 (CP10: 2039-43). 2025 2055 2105 situated on an embankment behind the village. The station has Before this it is important to understand these longer-term just over 40,000 passenger journeys per year and is the seventh intentions in planning asset renewals in the area as renewals Ro Wen coast HTL MR NAI This would involve busiest on the Cambrian Coast Line between Dovey Junction can typically have a lifespan of at least 40 years, reiterating the relocation of and Pwllheli. There is no question that a large proportion of importance of aligning plans. property owners and these passenger journeys are made by tourists staying in or Ro Wen Spit MR MR NAI businesses from near the village and day visitors, and the consideration would The importance of these considerations has been recognised Fairbourne. need to be made if the village was relocated whether a station by Gwynedd County Council in their SMP planning by having a Fairbourne HTL MR NAI would still be required if the community and market it serves is specific action to initiate a Cambrian Coast transport review Embankment no longer there. Other considerations would need to include with Network Rail and Welsh Government, recognising that whether transport provision would be required in the relocated long term planning of the coastal line will be key in ensuring a Friog HTL HTL HTL This refers to the settlement, and also what form of defence the railway would collaborative aligned approach to planning for the future. railway line behind take once the ‘No Active Intervention’ approach is taken for Fairbourne. For further information the village. Fairbourne Moving Forward Site: Morfa HTL HTL HTL This would secure a The policy in Table 3 which refers to the railway line is that for Mawddach cut off defence to Friog where the policies across the three epochs remain ‘Hold http://fairbourne.info/ the back of the area the Line’, this is reflected in the SMP policy development by to the rear of Fegla Gwynedd, recognising the important role of the railway but Fairbourne: A Framework for the Future public consultation: Islands. also the positioning of the railway as a potential future defence http://fairbourne.info/wp- if the existing sea defences fail once the Managed Fegla HTL MR MR Local consideration content/uploads/2019/10/Fairbourne- Realignment approach and relocation commences in epoch 2 AFrameworkfortheFuture.pdf would be given to (2055). It is worth noting this could result in the railway defence of properties on the becoming potentially a primary or lesser coastal defence, a Fegla Islands and to purpose it does not currently fulfil in that location. Arthog. It is also important to note that where any intervention is required to the railway infrastructure in and around Fairbourne, Key: HTL – Hold the line; A – Advance the line; NAI – No funding above and beyond planned operations, maintenance active intervention; MR – Managed realignment and renewals has not been secured and will need to be sought depending on what the recommended outcome will be. This Table 3: SMP2 policy recommendations from Friog Cliffs to would include the cost of relocating the station or enhancing Arthog. Taken from the West of Wales SMP. defences, if appropriate.

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Conwy Valley Line

The Conwy Valley Line is a relevant example of where the During the reinstatement in 2019, engineers campaigned to Wales and Borders Route has experienced the effects of make the new infrastructure more resilient. The additional extreme whether events and rising sea levels. culverts and embankments were built to modern standards to be resilient throughout their entire design life of approximately The Conwy Valley Line runs between Llandudno Junction and 30 years, to cope with current and future weather events. Blaenau Ffestiniog, which is not located on the coast line, yet is Engineers requested funding for further resilience work to other still feeling the effects of extreme weather and rising sea levels. parts of the line, but funding was not available at the time. The Conwy Valley Line is prone to flooding and has seen flood events in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2020. However, the Conwy Valley Line was impacted again by Storms Previous information and predictions indicate that frequency Ciara and Dennis in February 2020. While the impact of these and extent of flooding will worsen with the impact of climate storms was not as significant as Storm Gareth in 2019, they did change. nevertheless cause significant damage to parts of the line which were not made more resilient in 2019 following Storm The Conwy Valley Line has a history of washouts, including in Gareth. This resulted in the line having to close for remedial the 1980s which led to permanent speed restrictions that were works with subsequent impact on passengers and the still in place until recently when some speeds were reinstated Figure 7: Washout in 2019 after Storm Gareth communities the railway serves. Network Rail are working on a during the 2019 repairs following storm Gareth as detailed design, based on the successful works of 2019 which can be below. However, in more recent times, the Conwy Valley Line implemented on parts of the line which were impacted by has experienced more washouts, and in shorter successions. At Storms Ciara and Dennis; funding is currently being sought for the beginning of 2017, the Conwy Valley Line was washed out this activity. following Storm Doris. Extensive works were required to reinstate and repair the line which meant that the line was closed to passengers for a couple of months. These works cost approximately £6m, which reinstated the line to its original state, with no investment for resilience. Two years later in 2019, the Conwy Valley Line experienced extreme weather again following Storm Gareth. This storm created high tides and a low-pressure system, which led to a record amount of rainfall. The damage was extensive with six miles of track, two stations and eight level crossings requiring significant repair; this meant that the line was closed again, for four months. These significant reactive works cost approximately £12m, double the cost of the repairs undertaken in 2017. An important aspect of the 2019 repairs to the Conwy Valley Line was sustainability and the use of local suppliers and materials. 9,500 tonnes of rock armour and 3,000 tonnes of ballast were used from nearby quarries. Also, all vegetation and Figure 8: Reinstatement works in 2019 after Storm Gareth tree stumps were donated to a local recycling centre to create biomass, 91% of washout materials were recycled and approximately 5,000 tonnes of topsoil were reused on these sites. This is an innovative solution to reduce the railways contribution to further climate change, which is a large contributor in the increase of extreme weather events. 15

March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Old Colwyn Sea Wall

The Old Colwyn sea wall is a coastal defence, most of which is CCBC contacted NR again towards the end of 2019, following owned and maintained by Conwy County Borough Council information that the sea wall is deteriorating and becoming (CCBC) and part by Network Rail. CCBC are concerned with the more vulnerable due to increased frequency and severity of condition of this structure and categorised it as high risk, due coastal storms. CCBC have been carrying out reactive to the sea wall protecting critical infrastructure for the maintenance on their part of the sea wall but have noted that sustainability of North Wales. Increasing severity and collaboration is needed to protect the structure. Network Rail frequency of storm events, combined with the lowering of will continue to look at ways in which we can work with the local beach levels, has left the wall susceptible to scour, damage and authority to undertake renewal work that will also include leading to washout of materials and voiding. However, assessment of how we can improve in the structure. Network Rail is not concerned about the condition of the structure, which is monitored regularly, and maintenance and reactive work is carried out as required; like in March 2019. CCBC applied for funding from Welsh Government to progress with a scheme for a rock revetment structure to protect the frontage during storm events; however, grant funding has not been able to be secured. The scheme was not granted funding as it did not meet the required criteria of grant funding, the main driver being the number of properties it protects from flooding and coastal erosion. Welsh Government indicated that if other stakeholders, like Network Rail, are willing to contribute, Welsh Government will fund up to 75% of grant funding through their Coastal Risk Management Programme. However, Network Rail only has responsibility for the maintenance and inspection for part of the frontage. Work was undertaken by Network Rail in 2014 to the cost of £800,000 to replenish rock armour along with other works, including works to the public steps. Subsequent inspection in 2016 found that the asset was still in a fair condition with little deterioration from the inspection and works undertaken in 2014. There was Figure 9: Damage to Old Colwyn promenade only a slight worsening in isolated areas, which is expected to be addressed within CP6 with £1.2m of investment, and in total, £21m being investment on all coastal assets. Inspectors also indicate that it will take between 17 and 25 years before the structure deteriorates to a poor condition. However, because Network Rail is only funded to operate, maintain and renew its own infrastructure works, which are identified at the start of each control period, it is difficult for NR to allocate already committed funds to external third-party schemes. NR informed CCBC of this in 2018.

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

AssetCoast

A key example of where the Wales and Borders Route is improving their response to extreme weather and impacts on assets is through the use of the AssetCoast, an award-winning asset management tool which has been produced by Network Rail Wales and Borders Route and JBA Consulting to manage coastal assets. It was created due to the route having the largest number of coastal assets in Network Rail, covering a length of 34 miles and following the acknowledgement that NR needed to improve their knowledge and management of coastal assets. AssetCoast assesses the physical condition of the assets, seeking to provide a long-term plan for coastal assets, helping monitor their condition, build risk profiles, plan minor and major intervention works, record works that have been carried out and update inspection regimes. This allows asset managers to flag and prioritise assets rather than using the usual cyclical inspections, which has reduced the number of annual detailed inspections and improves worker safety. Information can be viewed by Network Rail and external structural engineers and contractors including; condition score which aligns with Natural Resources Wales’ scoring, location, access to structures, current and historic defects and which shoreline management policy the asset is under. It also assesses the wider risks posed by coastal processes by providing an alert and warning system for assets five days in advance and identifies the assets most at risk from storm events. AssetCoast represents a step change within Network Rail to manage coastal assets, to ensure a truly holistic approach with asset information that is always up-to-date. It has proven beneficial to provide a collaborative, proactive management of Network Rail’s coastal assets, to help reduce the risk of future devastating damage to our railway. However, this is currently only used for coastal assets, the aim is to create a platform which includes all railway assets. Asset Managers are further understanding how to wider share AssetCoast’s information, collaborating with other public bodies like Natural Resources Wales, Local Authorities and the Welsh Coastal Monitoring Centre to align activities and funding to reduce disruptions to the public.

Figure 10: An extract from AssetCoast identifying key assets

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Rail industry funding

Network Rail is funded by the Department for Transport (DfT) The RNEP process follows the Government Green Book Five to operate, maintain and renew the railway in five-year cycles; Case Model, with the cases and questions they seek to answer control periods. This settlement does not including funding for detailed below: enhancing infrastructure which is described below. • Strategic: does the scheme have the right strategic fit? For renewal of assets, funding provision enables Network Rail to renew assets on a like for like basis to modern equivalent • Economic: does the scheme maximise public value to standards. Assets are identified and prioritised prior to the society? control period and put into a five-year work bank, alongside • Commercial: is the scheme commercially viable? any reactive works. However, asset management teams, especially the geotechnical team, have aspirations to build a • Financial: is the scheme affordable? work bank which considers resilience of assets, focusing of vulnerable areas such as the Severn Estuary and the Cambrian • Management: can the scheme be successfully delivered? Coast Line. Alternatively, funding can also be secured through other Enhancement of the network to deliver improvements such as avenues, such as third parties (local and regional authorities), increased network capacity, improved journey times and Welsh Government and passenger and freight train operating improved resilience would generally require additional specific companies. funding over and above that included in the five-year spending However, the challenge at locations such as the Conwy Valley settlement for OMR (Ops, Maintenance and Renewal), as Line will be to make the case to enhance the network to provide explained above. Therefore, this means that enhancement greater resilience that will reduce future renewal and funding requires the case for investment to be made, following reinstatement costs following further extreme weather events governments appraisal criteria such as WelTAG (Welsh in the longer term. Government) and WebTAG (UK Government) to fund any incremental enhancements. The main mechanism for Additional information: enhancement funding is through the DfT’s Rail Network RNEP Guidance – Enhancement Pipeline (RNEP) process. There are five stages https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rail-network- within the RNEP process to achieve enhancement funding; enhancements-pipeline demonstrated in Figure 11 below with decisions to proceed following each step to be undertaken before a scheme is The Green Book – accepted and delivered. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/s ystem/uploads/attachment_data/file/685903/The_Green_Bo

ok.pdf

Figure 11: The Rail Network Enhancement Pipeline Process

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Pilot research and study area: Cardigan Bay and the Shoreline Planning in Cardigan Bay The Cambrian Railway line In commencing this study, initial discussions were held The railway provides a key transport link in the Cardigan Bay between Network Rail (NR) and Gwynedd County Council alongside the highway and bus network. regarding their progress in responding to the Shoreline Cambrian Coast Line The Cambrian Line runs from Shrewsbury to Dovey Junction, Management Plans (SMPs) in their area. The local authority is via Machynlleth then splits with the south branch running via keen to progress plans in collaboration with key organisations Borth to Aberystwyth; and the north branch – the Cambrian such as NR and were happy to support in the production of this Coast Line, follows the Cardigan Bay coast via Barmouth and interim report. Porthmadog to Pwllheli. It is primarily a single line railway with Gwynedd County Council have already progressed planning in passing loops. their area, not least due to the potential impact the changing Services on the Cambrian operate on a two-hourly frequency shoreline and SMP policies are likely to have on their coastal continuing beyond Shrewsbury to Birmingham International, communities across the three epochs. with hourly services between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury at The SMP which relates to Gwynedd County Council is a certain times of the day. Transport for Wales have plans to particular section of the West of Wales Shoreline Management operate a consistent hourly service between Aberystwyth and Plan: Coastal Area D. This is illustrated in Figure 13 on the Shrewsbury throughout the day from the end of 2022 and following page. there are also plans to run additional weekend services on the Cambrian Coast Line in the summer to serve the vital tourism Each SMP is broken down into a number of ‘Coastal Areas’ and and leisure market in the region. is then broken down further for ease of planning. This process is explained in Appendix A. Railway investment planned in the area includes: Coastal Area D of the West of Wales SMP covers the coastline • a new station north of Aberystwyth at Bow Street, opening of Cardigan Bay, stretching from Sarn Gynfelyn, north of in 2020, funded jointly by the Department for Transport Aberystwyth, to Trwyn Cilan, south of Abersoch. The area (DfT) and Welsh Government (WG); covers the major estuaries of the Dyfi, Dysynni and the • Machynlleth station to benefit from investment in Mawddach, as well as the southern shoreline of the Llyn upgraded facilities and tourism link after being identified Peninsula. There are settlements across the area, including key in Transport for Wales’ station flagship programme; developments such as Machynlleth and Dolgellau at the head • a new fleet of trains from the end of 2022 which will be of the Dovey, and others situated at the mouths of the serviced and maintained at the depot at Machynlleth; and estuaries including Aberdyfi, Tywyn, Barmouth, Porthmadog • the upgrade of the Grade II listed Victorian timber viaduct and Harlech. at Barmouth over the River Mawddach is taking place in The area has an economy based on tourism with many visitors Control Period 6 (CP6). attracted to both the beaches and mountains, particularly with the adjacent Snowdonia National Park. Also nearby are the Figure 12: The Cambrian Coast railway universities of both Aberystwyth and Bangor resulting in a number of students either visiting or living in the Cardigan Bay area.

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Cardigan Bay and the Cambrian Coast Line Asset Management Passenger needs Cont. Due to its coastal nature, the infrastructure on the Cambrian The Cambrian Coast Line from Dovey Junction to Pwllheli, Coast Line has often been exposed to damage from the sea shown in Figure 12, is a scenic rural route with a strong leisure and storms. The NR Asset Management team have identified and tourism passenger market which sees a peak in demand three sites which cause particular challenges and are over the summer months. The line comprises 26 stations identified as priority areas in the Control Period 6 (CP6) which see almost 1 million passenger journeys per year. workbank, scheduled for 2022-23. The anticipated cost for Nearly half of these journeys are served by the three busiest these three schemes is just under £5 million: stations: Barmouth, Harlech and Tywyn, according to the most recent station usage data. • Tywyn: This scheme is to extend the rock armour beyond its current boundary onto land owned by The line also enables passenger access to the heritage narrow Natural Resources Wales (NRW) to provide more gauge railways such as the Ffestiniog Railway, Welsh protection to a section of the railway that is currently Highland Railway and Talyllyn. undefended and regularly receives damage during Currently no freight operates on the route. storms. In terms of passenger satisfaction, the table below shows a • Afon Wen: This scheme is to repair the existing sea wall snapshot of results from the 2019 National Rail Passenger due to the cliff eroding. Prior to this emergency funding Survey, for areas identified as key drivers of passenger was sought to repair a hole which opened up in the sea satisfaction. As you can see passengers surveyed on the TfW wall during Storm Dennis in February 2020. routes which include the Cambrian, scores were generally slightly higher than the overall TfW scores but similar overall • Llanaber: This scheme is to refurbish the concrete wall to the national scores. and replenish the rock armour. All three of these scheme locations are in a Special Area of National TfW TfW Mid Conservation, therefore the works will all be subject to a overall overall Wales & Habitat Regulation Assessment which may require Borders* compensation. This could result in a delay to the project if a marine licence cannot be granted and funding for Overall satisfaction with 82% 79% 81% compensation or compensatory land cannot be sourced. journey In addition to these schemes there is also a number of smaller Punctuality/reliability 74% 76% 82% maintenance jobs which are set out annually over the five- (i.e. the train year control period. These equate to over £5 million and may arriving/departing on also be subject to Habitat Regulation Assessments depending time) on the nature of the schemes and their location.

Level of crowding 71% 70% 69%

Level of satisfaction with 80% 71% 86% the station

* Includes journeys on the Pwllheli/Aberystwyth – Birmingham International, Shrewsbury – Crewe, and Holyhead – Birmingham International lines. 20

March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Cardigan Bay and the Cambrian Coast Line Aligning to the Shoreline Management Plan Some overall considerations which were identified in the SMP Cont. Gwynedd County Council is the lead local authority working action planning which need to include NR are: on the action plan for this section of the coastline, working with key partners including other local authorities and • Collaborative adaptation planning needs to take place infrastructure owners and service providers including Welsh cross-organisation for the area. Water, Natural Resources Wales and NR amongst others. • Review of transport planning needs to take place for the As explained above the West of Wales SMP is broken down area into a number of larger Coastal Areas. It is then broken down • Cambrian Coast transport review required over long- further into ‘Policy Development Zones’ then ‘Management term planning of the railway. Zones’ then ‘Policy Units’. All of these are geographical sections which are divided as such for ease of planning. A flow In light of these actions, Gwynedd County Council have chart explaining this process is shown in Appendix A. recognised that Network Rail were not part of the original action planning which took place as part of the SMP Each ‘Management Area’ then has an action plan associated production and discussions have taken place to commence a with it. Gwynedd County Council have assisted with this more collaborative way forward in planning both adaptation interim study by interpreting the action plan into those and coastal schemes. This will no doubt progress as actions which have relevance to NR. Appendix B details all of production of the final document commences. these actions relevant to NR alongside the policy recommendation for each Policy Unit and epoch. For further information As shown in the detailed tables in Appendix B, there are several areas along the coast which are likely to see a policy The National Rail Passenger Survey Autumn 2019: change to Managed Retreat or No Active Intervention in Epoch 2 (2055). Further planning needs to take place https://d3cez36w5wymxj.cloudfront.net/wp- alongside Gwynedd County Council and other stakeholders to content/uploads/2020/01/27181442/Main-Report-Autumn- understand which of these will have a significant impact on 2019-240120.pdf the railway. This is vital as railway enhancement projects typically commence detailed planning 10-15 years in Figure 13: Coastal Area D from the West of Wales advance, with the potential for strategic network planning to SMP take place even earlier. This would mean areas likely to require changes in Epoch 2 would require strategic planning to commence in Control Period 8 (2029-34) or 9 (2035-39) to enable sufficient time for a scheme to be developed.

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Wales and the national picture The Wales and Borders Route is very committed to improve their resilience against weather and climate change events, and in most ways ahead of the rest of the country. The Wales and Borders Route is improving resilience through route-specific objectives and understanding risks by assessing their weather-related vulnerabilities. Up to WRCCA Pg 12. As shown above, sustainable development and mitigations against climate change are extremely important; governments, businesses and people need to take action. Nationally, Network Rail is demonstrating leadership within the rail industry to take action. Network Rail is currently working on a national vision and strategy for the next 30 years. It is important that the railway industry is strategically thinking about future epoch’s because the solutions needed may take many years to implement to ensure the most appropriate and sustainable transport modes are in place to support communities and economies. In order for the railway to adapt against weather resilience, Network Rail has created a Weather Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation policy. The aim of this policy is to help railway infrastructure to be resilient against future weather conditions and ensure that infrastructure and services recover rapidly after extreme weather events. These initiatives will improve performance and safety during extreme weather, save money through reduced compensation and repair costs and will ultimately enhance the railways reputation and gain trust from passengers and freight customers to use the railway, even during extreme weather. Other relevant associated workstreams A National Picture There are several activities ongoing from a national perspective relating to how the industry is reacting to environmental issues and the challenge of climate change, some of which will be outlined in this section. Network Rail published a national Weather Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation (WRCCA) Strategy in 2017 which sets out the aim to provide a future rail network that is safe and more resilient to the effects of weather, now and in the future. Planning is based on UK climate projections to 2080. The strategy incorporates the following strategic outcomes: - Infrastructure able to withstand the impact of future weather conditions - Rapid recovery from the impacts of adverse and extreme weather events - Improved performance and safety during adverse and extreme weather conditions - Financial savings through reduced compensation payments and repair costs - Enhanced reputation and trust in the railway’s ability to manage weather events.

Following on from the publication of the national WRCCA Strategy, Wales and Borders have also published a local plan for CP6 up to 2024. There are also plans to build upon these with an update to the WRCCA strategy and a national Rail Industry Resilience Review to follow in 2020-21. Nationally Network Rail are also building a high level sustainability strategy which will look ahead 30 years considering the response to challenges in all areas of sustainable development, and supporting routes and regions to develop their own aligned sustainability plans and incorporating potential political, technological, social, economic and legal drivers of change. An example of how Network Rail is responding to a legal driver of change is in commencing a Traction Decarbonisation Network Study, seeking to understand ways the railway can support the UK target of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Transport for Wales have committed to delivering a greener fleet of new trains as part of their rail services contract, with plans including the introduction of bi-mode and tri-mode trains on the busy core valley lines into Cardiff, and the Rail Delivery Group is supporting the industry in promoting modal shift to rail and the vision of achieving a carbon free railway. https://www.raildeliverygroup.com/component/arkhive/?task=file.download&id=469776117

March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Summary and roadmap to final Summary Roadmap to the final publication publication The key priority for this interim document was to undertake Following the production of this interim document, Network research and information gathering on all of the complex Rail will use the information gathered to facilitate broader issues which surround shoreline planning for the coastal awareness and discussions with rail industry, funders and railway in Wales and Borders, and how this interacts with specifiers as well as other key stakeholders and influencers in regional and local shoreline planning. shoreline and habitat planning policy. It has also enabled Network Rail to better understand the Going forward in consultation with such bodies, the intention is implications and challenges of adapting to climate change and to produce a more comprehensive guidance document in future changes in coastal processes such as sea level rise, and collaboration with all coastal groups and key stakeholders how we build this into future strategic planning of the rail covering all the coastal railway in Wales and Borders with an network. intended publication date of Spring 2021. The document will This interim document summarises the following: be published bilingually. • Climate change is already having a significant impact on The final document will also seek to consider the further impact today’s railway through evermore frequent extreme of habitat compensation requirements on Network Rail weather events maintenance and renewals, with a better understanding of the legal perspective of the regulations and differences in • Challenges exist today in balancing railway maintenance interpretation and governance between England and Wales, and renewal works in areas protected for diverse habitats and any related short-term funding gaps which exist. • Network Rail is already actively engaging with local Additionally, the final document will look to provide a detailed authorities, coastal groups and Natural Resources Wales assessment of the impact of the SMPs on all coastal railway (NRW) in shoreline management planning activity. This assets. The purpose of this will be to map the SMP policy continued engagement will be fundamental to delivering against Network Rail’s asset management plans and also to the policies set out in the Shoreline Management Plans provide an early indicative view as to when future rail policy (SMPs) given that coastal railway assets are often a planning and strategic decisions will be required for parts of the primary or lesser line of defence network impacted by climate change and rising sea levels. • Areas have already been identified where further Appendix B sets out the actions, comments and detailed strategic network planning will need to take recommendations relating to the Cardigan Bay area, which place in the future to build into local authority plans, have come from the West of Wales SMP, and in certain cases including at areas such as Fairbourne on the Cambrian these provide some recommendations for how the railway Coast might be affected in the future. The work to be undertaken for the final document will build on this early evidence base.

Acknowledgements Network Rail thank the organisations that have been involved in the Study including but not limited to: • Gwynedd County Council • Natural Resources Wales • Welsh Government • Welsh Local Government Agency 22

March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Appendix A: Flowchart explaining how the Shoreline Management Plans were developed

Shoreline Management Plans (22 geographical across GB) i.e. SMP 21: St Ann’s Head to Great Ormes Head (West of Wales)

Coastal Area Geographical section divided as such for convenience of discussion and policy development. i.e. Coastal Area D: Sarn Gynfelyn to Trwyn Cilan

Policy Development Zone (PDZ) A length of coastline defined for the purpose of assessing all issues and interactions to examine and develop management scenarios. i.e. PDZ10: Sarn Gynfelyn to Tonfanau

Management Area (MA) A geographical collection of Policy Units (PU) that are interdependent and should therefore be managed collectively. i.e. MA19 Dyfi South: Upper Borth to Machynlleth

Policy Unit (PU) Geographical section of coastline for which a certain coastal defence management policy has been defined. i.e. PU 10.1: Upper Borth

Policy per epoch i.e. 2025: MR / 2055: MR / 2105: MR

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Appendix B: Detailed Shoreline Management Plan (SMP) Policies for the Cardigan Bay Area (Coastal Area D of the West of Wales SMP)

Below details each Policy Development Zone under Coastal Area D, what the SMP policies are under each Epoch for each Management Area beneath it, and key actions, comments and recommendations relating to Network Rail taken from the SMP Action Plan.

Policy Development Zone 10 – Dyfi

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Management Area 19 – Dyfi South – Upper Borth to Machynlleth

Policy Location Policy Unit Epoch 1 - Epoch 2 - Epoch 3 - Local Authority Key actions, comments and recommendations taken from the SMP2 in this area which need to be considered by Network Rail: Upper Borth 10.1 MR MR MR Ceredigion • Recommended that adaptation planning takes place for the entire area with all Borth Village 10.2 HTL HTL MR Ceredigion partners. • Management of the area would depend significantly on the continued need to sustain Borth Golf Course 10.3 HTL MR MR Ceredigion the railway line, albeit not necessarily in the same location. Ynyslas 10.4 MR NAI NAI Ceredigion • Due to continued sea level rise, there will be key moments when substantial investment decisions would need to be made, at such times the opportunity should be taken to Afon Leri 10.5 HTL HTL MR Ceredigion consider relocating the railway line to a more sustainable position. Cors Fochno 10.6 HTL HTL MR Ceredigion • Review of transport planning in the area should take place, considering sustainable transport for the whole region. Dyfi Junction 10.7 HTL HTL MR Ceredigion • Recommendation that in Epoch 3 the railway line would need to be relocated along the main inner estuary frontage alongside consideration of the impact on the local highway Morben Hall 10.8 HTL HTL HTL Ceredigion network. Machynlleth 10.9 HTL MR MR Ceredigion • Recommendation that the railway is sustained within the upper estuary, across Dyfi Junction and Machynlleth.

Management Area 20 – Dyfi North, Tywyn and the Dysynni

Policy Location Policy Unit Epoch 1 - Epoch 2 - Epoch 3 - Local Authority Key actions, comments and recommendations taken from the SMP2 in this area which Pennal Valley 10.10 MR MR MR Gwynedd need to be considered by Network Rail: • Gogarth 10.11 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd It is recognised the important transport network in the area would need to be sustained however there is concern that continued defence to the railway across the Dysynni is Dyfi North 10.12 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd going to become difficult to sustain and may present issues in providing a coherent approach to that taken at Tywyn in the south. The plan recommends that the approach to sustain the Aberdyfi 10.13 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd railway is reconsidered with the beneficial development opportunity of a more naturally Aberdyfi Dunes 10.14 MR MR MR Gwynedd functioning estuary mouth and reduced impacts on habitat loss.

Penllyn 10.15 MR MR MR Gwynedd

Tywyn 10.16 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Dysynni Railway 10.17 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Dysynni Estuary 10.18 HTL MR MR Gwynedd

Tonfanau 10.19 MR MR NAI Gwynedd

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Policy Development Zone 11 - Barmouth and the Mawddach

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Management Area 21 – Southern Cliffs

Key actions, comments and recommendations taken from the SMP2 in this area which Policy Location Policy Unit Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 3 Local Authority need to be considered by Network Rail:

Rola 11.1 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd • Agree form of defence to minimise impact on designated sections of the coast. • Although the general aim of the plan in this area is to allow continued natural Llwyngwril 11.2 MR MR MR Gwynedd development and erosion of the shoreline, it is recognised that there is a need to maintain the function of the railway and road and therefore suggests a policy of Hold the Line where Friog Cliffs 11.3 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd these assets are at risk.

Management Area 22 – Mawddach Entrance – South

Policy Location Policy Unit Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 3 Local Authority Key actions, comments and recommendations taken from the SMP2 in this area which need to be considered by Network Rail: o Wen Coast 11.4 HTL MR NAI Gwynedd • Relocation and adaption planning Ro Wen Split 11.5 MR MR NAI Gwynedd • Cambrian Coast transport review required – action to initiate discussion between Network Rail and Welsh Government over long term planning of coastal railway Fairbourne Embankment 11.6 HTL MR NAI Gwynedd • Although there are issues of long term sustainability for Fairbourne, it would be Friog 11.7 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd considered possible to maintain the railway. • The policy for the railway and the land behind would be to Hold the Line and there is Morfa Mawddach 11.8 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd an opportunity to provide defence to areas behind the railway on currently undeveloped land. Fegla 11.9 HTL MR MR Gwynedd • This policy would be extended to include where the railway links through to the bridge and the old railway would probably need to be improved as a flood defence.

Management Area 24 & 25 – Barmouth & DYFFRYN ARDUDWY

Policy Location Policy Unit Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 3 Local Authority Key actions, comments and recommendations taken from the SMP2 in this area which need to be considered by Network Rail: Barmouth South 11.14 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd • Cambrian Coast transport review required – action to initiate discussion between Barmouth North 11.15 HTL MR MR Gwynedd Network Rail and Welsh Government over long-term planning of coastal railway • Intent is to maintain the core areas of Barmouth and the railway line past Llanaber. Llanaber 11.16 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd • Llanaber Point is considered strategically important in maintaining a sustainable defence along both the Barmouth frontages and to the north. As such a broader Policy Location Policy Unit Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 3 Local Authority management of the shoreline is in line with the specific management of risk to the railway.

Egryn Marsh 11.17 MR NAI NAI Gwynedd Sunny Sands 11.18 MR MR MR Gwynedd Islawffordd 11.19 MR MR MR Gwynedd Morfa Dyffryn 11.20 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Policy Development Zone 12 – Coastal Snowdonia

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Management Area 26 ARTRO ESTUARY

Key actions, comments and recommendations taken from the SMP2 in this area which Policy Location Policy Unit Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 3 Local Authority need to be considered by Network Rail: • Cambrian Coast transport review required – action to initiate discussion between Mochras 12.1 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd Network Rail and Welsh Government over long-term planning of coastal railway • It is recognised that maintaining the strategic rail and road routes through the area Artro Southern Split 12.2 HTL MR MR Gwynedd are considered essential and there is little opportunity to move these routes, however, Artro Estuary South 12.3 HTL MR MR Gwynedd equally, defence of these routes is going to become significantly more difficult. • Key elements of the plan would be to continue to defend the main road and railway Artro Estuary East 12.4 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd line. Llandanwg Dunes 12.5 MR MR MR Gwynedd • The preferred plan is for re-examining the whole behaviour of the estuary and developing a sustainable development plan involving the highway authority, the railway and Llandanwg Headland 12.6 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd the National Park planners.

Management Area 27: HARLECH AND THE DWYRYD ESTUARY

Policy Key actions, comments and recommendations taken from the SMP2 in this area which Policy Location Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 3 Local Authority Unit need to be considered by Network Rail: Morfa Harlech 12.7 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd • Cambrian Coast transport review required – action to initiate discussion between Network Rail and Welsh Government over long-term planning of coastal railway Harlech Valley 12.8 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd • Hold the Line is seen as being sustainable over the first epoch, the railway being one of the key justifications for this. By epoch 3 it seems unlikely that defence of the whole area Talsarnau 12.9 HTL MR MR Gwynedd would be sustainable with sea level rise. • The policy for epochs two and three is Managed Realignment, the aim of which would Briwet and Dwyryd Gorge 12.10 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd be to establish a set back line of defence either at the railway line or along the ridge just north of Talsarnau. Upper Dwyryd Estuary 12.11 MR NAI NAI Gwynedd

Penrhyndeudraeth Headland 12.12 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Management Area 28 & 29: The Cob and Porthmadog and CRICCIETH EAST AND EASTERN SHINGLE BANKS

Policy Location Policy Unit Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 3 Local Authority Key actions, comments and recommendations taken from the SMP2 in this area which need to be considered by Network Rail: The Cob and Porthmadog 12.13 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd • Cambrian Coast transport review required – action to initiate discussion between Borth-y-Gest 12.14 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd Network Rail and Welsh Government over long-term planning of coastal railway • Recommendation that realignment of the railway is considered, however it may be Samson Bay 12.15 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd possible to increase the overall control of the frontage in such a manner that the shingle Morfa Bychan 12.16 MR MR MR Gwynedd bank would still continue to provide adequate defence. This would depend on the level of the railway line.

Policy Policy Location Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 3 Local Authority Unit

Criccieth Shingle 12.17 HTL MR MR Gwynedd

Criccieth Harbour 12.18 HTL HTL MR Gwynedd

Castle Headland 12.19 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd

Management Area 30: CRICCIETH WEST

Policy Key actions, comments and recommendations taken from the SMP2 in this area which Policy Location Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 3 Local Authority Unit need to be considered by Network Rail: Criccieth West 12.20 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd • Cambrian Coast transport review required – action to initiate discussion between Network Rail and Welsh Government over long-term planning of coastal railway. Y Dryll 12.21 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd • The longer-term intent to allow the frontage to develop more naturally in the future may put the railway line at risk from increased flooding, with the potential that major works Dwyfor 12.22 MR NAI NAI Gwynedd might be required in epoch three to sustain this route. This clearly has implications with Glanllynnau Cliffs 12.23 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd respect to defence of the railway at Afon Wen. The potential for relocating the railway is recognised to be outside the scope of the SMP. Afon Wen 12.24 HTL MR MR Gwynedd

Pen y chain East 12.25 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Policy Development Zone 13 – The South Llŷn Bays – Pen y Chain to Trwyn Cilan

Management Area 31: PWLLHELI AREA

Policy Policy Location Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 3 Local Authority Unit

Pen y chain and Western 13.1 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd section of Bay

Abererch 13.2 HTL MR MR Gwynedd Glan y Don 13.3 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Pwlheli Harbour and Entrance 13.4 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Pwlheli Centre 13.5 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

South Beach 13.6 HTL HTL HTL Gwynedd

Golf Course 13.7 HTL MR MR Gwynedd Traeth Crugan 13.8 HTL MR MR Gwynedd Llanbedrog 13.9 NAI NAI NAI Gwynedd

Key actions, comments and recommendations taken from the SMP2 in this area which need to be considered by Network Rail: • Cambrian Coast transport review required – action to initiate discussion between Network Rail and Welsh Government over long-term planning of coastal railway • The railway line poses the most immediate risk with the potential of flooding and erosion. Based on the objectives there is a continuing need to maintain this important national transport route. However, to do so would impose a severe constraint on the sustainable management of the shoreline. • Potentially, if re-routing the railway line to the back of the flood plain was unacceptable, then consideration would need to be given to establishing the line on some form of trestle bridge over the new estuary.

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Appendix C: SMP policy maps for Wales for each epoch from Natural Resources Wales

Key: Hold the Line Managed Retreat No Active Intervention

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March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Appendix D: Glossary

Term Meaning ATL Advance the line: Policy decision to build new defences on the seaward side of the original defences. Summary Draft document – key priority – information gathering CMSP is Network Rail’s response to the Shaw Review (2016) Continuous Modular Strategic Planning, part of the Long-Term Planning Process. Recommendation noting the requirement CMSP to better plan the railway based on customer,Summarise passenger key and points freight (table needs. or bullets?) Para for each - Climate change./sea level Connectivity Opportunity to travel between two locations and- associatedSMPs –journey impact time. on railway - Habitat Control Period 5 (CP5) Network Rail is funded in five-year periods. Control Period 5 is the funding period from April 2014 to March 2019. - Impact on railway asset management plans & alignment where railway assets act as coastal Control Period 6 (CP6) Network Rail is funded in five-year periods. Control Perioddefences 6 is the funding period from April 2019 to March 2024. - Future strategic considerations for the coastal Control Period 7 (CP7) Network Rail is funded in five-year periods. Control Periodrailway 7 is thenetwork funding period from April 2024 to March 2029. Defra Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

DfT Department for Transport EA Environment Agency Roadmap to the final Repeat purpose of document Epoch The periods of time which are reviewed in SMPs. Epoch 1: 0-20 years Over the next year we will seek to… Epoch 2: 20-50 years Help inform future required strategic planning and funding Epoch 3: 50-100 years decisions. European Rail Traffic Management System. A system for managing train movements using ETCS (European Train Control System) to signal trains and GSMR (Global System for Mobile ERTMS Communications – Railway: an internationalWhich wireless will communications now be used standard to widen for discussionsrailway communication with industry, and applications) to communicate with trains. funders and wider stakeholders such as local authorities, about ETCS European Train Control System. A new signallinghow the control railway and trainneeds protection to plan system. for the future and align with SMPs.

FCERM Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management This will need to consider some immediate and shorter term GRIP Governance for Railway Investment Projects.funding A Network gaps Rail standard for project managing changes to the infrastructure. Impact of NR renewals – habitat compensation – HTL Hold the line: Policy decision to maintain or change the existing defences. - Better understand legal perspective and differences in interpretation between NRW and EA – obligations

- Hold further discussions with NRW/LAs / Funders 33

Need to extend to other SMP areas and obtain their buy in– key contacts via Coastal Group forum March 2020 Network Rail: Understanding the impact of the Shoreline Management Plans on the railway across Wales & Borders

Appendix D: Glossary

Term Meaning MR Managed realignment: Policy decision to allow the shoreline to move backwards or forwards, with management to control or limit movement.

NAI No active intervention: Policy decision to stop investment in coastal defence or operation.

NHCP National Habitat Creation Programme

NR Network Rail

NRW Natural Resources Wales

OMR Operations, maintenance and renewals.

ORR Office of Rail and Road. The safety and economic regulator for the rail industry in Great Britain.

RDG Rail Delivery Group

RNEP Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline

SBP Strategic Business Plan SMP Shoreline Management Plan

SO System Operator

WG Welsh Government

WelTAG Welsh Government, Transport Appraisal Guidance

WebTAG UK Government, Transport Appraisal Guidance

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