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Probabilities for Determined Precipitation Amounts Appearance and Temperature Sums > 10Oc During a Vegetative Period of the Year

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Probabilities for Determined Precipitation Amounts Appearance and Temperature Sums > 10Oc During a Vegetative Period of the Year BALWOIS 2004 Ohrid, FY Republic of Macedonia, 25-29 May 2004 Probabilities For Determined Precipitation Amounts Appearance And Temperature Sums > 10oC During A Vegetative Period Of The Year BLAGA DIMITROVSKA, ZORAN DIMITROVSKI, PECE RISTEVSKI Hydrometeorological Service of Macedonia Skopje,Macedonia Abstract In this paper are given probabilities for determined precipitation amounts appearance and temperature sums > 10oC (in percentages) for fifteen measure stations in the Republic of Macedonia during a vegetative period of the year (from 1 of April until 31 of October) and for the period 1951-2000. Using the precipitation amounts and sums of temperatures > 10oC during a vegetative period of the year, we calculated hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) by Seljaninov for each year of the period series 1951 – 2000. S. Otorepec categorizes drought for each measure station using HTC values and criterion. Calculating probabilities for determined precipitation amounts appearance and occurrence of temperature sum > 10oC, are very important for water balance calculation, irrigation norms etc. Key words: Hydrothermal Coefficient (HTC); drought; arid; temperature sum Introduction Probabilities for determined precipitation amounts appearance and temperature sums > 10oC (in percentages) during a vegetative period are essential for water and thermal regime for any country. This paper, analyze appearance of predetermined precipitation amounts and sums of temperatures > 10oC during a vegetative period of the year for the year series 1951-2000 from 14 meteo stations in Republic of Macedonia. Including the sums of active temperatures and precipitations, Seljaninov’s formula calculates hydrothermal coefficient (HTC). Arid criterions determined by Silva Otorepec and Seljaninov establish measurement point’s classification. Such a long series of years enables accurate class determination for each measurement point. On the other hand it helps to obtain agroclimatological area constellation for our country. Precipitation amounts appearance probability Water quantity in soil depends of precipitation, which have to supply permanent influx of easy receptive water for a normal growth and development of the plants. Annual precipitation amounts are insufficient for an agricultural irrigation effect, but precipitation distribution during vegetative period and irrigational (absorbable) conditions are essential. For a small area, appropriate precipitation disposition analyze has to be made during the vegetative period. So, information (data) about probability for appearance of discrete precipitation amounts is necessary for calculating water balance and establishes irrigation norms. Precipitation supply of 25%, 50%, 75%, and even 90% in some cases, takes advantage especially. Tab. 1 represents precipitation supplies sum of 50%, 75% and 90% and also maximal, minimal and average precipitation amount registries for a series of 50 year (1951-2000) during the vegetative period (from 01.April until 31. October), for each meteo station. As a result of Tab. 1 the highest precipitation sum (no differ if we take in account 25% or 90% e.c. 25 years in 100 years or 90 years in 100 years) is provided in Kr. Palanka of 480 mm and 290 mm. The lowest precipitation sum with supplies of 25% and 50% is attained in Kavadarci and Tetovo (200 mm) and very lowest water supply of 90% attained in Tetovo (150 mm). Climate 1 BALWOIS 2004 Ohrid, FY Republic of Macedonia, 25-29 May 2004 Table 1. Precipitation supplies during vegetative period (01.April-31.October) in (mm), maximum, minimum and average value registries in period 1951-2000. Meteo 25% 50% 75% 90% Maxim. Minim. Average Station value value value Berovo 460 390 320 250 579 166 371 Bitola 400 370 260 230 523 108 307 D.Kapija 340 300 240 210 553 132 281 Gevgelija 410 350 280 200 523 125 317 K.Palanka 480 420 330 290 652 148 389 Kumanovo 390 350 300 200 605 126 318 Ohrid 390 340 290 230 539 131 318 Prilep 410 320 260 200 520 127 307 Skopje 370 310 240 200 486 147 285 Strumica 380 310 250 200 500 144 297 Stip 380 320 230 180 459 120 281 Kavadarci 330 250 200 180 405 99 253 Kocani 390 330 280 230 586 132 304 Tetovo 420 360 200 150 511 141 343 The lowest amounts of precipitation supply (90%) are higher than lowest precipitation sums registries in 50 – year series (1951-2000). Temperature sums >10oC appearance probability Average month temperatures are sufficient to calculate temperature sum during vegetative period. Temperature sums being calculated during vegetative period for 50- year series 1951 – 2000 on 14 meteo stations in Republic of Macedonia. Graph of supply with sets of temperature sums > 10oC is obtained from the values by similar way as the graph of precipitation supply was obtained. Table 2 represents values obtained from a graph of precipitation supplies for 25%, 50%, 75% and 90%, as is temperature sums > 10oC for all meteo stations. Maximal, minimal and average temperature sums > 10oC registries in 50 – years series (1951 – 2000) are represented also. Table 2. – Temperature sums supplies > 10oC, then maximal, minimal and average values registries during period 1951 – 2000. Meteo. 25% 50% 75% 90% Maxim. Minim. Average Station value value value Berovo 2880 2660 25520 2390 3216 2142 2641 Bitola 3720 3520 3230 3130 4011 2855 3475 D.Kapija 4550 4380 4200 3980 4739 3853 4341 Gevgelija 4640 4470 4240 4060 4962 3802 4410 K.Palanka 3360 3200 3000 2860 3727 2614 3165 Kumanovo 4080 3850 3500 3380 4300 3152 3786 Ohrid 3500 3360 3150 2950 3783 2689 3312 Prilep 3740 3520 3350 3100 4009 2858 3486 Skopje 4200 3950 3760 3560 4528 3211 3909 Strumica 4280 4130 3950 3730 4585 3538 4084 Stip 4380 4100 3820 3720 4556 3439 4055 Kavadarci 4390 4280 4080 3880 4729 3600 4228 Kocani 4400 4220 3980 3850 4752 3728 4157 Tetovo 3900 3620 3250 3100 4183 3032 3561 Obviously the highest supplies of temperature sums > 10oC are obtained in Gevgelija. During 100 years, 25 years are supplied with temperature sum of 4640oC, and 90 years with temperature sum of 4060oC. Climate 2 BALWOIS 2004 Ohrid, FY Republic of Macedonia, 25-29 May 2004 In Berovo there is lowest supplies of 2880oC (25%) and 2390oC (90%). Hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) values by Seljaninov Hydrotermical coefficient by Seljaninov (HTC) is calculated using values of precipitation and temperature sums > 10oC obtained during the vegetative period (01.April – 31.October) for period series 1951-2000 for all meteo stations. Table 3 and Fig 1 show values of HTC for the given meteo stations in Republic of Macedonia for each year during the period 1951 – 2000. Table 3. Hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) values (according Seljaninov) for the period 1951-2000. i c vo ca ni vo vo dar a Stip mano Ohrid Bitola Prilep Teto Skopje Koca Bero D.Kapija Strumi Gevgelija Kav K.Palanka Ku 1951 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.7 1.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1952 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.5 1953 2.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.6 1954 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 1955 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.1 1956 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 1957 2.1 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.3 1958 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.0 1959 2.6 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.4 1960 1.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.0 1961 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1962 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 1963 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 1964 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.6 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1965 1.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.7 1966 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1967 1.2 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 1968 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.3 1969 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1970 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.7 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.2 1971 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 1.0 1972 2.5 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.5 1973 1.5 0.9 1.0 0.7 2.2 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.5 1974 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 1.5 0.9 1.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.7 1.2 1975 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.4 1976 2.2 1.6 1.0 1.2 2.3 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 1.4 1.5 1977 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 1978 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1979 1.9 1.3 1.0 0.6 1.5 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 1980 1.9 1.0 0.6 1.0 1.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.2 1981 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 .
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