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Turkey Russia Has Turkey Gone Too Far with Russia? January 8, 2016 15 News & Analysis Turkey Russia Has Turkey gone too far with Russia? Stephen Starr duty,” Turkish Prime Minister Ah- met Davutoglu said in the days af- ter the incident. Turkey “will never Damascus bow down to pressure from Rus- sia”, Erdogan said in early Decem- ince June 2013, Turkish ber. President Recep Tayyip Russia says the jet’s black box, Erdogan has taken on and which was opened in the company overcome hundreds of of international experts, is “un- thousands of pro-democ- readable”, which has given Turkey Sracy activists, independent jour- an advantage in the battle for con- nalists, the cleric and former ally trol of the narrative. Fethullah Gulen, a rising Kurdish One of the most galling aspects of political class and elections that falling out with Russia for the Turk- threatened to blow apart his plans ish leadership centres on broader for an executive presidency. aspects of the Syria conflict. For But in his tiff with Russia, he and more than four years, Russia has the ruling Justice and Development shipped weapons, supplies and Party (AKP) face an altogether dif- moved warships to the Syrian re- ferent calibre of opponent. Since gime using a route that passes just Turkey shot down a Russian jet on metres from an office used by the the Turkish-Syrian border on No- past two prime ministers. The of- vember 24th, relations between the fice sits on Istanbul’s Bosphorus two once closely interdependent strait from where Russian vessels countries have plummeted. sail to Syria in plain view. In the days after the jet incident, a man on Turkey has been on a Russian warship passing through the lookout for Istanbul was seen holding a rocket launcher on his shoulder, sending Fateful moment. A burning Russian fighter jet coming down after being shot down near the alternative Turkish media into a frenzy. Turkish-Syrian border, in Hatay on November 24, 2015. suppliers, with the Away from the chest beating it is United States and worth looking at what the fallout the other way around. pliers, with the United States and into the continent slows. Algeria most likely looks like in real terms for Turkey. Yet the cold, hard figures do not Algeria most likely to fill any gap Erdogan was not born yesterday. Before the jet incident Turkey ex- tell Turkey’s whole story. A do- left by Russia. The AKP government he helped es- to fill any gap left by ported about $1 billion worth of mestic market of 76 million people Ties with Israel are back in the tablish and mould is, for better and Russia. foodstuffs to the Russian market, means that national consumption cards, meaning that, among other worse, a ruthless organisation and much of which has since been em- of the now-cheaper fruit, vegeta- points, plans for building a natural yet arguably has been the most suc- Turkey insists the jet violated its bargoed. In 2014, 4.5 million Rus- bles and poultry will help offset the gas pipeline from Israel to Turkey cessful political force in the Muslim airspace while Russia claims the sian tourists visited Turkey, worth loss of the Russian market. may reopen. Energy from Iraq and world for the past decade. He is aircraft, which crashed on Syrian close to $4 billion to the local econ- Furthermore, even though one- Iran forms a cornerstone of Tur- convinced a small spat with Russia soil, never left Syrian territory. Rus- omy — 15% of all Turkey’s interna- fifth of all Russian liquefied natu- key’s fuel needs. will not change that and he might sia’s deputy foreign minister wants tional tourism income. Moscow has ral gas (LPG) goes to Turkey — 40% And after years of distancing it- be right. Turkey to pay compensation and now essentially banned its citizens of all Turkish vehicles run on LPG self from Europe, Turkey can now guarantee a similar incident will from visiting Turkey. rather than more expensive petrol rely on political backing from the Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist not happen again. In sum, bilateral aid between the — guaranteed access to this crucial European Union as Brussels ap- who lived in Syria from 2007-12. Turkey is holding firm. “The pro- two is valued at $30 billion and, on fuel is of huge importance to An- pears happy to send billions of dol- He is the author of Revolt in Syria: tection of our land borders, our the whole, it seems clear that Tur- kara. As a result, Turkey has been lars Ankara’s way as long as the flow Eye-Witness to the Uprising (Oxford airspace, is not only a right, it is a key needs Russia much more than on the lookout for alternative sup- of desperate refugees and migrants University Press, 2012). Will Putin play the ‘Kurdish card’ against Turkey? Viewpoint n the aftermath of the And it is here that Russia, if On December 23rd, HDP leader from Russia: “I will apologise if November 24th downing of a pressed further, could make life Selahattin Demirtas met Russian Erdogan (the government) can state a single Syrian-based Russian Su-24 difficult for Erdogan by providing Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in benefit for Turkey in the downing bomber that allegedly support to both groups above and Moscow, where they discussed the may find of the Russian jet.” violated Turkish airspace, beyond diplomatic cover. possible opening of a HDP office Putin’s Demirtas’s visit fuelled AKP Russian-Turkish relations Russia’s ambassador to Turkey there. After referring to Turkey’s “blowback” suspicions that there is a Russian- Iquickly plummeted to their worst Andrei Karlov has infuriated An- downing of the Russian fighter as Kurdish deal in the making with level since the Cold War. kara by noting that his government “not right”, Demirtas added: “They includes Putin trying to manipulate the Russian President Vladimir Putin does not consider either the PKK or (the AKP) made a coup after June support Kurds in Syria to overstep Turkey’s immediately denounced the action the PYD as terrorist groups, further 7.” from Kurds red lines along the Turkish-Syrian John C.K. as a “treacherous stab in the back” galling the Turkish government by The next day Turkish Prime not only border. The reality that Erdogan Daly committed by “accomplices of bluntly pointing out: “Neither the Minister Prime Minister Ahmet Da- will eventually face is that both terrorists”, demanded an apology PKK nor the PYD are considered vutoglu told a meeting of business- in Iraq and the Kurds and Russia, with their and ordered the deployment of terrorist organisations by either men in Ankara: “[The HDP] take Syria, but stalwart military operations sophisticated S-400 long-range Russia or the United Nations Secu- sides with whoever Turkey is fac- Turkey against ISIS, are winning the glob- anti-aircraft missile systems to the rity Council.” Underlining this, in ing a crisis with. Demirtas saying in al public relations campaign, while Hamim airbase in Latakia being August, PYD leader Salih Muslim Moscow that Turkey’s downing of itself. Turkey is increasingly viewed as a used by Russia. visited Moscow. the Russian jet was wrong is a total covert ISIS enabler. Three days later Turkish Moscow is also providing politi- disgrace and treason.” Should further Turkish antago- President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cal support to Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Demirtas retorted at a news con- nism goad Russia to directly arm warned that Russia was “playing Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP.) ference in Istanbul after returning the PKK and PYD, the consequenc- with fire”. es for Ankara could be immense, At the heart of the dispute are particularly if the PYD succeeded Ankara’s and Moscow’s polar in establishing an autonomous or opposite views on Syria. Turkey fully independent region in north- maintains the departure of Syrian ern Syria along the Turkish border, President Bashar Assad as essen- leading to increased unrest among tial, a position that Russia totally Turkey’s own Kurds. rejects. Beyond this dichotomy, In world public opinion Russia further differences emerge over is clearly seen in the ascendancy who constitutes a terrorist in as having taken a strong military Syria’s convoluted civil war. stand against ISIS, while Turkey is Russia maintains that forces perceived as having aided in the battling the Islamic State (ISIS) and rise of the jihadist group by main- assisting the Syrian military are to taining a porous border, while be supported, including the Kurd- surreptitiously aiding and abet- ish Workers’ Party (PKK) affiliate in ting ISIS’s black market oil trade. Syrian Kurdistan, the Democratic Adding the proverbial fuel to the Union Party (PYD). Turkey views fire, Putin recently alleged that both groups as terrorists and the Erdogan’s son Bilal was actively Turkish military has repeatedly engaged in the trade. attacked the PKK and on occasion If Erdogan persists in further PYD positions in recent months. “provocations” against Russia, he may find Putin’s “blowback” includes support from Kurds not only in Iraq and Syria, but Turkey Russia is clearly seen in itself — a far higher, scorched earth cost than declining tourism the ascendancy as having revenues and vegetables rotting in the fields. taken a strong military Who’s “playing with fire” then? stand against ISIS. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (R), shows President Vladimir Putin, on John C.K. Daly is a December 8th, a flight recorder from the Russian warplane that was shot down by Washington-based specialist on a Turkish jet on November 24, 2015. Russian and post-Soviet affairs..
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