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East Mediterranean Chronicles East Mediterranean Chronicles A Decade of Change 2009-2019 Volume 3 2015-2016 Editors: Chr. G. Pelaghias Marta Murzanska George Chr. Pelaghias -- European Rim Policy and Investment Council East Mediterranean Chronicles A Decade of Change 2009-2019 Volume 3 2015-2016 East Mediterranean Chronicles A Decade of Change 2009-2019 Volume 3 2015-2016 Edited by Chr. G. Pelaghias Marta Murzanska George Chr. Pelaghias ERPIC European Rim Policy and Investment Council Larnaca 2020 East Mediterranean Chronicles A Decade of Change 2009-2019 Published in Cyprus by the European Rim Policy and Investment Council 27 Gregory Afxentiou Avenue, 6021 Larnaca, Cyprus Copyright © 2020 by European Rim Policy and Investment Council All rights reserved. ISBN: 9798518889668 Editor: Chr. G. Pelaghias. Assistant Editors: Marta Murzanska, George Chr. Pelaghias Editorial & Advisory Board David Altman - Senior Vice-President, Netanya Academic College; Vice-Chair, S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue; Ahmet Djavit An - Political Commentator; Senior Fellow, ERPIC Fanoulla Argyrou - Journalist, Researcher and Author Carol E. Bailey - Energy Consultant; Former Country Manager, Shell; Co-Director of the Energy Program, ERPIC Jorgen Berg - Upstream Energy Advisor; Former Managing Director, Eastern Mediterranean, Schlumberger Joan Brenton Connelly - Professor of Classics, New York University Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak - Researcher, Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security; Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University Antonia Dimou - Middle East and Persian Gulf Unit, Institute for Security and Defense Analyses, Athens Avishai Ehrlich - Professor of Political Sociology, Tel Aviv University Ehud Eiran - Senior Lecturer of International Relations, University of Haifa Marios L. Evriviades - Associate Professor, Neapolis University Paphos Elie Friedman - Senior Lecturer, Department of Multi-Disciplinary Studies, Ashkelon Academic College Laury Haytayan - Middle East and North Africa Director, Natural Resource Governance Institute, Beirut Yair Hirschfeld - Vice-Chair, S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue; Academic Director, Centre for Middle East Studies at Galilee International Management Institute; Lecturer, Department of Middle Eastern History, University of Haifa Abdulla Ibrahim - Senior Advisor, Diplomatic Dialogue, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Egypt Andreas Jacovides - Ambassador a.h., Cyprus Klearchos A. Kyriakides - Deputy Head and Assistant Professor, School of Law, University of Central Lancashire, UClan Cyprus; Director of the Democracy and Rule of Law Program, ERPIC Glen Labhart - Energy Industry Risk Specialist Gary Lakes – Journalist; Co-Director of the Energy Program, ERPIC Andrew Lambert - Air Commodore, RAF (Retired); Former Director of Defense Studies, RAF; Director of the Regional Security Program and Honorary Chairman, ERPIC Eran Lerman - Vice-President, Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security; Former Deputy National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Israel Habib C. Malik - Associate Professor of History (Retired), Lebanese American University; Senior Fellow on Lebanon, Philos Project; Senior Fellow, ERPIC Costas Melakopides - Associate Professor of International Relations (Retired), University of Cyprus Amit Mor - Energy Industry Financial & Strategic Consultant; Senior Lecturer for Energy Economics & Geopolitics, Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center Roderick Pace - Jean Monnet Professor, Institute for European Studies, University of Malta Andrestinos N. Papadopoulos - Ambassador a.h., Cyprus; Author; Honorary President, ERPIC Gerasimos Rodotheatos - Teaching Scholar of Public International Law, Panteion University, Athens Ephraim Sneh - Author; Brigadier General, IDF (Retired); Former Minister, Health, Transportation; Former Deputy Minister, Defense; Chairman, S. Daniel Abraham Center for Strategic Dialogue, Netanya Academic College; President, Board of Trustees, ERPIC Michalis Stavrinos – Ambassador a.h., Cyprus; Lecturer of International Law, European University Cyprus Lars Wedin - Author; Captain, Swedish Navy (Retired); Visiting Fellow, Swedish National Defense College; Research Fellow, Institut Français d'Analyse Stratégique, Paris Jens Wilhelmsen – Fund Manager; Investment Advisor on Energy Industry In memory of S. R. Schwenninger 1951 - 2020 In memory of R. P. Collins 1949 - 2017 Contents Abbreviations and Acronyms i List of Plates iii Preface v Introduction to Volume 3 1 Timeline 3 Contributions 17 1. Islam and Islamism: Can History Suggest How the Strategic Future May Unravel? Andrew Lambert – 21 January 2015 19 2. The Eastern Mediterranean: French Foreign Policy Jean-Lec Florent - 21 April 2015 35 3. Evolving Global Terrorism Threat in and around the Mediterranean Fernando Reinares - 27 May 2015 41 4. Current Geopolitical Issues in the Eastern Mediterranean: Energy Issues Aftab Kamal Pasha - 27 May 2015 45 5. The East Mediterranean Cooperation Council Proposal (EMCC) Chr. G. Pelaghias – 27 May 2015 49 6. The Future Cyprus Settlement: Lessons from Lebanon Habib C. Malik - 24 September 2015 51 7. Long-Term Turkish Strategy on Cyprus as Recorded in the British National Archives Fanoulla Argyrou - 6 October 2015 63 8. The Meaning of ‘Bi-Communalism and its Consequences for Cyprus and the European Union Klearchos A. Kyriakides - 19 January 2016 77 9. The Economic Dimensions of a Cyprus Settlement Aris Petasis - 26 January 2016 91 10. East Mediterranean Energy: A Discussion of Possibilities Gary Lakes - 2 February 2016 105 11. The Islamist Challenge to the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe Shmuel Bar - 9 February 2016 119 12. Recasting the Security of the Eastern Mediterranean Marios Evriviades - 16 February 2016 135 13. Challenges Facing Christian Communities in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East Hrayr Jebejian - 23 February 2016 147 14. Syrian Peace Talks: Prospects of a Great Power Regional Concert? Marios Evriviades and Farid Mirbagheri - 1 March 2016 163 15. The Many-Faced Ideology of Political Islam and Its Challenge to Liberal Democracy Marta Murzanska - August 2016 177 16. Turkish Islamic Organizations in Europe Marta Murzanska – November 2016 195 17. Iran and the Eastern Mediterranean Reza Zabib - 24 November 2016 201 18. Security in the Eastern Mediterranean Kathleen Ann Doherty - 1 December 2016 213 19. Changes in the Balance of Power - Putin, Brexit and Trump Andrew Lambert - 5-7 December 2016 219 20. New Developments in Air Power in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean Asaf Agmon - 5-7 December 2016 245 21. South-East Mediterranean Air Power Projection Ioannis E. Anastasakis - 5-7 December 2016 255 22. Maritime Developments in the Eastern Mediterranean David Ben-Bashat - 5-7 December 2016 259 23. Russian Policy in the Eastern Mediterranean Irina Zvyagelskaya - 5-7 December 2016 267 24. The Role of Iran in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Greater Middle East Ephraim Sneh - 5-7 December 2016 279 25. What Would Be Necessary to Rethink the Iran P5+1 Agreement? Yair Hirschfeld - 5-7 December 2016 287 26. Political Islam in the Eastern Mediterranean Farid Mirbagheri - 5-7 December 2016 297 27. The Latest Developments in Turkey Christos Minagias - 5-7 December 2016 305 28. Turkey’s Struggle for World Hegemony of the Islamic People David Altman - 5-7 December 2016 313 29. The Strategic Culture of Turkey Marcus Templar - 5-7 December 2016 325 30. The Strategic Role of Cyprus: Some Salient Lessons of History Klearchos A. Kyriakides - 5-7 December 2016 337 31. Hydrocarbons Developments in the Eastern Mediterranean Gary Lakes - 5-7 December 2016 355 32. Closing Remarks Andrew Lambert - 5-7 December 2016 361 Concluding remarks to Volume 3 367 Index 369 Contributors 375 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AKP Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (Turkish) - Justice and Development Party BCM Billion Cubic Meters BPD Barrels Per Day BTC Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline CENTO Central Treaty Organization CHP Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (Turkish) – Republican People’s Party DITIB Diyanet İşleri Türk-İslam Birliği (Turkish) – Turkish-Islamic Union for Religious Affairs EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone EMCC Eastern Mediterranean Cooperation Council ENI Eni S.p.A EU European Union GNA Government of National Accord HAF Hellenic Air Force IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICC International Criminal Court ICJ International Court of Justice IDF Israel Defense Forces IGI Interconnector Greece-Italy IMF International Monetary Found INF Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty IS/ISIS/ISIL Islamic State/Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/Levant LNG Liquefied Natural Gas MHP Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi (Turkish) – Nationalist Movement Party i MIT Millî İstihbarat Teşkilatı (Turkish) – National Intelligence Organization NAFTA North American Free Trade Organization NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NHS National Health Service NOBLE Noble Energy, Inc. OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries PKK Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê (Kurdish) – Kurdistan Worker’s Party SBA Sovereign Base Area SDF Syrian Defense Forces SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SFA Syrian Armed Forces SHELL Royal Dutch Shell START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty SYRIZA Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς – Προοδευτική Συμμαχία (Greek) – The Coalition of the Radical Left – Progressive Alliance TAP Trans-Adriatic Pipeline TCF Trillion Cubic Feet TPAO Türkiye Petrolleri Anonim Ortaklığı (Turkish) – Turkish Petroleum Corporation ‘TRNC’ ‘Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus’ UK United Kingdom UN United Nations UNCLOS United Nations
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