The Legacy of Former Chairman Martin. June 13, 1989

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

The Legacy of Former Chairman Martin. June 13, 1989 Alan Greenspan June 13, 1989 Mr. & Mrs. Martin: Thought you might like to have a copy of this. Catherine Mallardi Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2 The Legacy of Former Chairman Martin Chairman William McChesney Martin's into one of the most respected and power­ a crusader eager to do battle on issues in rise in the financial community was mete­ ful forces in the government. or out of his province. He does not invite oric. After graduating from Yale in 1928 he Throughout his chairmanship, Bill Mar­ controversy—even on monetary mat­ took a job at the Federal Reserve Bank of tin was known as a consensus builder who ters . .," according to Business Week ("A St. Louis in the bank examination depart- was flexible toward the economy and the Five-Year Balancing Act," February 18, ment. Two years later, he went to work for Board's many constituents. "Martin is not 1956). "This does not mean that he is un­ A.G. Edwards & Sons of St. willing to take a position, but Louis, heading their statistical that he prefers workable com­ department. He so impressed his At the Federal Reserve System's promises to deadlocks." bosses that they made him a 75th anniversary However, he often disagreed it seems appropriate to honor partner after two years. Seven the tenure of former Chairman with Congress on issues of years later, he was elected Presi­ William McChesney Martin, Jr.; policy independence. His adver­ dent of the New York Stock the longest tenure served sary was Wright Patman (D- Exchange. by any chairman of the Fed. Tex.). Patman believed, as did His distinguished record But the start of the Second of public service will long be many other Congressmen, that World War interrupted his ca­ remembered for integrity, the Federal Reserve Board reer. Martin entered the army as independence, and strength. should maintain the proper sup­ a private, and emerged from the ply of money to foster economic war a colonel. He received the growth. In other words, keep Legion of Merit in 1945. interest rates down. In March His Washington experience 1952, Patman led a Joint Eco­ started with his appointment to nomic Committee investigation the Board of Directors of the to determine the meaning of Export-Import Bank in 1945. He Federal Reserve independence. held the chairmanship and He questioned the Fed's policy served as president until 1949. moves at every turn. He was Assistant Secretary of Chairman Martin, however, the Treasury from 1949 to 1951. championed the full indepen­ In this role, he helped negotiate dence of his organization. A an accord between the Depart­ master of ambiguity, he said that ment of the Treasury and the the Fed's purpose was to insure Board over a long-standing dis­ that the money supply was "nei­ Fed Phrases Attributed pute over the "pegging" of interest rates on to Chairman Martin ther so large as to induce destructive infla­ Treasury securities. "Our purpose is tionary forces nor so small as to stifle our President Truman and members of his to lean against the winds great and growing economy." Indeed, Mar­ administration were trying to finance the of deflation or infaltion tin was so adept at turning a phrase that whichever way Korean War by issuing long-term bonds they are blowing." many classic statements about the nature sold by the Treasury Department at low in­ "The Fed is always the one of the Fed come from "Martinisms" (see terest rates. The Fed was supporting the who takes away the punch sidebar). bond market at lower rates than thought when the party's getting good." During his 19-year tenure (he served un­ normal. Without such support, the bond "Credit is like a rubber band. der Presidents Truman, Eisenhower, sale would create inflationary pressure. Re­ A rubber band is there to be stretched. Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon), the Federal spect for the dollar and American prestige But if you stretch it too far, it snaps." Reserve weathered many storms, both eco­ would falter. nomic and political. Perhaps his toughest The Fed's job was to correct any im­ times were dealing with the monetary balance in the economy, but the job was responses to Johnson's Great Society and tougher because of this "peg" on interest the ensuing buildup of the Vietnam War. rates. Finally, the Treasury and the Fed His term ended in 1970, and President came to agreement with a renewed commit­ Nixon appointed Arthur Burns to be ment to the independence of the Fed. Chairman of the Board. Martin was subsequently appointed Upon leaving the Board, Martin chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of launched a successful consulting business Governors. He was 44 years old. He spent in Washington, D.C. Now 82, he still lives the next 19 years transforming the agency in the area with his wife Cynthia. • A Lifetime of Flexibility and Consensus-Building Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Recommended publications
  • A Taylor Rule and the Greenspan Era
    Economic Quarterly—Volume 93, Number 3—Summer 2007—Pages 229–250 A Taylor Rule and the Greenspan Era Yash P. Mehra and Brian D. Minton here is considerable interest in determining whether monetary policy actions taken by the Federal Reserve under Chairman Alan Greenspan T can be summarized by a Taylor rule. The original Taylor rule relates the federal funds rate target to two economic variables: lagged inflation and the output gap, with the actual federal funds rate completely adjusting to the target in each period (Taylor 1993).1 The later assumption of complete adjustment has often been interpreted as indicating the policy rule is “non-inertial,” or the Federal Reserve does not smooth interest rates. Inflation in the original Taylor rule is measured by the behavior of the GDP deflator and the output gap is the deviation of the log of real output from a linear trend. Taylor (1993) shows that from 1987 to 1992 policy actions did not differ significantly from prescriptions of this simple rule. Hence, according to the original Taylor rule, the Federal Reserve, at least during the early part of the Greenspan era, was backward looking, focused on headline inflation, and followed a non-inertial policy rule. Recent research, however, suggests a different picture of the Federal Re- serve under Chairman Greenspan. English, Nelson, and Sack (2002) present evidence that indicates policy actions during the Greenspan period are better explained by an “inertial” Taylor rule reflecting the presence of interest rate smoothing.2 Blinder and Reis (2005) state that the Greenspan Fed focused on We would like to thank Andreas Hornstein, Robert Hetzel, Roy Webb, and Nashat Moin for their comments.
    [Show full text]
  • Greenspan's Conundrum and the Fed's Ability to Affect Long-Term
    Research Division Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper Series Greenspan’s Conundrum and the Fed’s Ability to Affect Long- Term Yields Daniel L. Thornton Working Paper 2012-036A http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2012/2012-036.pdf September 2012 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS Research Division P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166 ______________________________________________________________________________________ The views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, or the Board of Governors. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Greenspan’s Conundrum and the Fed’s Ability to Affect Long-Term Yields Daniel L. Thornton Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Phone (314) 444-8582 FAX (314) 444-8731 Email Address: [email protected] August 2012 Abstract In February 2005 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan noticed that the 10-year Treasury yields failed to increase despite a 150-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate as a “conundrum.” This paper shows that the connection between the 10-year yield and the federal funds rate was severed in the late 1980s, well in advance of Greenspan’s observation. The paper hypothesize that the change occurred because the Federal Open Market Committee switched from using the federal funds rate as an operating instrument to using it to implement monetary policy and presents evidence from a variety of sources supporting the hypothesis.
    [Show full text]
  • Fed Chair Power Rating
    Just How Powerful is the Fed Chair Fed Chair Power Rating Name: Date: Directions: Sports fans often assign a “power rating” to teams and players to measure their strength. In today’s activity, we will research some of the most recent chairs of the Federal Reserve and assign them “power ratings” to express how truly influential they have been in the United States economy. In this activity, we will judge each person’s prerequisites, ability to play defense and offense. Chair (circle one): Janet Yellen Ben Bernanke Alan Greenspan Paul Volcker 1. Prerequisites will be measured by academic background, research, and previous career qualifications. 2. Offensive acumen will be evaluated using the chair’s major accomplishments while in office and whether he/she was successful in accomplishing the goals for which he/she was originally selected. 3. Defensive strength will be determined by the chair’s ability to overcome obstacles, both in the economy and political pressures, while holding the chairmanship. 4. The chair in question may receive 1-4 points for each category. The rubric for awarding points is as follows: 1 - extremely weak 2 - relatively weak 3 - relatively strong 4 - extremely strong 5. BONUS! Your group may award up to 2 bonus points for other significant accomplishments not listed in the first three categories. You may also choose to subtract up to 2 points for major blunders or problems that emerged as a result of the chair’s policies. 6. This is a group activity, so remember that you and your team members must come to a consensus! Prerequisites Offensive Acumen Defensive Strength Other Details Power 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 Rating Overall Power Rating is __________________________________ 1 Just How Powerful is the Fed Chair Fed Chair Power Rating Strengths Weaknesses Overall Impression Janet Yellen Ben Bernanke Alan Greenspan Paul Volcker 2 .
    [Show full text]
  • Martın Uribe Columbia University Spring 2013 Economics W4505
    Department of Economics Instructor: Mart´ınUribe Columbia University Spring 2013 Economics W4505 International Monetary Theory and Policy Homework 2 Due February 6 in class Current Account Sustainability 1. Consider a two-period economy that has at the beginning of period 1 a net foreign asset position of -100. In period 1, the country runs a current account deficit of 5 percent of GDP, and GDP in both periods is 120. Assume the interest rate in periods 1 and 2 is 10 percent. (a) Find the trade balance in period 1 (TB1), the current account balance in period 1 (CA1), and ∗ the country’s net foreign asset position at the beginning of period 2 (B1 ). (b) Is the country living beyond its means? To answer this question find the country’s current account balance in period 2 and the associated trade balance in period 2. Is this value for the trade balance feasible? [Hint: Keep in mind that the trade balance cannot exceed GDP.] (c) Now assume that in period 1, the country runs instead a much larger current account deficit of ∗ 10 percent of GDP. Find the country’s net foreign asset position at the end of period 1, B1 .Is the country living beyond its means? If so, show why. 2. Ever since the 1980s, when a long sequence of external deficits began, many economists and observers have shown concern about the sustainability of the U.S. current account. Use question 1 and the concepts developed in chapter 2 of the book as a theoretical basis to provide a critical analysis of the attached article from the November 27, 2003 edition of the The Economist magazine entitled “Stop worrying and love the deficit.” 3.
    [Show full text]
  • Alan Greenspan: Finance - United States and Global
    Alan Greenspan: Finance - United States and global Remarks by Mr Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System, at the Institute of International Finance, New York, (via videoconference), 22 April 2002. * * * In recent weeks, economic forecasters in the United States have been debating whether an apparent turning point in the current business cycle augurs a modest or a more robust recovery in the months ahead. Much less attention has been paid to a far more significant event: the impressive ability of the American economy to withstand a severe decline in equity asset values, a sharp retrenchment in capital spending, and an unprecedented blow from terrorists to the foundations of our market systems. As I outlined in congressional testimony last month, if the indications that the contraction phase of this business cycle has drawn to a close are ultimately confirmed, we will have experienced a significantly milder downturn than the long history of business cycles would have led us to expect. Remarkably, the imbalances that triggered the downturn and that could have prolonged this difficult period did not fester. The obvious questions are, what has changed in our economy in recent decades to produce such resilience, and will these changes persist into the future? Doubtless, the substantial improvement in the access of business decisionmakers to real-time information has played a key role. Thirty years ago, the timeliness of available information varied across companies and industries, often resulting in differences in the speed and magnitude of their responses to changing business conditions. In those earlier years, imbalances were inadvertently allowed to build to such an extent that their inevitable correction engendered pronounced economic stress.
    [Show full text]
  • What Has – and Has Not - Been Learned About Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Environment? a Review of the 2000S
    What Has – and Has Not - Been Learned about Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Environment? A Review of the 2000s. Richard H. Clarida* October 12, 2010 I. Introduction As the world economy recovers from the worst financial crisis and deepest, most synchronized global slump in 75 years, policymakers, regulators, and academics are focusing intensely and appropriately on lessons to be learned. Given the magnitude of the crisis, the depth of the recession and the concerns about a sluggish global recovery, there are certainly many questions to answer. Among the most important are: Are inflation expectations ‘well anchored’? What, if any, influence should asset quantities and/or prices have on monetary policy? Do we have sufficient confidence in our alternative monetary policy tools to stabilize the economy at the zero lower bound? The way one answers these questions depends importantly on the conclusions one has drawn about the conduct of monetary policy in last decade and the role of monetary policy, if any, in contributing to the crisis. The subtitle of this paper is not ‘ I Told You So’ and for a good reason. I didn’t, and it wasn’t because I was shy. Rather, as will be discussed later, I, like the vast majority of economists and policymakers, suffered – in retrospect – from Warren Buffet’s ‘lifeguard at the beach’ problem: “you don’t know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out”. In Section II, I first review and then offer my own assessment of the pre- crisis consensus about inflation targeting and the role of asset prices and quantities as an influence on policy in an economy in which inflation – and inflation expectations – are, or at least appear to be, well anchored.
    [Show full text]
  • The Federal Reserve's Response to the 1987 Market Crash
    PRELIMINARY YPFS DISCUSSION DRAFT | MARCH 2020 The Federal Reserve’s Response to the 1987 Market Crash Kaleb B Nygaard1 March 20, 2020 Abstract The S&P500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, October 16, 1987 and lost an additional 20% the following Monday, October 19, 1987. The date would be remembered as Black Monday. The Federal Reserve responded to the crash in four distinct ways: (1) issuing a public statement promising to provide liquidity as needed, “to support the economic and financial system,” (2) providing support to the Treasury Securities market by injecting in-high- demand maturities into the market via reverse repurchase agreements, (3) allowing the Federal Funds Rate to fall from 7.5% to 7.0%, and (4) intervening directly to allow the rescue of the largest options clearing firm in Chicago. Keywords: Federal Reserve, stock market crash, 1987, Black Monday, market liquidity 1 Research Associate, New Bagehot Project. Yale Program on Financial Stability. [email protected]. PRELIMINARY YPFS DISCUSSION DRAFT | MARCH 2020 The Federal Reserve’s Response to the 1987 Market Crash At a Glance Summary of Key Terms The S&P500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, Purpose: The measure had the “aim of ensuring October 16, 1987 and lost an additional 20% the stability in financial markets as well as facilitating following Monday, October 19, 1987. The date would corporate financing by conducting appropriate be remembered as Black Monday. money market operations.” Introduction Date October 19, 1987 The Federal Reserve responded to the crash in four Operational Date Tuesday, October 20, 1987 distinct ways: (1) issuing a public statement promising to provide liquidity as needed, “to support the economic and financial system,” (2) providing support to the Treasury Securities market by injecting in-high-demand maturities into the market via reverse repurchase agreements, (3) allowing the Federal Funds Rate to fall from 7.5% to 7.0%, and (4) intervening directly to allow the rescue of the largest options clearing firm in Chicago.
    [Show full text]
  • Speech by Vice Chair Clarida on Models, Markets, and Monetary Policy
    For release on delivery 11:30 a.m. EDT (8:30 a.m. PDT) May 3, 2019 Models, Markets, and Monetary Policy Remarks by Richard H. Clarida Vice Chair Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at “Strategies for Monetary Policy,” a Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference Stanford University Stanford, California May 3, 2019 It is an honor and a privilege to participate once again in this annual Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference. The topic of this year’s conference, “Strategies for Monetary Policy,” is especially timely. As you know, the Federal Reserve System is conducting a review of the strategy, tools, and communication practices we deploy to pursue our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability. In this review, we expect to benefit from the insights and perspectives that are presented today, as well as those offered at other conferences devoted to this topic, as we assess possible practical ways in which we might refine our existing monetary policy framework to better achieve our dual-mandate goals on a sustained basis. My talk today will not, however, be devoted to a broad review of the Fed’s monetary policy framework—that process is ongoing, and I would not want to prejudge the outcome—but it will instead focus on some of the important ways in which economic models and financial market signals help me think about conducting monetary policy in practice after a career of thinking about it in theory.1 The Role of Monetary Policy Let me set the scene with a very brief—and certainly selective—review of the evolution over the past several decades of professional thinking about monetary policy.
    [Show full text]
  • Arthur Burns and G. William Miller: the Hapless Inflators
    Excerpt from Fed Watching for Fun and Profit Edward Yardeni March 2020 Chapter 3 Arthur Burns and G. William Miller: The Hapless Inflators Fueling the Great Inflation Arthur Burns served as Fed chair from February 1, 1970 to January 31, 1978 under Presidents Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and Jimmy Carter. Burns was an academic, and the first PhD macroeconomist to head the Fed. He taught economics at both Rutgers University (starting in 1927) and Columbia University (1945), having earned his PhD at the latter. As a doctoral student at Columbia, Burns studied under Wesley Clair Mitchell, a founder of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and its chief researcher. Mitchell brought Burns into the NBER, where Burns began his lifelong research into the business cycle. Together, in 1946, they published Measuring Business Cycles, which introduced the characteristic NBER methods of analyzing business cycles empirically.32 It was Burns who started the NBER’s academic tradition of determining recessions—a role that has been continued by the organization’s Business Cycle Dating Committee. The NBER remains the preeminent authority on dating recessions.[33] Burns served as president and chair of the NBER at points throughout his teaching career. He also chaired the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) from 1953 to 1956 under President Dwight Eisenhower. The CEA was established by the Employment Act of 1946, which stated that it is the responsibility of the federal government to create “conditions under which there will be afforded useful employment for those able, willing, and seeking work, and to promote maximum employment, production, and purchasing power.” The CEA was created to help President Eisenhower and successive Presidents make sure another Great Depression would never happen.
    [Show full text]
  • FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM the First 100 Years
    FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM The First 100 Years A CHAPTER IN THE HISTORY OF CENTRAL BANKING FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM The First 100 Years A Chapter in the History of Central Banking n 1913, Albert Einstein was working on his established the second Bank of the United States. It new theory of gravity, Richard Nixon was was also given a 20-year charter and operated from born, and Franklin D. Roosevelt was sworn 1816 to 1836; however, its charter was not renewed in as assistant secretary of the Navy. It was either. After the charter expired, the United States also the year Woodrow Wilson took the oath endured a series of financial crises during the 19th of office as the 28th President of the United and early 20th centuries. Several factors contributed IStates, intent on advocating progressive reform to the crises, including a number of bank failures, and change. One of his biggest reforms occurred which generated waves of bank panics and on December 23, 1913, when he signed the Federal economic instability.2 Reserve Act into law. This landmark legislation When Jay Cooke and Company, the nation’s created the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s largest bank, failed in 1873, a panic erupted, leading central bank.1 to runs on other financial institutions. Within months, the nation’s economic problems deepened as silver A Need for Stability prices dropped after the Coinage Act of 1873 was Why was a central bank needed? The nation passed, which dampened the interests of U.S. silver had tried twice before to establish a central bank miners and led to a recession that lasted until 1879.
    [Show full text]
  • Core.Ac.Uk › Download › Pdf › 6716331.Pdf C:\Working Papers
    CORE Metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk Provided by Research Papers in Economics NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES A SHORT NOTE ON THE SIZE OF THE DOT-COM BUBBLE J. Bradford DeLong Konstantin Magin Working Paper 12011 http://www.nber.org/papers/w12011 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 January 2006 The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. ©2006 by J. Bradford DeLong and Konstantin Magin. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. A Short Note on the Size of the Dot-Com Bubble J. Bradford DeLong and Konstantin Magin NBER Working Paper No. 12011 January 2006 JEL No. G1 ABSTRACT A surprisingly large amount of commentary today marks the beginning of the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s from either the Netscape Communications initial public offering of 1995 or Alan Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" speech of 1996. We believe that this is wrong: we see little sign that the aggregate U.S. stock market was in any way in a significant bubble until 1998 or so. J. Bradford DeLong Department of Economics Evans Hall, #3880 University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA 94720 and NBER [email protected] Konstantin Magin COINS McLaughlin Hall, #1726 University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA 94720 [email protected] A Short Note on the Size of the Dot-Com Bubble J.
    [Show full text]
  • Federal Reserve Monetary Policy and the Taylor Rule
    102 REVIEW OF BANKING & FINANCIAL LAW Vol. 34 XI. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy and The Taylor Rule A. Introduction The Federal Reserve System (“Federal Reserve” or “Fed”) requires flexibility when it adjusts interest rates, rather than restricting itself to any specific interest rate rule.1 Proponents of the Fed’s current adjustable policy—including former Chairs of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke—argue that any mechanical formula, even if useful as a general policy guideline, could prove ineffective during especially tumultuous or unusual economic times.2 For example, in response to the 2008 recession the Federal Reserve instituted a policy of discretionary stimulus spending, which significantly increased the U.S. national debt.3 Opponents of the current policy seek several changes to the Federal Reserve.4 A recent bill titled the “Federal Reserve Accountability and Transparency Act of 2014,” approved by the House Committee on Financial Services in July 2014, would require the central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) to detail its strategy for adjusting interest rates.5 The FOMC could later change its policy rule, but any changes would be subject to Government Accountability Office (“GAO”) audits.6 The bill proposes 1 Rich Miller, Bernanke, Greenspan Voice Doubts About Tying Fed to Policy Rule, BLOOMBERG (Aug. 5, 2014, 11:49 AM), http://www.bloomberg.com/ news/2014-08-05/bernanke-greenspan-voice-doubts-about-tying-fed-to-policy- rule.html, archived at http://perma.cc/YS9-QRLR. 2 Id. 3 Chriss W. Street, Federal Reserve Moves Closer to Abandoning Keynesianism, BREITBART (Aug.
    [Show full text]