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The Demand-Side Grid (Dsgrid) Model Documentation

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The Demand-Side Grid (Dsgrid) Model Documentation The Demand-side Grid (dsgrid) Model Documentation Electrification Futures Study The Demand-Side Grid (dsgrid) Model Documentation Elaine Hale,1 Henry Horsey,1 Brandon Johnson,2 Matteo Muratori,1 Eric Wilson,1 Brennan Borlaug,1 Craig Christensen,1 Amanda Farthing,1 Dylan Hettinger,1 Andrew Parker,1 Joseph Robertson,1 Michael Rossol,1 1 1 2 Gord Stephen, Eric Wood, and Baskar Vairamohan 1 National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2 Electric Power Research Institute Suggested Citation Hale, Elaine, Henry Horsey, Brandon Johnson, Matteo Muratori, Eric Wilson, et al. 2018. The Demand-side Grid (dsgrid) Model Documentation. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-71492. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71492.pdf. NOTICE This work was authored in part by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36- 08GO28308. Funding provided by U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office of Strategic Programs. The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reports produced after 1991 and a growing number of pre-1991 documents are available free via www.OSTI.gov. Cover image from iStock 452033401. NREL prints on paper that contains recycled content. Preface This report is one in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multi-year research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. This report documents a new model, the demand-side grid (dsgrid) model, which was developed for the EFS and in recognition of a general need for a more detailed understanding of electricity load. dsgrid utilizes a suite of bottom-up engineering models across all major economic sectors—transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry—to develop hourly electricity consumption profiles for every county in the contiguous United States (CONUS). The consumption profiles are available by subsector and end use as well as in aggregate. This report documents a bottom-up modeling assessment of historical (2012) consumption and explains the key inputs, methodology, assumptions, and limitations of dsgrid. The EFS is specifically designed to examine electric technology cost advancement and adoption for end uses across all major economic sectors as well as electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and the economic and environmental implications of electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multi- year duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report released on its own timeframe. Future research to be presented in future planned EFS publications will rely on dsgrid to analyze the hourly electricity consumption under scenarios with various levels of electrification. In addition to providing electricity consumption data for the planned EFS analysis, dsgrid can be used for other analysis outside the EFS research umbrella. More information and the supporting data associated with this report, links to other reports in the EFS study, and information about the broader study are available at www.nrel.gov/efs. iii This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. Acknowledgments The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) is led by researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) but relies on significant contributions from a large collaboration of researchers from the following research organizations: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Evolved Energy Research, Electric Power Research Institute, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Northern Arizona University, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We would like to thank all contributors for useful analysis, data, and input throughout the project. A technical review committee of senior-level experts provided invaluable input to the overall study, with some committee members sharing thoughtful comments on this specific report as noted below. Although the committee members offered input throughout the study, the results and findings from this analysis and the broader EFS do not necessarily reflect their opinions or the opinions of their institutions. The technical review committee is comprised of the following individuals: Doug Arent, Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Jonathan Hughes, University of Colorado Boulder Analysis (committee chair) Sam Baldwin, DOE Michael Kintner-Meyer, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Steve Brick, Clean Air Task Force John Larsen, Rhodium Group Steve Clemmer, Union of Concerned Scientists Bryan Mignone, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company Laura Cozzi, International Energy Agency Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University Francisco de la Chesnaye, Electric Power Patrick Riley, GE Global Research Research Institute Keith Dennis, National Rural Electric Cooperative Laurie ten Hope, California Energy Commission Association Carla Frisch, DOE Joan Ogden, University of California Davis Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Susan F. Tierney, Analysis Group, Inc. Systems Analysis Howard Gruenspecht, Massachusetts Institute of Technology For this report, the authors are grateful to the following individuals for their thorough reviews, comments, and suggestions: • John Agan, Greg Dierkers, Paul Donohoo-Vallett, Robert Fares, Rachael Nealer, Kara Podkaminer, Brian Walker, and Jenah Zweig (DOE) • Erin Boedecker and William Booth (U.S. Energy Information Administration) • Lester Shen (Center for Energy and Environment) • Tom Eckman (Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc.) • Joshua Eichman, Jack Mayernik, Colin McMillan, Daniel Steinberg, Doug Arent, and Dan Bilello (NREL) iv This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. We are grateful to Trieu Mai (NREL) for his leadership of the EFS and review of this work. Primary funding for the EFS is provided by the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office of Strategic Programs. We especially thank Paul Donohoo-Vallett and Steve Capanna of DOE for support, leadership, and review of this report and the EFS as a whole. We also thank Gian Porro and Dani Salyer (NREL) for their program and project management support, and Mike Meshek (NREL) for editing support. Any errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of the authors. This research was funded under contract number DE-AC36- 08GO28308. v This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. List of Acronyms ACS American Community Survey ADOPT Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool AEO Annual Energy Outlook (U.S. EIA) AMY actual meteorological year ANSI American National Standards Institute AWWARF American Water Works Association Research Foundation BCAP Building Codes Assistance Project BFG blast furnace gas BIT bituminous coal BLQ black liquor CBECS Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey CBP County Business Patterns (U.S. Census Bureau) CEE Center for Energy and Environment CEMS continuous emission monitoring systems CHP combined heat and power CONUS contiguous United States DFO distillate fuel oil DG distributed generation dGen Distributed Generation Market Demand (model) DHI diffuse horizontal irradiance DHR diffuse horizontal radiation DHW domestic hot water DNI direct normal irradiance DNR direct normal radiation DOE U.S. Department of Energy DOE CHP DB U.S. DOE Combined Heat and Power Installation Database DPV distributed photovoltaics EFS Electrification Futures Study EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency EPRI Electric Power Research Institute EPW EnergyPATHWAYS weather (file type) ERCOT Electric Reliability Council of Texas EST Eastern Standard Time EVI-Pro Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projection Tool eVMT electric vehicle miles traveled FAA Federal Aviation Administration vi This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. FERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission GCAM Global Change Assessment Model GHI global horizontal irradiance GHR global horizontal radiation GTM Greentech Media GW gigawatt HDV heavy-duty vehicle HVAC heating, ventilation, and air conditioning IAC industrial assessment center IAM integrated assessment model IEA International Energy Agency IGATE-E Industrial Geospatial Tool for Energy Evaluation IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISO independent system operator LBNL Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LDV light-duty vehicle LFG landfill gas LIG lignite coal MDV medium-duty vehicle MECS Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey MG million gallons MISO Midcontinent Independent System Operator MRAE mean relative absolute error MSB biogenic municipal solid waste NAHB National Association of Home Builders NAICS North American Industry Classification System NEEA Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance NEMS National Energy Modeling System NESSIE National Electric System Simulation Integrated Evaluator NGA National Governors Association NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory NSRDB National Solar Radiation
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