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Greenland's Contribution to Sea-Level C Registration Opens for the 2009 GSA Annual Meeting in Portland, Ore., USA VOL. 19, No. 6 A PUBLICATION OF THE GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA JUNE 2009 BackBack toto thethe future:future: Greenland’sGreenland’s contributioncontribution toto sea-levelsea-level changechange Inside: ▲ Dialogue: Industry is not the enemy, p. 11 ▲ Geologic Past: “The Problem of Petroleum,” p. 13 ▲ Groundwork: Painting the Past: From Scientifi c Research to Art, p. 50 Not Just Software. RockWare. For Over 25 Years. RockWorks™ PetraSim™ 3D Data Management, Analysis & Visualization A Preprocessor and Postprocessor for TOUGH2, T2VOC, TMVOC & 3RZHUIXOPHDVXUHGVHFWLRQ TOUGHREACT, TOUGH-FX/ ERUHKROHGDWDEDVHIRU HYDRATE, and TETRAD PDQDJLQJ /LWKRORJ\ 0RGHOPXOWLFRPSRQHQW 6WUDWLJUDSK\ ÁXLGÁRZKHDWWUDQVIHUDQG +\GURORJ\ UHDFWLYHWUDQVSRUWSURFHVV )UDFWXUHV 6DWXUDWHGDQGXQVDWXUDWHG +\GURFKHPLVWU\ HJ FRQGLWLRQV &RQWDPLQDQWV )UDFWXUHGDQGSRURXVPHGLD *HRSK\VLFV 0HVKJHQHUDWLRQSDUDPHWHU «DQGPRUH GHÀQLWLRQDQGGLVSOD\RI &UHDWHVWULSORJV UHVXOWV FURVVVHFWLRQVIHQFHGLDJUDPVDQGEORFNPRGHOV &RQWRXUGDWDLQ'DQG' LVRVXUIDFHV ([WHQVLYHRQOLQHKHOSDQGVDPSOHGDWDVHWV ,QFOXGHV5RFN:RUNV8WLOLWLHV Free trial available at www.rockware.com. $2,499 Call for pricing DeltaGraph™ RockWare GIS Link 2™ The Most Comprehensive Charting Application Available Connecting RockWorks14 and ArcMap $QDO\]HYLVXDOL]HDQG /RDG5RFN:RUNVZHOO FXVWRPL]H\RXUQXPEHUV ORFDWLRQVDVDQ$UF0DSOD\HU HIÀFLHQWO\ZLWKKLJKTXDOLW\ 3LFNSURÀOHVHFWLRQDQGIHQFH RXWSXW GLDJUDPORFDWLRQVLQ$UF0DS )RUPXOD%XLOGHUZLWK JHQHUDWHWKHGLDJUDPV PDWKHPDWLFDOVWDWLVWLFDO DXWRPDWLFDOO\LQ5RFN:RUNV IXQFWLRQV &UHDWHFRQWRXUPDSVRI &XUYHÀWWLQJZLWKDGYDQFHG IRUPDWLRQWRSVDQGLVRSDFKV UHJUHVVLRQWRROV VXUIDFHHOHYDWLRQV 2YHUGLIIHUHQWFKDUWW\SHV *HQHUDWHVWULSORJV DQGGLIIHUHQWVW\OHV +LJKTXDOLW\VFUHHQDQG SULQWHURXWSXW Free trial available at www.rockware.com. Free trial available at www.rockware.com. $295 $349 Since 1983 RockWare.com VOLUME 19, NUMBER 6 ▲ JUNE 2009 SCIENCE ARTICLE GSA TODAY publishes news and information for more than 22,000 GSA members and subscribing libraries. GSA TODAY 4 Back to the future: Greenland’s (ISSN 1052-5173 USPS 0456-530) is published 11 times per year, monthly, with a combined April/May issue, by The contribution to sea-level change Geological Society of America®, Inc., with offices at 3300 Antony J. Long Penrose Place, Boulder, Colorado. Mailing address: P.O. Box 9140, Boulder, CO 80301-9140, USA. Periodicals postage paid C over: Icebergs in Kangia (Jakobshavn Isfjord) close to at Boulder, Colorado, and at additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to GSA Today, GSA the town of Ilulisaat, West Greenland. These icebergs Sales and Service, P.O. Box 9140, Boulder, CO 80301-9140, mostly originate from the calving terminus of Jakob- USA. GSA provides this and other forums for the presentation shavn Isbrae, which collapsed catastrophically in the of diverse opinions and positions by scientists worldwide, late 1990s. Many scientists believe this collapse was regardless of their race, citizenship, gender, religion, or political driven by warmer air and/or sea surface temperatures. viewpoint. Opinions presented in this publication do not reflect See “Back to the future: Greenland’s contribution to official positions of the Society. sea-level change” by A.J. Long, p. 4–10. Copyright © 2009, The Geological Society of America (GSA). All rights reserved. Copyright not claimed on content prepared wholly by U.S. government employees within the scope of their employment. Individual scientists are hereby granted 11 Dialogue: Industry is Not the Enemy permission, without fees or further requests to GSA, to use a single figure, a single table, and/or a brief paragraph of text in 13 Geologic Past: “The Problem of Petroleum” other subsequent works and to make unlimited photocopies of items in this journal for noncommercial use in classrooms to further education and science. For any other use, contact Permissions, GSA, P.O. Box 9140, Boulder, CO 80301-9140, USA, GSA’s 2009 Annual Meeting in Portland, Oregon, USA Fax +1-303-357-1073, [email protected]. 14 Letter from the Annual Meeting Chair SUBSCRIPTIONS for the 2009 calendar year: Society 15 Registration Members: GSA Today is provided as part of membership dues. 15 International Division Travel Grants Contact GSA Sales and Service at +1-888-443-4472, +1-303-357- 1000, option 3, or [email protected] for membership 15 Student Volunteer Program information. 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Fastovsky, University of Rhode Island, 34 Housing Information Department of Geosciences, Woodward Hall, Rm. 317, 35 Hotel Map Kingston, Rhode Island 02881, USA, [email protected]. Managing Editor: Kristen E. Asmus, [email protected] 36 Portland 2009 Hotel Details Graphics Production: Margo Y. Sajban 38 Portland 2009 Organizing Committee 39 Travel & Transportation ADVERTISING: Classifieds & Display: Ann Crawford, +1-800-472-1988, ext. 40 Associated Societies 1053, +1-303-357-1053, Fax +1-303-357-1070; 41 Mentor Programs [email protected] 41 Special Events for K–12 Educators GSA ONLINE: www.geosociety.org 42 Graduate School Information Forum 42 Public Forum Printed in the USA using pure soy inks. 43 Exhibitors 44 Greening the Meeting 46 Call for GSA Committee Service 50 Groundwork: Painting the Past: From Scientifi c Research to Art 52 Classifi ed Advertising 53 GSA International Ambassador Program 54 Journal Highlights GSA celebrates our three-year association with the International Year of Planet Earth. Back to the future: Greenland’s contribution to sea-level change Antony J. Long, Department of Geography, Durham accumulation vary signifi cantly over space and time (e.g., University, Science Site, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK, Andersen et al., 2006). Because of this variability, it is impor- [email protected] tant that recent trends in ice sheet mass balance are consid- ered in a longer-term context. Although each successive year of observation generates ever more data, the only way to ABSTRACT provide meaningful decadal to century-scale perspectives on The Greenland Ice Sheet is presently making a signifi cant Greenland’s behavior is to look to the past. We can estimate contribution to global sea-level rise. Predictions for the future temperature changes from weather stations for much of the suggest that this will continue and likely accelerate during the twentieth century (e.g., Chylek et al., 2006) and compute remainder of this century. However, a comprehensive under- mass balance of the ice sheet from 1958 to 2007 (Rignot et al., standing of ongoing mass balance fl ux has only become pos- 2008) and the surface mass balance back to 1866 (Wake et al., sible in the last decade or so, following the development 2009). However, consideration of earlier changes requires ex- of satellite and other new observational technologies. As a amination of proxy records of ice sheet behavior drawn from result, it is not clear whether the patterns observed today are ice cores, glacial geomorphology, and other paleoclimate ar- typical of the past or not. In this paper, I review predictions chives from Greenland and its adjoining seas. for Greenland’s contribution to future sea-level rise and then place these estimates in the context of the evidence for FUTURE SCENARIOS change during the twentieth century, the last few millennia, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Eemian interglacial. There is evidence that the ice Fourth Assessment Report (2007) predicts that the Greenland sheet responds sensitively to changes in conditions in the Ice Sheet will make a relatively modest contribution to sea- adjacent North Atlantic, leading to a hypothesis that annual level rise in the next 100 years. Using different low to high and decadal fl uctuations in Atlantic air and sea surface tem- emission scenarios, Greenland is estimated to contribute be- peratures shape the ice sheet’s contribution to global sea-level tween 0.01 and 0.12 m of global sea-level rise by 2099, out of change. The recent loss of ice needs also to be seen in the a total of between 0.18–0.59 m (5%–95% range, based on the context of an overall increase in ice sheet size and the related interval between 1980 and 1999 and 2090–2099). Thermal ex- advance of the ice sheet margin by tens of kilometers during pansion of the world’s oceans is predicted to be by far the the past few millennia. I conclude by arguing that in order to largest contributor to future sea-level rise, accounting for 0.1– better constrain the role of the Greenland Ice Sheet in future 0.41 m of sea-level rise by the end of this century. The IPCC sea level, improvements in our understanding of present-day recognizes that Greenland’s contribution (and that of Antarctica) change in the ice sheet
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