2011 Post-Flood Report for the Souris River Basin – Revised March 2012 Page I 8
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2011 POST- FLOOD REPORT For the SOURIS RIVER BASIN US Army Corps of Engineers St. Paul District Water Management & Hydrology Section Revised March, 2012 2011 POST- FLOOD REPORT For the SOURIS RIVER BASIN Submitted to The International Souris River Board And to The United States Department of the Interior Fish and Wildlife Service Region 6 February 22, 2012 (Revised March 2012) TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................1 2. BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................2 2.1. Basin and Reservoir Information .............................................................................2 2.2. 1989 International Agreement for Water Supply and Flood Control ......................2 3. FLOOD METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY .............................................................3 3.1. Antecedent Conditions .............................................................................................3 3.1.1. Fall ...............................................................................................................7 3.1.2. Winter ..........................................................................................................7 3.1.3. Snow Surveys...............................................................................................7 3.2. Flood Conditions ......................................................................................................9 3.2.1. Saskatchewan .............................................................................................13 3.2.2. North Dakota ..............................................................................................14 3.2.3. Manitoba ....................................................................................................15 3.2.4. Flow Frequency and Flow Volumes ..........................................................16 4. COORDINATION OF FORECASTS AND RESERVOIR OPERATIONS ....................22 4.1. Operational and Liaison Responsibilities Under the 1989 International Agreement Between Canada and the United States ...............................................22 4.2. Forecasting and Flood Operations Coordination ...................................................23 4.3. Coordination with Stakeholders .............................................................................25 5. SPRING RUNOFF FORECASTS ....................................................................................26 5.1. 2011 Spring Forecasts ............................................................................................26 5.2. Future Runoff Forecast Modeling Enhancements .................................................32 6. RESERVOIR OPERATIONS ...........................................................................................33 6.1. Canadian Reservoirs ..............................................................................................33 6.1.1. Boundary Reservoir ...................................................................................34 6.1.2. Rafferty Reservoir ......................................................................................35 6.1.3. Alameda Reservoir .....................................................................................36 6.2. Upper Souris National Wildlife Refuge .................................................................36 6.2.1. Dam 41 .......................................................................................................39 6.2.2. Dam 83/Lake Darling ................................................................................39 6.2.3. Dam 96 .......................................................................................................44 6.3. J. Clark Salyer National Wildlife Refuge ..............................................................45 6.3.1. Inflow .........................................................................................................45 6.3.2. Impoundment Operation ............................................................................47 6.3.3. Outflow ......................................................................................................47 7. FIELD RECONNAISSANCE ..........................................................................................48 USACE, St. Paul District – 2011 Post-Flood Report for the Souris River Basin – Revised March 2012 Page i 8. SUMMARY OF HYDRAULIC MODELING DURING THE FLOOD .........................50 9. IMPACT OF THE 2011 FLOOD ......................................................................................50 9.1. Saskatchewan .........................................................................................................51 9.2. North Dakota ..........................................................................................................52 9.2.1. General .......................................................................................................52 9.2.2. U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Refuges .......................................................57 9.3. Manitoba ................................................................................................................59 9.3.1. Agriculture .................................................................................................59 9.3.2. Communities ..............................................................................................59 9.3.3. Infrastructure ..............................................................................................61 10. INTERPRETATION OF 1989 CANADA-UNITED STATES AGREEMENT ...............62 11. LESSONS LEARNED.......................................................................................................63 12. RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................................................................................65 13. SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................67 14. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...............................................................................................68 15. REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................69 APPENDIX A: FIGURES .............................................................................................. A-1 APPENDIX B: SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION ....................................................B-1 APPENDIX C: FORECASTING AND FLOOD OPERATIONS COORDINATION ...C-1 APPENDIX D: COORDINATION WITH STAKEHOLDERS .................................... D-1 APPENDIX E: FLOOD PROFILES ............................................................................... E-1 APPENDIX F: FLOODED AREAS ................................................................................ F-1 USACE, St. Paul District – 2011 Post-Flood Report for the Souris River Basin – Revised March 2012 Page ii LIST OF TABLES No. Page 3-1 Monthly Precipitation Totals in Millimetres (Oct 2010 – Sep 2011) And Percent of Period of Record Seasonal Averages, Souris River Basin in Saskatchewan ...................4 3-2 Monthly Precipitation Totals in Inches (Oct 2010 – Sep 2011) And Percent of Period of Record Seasonal Averages, Souris River Basin in North Dakota ...................5 3-3 Monthly Precipitation Totals in Millimetres (Oct 2010 – Sep 2011) And Percent of Period of Record Seasonal Averages, Souris River Basin in Manitoba ..........................6 3-4 Streamflow Station Information with 2011 Peak Flow and Annual Flow Volume Data and Rankings, Souris River Basin in Saskatchewan .................................................10 3-5 Streamflow Station Information with 2011 Peak Flow and Annual Flow Volume Data and Rankings, Souris River Basin in North Dakota ..................................................11 3-6 Streamflow Station Information with 2011 Peak Flow and Annual Flow Volume Data and Rankings, Souris River Basin in Manitoba ........................................................12 3-7 Souris Basin Project Flood Control Reservoirs, Drainage Area, FSL and 2011 Peak Elevation ............................................................................................................................13 3-8 Summary of June 17th Large Rainfall Event ....................................................................14 3-9 Multiple flood peaks experienced in the Souris River basin in North Dakota ..................15 3-10 Multiple flood peaks experienced along the Souris River in Manitoba ............................16 3-11 Souris River at Sherwood: Annual Instantaneous Peaks ...................................................17 3-12 Souris River at Sherwood: Annual Instantaneous Flow Frequency Values ......................19 3-13 Top 10 Annual Volumes for Specified Durations: Souris River at Sherwood ..................20 3-14 Estimated Frequencies for Specified Durations of Runoff at Sherwood ...........................21 5-1a February 1, 2011 SWA Runoff Forecast for the Souris River Basin ................................27 5-1b 2011 Target Draw Down Levels for the Souris River Basin Reservoirs Based on the 90 Percent 90-Day Inflow Forecast ...................................................................................27 5-2a February 15, 2011 SWA Runoff Forecast for the Souris River Basin ..............................28 5-2b 2011 Target