War and Behavior: Evidence from Angolan Civil War Veterans
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WAR AND BEHAVIOR Evidence from Angolan Civil War Veterans DISSERTATION zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades doctor rerum politicarum (Doktor der Wirtschaftswissenschaft) eingereicht an der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin von Dipl.-Phys. Wolfgang Stojetz Präsident der Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin: Prof. Dr. Jan-Hendrik Olbertz Dekan der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät: Prof. Dr. Ulrich Kamecke Gutachter 1: Prof. Dr. Nikolaus Wolf Gutachter 2: Prof. Dr. Tilman Brück Eingereicht am: 08.03.2016 Tag der Verteidigung: 21.04.2016 Abstract Military service in conict zones strongly marks the lives of millions of people across the world. The objective of this thesis is to contribute to understanding how and why young men are exposed to practices and policies by armed groups, and how these experiences aect their behavior in the long run. The thesis presents three self-contained essays that all address this objective theoretically and empirically. The empirical analysis relies on primary survey data from 760 Angolan veterans, uses deep insights into the local context and exploits the Angolan Civil War as a natural experiment to identify causal mechanisms. Chapter 2 argues that a non-state armed actor may – like a state actor – have the ability to tax a local population and will choose conscription as its primary recruitment policy. Chapter 3 exposes that former soldiers who were more involved in local governance during the war are signicantly more likely to participate in collective public good production more than a decade after the end of the war. Gaining experience with social cooperation increases contributions to organizing public goods, while a shift in political preferences fosters participation in their delivery. Chapter 4 shows that exposure to sexual violence by armed groups signicantly increases an individual’s long-term propensity to commit violence against an intimate partner. This eect is underpinned by a reduction of psychological barriers to violence against women. The thesis contributes to several literatures on the long-run individual-level origins of human behavior and on the conduct and consequences of armed conict. The ndings challenge conventional models of rebel recruitment, dominant theories of domestic violence, and existing knowledge of how war aects local institutions. The ndings can also help policymakers to tackle and leverage long-run impacts of conict on behavior, in order to devise new policies for more cooperative and less violent societies. I Acknowledgements Just a few years ago, I was a Diplom student in physics, enthusiastically researching how electrons interact. It was fantastic – but I became curious about humans. A lot of coursework in economics and prolonged eldwork in Angola would follow. It was excruciating at times, but it was also the most exciting and rewarding journey I could imagine. Its success is the result of the encouragement, support and advice I received from many individuals, groups and institutions. First of all, I am greatly indebted to my supervisor, Tilman Brück. He allowed and encouraged me to pursue my ideas and provided stimulating feedback. I could not have asked for a better guide for this journey – thank you! Tilman Brück’s microeconomic focus was perfectly complemented by the insights from my advisor, Nikolaus Wolf, an economic historian. I am truly grateful for his fantastic advice and support. The study also beneted tremendously from John Spall’s insights and input from the anthropological companion study in the Angolan research project we set up. Preparing the household survey, I received invaluable advice and support from my project advisors, Patrícia Justino and Pedro Vicente. In addition, I would like to thank Patrícia Justino for inspiring and co-authoring my work on local governance. During my time at Yale, I beneted greatly from the supervision, wisdom and expertise of Stathis Kalyvas. Fieldwork in Angola would not have been possible without the support of the Angolan NGO Development Workshop. I am particularly indebted to Carlos Figueiredo for supporting this project from the very beginning and providing a team of motivated and loyal eld workers and coordinators. Elias Boaventura and Inge van Cauwenberg were vital to the organization and success of the survey. I thank Maria Afonso, Rosalina Amindo Kativa, Generosa Bandua, Anacleto Celestino Franco, Wilton Chilembo, Neusa de Lurdes Abrão, Moma Dinis, Amilton Eculica Dias, Anacleto Ferramento Eculica, Victorina Kwenda, Adriano Reis Quintas, and Ermerância Secretária for their help with collecting the survey data. Various other organizations in Angola supported my eldwork, including the German Embassy in Luanda, UTCAH, IRSEM, and numerous municipal, communal, and traditional authorities in Huambo province. For their hospitality and welcoming environments, I thank Dona Aurora, the Carranza-Beltrami family, Dona Ermerância, Carlos Figueiredo, Nuno Ferrão Figueiredo, Prima Silas, and Erwinho Wessely. Cristina Lussiana, Vasco Martins, and the other members of the Tokassikumossi group also II provided several kinds of assistance in Huambo, not least moral support. For institutional support and great academic environments, I would like to thank the sta, researchers and students at the Berlin Doctoral Program in Economics and Management Science, the Department of Development and Security at DIW Berlin, and the MacMillan Center at Yale. I am particularly indebted to Anastasia Shesterinina for sharing her deep insights on war with me. I gratefully acknowledge the nancial support granted by the Fulbright Program, the United States Institute of Peace, the Portuguese Research Council, Humboldt University of Berlin, the Berlin Doctoral Program in Economics and Management Science and the German Academic Exchange Service. Above all, I thank Kathinka and my family for their love and support. III Contents Abstract I Acknowledgements III 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Objective ................................... 1 1.2 Motivation .................................. 2 1.3 Research Design ............................... 3 1.3.1 Methodological concept ...................... 3 1.3.2 Micro-level concept ......................... 3 1.3.3 Case Selection ............................ 4 1.3.4 Identication ............................ 6 1.3.5 Data Collection and Limitations .................. 7 1.3.6 Scope ................................ 9 1.4 Findings ................................... 10 1.5 Related literature .............................. 12 1.6 Policy implications and conclusions .................... 13 1.7 Statement of project and conjoint work . 14 2 Rebel without a Cause? Non-state Recruitment and Institutional Capacity 15 2.1 Introduction ................................. 15 2.2 Recruitment and institutional capacity . 20 2.2.1 State actors and recruitment .................... 20 IV 2.2.2 Non-state actors and recruitment . 23 2.3 The Angolan Civil War and institutional capacity . 25 2.4 Research design and data .......................... 28 2.5 Main results ................................. 29 2.5.1 Institutional capacity and group policies . 30 2.5.2 Selection into UNITA: background . 31 2.5.3 Selection into UNITA: location x time . 34 2.6 Nature of recruitment ............................ 35 2.6.1 Recruitment age .......................... 35 2.6.2 Internal cohesion .......................... 36 2.6.3 Material incentives ......................... 36 2.7 Discussion .................................. 37 2.7.1 Robustness ............................. 37 2.7.2 Qualitative and anecdotal evidence . 40 2.7.3 Multiple strategies ......................... 41 2.8 Conclusion .................................. 41 3 War and Local Governance: Evidence from Angolan Veterans 61 3.1 Introduction ................................. 61 3.2 Theoretical framework ........................... 66 3.2.1 Wartime governance ........................ 66 3.2.2 Wartime governance and long-run behavior . 68 3.3 The Angolan Civil War ........................... 70 3.3.1 Relevance .............................. 71 3.3.2 Natural experiment in exposure to wartime governance . 73 3.4 Empirical framework ............................ 76 3.4.1 Research design and data ..................... 76 3.4.2 Econometric specications ..................... 77 3.5 Results .................................... 78 3.5.1 OLS results ............................. 78 V 3.5.2 IV estimation ............................ 80 3.5.3 IV results .............................. 83 3.5.4 Village level ............................. 83 3.6 Mechanisms ................................. 83 3.7 Political mobilization and social cooperation . 87 3.8 Conclusion .................................. 89 4 Long-run Individual-level Origins of Domestic Violence 101 4.1 Introduction .................................101 4.2 Theoretical framework . 106 4.2.1 From wartime sexual violence to post-war domestic violence . 106 4.2.2 Sexual violence by armed groups against civilians . 110 4.3 The Angolan Civil War . 111 4.3.1 Relevance ..............................112 4.3.2 Natural experiment in exposure to wartime sexual violence . 113 4.4 Empirical framework ............................118 4.4.1 Research design and data . 118 4.4.2 Econometric specications . 119 4.5 Main results .................................121 4.5.1 OLS .................................121 4.5.2 Importance, relevance and validity of IV . 122 4.5.3 IV ..................................123 4.6 Mechanisms