Californiawinning.Com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE. Fall Meet, CLOSEOUT WEEKEND (MANDATORY PAYOUTS, ETC.)

californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE. Fall Meet, CLOSEOUT WEEKEND (MANDATORY PAYOUTS, ETC.)

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2020

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Today’s Card/Horsecellany

There are ten races today, and five are on the grass. There is a graded stakes race, The Senator Ken Maddy, Race 8. ______

STAY HEALTHY…MY FRIENDS...BEWARE THE POSSIBLE FLU SEASON “SPIKE” OF THE COVID 19

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INTERESTING CURRENT JOCKEY STATISTICS

In the back of my mind, I race jockeys first and foremost on their win percentage. I realize of course that the win percentage is substantially affected by the quality of the equine athlete that he/she has ridden. Nonetheless it is a somewhat predicvtive4 measure to rate jockeys. Two other measures of jockey effectiveness are of course career earnings and earnings per start. Here is a list, courtesy Equibase, of the top ten active jockeys who have the most career earnings. You may be surprised not only by the magnitude of the earnings, but also those in the list.

RANK NAME CAREER EARNINGS 1 John Velazquez $424 million (check out the Delta to Number 2!) 2 Javier Castellano $352 million 3 Mike Smith* $332 million 6 Kent Desormeaux $286 million 7 Edgar Prado $270 million 13 Joel Rosario $226 million 14 Robbie Albarado $220 million 15 Rafael Bejarano $207 million 17 Victor Espinoza $204 million 20 Irad Ortiz $193 million * the oldest jockey to ride a Triple Crown winner, Justify, he was 52 at the time

Now for some, like Edgar Prado (53), Kent Desormeaux (50), Victor Espinoza (48), John Velazquez (48), Robbie Albarado (47) and Mike Smith (55), these figures are somewhat a testament to longevity. But I’ll take a 55 year old jockey any day who knows what he is doing and proved it by winning a Triple Crown and many stakes races. Another illuminating figure on jockey prowess is of course “earnings per start.” I will get back to you on that. Pretty sure that Javier Castellano still leads all riders in earnings per start…Cheers! ______

NOTE: FOR THOSE WHO PLAY THE TRIFECTA AND SUPERFECTA, AND SUPER HIGH FIVE, AN ENHANCED VERSION (TOP FIVE HORSES) OF TODAY’S ANALYSIS IS AVAILABLE FOR TODAY AT THE LOW PRICE OF $5. Or, $20 for the Race Week (including Thursday-Sunday, or Friday-Sunday as the case may be). Or, you can do the weekend enhanced plan (Saturday-Sunday) for a mere $10.

New Long-Term Pricing discount for the Enhanced Analysis: You can purchase the Weekly Enhanced Analysis (3-5 races) for $500 for one year, $250 for six months. That is of course a 50% discount. You can purchase the weekend Enhanced Analysis for a year for $300. Or, you can purchase the weekend analysis for six months for $150. That is also a huge discount. The weekend Enhanced Analysis covers Saturday, Sunday and any Monday holiday.

Special Projects- PRICE REDUCTION

There is a fixed price, a reduced price, for Special Projects. All Special Projects which I agree to undertake will cost only $45, no matter how many races are involved. I would still appreciate at least 48 hours’ notice before the Special Project you want me to work on. That is because each “race day” that I work on requires at least 6-8 hours for me to analyze and write up, so a Special Project requires me to revise my work schedule. Thanks… ______Post Time today is 1:00 PM PT, 4:00 PM ET

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2020 LEGAL: FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT--- ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to “predict the future,” because it ain’t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn…so please stick with me if there are a few “speed-bumps” along the way.)

This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a “firm” turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded “fast.” Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my “Handicapping Tips” No. 6, “What If It Rains on Race Day?,” in this regard… californiawinning.com, Graded Selections….as follows…

Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race…I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively…however, as we all know, “a horse is a horse, of course, of course” on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day’s analysis and you will receive the next racing day’s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. ______

Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h…

ULTIMATE PICK OF THE DAY: Defense Wins (3rd Race) PENULTIMATE PICK OF THE DAY: North Pole (9th Race)

Thought for the Day: “the jockey can lose the race, but it is the horse that wins the race…”

Thought two: most horses drink between five to ten gallons of water each day…

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RACE 1

Five raced on the turf, at RD/near RD, and two won, just once --- Brickyard Ride and Undeniable Proof.

Speaking of Brickyard Ride, the narrow ML favorite, the colt won his most recent race, a dirt sprint, and won on the grass at RD here last June and hit the board at five furlongs last August, his two turf sprints, the top 2020 earner carries five to eleven pounds less rider weight than all other entries and sports some very good works, on the main of course, like four furlongs at 471 last time out. Passionate Reward drops significantly class-wise, and he hit the board in his last two turf races, a route and one at five furlongs, last June up north, he has a rider/trainer duo that is as good as it gets, and he hit the board in all eight races on the synthetic, winning a heady four of eight, all wins at sprint distance, he will be in the scrum. Thanks Mr. Eidson hit the board in three of four races at RD/near RD on the turf, the top 2019 earner is a week short of ideal rest which could serve to prevent a win…

RACE 2

All raced the dirt sprint, four at RD. Of the four, only two hit the board: Tough to Break and Tallemark.

Zero Down, top 2020 earner by a significant margin, has carried Gutierrez for seven of her nine races, always an advantage, and she hit the board in two of her three most recent sprints, and the September 26 workout is very encouraging, five furlongs at 593, in this pedestrian field he looks great. Secret Club hit the board at RD plus 330 feet in his debut, the rider is top- notch and the works are creditable. Chipper, racing off about two weeks’ rest, is the stark ML favorite, and the top 2019 earner, he hit the board I both of her dirt sprints and also in his sole turf sprint, works are short but strong and of course Prat aboard strengthens his case, I cannot get around the unprecedented (for him) exceedingly short rest.

RACE 3

Only five contestants raced, and only four at RD. Of the four, three hit the board at RD.

Defense Wins hit the board in five of seven dirt races, and all four sprints, including hitting the board last time out at RD, workouts are steady and strong and the connections are seasoned. Prince Magician carries seven pounds less rider weight than all other entries, and he hit the board in two of three sprints, works are good too, I especially like the five furlongs at 593 early this month. Holden the Lute is the prohibitive and stark ML favorite, as the gelding has the tainted and embroiled yet excellent Baffert as trainer, plus Van Dyke in the irons, he hit the board at RD last time out as the show horse and in the process beat Defense Wins b a neck.

Likeable Longshot: Pelican Way pairs stakes winner Shirreffs with The Inimitable Mike Smith, and sports a ML of 8/1, works are decent and he is wroth of a few Washingtons if the ML holds up as race-time odds.

RACE 4

Five raced on the grass at RD/near RD, and four hit the board on turf at such distance(s).

Superstition is the stark and prohibitive ML favorite, and she placed last time out at RD on the grass, and the Prat/Mandella connection is as good as it gets, the latest workout, albeit short and on the main, shows that she is race ready. Vegas Palm hit the board in all three turf races at RD, placing twice, the top 2020 earner carries the elite Hernandez and is virtually always in the contest and will be so here. Fierce for Sul pairs the elite Baffert with the like Rispoli, she hit the board at five furlongs on the turf last time out and at RD on the main in his debut, the typical Baffert-esque works, on the main of course, are encouraging, like five furlongs at a bullet 591 a month ago, she will make her presence known.

RACE 5

All raced at RD, but only Unbroken Star posted a win at RD (2/3).

Potantico drops from his “high horse” in the graded stakes realm, where he floundered last time out, at RD plus a “half mile,” but he wins 25% of his routes and did hit the board in his one effort at RD, he carries five to seen pounds less rider weight than the rest and the top 2019 earner sports a string of decent works to boot. Unbroken Star as noted won two of three of his races at RD, he is lightly raced and well-rested, and the October 10 workout is impressive five furlongs at 594. Order and Law is the narrow yet prohibitive ML favorite, as the roan placed in his sole effort at RD, he upgrades his rider to the elite Hernandez, just doesn’t win enough for me.

RACE 6

All raced the turf route, three at RD. Only two hit the bord at RD: Irish Heatwave and Go Daddy Go.

Speaking of Irish Heatwave, he drops from the stakes world, where he floundered, but wins nearly 25% of his turf races (4/17), the top 2019 earner in this field placed in his sole effort at RD, here over a year ago, he upgrades his rider to the elite Hernandez and is a force to be reckoned with. Three Ay Em won three of ten turf routes, hitting the board in eight, and is the top 2020 earner in this group, the rider/trainer duo is sublime and he is extremely steady speed-wise and closes out very well, essential to turf success since “everyone” will be battling at the wire… Tripoli, the narrow ML favorite, gets a significant class drop, and he hit the board in two of three turf routes, although his sole turf win came at RD less 1,650 feet, even though the works are decent and the rider/trainer duo top-notch, I don’t see a win here.

RACE 7

All raced the dirt sprint, three at RD specifically. Of the three, two hit the board at RD--- Happy Trails and Malibu Cat (the latter, in the slop).

Magnolia’s Hope is the narrow ML favorite, having own at RD less 330 feet last August, she hit the board in her last three sprints, this year, and pairs the “Baffert of the North” with a top rider to boot. Andyoushallreceive hit the board in three of her five dirt sprints, and just not at RD yet, she is extremely well-rested and will pressure the field. Malibu Cat placed last time out with Prat aboard at RD less a mere 303 feet, she won here last February at RD less a furlong, the trainer is very good and in this jejune field she has a shot.

RACE 8

THE SENATOR KEN MADDY, GRADE III, FIVE AND ONE-HALF FURLONGS, TURF COURSE ($100000)

All raced on the grass, six at RD/near RD, and four entries won at such distance. No entry has won a graded race.

An Eddie Surprise wins 25% of her turf races, and an even better ratio, 50%, of her races at RD (her last four races), where she won two of four, last time out a stakes race win, including hitting the board in a graded stakes race at RD, the seasoned Gutierrez knows her very well, and she is extremely well-rested, works on the main are creditable as well. Jo Jo Air, top 2019 earner, has a turf niche, and that niche is RD/near RD, where the filly has won a heady four of twelve races, the lightly raced filly has a rider/trainer duo that is a raison d’etre, tow of her wins at near RD came in stakes races, and only she and An Eddie Surprise have done that. Magic at Midnight is the stark and prohibitive ML favorite, because she won all four of her sprints, once on the turf, at five furlongs, and Cedillo produced the most recent such win, she is rested too, I just think she may be outclassed here…

RACE 9 Only five entries raced, three in the dirt sprint. No entry raced at RD and only North Pole and Man Friday hit the board in any dirt sprint.

Speaking of North Pole, the prohibitive and very stark ML favorite placed at RD less a furlong in his debut two months ago, the well-rested colt pairs Callaghan with Prat, a prodigious duo, and just worked a respectable five furlongs at 594 a week ago. Union Soldier showed little in his turf route debut seven weeks ago, but the well-rested colt shows creditable works on the main and decent dirt sprint lineage, the rider/trainer duo is beyond reproach. Classier, first-time starter, pairs Baffert with Cedillo a very common, powerful pairing, and the October 19 workout shows that he is surely race-ready, six furlongs at 1:122 (I wonder who had the “bullet” six - furlong workout that day?).

RACE 10 All raced at RD, and ten of the entries won at least once at one mile on the turf.

Mithqaal drops a few notches in class, and pairs the Baffert of the North with a top rider, he wins nearly 25% of his grass races, always routes, and he hit the board in the majority of his races at RD, winning twice, he is for the most part extremely steady speed-wise, closes out well and finished just over a length behind the favorite last time out, at RD here. The stark ML favorite, Shadow Sphinx, is such because he wins a third of his races on the turf (4/12) and half of his grass races at RD (3/6), he too gets the class drop and he will be half of the two -horse duel (I think Wong is an exceptional trainer and will fix what “went wrong” in the last trip…). Likeable Longshot: Try New Year, ML of 30/1, who hit the board in eleven of sixteen turf routes, he drops in class, carries a seasoned rider, is well- rested and won two of ten at RD, hitting the board in seven of the ten turf miles.

Today’s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today’s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you.

Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: [email protected] Also, check out my free “Handicapping Tips” at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, “Probabilities” (Pick 6)”… It’s a can’t miss…and the latest one, “What If It Rains on Race Day?”

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