californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA- THE GREAT RACE PLACE

Sunday, March 31, 2019

Welcome Home! Finally! Happy Spring too..,

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Message Board to My Subscribers Special Projects: Golden Gate- March 24, 2019 Well I had seven of nine races correct for Golden Gate last Sunday as part of a Special Project. The best part is: I had the first six races (i.e., P4 P5) dead to rights. The sole reason I mention this (aside from soliciting more Special Report business, LOL) is it demonstrates that my successful methods are not track- dependent. Keep in mind that if you are making a trip to a different track or ant to wager on a different track’s races I will analyze that track for a given day for a price that we negotiate. Please be sure to give me three or more days’ notice. Thanks very much. Santa Anita Issues My understanding of the CHRB action Thursday night was (i) to reduce the dosage of Lasix that may be administered on race day, and (ii) to table the issue about whip/no whip for future consideration after public comment is taken into account pursuant to applicable regulations, the period for which is 45 days. Today we have FOUR exciting graded stakes races, two of them being Grade I. Nonetheless, Mike Smith does not appear on the card. I am not sure what they have done to the track, but no one told me that Saturday was National Longshot Day. We only had about half the winners: we seem to be suffering scratches more than usual, and six of ten winners paid more than $10 to win (we only had a couple of those). I apologize, strange day…

Rosario/Smith Rosario returns today for the many stakes races on the card. However, this is no longer his “home base.” Despite the plethora of stakes races today, we are Smithless.

LASIX (to be continued)

Clarification of the Nature of the Ultimate Pick of the Day, Penultimate Pick of the Day Ladies and gents, suppose, hypothetically of course, that in a graded stakes race today here at Santa Anita we found Man O War, American Pharoah, Sea Biscuit, Justify, Secretariat, Curlin, Vasilika, City of Light and Fahan Mura in a field of nine. There is no way in that hypothetical race that any of the foregoing iconic equines would ever be the Ultimate Pick of the Day or even the Penultimate Pick of the Day. The point: The Ultimate Pick of the Day may or may not be the best horse racing that day. The Penultimate Pick of the Day may or may not be the second best horse racing that day. The Ultimate Pick of the Day is the horse that is most likely to win the race in which he/she has been entered. The Penultimate Pick of the Day is the second most likely horse to win his/her race. Justify, Secretariat, Curlin, Vasilika, City of Light and Fahan Mura in a field of ______

Post Time today is 1:00 PM PT, 4:00 PM ET… ______

Sunday, March 31, 2019 FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to “predict the future,” because it ain’t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn…so please stick with me if there are a few “speed-bumps” along the way.)

This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a “firm” turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded “fast.” Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my “Handicapping Tips” No. 6, “What If It Rains on Race Day?,” in this regard… californiawinning.com, Graded Selections….as follows…

Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race…I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively…however, as we all know, “a horse is a horse, of course, of course” on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day’s analysis and you will receive the next racing day’s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. ______

ULTIMATE PICK OF THE DAY: Conquest Tsunami (Race 4) PENULTIMATE PICK OF THE DAY: Algorhythmic (Race 8)

Note: for obvious reasons, there are few “rest” or non-rest issues for today’s card…

RACE 1:

A Dime for Me is the narrow ML favorite as she is one of only two entries to have hit the board at race distance “RD”) (see also Meritocracy), she has hit the board in two of four sprints and is trained by one of our best. Meritocracy likewise placed here at RD and has never missed he board in three dirt sprints, look for her to battle. And Counting is new to the main track, but is the sole entry to drop precipitously down from MSW: the filly has lineage which suggests she will adapt to the main track and she could surprise.

RACE 2: THE SENSATIONAL STAR, SIX AND ONE-HALF FURLONGS, TURF COURSE ($100000)

Eddie Haskell looms large as he wins 40% of his grass races, always of the sprint variety, works are strong and he brings the ever-dangerous back to us. The narrow ML favorite is extremely well-rested Pee Wee Reese, who unlike any of the competition has won a graded turf race, a rout here a couple of years ago, in addition he won both efforts at RD on the turf, both wins coming here where he has won an incredible four of five grass races, this looms as a two-horse race to the wire. Minister of Soul wins half of his races (6/12), but those wins came on the main track, nonetheless he does have some favorable turf lineage, and a heck of a lot of speed: check out that bullet workout late last month--- five furlongs at 583.

RACE 3:

Jeweled is one of three entries to have hit the board at RD, and the mare did so in two of three efforts, it’s a short race and the apprentice has a seven pound weight allowance, much like getting a head start in the race. Copper Cowgirl has hit the board in four of five efforts at RD, her works are strong and her rider likewise sports a seven pound weight allowance. Heloise is one of three entries to have posted a win at RD, which came here, clearly her best work has come in the main track sprint, and she will put up a fight.

RACE 4: THE SAN SIMEON, GRADE III, SIX AND ONE-HALF FURLONGS, TURF COURSE ($100000)

Conquest Tsunami, top 2018 earner by a wide margin, is the prohibitive ML favorite, as the venerable gelding joins top trainer with one of the best jockeys in this circuit, not to mention that he comes off a laugher of a turf win here at RD with that rider aboard, he has won three of seven races at RD (three of five here) and has never missed the board at RD. Law Abidin Citizen has three turf victories, and all came at RD, all here of course, his rider knows him well and he is very steady speed-wise. Arms Runner has won a heady three of four races on the grass at RD here, he sports a series of top-drawer works and is trained by one of our best.

Likeable Longshot: La Sardane (ML 8/1) joins top trainer with Rosario, she is one of two entries to have won a graded turf race (see Conquest Tsunami, 2/24/18) and is the sole entry to have won multiple graded turf races, the question is will she go off at or near her ML?

RACE 5:

Surprise Fashion is the sole entry to have posted a win at RD, which came here last time out in an off-turf effort, she hits the board in most of her races and is a significant threat. The ML favorite, Owning, has own three of six main track races, all sprints, and she won here last January, and, most recently placed in a race here, she hit the board in all five dirt sprints and will make a bid. Diamond Blitz gets significant class relief, he hit the board in all three races on the main track, two at sprint distance, she will make her presence known in this bland field.

RACE 6:

At least, eleven of twelve entries have raced on the grass, ten at sprint distances… My Man Chuckles has three turf victories (3/9), all three here at RD, he closes out well and sports a string of strong, though not exceptional, workouts. Blitzkrieg is in the hearts and minds of the odds maker(s)/computer as the ML favorite, as he has won two of four on the grass at RD, both here of course, he has food connections and will make his presence known. Via Ignatia hit the board in seven of ten turf races, usually of the route variety, but he has extremely favorable lineage for the sprint and today, for the first time, Rosario is aboard.

RACE 7:

Only a mere four of twelve entries have race experience…Posterize hit the board in both of his dirt sprints, once at RD here, he looks great in this bland field. Big Barrel is the vulnerable ML favorite, as he has placed in the two dirt sprints in which he retained his rider, works are encouraging and he will vie in this pedestrian field. Summer Games is a first-time starter, one who has a top jockey aboard and shows a string of exceptional works, like, most recently, four furlongs at a bullet 48 flat, six days ago, such a stellar workout so close to race day often portends a great race, as it demonstrates the gelding is in terrific race shape.

Likeable Longshot: Try Ultimate Shilo, ML 20/1, for a few Washingtons: he is a first-time starter with a very good trainer and a rider with a whopping seven- pound weight allowance, his series of workouts is quite excellent as well…dilly dilly…

RACE 8: THE IRISH O’BRIEN. SIX AND ONE-HALF FURLONGS, TURF COURSE ($100000)

S Y Sky is the ML favorite, as the lightly raced mare has won both of her efforts at RD on turf, she is trained by one of our best and has never missed the board in any race, she won’t have a whole lot of competition here…But X S Gold will have a say, as she has turf master Desormeaux aboard, he who propelled her to rout victories in two of her last three races, she has the speed to challenge the favorite, at least for a while. Gypsy Blue won both of her efforts at RD, here of course, she does come off two consecutive wins here at RD, the most recent one, with Rosario aboard.

RACE 9:

Awesome Amanda, the narrow ML favorite, is such in large measure because she has hit the board in all three races on the main track, the most recent two efforts here resulting in a place finish last time out and an on-the board finish previously, she stands out in this bland field. Whata Flirt hits the board in the vast majority of her races on the main track, the filly hit the board in six of her last eight races, on the main track, look for her to battle. Crackling Bread switched to the main track last October, and hit the board in the last six of seven races on the main track, and she hit the board in all three races at RD, she could surprise in this bland field.

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(Pick 6)”… It’s a can’t miss…and the latest one, “What If It Rains on Race Day?” ______