californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE (The Great Race Place) Saturday, May 4, 2019

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KENTUCKY DERBY COMPREHENSIVE GRADED HANDICAP The 145th Kentucky Derby, Saturday, May 4, Post Time 6:50 p.m. EDT One and one-quarter miles on the main track ______

WEATHER FORECAST for Louisville, Kentucky, Saturday, May 4, as of 9 a.m. EDT Thursday, May 2: High of 69 degrees, winds ENE 5-10 m.p.h., chance of rain 100%. ______THE ENTRIES: GENERAL STATISTICS/MATTERS : The horses who have raced here are: , Tax, By My Standards, , Plus Que Parfait, and Game Winner. The entries who have posted a victory here are: War of Will, Improbable and Game Winner (Grade I). The M/L: An unprecedented, incredible seventeen of twenty entries are assigned M/L’s of 10/1 or higher. Obviously, then, we have three putative “favorites”: Improbable, Game Winner, and Roadster---what a coincidence, they are all trained by ! Think about that--- there are seventeen longshots in a twenty-horse race (as presently constituted, let’s wait and see if three are more scratches in the next 48 hours). Race distance: The race is one and one-quarter miles long. Technically speaking, no entry has raced at race distance (“RD”). The Daily Racing Form indicates that both Plus Que Parfait and Gray Magician raced at RD: that is not really true- Plus Que Parfait won the last January, which is officially listed at 1900 meters long, and Gray Magician placed in that race. If my math is correct, that is 1.18 miles, not 1.25. Sorry to be so pedantic, but I have to be truthful. By the way, though no entry has raced at RD much less won at RD, all entries except War of Will, Improbable, Haikal, Code of Honor, Win Win, Game Winner, Spinoff, and Bodexpress (who has never won any race) have won at least one race at one and one-eighth miles (RD less 660 feet). So, I don’t think that RD either helps or hinders any entry in a material way. Post position ramifications: I apologize: I overstated my case in the Kentucky Derby Preview as to post position ramifications. The problem is that the stats I cited, which go back to 1930, suggest that there were always 20 entries in the Derby since 1930. A savvy equine practitioner, Doc A., explained to me that some “ancient” Derbys had less than 20 entries, as few as fifteen even. The fact that 75% of all Derby winners come from posts 1-10 is still relevant however. The point is, most of these horses have never raced with nineteen other horses at their side. My own theory is that it is possible that a horse with a very low post will feel pressured, crushed into the rail when he/she looks to the right and sees and all of those other horses galloping nearby at the start. Similarly, the horse with a high post has probably never seen so many horses to his/her left, and possibly will never gain enough speed to have a healthy start since he/she has to run so much farther on the outside. “Frye’s Derby Post Position Theorem” is supported by the fact that since 1930, post position #5 has had the most wins, ten of them, and post position #10 has had the second highest number of winners, nine. When you factor in post positions #7 and #8, posts #5, #10, #7 (seven wins) and #8 (eight wins), you have those four posts representing 34 wins in 89 races, that’s nearly 40% of the winners. Nuff said. Graded Race Experience Six entries have never even won any graded race: Win Win Win, Country House, Gray Magician, Spinoff, Master Fencer and Bode Express. Four entries have won multiple graded stakes races: Tacitus (2), Vekoma (2), Game Winner (3), and War of Will (2).

Speed (or lack thereof) Amazingly, only has exceeded a “100” Beyer rating in any race. And, he has done so in his two most recent races, most recently at RD less 660 feet at .

Gray Magician, Plus Que Parfait, and Gray Magician have never attained a “90” Beyer. Seven other entries have never attained a “95” Beyer rating. Speaking of speed, let me interject a note about , probably the greatest ever. He still holds the record for best Derby time: 1592. finished last year, albeit in the mud, at 2:041. (sic) won at 2:03…AS good as the latter two horses were, Secretariat would have American Pharoah by about 250 feet!!!

Trainer to Watch: Bob Baffert has three, count ‘em, three contenders in the race. The scratch of Beach, very sad for us and Mr. Mandella, must have been music to Baffert’s ears. Will one of his horses be “the rabbit”? Only time will tell… A Final Word About the Weather As many of you know, I personally beg off wagering on a normal race day if the weather is inclement. The problem is, you will usually find wet weather performance information for only a handful of the entries. That means you are relegated to “flying” blind, perhaps making educated guesses, but you sure are not “handicapping” because in effect you have no past performances for most, or many, of the entries. Look at this field (below). While fifteen of the entries have raced in the wet, and seven have posted victories in the slop, that leaves five entries who may like the wet, not like the wet, or be ambivalent about it. We just don’t know how they will react because we have no past history in the slop. Plus the entries who have never raced in the wet include Vekoma, Roadster, Game Winner, Code of Honor, and Tax, several of whom are on paper serious contenders in the race. A Final Word About the Jockeys I have always theorized that the horse>>> makes the trainer>>> makes the . In other words, let’s face it, a major part of the reason the greatest jockeys are the greatest jockey is the fact that they are riding the best equine athletes!!! The best jockeys in my humble opinion are those who can handle a horse against equal or better competition, by sensing the horse’s “mood” du jour, and providing “encouragement” accordingly. That being said we do have the crème de la crème of jockeys (as well as trainers) here. At least eleven of them are in the top 100 of all time earners, and keep in mind that list is comprised in large measure of those jockeys who are no longer active. So I won’t spend a whole lot of time in my discussions about jockeys, except to mention those whose earnings per start (my favorite jockey criterion) are truly astronomical. A Final Word on Wagering (feel free to discard this) I would not bet the house on this race, for several reasons. First, the weather will add a thick layer of mystery to the race for the reasons aforesaid. Second, there are five entries one of whom will most probably win the race in my view, and then about ten more (“longshots”) who are capable of pulling off a “giant surprise.” As usual, the horses are all pretty damn good for the most part. A loyal subscriber and seasoned handicapper in his own right, Orville S., recently gave me some good advice which I will follow. He postulates that the trifecta is the best value bet in the Kentucky Derby, and the safest. It does seem that the trifecta is almost always comprised of one longshot, and sometimes, two. Better news: the Churchill Downs trifecta is a $.50 minimum bet, allowing for more wagers for those of us on a limited budget. The recent Derby Trifecta payouts ($.50 bet) were: 2018 $70 2017 $4147.00 2016 $43.35 2015 $50.50 2014 $856.15 2013 $1,731.40 These payouts confirm that in three of the six years data, longshots appeared in the trifecta. ______AND THEY’RE OFF!!!!

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Normally, in a typical field, say, of ten horses, I would name three as my top selections, and that would be that. However, in a 20-horse race, loaded with talent, I have chosen to name five horses one of whom I feel very strongly will win the race. Remember, this is a graded handicap, so my top three horses are Improbable, Maximum Security, and Tacitus, in that order. The Top Five, then, with the most likely winner at the top, are the following horses, each one of whom has a good chance to win this race, in order of their perceived superiority: NOTE: IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT THE TRACK IS DRY/FAST, THAT WOULD NOT HAVE CHANGED MY PREDICTIONS AS TO THE FIRST FIVE HORSES, THE FIRST THREE OF WHICH COULD WIN IN ANKLE DEEP MUD ACCOMPANIED BY A HAILSTORM…

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EXCERPT- THIS IS NOT MY TOP PICK…IT IS AN EXAMPLE OF THE DEPTH OF MY ANALYSIS…PLEASE READ ON…

GAME WINNER- 16 Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Joel Rosario ML: 5/1

Number of winners from this post since 1930: 5 Game Winner is now the ML favorite in light of the scratching of Omaha Beach. He gained entry into the Derby by virtue of his win at The Fountain of Youth (Grade II), his sole route victory, and his third place finish at The Florida Derby (Grade I). He is the sole entry to have won three graded races, all at route distances. One of those wins came here, last November in a juvenile stakes race. Only Improbable and War of Will have posted wins here. His Baffert-esque works are strong, including six furlongs at a “bullet” 1:132 at Santa Anita on April Fool’s Day. This horse is truly extraordinary, having won four of six lifetime races (on the main track) and in his two losses, he missed by a nose once, and, in the won by Roadster, he lost by a half- length. With one race exception, Rosario is the only rider he has ever known. And, get this, Rosario’s lifetime earnings per start are over $20,000, putting him in the stratosphere. There may be two reasons that he won’t win the Derby. First, he has never raced in the slop so that could be a big unknown if the current forecast comes to fruition. Second, he has never had such a deep post, with fifteen challengers to his left. That could unnerve him. Or, it could discourage an effort to get near the front where he likes to be. Now he has won twice from the ninth post, but 9/13 for example is a far cry from 16/20. ***** FOR THE COMPLETE EXPERT DERBY ANALYSIS---IT’S ONLY $20--- GO TO: californiawinning.com, “Today’s Full Race Card” and pay there, OR GO TO PayPal.me/SailorBoston if you have a PayPal account…. Thank you!

Flavien Prat It was good to see him pick up a mount in the Kentucky Derby, namely, Country House, trained by William Mott.

New “Comment” Which May Appear on Certain Races “Very closely graded” or VCG If you see that comment, it means that of the three horses I select as potential winners of a given race, I had a hard time distinguishing which of the three is best. The three are like a cement block, unified. The reason this came up was with respect to californiawinning.com’s accurate selection of last Sunday’s Pick 6. I explained that I hit the Pick 6 (and you could have too based on my selections) by utilizing my top two selections in five of the Pick 6 races and all three of my picks in the other race. I explained that I did that because that Race, Race 4, was “very closely graded”--- i.e., I could not really distinguish among the three horses selected as to who was best, second best, and third best. A few of you reported that you just missed the Pick 6 because you had utilized my top two selections for all six races. Those of you indicated that had I advised my subscribers that I viewed the race as “very closely graded” among the three picks, you would have possibly taken a different tack, and included all three horses in your wager as did I, and this hit the Pick 6 like I did. That comment is well taken and I will use VCG in future selections. Thank you for your input.

Mike Smith watch… Mike Smith is quite possibleat Churchill Downs tuning up Omaha Beach. The resurgent Victor Espinoza is working here today.

SPECIAL PROJECTS/PRICING CHANGE Californiawinning.com is THE definitive internationally recognized expert for the handicapping of Southern California , as you know. However, we are available for Special Projects, too. For instance, we will be preparing a full graded handicapping of the Kentucky Derby, for which we charge a mere $20-25 (not sure yet). We had last year’s Derby down cold! At any time, on reasonable notice, we can handicap a day’s race at any U.S. track, We have been charging $50 for a full day’s card, because I will be putting my usual 6-7 hours in, and the report is almost one-off (no one else will be interested in purchasing an analysis for that track). I acknowledge that while from my standpoint the $50 I charge is a “bargain” (I make less than minimum wage in the venture), it may still be deemed prohibitively expensive by the buyer. Therefore, the new price rules are, I will charge $5 per race, minimum three races (minimum charge $15). That is a lot easier on the buyer, and the buyer will select the three races he/she wants analyzed and the track. He/she can select three to seven races at $5 per race: the full card is still $50. This will help if, say, you would like my thoughts on a particular stakes race or two or three at a “foreign” track--- one that is not in the three- track So Cal circuit we deal with. The “notice” rule still applies: you need to ask me if I will have time to do your project, and you still need to give me three days’ notice, please. I hope that this new pricing structure helps you to utilize this service economically. The full card as noted will still be a flat $50.

Thanks for reading this ladies and gents.

Just contact us at [email protected] for a special project.

LASIX (to be continued later)

Clarification of the Nature of the Ultimate Pick of the Day, Penultimate Pick of the Day For new subscribers, ladies and gents, suppose, hypothetically of course, that in a today here at Santa Anita we found Man O War, American Pharoah, Sea Biscuit, Justify, Secretariat, , Vasilika, City of Light and Fahan Mura in a field of nine. There is no way in that hypothetical race that any of the foregoing iconic equines would ever be the Ultimate Pick of the Day or even the Penultimate Pick of the Day. The point: The Ultimate Pick of the Day may or may not be the best that day. The Penultimate Pick of the Day may or may not be the second best horse racing that day. The Ultimate Pick of the Day is the horse that is most likely to win the race in which he/she has been entered. The Penultimate Pick of the Day is the second most likely horse to win his/her race.

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Post Time today is 12:00 PM PT, 3:00 PM ET… ______

Mini Happy New Year Handicapping Tips

*** wring everything you can out of your DRF, Racing Digest, Race Lens etc., look at everything, every nuance, there could be a clue lurking there…don’t be formulistic and rely on multiple angles, not just one… *** don’t be overly concerned about “slow” workout times, as some trainers don’t push it until race time…do pay attention to very recent very fast workouts, they provide a great insight as to the race day condition of the horse… Horsecallany It is said by the “horse whisperers” that horses probably do not recognize their name, as dogs do. However, they can routinely be trained to come when called, and that is likely a product of the fact they do recognize familiar faces and voices. Recent studies also show that horses recognize human emotions by the person’s countenance.

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Saturday, May 4, 2019 Santa Anita Race Course

FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to “predict the future,” because it ain’t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn…so please stick with me if there are a few “speed-bumps” along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a “firm” turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded “fast.” Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my “Handicapping Tips” No. 6, “What If It Rains on Race Day?,” in this regard…

Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race…I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively…however, as we all know, “a horse is a horse, of course, of course” on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day’s analysis and you will receive the next racing day’s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you.

Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h…

______For only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty calendar-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day for a calendar month. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather “elegant” summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders…just look after “Today’s Free Selections” below to see how to order, and thank you…

THE FOLLOWING ARE TODAY’S FREE SELECTIONS : Races 2-4 (see below)

Note- for newcomers: here is the definition of a “Likeable Longshot”: it is a horse whom we do not “expect” to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other “mitigating factors” which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this “longshot” might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even… I am sure you get the idea now…don’t bet “the house”…but it makes an excellent “beer money,” as in Bud Light, bet! Note: Likeable Longshots are not available in this free version of californiawinning.com’s analysis. To view Likeable Longshots please go to californiawinnig.com and click on “Today’s Full Racing Card” and follow the process indicated. You will be glad you did, my subscribers are way ahead on the Likeable Longshots--- we just had a $75 winner recently, $75 for $2!!!

***** ATTENTION: NEW SUBSCRIBERS ARE ELIGIBLE TO GET SIX WEEKS OF COVERAGE FOR $20, INSTEAD OF THE USUAL FOUR, THAT’S EONS CHEAPER THAN YOUR DRF OR RACING DIGEST OR LIKE PUBLICATION! SUBSCRIBE NOW AT “TODAY’S FULL RACE CARD” ON THIS SITE…

ULTIMATE PICK OF THE DAY: (unavailable in free version) PEMULTIMATE PICK OF THE DAY: (unavailable in free version) ***** RACE 2: THE ANGELS FLIGHT, SEVEN FURLONGS, MAIN TRACK ($75000)

No entry has raced at this uncommon RD…Sneaking Out has “only” comfortably won three of four sprints, the most recent, his first win here, in a stakes race at RD less a mere 330 feet, he is the sole entry to have won a stakes race and his connections are world class. Well-rested Miss My Rose comfortably won here in her debut at RD less a furlong, works and connections are strong and he is a clear and present danger. Tiz A Master finds veteran HOF jockey Victor Espinoza aboard, she too has won three of four dirt sprints, all on the main track, and her two wins here (in two tries) include a win at RD last January, she won’t go down without a fight.

RACE 3: THE SENIORITA, GRADE III, TURF COURSE, ONE MILE ($100000)

All but Hostess have raced at RD, and only Lady Prancelot and Maxim Rate posted a win at RD…Maxim Rate, despite a horrific start, missed a win on the grass here by a nose last time out to Hostess in a Grade III race at RD plus 660 feet, and prior to that she won here at RD on the turf, the trainer is top-tier and turf master Desormeaux is in command, so she looms large. Hostess, top 2019 earner by far, is the only entry to have won a graded race, winning the Grade III Providencia here last month at RD plus 660 feet and in the process beating Maxim Rate by a nose as noted, she has a top trainer and is a clear and present danger. Lady Prancealot is a fine Irish lass, born and bred on the lush county green (County Kerry), this is preternaturally suited for turf racing, she was part of the triumvirate in the Providencia, finishing third a nose behind Maxim Rate, she sports an excellent string of recent works and will pressure the rest.

RACE 4:

All six entries have won at RD, but no entry has won more than twice on the main track…Well-rested Roaring Fork benefits from class relief, is the sole entry with multiple wins at RD (2/7), both of which were convincing wins which came here, the rider/trainer duo is very good and he is a force to be reckoned with. Very well-rested Camino de Estrella gets a measure of class relief too, and she has never missed the board at RD, winning once at Los Alamitos, the string of works is encouraging and she will threaten. Desert General benefits from class relief, won here at RD this time last year, invariably is in the hunt at RD, and his string of recent works, including a “bullet” five furlongs @1:012 just a month ago, coupled with her seasoned rider, render him a challenger.

Likeable Longshots: (there are several today, but such are not available in this free version…you can go to “Today’s Full Race Card” on this site and purchase today’s full analysis for a mere $5, less than you pay for your DRF or Racing Form, and they don’t handicap for you…OR you can subscribe for SIXTY (60) calendar days for a mere $20, at the same location on this website…you can also pay at PayPal.me/SailorBoston if you have a PayPal account.) ***** *****

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NOTE: IF THIS IS YOUR FIRST SUCH REQUEST, YOU CAN EMAIL ME AT [email protected], WITH THE CODE “MR ED” AND I WILL SEND YOU TODAY’S FULL ANALYSIS FREE OF CHARGE…THANK YOU… See instructions below on how to buy today’s card, or to subscribe for a mere $20 for thirty days of race analysis…

You can buy today’s full analysis for $5, or, Why not subscribe now, it’s less than $1 per day…far less than what you pay for The DRF or Racing Digest and more informative to boot, since they do not provide a graded handicap… and far less than the touts charged for their card when this track opened on December 25, 1934…So, for Today’s Full Race card for the mere sum of $5, or, better yet, to subscribe for 45 calendar days’ analysis for only $20 (FIRST- TIME SUBSCRIBERS), go to californiawinning.com, click on “Today’s Full Race Card” and pay through your PayPal account (or use a credit card or debit card), OR, if you have a PayPal account, for an easier one-click process go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment…

Today’s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today’s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you.

Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: [email protected] Also, check out my free “Handicapping Tips” at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, “Probabilities” (Pick 6)”… It’s a can’t miss…and the latest one, “What If It Rains on Race Day?”

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