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COVID-19 : What Do We Do Next? Rethinking & Rebuilding Business Models

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COVID-19 : What Do We Do Next? Rethinking & Rebuilding Business Models COVID-19 : What do we do next? Rethinking & Rebuilding Business Models Version 3rd May 2020 It’s a quadruple shock. We cannot predict the eventual impact on Malaysia of a global pandemia coupled with low oil prices, high household debt and low economic density. I urge MDs, CEOs and public sector leaders to use this time to rethink and rebuild your business models. Seize this opportunity to transform your organisations by embracing technologies of the fourth industrial revolution. I also call for more Malaysian entrepreneurs to brainstorm and create more jobs in digital eco- systems. We see opportunities in this crisis. GIRISH RAMACHANDRAN Executive Director 27Group COVID-19 Objectives of this paper The COVID-19 pandemic, since its first reported case in November 2019, has brought unprecedented impact on governments, businesses and societies around the world. As of 3rd May 2020, it has infected more than 3.4 million people worldwide, causing more than 240,000 fatalities.¹ Started-off as a health crisis, it is now turning into a global financial crisis as the various public health measures such as movement control, travel restriction and social distancing to break the infection chain are affecting the continuity of economic activities across all sectors. This document is meant to provide a systematic framework for government, industry groups and companies to examine the impact of COVID-19 in their own environment, and formulate the necessary steps that will help them to navigate through the crisis. 1. World Health Organization (3rd May 2020) 3 Updated as of 3rd May 2020 Executive Summary What is the situation now? • Public healthcare measure such as movement controls have shown improvement on the number of cases and slowly reducing the infection rates in Malaysia • The businesses are suffering from major revenue drop and lacking of cash buffer that can help them to weather the crisis Both the Government & • The reduced household expenditure and shrinking businesses cash flow will create a private sector companies Domino effect that would bring devastating impact and cripple the economy will need a framework for What would be the potential pathways moving forward? strategy development • The extended movement control is giving more pressure to economic activities, and both with sufficient “breadth” government & businesses will need to start thinking about the post-crisis recovery options (coverage of area) • Economic shock is unavoidable, but the future is yet concluded. The government’s policy response to curb the virus & revitalise economy will be instrumental to the recovery path & “depth” (level of • Both government & businesses will need to make difficult decisions to survive in the New practicality) in Normal, a nationwide digital transformation could be the answer in the post-crisis world “chronological order” What should the governments and businesses do now? (time-phased) to navigate • It is imperative to lift the MCO to prevent major business failure, but it has to be done in a through the crisis right way with strict protocol & enforcement for different economic sectors • Businesses will need to be ready for the New Normal by being proactive in scenario planning and recalibrating business model by leveraging on digital technologies • Both government & private companies need to be ready for the continuously changing ecosystem and prepared for rapid adjustment 4 What is the current situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia’s context? Updated as of 3rd May 2020 How is the current global situation? COVID-19 became a global pandemic with most of the countries imposed travel restriction and limited business operations to essential services only Daily no. of confirmed cases Daily no. of recovered & death cases COVID-19 is a (Thousands) (Thousands) respiratory virus 4,000 1,200 spreads primarily through droplets (1st March – 2nd May) 3,500 generated when an infected USA 1,000 person coughs or sneezes. Spain 3,000 There are no specific vaccines or Italy treatments for COVID-19 as of 800 France 2,500 now. Germany 2,000 600 UK 3,481,349 Iran Global Cases 1,500 Turkey 400 Belgium 1,000 Other Countries 244,663 (7%) 200 China Death 500 Recovered Cases Deaths Cases 0 - 1,120,908 (32%) 1-Mar Recovered 15-Apr 30-Apr 16-Mar 31-Mar (Daily data, updated as of 3rd May 2020) 1. Worldometers 6 Updated as of 3rd May 2020 How is the pandemic situation in Malaysia? The growth of cases in Malaysia has seen a reducing trend soon after the Movement Control Order (MCO) was introduced in mid-march, suppressing the spreading of the virus Total Cumulative Confirmed Cases in Malaysia Daily Growth Rate of Cases in Malaysia (number of people) (7-day CAGR, %) MCO Phase 1 MCO Phase 2 MCO Phase 3 7,000 40% (18 Mar – 31 Mar) (1 Apr – 14 Apr) (15 Apr – 28 Apr) 6,000 5,000 30% 4,000 Total Cases Total Death 20% 3,000 Growth Rate (7-day CAGR) 2,000 10% 1,000 - 0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 Number of Days since 100 confirmed cases in Malaysia # of days to double the COVID cases in Malaysia The longer the time required to double the number of case, 4 5 9 13 20 38 66 the slower is the pandemic spreading 15 Mar 22 Mar 29 Mar 5 Apr 12 Apr 19 Apr 26 Apr (Extracted on 3rd May 2020) 1. Wordometers; 2.Our world in data; 3. Qithub; 4. Johns Hopkins CSSE; 5. Outbreak.my 7 Updated as of 3rd May 2020 How is Malaysia responding to the pandemic so far? Following the lockdown in Wuhan, Malaysia has responded quickly enough with the MCO since mid-March, coupled with several economic stimulus packages & recovery plan Timeline of major events in relation to the COVID-19 outbreak & situation in Malaysia Dec 31 Jan 11 Jan 23 Jan 25 Jan 30 Feb 11 Feb 27 First case of China Wuhan, China Malaysia’s Health WHO declares WHO names virus Interim PM Tun M pneumonia detected announced declares Minister confirmed first outbreak a Public SARS-CoVs & the announced RM 20 in Wuhan, China 1st death lockdown case of COVID-19 Health Emergency disease COVID-19 billion Economic Stimulus Package Apr 10 Apr 8 Apr 6 Mar 27 Mar 25 Mar 18 Mar 11 Announcement Wuhan, China Additional Prihatin PM Tan Sri Muhyiddin Announcement on PM Tan Sri Muhyiddin WHO declares on MCO extension lifted the lockdown SME Economic Yassin announced MCO extension to Yassin announced COVID-19 a to Phase 3 (76-day) Stimulus Package Economic Stimulus Phase 2 14-day Movement pandemic (15 Apr – 28 Apr) (RM 10 billion) Package (RM 250 billion) (1 Apr - April 14) Control Order (MCO) (18 Mar – 31 Mar) Apr 21 Apr 24 Apr 25 May 1 The Ministry of Finance (MoF) Malaysia has announced that an U.S. Oil Prices Announcement on MoF announced that PM Tan Sri Muhyiddin Economic Recovery Plan is in the Plunge Into Negative MCO extension to together with EPU, they Yassin announced the Territory, affecting Phase 4 are formulating an decision to reopen the pipeline, targeting to revitalise global sentiment (29 Apr - May 12) Economic Recovery economy under Malaysia’s economy through various Plan for the short, Conditional Movement short, medium & long term plans medium & long term Control Order (CMCO) starting 4th May 2020 (Extracted on 26th April 2020) 1. NewStraitTimes; 2. Treasury.gov.my; 3. New Malaysia Times; 4. New York Times; 5. Channel News Asia 8 What is the current situation of businesses in Malaysia? The low cash buffer of consumers has led to reduced household expenditure & shrinking businesses cash flow which creating a Domino effect that would cripple the economy Cash Buffer of Malaysian Workers by Employment Status Significant drop in household (%) expenditures after MCO is imposed Average Monthly Household Expenditure in Malaysia Self-Employed 43% 28% 18% 5% 3%2% (Before & After MCO imposed, RM/month) Employers 22% 27% 28% 10% 7% 6% Private Employees 27% 31% 25% 8% 5% 4% 55% GLC Staff 14% 25% 28% 12% 11% 10% 6,317 MNC Staff 12% 20% 28% 16% 14% 11% 2,813 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Pre MCO During MCO < 2 weeks 2-4 weeks 1-2 months 3-4 months 5-6 months > 6 months Source: DOSM’s Special Survey on Effects of COVID-19 on Economy & Individual ROUND 1 (N = 168,182) > 50% of Companies 44% of Companies 43% Self-employed ≈ 2.1 Million Surveyed suffer > 50% Surveyed only have personnels only have savings workers have lost revenue drop within the first enough cash buffer for 3 enough for 2 weeks¹ source of income¹ week of MCO (N = 15,627)² months (N = 419)³ (Extracted on 26th April 2020) 1. DOSM; 2. SME Malaysia & Bizsphere & Marketing Group; 3. Survey done by the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers; 4. The Edge Markets; 5. Malay Mail; 6. Recommend.my; 7. The Malaysian Reserve 9 What are the other implications of the pandemic? The income of oil producing countries such as Malaysia will get a direct hit from the reducing oil demand & on-going price war, affecting the government budgeting & planning Government’s oil-related revenue proportionate to oil price movements Daily Brent Oil Futures Price ($US/Barrel) Malaysia Government’s Brent Crude Oil Revenue By Source (RM Billion) Price ($US/Barrel) 160 Oil peaked above $US 100/barrel 300.0 80.0 Non-renenue Receipts & on the back of rapid world’s Revenue from Federal 140 economic growth led by China Oil dropped below $US 70.0 Territories 20/barrel after US crude oil 250.0 Non-Tax Revenue prices turned negative (Others) 120 60.0 200.0 Non-Tax Revenue 100 50.0 (Petronas Dividends) 80 150.0 40.0 Direct Tax - Petroleum 60 30.0 100.0 Direct Taxes Oil crashed as the marker flooded with oil due to the 20.0 40 boom of shale oil in the US 50.0 Indirect Tax 10.0 20 - - Brent Price ($US/Barrel) 0 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Malaysia as a net oil and gas exporting country, is highly vulnerable to If the oil price declines significantly price fluctuations in the global crude oil market.
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