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A Comparative Analysis of Brazil's Foreign Policy in Multilateral R UNIVERSIDADE DE LISBOA INSTITUTO DE CIÊNCIAS SOCIAIS Neither revisionism nor status quo: a comparative analysis of Brazil’s foreign policy in multilateral regimes Felipe Leal Ribeiro de Albuquerque Orientador: Prof. Doutor Andrés Malamud Tese especialmente elaborada para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Ciência Política (especialidade de Relações Internacionais) 2020 UNIVERSIDADE DE LISBOA INSTITUTO DE CIÊNCIAS SOCIAIS Neither revisionism nor status quo: a comparative analysis of Brazil’s foreign policy in multilateral regimes Felipe Leal Ribeiro de Albuquerque Orientador: Prof. Doutor Andrés Malamud Tese especialmente elaborada para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Ciência Política (especialidade de Relações Internacionais) Júri: Presidente: Doutora Ana Margarida de Seabra Nunes de Almeida, Investigadora Coordenadora e Presidente do Conselho Científico do Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa Vogais: - Doutora Miriam Gomes Saraiva, Professora Titular, Departamento de Relações Internacionais da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil; - Professor Gian Luca Gardini, PhD, Professor of International Relations and Latin American Politics, School of Economics, Business and Social Sciences, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen Nuremberg, Alemanha; - Doutor Bruno César dos Santos Cardoso Reis, Professor Auxiliar Convidado, Escola de Sociologia e Políticas Públicas do ISCTE – Instituto Universitário de Lisboa; - Doutor Andrés Malamud, Investigador Principal, Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa, orientador; Esta investigação foi realizada com o apoio institucional do projeto Power and Region in a Multipolar Order (PRIMO), através da concessão de uma bolsa de doutoramento (European Commission’s FP7-PEOPLE-2013-ITN – Marie-Curie Action: “Initial Training Networks” under grant agreement 607133), com a duração de 36 meses. 2020 i CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................................................ iii ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................. vii RESUMO ................................................................................................................. viii LIST OF ACRONYMS .......................................................................................... xvii LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES .................................................................... xxiv INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER I - DEVELOPING POWERS AND GLOBAL ORDER: THEORETICAL INPUTS ...................................................................................... 12 I.1. Theory talks: regime theory and the foundations of the global order ............ 13 I.2. Developing powers and multilateral regimes: setting the issue ..................... 22 I.3. The degree of change: developing powers in multilateral regimes ............... 30 I.4. Final remarks ................................................................................................. 36 CHAPTER II – METHODS, CASE STUDIES AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK ........................................................................................................ 38 II.1. Qualitative methods ...................................................................................... 38 II.1.1. The comparative method .................................................................... 39 II.1.2. Process tracing ..................................................................................... 42 II.1.3. Causal mechanisms, equifinality and counterfactuals ......................... 46 II.1.4. Bridging process tracing with the comparative method ...................... 49 II.2. Analytical framework ................................................................................... 52 II.2.1. Explanatory factors .............................................................................. 53 II.2.2. Causal mechanisms ............................................................................. 61 II.2.3. Outcomes ............................................................................................ 63 II.2.4. Analytical framework .......................................................................... 65 II.3. Selection of cases ......................................................................................... 66 II.4. Final remarks ................................................................................................ 72 CHAPTER III – BRAZIL AND THE CLIMATE CHANGE REGIME ........... 74 III.1. The structure of the climate change regime ................................................ 75 III.2. Brazil’s domestic climate-related assets ..................................................... 81 III.3. Domestic decision-making processes related to climate change ................ 90 III.4. The concentric circles proposal .................................................................. 98 III.5. Concentric circles and explanatory factors ............................................... 103 i III.6. Concentric circles and the degree of change ............................................. 108 III.7. Final remarks ............................................................................................. 113 CHAPTER IV – BRAZIL AND THE PEACE AND SECURITY REGIME .. 117 IV.1. The structure of the peace and security regime ......................................... 118 IV.2. Brazil’s domestic peace and security-related assets ................................. 126 IV.3. Domestic decision-making processes related to peace and security ......... 131 IV.4. The responsibility while protecting .......................................................... 134 IV.4.1. The escalating Libyan crisis ............................................................. 134 IV.4.2. Brazil’s RwP proposal ..................................................................... 141 IV.5. Responsibility while protecting and explanatory factors .......................... 148 IV.6. Responsibility while protecting and the degree of change ....................... 152 IV.7. Final remarks ............................................................................................ 156 CHAPTER V – BRAZIL AND THE FOOD SECURITY REGIME ................ 160 V.1. The structure of the food security regime .................................................. 161 V.2. Brazil’s domestic food security-related assets ........................................... 170 V.3. Domestic decision-making processes related to the right to food .............. 177 V.4. Brazil and the right to food at FAO ............................................................ 182 V.5. The right to food and explanatory factors .................................................. 187 V.6. Brazil’s right to food and the degree of change ......................................... 193 V.7. Final remarks .............................................................................................. 195 CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................... 198 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................... 211 APPENDIX ............................................................................................................. 242 APPENDIX A – LIST OF INTERVIEWS ....................................................... 242 APPENDIX B – SAMPLE INTERVIEW GUIDE ........................................... 247 ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The act of writing is painful. It is only by looking at the blank page that you realize how difficult it is to organize thoughts, insecurities, expectations and dreams into words, sentences, paragraphs and pages. Perhaps that effort is even more daunting in the case of a thesis, as you need to clarify ideas, give meaning to theories, create a sense of logic, simplify complexities. But the act of writing is also joyful, especially when it comes to a Ph.D. You materialize reflections on a caring theme, present your findings, discuss with peers, interview people invested in your topic and reorganize temporal processes. All fuelled by inadequate amounts of coffee and sleep deprivation. As most (all?) Ph.D. candidates, I experienced a mix of these two extremes, always trying to find the right balance between hitting writer’s block and convincing myself I had a great idea. The guidance provided by my supervisor Prof. Andrés Malamud was crucial for making me persevere. Throughout the Ph.D., he gave me unbridled support and orientation. Since he first emailed me, confirming that I was selected for the Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon (ICS-UL) to the last sentence written and the revision of this thesis, he encouraged my ideas and believed in me, sharing his impressions and telling me to endure, always with a friendly and clever advice. Being a fellow Latin American, he always said I should question entrenched views, challenge “official narratives” and bring something “fresh” and provocative into the equation. I tried to do that in this thesis. It would not be possible without his encouragement, assistance and patience. I am truly grateful for that and I will keep his lessons in my academic career. Andrés, muchas gracias por todo. This thesis would also not be possible without the generous PRIMO Marie Curie Initial Training Network’s scholarship, which provided
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