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Velkommen Til 2020-Valget TRUMP FOR FULD SKRUE VELKOMMEN TIL 2020-VALGET Foredrag PwC Regnskabskonference 29. januar 2019 DET NARCISSISTISKE INDSLAG Philip Chr. Ulrich Cand.mag. i Amerikanske Studier Udenrigsredaktør, netmediet Kongressen.com VI HAR FÅET HVAD HAN LOVEDE - Opgør med ”the establishment” - Opgør med internationale institutioner - Skattelettelser - Opgør med ”politisk korrekthed” - Handelskrig - Hårdere immigrationslove - Konservative dommere - Opgør med snyltende allierede - Opgør med Obama Og så ikke helt alligevel… MIDTVEJSVALGET: ET VALG OM TRUMP? Alle 435 pladser i Repræsentanternes Hus på valg 35 af 100 sæder i Senatet er på valg RESULTATET: Demokratisk flertal i Repræsentanternes Hus To års politisk dødvande forude Republikansk flertal i Senatet Midtvejsvalget: Et nederlag for Trump • Største margin nederlag siden 2008 • 2008: • Dårlig økonomi • To krige • Otte års republikansk ledelse i D.C. • 2018: • God økonomi • Mindre krig (i amerikansk bevidsthed i hvert fald) • Mistet fuld kontrol med lovgivende proces • Undersøgelseskommissioner Midtvejsvalget: En sejr for Trump • Fastholder kontrol med Senatet • Delvis kontrol med lovgivende proces • Fuld kontrol over udnævnelser • Ministre • Embedsmænd • Dommere VALGKAMPEN • Government ”shutdown” 2020 ER GÅET • Muren mod Mexico I GANG • Tilbagetrækning fra Syrien • Tilbagetrækning fra Afghanistan diskuteres • Fortsatte angreb på allierede KAOS OG MANGLENDE OPBAKNING BASEN ER VIGTIGST FOR TRUMP • Valgt på en nationalistisk / ”anti-establishment” dagsorden • Dårlige sager for Trump søger mod basen Risikoen for Trump • Handelskrig rammer hans egne vælgere • Ikke få afsat deres varer • Prisen på varer i USA kan stige • Handelsbalance helt forskruet • Government shutdown rammer hans egne vælgere • Nødt til at forblive militært engageret i Mellemøsten • Manglende mur… ”America First” - Præsident Trump - Steve Bannon - Sebastian Gorka - Stephen Miller - Mike Pompeo - Peter Navarro ”De Voksne” ”America First – Light” - James Mattis - Ivanka Trump - John Kelly - Jared Kushner - H.R. McMaster - Nikki Haley - Heather Nauert - Rex Tillerson - Gary Cohn - Kirstjen Nielsen TRUMP-ADMINISTRATIONENS HÅNDTERING AF SITUATIONEN Et fundamentalt opgør i gang om USA’s plads i verden ”America First” ”de voksne” • Stormagter i centrum • Fokus på stormagtskonkurrence • Opgør med multinationale organisationer • Støtte til allierede • USA blevet snydt • Aktivt amerikansk lederskab • Hold op med at være ”verdens • Fremskudt amerikansk tilstedeværelse politimand” • Ønske om øget frihandel • Værdier og menneskerettigheder betyder ikke noget • Bad for business TRUMPS ADMINISTRATIONENS VERDENSBILLEDE EN NY VERDENSORDEN 199119452008 -- 20081991- UNDER OPBYGNING Multipolær verdensorden Verdensordenen 1815-1914 Udfordring og regulering af: - Regler - Normer - Magtstrukturer UDFORDRINGERNE FOR SMÅSTATEN Orientering mod? • USA • Støtte til Trumps Amerika? • NATO • NATO = USA? • EU • Forbehold • Norden • Been there, done that • Storbritannien • Tilbage til NATO/USA sporet TAK FORDISPØRGSMÅL? JEG MÅTTE KOMME PHILIP CHR. ULRICH: [email protected] Velkommen Til Trumps @PC_Ulrich Verden. We’re America, Bitch Find den på saxo.com www.facebook.com/philipulrich.dk/ 179,95 kr..
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