Into the Somali Void: Somalia's Islamists Target Uganda's Peacekeepers
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Al-Qaeda's Keys to Success
DIGITAL-ONLY VIEW Al- Qaeda’s Keys to Success MAJ RYAN CK HESS, USAF ver the past 20 years, al- Qaeda has been the most recognizable and infa- mous terrorist organization on the planet. The group has planned and executed thousands of violent attacks, spurred dozens of offshoot affiliate Oand copycat groups, and even created rival Islamic extremist organizations. De- spite all this, and subsequently spending the past 20 years at war with the world’s most effective militaries, the group continues to carry out its operations. More- over, the success of foreign al- Qaeda affiliates illustrate that the group has become a global threat. Analyzing the tools that the organization has used to succeed will give us a better understanding of how to combat al-Qaeda. Perhaps more impor- tantly, it will also help intelligence agencies recognize what strategies the group will likely employ in the future. There are some who argue that al- Qaeda is dying. In this article, I argue that not only is it far from dead, but that the main factors contributing to al- Qaeda’s continued global success are decentralization, effective narratives and propaganda, and the specific targeting of locations with a preexist- ing history of instability and violence. This article will use three al-Qaeda affiliates and allies—al-Shabaab, Ansar al- Dine (AAD), and al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) — to demon- strate each of the above listed success factors. However, before we can discuss how al- Qaeda has achieved their success, we must first define success. If success is to be defined as the completion of each organization’s stated goals, none of them have yet succeeded. -
Al Shabaab's American Recruits
Al Shabaab’s American Recruits Updated: February, 2015 A wave of Americans traveling to Somalia to fight with Al Shabaab, an Al Qaeda-linked terrorist group, was described by the FBI as one of the "highest priorities in anti-terrorism." Americans began traveling to Somalia to join Al Shabaab in 2007, around the time the group stepped up its insurgency against Somalia's transitional government and its Ethiopian supporters, who have since withdrawn. At least 50 U.S. citizens and permanent residents are believed to have joined or attempted to join or aid the group since that time. The number of Americans joining Al Shabaab began to decline in 2012, and by 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) replaced Al Shabaab as the terrorist group of choice for U.S. recruits. However, there continue to be new cases of Americans attempting to join or aid Al Shabaab. These Americans have received weapons training alongside recruits from other countries, including Britain, Australia, Sweden and Canada, and have used the training to fight against Ethiopian forces, African Union troops and the internationally-supported Transitional Federal Government in Somalia, according to court documents. Most of the American men training with Al Shabaab are believed to have been radicalized in the U.S., especially in Minneapolis, according to U.S. officials. The FBI alleges that these young men have been recruited by Al Shabaab both on the Internet and in person. One such recruit from Minneapolis, 22-year-old Abidsalan Hussein Ali, was one of two suicide bombers who attacked African Union troops on October 29, 2011. -
The Kismayo Bubble - Justice and Security in Jubbaland
CONFLICT RESEARCH PROGRAMME Research at LSE Conflict Research Programme Research Memo 26 March 2021 The Kismayo Bubble - Justice and Security in Jubbaland Nisar Majid and Khalif Abdirahman Overview The absence of a credible and functional government, in Somalia, since the late 1980s has been felt particularly strongly in the arena of the rule of law. Under President Siad Barre, the judicial system was resented for being corrupt, politically manipulated and for rejecting Islamic precepts, and many welcomed its demise. It was perhaps inevitable that in the absence of a system of state courts that Islamic law and courts would emerge. As Muslims, Somalis were able to call upon a well-formed body of jurisprudence and practice that enjoyed social legitimacy and historically validated practices, to establish courts. Islamic law has a particular advantage in this regard in that it encompasses a penal code, a civil code, and commercial and tax codes. All of these are essential for the conduct of everyday life. Recent analyses of the justice and security sector have highlighted its politicisation and, particularly in Mogadishu, a political economy centred around clan-based mobilization and conflict, ideological divisions between supporters of different versions of Islamic and secular law as well as rent seeking behaviour. At a practical level, although some significant developments are noticeable, government courts remain subject to high levels of corruption and manipulation, are slow, limited by poor security and a lack of enforcement capacity. The persistence of Al Shabaab as a credible actor in the provision of justice sits in stark contrast to that of the Government. -
The Security Bazaar Aisha Ahmad Business Interests and Islamist Power in Civil War Somalia
The Security Bazaar The Security Bazaar Aisha Ahmad Business Interests and Islamist Power in Civil War Somalia Many intractable civil wars take place in countries with large Muslim populations.1 In these pro- tracted conºicts, Islamists are often just one of many actors ªghting in a com- plex landscape of ethnic, tribal, and political violence. Yet, certain Islamist groups compete exceptionally well in these conºicts. Why do Islamists some- times gain power out of civil war stalemates? Although much of the existing research points to either ethnic or religious motivations, I argue that there are also hard economic reasons behind the rise of Islamist power.2 In this article, I offer a micro-political economy model of Islamist success in civil war that highlights the role of an important, but often-overlooked, class: the local busi- ness community. The convergence of business and Islamist interests is relevant across a wide range of cases of contemporary civil war. In present-day Syria and Iraq, jihadi groups have built strong ties to smuggling and criminal networks to fund their Aisha Ahmad is Assistant Professor at the University of Toronto and a former fellow of the International Se- curity Program at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University. The author is especially grateful to outstanding colleagues in Kenya and Somalia, including Jabril Abdulle, Sahal Abdulle, Dr. Ibrahim Farah, Dr. Yahya Amir Ibrahim, and Dr. Deqo Mohamed. The author also thanks Theodore McLauchlan, Stephen Saideman, Stuart Soroka, and the anonymous reviewers for comments on earlier drafts, as well seminar and workshop participants at the Belfer Center and McGill University who provided helpful feedback. -
Thank You. I Want to Thank Michael for His Opening Remarks, and Michael and Steve for Hosting Me Here Today
“The United States - Africa Partnership: The Last Four Years and Beyond” Assistant Secretary Carson The Wilson Center, Washington DC As Prepared Version Thank you. I want to thank Michael for his opening remarks, and Michael and Steve for hosting me here today. I also want to thank all of the distinguished guests in the audience, including members of the diplomatic corps and colleagues from the think tank community. It is an honor to speak to such a distinguished group of leaders who, like me, are so committed to Africa. Let me also thank my wife, Anne. She and I have spent most of our lives working on Africa, and nothing that I have accomplished would have been possible without her advice, partnership, and support. My interest in Africa started in the mid-1960s when I served as a Peace Corps volunteer in Tanzania. The 1960s was a time of great promise for Africa. As newly independent nations struggled to face what many regarded as the insurmountable challenges of democracy, development, and economic growth, newly independent people looked forward to embracing an era of opportunity and optimism. This promise also inspired me to enter the Foreign Service. After more than forty years of experience in Africa, three Ambassadorships, and now four years as Assistant Secretary for African Affairs, I have experienced first- hand Africa’s triumphs, tragedies, and progress. And despite Africa's -2- uneven progress, I remain deeply optimistic about Africa’s future. This optimism is grounded in expanding democracy, improved security, rapid economic growth, and greater opportunities for Africa’s people. -
Somalia Terror Threat
THECHRISTOPHER TERROR February 12, THREAT FROM THE TERROR THREAT FROM SOMALIA THE INTERNATIONALIZATION OF AL SHABAAB CHRISTOPHER HARNISCH APPENDICES AND MAPS BY KATHERINE ZIMMERMAN FEBRUARY 12, 2010 A REPORT BY THE CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT OF THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE THE TERROR THREAT FROM SOMALIA CHRISTOPHER HARNISCH February 12, 2010 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 IMPORTANT GROUPS AND ORGANIZATIONS IN SOMALIA 3 NOTABLE INDIVIDUALS 4 INTRODUCTION 8 ORIGINS OF AL SHABAAB 10 GAINING CONTROL, GOVERNING, AND MAINTAINING CONTROL 14 AL SHABAAB’S RELATIONSHIP WITH AL QAEDA, THE GLOBAL JIHAD MOVEMENT, AND ITS GLOBAL IDEOLOGY 19 INTERNATIONAL RECRUITING AND ITS IMPACT 29 AL SHABAAB’S INTERNATIONAL THREATS 33 THREAT ASSESSMENT AND CONCLUSION 35 APPENDIX A: TIMELINE OF MAJOR SECURITY EVENTS IN SOMALIA 37 APPENDIX B: MAJOR SUICIDE ATTACKS AND ASSASSINATIONS CLAIMED BY OR ATTRIBUTED TO AL SHABAAB 47 NOTES 51 Maps MAP OF THE HORN OF AFRICA AND MIDDLE EAST 5 POLITICAL MAP OF SOMALIA 6 MAP OF ISLAMIST-CONTROLLED AND INFLUENCED AREAS IN SOMALIA 7 www.criticalthreats.org THE TERROR THREAT FROM SOMALIA CHRISTOPHER HARNISCH February 12, 2010 Executive Summary hree hundred people nearly died in the skies of and assassinations. Al Shabaab’s primary objectives at TMichigan on Christmas Day, 2009 when a Niger- the time of the Ethiopian invasion appeared to be ian terrorist attempted to blow up a plane destined geographically limited to Somalia, and perhaps the for Detroit. The terrorist was an operative of an al Horn of Africa. The group’s rhetoric and behavior, Qaeda franchise based in Yemen called al Qaeda in however, have shifted over the past two years reflect- the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). -
Somalia: Understanding Al-Shabaab
Institute for Security Studies Situation Report Date issued: 3 June 2009 Author: Paula Cristina Roque1 Distribution: General Contact: [email protected] Somalia: Understanding Al-Shabaab On 8 May 2009, Al-Shabaab reinforced by a faction of Hizbul Islam and former Summary Islamic Courts Union’s (ICU) leader Sheikh Aweys began what they claimed was a final assault on the capital Mogadishu in an attempt to destroy President Sheikh Sharif’s fragile National Unity Government. A wave of targeted assassinations of ICU officials and Al-Shabaab commanders in mid-April onwards,2 the reshuffling of military and political alliances among Islamist factions and inflammatory rhetoric that has led to a polarization of political positions has all but eliminated prospects for reconciliation between the government and the opposition. At the time of writing the government is managing to keep hold of southern Mogadishu. Nevertheless Al-Shabaab continues to gain ground in central Somalia and is positioning itself for what it hopes will be a decisive military victory. This report briefly examines the nature of Al-Shabaab’s ideological stance, their political ambitions and why this movement constitutes the gravest threat to the survival of Sheikh Sharif’s government and the Djibouti peace process that gave it birth. Introduction Al-Shabaab Al-Mujahidin (The Youth) is today the strongest, best organised, financed and armed military group and controls the largest stretch of territory in southern Somalia. Ahmed Abdi Godane (aka Sheikh Abu Zubeyr)3 leads the movement, deemed the Emir of the jihadist organisation, and is assisted by a ten-member council (Shura). -
Al-Shabaab Is a Movement That Merged Four Somali Groups and Has Been Supported from Its Early Days by Foreign Islamists, Including Those Linked to Al-Qâ’Idah
THE RISE OF A JIHADI MOVEMENT IN A COUNTRY AT WAR HARAKAT AL -SHABAAB AL MUJAHEDDIN IN SOMALIA Roland Marchal Senior Research Fellow at CNRS SciencesPo Paris March 2011 This report is independent and does not represent the views of Her Majesty’s Government CONTENT Content Executive Summary Chapter I: Historical Background to the Development of al-Shabaab 1. A political history 1.1. Learning from failures? The radicalisation of the Somali Islamist movement 1.2. The experiments of the Islamic Courts 1.3. The emergence of al-Shabaab 2. Getting organized 2.1. The Supreme Council 2.2. The ministries or Maktabs 3. Conclusion Chapter II: The confrontation with other Islamic Trends 1. The Salafi divide 2. Al-I’tisaam, Muqawama and the Salafi Trend 3. The merging with Hisbul Islaam 4. The collusion with Takfiir wa Hijra 5. An apolitical Jihad? 6. Conclusion Chapter III: Citizens of Jihad. Al-Shabaab Recruitment 1. Joining al-Shabaab 1.1. Coerced recruitments 1.2. Economic incentives 1.3. Born again Jihadists 2 1.4. Recruitment of diaspora and East African radicalized Muslims 1.5. Challenging generational privileges 2. Short notes on the media policy 3. Recruitment among political “minorities” 4. Conclusion Chapter IV: Al-Shabaab Military Tactics 1. The modernisation of war and the globalisation of suicide bombers 2. Organizing the coexistence of foreign and local fighters 3. Military misadventures 4. Conclusion Chapter V: Funding an apparatus and ruling a population 1. Getting money for al-Shabaab 1.1. Collecting money outside the country 1.2. Getting funding from Somalia: maximisation of the protection economy 2. -
Situation Report
Institute for Security Studies Situation Report Date issued: 3 June 2009 Author: Paula Cristina Roque1 Distribution: General Contact: [email protected] Somalia: Understanding Al-Shabaab On 8 May 2009, Al-Shabaab reinforced by a faction of Hizbul Islam and former Summary Islamic Courts Union’s (ICU) leader Sheikh Aweys began what they claimed was a final assault on the capital Mogadishu in an attempt to destroy President Sheikh Sharif’s fragile National Unity Government. A wave of targeted assassinations of ICU officials and Al-Shabaab commanders in mid-April onwards,2 the reshuffling of military and political alliances among Islamist factions and inflammatory rhetoric that has led to a polarization of political positions has all but eliminated prospects for reconciliation between the government and the opposition. At the time of writing the government is managing to keep hold of southern Mogadishu. Nevertheless Al-Shabaab continues to gain ground in central Somalia and is positioning itself for what it hopes will be a decisive military victory. This report briefly examines the nature of Al-Shabaab’s ideological stance, their political ambitions and why this movement constitutes the gravest threat to the survival of Sheikh Sharif’s government and the Djibouti peace process that gave it birth. Introduction Al-Shabaab Al-Mujahidin (The Youth) is today the strongest, best organised, financed and armed military group and controls the largest stretch of territory in southern Somalia. Ahmed Abdi Godane (aka Sheikh Abu Zubeyr)3 leads the movement, deemed the Emir of the jihadist organisation, and is assisted by a ten-member council (Shura). -
Understanding US Policy in Somalia Current Challenges and Future Options Contents
Research Paper Paul D. Williams Africa Programme | July 2020 Understanding US Policy in Somalia Current Challenges and Future Options Contents Summary 2 1 Introduction 3 2 What Is the US Mission in Somalia? 7 3 How Is the US Implementing Its Mission in Somalia? 10 4 Is US Policy Working in Somalia? 15 5 What Future for US Engagement in Somalia? 21 About the Author 24 Acknowledgments 24 1 | Chatham House Understanding US Policy in Somalia Summary • The US has real but limited national security interests in stabilizing Somalia. Since 2006, Washington’s principal focus with regard to Somalia has been on reducing the threat posed by al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda-affiliated Islamist insurgent group seeking to overthrow the federal government. • Successive US administrations have used military and political means to achieve this objective. Militarily, the US has provided training, equipment and funds to an African Union operation, lent bilateral support to Somalia’s neighbours, helped build elements of the reconstituted Somali National Army (SNA), and conducted military operations, most frequently in the form of airstrikes. Politically, Washington has tried to enable the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) to provide its own security, while implementing diplomatic, humanitarian and development efforts in parallel. • Most US resources have gone into its military efforts, but these have delivered only operational and tactical successes without altering the strategic terrain. The war against al-Shabaab has become a war of attrition. Effectively at a stalemate since at least 2016, neither side is likely to achieve a decisive military victory. • Instead of intensifying airstrikes or simply disengaging, the US will need to put its diplomatic weight into securing two linked negotiated settlements in Somalia. -
The Somali Shelter / NFI Cluster
The Somali Shelter / NFI Cluster Reviews of coordination and response Combined report April 2015 Disclaimer The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of UNHCR. Responsibility for the opinions expressed in this report rests solely with the authors. Publication of this document does not imply endorsement by UNHCR of the opinions expressed. Somalia Shelter / NFI Cluster 2015 2 Contents Abbreviations and acronyms 4 Acknowledgements 5 Executive summary 6 Recommendations 10 1 Introduction 1.1 Evaluation purpose, scope and clients 13 2 Methodology 2.1 Evaluation methodology 14 2.2 Constraints 15 3 Background and context 3.1 Context of the humanitarian response in Somalia 17 3.2 Shelter Cluster deployment 21 4 Findings 4.1 Leadership 23 4.2 Cluster personnel 24 4.3 Supporting shelter service delivery 26 Case study: The electronic cluster (1) 32 4.4 Informing strategic decision-making for the humanitarian response and cluster strategy and planning 34 Case study: Emergency Shelter, Mogadishu (short version) 35 Case study: Transitional shelter, Bosaso (short version) 40 Case study: Permanent Shelter, Galkayo (short version) 42 Case study: The electronic cluster (2) 45 4.5 Monitoring and reporting on implementation of Shelter 49 4.6 Advocacy 50 4.7 Accountability to affected persons 51 4.8 Contingency planning, preparedness and capacity-building 52 5 Conclusions 54 Annex 1 Timeline 56 Annex 2 Natural disasters in Somalia 2006-2014 58 Annex 3 Informants (coordination review) 61 Annex 4 Bibliography 63 Annex -
Inside Kenyaʼs Silent Push As Jubaland All Set for Elections
Home / Kenya / Nairobi Inside Kenyaʼs silent push as Jubaland all set for elections Biketi Kikechi 18th Aug 2019 000000 GMT +0300 JUbaland President Ahmed Islam Mohammed Madobe. [File, Standard] The region of Jubaland in neighbouring Somalia will tomorrow elect a new president as the Kenya government covertly intensifies its support for incumbent Ahmed Islam Mohammed Madobe, who has ruled the region over the last eight years. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has engaged in a behind the scenes diplomatic push for the incumbent to retain his position because of security concerns and emerging regional interests. So much is at stake because apart from Kenya, the election is also of great concern to the US, the European Union, the divided Gulf states, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia itself. Whereas Kenya is for a strong regional government especially in Jubaland, the Somalia government with the support of Ethiopia and Eritrea, the so called Cushitic axis, wants a central government, a position that has created animosity between Mogadishu and Nairobi. SEE ALSO :Kenya shuts border with Somalia in Lamu Coupled with the maritime dispute between the two countries that will shortly be decided by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the stakes in the outcome of the elections become exceedingly high. “There is nothing ideological that ties Kenya to Madobe, except the fact that he is the best person to guarantee security which is in our interest. It is about the stability of the region, prosperity and security,” says Peter Kagwanja of the University of Nairobi. The situation is so dicey that the electoral commission has had to postpone the elections twice in as many weeks from the earlier scheduled 24th August, to 21st and now tomorrow 19th of August.