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Zee Entertainment Rating: Buy

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Zee Entertainment Rating: Buy Media India I Equities Company Update Change in Estimates Target Reco 13 October 2018 Zee Entertainment Rating: Buy Target Price: Rs220 Cautiously optimistic; maintaining a Buy Share Price: Rs186 Key data Z IN / ZEE.BO In the last 12-15 months, on concerns—promoter group (pledged 52-week high / low Rs364 / 114 shares), related-party loans/corporate guarantees given on behalf of group companies and balance sheet (rising inventory/receivables), Sensex / Nifty 40183 / 11835 3-m average volume $106.6m Zee’s multiples have been depressed. Though we believe that some issues such as related-party concerns persist, we reiterate that revenue Market cap Rs198bn / $2700.2m Shares outstanding 961m and EBITDA have bottomed out in Q1 FY21 and should improve from now. Also, recent board-member changes, better disclosures (quarterly balance sheets, Zee5 figures, etc.) and lower receivables/inventory (as indicated by management) should ease such concerns. We are cautiously optimistic and maintain our Buy, with an unchanged target Shareholding pattern (%) Jun'20 Mar'20 Dec'19 of Rs220 (valuing Zee at 10x FY22e EBITDA). Promoters 4.8 4.8 4.9 - of which, Pledged 20.9 20.9 18.5 Key FY20 annual report highlights. 1) Investment in movie satellite rights Free float 95.2 95.2 95.1 rose, increasing inventory by Rs14.83bn to Rs53.48bn (inventory days - Foreign institutions 67.3 67.3 67.4 lengthened by 86 days to 261); 2) Trade receivables rose Rs289m in FY20 to - Domestic institutions 3.8 3.8 5.0 - Public 24.1 24.1 22.7 Rs20.85bn (receivables days lengthened by 10 to 94); 3) The company had trade receivables of Rs8.15bn from two strategic customers (Dish TV and Siti Networks), including amounts long overdue; 4) After the stake sale, the promoters’ stake has shrunk to 4.77% (~16.4% pledged) from 38.2% in FY19; 5) The company did not disclose subscription income from Dish TV Relative price performance as a related party (Rs4.84bn in FY19). Our estimates suggest this should be Rs5bn+ in FY20 (~20% of domestic subscription income), 6) An accelerated content amortisation charge of Rs2.6bn. Also provision of Rs3.4bn, including Rs1.2bn from a related-party distributor due to Covid-19. ` Q2 FY21 results preview. We expect revenue to drop 18.8% y/y to Rs17.23bn due to a 30% y/y fall in domestic advertising revenues and flat y/y growth in domestic subscription revenues (high base). We expect the EBITDA margin to contract 1,070bps y/y to 22% (though q/q up 520bps). Retaining a Buy. We now value Zee at 10x FY22e EBITDA and retain our Source: Bloomberg Buy rating, and target price of Rs220. Risk: Any slippage in content ratings. Key financials (YE Mar) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21e FY22e Sales (` m) 66,857 79,339 81,299 65,135 75,479 Net profit (` m) 14,778 15,672 5,247 9,130 12,407 EPS (`) 14.0 16.3 5.5 9.5 12.9 PE (x) 11.3 10.7 31.8 18.3 13.5 EV / EBITDA (x) 7.3 5.9 9.3 10.1 7.6 Shobit Singhal PBV (x) 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 Research Analyst RoE (%) 20.7 19.0 5.7 9.5 12.0 RoCE (%) 13.5 15.5 7.4 8.6 11.2 Dividend yield (%) 1.9 2.3 0.2 1.2 1.6 Net debt / equity (x) -0.2 -0.1 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures and analyst certifications are present in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India Equities 13 October 2018 Zee Entertainment – Cautiously optimistic; maintaining a Buy Quick Glance – Financials and Valuations Fig 1 – Income statement (Rs m) Fig 2 – Balance sheet (Rs m) Year-end: Mar FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21e FY22e Year-end: Mar FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21e FY22e Net revenues 66,856.8 79,339.3 81,299.2 65,134.6 75,479.0 Share capital 961 961 961 961 961 Growth (%) 4 19 2 -20 16 Net worth 75,617 89,239 93,439 99,163 1,07,416 Ad revenue % 62.9 63.5 57.6 49.0 51.9 Total debt 15,245 11,114 5,950 4,950 3,950 Direct costs 31,932.0 38,007.4 46,090.1 35,172.7 40,003.9 Minority interest 142 143 110 110 110 Gross profit 34,924.8 41,331.9 35,209.1 29,961.9 35,475.1 DTL / (Assets) - - -2,742 -2,742 -2,742 Gross margins % 52.2 52.1 43.3 46.0 47.0 Capital employed 91,004 1,00,496 96,757 1,01,481 1,08,734 SG&A 14,164 15,693 18,863 14,981 15,473 Net tangible assets 6,005 5,959 5,898 5,349 4,716 EBITDA 20,761 25,639 16,347 14,981 20,002 Net intangible assets 1,734 1,383 1,372 1,387 1,404 EBITDA margins (%) 31.1 32.3 20.1 23.0 26.5 Goodwill 5,467 5,252 4,070 4,070 4,070 - Depreciation 1,821 2,347 2,706 3,110 3,600 CWIP (tang. & intang.) 920 1,561 832 832 832 Other income 4,335 2,551 240 1,350 1,200 Investments (strategic) 3,148 2,740 1,274 1,274 1,274 Interest expenses 1,448 1,304 1,449 1,015 1,015 Investments (financial) 13,695 8,576 2,770 2,770 2,770 PBT 23,175 24,320 9,588 12,206 16,587 Current assets (ex cash) 64,210 91,641 97,435 94,701 97,709 Effective tax rate (%) 36.3 35.7 45.0 25.2 25.2 Cash 16,117 12,218 7,345 9,582 16,355 + Associates / (minorities) 12 24 -24 - - Current liabilities 20,293 28,835 24,238 18,484 20,396 Net income 14,778 15,672 5,247 9,130 12,407 Working capital 43,918 62,806 73,197 76,217 77,313 WANS 960 960 960 960 960 Capital deployed 91,004 1,00,497 96,758 1,01,481 1,08,735 FDEPS (Rs / sh) 14.0 16.3 5.5 9.5 12.9 Contingent liabilities 6,969 5,514 3,551 - - Fig 3 – Cash-flow statement (Rs m) Fig 4 – Ratio analysis Year-end: Mar FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21e FY22e Year-end: Mar FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21e FY22e PBT 23,175 24,320 9,588 12,206 16,587 P/E (x) 11.3 10.7 31.8 18.3 13.5 + Non-cash items -785 3,481 12,783 1,760 2,400 EV / EBITDA (x) 7.3 5.9 9.3 10.1 7.6 Oper. prof. before WC 22,390 27,802 22,371 13,966 18,987 EV / sales (x) 2.0 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.7 - Incr. / (decr.) in WC -8,551 -17,151 -16,758 -3,021 -1,096 P/B (x) 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 Others incl. taxes -8,295 -9,299 -3,114 -3,076 -4,180 RoE (%) 20.7 19.0 5.7 9.5 12.0 Operating cash-flow 5,544 1,352 2,499 7,870 13,711 RoCE (%) - after tax 13.5 15.5 7.4 8.6 11.2 - Capex (tang. + intang.) 3,191 2,823 1,818 3,257 3,774 RoIC (%) - after tax 21.8 20.9 8.7 9.6 13.1 Free cash-flow 2,353 -1,471 681 4,613 9,937 DPS (` / sh) 2.9 3.5 0.3 1.8 2.5 Acquisitions -2,015 - - - - Dividend yield (%) 1.9 2.3 0.2 1.2 1.6 - Div.(incl. buyback & taxes) 3,834 4,734 5,227 3,406 4,154 Dividend payout (%) - incl. DDT 20.7 20.7 19.0 19.0 19.0 + Equity raised - - - - - Net debt / equity (x) -0.2 -0.1 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 + Debt raised -6,967 -4,876 -5,326 -1,000 -1,000 Receivables (days) 84 84 94 130 100 - Fin investments 2,051 -19,793 -13,734 220 220 Inventory (days) 131 175 267 290 267 - Misc. (CFI + CFF) -2,498 12,610 8,735 21,728 -2,209 Payables (days) 91 101 94 75 75 Net cash-flow -10,016 -3,898 -4,873 2,237 6,772 CFO : PAT % 37.5 8.6 47.4 86.2 110.5 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 5 – Price movement Fig 6 – Quarterly financial performance (Rs) (`m) 700 24,000 Z 600 20,000 500 16,000 12,000 400 21,668 21,221 21,221 20,487 20,487 20,193 20,193 20,081 20,081 19,759 19,759 8,000 19,511 300 17,720 4,000 13,120 200 5,657 5,657 6,757 7,543 5,683 6,598 6,930 5,658 2,199 0 100 (2,839) -4,000 0 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 Jul-15 Jan-19 Jan-12 Jun-18 Jun-11 Oct-20 Oct-13 Apr-17 Apr-10 Feb-16 Sep-16 Dec-14 Aug-19 Aug-12 Nov-17 Nov-10 Mar-20 Mar-13 May-14 Revenue EBITDA Source: Bloomberg Source: Company Anand Rathi Research 2 13 October 2018 Zee Entertainment – Cautiously optimistic; maintaining a Buy Annual report summary (five years) Fig 7 – Annual report summary of the last five years FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Revenues (Rs m) 58,125 64,342 66,857 79,339 81,299 Growth % 19.0 10.7 3.9 18.7 2.5 Advertising 33,652 36,735 42,048 50,367 46,812 Revenue contribution % 57.9 57.1 62.9 63.5 57.6 Y/Y growth % 26.5 9.2 14.5 19.8 -7.1 Subscriptions 20,579 22,629 20,287 23,106 28,873 Revenue contribution % 35.4 35.2 30.3 29.1 35.5 Y/Y growth % 14.7 10.0 -10.3 13.9 25.0 Others 3,894 4,978 4,522 5,867 5,614 Revenue contribution % 6.7 7.7 6.8 7.4 6.9 Y/Y growth % -9.4 27.8 -9.2 29.7 -4.3 PAT (incl.
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