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Wharf Holdings (4 Construction & real estate / Hong Kong 30 May 2011 Wharf Holdings Target price: HK$67.80 → HK$67.80 Up/downside: +23.2% 4 HK | WARFY US Share price (27 May): HK$55.05 Beyond an asset play – structural rerating under way? • We regard Wharf as an undervalued asset play • Has the potential to be transformed into a value-creator in the property space over the medium term • Share price provides good value How do we justify our view? We believe this creates an term news flow and the recent opportunity for investors, and share-price performance. believe there are five areas where it is still undervalued: 1) its proven Forecast revisions (%) expertise in retail-property Year to 31 Dec 11E 12E 13E Jonas Kan, CFA management, 2) the extension of its Revenue change 0.0 0.0 0.0 (852) 2848 4439 Net-profit change 0.0 0.0 0.0 [email protected] retail-management franchise to EPS change 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mainland China, 3) a gradual take- Source: Daiwa forecasts off in its China property businesses, What's new 4) its strong position in the Hong Share price performance We have visited Wharf’s major Kong office and luxury property projects in various Chinese cities. segments, and 5) hidden value in the group companies. What's the impact Has all the ingredients to become a We also believe the market has major player in Hong Kong and under-appreciated Wharf’s China 12-month share-price performance China. We believe Wharf has settled businesses, which show promise. In Relative to Hang Seng Index any case, we think the company’s on a strategy of focusing on the property sectors in Hong Kong and new investments will be backed by 12-month range 36.02-60.17 China, which we think is the right its strong assets in Hong Kong. Market cap (US$bn) 21.43 way forward for the company. Average daily turnover (US$m) 35.10 Indeed, in terms of asset backing, What we recommend Shares outstanding (m) 3,029 financial strength, and retail- We think Wharf is on track to Major shareholder Wheelock and Company (50.0%) management expertise, it has the all undergo a solid structural re-rating. ingredients to develop into an even We therefore reiterate our Buy (1) Financial summary (HK$) stronger property play in the Hong rating and six-month target price of Year to 31 Dec 11E 12E 13E Kong and China market, in our view. HK$67.80. We believe there is still Revenue (m) 23,157 25,604 29,672 Operating profit (m) 11,465 13,216 15,093 further upside for the share price over the medium term if the market Net profit (m) 8,610 9,630 11,110 Still undervalued, in our opinion. Core EPS 2.895 3.179 3.668 While the stock has been re-rated to recognises the five areas in which we believe it is undervalued. EPS change (%) 0.9 9.8 15.4 some extent over recent years, its Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 3.4 (0.9) (0.6) NAV valuation still lags behind that PER (x) 19.0 17.3 15.0 How we differ of its major peers, and what it Dividend yield (%) 1.9 2.0 2.2 commanded pre-1997. We think the We focus on the broader picture of DPS 1.050 1.100 1.200 market is still not yet convinced Wharf’s development – its strong PBR (x) 1.0 1.0 0.9 about its transformation. retail-property-management ROE (%) 5.2 5.6 6.2 credentials and its China Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts investments – rather than only near- Important disclosures, including any required research certifications, are provided on the last two pages of this report. Construction & real estate / Hong Kong 4 HK | WARFY US 30 May 2011 Table of contents Beyond an asset play – structural rerating under way? ..................................................................6 Waiting for its time to shine .........................................................................................................6 Early 1990s – the first attempt at building a major business ..................................................6 Mid-2000s – second attempt ................................................................................................... 7 Proven strong expertise in retail-property management.............................................................8 Extension of retail property franchise into China...................................................................... 10 The re-launch of Chongqing Times Square likely to be the beginning ................................. 10 The opening of the Chengdu IFC by 2013 could help to bring an end to the controversy over Wharf’s China investment .......................................................................................................11 China businesses take off............................................................................................................ 13 Hong Kong office and residential-property assets.................................................................... 15 Hidden value in group companies.............................................................................................. 15 Valuations: still room for a further re-rating ............................................................................. 16 Appendix I: Harbour City and Times Square ........................................................................... 19 Appendix II: Wharf’s major projects in China...........................................................................23 Appendix III: Wharf’s various investment properties in China ................................................38 Appendix IV: Annual retail sales sensitivity analysis ................................................................40 - 2 - Construction & real estate / Hong Kong 4 HK | WARFY US 30 May 2011 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Earnings revisions Wharf: retail sales growth for Harbour City and Times Square Growth outlook Positive rental reversions in Hong Kong office (HK$bn) properties, increasing profit from China property sales, 25 the resumption of profit from Hong Kong property 23.1% sales, the revamp and sustained expansion of the rental- 20 10) = 3 – 20 (200 property portfolio in China are just some of the factors AGR 15 C 2.3% that we expect to sustain Wharf’s earnings growth over 3 – 2010) = 1 CAGR (200 the next few years, even if there were to be a slowdown 10 in retail sales growth in its two malls in Hong Kong. 5 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Harbour City Time Square Source: Company, Daiwa Wharf: NAV discount since the early 1990s Valuation The stock has been re-rated over the past few years. We (Disc)/ 91-94 94-95 96-97 97-03 04-08 08-09 10-now believe there is room for this to continue, given that the prem. avg: avg: avg: avg: avg: avg: avg: 20% -15.2% -21.3% -26.8% -37.4% -31.7% -42.8% -30.0% current NAV valuation still lags behind those of its 10% major peers and its pre-1997 levels. Given our 0% expectation of sustained strong earnings and NAV (10%) (20%) growth over the next few years, we think the stock (30%) remains undervalued and maintain our six-month target (40%) (50%) price of HK$67.80. (60%) (70%) (80%) 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Wharf NAV discount Average Since 1990 Source: Thomson Reuters, Daiwa estimates Note: up until 26 May 2011 Wharf: operating-profit breakdown (2010) Earnings revisions We have not revised our earnings forecasts, but we note that the pre-sales of its China projects have been going CME & Others Logistics well (it achieved some Rmb4bn in contract sales 1.0% between the start of the year and mid May) and the 19.0% company has locked in more than Rmb4bn in pre-tax profit from the pre-sale of properties in 2010, we estimate. With strong retail sales in Hong Kong and positive rental reversions in the office sector, we think China Properties 16.0% the risk to our earnings forecasts are on the upside. HK Properties (ex. Hotels) 64% Source: Company - 3 - Construction & real estate / Hong Kong 4 HK | WARFY US 30 May 2011 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Gross rental income (HK$m) 4,733 5,567 6,552 7,229 7,513 8,114 8,763 9,464 Rental EBIT (HK$m) 3,628 4,348 5,243 5,949 6,214 6,930 7,582 8,265 Property sales profit (HK$m) 1,026 84 1,012 1,235 2,025 2,733 3,553 Size of completed investment 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 properties in HK (m sq.ft.) Profit and loss (HK$m) Year to 31 Dec 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Property sales 293 2,336 710 3,065 3,609 5,955 8,039 10,450 Rental income 4,733 5,567 6,552 7,229 7,513 8,114 8,763 9,464 Others 8,338 8,305 8,678 7,259 8,258 9,088 8,802 9,758 Total revenue 13,364 16,208 15,940 17,553 19,380 23,157 25,604 29,672 Other income 415 1,684 137 152 188 365 389 389 COGS (4,653) (5,610) (5,400) (6,069) (7,072) (8,855) (9,450) (11,508) SG&A (1,389) (1,644) (1,646) (1,606) (1,796) (1,812) (1,865) (1,940) Other op. expenses (1,266) (1,273) (1,392) (1,301) (1,328) (1,390) (1,462) (1,520) Operating profit 6,471 9,365 7,639 8,729 9,372 11,465 13,216 15,093 Net-interest inc./(exp.) (824) (1,142) (909) (338) (996) (642) (812) (743) Assoc/forex/extraord./others 308 533 (616) 1,749 1,198 520 597 648 Pre-tax profit 5,955 8,756 6,114 10,140 9,574 11,343 13,001 14,998 Tax (1,065) (2,091) (1,159) (1,524) (1,079) (2,123) (2,725) (3,202) Min. int./pref. div./others (605) (773) (761) (799) (590) (610) (646) (686) Net profit (reported) 4,285 5,892 4,194 7,817 7,905 8,610 9,630 11,110 Net profit (adjusted) 4,285 5,892 4,194 6,424 7,905 8,610 9,630 11,110 EPS (reported) (HK$) 1.751 2.317 1.528 2.838 2.870 2.895 3.179 3.668 EPS (adjusted) (HK$) 1.751
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