The Scottish Parliament Election
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The Scottish Parliament Election Report 3 May 2007 and Analysis The Scottish Parliament Election Report and 3 May 2007 Analysis The Scottish Parliament Election 3 May 2007 3 Preface The 2007 election produced a Parliament that Although the Electoral Reform Society would like broadly reflected the views of Scottish voters. to see the Scottish Parliament elected using the While the number of rejected ballot papers was Single Transferable Vote (STV) method, as was a serious cause for concern, it should not di- the case for the local government elections, the vert attention from an election in which the ac- Additional Member System (AMS) has given tual system worked tolerably well. No Scottish Scotland a representative Parliament. The mi- party had the support of anything like a major- nority SNP administration that has been formed ity of voters, and as a consequence, no party will need to seek the support of the other parties now has anything approaching a majority of in order to enact legislation, and that will ensure the seats. If the First-Past-the-Post system that decisions taken reflect the views of a much (which we still use to elect our MPs), had been higher proportion of voters than would otherwise used, Labour would have won an outright ma- have been the case – very much in keeping with jority of seats, despite only having had the sup- the four founding principles of devolution: the port of little more than 30 per cent of voters. sharing of power, accountability, openness and equal opportunities. This report has been prepared by Dr Martin Steven, Research Officer for ERS Scotland, with contributions from Christine McCartney and David Orr, and additional assistance from Ashley Dé, Dr Ken Ritchie, Amy Rodger, George Sheriff and Laura Woods. The author would particularly like to thank Lewis Baston, Director of Research at the Society, for all his help and support. June 2007 The Scottish Parliament Election 3 May 2007 5 Contents 7 Summary 9 The outcome of the election Overall results 9 State of the parties 13 19 The voting experience Turnout 19 Invalid votes 20 Using the Additional Member voting system 22 23 The fairness of the result Proportionality 23 Representing the voters 23 Fair representation – gender, ethnicity and age 24 29 A sense of proportion Improvements to the system 29 31 Appendices The Scottish Parliament Election 3 May 2007 7 Summary only 2.5 per cent in the constituency vote, and The outcome of 0.1 per cent in the regional vote. p As a consequence, it is interesting to analyse the election where the SNP vote has actually come from (an increase of 12 seats and 9.1 per cent in p The outcome of the election was as close as constituencies, 8 seats and 10.2 per cent predicted, with the SNP becoming the rise in the region). At this stage, the most largest party by only one seat, beating likely answer is that the SNP benefited from Labour into second place. The votes of the the squeeze of the Greens and the other parties were squeezed, with the Independents, as well as the implosion of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats both Scottish Socialists/Solidarity. losing one seat each, and the other smaller parties losing 14 between them. p The majority of SNP seats are still list MSPs p The overall shares of the vote enjoyed by the (26 out of 47). This is a direct consequence parties were equally close: in the constituen- of the SNP vote being geographically spread cy vote, 32.9 per cent of the electorate voted across Scotland, compared with the Labour for the SNP compared with 32.2 per cent for vote which is overwhelmingly concentrated Labour; in the regional vote, the SNP edged in the Central Belt. Nevertheless, the SNP ahead a little further – 31.0 per cent com- can still be pleased that it made a break- pared to Labour’s 29.2 per cent. through in several previously Labour seats p The Conservatives’ vote effectively stayed like Glasgow Govan, Kilmarnock & Loudoun, constant for the third election running – 16.6 Cunninghame North, Dundee West, per cent of the constituency vote, 13.9 per Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, Livingston cent of the regional vote, with 17 seats overall. and Central Fife. This means they remain the third largest party, just ahead of the Liberal Democrats (16.2 per cent of the constituency vote, 11.3 per cent of The voting experience the regional vote, with 16 seats overall). Only four of the Conservative seats are First-Past- p Turnout was disappointingly low – 51.8 per the-Post constituencies, compared with the cent, up only 2.5 per cent on 2003. Just 11 which the Liberal Democrats won. under half of Scotland did not cast a vote. p The smaller parties’ vote was squeezed. The p The large number of rejected ballots – an esti- Greens dropped from seven MSPs to two mated 3.5 per cent – is clearly not acceptable. with their share of the vote also falling by 2.8 The root of the problem appears to be linked per cent. The Scottish Socialists lost all six of to the total number of changes made simulta- their MSPs, and their share of the vote col- neously to the Scottish elections in 2007. lapsed by just over 6 per cent in both votes. The only Independent to remain in the Parliament was Margo Macdonald who still The fairness of managed to achieve 6.7 per cent in the Lothians Region. the result p Despite losing nine seats and its status as the largest party in the Parliament, the Labour vote p It is important to stress the Additional actually held up reasonably well, decreasing by Member System of voting produces a much The Scottish Parliament Election 8 Summary 3 May 2007 fairer outcome than any First-Past-The-Post result. If FPTP had been used to elect MSPs, Labour would have won 37 out of the 73 seats (50.1 per cent of all the seats), and therefore enjoyed a single seat majority over all the other parties combined, having 16 more MSPs than the SNP despite the SNP having more votes. p However, there are still large numbers of voters whose views remain unrepresented – for example, if you voted Labour in Falkirk West (as 11,292 did), you would have nobody to represent your views: your MSP is a Nationalist, and there are no Labour List MSPs in Central Scotland (despite 112, 596 people voting Labour). p Tactical voting in FPTP systems (the concept of voting for the candidate you dislike the least) is made redundant under fully propor- tional systems and STV, but not under AMS. In many constituencies, voters had to choose between the candidates of the two leading parties in order to avoid their constituency votes being wasted. Given that there is no point voting for Labour lists in some areas like Glasgow and Central Scotland where the party would gain no seats, there are tactical incentives in the regional ballot too. p The 2007 election witnessed parties contin- ue to ‘target’ the constituencies they felt were most important e.g. Gordon, Glasgow Govan and the other marginal seats. This must lead many of the voters in Scotland’s ‘safer’ constituencies to feel that their vote counts less. p The election of the first Black and Minority ethnic (BME) MSP, Bashir Ahmad, as a list MSP for the Nationalists in Glasgow is a breakthrough to be welcomed, but Holyrood remains an overwhelmingly white and largely male chamber. Indeed, the overall number of women dropped from 48 to 43. p The Scottish Parliament Election Chapter 1 3 May 2007 9 The outcome of the election vote, with 16 seats overall). The smaller parties’ Overall results vote dropped dramatically – the number of Green MSPs fell from seven to two with their It is helpful at the start of the report to take a share of the vote also declining by 2.8 per broad overview of the results, before focusing cent. The Scottish Socialists lost all six of their in more detail in the next section on the spe- MSPs, and their share of the vote collapsed by cific fortunes of each party. The outcome of the just over 6 per cent in both votes. The only In- election was as close as many had predicted dependent to remain at Holyrood was the for- prior to May 3rd, with the SNP becoming the mer Nationalist MSP and MP, Margo Macdon- largest party by just one seat, beating Labour ald, who still managed to achieve a healthy 6.7 into second place. As a consequence, the per cent in the Lothians Region. votes of the other parties were squeezed, with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats both Looking in slightly more detail at the difference losing one seat each overall, and the other between the constituency votes and the re- smaller parties losing 14 between them. gional votes, there is an interesting dichotomy between the two parties that garner most of Total number of seats won their success by the winning First-Past-the- Post constituencies, and the other two bene- 1999 2003 2007 fiting most from the regional top-up seats. Labour and the Liberal Democrats fall into the former category – 37 out of Labour’s 46 seats, Con 18 18 17 and 11 out of the Liberal Democrats’ 16 seats, Lab 56 50 46 are constituencies. Meanwhile, only 21 of the Lib Dem 17 17 16 SNP’s 47 seats, and 4 out of the Conserva- SNP 35 27 47 tives’ 17 seats, are constituency seats.