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14336/15 Lle/Roy/Ray/Yes/Cam/ Ies/CI/Fc 1 DG D 2C I Council of the European Union Brussels, 19 November 2015 (OR. fr) 14336/15 CORDROGUE 91 NOTE From: French Chair of the Dublin Group To: Dublin Group Subject: Regional situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan I. PLACE AND DATE OF MINI GROUP MEETINGS France chairs the regional Dublin Group for Afghanistan and Pakistan. In Pakistan, a regional counter narcotics seminar was organised by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in Islamabad on 27 and 28 January 2015. The mini Dublin Group subsequently met on two occasions, on 26 March and 14 October 2015 in Islamabad, on the premises of the French Embassy. In Afghanistan, the mini Dublin Group convened on 11 June 2015 on the premises of the French Embassy to meet Ms Salamat Azimi, the new Minister for Counter Narcotics, accompanied by key officials from her ministry. This meeting was an opportunity for Ms Azimi to present her priorities for action in the framework of her 100-day plan and, in the longer term, her ministry's overall strategy. The discussion also touched on the support expected from the international community. 14336/15 lle/roy/ray/yes/cam/ 1 ies/CI/fc DG D 2C EN The Ambassador of Japan in Kabul also organised a dinner in honour of Ms Salamat Azimi on 21 July, to which the Ministers for Agriculture and Rural Development and the Deputy Ministers for Interior Affairs and Health were invited. The United States Ambassador and the Ambassador of France in his capacity as Chair of the mini Dublin Group attended from the donor side, in addition to the UNODC representative. The Kabul mini group plans to meet again in late 2015 or early 2016 with Ms Salamat Azimi to receive clarifications on the Afghan ministerial strategy, the outline of which was presented by Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah in the margins of the United Nations General Assembly. II. MINI GROUPS' WORK a. Regional situation as regards drug production The regional situation as regards drug production has been the subject of two UNODC reports: the one published in June 2015 on heroin trafficking through the southern route (https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Studies/Afghan_opiate_trafficking_southern_route_web.pdf) was supplemented on 14 October 2015 by the annual report on opium production in Afghanistan (https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afg_Executive_summary_2015_final.pdf). Afghanistan remains the world's leading producer of opium, and Pakistan, which has been declared 'poppy-free' (free of opium poppy cultivation areas), continues to be a major transit region for Afghan production. 14336/15 lle/roy/ray/yes/cam/ 2 ies/CI/fc DG D 2C EN Indicative map of the southern heroin trafficking route (Source : https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/Studies/Afghan_opiate_trafficking_southern_route_web.pdf) b. National situations regarding production, consumption and trafficking of drugs, precursors and money laundering In Afghanistan Opium cultivation in Afghanistan The overall picture of opium cultivation in Afghanistan corresponds to a range of situations in the country, where industrial monoculture production, entirely controlled by criminal organisations linked to the insurgency (the Taliban movement), in Helmand for example, co-exists with 'ancillary' production, for example to mark boundaries between cotton plots, which provides farmers with additional income that is all the more welcome because opium keeps well, helping them to counter the economic risks of legal crops. 14336/15 lle/roy/ray/yes/cam/ 3 ies/CI/fc DG D 2C EN In this context, the geographical distribution of opium crops has not changed much. In 2015, land dedicated to opium production was still mostly in the south (66 % of the total area, compared with 67 % in 2014) and west (24 % compared with 22 %). Helmand remained by far the main province harbouring opium crops, with 86 443 hectares, or nearly half of the total. The relative shares for the east (7 % of the total in 2015 compared with 9 % in 2014) and north-west (2 %, stable year-on-year) did not change much with regard to the total. The cultivated areas in the centre and north grew considerably in absolute terms but remained insignificant with regard to the national level (0.2 % of the total in 2015 compared with 0.1 % in 2014 for the centre and 1 % compared with 0.3 % for the north). In 2015, eradication campaigns increased sharply (+ 40 % of cultivated areas destroyed, amounting to 3 760 hectares) but their impact remained modest, and the campaigns concerned only 2 % of the total land sown with opium poppy. More concentrated than in 2014, eradication campaigns were conducted in 12 provinces (compared with 17 in 2014), in order to focus on the regions with high production. 1 747 hectares of opium poppy fields, or almost half of the national total, were eradicated in the province of Helmand alone (+ 122 % compared with 2014). In total, the UNODC reports a 19 % decrease in areas under opium poppy cultivation between 2014 and 2015. However, the fact that this was the first reduction in cultivated areas observed since 2009 should not obscure the fact that in 2015 the agricultural area dedicated to opium poppy production was still at its fourth highest level. The number of poppy-free provinces (with less than 100 cultivated hectares) dropped from 15 to 14, due to the province of Balkh (Mazar-e-Sharif) having exceeded the threshold. The UNODC also notes a change in methodology which could partly explain the rise in eradications in 2015. Satellite observation technology has evolved, so it allows plots to be identified more selectively, consequently reducing the estimation of areas planted with opium poppy. However, the precise impact of this factor is not yet known and should be assessed separately and included in the UNODC's next full report. 14336/15 lle/roy/ray/yes/cam/ 4 ies/CI/fc DG D 2C EN The 2015 eradication campaign also caused fewer deaths than the one in 2014. Five members of the Afghan security forces were killed and 18 wounded, compared with 13 killed and 26 wounded in 2014. This can be attributed to improved coordination between the Ministry of Counter Narcotics and the Ministry of Defence. Eradication campaigns in Helmand and Kandahar were thus conducted in the immediate proximity of military operations, increasing the protection of agents in charge of eradication. Opium production in Afghanistan Based on crop mapping, the geographical distribution of production shows that most crops remained concentrated in the south (58 % of the total in 2015 compared with 69 % in 2014), despite the drop in the yield per hectare (- 45 % between 2015 and 2014). The west, also affected by the decrease in yields (- 20 %), saw its share in potential national production fall from 22 % in 2014 to 16 % in 2015. The east, where areas under cultivation decreased, but the yield per hectare stabilised (- 8 %), continued to account for 13 % of decreasing total national production. In the north, where the yield per hectare increased slightly (+ 11 %) and where there was an increase in cultivated areas, potential production rose sharply (+ 264 %), although remaining modest with regard to the national level (increasing from 0.3 % of the total in 2014 to 2 % in 2015). Similarly, by maintaining its potential production in a context of national decreases, the north-east's share increased from 3 % to 5 % of the total at national level. Overall, between 2014 (6 400 tonnes) and 2015 (3 300 tonnes), the UNODC assesses the fall in opium production at 48 %. This net decrease is the result of a drop in the yield per hectare, which fell from 28.7 kg in 2014 to 18.3 kg in 2015, a decrease of – 36 %. This seems to be more closely linked to external factors that could be mitigated or reversed from next year (water shortage, fungi affecting harvests, soil depletion after several years of record production) and to the scale of fighting in the north of Helmand (which will certainly have disrupted work in the fields and the organisation of irrigated areas) than to any real impact from the eradication campaigns and the intervention of the Afghan authorities. 14336/15 lle/roy/ray/yes/cam/ 5 ies/CI/fc DG D 2C EN Finally, it is very likely that the reduced harvest will not have a significant impact on the market, as the level of reserves, built up after years of record production, is thought to be high and so should largely offset this sudden fall in national production. Once opium has been harvested and properly packaged and stored, it can be conserved for several years. In addition, it is interesting to note an increase in the number of laboratories for the production of heroine observed in Afghanistan. This proves Afghanistan is moving further up the value chain, with criminal organisations linked to opium cultivation knowing they can make even higher profits by processing their product themselves locally rather than simply exporting the primary material. Cultivation and production of other drugs in Afghanistan In addition to opium, Afghanistan is also the world's leading producer of cannabis, along with Morocco. Production of the drug feeds into local consumption as well as regional and international trafficking. Synthetic drugs are also produced in Afghanistan. Drug consumption in Afghanistan The figures provided by the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (United States), and confirmed by the Afghan authorities, paint a bleak picture of drug consumption. According to those figures there are 3.5 million drug users in Afghanistan, of whom one million are young children and a high percentage are women. In total, 11 % of the Afghan population is believed to consume drugs. 14336/15 lle/roy/ray/yes/cam/ 6 ies/CI/fc DG D 2C EN Afghanistan national drug control strategy National strategy The Afghan authorities' alarming report on drug use highlighted the need for a holistic approach to combating the problem and for close coordination among the various Afghan ministries concerned.
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