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Richmondshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA)

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Richmondshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) Richmondshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) 2016 Richmondshire District Council Final Report February 2017 Main Contact: Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk © 2017 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) Richmondshire SHMA 2016 Page | 2 Table of Contents Executive summary ....................................................................................................... 7 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 11 Background and objectives .............................................................................. 11 National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) and other requirements.......................................................................... 11 Definitions ......................................................................................................... 13 Geography ........................................................................................................ 15 Richmondshire context ..................................................................................... 17 Richmondshire District strategies and plans ..................................................... 18 Research methodology ..................................................................................... 21 Report structure ................................................................................................ 21 2. Defining the Housing Market Area .................................................................... 23 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 23 The Geography of Housing Market Areas ........................................................ 23 House prices and rates of change in house prices ........................................... 26 Migration and self-containment......................................................................... 29 Commuting patterns ......................................................................................... 32 Concluding comments ...................................................................................... 33 3. Objectively Assessed Housing Need and Housing Requirement ..................... 34 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 34 Establishing the Housing Market Area .............................................................. 35 Demographic starting point ............................................................................... 35 Adjusting the projections .................................................................................. 36 Employment trends ........................................................................................... 38 Market signals and past trends in delivery ........................................................ 40 Comparator areas ............................................................................................. 44 Past trends in housing delivery ......................................................................... 46 Concluding comments and implications for OAN .............................................. 47 Affordable need and housing provision targets................................................. 48 Objectively Assessed Housing Need ................................................................ 48 4. The need for all types of housing...................................................................... 51 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 51 Dwelling mix and affordability ........................................................................... 51 People wishing to build their own homes .......................................................... 55 Family housing ................................................................................................. 55 Armed forces accommodation .......................................................................... 55 Older people ..................................................................................................... 56 Households with specific needs ........................................................................ 59 5. Conclusion: Policy and Strategic Issues ........................................................... 61 February 2017 Richmondshire SHMA 2016 Page | 3 The Housing Market Area ................................................................................. 61 Objectively assessed housing need, market signals and Housing Requirement ..................................................................................................... 62 The current housing market .............................................................................. 62 The need for all types of housing...................................................................... 63 NPPF requirements .......................................................................................... 65 Introduction to Technical Appendices.......................................................................... 66 Technical Appendix A: Richmondshire housing market review ................................... 67 Technical Appendix B: Affordable housing need calculations ..................................... 83 Technical Appendix C: Dwelling mix analysis Reviewing the future profile of dwelling stock in Richmondshire ............................................................ 93 Technical Appendix D: Monitoring and updating ......................................................... 98 Technical Appendix E: National Planning Policy Framework and Planning Practice Guidance Checklist ................................................................ 101 List of Tables Table ES1 Summary of size/designation recommendation based on households in need by bed size/designation ........................................... 9 Table ES2 Older persons’ dwelling requirements 2014 to 2035 .............................. 10 Table 1.1 Local Plan Table 3, Scale and Distribution of Housing up to 2028 ........ 19 Table 2.1 House prices in Richmondshire 2015 by sub-area ................................ 28 Table 2.2 House prices and price change in neighbouring areas, North Yorkshire and England........................................................................... 28 Table 2.3 Flows of residents (all moves) ............................................................... 30 Table 2.4 Containment ratios ................................................................................. 31 Table 2.5 Richmondshire 2011 census commuting flows: workers (aged 16- 74) ......................................................................................................... 32 Table 3.1 Dwelling requirements under alternative scenarios and headship rate sensitivities ..................................................................................... 37 Table 3.2 Labour force and jobs-growth outcomes 2015-2035 .............................. 39 Table 3.3 Housing Market Signals ......................................................................... 43 Table 3.4 Housing market signals comparison with local districts, the region and England ........................................................................................... 45 Table 3.5 Private and affordable housing completions 2012/13 to 2015/16 .......... 46 Table 3.6 Net completions by sub-area 2012/13 to 2014/15 ................................. 46 Table 3.7 Net completions Upper Dales reported by YDNP 2012/13 to 2015/16 .................................................................................................. 47 Table 4.1 Overall dwelling requirements by type and size 2014-2035 ................... 52 February 2017 Richmondshire SHMA 2016 Page | 4 Table 4.2 Summary of net annual imbalance based on households in need who couldn't afford by bed size/designation .......................................... 53 Table 4.3 Suggested dwelling mix by market and affordable dwellings based on OAN of 115 each year ...................................................................... 55 Table 4.4 Older persons’ dwelling requirements 2014 to 2035 .............................. 57 Table 4.5 Future market split of older persons’ accommodation by relative deprivation/affluence of an area ............................................................. 59 Table 4.6 Client groups accommodated in Social Rented sector in Richmondshire District 2010/11 to 2012/13 ........................................... 59 Table A.1 Dwellings and households across Richmondshire by sub-area ............. 67 Table A.2 Total dwelling stock by type and size by sub-area ................................. 68 Table A.3 Age of dwellings ..................................................................................... 69 Table A.4 Dwelling stock condition in England and Richmondshire estimates ....... 70 Table A.5 Lower Quartile and median price and income required to be affordable ............................................................................................... 73 Table A.6 Relative affordability of lower quartile prices by district (residence based) .................................................................................................... 74 Table A.7 Relative affordability of median prices by district
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