Kochan, Ben Migration and London’s growth: final report of LSE London’s HEIF 5 project on Migration and the Transformation of London Book Original citation: Kochan, Ben, ed. (2014) Migration and London’s growth: final report of LSE London’s HEIF 5 project on Migration and the Transformation of London. LSE London, London, UK. ISBN 9781909890114 This version available at: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/62150/ Available in LSE Research Online: September 2015 © 2014 The Authors LSE has developed LSE Research Online so that users may access research output of the School. Copyright © and Moral Rights for the papers on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. Users may download and/or print one copy of any article(s) in LSE Research Online to facilitate their private study or for non-commercial research. You may not engage in further distribution of the material or use it for any profit-making activities or any commercial gain. You may freely distribute the URL (http://eprints.lse.ac.uk) of the LSE Research Online website. Preface This book is the final publication from a two year project funded by the HEIF 5 pro- gramme on ‘Migration and the Transformation of London’. Details of the events and other publications are at http://lselondonmigration.org/. We are extremely grateful for the con- tinued support, both financial and administrative, which has made this project possible. We would like to thank all those who chaired, spoke at and participated in the many work- shops, roundtables, conferences and other events which made up the programme. Your preparedness to participate actively often on a regular basis in the extended programme of events has made this knowledge transfer project possible. Migration and We would like to thank the following for their contributions including: Karen Buck, MP, Jonathan Beaverstock, University of Bristol, Aymo Brunetti, University of Bern, Kerwin Datu, LSE, David Goodhart, DEMOS, Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College, Michael Keith, London’s growth COMPAS, Oxford University, Robert Kloosterman, University of Amsterdam, David Metcalf, LSE, John Mollenkopf, CUNY, Max Nathan, SERC, Antoine Paccoud, LSE, Sara Final report of LSE London’s HEIF 5 project Parker, Confederation of British Industry, Trevor Phillips, Jonathan Portes, NIESR, on Migration and the Transformation of Barbara Roche, Migration Matters, Ben Rogers, Centre for London, Shamit Saggar, London led by Christine Whitehead, University of Essex, Paresh Shah, London Higher, Jeremy Skinner, GLA, Colin Ian Gordon and Tony Travers Stanbridge, London Chamber of Commerce and Industry. We are particularly grateful to Melissa Fernandez and Emma Sagor who played central roles in arranging the programme, the conferences and ensuring that the book reached completion. Most importantly we wish to thank our editor Ben Kochan for transforming the wide rang- ing contributions into a coherent whole – and through his patience ensuring that every- thing was delivered. Edited by Christine Whitehead, Ian Gordon and Tony Travers Ben Kochan LSE London 2014 Cover picture credit: Photo by David Iliff. License: CC-BY-SA 3.0 Published by LSE London The London School of Economics and Political Science Contents Houghton Street Introduction 5 Ben Kochan London WC2A 2AE 1. The changing pattern of London’s population UK Settlement patterns of migrants from rich and poor countries into the 11 London metropolitan region since 2001 LSE London acknowledges funding for the development and production of this book Kerwin Datu from HEIF 5. Migrant trajectories in London - ‘spreading wings’ or facing displacement? 27 Antoine Paccoud © In the collection as a whole: London School of Economics and Political Science 2014 © In individual chapters belongs to the respective individual authors named therein 2014 Fitting a quart in a pint pot? Development, displacement and/or 41 densification in the London region Ian Gordon British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data. 2. Migration, border controls and the London economy A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Higher education and immigration 57 Paresh Shah ISBN 978-1-909890-11-4 Sustaining the City of London’s global labour market: the role of highly- 77 skilled immigration in banking, financial and professional services All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval Jonathan V. Beaverstock system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writ- ing of LSE London at the London School of Economics. Swiss immigration policy - at a crossroads 95 Aymo Brunetti Printed in Great Britain by RAP Spiderweb Limited, Lancashire Migration and the case for a higher National Minimum Wage in London 107 Ian Gordon Immigration and the UK economy: interaction between policy and 117 Layout and design by Ben Kochan economic research since the mid-1990s Jonathan Portes Photographs by Ben Kochan unless otherwise credited 3. Migration and communities and services This publication, as well as papers and presentations associated with the project are Faces of migration: migrants and the transformation of Amsterdam 127 available on LSE London's web-site: http://lselondonmigration.org/ Robert C. Kloosterman The impact of migration on London’s housing 143 Christine Whitehead London’s churning 155 David Goodhart Migration and London’s growth 4. Migration and urban politics Introduction London as a migration city in the context of UK politics 167 Shamit Saggar The impact of migrants on London politics 183 Tony Travers Ben Kochan The impact of immigrants on city politics: comparing New York and London 201 John Mollenkopf Conclusions 213 Ian Gordon, Ben Kochan, Tony Travers and Christine Whitehead London’s population has changed dramatically over the last decade. Press coverage of results from the 2011 Census took many people by surprise with its estimate of Contributors 218 London’s population growth and the importance of international migration within it – even though annual population surveys had been providing a very similar picture for some years. This was the backdrop for LSE London mounting a two year project (with HEIF funding) to improve our understanding of what has been happening, how it is changing the city, and what the implications are for practitioners and policy-makers. The project looked at the scale and character of in-migration from overseas (in the context of changing control regimes) together with its impact on both the London economy and the lived experience of the city’s workers and residents. It promoted knowledge exchange through a range of activities bringing together academics, pro- fessionals and policy makers to look both at broad patterns of change and more spe- cific impacts of migration (and migration control) on different sectors of the London economy – notably higher education, finance, IT and servicing activities. This research came at the same time as London Mayor Boris Johnson was initiating a major review examining the needs of the capital’s growing population. Over the decade from 2001 to 2011 the population grew by an average of 88,000 a year made up of increased natural growth and international migration offset by out- migration to the rest of the country. The rate of growth increased in the latter part of the decade partly as a result of the financial crisis which slowed out-migration to the rest of the country. In the 2011 Census almost 37 per cent of London’s population was foreign born compared to around 1 in four in 2001. The decade also saw rapid change in the ethnic mix of the capital with 60 per cent of the population classifying them- selves as white, compared to 70 per cent a decade earlier. Most important for many commentators is the numbers of white British living in the capital which declined by 600,000, a proportionate drop from 60 per cent to 45 per cent over the same period. 5 Migration and London’s growth Introduction The GLA expects the growth to continue. Its current projection, which is contested by displaced. Their movement seems to be a series of responses to common processes some commentators, suggests that London’s population would increase by 37 per of change rather than attempts at consolidating or expanding the space they once cent between 2011 and 2050 from about 8.2 million to 11.3 million. These projections occupied in the city. are based on the trends over recent decades. The GLA has acknowledged there were Ian Gordon looks at the processes through which a growing migrant population has many factors which could affect the growth. One was the economy – during the last been accommodated within London's rather inelastic housing stock. In part this has recession out-migration fell whilst in-migration rose. The recovery could mean that been achieved through displacement of others into nearby regions, but for those arriv- migration patterns revert to traditional norms or, alternatively, that the changes are ing from poor countries he finds that this has largely been accomplished through structural and are here to stay. acceptance of much higher levels of crowding. This is a key reason why London's over- The size of households is another uncertainty. Between 2001 and 2011, it was pro- all population has been able to grow substantially but it is not a factor which can be jected that the size of households would fall significantly and the number of one per- expected to continue. As these migrants become better integrated economically and son households would increase by about 1.5 million. In fact they only rose by 480,000 socially, density standards seem to converge towards those of the UK-born population. and the number of households with couples and one or more other adults rose by Paresh Shah demonstrates how international students make an important contribu- 220,000 against a projection of a 365,000 fall, bucking both national and longer term tion to higher education providing diversity to the student body, contributing to HE trends.