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Etihad Etisalat Co.(Mobily) Result Flash Note Q3-20

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Etihad Etisalat Co.(Mobily) Result Flash Note Q3-20 October 2020 Etihad Etisalat Co.(Mobily) Result Flash Note Q3-20 Etihad Etisalat Co. (Mobily)’s net profit jumped to SAR 222mn in Q3-20 from SAR 51mn in Q3-19, beating our and consensus estimates of SAR 188mn and SAR 190mn, Neutral respectively. The deviation of the bottom line from our estimate was primarily attributed to higher GP Margin and lower zakat expenses. Revenue for the quarter fell 1.4% Y/Y Target Price (SAR) 27.5 to SAR 3.4bn due to the adverse impact of restrictions on the number of Hajj pilgrims to Upside / (Downside)* -13.5% contain the spread of COVID-19, coupled with the decrease in mobile termination rates. Source: Tadawul *prices as of 21th of October 2020 We maintain our TP of SAR 27.5/share on the stock with a “Neutral” rating. Key Financials (in SAR mn, unless • Mobily posted net profit of SAR 222mn in Q3-20 compared with SAR 51mn in Q3- specified) FY19 FY20E FY21E 19. Variance in net income from our estimate was mainly ascribed to the significant Revenue 13,450 13,993 15,138 improvement in gross margin, despite the decline in revenue, and lower-than-expected Growth % 13.4% 4.0% 8.2% Net Profit 31 621 746 zakat expenses. Finance costs significantly decreased by 35.1% Y/Y to SAR 134mn Growth % NM NM 20.2 (in line with our estimate), owing to refinancing of a major portion of Mobily’s debt and EPS 0.04 0.81 0.97 reduction in interest rates. Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital,*Not Meaningful • Revenue declined 1.4% Y/Y to SAR 3,355mn, below our estimate of SAR 3,610mn. Key Ratios The decrease in revenue was attributed to lower revenue from international roaming FY19 FY20E FY21E services amid restrictions on the number of Hajj pilgrims. Additionally, reduction in mobile Gross Margin 58.0% 59.0% 59.4% termination rates weighed on the top line. Net Margin 0.2% 4.4% 4.9% P/E (x) High 39.4 32.8 • Gross profit rose 2.0% Y/Y to SAR 2,056mn, despite a fall in revenue, as cost of revenue P/B (x) 1.4 1.7 1.6 dropped 6.5% Y/Y to SAR 1,299mn. Subsequently, GP margin expanded by 210bps Y/Y EV/EBITDA (x) 1.5 2.5 2.7 to 61.3%. Source: Company reports,Aljazira Capital,*Not Meaningful Key Market Data • Operating profit rose 35.9% Y/Y to SAR 356mn, as improved GP margin was further Market Cap(mn) 24,486 supported by lower OPEX (-3.0% Y/Y). Operating margin stood at 10.6% (~+290bps YTD% 27.2% Y/Y) in Q3-20 as against our estimate of 9.2% due to lower-than-anticipated OPEX. 52 week (High)/(Low) 32.30/18.50 AJC view: Mobily’s net profit exceed our expectation mainly due to higher GP Margin. The Share Outstanding (mn) 770.0 company’s Q3-20 revenue was impacted by the restriction of Hajj to limited pilgrims. We Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital expect slight recovery in revenue from international roaming services, as Umrah opens Price Performance for pilgrims outside the Kingdom from November. Notable improvement in margins during 9,500 35 the quarter would be a positive if the company manages to sustain such margins in future. 31 8,500 Lower finance costs continued to support the bottom line during the quarter and will likely 27 7,500 stay at this level in near future, given low interest rates and refinancing of a major part of the 23 6,500 company’s debt. Moreover, Mobily and Zain KSA are seeking various options for their tower 19 business. If they are successful in attracting investment or selling the tower business, the 5,500 15 Oct/19 Nov/19 Jan/20 Feb/20 Apr/20 May/20 Jul/20 Sep/20 Oct/20 proceeds can be used to lower net debt from the current level of SAR 10.9bn and invest in 5G deployment. Mobily’s stock is currently trading at a P/B ratio of 1.7x to our FY20 book TASI-LHS Mobily (SAR) -RHS value and 1.6x in to FY21 book value. We maintain our TP of SAR 27.5/share on the stock Source: Tadawul, Aljazira Capital with a “Neutral” rating. Results Summary SARmn Deviation from Q3-19 Q2-20 Q3-20 Change Y/Y Change Q/Q (unless specified) AJC Estimates Revenue 3,404 3,559 3,355 -1.4% -5.7% -7.1% AGM - Head of Research Gross Profit 2,015 2,062 2,056 2.0% -0.3% -1.8% Talha Nazar Gross Margin 59.2% 57.9% 61.3% - - - +966 11 2256250 [email protected] EBIT 262 334 356 35.9% 6.6% 7.1% Net Profit 51 185 222 335.3% 20.0% 18.3% Source: Company reports, Aljazira Capital, *Not Meaningful 1 © All rights reserved AGM-Head of Research Senior Analyst Analyst Talha Nazar Jassim Al-Jubran Abdulrahman Al-Mashal +966 11 2256250 +966 11 2256248 +966 11 2256374 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Analyst Faisal Alsuwelimy +966 11 2256115 RESEARCH DIVISION [email protected] General Manager – Brokerage Services & AGM-Head of international and institutions AGM-Head of Qassim & Eastern Province sales Alaa Al-Yousef Ahmad Salman, CFA Abdullah Al-Rahit +966 11 2256060 +966 11 2256201 +966 16 3617547 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] AGM-Head of Central & Western Region Investment Centers Sultan Ibrahim AL-Mutawa CENTERS DIVISION +966 11 2256364 [email protected] BROKERAGE AND INVESTMENT BROKERAGE AlJazira Capital, the investment arm of Bank AlJazira, is a Shariaa Compliant Saudi Closed Joint Stock company and operating under the regulatory supervision of the Capital Market Authority. AlJazira Capital is licensed to conduct securities business in all securities business as authorized by CMA, including dealing, managing, arranging, advisory, and custody. AlJazira Capital is the continuation of a long success story in the Saudi Tadawul market, having occupied the market leadership position for several years. With an objective to maintain its market leadership position, AlJazira Capital is expanding its brokerage capabilities to offer further value-added services, brokerage across MENA and DIVISION RESEARCH International markets, as well as offering a full suite of securities business. 1. Overweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a discount to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Overweight” will typically provide an upside potential of over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. 2. Underweight: This rating implies that the stock is currently trading at a premium to its 12 months price target. Stocks rated “Underweight” would typically decline by over 10% from the current price levels over next twelve months. 3. Neutral: The rating implies that the stock is trading in the proximate range of its 12 months price target. Stocks RATING rated “Neutral” is expected to stagnate within +/- 10% range from the current price levels over next twelve months. TERMINOLOGY 4. Suspension of rating or rating on hold (SR/RH): This basically implies suspension of a rating pending further analysis of a material change in the fundamentals of the company. Disclaimer The purpose of producing this report is to present a general view on the company/economic sector/economic subject under research, and not to recommend a buy/sell/hold for any security or any other assets. Based on that, this report does not take into consideration the specific financial position of every investor and/or his/her risk appetite in relation to investing in the security or any other assets, and hence, may not be suitable for all clients depending on their financial position and their ability and willingness to undertake risks. It is advised that every potential investor seek professional advice from several sources concerning investment decision and should study the impact of such decisions on his/her financial/legal/tax position and other concerns before getting into such investments or liquidate them partially or fully. The market of stocks, bonds, macroeconomic or microeconomic variables are of a volatile nature and could witness sudden changes without any prior warning, therefore, the investor in securities or other assets might face some unexpected risks and fluctuations. All the information, views and expectations and fair values or target prices contained in this report have been compiled or arrived at by Al-Jazira Capital from sources believed to be reliable, but Al-Jazira Capital has not independently verified the contents obtained from these sources and such information may be condensed or incomplete. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this report. Al-Jazira Capital shall not be liable for any loss as that may arise from the use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The past performance of any investment is not an indicator of future performance. Any financial projections, fair value estimates or price targets and statements regarding future prospects contained in this document may not be realized. The value of the security or any other assets or the return from them might increase or decrease. Any change in currency rates may have a positive or negative impact on the value/return on the stock or securities mentioned in the report. The investor might get an amount less than the amount invested in some cases.
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