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2005 Retail Property Briefing Paper

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2005 Retail Property Briefing Paper Retail Property Briefing 21 CHASE & PARTNERS Retail & Leisure Property Specialists c&p December 05 Market Overview Last year, movement in the retail property The high street has also seen its fair share If the government’s proposals to tax Bank of England figures show that lending The fortunes of the occupiers are of market was difficult to predict. As we of business failures. This market, however, development gain do make the statute on real estate now stands at £134.9bn. course the crucial element in retail anticipated, this year has seen both has a much larger pool of potential books this will act as a brake on future The annual growth rate of this debt property. There is no doubt that trading fragility in the occupational market occupiers and a greater diversity of development. is 19.1% - a very significant extension. is going to be much tougher over the coming to the fore, and the continuing demand (especially for prime space) than Increases in property values, nevertheless, next 12 months with price deflation, strength of the investment market that the retail warehouse sector. As such, it Although some observers of statistics would appear to provide for a sustainable squeezed margins and ever increasing has seen yields make further falls. has held up remarkably well in the face of suggest that institutional investors are ratio of debt to value. It is quite clear, competition from the internet. This will harsher trading conditions. Furthermore, buying less, our experience on the however, how important property is encourage more diverse and flexible This fragility in the occupational market recent rental growth in the high street has ground is the opposite. Requirements in supporting the UK economy. Debt letting strategies. The result will be that can be attributed to a wide number of been more measured than for some parts remain unsatisfied as higher weightings in in this sector is 2.5 times that to the lease lengths will continue to reduce, general economic factors. The housing of the retail warehouse sector. This makes property are maintained. In this respect, manufacturing sector, and 40 times that incentives are likely to increase, and some market, for example, has weakened and market conditions in the high street there has been a structural change in to the UK service sector. Interestingly, the age-old criteria such as upward-only rent indications are that consumers have somewhat less prone to volatility than for investment attitudes that are likely to be annual growth in debt to the construction reviews will be under increasing scrutiny begun to feel more cautious. Adverse retail warehousing. here for some time to come. industry at 19.5% is the same as for real and market pressure. Land Securities’ media reports on domestic debt, now estate, even though the total debt in this flexible leasing approach will be worth amounting to over £1 trillion, is perhaps A note of caution when considering Retail property, according to the latest sector is £20.3bn. watching closely over the next 12 months causing consumers to think twice about the true state of retail sales: some annual IPD Index has shown strong and beyond. further spending and start reducing recent press comment has indicated returns. At 16.6% for the past 3 years household debt. dissatisfaction with the manner of and 12.3% over the past 5 years, these calculation of sales figures. The current outstrip all other property sectors. The retail warehouse market offers system is still based on an approach first The latest monthly IPD Index, however, the greatest contradictions. During the adopted prior to the second world war, demonstrates the improving returns of Graham Chase FRICS FCI Arb FInstCPD year, falling consumer confidence and and may not be reflective of the true equities against property (17.50% for expenditure fed through into tangible position. property and 19.80% of the FTSE All failures. A number of furniture multiple Share Index). This perhaps represents retailers called in the administrators or After ten years, internet retailing is having a natural cycle. In any event, the were put into receivership. This wake up an impact on high street sales - a trend importance of property as part of an call was followed by falling sales volumes that is likely to continue. institutional balanced investment policy is and profits in the DIY and electrical unlikely to be shaken off. sectors at B&Q and Currys / PC World. Recent concerns over the extent of new development appear over-emphasised. Property companies are not, however, Despite difficult trading conditions for The flow of new space is at a steady pace being left behind. The likes of Land the occupiers, investors have continued and in most cases represents long awaited Securities, Hammersons and British Land to purchase retail warehouse investments regeneration schemes or redevelopment are finding ever more innovative ways with vigour, producing falling yields and of outdated and tired town centres. of expanding their portfolios. New debt a narrow yield gap between prime and driven vehicles and greater flexibility secondary investments. Recent ‘trophy’ In the retail warehouse market, new allow for joint ventures and large deals at the prime end of the market, developments are a rare event indeed. corporate acquisitions. The general focus together with some concerns over pricing This is the case even for bulky goods that for maximising returns is on having a in the secondary bulky goods sector, require the type of space that only large smaller number of larger investments. indicate that we may see a widening of space developments can offer. Palace Exchange Shopping Centre, Enfield. Lettings, development consultancy the yield gap over the coming 12 months. and investment sale for ING Developments. 1 2 Town planning Georgina Zammit Jim Morrissey BSc Econ(Hons) Stephen Rose BA(Hons) Dip TP MRTPI We are now several months into the the broad categories of comparison and higher order centre, providing there is an Returning to the example of Droitwich Criteria new PPS6 era, and already difficulties are convenience goods…”. adequate level of local provision. and Worcester, surveys show that the We still have no comprehensive beginning to emerge in its interpretation. majority of expenditure on fashion items explanation of the concept of retail need. The draft version promised a host of From our experience, assessing the Traditionally, when examining the issue leaks from Droitwich to Worcester, but To our mind, criteria we put forward at “best practice guidelines”, but these have need for further retail floorspace on the of need, practitioners would establish, this is not the case with DIY spend. By a public inquiry at Macclesfield in 1999, yet to emerge, leaving practitioners to basis of expenditure on all comparison through survey work, the extent to analysing the spending habits of goods to and which has been adopted by many cope with a document that is increasingly goods is altogether inadequate. By way which expenditure flows to various be sold within the broad categories of other practitioners as a sensible and viewed as lacking in substance. of example, consider the following: In centres according to the types of goods comparison and convenience, the need comprehensive approach, is as good as most shopping hierarchies, smaller town purchased, e.g. where shoppers go for for different types of provision locally can anything that has been produced. On ‘Need’ centres are dominated by the sub- clothing and fashion items, the main and be evaluated. that occasion we set out that retail need The new policy statement reiterates guid- regional centre, and in this way, think of top up food trips, for DIY goods, for will vary from place to place and from ance contained in earlier ministerial “clari- the likes of Thirsk and York or indeed, electrical goods, for furniture and floor If, however, we adhere to government time to time, but its constituent elements fications”, that retail development in edge Droitwich and Worcester. In such smaller coverings, and so on. In this way, the guidance, the fact that expenditure on were likely to be comprised of one or of centre or out of centre locations must towns, it is natural for expenditure on adequacy of local provision will inevitably all comparison goods is leaking from more of the following:- Retail planning consultancy for Hermes. Crystal Peaks be supported by evidence of ‘need’. In certain comparison goods, such as fashion vary, according to the different trips Droitwich to Worcester provides the Shopping Centre, Sheffield. this regard, quantitative need is deemed and luxury items, to flow to the larger planned and the types of goods to be ‘need justification’ for further comparison • the quantitative capacity for the to be weightier than qualitative need. The centre. It does not follow, however, that purchased. goods floorspace, of any description, proposal; former must be demonstrated, whereas expenditure on other comparison goods, in Droitwich. What this means is that the latter can be taken into account. such as DIY products, would flow to a the leaking of expenditure on fashion • meeting a qualitative deficiency in goods to Worcester is used to justify the existing provision (either in overall terms The retail industry is extremely dynamic provision of further DIY floorspace! This or spatially); and we can all identify different legitimate cannot be right and it cannot lead us to a elements of it. In this way, purpose - built sensible shopping provision that reflects • a related absence of harm to interests shopping malls have a different dynamic real local needs. of acknowledged importance; to the high street, which itself differs from retail warehouse parks, which themselves While we can understand the Minister’s • broad compliance with recognised differ from food superstores, which differ wish to avoid over-elaborate need planning objectives e.g.
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