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The Mobility of Displaced Syrians

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The Mobility of Displaced Syrians The Mobility of Displaced Syrians An Economic and Social Analysis in collaboration with and contributions from © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to: World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; Fax: 202-522- 2625; E-mail: [email protected]. Cover and interior artwork: Solara Shiha. Used with the permission of Solara Shiha. Further permission required for reuse. Cover and interior design: Design and Development Minds Contents Acknowledgements ...............................................................................................................................5 Key Messages ............................................................................................................................................7 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................. 11 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 27 The Nature of the Syrian Displacement .................................................................................30 3 About This Report .......................................................................................................................... 42 Chapter 1: Refugee Returns Through a Global Lens .................................................................................... 45 1.1. The Legal and Normative Context for Returns ............................................................48 1.2. The Numbers of Returns ...................................................................................................... 50 1.3. The Determinants of Return .............................................................................................. 52 1.4. Asymmetries in Return ........................................................................................................ 61 1.5. Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................................ 63 Chapter 2: Economic and Social Context for Syrians ................................................................................... 67 2.1. Data and Methodology ....................................................................................................... 69 2.2. Peace, Security, and Protection ....................................................................................... 72 2.2.1. Status Quo: The Absence of a Positive Peace ...................................................... 73 2.3. Livelihoods and Access to Employment ........................................................................79 2.3.1. Economic Activity .......................................................................................................... 80 2.3.2. Employment ................................................................................................................... 93 2.3.3. Monetary Poverty ........................................................................................................109 2.3.4. Social Assistance ..........................................................................................................115 2.4. Housing, Land,and Property Rights ..............................................................................120 2.5. Infrastructure and Publicly Provided Services ...........................................................134 2.5.1. Health ...............................................................................................................................135 2.5.2. Education ........................................................................................................................147 2.5.3. Water and Sanitation ..................................................................................................156 2.5.4. Solid Waste Management .........................................................................................172 2.5.5. Energy ..............................................................................................................................178 2.5.6. Transportation ..............................................................................................................182 2.6. Concluding Remarks ..........................................................................................................195 Chapter 3: The Anatomy of Returns to Date .................................................................................................199 3.1. Return Trends at First Sight ..............................................................................................202 3.2. Disentangling the Drivers of Return .............................................................................208 3.2.1. What Matters and What Does not: Generalized Effects .................................210 3.2.2. Dodging Complexity: Localized Effects ...............................................................221 4 3.3. Special Issues in Return .....................................................................................................226 3.3.1. Conflict Events and Return .......................................................................................227 3.3.2. Duration of Refuge ......................................................................................................229 3.3.3. Gender and Family Ties .............................................................................................231 3.4. Perceptions of Return .........................................................................................................239 3.5. Concluding Remarks ..........................................................................................................247 Chapter 4: Return Simulations ...........................................................................................................................251 4.1. Taking Uncertainty into Consideration ........................................................................254 4.2. A Simulation Approach to Analyzing Mobility .........................................................257 4.3. The Role of Security and Service Restoration ............................................................261 4.4. The Role of Resource Allocation .....................................................................................263 4.5. The Role of Border Policies ...............................................................................................266 4.6. Concluding Remarks ..........................................................................................................267 References ...........................................................................................................................................269 Annexes ................................................................................................................................................277 Annexes for Chapter 2 ................................................................................................................279 Annexes for Chapter 3 ................................................................................................................288 Annexes for Chapter 4 ................................................................................................................303 Endnotes................................................................................................................................................313 Acknowledgments This study was prepared by a multidisciplinary World Bank team led by Harun Onder (TTL, Senior Economist, WB) and Haneen Sayed (Co-TTL, Lead Operations Officer, WB). Inputs from the UNHCR were prepared by a team led by Sima Kanaan (Senior Development Adviser, UNHCR). The project was implemented under the guidance of Kevin Carey (Practice Manager, WB). Contributing authors are as follows: INTRODUCTION: Harun Onder (Senior Economist, WB), Georgia Christina 5 Kosmidou (Consultant, WB), Ray Salvatore Jennings (Consultant, WB), Atsushi Iimi (Senior Economist, WB), Mira Morad (Transport Specialist, WB), Eyup Ozveren (Consultant, Middle East Technical University), and Sajjad Ali Shah Sayed (Manager, WB). CHAPTER 1: Roger Zetter (Consultant, Oxford University), Ray Salvatore Jennings (Consultant, WB), Sima Kanaan (Senior Development
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