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The World Is Getting Smaller, but Not the Opportunities

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The World Is Getting Smaller, but Not the Opportunities 30 BARRON'S March 26, 2007 March 26, 2007 BARRON'S 31 Satoru Iwata Richard Fuld Who says socialized medicine doesn’t pay? Shares of 13 companies that are contractors Nintendo, CEO since ’02. Lehman Brothers, CEO since ’94 for the VA have produced very robust returns over the past two years. Why: Teaching the House of Game Boy to grow up Why: Turning a bond shop into an elite investment bank ittle more than a year ago,THE it looked like WORLD game-over for Nin- IS Ltendo as Microsoft and Sony duked it out over the next gen- eet Mr. Wall Street. A Lehman Brothers lifer who joined the eration of gamingGETTING consoles. Iwata, 47, changed SMALLER, all that with Wii BUT Mfirm in 1969, Fuld brings passion and competitiveness that (pronounced we, not why). The strikingly innovative console con- are powerful even by Street standards. verts body motions like the swing of a tennis racquet into ac- Thank Fuld for saving Lehman, which nearly lost its storied iden- tions on a screen.NOT Meanwhile, THE Ninten- OPPORTUNITIES. tity as part of American Express in the NTDOY ADR / OTC $40 late 1980s and early 1990s. Since its LEH / NYSE $90 do’s Brain Age, aimed at boomers Annualized Price Change Annualized Price Change spinoff in 1994, Fuld has made the 75 fearful of losing mental acuity, has be- One Year 82.5% 30 One Year 0.5% bond specialist into a rival to Goldman While CEO 25.4% come one of America’s top-selling While CEO 15.4% 60 S&P 500 7.9% Sachs and Morgan Stanley. S&P 500 11.2% games. Result: Kyoto, Japan-based 20 2007 P/E 33.2 2007 P/E 10.0 Nintendo’s earnings are jumping and A tough former trader Fuld, 60, has 45 5-Yr. Profit Growth 3.0% 5-Yr. Profit Growth 33.0% its cash hoard has swelled to more 10 developed the polish to woo corporate 30 than $6 billion. 2005 2006 ’07 clients. Last year, Lehman was the ad- 2005 2006 ’07 Iwata, a former game developer, says his strategy is simple: viser to AT&T on its $86 billion purchase of BellSouth, one of larg- “We are not fighting against other companies—we are fighting against ignorance of video est takeovers ever. games.” Certainly, no one is in the dark anymore about Nintendo’s potential. —Leslie P. Norton Lehman’s stock is up 20-fold since ’94. That’s good news for employees, who own 30% of the company. And here’s some even better news: Fuld has no plans to retire. —A.B. Steven Jobs Fred Goodwin Apple, CEO since ’97 Royal Bank of Scotland, CEO since ’00 Why: As he goes, so goes Apple Why: Adding a touch of tartan to the color of global money obs is arguably more important to investors than any CEO in fter raising dividends by 15% or more for 14 straight years, what JAmerica. He’s so connected to the fate of Apple that even fund Adoes a Scottish CEO do for an encore? If you’re Goodwin, you managers who love the shares have been known to hedge their crank up your business in America and Asia. bets by taking sizable short positions on the chance he leaves. For years, Goodwin made his name on rigorous cost-cutting and They think the shares could plunge by 20% or more if something by melding numerous acquisitions into the giant lender that Royal Bank is today. Now his Edinburgh-based were to happen to the iconic leader. $100 £21 AAPL / NNM RBS / UK That puts the man’s stock market capi- Annualized Price Change institution wants to be a major corporate Annualized Price Change 75 talization at $16 billion-plus. One Year 23.5% banker in the U.S., competing with the One Year 5.2% 19 Jobs indeed has faced some peril in While CEO 33.5% 50 likes of Citigroup and Bank of America. While CEO 16.6% S&P 500 6.5% S&P 500 0.7% a messy options-backdating probe that That means getting more out of its 17 2007 P/E 25.9 2007 P/E 9.6 is still under way. But that doesn’t 25 U.S.-based Citizens Bank, which has 5-Yr. Profit Growth 60.0% 5-Yr. Profit Growth 23.6% seem to have slowed him down in the 0 posted flat results. But Goodwin is surely 15 slightest. Through the ever-expanding 2005 2006 ’07 up to the job: He has a knack for coaxing 2005 2006 ’07 line of iPods, the new Mac personal computers and the forthcom- double-digit growth from his businesses. Last year, total net climbed ing iPhones, Steve Jobs is setting the agenda for Silicon Valley, Hollywood and the global wire- 15%, to £6.2 billion. Meanwhile, Goodwin’s once-criticized investment in the Bank of China looks The Picture of Health less communications industry. Has $16 billion ever gone so far? —Mark Veverka set to produce the kind of returns his shareholders are accustomed to. —Vito J. Racanelli Over the past two years, shares of these Veterans Affairs contractors rose twice as much, on average, as the overall market. Henning Kagermann Jeffrey Immelt SAP, CEO since ’03 General Electric, CEO since ’01 Why: Adroitly steered a giant through turbulent times Why: Building an even stronger giant than the one he inherited. agermann’s return engagement on our list almost marked his eff Immelt has accomplished much since succeeding Jack Klast hurrah. The charming, understated CEO was expected to re- JWelch six years ago. GE’s earnings have nearly doubled, to $21 tire at the end of this year, but his contract has just been extended, billion, while Immelt has engineered an overhaul, buying high-re- meaning he’ll run the world’s largest business-software company turn businesses in areas like health-care and shedding low-return through May of 2009. That’s good for SAP: He ably led the German reinsurance and life insurance units. GE is now heavily invested in giant through the post-bubble dol- aircraft engines and power generation, SAP ADR / NYSE $60 GE / NYSE $40 drums and took advantage of the disrup- Annualized Price Change as well as water, wind and other envi- Annualized Price Change tions caused by Oracle’s takeover of Peo- One Year -18.9% 50 ronmentally promising products. One Year 6.2% 35 pleSoft, Siebel Systems and others. While CEO 11.2% Immelt’s GE is stronger than While CEO -0.2% S&P 500 12.6% S&P 500 5.9% Now that Oracle’s consolidation strat- 40 Welch’s GE. The business mix is better, 30 2007 P/E 17. 8 2007 P/E 15.7 egy is bearing fruit, Kagermann may have earnings quality is higher, and double- 5-Yr. Profit Growth 26.9% 5-Yr. Profit Growth 10.0% to reconsider his staunch aversion to big 30 digit annual profit growth is more 25 deals and do some shopping of its own. 2005 2006 ’07 achievable. 2005 2006 ’07 And, while Web-based upstarts like Salesforce.com are making serious But Immelt’s GE share performance can’t match Welch’s. At inroads in corporate software services, SAP’s own attempts to develop such products have been around 35, the stock is about where it stood when he took over. Part of that reflects the lackluster. Our guess: Kagermann will rise to the occasion and fully earn his gold watch. —M.V. stock’s hefty price-earnings ratio in 2001. Before too long, Immelt’s accomplishments ought to start getting more recognition on Wall Street. —A.B..
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