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Capturing Value in a Challenging Environment

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Capturing Value in a Challenging Environment CapturingCapturing ValueValue inin aa ChallengingChallenging EnvironmentEnvironment FredFred GoodwinGoodwin GroupGroup ChiefChief ExecutiveExecutive Capturing Value in a Challenging Environment What Challenges, What Impact? C Uncertain economic outlook income/provisions? C Lower equity markets income? C Increased competition income/margins? Slide 2 Capturing Value in a Challenging Environment What is our Goal? C Generating superior sustainable value for our shareholders C To achieve this we need to add value for: – Our customers – Our people Slide 3 Capturing Value in a Challenging Environment How? C Income growth C Improving efficiency C Good credit quality Slide 4 Income Growth Average Growth in Income 1992 - 1999 RBS Bank of Scotland Abbey National HSBC Standard Chartered Halifax Woolwich Lloyds TSB Barclays NatWest Alliance & Leicester 0 5 10 15 20 % pa Income excluding exceptional items Slide 5 Income Growth Average Growth in Income 1999 - 2002 RBS HBOS HSBC Lloyds TSB Barclays Standard Chartered Alliance & Leicester Abbey National 0 5 10 15 20 Income excluding exceptional items % pa HBOS 1999 income: Halifax income for 1999 plus Bank of Scotland income for year to 28 February 2000 Slide 6 Income Growth Income Pro forma 1999 2002 Change £m £m Corporate Banking and Financial Markets 4,459 6,052 +36% Retail Banking 3,305 4,193 +27% Retail Direct 971 1,590 +64% Manufacturing – – – Wealth Management 782 907 +16% Direct Line Group 896 2,139 +139% Ulster Bank 379 520 +37% Citizens 576 1,716 +198% Central items (303) (302) 0% Total income 11,065 16,815 +52% Slide 7 Income Growth Pro forma 1999 2002 Change Change £m £m £m Total income 11,065 16,815 +5,750 +52% Components of Income Growth £m % Total NatWest transaction benefits +712 12% Acquisitions since NatWest +1,036 18% Organic growth +4,002 70% Total +5,750 100% Slide 8 Income Growth But what about the Challenging Environment? C Uncertain economic outlook C Lower equity markets C Increased competition Slide 9 Uncertain Economic Outlook % Growth 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Real GDP Actual Actual Actual F’cast F’cast US 3.8 0.3 2.4 2.3 3.6 UK 3.1 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.4 Germany 2.9 0.6 0.2 0.5 1.7 Japan 2.8 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.8 Source: Consensus Forecasts, 7 April 2003 Slide 10 Uncertain Economic Outlook 2002 Income £16,815m United States 16% Europe 4% Rest of World 1% United Kingdom 79% Slide 11 Lower Equity Markets % Change Peak from Peak Date to 25 Apr 03 US -41% Mar 2000 UK -44% Dec 1999 Germany -65% Mar 2000 Japan -80% Dec 1989 Source: Datastream, US S+P 500, UK FTSE 100, German Dax 30, Japan Nikkei 225 Slide 12 Lower Equity Markets Activity RBS Involvement Wealth management Some Mergers and acquisitions None Equity trading and sales None Fund management Negligible Life insurance Limited (joint ventures) Slide 13 Increased Competition Level of Competition C UK personal banking C UK small business banking C UK corporate banking C UK general insurance C UK private banking C UK offshore banking C US retail banking Slide 14 Increased Competition Examples of UK Personal Banking New Entrants C Scottish Widows Bank 1995 C Goldfish 1996 C Sainsbury’s Bank 1997 C Tesco Personal Finance (RBS JV) 1997 C Egg 1998 C Standard Life Bank 1998 C Marbles 1999 C Smile 1999 C Cahoot 2000 C Intelligent Finance 2000 C Zurich Bank 2001-03 Slide 15 Increased Competition RBS Net Interest Margin % 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1H00 2H00 1H01 2H01 1H02 2H02 Slide 16 ”Headroom” for Growth UK Market Shares RBS + Other Total NatWest RBS RBS Current accounts 21% – 21% Savings accounts 6% 2% 8% Personal loans 6% 4% 10% Mortgages 4% 1% 5% Credit cards – 17% 17% Life insurance 2% – 2% Motor insurance – 16% 16% Home insurance 1% 6% 7% Small business relationships 30% – 30% Corporate lead relationships 33% – 33% Source: NOP 2002, NFO 2002, RBS estimates Slide 17 Capturing Value in a Challenging Environment How? C Income growth C Improving efficiency C Good credit quality Slide 18 Improving Efficiency Cost:Income Ratio 1992 - 2002 % 60 RBS RBS + NatWest 50 40 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Slide 19 Improving Efficiency UK Banks 2002 Cost:Income Ratios % RBS 45.6 HBOS 46.5 Lloyds TSB 50.0 Standard Chartered 52.9 Abbey National 53.5 Barclays 53.7 HSBC 55.0 Alliance & Leicester 56.1 Excluding exceptional items, goodwill amortisation and integration costs Slide 20 Improving Efficiency RBS Cost:Income Ratio Income Costs Ratio £m £m % 2002 results 16,815 7,669 45.6% Transaction benefits achieved 712 1,154* Sub-total 16,103 8,823 Full transaction benefits 890 1,310* Illustrative total 16,993 7,513 44.2% * Cost savings less costs of income benefits Slide 21 Improving Efficiency C Further progress possible C Continue to centralise Manufacturing, where appropriate C Eliminate duplication, simplify processes C Specific objectives with income/cost benefits C Self-financing programme C Largely insulated from the environmental challenges Slide 22 Capturing Value in a Challenging Environment How? C Income growth C Improving efficiency C Good credit quality Slide 23 Credit Quality Group Risk Assets by Credit Grade 1 2 3 4 Dec 2002 5 Dec 2001 0 102030405060% Exposures net of provisions Slide 24 Credit Quality Group Risk Assets by Geographic Area United Kingdom North America Europe Rest of World Dec 2002 Dec 2001 0 102030405060% Slide 25 Credit Quality Group Risk Assets by Industry Sector Personal Banks Financial Services Public Sector & Quasi-Govt Commercial Property Manufacturing Transport & Storage Professional Services/Leasing Wholesale/Retail Trade Hotels/Tourism/Restaurants Building/Const ruct ion Ut ilities Leisure/Recreational Agriculture Dec 2002 Telecommunications Mining/Quarrying Dec 2001 Other 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 % Slide 26 Uncertain Economic Outlook Risk Elements in Lending and Potential Problem Loans as Percentage of Loans and Advances to Customers % 3 2 1 0 Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 Slide 27 Acquisitions £bn 2001 2002 2003 2004 Gross capital generated 3.5 4.2 Less non-recurring items: Integration costs 0.6 0.7 0.1 – AVS dividends 0.4 0.8 1.5 – Total non-recurring items 1.0 1.5 1.6 – Net capital generated* 2.5 2.7 * Profit attributable to ordinary shareholders before goodwill amortisation Slide 28 Acquisitions C Not essential C Could be in US, Continental Europe or UK C Could be small, medium or large C Maintain bias towards lower volatility C Meet Group hurdle rate C If suitable acquisitions not available, consider share buy back Slide 29 Capturing Value in a Challenging Environment RBS Outlook C Continuing superior income growth 4 C Continuing efficiency improvement 4 C Maintaining stable credit risk 4 C Maintaining bias towards lower volatility 4 C Maintaining options for future growth 4 Slide 30 Capturing Value in a Challenging Environment Conclusion We remain well positioned to continue to capture value in a challenging environment Slide 31 CapturingCapturing ValueValue inin aa ChallengingChallenging EnvironmentEnvironment FredFred GoodwinGoodwin GroupGroup ChiefChief ExecutiveExecutive.
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